#9
The San Diego Padres were one of the most exciting young teams in all of baseball in 2020, and they followed that up with the most exciting offseason of any team in the league. Will all that excitement lead to a deep postseason run in 2021?
#19 - 3rd in NL West
MIH - Manny Machado
MIP - Garrett Richards
PTW - MacKenzie Gore
2020 Results
#3 - 37-23, 2nd in NL West, lost in NLDS
Everyone knew the Padres were on the verge of being a contender for several years now. They had built up an elite farm system and were surrounding that young talent with some great veteran stars. It was just a matter of when. In a shortened season like 2020, I didn't see the jump happening, but it did. Slam Diego became must-see TV, with mid-season trades for pitcher Mike Clevinger, catcher Aaron Nola, and closer Trevor Rosenthal showing they were ready to commit to this team's success. But the couldn't win the division, despite the third best record in all of baseball, thanks to the Dodgers. And they couldn't advance far in the postseason thanks to the Dodgers. There's a theme here...
Additions / Subtractions
You would think a team coming off such a huge successful year like this with a farm system bursting with talent might let their talent naturally take the next step forward. Not the Padres! They saw that Dodger superteam in front of them and tooled up to try and take them down. So instead they used their farm system to trade for Blake Snell, Yu Darvish, and Joe Musgrove to make their rotation elite (and to make up for the injury to Mike Clevinger). They signed reliever Mark Melancon to replace Trevor Rosenthal in the back of the bullpen. The only real addition to the lineup was a move for depth, adding Korean standout infielder Ha-Seong Kim. They also locked up their young superstar, Fernando Tatis Jr., through 2034! I didn't know it was possible for the third best team in baseball to improve this much.
Most Important Hitter
Fernando Tatis Jr.
He is the league's next superstar. He is possibly the next face of the sport. He just signed a 14 year megadeal. He is the 22 year old leader of the most exciting team in baseball. He's also never played more than 84 games in a season at the big league level. For as amazing and potentially legendary Tatis Jr. is, there are still some serious question marks heading into 2021. He finished 3rd for Rookie of the Year in 2019, playing only 84 games due to injury. He finished 4th in MVP in the COVID-shortened 2020 season, playing in 59 of the team's 60 games. How will his young body hold up under 162? All indications are that this isn't a problem, but he's never done it. If he is able to put in a full season, all those expectations put on his back will be completely justified.
Most Important Pitcher
Blake Snell
The Padres paid a big price to bring Blake Snell in, but his career has shown some inconsistencies that make this move somewhat risky. In 2018, Snell was out of this world, winning the Cy Young with 21 wins, a 1.89 ERA, and a ridiculous 217 ERA+. In 2019, he struggled with some injuries and was barely above average. In 2020, he bounced back with a strong season, but nowhere near his 2018 production. The lasting image of 2020 was him being taken out of the final World Series game despite his complete dominance of the Dodger lineup. The Rays wouldn't let him be a workhorse like he wanted to be, which is partially why it made sense to trade him away. Now the Padres will probably let him be that workhorse, but can he handle it? Even in his Cy Young year of 2018, he only pitched 180 innings. He is coming off an injury season in 2019 and a shortened season in 2020. Can his arm handle to workload and the pressure of what the Padres want from him?
Prospect to Watch
MacKenzie Gore
Like I said, the Padres have been using their farm system more to acquire established talent than to directly impact the big league roster. With that said, the Padres still rank as the 6th best farm system in baseball, with 4 players in the Top 100 Prospects. The best of these players, and probably the only untouchable prospect in their system, is MacKenzie Gore. This lefty was my Prospect to Watch last season, and if it were a full regular season, you can be sure we would have seen him. Everyone assumed he would have a spot in the rotation for 2021, but then the Padres went and traded for a bunch of aces. Now their 2020 Opening Day starter barely has a spot. With all that said, barring an injury MacKenzie Gore will play a role on the 2021 Padres at some point. With the jump back up to 162 games, look for him to be brought up at some point to add more depth to the rotation and never look back.
2021 Prediction
2nd in NL West, lose in Wild Card Game
The San Diego Padres might have the 2nd best roster in all of baseball entering 2021. They might be the most exciting team to watch this season with all their young talent and trades. I will be rooting for them because they are a fun breath of fresh air. The problem is if they have the 2nd best roster, the best roster is in their division. That means that they will be stuck getting a Wild Card spot even though they could easily win over 100 games. As of right now, we are back to the old playoff format, which means one Wild Card Game to make the divisional round. I would take the Padres in almost any playoff series, but with how I have the playoffs predicted shaking out I don't like the matchup in a one game playoff. So I see this season ending in great disappointment for the Padres, but that won't change how exciting they will be to watch.
Fearless Prediction
The San Diego Padres will win the NL West in 2022.
As long as the Padres stay the course and don't blow up their roster after a possible disappointing end to 2021, I could see 2022 be the season where they overtake the Dodgers as the top team in the division and the top team in the league. Will that lead to World Series appearances? That remains to be seen, but this team is heading in the right direction for sure.
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