2024 Pre-Season Profile: Washington Nationals

 #29

The Washington Nationals are still rebuilding, but many of their highly-touted prospects are on the verge of a big league debut.  How long before they can contend again?

2023 Predictions

#29 - 5th in NL East

MIH - Joey Meneses

MIP - MacKenzie Gore

PTW - Cade Cavalli

FP - The last of the remaining players from the 2019 World Series run will play their last games in a Nationals uniform in 2023.

2023 Results

#26 - 71-91, 5th in NL West

Highest WAR (Position) - CJ Abrams

Highest WAR (Pitching) - Josiah Gray

The extend that the rebuild has gone since the 2019 World Series win is extensive and impressive.  The 2023 season was one of very little consequence or relevance for the Nationals.  In one of the most competitive divisions in baseball, they were locked in the cellar from the moment the season started.  It also saw the end of the Stephen Strasburg era as injuries forced him to retire.  However, there were sparks of promise from the likes of CJ Abrams, Stone Garrett, and Lane Thomas.  If only Patrick Corbin could pitch well, he could have been traded for more prospects.

Additions / Subtractions

The Nats took some fliers on some reclamation projects in the few off-season moves they made.  The master of the three true outcomes, Joey Gallo, will be contributing his 30 homers and and .150 average to the DC area in 2024.  The more interesting add is infielder Nick Senzel, once a top Reds prospect, now getting a fresh start after new top prospects left him without a job at the ripe old age of 28.

Most Important Hitter

Keibert Ruiz

One of the main prizes of the Max Scherzer trade a few years back, Keibert Ruiz has turned himself into one of the more promising young catchers in the league.  Now, entering his age 25 season, he is poised to take the next step and become a potential face of the franchise.

Most Important Pitcher

Patrick Corbin

Patrick Corbin turned a career year with the Diamondbacks in 2018 into a huge 6 year contract with the Nationals.  Despite being a major piece in the championship run in 2019, the Nationals would admit the contract has been an epic disappointment, being a below average pitcher the last 4 years and leading the league in losses each of the last 3 years.  Now he is entering his final year of his contract, and the only value he can provide the Nationals would be to show a version of his younger self in the early parts of the year so he would have some trade value at the Trade Deadline.  There's a good chance if he doesn't perform well enough to be traded, he might just be DFA'ed and see his career possibly come to an abrupt end.

Prospect to Watch

James Wood

Now for the exciting part of the Nationals!  Not only do they have some young talent already in their lineup like CJ Abrams and Keibert Ruiz, but they have more phenoms ready to burst on the scene as they sport the 14th best farm system in baseball.  The name baseball fans should get to know first is probably James Wood.  This 21 year old outfielder was a key piece the Padres sent in the Juan Soto trade of 2022, and now he is ready to show why.  Ranked the 12th best prospect in baseball, Wood is a 6'6" 234lb athlete that can crush the ball and outrun the best of them.  The only thing that could keep him from being the centerfielder of the future in DC is Dylan Crews, the 2nd overall pick last year that also could debut this season.

2024 Prediction

5th in NL East

If all their promise breaks out like they could, this could be the last season the Nationals spend in the cellar for awhile, which is saying something considering the division they are in.  There's a chance their lineup truly becomes elite by the end of the season, but their pitching will hold them back.  There's just no depth and much fewer reinforcements from their top prospects to help.

Fearless Prediction

MacKenzie Gore will be an All Star in 2024.

Another prize of the Juan Soto trade, along with CJ Abrams and James Wood, was MacKenzie Gore.  Good enough to be the 3rd overall pick on 2017 out of high school, Gore has yet to show much of the promise everyone expected.  With that said, 2023 did show some progress, having a 2 win season and almost being league average.  He's only entering his age 25 season.  There's a chance this is the year Gore puts it all together and shows why he was a top pick, a top prospect, and such a valuable trade chip.

2023 MLB Pre-Season Profile: Washington Nationals

 #29

The Washington Nationals may have won the World Series just 4 short years ago, but only a select few players are even left from that championship run.  Is the rebuild just starting, or can the Nats compete in 2023?

2022 Predictions

#24 - 5th in NL East

MIH - Josh Bell

MIP - Josiah Gray

PTW - Cade Cavalli

2022 Results

#30 - 55-107 - 5th in NL East

Highest WAR (Position) - Juan Soto

Highest WAR (Pitching) - Erasmo Ramirez

In just 3 years, the Nationals went from the top of the mountain to the bottom, earning the worst record in baseball.  They aren't even getting rewarded with the top draft pick thanks to the new draft lottery.  They also watched their once-in-a-generation superstar, Juan Soto, be traded mid-season to San Diego.  To show how bad they were last year, their top two players in WAR, Soto and Josh Bell, didn't even play for the Nats the last two months of the season.  Their top pitcher in terms of WAR was a swingman reliever.  The season went wrong in pretty much every way possible.

Additions / Subtractions

When the season goes that badly the year before, there is only one place left to go, and that's up.  There were not a ton of moves this offseason for the Nationals.  The main thing we saw is several veterans leave in free agency, like Nelson Cruz, Luke Voit, Cesar Hernandez, Anibal Sanchez, and Steve Cishek.  Basically, all the placeholders for younger players were sent out.  Brought in were a couple veterans looking for playing time and a fresh start in first baseman Dominic Smith, third baseman Jeimer Candelario, and outfielder Corey Dickerson.

Most Important Hitter

Joey Meneses

The Nationals have fully committed to the youth movement, with loads of highly-touted talent all over the field (much of which has been acquired recently in their blockbuster trades of Soto, Bell, Scherzer, and Turner).  However, every team needs surprises, and one of the few bright spots for the 2021 Nationals was Joey Meneses.  This 30 year old rookie seized an opportunity when the club cleaned house around the trade deadline and finished the season hitting .324 with 13 home runs and a 165 OPS+ in just 56 games.  Now, was this a fluke or a true diamond in the rough?  If Meneses can produce like this again in 2023, it will take a lot of pressure off the phenoms like Keibert Ruiz, C.J. Abrams, and Luis Garcia.

Most Important Pitcher

MacKenzie Gore

The Nationals still have some stars in their rotation like Patrick Corbin and Stephen Strasburg, who only pitched one game in 2022.  However, possibly the most important pitcher to the future of the Nationals is MacKenzie Gore.  Gore was one of the many gems brought back in the Juan Soto / Josh Bell deal.  This former top prospect had trouble getting opportunities in San Diego while also battling injuries.  Now, Gore finds himself with a fresh start and a team committed to giving guys like him every chance to thrive.  If he takes off this year, the Nats are a lot closer to making their way back to contending than originally thought.

Prospect to Watch

Cade Cavalli

The Nationals boast a strong farm system, with 4 prospects in the top 100 with Cade Cavalli the most big league ready at #58.  I try not to highlight the same prospect multiple years in a row, but the Nats have very few top prospects that have a chance to impact the big league club this season.  Cavalli is a 6'4" righty that made his big league debut in 2022, but an injury shut him down after just the one start.  He should make the Opening Day roster in the rotation and might be the next big ace for the Nats.

2023 Prediction

5th in NL East

Yes, the Nationals are in full rebuild mode.  They also play in possibly the toughest division in all of baseball.  The balanced schedule will help them out this season so they don't get beat up so much by the likes of the Mets, Braves, and Phillies.  It's still not going to be good though.  With that said, they have enough exciting talent that they will be a fun watch win or lose.

Fearless Prediction

The last of the remaining players from the 2019 World Series run will play their last games in a Nationals jersey in 2023.

This is a bit of a stretch, but not insane.  Strasburg and Corbin need to show they have the value to trade for them and their contracts.  The most unlikely to move is centerfielder Victor Robles, who is entering his age 26 season, however with only a few years left before free agency, a trade to make way for the next wave of kids isn't out of the question.  It could happen!

2021 Pre-Season Profile: San Diego Padres

 #9

The San Diego Padres were one of the most exciting young teams in all of baseball in 2020, and they followed that up with the most exciting offseason of any team in the league.  Will all that excitement lead to a deep postseason run in 2021?

2020 Predictions

#19 - 3rd in NL West

MIH - Manny Machado

MIP - Garrett Richards

PTW - MacKenzie Gore

2020 Results

#3 - 37-23, 2nd in NL West, lost in NLDS

Everyone knew the Padres were on the verge of being a contender for several years now.  They had built up an elite farm system and were surrounding that young talent with some great veteran stars.  It was just a matter of when.  In a shortened season like 2020, I didn't see the jump happening, but it did.  Slam Diego became must-see TV, with mid-season trades for pitcher Mike Clevinger, catcher Aaron Nola, and closer Trevor Rosenthal showing they were ready to commit to this team's success.  But the couldn't win the division, despite the third best record in all of baseball, thanks to the Dodgers.  And they couldn't advance far in the postseason thanks to the Dodgers.  There's a theme here...

Additions / Subtractions

You would think a team coming off such a huge successful year like this with a farm system bursting with talent might let their talent naturally take the next step forward.  Not the Padres!  They saw that Dodger superteam in front of them and tooled up to try and take them down.  So instead they used their farm system to trade for Blake Snell, Yu Darvish, and Joe Musgrove to make their rotation elite (and to make up for the injury to Mike Clevinger).  They signed reliever Mark Melancon to replace Trevor Rosenthal in the back of the bullpen.  The only real addition to the lineup was a move for depth, adding Korean standout infielder Ha-Seong Kim.  They also locked up their young superstar, Fernando Tatis Jr., through 2034!  I didn't know it was possible for the third best team in baseball to improve this much.

Most Important Hitter

Fernando Tatis Jr.

He is the league's next superstar.  He is possibly the next face of the sport.  He just signed a 14 year megadeal.  He is the 22 year old leader of the most exciting team in baseball.  He's also never played more than 84 games in a season at the big league level.  For as amazing and potentially legendary Tatis Jr. is, there are still some serious question marks heading into 2021.  He finished 3rd for Rookie of the Year in 2019, playing only 84 games due to injury.  He finished 4th in MVP in the COVID-shortened 2020 season, playing in 59 of the team's 60 games.  How will his young body hold up under 162?  All indications are that this isn't a problem, but he's never done it.  If he is able to put in a full season, all those expectations put on his back will be completely justified.

Most Important Pitcher

Blake Snell

The Padres paid a big price to bring Blake Snell in, but his career has shown some inconsistencies that make this move somewhat risky.  In 2018, Snell was out of this world, winning the Cy Young with 21 wins, a 1.89 ERA, and a ridiculous 217 ERA+.  In 2019, he struggled with some injuries and was barely above average.  In 2020, he bounced back with a strong season, but nowhere near his 2018 production.  The lasting image of 2020 was him being taken out of the final World Series game despite his complete dominance of the Dodger lineup.  The Rays wouldn't let him be a workhorse like he wanted to be, which is partially why it made sense to trade him away.  Now the Padres will probably let him be that workhorse, but can he handle it?  Even in his Cy Young year of 2018, he only pitched 180 innings.  He is coming off an injury season in 2019 and a shortened season in 2020.  Can his arm handle to workload and the pressure of what the Padres want from him?

Prospect to Watch

MacKenzie Gore

Like I said, the Padres have been using their farm system more to acquire established talent than to directly impact the big league roster.  With that said, the Padres still rank as the 6th best farm system in baseball, with 4 players in the Top 100 Prospects.  The best of these players, and probably the only untouchable prospect in their system, is MacKenzie Gore.  This lefty was my Prospect to Watch last season, and if it were a full regular season, you can be sure we would have seen him.  Everyone assumed he would have a spot in the rotation for 2021, but then the Padres went and traded for a bunch of aces.  Now their 2020 Opening Day starter barely has a spot.  With all that said, barring an injury MacKenzie Gore will play a role on the 2021 Padres at some point.  With the jump back up to 162 games, look for him to be brought up at some point to add more depth to the rotation and never look back.

2021 Prediction

2nd in NL West, lose in Wild Card Game

The San Diego Padres might have the 2nd best roster in all of baseball entering 2021.  They might be the most exciting team to watch this season with all their young talent and trades.  I will be rooting for them because they are a fun breath of fresh air.  The problem is if they have the 2nd best roster, the best roster is in their division.  That means that they will be stuck getting a Wild Card spot even though they could easily win over 100 games.  As of right now, we are back to the old playoff format, which means one Wild Card Game to make the divisional round.  I would take the Padres in almost any playoff series, but with how I have the playoffs predicted shaking out I don't like the matchup in a one game playoff.  So I see this season ending in great disappointment for the Padres, but that won't change how exciting they will be to watch.

Fearless Prediction

The San Diego Padres will win the NL West in 2022.

As long as the Padres stay the course and don't blow up their roster after a possible disappointing end to 2021, I could see 2022 be the season where they overtake the Dodgers as the top team in the division and the top team in the league.  Will that lead to World Series appearances?  That remains to be seen, but this team is heading in the right direction for sure.