2023 Pre-Season Profile: San Diego Padres

 #6

The San Diego Padres continued to spend more than almost any other team this offseason.  Will they get over the hump and win a World Series in 2023?

2022 Predictions

#6 - 2nd in NL West, WILD CARD, lose in NLDS

MIH - Manny Machado

MIP - Yu Darvish

PTW - C.J. Abrams

2022 Results

#4 - 89-73, 2nd in NL West, WILD CARD, lost in NLCS

Highest WAR (Position) - Manny Machado

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Yu Darvish

The 2022 San Diego Padres could be summed up with three players: one was one of the best in the league, one never showed up, and one showed up mid-season.  First, Manny Machado may have had his best season ever, earning a runner up finish in the MVP race.  Second, Fernando Tatis Jr. got hurt before the season started in a motorcycle accident, and right before he was ready to return, got suspended for PED's, potentially tainting an entire career of one of baseball's brightest young stars.  Third, the Padres showed they are willing to continue to double down by trading for one of the best hitters in the game Juan Soto at the Trade Deadline.  They rode the talent on the field to the NLCS, but no one was beating the Phillies in their run to the NL pennant.

Additions / Subtractions

Just when you think the Padres may have reached their limit in payroll, they doubled down again.  They seemed to be in on every big name free agent, finally landing shortstop Xander Bogaerts on (another) huge deal.  They signed Manny Machado to an extension that was (another) huge deal.  They solidified the rotation with Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha.  Then, as if they didn't have enough already, they went to the veteran market and picked up Nelson Cruz and Matt Carpenter.  There were a couple subtractions, like Jurickson Profar, Wil Myers, Sean Manaea, and Mike Clevinger, but I think the additions outweigh the subtractions.

Most Important Hitter

Fernando Tatis Jr.

One of the most fascinating storylines in all of baseball entering the 2023 season is what will happen with Fernando Tatis Jr.  The last time we saw him, he was an MVP candidate, leading the league in home runs, and earning every bit of his newly signed 14 year megadeal.  However, even then his durability and overall health were being questioned as he was starting to see some time in the outfield to protect the wear and tear on his body.  Then he gets hurt making a dumb decision.  Then he compounds that by getting caught for PED's.  Then the Padres go out and sign another shortstop to an 11 year deal.  Now Tatis will have to wait another month before he finally is allowed back from his suspension, and he essentially has lost his job.  He finished 2021 as possibly the face of baseball.  Now he is being looked at as, at best, the 4th best player on his team.  What will he be this year?  How much did PED's possibly impact his past performance, or was it another dumb decision during his injury recovery?  Who is this player???  He's only 23 year old too!  Does he go back to his MVP-caliber 2021 form?  If he does, the Padres will be special.  Is he put off by losing his job, switching positions, and still sitting out?  If so, he could be a negative influence in that locker room that destroys one of the most talented teams in the league.  No one knows!  Watching what happens with Tatis will be one of the biggest storylines of the entire season.

Most Important Pitcher

Blake Snell

The Padres will roll out possibly the best lineup in all of baseball in 2023, however their pitching staff has a lot more questions in it.  One of the players that could be an X-factor for the whole pitching staff in Blake Snell.  In 2018, Snell was on another planet for the Rays.  He had a 217 ERA+ that year and won the Cy Young.  Since then, he hasn't even sniffed that level of production.  His best season since was the COVID-shortened 2020 season with a 127 ERA+.  Last season was next best at 111 ERA+, but he only threw 128 innings.  Now he is entering his third season with the Padres, which is also his contract year at age 30.  If he can return to some level of dominance, it not only will solve a lot of possible questions with the Padres pitching staff, but it will also earn him one last big payday heading into free agency next offseason.

Prospect to Watch

Jay Groome

With all the big spending and blockbuster trades the Padres have done the last few seasons, it has completely depleted their farm system.  Ranked in the bottom third of MLB farm systems, the Padres only tout 2 prospects in the Top 100, with neither ready to contribute this season.  In fact, only 2 prospects in their top 10 even have a chance to play in the big leagues this season.  The more intriguing of these prospects in their 9th best prospect, Jay Groome.  When drafted in 2016, this 6'6" 262lb left-handed pitcher was thought to be one of the top prospects in the draft.  Then injuries and missed time completely derailed his development to the point that the Padres acquired him as an afterthought last season from the Red Sox in the Eric Hosmer trade.  He stuff isn't elite, but he still has pretty good makeup.  Look for him to get a chance to earn a rotation spot if the injury bug hits the Padres this season.

2023 Prediction

2nd in NL West, WILD CARD, lose in NLDS

It might be a hot take to have the Padres this low, but there are just way too many elite National League teams.  With that said, the Padres are probably the most talented team in the league.  They also feel like they could completely implode on themselves.  They do have one of the best managers around in Bob Melvin, and they have basically a player/coach at this point in Nelson Cruz.  So hopefully that stabilizes some of the volatility.  There are still a lot of questions with their rotation.  When they win the division and go on to win the World Series, this will look like a really bad take, but it's what I'm going with right now.

Fearless Prediction

One of the Padres superstars will not be on their roster at the start of the 2024 season.

The spending has to stop at some point, right?  Right?!?  They have paid out huge money to Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Yu Darvish.  However, they have yet to lock up Juan Soto beyond this season.  He might need the biggest contract of all of them.  I could see the Padres let him walk in free agency ... or maybe they sign him and trade Tatis ... or maybe they trade Soto mid-season to get something for him ... or maybe they just double down one more time and sign Soto and just keep it all.  They have to run out of money at some point though ... I think.

2023 MLB Pre-Season Profile: Washington Nationals

 #29

The Washington Nationals may have won the World Series just 4 short years ago, but only a select few players are even left from that championship run.  Is the rebuild just starting, or can the Nats compete in 2023?

2022 Predictions

#24 - 5th in NL East

MIH - Josh Bell

MIP - Josiah Gray

PTW - Cade Cavalli

2022 Results

#30 - 55-107 - 5th in NL East

Highest WAR (Position) - Juan Soto

Highest WAR (Pitching) - Erasmo Ramirez

In just 3 years, the Nationals went from the top of the mountain to the bottom, earning the worst record in baseball.  They aren't even getting rewarded with the top draft pick thanks to the new draft lottery.  They also watched their once-in-a-generation superstar, Juan Soto, be traded mid-season to San Diego.  To show how bad they were last year, their top two players in WAR, Soto and Josh Bell, didn't even play for the Nats the last two months of the season.  Their top pitcher in terms of WAR was a swingman reliever.  The season went wrong in pretty much every way possible.

Additions / Subtractions

When the season goes that badly the year before, there is only one place left to go, and that's up.  There were not a ton of moves this offseason for the Nationals.  The main thing we saw is several veterans leave in free agency, like Nelson Cruz, Luke Voit, Cesar Hernandez, Anibal Sanchez, and Steve Cishek.  Basically, all the placeholders for younger players were sent out.  Brought in were a couple veterans looking for playing time and a fresh start in first baseman Dominic Smith, third baseman Jeimer Candelario, and outfielder Corey Dickerson.

Most Important Hitter

Joey Meneses

The Nationals have fully committed to the youth movement, with loads of highly-touted talent all over the field (much of which has been acquired recently in their blockbuster trades of Soto, Bell, Scherzer, and Turner).  However, every team needs surprises, and one of the few bright spots for the 2021 Nationals was Joey Meneses.  This 30 year old rookie seized an opportunity when the club cleaned house around the trade deadline and finished the season hitting .324 with 13 home runs and a 165 OPS+ in just 56 games.  Now, was this a fluke or a true diamond in the rough?  If Meneses can produce like this again in 2023, it will take a lot of pressure off the phenoms like Keibert Ruiz, C.J. Abrams, and Luis Garcia.

Most Important Pitcher

MacKenzie Gore

The Nationals still have some stars in their rotation like Patrick Corbin and Stephen Strasburg, who only pitched one game in 2022.  However, possibly the most important pitcher to the future of the Nationals is MacKenzie Gore.  Gore was one of the many gems brought back in the Juan Soto / Josh Bell deal.  This former top prospect had trouble getting opportunities in San Diego while also battling injuries.  Now, Gore finds himself with a fresh start and a team committed to giving guys like him every chance to thrive.  If he takes off this year, the Nats are a lot closer to making their way back to contending than originally thought.

Prospect to Watch

Cade Cavalli

The Nationals boast a strong farm system, with 4 prospects in the top 100 with Cade Cavalli the most big league ready at #58.  I try not to highlight the same prospect multiple years in a row, but the Nats have very few top prospects that have a chance to impact the big league club this season.  Cavalli is a 6'4" righty that made his big league debut in 2022, but an injury shut him down after just the one start.  He should make the Opening Day roster in the rotation and might be the next big ace for the Nats.

2023 Prediction

5th in NL East

Yes, the Nationals are in full rebuild mode.  They also play in possibly the toughest division in all of baseball.  The balanced schedule will help them out this season so they don't get beat up so much by the likes of the Mets, Braves, and Phillies.  It's still not going to be good though.  With that said, they have enough exciting talent that they will be a fun watch win or lose.

Fearless Prediction

The last of the remaining players from the 2019 World Series run will play their last games in a Nationals jersey in 2023.

This is a bit of a stretch, but not insane.  Strasburg and Corbin need to show they have the value to trade for them and their contracts.  The most unlikely to move is centerfielder Victor Robles, who is entering his age 26 season, however with only a few years left before free agency, a trade to make way for the next wave of kids isn't out of the question.  It could happen!

2021 Pre-Season Profile: Washington Nationals

 #12

The Washington Nationals followed up their World Series championship run in 2019 with a disappointing season in 2020.  Will a return to 162 games lead to success again for the Nats?

2020 Predictions

#16 - 4th in NL East

MIH - Juan Soto

MIP - Patrick Corbin

PTW - Carter Kieboom

2020 Results

#20 - 26-34, 4th in NL East

In 2019, the Nationals got off to a slow start before finishing strong, making the playoffs, and winning the World Series.  In 2020, the Nationals got off to a slow start and just about when they had gotten hot the year before, the shortened season ended with the team in 4th place.  Teams often have a down year after a championship run, but I am really curious what would have happened if they had a full season.

Additions / Subtractions

The Nationals treated this offseason like a team that is not far away from returning to a deep postseason run.  They upgraded first base by trading for Josh Bell from the Pirates.  They rounded out an already strong rotation with veteran arm Jon Lester.  They filled a hole in the outfield by signing slugger Kyle Schwarber.  They strengthened the back end of their bullpen by signing lefty Brad Hand.  They also got Ryan Zimmerman back after he opted out in 2020.  Every move made seemed to be an upgrade over the player that occupied that spot last season, whether it be Adam Eaton, Anibal Sanchez, or Howie Kendrick.

Most Important Hitter

Josh Bell

The Nationals boast one of the best leadoff hitters in the league in Trea Turner and one of, if not the, best hitter in baseball in Juan Soto.  These two just seem to be getting better and better too.  It seemed that the goal of the offseason seemed to be protection in the lineup for these two.  With young players like Carter Kieboom, Luis Garcia, and Victor Robles filling out a third of the lineup every day as players still trying to find their stride at the plate in the big leagues, they needed some veteran bats.  Enter Josh Bell and Kyle Schwarber.  Both are in similar places in their career.  Both have shown flashes of brilliance, and both have shown great struggles.  I went with Bell in this spot because he has hit higher heights, and the Nats invested more in Bell.  A switch-hitting slugging first baseman, Josh Bell made the All Star Team in 2019 during a season he hit 37 home runs and had a 142 OPS+.  In 2020, Bell was under a 100 OPS+ for the first time in his career while anchoring the worst lineup in the league.  Now he is expected to give that much needed protection to Turner and Soto while also hitting in a much deeper lineup.  If he bounces back to 2019 form, this could be a scary lineup.

Most Important Pitcher

Daniel Hudson

The Nationals still have one of the most talented starting rotations in the big leagues.  When you bring in Jon Lester to be your 4th starter behind Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Patrick Corbin, you know you have a strong rotation.  The Achilles heel for the Nats in this latest run has always been the bullpen.  In the 2019 postseason, they pitched their starters more than any other team to avoid having to use the bullpen as much as possible.  Now they are a little more established in the back end with Will Harris and Brand Hand.  The question is can Daniel Hudson be a reliable closer.  If he can, this bullpen should be good.  If he can't, Hand will probably take over the role, shortening the depth of the bullpen they built.

Prospect to Watch

Tim Cate

The Nationals were just ranked the worst farm system in baseball by MLB.com, boasting only one Top 100 prospect, and that is their most recent first round pick (and he is only coming in at #99).  Most of their system is nowhere near the big leagues.  The player most likely to have an impact on the big league roster in 2021 is pitcher Tim Cate.  This lefty is the 9th ranked player in the Nationals' system, and although he doesn't boast the plus velocity like many stud pitching prospects these days, he has the makeup of a guy that can be a back-end rotation option or a swing reliever able to pitch multiple innings.  A skill set like that can be helpful down the stretch of a pennant chase.

2021 Prediction

3rd in NL East

The Nationals are going to be back in the conversation in 2021.  They should be competitive again through a long season that did not involve a deep playoff run the year before.  Their young bats should take a step forward.  Their new additions should add some depth and pop to their lineup.  I really like the look of what the Nationals are bringing this season.  The problem is their division.  As I have said with the previous two entries from the NL East, this is one of the deepest and most competitive divisions in MLB history.  I see a scenario where the Nats win the division.  I also see a scenario where they finish in last.  And I could say the same for every team in the division.  The amount of talent the Nationals have, this feels about right.  They will be in the race in the last week of the season, but ultimately come up just short.

Fearless Prediction

Max Scherzer and Ryan Zimmerman will play their last games in a Nationals uniform in 2021.

2021 will probably see the end of an era in DC.  Max Scherzer is entering the last year of his 7 year contract he signed in 2015, and although it was a huge megadeal (that will still be paying Max for 7 more years thanks to deferred money) it might go down as one of the greatest contracts in baseball history.  He might move on after the 2021 season, but he will be remembered fondly in the nation's capital.  So will Ryan Zimmerman, who has been a part of the organization ever since they moved from Montreal.  His career is in its twilight, but he has been the face of the franchise for a very long time.  If this is his last year in Washington, it is because he will retire.  I doubt he will ever put on another uniform.

2019 Pre-Season Profile: Washington Nationals

#13

The Washington Nationals watched the face of their franchise leave through free agency over the offseason, however some think they might be better for it.  Will that be the case, or will the Nats take a step backward in 2019?

2018 Predictions

1st in NL East, lose in NLDS

2018 Results

82-80, 2nd in NL East

The Nationals have ruled this division for most of this decade, winning the division more times than not.  However, after two straight years of winning the division under Dusty Baker, they made a switch at manager hoping it would get them over the hump.  I predicted they would have a similar result as years past by winning the division but losing in the first round of the playoffs.  I didn't think any division competitors were going to be strong enough to challenge them.  I was wrong on several accounts.  First, the division was much more competitive than anyone thought.  Second, the Nats finished with their lowest win total since 2011.  For rookie manager Dave Martinez, 2018 was quite a disappointment.

Additions / Subtractions

What made 2018 a bigger disappointment was they couldn't make a good postseason run in Bryce Harper's last season in DC.  He moved on, signing his mega-deal in Philadelphia.  However, they didn't overreact and try to sign a different mega-deal to replace him.  They did sign the top free agent pitcher though in Patrick Corbin to join an already stout rotation.  He will take the place of departing Tanner Roark in the rotation.  The other moves were more minor but effective.  Out went catcher Matt Wieters, but in came Yan Gomes and Kurt Suzuki.  Veteran Brian Dozier was brought in to take second base.  Trevor Rosenthal and Kyle Barraclough were brought in to stabilize the back end of the bullpen.  So even though they may have lost Harper, the offseason looks like a mild success considering what they did accomplish.

Most Important Hitter

Juan Soto

One of the reasons the Nationals were okay watching Bryce Harper walk away from the organziation was the breakout season of Juan Soto.  At only 19, Juan Soto had a breakout season, coming up second in the Rookie of the Year race losing to the Braves Ronald Acuna.  Establishing another potential superstar in Soto made keeping their current one in Harper not quite as necessary.  However, that is a lot of pressure for the now 20 year old.  The sophomore slump is a real thing, but he can't have one.  He will be asked to continue to progress in to a superstar while taking up the mantle of "face of the franchise" that Harper left behind.

Most Important Pitcher

Sean Doolittle

Talk about a trade that worked out well for both sides!  In 2017, Sean Doolittle was traded from the A's to the Nationals for Blake Treinen.  I think both teams are happy with the results.  Treinen has become one of the most dominant closers in the league, and Doolittle has continued his strong production when he is on the field.  That is the problem though.  Doolittle has a tendency to get injured.  When he is healthy, there are few better, especially from the left hand side.  However, the Nats need him on the field for a full season.  The additions to the bullpen will be helpful insurance, but Doolittle is the one they want out there with the game on the line every day.

Prospect to Watch

Victor Robles

Reason #2 why the Nationals were okay watching Bryce Harper leave: Victor Robles.  Robles is the 4th best prospect in all of baseball behind only Vlad Jr., Tatis Jr., and Eloy Jimenez.  This 21 year old centerfielder is ready to break out, having made his debut last season in 21 games, but he was going to be without a spot in their outfield if Bryce came back.  Now, he will be patrolling center on Opening Day and is the frontrunner for Rookie of the Year entering the season.

2019 Prediction

3rd in NL East

I think the Nationals will actually be better this year than they were last year.  The problem is their division is a lot better than it was last year.  Their record should be slightly better than the .500 record they boasted last season, but they will be falling further behind in the standings with those around them getting that much better.  With the high expectations in DC though, no playoffs will be a huge disappointment for the second straight year.

Fearless Prediction

Manager Dave Martinez will be managing the Cubs in 2020.

The Nationals have been infamously impatient with their managers.  No Nationals manager has made it to three seasons since their first manager in DC, the late great Frank Robinson.  Every other manager either gets fired after two seasons or partway through their third.  Dave Martinez is entering that dreaded second season as the Nationals manager.  Dusty Baker was fired after two season of winning the division.  Dave Martinez will have no chance if he goes two straight seasons missing the playoffs altogether.  Combine that with the likely scenario that Joe Maddon is probably in his last season with the Cubs, and it seems like an obvious move for Dave Martinez, Maddon's former bench coach, to go back and manage the Cubs next season.