We know about all we are going to know before the Oscar nominations are announced on Monday, March 15, so here are my final predictions for all categories! The Golden Globes only muddied the race, but now with the Critics Choice winners and those bizarre BAFTA nominations...we still know nothing. That's what makes this year so interesting. It is impossible to go chalk because there is no chalk.. Stay tuned after the nominations are announced for my Reactions to the Nominations article, as well as the Oscar Challenge!
BEST PICTURE
The Predicted Ten (I predict 8 will be nominated)
1. Nomadland (Chloe Zhao) - LOCK
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Aaron Sorkin) - LOCK
3. Minari (Lee Isaac Chung) - LOCK
4. Promising Young Woman (Emerald Fennell) - LOCK
5. Mank (David Fincher) - LOCK
6. Sound of Metal (Darius Marder) - Everything points to it being a near-lock in the way that Whiplash was, and it has been treated that way by most awards circuits. The BAFTA gave it enough love, and the PGA nom is telling.
7. One Night in Miami (Regina King) - It got really overlooked by BAFTA, but it has shown up everywhere else it needed to. With only one real chance at a major nomination, it could be further down this list than even this suggests.
8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (George C. Wolfe) - The BAFTA really didn’t care about this movie, but the PGA and lead acting love place it just barely in the field. I wouldn’t be surprised if this ends up with just a couple acting nominations and a couple artistic noms, but for now this seems like a safe spot.
9. Judas and the Black Messiah (Shaka King) - The momentum is building for the film, but it might just be too late. The love from the PGA and BAFTA is encouraging, but it still can’t seem to get singled out as being among the best pictures of the year.
10. News of the World (Paul Greengrass) - It is still the old-fashioned Oscar movie with Tom Hanks. In a field that is so annoyingly political and all covering basically the same issues, this could be the familiar choice that older members can get behind. Plus, it was one movie that refused to be a streamer.
Others in contention
11. The Father (Florian Zeller) - The BAFTA certainly helps its cause, but Olivia Colman was even left out. With the screener issues, I feel like it would almost be a surprise if it winds up in the field at this point.
12. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (Jason Woliner) - The PGA nomination and the Golden Globe wins keep this garbage in the race, but it really just can’t get the first place votes.
13. Da 5 Bloods (Spike Lee) - It continuously gets snubbed everywhere possible. It is basically dead at this point, but Spike Lee is a name that could pull a couple nominations out of nowhere.
BEST DIRECTOR
The Predicted Five
1. Chloe Zhao - Nomadland - LOCK
2. Lee Isaac Chung - Minari - After Zhao, we have a bunch of beloved films, but many of the directors are unknowns or making their first film. Chung seems like the safest bet, but it is hard to call him a true lock. His movie has shown up in all the right places where eligible.
3. David Fincher - Mank - The complete indifference toward the film from BAFTA hurts his chances, but he is Fincher. It is objectively one of the finest directions of the year, and like Tarantino last year, he should be recognized for his world-building achievements.
4. Aaron Sorkin - The Trial of the Chicago 7 - He should be a lock, but there is always a bias toward people who haven’t paid their dues as a director. Bradley Cooper in 2018, Denzel Washington in 2016, Ben Affleck in 2012...Sorkin could follow that path and still be the Best Picture winner.
5. Emerald Fennell - Promising Young Woman - I have no idea where to go from here. She got the DGA nomination, which is huge. The only thing is that Regina King was in the Debut Director category, so she probably wasn't competing for the top prize. It is between those two for this final spot.
Others in contention
6. Regina King - One Night in Miami - She is clearly beloved throughout the industry, but this is hard to see. They never nominate these types of smaller setting movies for Director, but this would be their blanket statement choice.
7. Spike Lee - Da 5 Bloods - Just because he is Spike Lee. His movie is a mess, but it is a Spike Lee Joint mess. In a year of craziness and knowing nothing, he could be a default space filler on a lot of ballots and make a run.
8. Paul Greengrass - News of the World - If the Oscars want something safe and familiar, they will vote for Greengrass. It is the only real traditional film with an epic scope in the running. It is basically True Grit, which got a host of nominations.
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. Chadwick Boseman - Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom - LOCK
2. Anthony Hopkins - The Father - LOCK
3. Riz Ahmed - Sound of Metal - LOCK
4. Steven Yeun - Minari - It would hurt if he gets snubbed, but he is the most vulnerable from that movie. There are a lot of actors making a late push, since there are so many more established actors in his way, he sits here just outside of lock status.
5. Gary Oldman - Mank - Something tells me he is getting snubbed. There are a host of great performances in that movie, and he fades to the background at times. It could really end up being De Niro in The Irishman.
Others in contention
6. Tahar Rahim - The Mauritanian - The Golden Globe and BAFTA nominations are head-scratching and absolutely huge for Rahim. He has been doing great work for over a decade now, and he would be a nice surprise if he takes this little seen movie all the way to the ceremony.
7. Delroy Lindo - Da 5 Bloods - He could be the Antonio Banderas nomination where he got snubbed by everyone, but he is so beloved as an actor that he somehow sneaks in at the last second. The problem is that his movie has almost no traction.
8. Mads Mikkelsen - Another Round - The BAFTA nomination is huge. He is a recognizable enough face, and he is obviously good enough to make a run at winning the thing. This is becoming more of a possibility by the day.
Tommy Lee Jones - In the Valley of Elah Shocker Nomination: Viggo Mortensen - Falling
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. Frances McDormand - Nomadland - LOCK
2. Viola Davis - Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom - LOCK
3. Vanessa Kirby - Pieces of a Woman - LOCK
4. Carey Mulligan - Promising Young Woman - The BAFTA snub is shocking, especially since she had two movies that were absolutely showered with nominations. I have said she is vulnerable all awards season, and it would be heartbreaking if this amazing role was left off in the end for not having an “Oscar scene”.
5. Sophia Loren - The Life Ahead - This is really just a stab. She is a legend, and she is in a movie that could easily have multiple other nominations. If they are looking for someone to fill out their ballot, this could be an easy choice. It is Netflix, so I’m sure people have seen it. It just feels like the category where we are going to get a real surprise.
Others in contention
6. Andra Day - The United States vs. Billie Holiday - Other than her jaw-dropping Globe win, she and her movie have been completely overlooked. She isn’t enough of a name to get in despite mediocre reviews. Plus, the movie, even though it is on Hulu, just doesn’t have any buzz anywhere.
7. Amy Adams - Hillbilly Elegy - The SAG nomination lets us know that actors love her and will nominate her for anything. The lingering feeling of an Arrival snub and then a ludicrous makeup nomination for Vice leave me dumbfounded with how she is evaluated. I could see her getting in, and I can see her movie getting 0 nominations.
Tommy Lee Jones - In the Valley of Elah Shocker Nomination: Yeri Han - Minari
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. Daniel Kaluuya - Judas and the Black Messiah - LOCK
2. Leslie Odom Jr. - One Night in Miami - LOCK
3. Sacha Baron Cohen - The Trial of the Chicago 7 - The BAFTA snub is lingering. He is close to a lock still, but there are so many flashy performances in that film that he could be left off or just get the screenplay nomination as a consolation.
4. Paul Raci - Sound of Metal - He has been in and out of all the important races, but he just gives the best supporting performance of the year. It will be hard to see him not getting enough votes, but not having SAG is alarming.
5. Mark Rylance - The Trial of the Chicago 7 - This fifth slot is wide open. I am going back to one of my original predictions. After seeing the movie, there was no doubt in my mind that he was getting nominated. He is a past winner and needs that second nomination.
Others in contention
6. Chadwick Boseman - Da 5 Bloods - He got nominated in the right places, but the Oscars are really hesitant to double nominate someone, especially for their first nomination. Jamie Foxx got that kind of love, but that is really where the list stops. He is right there in the running for that fifth spot.
7. Jared Leto - The Little Things - SAG and HFPA both nominated him for this movie that no one seems to really like. He is obviously a threat to get in here too, but getting a lone nomination in this category is not a common occurrence. He is similar to Rylance in that he needs that first nomination after his win.
8. Alan Kim - Minari - The BAFTA nomination and the Critics Choice Young Actor/Actress upset put him squarely in the race. I can’t sign off on it, but I would love to see it. He is adorable.
9. Glynn Turman / Colmon Domingo - Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom - Singling one of them out is kinda ridiculous, but both of them showed up on the Spirit Award nominations. The ensemble was nominated at SAG. If one of them gets in, then watch out for Ma Rainey to overperform as a whole at the Oscars.
10. Frank Langella - The Trial of the Chicago 7 - He is one of the standouts of the cast, and he is a legendary actor with just one nomination. It would be a surprise, but not a shocker.
11. David Strathairn - Nomadland - He is the second recognizable face in the Best Picture frontrunner. He does nothing, but sometimes that doesn’t matter. Name recognition for the one-time nominee could be enough.
Tommy Lee Jones - In the Valley of Elah Shocker Nomination: Stanley Tucci - Supernova
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. Yuh-Jung Youn - Minari - She is the safest contender, but she is still somehow not a lock. Everything points to her winning the same way that Alan Arkin did in 2006, but these types of performances don’t always follow through.
2. Maria Bakalova - Borat Subsequent Moviefilm - She has gotten every nomination she needs to, and has only really missed in her Golden Globe Best Actress race. It is an atrocious movie, and it is somewhat baffling that this unknown actress is getting singled out for her “performance” in it, but here we are. She is fine, but it never felt like an award-worthy performance. She is probably getting in, but maybe the Academy still has some standards and will think better of it.
3. Olivia Colman - The Father - She missed out on BAFTA, which is insane. Maybe the movie just doesn’t have the traction that it needs. She should probably be the frontrunner, but at this point we can’t even be sure of a nomination.
4. Glenn Close - Hillbilly Elegy - She may never actually win. She got snubbed by BAFTA, along with everyone else in this race. The movie is just not very good, and that could wind up costing her. She still needs to be here out of respect.
5. Ellen Burstyn - Pieces of a Woman - She has the scene. It is a short part, and she has missed almost everywhere, but this is the kind of role that shows up right at the last moment and gets nominated. Jacki Weaver in Silver Linings Playbook comes to mind.
Others in contention
6. Amanda Seyfried - Mank - She missed at SAG and BAFTA, which is brutal. I am starting to get some Mila Kunis in Black Swan vibes from how she is being treated. Maybe it is a little too soon to give her this kind of recognition in a movie that isn’t as beloved as it should be.
7. Helena Zengel - News of the World - SAG and the Golden Globes both gave her a nomination. I thought she would get in at BAFTA, but she missed. She also lost the Young Actor/Actress category. My gut still says she is getting nominated, but maybe the movie just doesn’t get in anywhere.
8. Dominique Fishback - Judas and the Black Messiah - It would be a bit of a head-scratcher, but with the BAFTA nom and the building momentum as people see the movie, it is becoming more of an option.
9. Jodie Foster - The Mauritanian - The Golden Globe winner is sitting this low. She isn’t all that great in the movie, nor is the movie all that great. The BAFTAs clearly loved it, but they failed to nominate her. Nothing makes sense.
Tommy Lee Jones - In the Valley of Elah Shocker Nomination: Vanessa Kirby - The World to Come
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Predicted Five
1. Promising Young Woman - Emerald Fennell - LOCK
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 - Aaron Sorkin -
3. Minari - Lee Isaac Chung - LOCK
4. Mank - Jack Fincher - LOCK
5. Judas and the Black Messiah - Shaka King, Will Berson, Kenneth Lucas, Keith Lucas - Of all the contenders for this fifth spot, this seems like the least interesting and safest choice. It is a broad movie that is a big mess, but there is a lot of flashy dialogue that will appeal to a lot of voters.
Others in contention
6. Sound of Metal - Darius Marder, Abraham Marder - It hasn’t gotten the nominations in this category that it really needs, but the movie has been steadily picking up more nominations throughout the last two months. This would be a beautiful inclusion.
7. Soul - Kemp Powers, Mike Jones, Pete Docter - Pixar usually gets in here with their best movies, and this is one of them. But this is a weird year. With a monster box office, this would have been a surefire nominee...but this is 2020.
8. Another Round - Thomas Vinterberg, Tobias Lindholm - This category is always open to foreign films. The huge BAFTA showing for the film makes this a possibility.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Predicted Five
1. Nomadland - Chloe Zhao - LOCK
2. The Father - Florian Zeller, Christopher Hampton - LOCK
3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom - Ruben Santiago-Hudson - The play adaptation thing is the only thing holding it back. It is very stagey, and that usually is the nail in the coffin in this category. It still is one of the frontrunners, just because we don’t have a lot of really prestigious writers or projects here like usual.
4. One Night in Miami - Kemp Powers - The screenplay is pretty bad, but it is easy to understand. It has flash and interesting characters, but other than that we are looking at a filler nominee. He should be getting nominated for Soul.
5. The Mauritanian - Rory Haines, Sohrab Noshirvani, Micahel Bronner - The movie has performed better than anyone really expected. This is the kind of movie that ends up getting nominated. Call it the Ides of March spot.
Others in contention
6. News of the World - Paul Greengrass, Luke Davies - It feels like a nominee, but it has missed on a lot of screenplay categories this season.
7. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm - 9 different writers - The WGA nomination and the movie’s baffling PGA nomination make this still a possibility. The original was nominated in this category as well. Do we really need 9 nominees from one movie? That seems a little ridiculous.
8. I’m Thinking of Ending Things - Charlie Kaufman - If the Academy wants to go back to an old faithful, this movie is sitting there waiting for some love. It is as creative of a movie that came out in 2020.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. Nomadland
2. Mank
3. News of the World
4. First Cow
5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
1. Mank
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
3. News of the World
4. Tenet
5. The Personal History of David Copperfield
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
1. Emma
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
3. Mank
4. Mulan
5. Ammonite
BEST SOUND
1. Sound of Metal
2. Tenet
3. Soul
4. Mank
5. Nomadland
BEST EDITING
1. Sound of Metal
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Nomadland
4.. Promising Young Woman
5. News of the World
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
1. Tenet
2. The Midnight Sky
3. Mank
4. Mulan
5. Welcome to Chechnya
BEST MAKEUP/HAIR
1. Hillbilly Elegy
2. Mar Rainey’s Black Bottom
3. Mank
4. Pinocchio
5. Emma
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
1. “Speak Now” - One Night in Miami
2. “Husavik” - Eurovision Song Contest
3. “Io Si” - The Life Ahead
4. “Fight for You” - Judas and the Black Messiah
5. “Turntables” - All In: The Fight for Democracy
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1. Soul
2. Mank
3. News of the World
4. Minari
5. The Trial of the Chicago 7
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1. Collective
2. Time
3. Boys State
4. The Mole Agent
5. Welcome to Chechnya
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
1. Soul
2. Wolfwalkers
3. Over the Moon
4. Onward
5. The Croods: A New Age
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
1. Another Round
2. Quo vadis, Aida?
3. Two of Us
4. La Lorona
5. Dear Comrades!
Predicted Nominations Count (2+)
Mank: 11 noms / 1 win
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom: 8 noms / 1 win
Nomadland: 7 noms / 5 wins
The Trial of the Chicago 7: 7 noms
Minari: 6 noms / 1 win
Sound of Metal: 5 noms / 2 wins
Promising Young Woman: 5 noms / 1 win
One Night in Miami: 4 noms /1 win
News of the World: 4 noms
Soul: 3 noms / 2 wins
Judas and the Black Messiah: 3 noms / 1 win
Tenet: 3 noms / 1 win
The Father: 3 noms
Emma: 2 noms / 1 win
Hillbilly Elegy: 2 noms / 1 win
The Life Ahead: 2 noms
Pieces of a Woman: 2 noms
Welcome to Chechnya: 2 noms
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