#6
The San Diego Padres continued to spend more than almost any other team this offseason. Will they get over the hump and win a World Series in 2023?
#6 - 2nd in NL West, WILD CARD, lose in NLDS
MIH - Manny Machado
MIP - Yu Darvish
PTW - C.J. Abrams
2022 Results
#4 - 89-73, 2nd in NL West, WILD CARD, lost in NLCS
Highest WAR (Position) - Manny Machado
Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Yu Darvish
The 2022 San Diego Padres could be summed up with three players: one was one of the best in the league, one never showed up, and one showed up mid-season. First, Manny Machado may have had his best season ever, earning a runner up finish in the MVP race. Second, Fernando Tatis Jr. got hurt before the season started in a motorcycle accident, and right before he was ready to return, got suspended for PED's, potentially tainting an entire career of one of baseball's brightest young stars. Third, the Padres showed they are willing to continue to double down by trading for one of the best hitters in the game Juan Soto at the Trade Deadline. They rode the talent on the field to the NLCS, but no one was beating the Phillies in their run to the NL pennant.
Additions / Subtractions
Just when you think the Padres may have reached their limit in payroll, they doubled down again. They seemed to be in on every big name free agent, finally landing shortstop Xander Bogaerts on (another) huge deal. They signed Manny Machado to an extension that was (another) huge deal. They solidified the rotation with Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha. Then, as if they didn't have enough already, they went to the veteran market and picked up Nelson Cruz and Matt Carpenter. There were a couple subtractions, like Jurickson Profar, Wil Myers, Sean Manaea, and Mike Clevinger, but I think the additions outweigh the subtractions.
Most Important Hitter
Fernando Tatis Jr.
One of the most fascinating storylines in all of baseball entering the 2023 season is what will happen with Fernando Tatis Jr. The last time we saw him, he was an MVP candidate, leading the league in home runs, and earning every bit of his newly signed 14 year megadeal. However, even then his durability and overall health were being questioned as he was starting to see some time in the outfield to protect the wear and tear on his body. Then he gets hurt making a dumb decision. Then he compounds that by getting caught for PED's. Then the Padres go out and sign another shortstop to an 11 year deal. Now Tatis will have to wait another month before he finally is allowed back from his suspension, and he essentially has lost his job. He finished 2021 as possibly the face of baseball. Now he is being looked at as, at best, the 4th best player on his team. What will he be this year? How much did PED's possibly impact his past performance, or was it another dumb decision during his injury recovery? Who is this player??? He's only 23 year old too! Does he go back to his MVP-caliber 2021 form? If he does, the Padres will be special. Is he put off by losing his job, switching positions, and still sitting out? If so, he could be a negative influence in that locker room that destroys one of the most talented teams in the league. No one knows! Watching what happens with Tatis will be one of the biggest storylines of the entire season.
Most Important Pitcher
Blake Snell
The Padres will roll out possibly the best lineup in all of baseball in 2023, however their pitching staff has a lot more questions in it. One of the players that could be an X-factor for the whole pitching staff in Blake Snell. In 2018, Snell was on another planet for the Rays. He had a 217 ERA+ that year and won the Cy Young. Since then, he hasn't even sniffed that level of production. His best season since was the COVID-shortened 2020 season with a 127 ERA+. Last season was next best at 111 ERA+, but he only threw 128 innings. Now he is entering his third season with the Padres, which is also his contract year at age 30. If he can return to some level of dominance, it not only will solve a lot of possible questions with the Padres pitching staff, but it will also earn him one last big payday heading into free agency next offseason.
Prospect to Watch
Jay Groome
With all the big spending and blockbuster trades the Padres have done the last few seasons, it has completely depleted their farm system. Ranked in the bottom third of MLB farm systems, the Padres only tout 2 prospects in the Top 100, with neither ready to contribute this season. In fact, only 2 prospects in their top 10 even have a chance to play in the big leagues this season. The more intriguing of these prospects in their 9th best prospect, Jay Groome. When drafted in 2016, this 6'6" 262lb left-handed pitcher was thought to be one of the top prospects in the draft. Then injuries and missed time completely derailed his development to the point that the Padres acquired him as an afterthought last season from the Red Sox in the Eric Hosmer trade. He stuff isn't elite, but he still has pretty good makeup. Look for him to get a chance to earn a rotation spot if the injury bug hits the Padres this season.
2023 Prediction
2nd in NL West, WILD CARD, lose in NLDS
It might be a hot take to have the Padres this low, but there are just way too many elite National League teams. With that said, the Padres are probably the most talented team in the league. They also feel like they could completely implode on themselves. They do have one of the best managers around in Bob Melvin, and they have basically a player/coach at this point in Nelson Cruz. So hopefully that stabilizes some of the volatility. There are still a lot of questions with their rotation. When they win the division and go on to win the World Series, this will look like a really bad take, but it's what I'm going with right now.
Fearless Prediction
One of the Padres superstars will not be on their roster at the start of the 2024 season.
The spending has to stop at some point, right? Right?!? They have paid out huge money to Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Yu Darvish. However, they have yet to lock up Juan Soto beyond this season. He might need the biggest contract of all of them. I could see the Padres let him walk in free agency ... or maybe they sign him and trade Tatis ... or maybe they trade Soto mid-season to get something for him ... or maybe they just double down one more time and sign Soto and just keep it all. They have to run out of money at some point though ... I think.
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