We finally have our nominees! There were a few jaw-droppers, but overall it was a more predictable set of nominees than usual. Check out my reactions, how my predictions did, the Coolest First Time Nominees, the Biggest Snubs, and more!
BEST PICTURE
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Father
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Predicted: 7 for 8
Reactions: I had 8 movies getting nominated, and I had all but The Father in my top 10. I was so skeptical of a One Night in Miami and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom Best Picture nomination, but everyone had them in and talked me into predicting them. I am glad they missed because both movies aren’t any good. The Father is an amazing choice for the last spot. After all of the screener issues, I dropped it to #11. This is a really interesting group.
Preliminary prediction: Nomadland
BEST DIRECTOR
Chloe Zhao - Nomadland
David Fincher - Mank
Emerald Fennell - Promising Young Woman
Lee Isaac Chung - Minari
Thomas Vinterberg - Another Round
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I obviously missed Vinterberg, but wow what an inspired nomination! I knew it was a possibility after the BAFTA nomination, but seeing it here is just a fantastic validation of such an incredible film. Without the Best Picture nomination, Vinterberg joins just Pawel Pawlikowski and Bennett Miller to get in here since the expanded field was implemented in 2009. The rest were pretty secure. I am just really surprised that they really snubbed Aaron Sorkin. The Academy is really hesitant to anoint new directors sometimes. It is a similar situation to Ben Affleck’s Argo snub.
Preliminary prediction: Chloe Zhao
BEST ACTOR
Anthony Hopkins - The Father
Chadwick Boseman - Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Gary Oldman - Mank
Riz Ahmed - Sound of Metal
Steven Yeun - Minari
Predicted: 5 for 5
Reactions: This was really the only way this category could go. They all appeared in every spot they were supposed to. Even if they snuck in a Mads Mikkelsen or a Delroy Lindo, it would have been devastating for Steven Yeun or whoever would have been on the outside looking in. Nice work, Academy.
Preliminary prediction: Chadwick Boseman
BEST ACTRESS
Andra Day - The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Carey Mulligan - Promising Young Woman
Frances McDormand - Nomadland
Vanessa Kirby - Pieces of a Woman
Viola Davis - Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I took a stab with Sophia Loren over the Golden Globe-winner Andra Day. This is actually a fantastic and compelling group of nominees. I can see any one of them winning. And they won’t all be competing against each other at SAG or BAFTA, so we really won’t know until the Oscars!
Preliminary prediction: Vanessa Kirby
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Daniel Kaluuya - Judas and the Black Messiah
Lakeith Stanfield - Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom Jr - One Night in Miami
Paul Paci - Sound of Metal
Sacha Baron Cohen - The Trial of the Chicago 7
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: Holy shit...Lakeith Stanfield!!! I knew there was like a 2% chance he gets in for Best Actor, but here...I completely hate the blatant category fraud (similar to Leo DiCaprio being deemed supporting out of nowhere by SAG for The Departed), but this is amazing. He is always the best or second best part of every film, and he finally gets some love after not a single nomination leading up to this. Paul Raci gets in for the best performance of the year, which is refreshing because that type of role by an unknown is always forgotten. I had a Mark Rylance surprise, but I’m glad I had the wrong one creating the double nomination.
Preliminary prediction: Daniel Kaluuya
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amanda Seyfried - Mank
Glenn Close - Hillbilly Elegy
Maria Bakalova - Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Olivia Colman - The Father
Yuh-jung Youn - Minari
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I took a swing with Ellen Burstyn getting in over Seyfried. I am just glad we don’t have to see Jodie Foster here for that lousy movie. This is a deeply unpredictable race. Bakalova has swept the season, but can they really give a movie with that stupid title an Oscar over Glenn Close? If she loses, she might as well just retire.
Preliminary prediction: Glenn Close
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Judas and the Black Messiah
Minari
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I missed Sound of Metal because I had Mank...which I listed as a lock. I mean, they chose the right film if it was between those two, but damn that is a brutal snub. Jack Fincher had every nomination he needed, and here he misses. Ouch...
Preliminary prediction: Promising Young Woman
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
The Father
The White Tiger
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I had Ma Rainey in against my own instincts. I knew one of the three plays was getting snubbed. The White Tiger I missed in favor of the similarly marketed The Mauritanian. I also didn’t have Borat. There are 9 writers that got nominated for that hardly scripted movie. The nominations announcement was like 30 minutes, and 15 of those minutes were reading that stupid title and all those names...twice for Story and Screenplay. Despicable. What a brutally awful choice for the Academy.
Preliminary prediction: Nomadland
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
News of the World
Nomadland
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I missed Chicago 7 and Judas in favor of Ma Rainey (my nemesis) and First Cow, just because it really needed to get in somewhere. It is the first time the NYFCC Best Picture winner was not nominated for a single Oscar.
Preliminary prediction: Nomadland
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
News of the World
Tenet
The Father
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: The Father getting in here is huge! They never nominate modern production designs, especially one as small and unflashy as that. I missed that in favor of The Personal History of David Copperfield, and I have no problem with that!
Preliminary prediction: Mank
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Emma
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Mulan
Pinocchio
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I missed Pinocchio in favor of Ammonite. I just really thought it would show up somewhere. This is actually a pretty standard list. Not much to see here.
Preliminary prediction: Emma
BEST SOUND
Greyhound
Mank
News of the World
Soul
Sound of Metal
Predicted: 2 for 5
Reactions: Ugh...here we go. I only had Sound of Metal and News of the World, while predicting them to give love to their predetermined frontrunners that usually randomly show up in the sound cetegories with Promising Young Woman, Chicago 7, and Nomadland. I guess this category is not as predictable as Sound Mixing.
Preliminary prediction: Sound of Metal
BEST FILM EDITING
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Father
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: That's 4 nominations for Zhao, if you’re keeping track. That is the first time someone has done that since the Coens in 2007, right? I missed The Father in favor of News of the World. That is a bit of a bizarre choice, but I like it.
Preliminary prediction: Sound of Metal
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Love and Monsters
Mulan
Tenet
The Midnight Sky
The One and Only Ivan
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: ...I have literally never heard of Love and Monsters. I also missed Ivan for Mank and Welcome to Chechnya, which was supposedly a lock. Well...this is why these categories are so tough.
Preliminary prediction: Mulan
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Emma
Hillbilly Elegy
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Pinocchio
Predicted: 5 for 5
Reactions: Boom!!! I was pretty confident here. This is actually a really tough one to pick a winner for...
Preliminary prediction: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Husavik” - Eurovision Song Contest
“Fight for You” - Judas and the Black Messiah
“Speak Now” - One Night in Miami
“Io Si” - The Life Ahead
“Hear My Voice” - The Trial of the Chicago 7
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I missed that horrible Chicago 7 song in favor of the song from All In: A Fight for Democracy. There is almost always a doc in there. Oh well...
Preliminary prediction: “Speak Now”
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Da 5 Bloods
Mank
Minari
News of the World
Soul
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I put in Chicago 7 instead of Da 5 Bloods. They just couldn’t completely shut it out. Chicago 7 is actually looking a lot weaker than anyone could have predicted. This is getting weird.
Preliminary prediction: Soul
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Collective
Crip Camp
My Octopus Teacher
The Mole Agent
Time
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I missed The Octopus Teacher (I’m an idiot) and Crip Camp in favor of Boys State and Welcome to Chechnya. I don’t feel too bad about this. I really like the love for The Mole Agent. I knew when it made the International Film shortlist that it had a real chance.
Preliminary prediction: Collective
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
Another Round
Better Days
Collective
Quo vadis, Aida?
The Man Who Sold His Skin
Predicted: 2 for 5
Reactions: Ok, I only got Another Round and Quo vadis, Aida?. This is actually a really bizarre category. We have a second straight year with a double dip. The other two films I was not familiar with or thought they were real contenders from the shortlist. Interesting… I have some catching up to do.
Preliminary prediction: Another Round
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
Onward
Over the Moon
Soul
Wolfwalkers
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I missed Shaun the Sheep in favor of The Croods: A New Age. I don’t feel bad about that. I picked the wrong sequel. The Academy seems to always have a stop motion in there. I should have seen that coming.
Preliminary prediction: Soul
Overall predictions: 77/103; 74.8% (71.6% in 2020)
Without the last 5 categories: 60/78; 76.9% (71.4% in 2020)
On the Big 8 categories: 35/43; 81.4% (79.55% in 2020)
I actually improved! With the craziness that has been this Oscar season, I actually moved up form the marks I always seem to be at. I did really well in the middle categories, which is rare. I like it!
10 COOLEST FIRST-TIME NOMINEES
1. Lakeith Stanfield
2. Chloe Zhao
3. Riz Ahmed
4. Emerald Fennell
5. Thomas Vinterberg
6. Leslie Odom Jr
7. Steven Yeun
8. Amanda Seyfried
9. Ramin Bahrani
10. Chadwick Boseman
10 WORST SNUBS
1. Palm Springs for Best Original Screenplay
2. Delroy Lindo for Best Actor
3. Never Rarely Sometimes Always in all categories
4. I’m Thinking of Ending Things for Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Editing
5. Olivia Cooke for Best Supporting Actress
6. Aaron Sorkin for Best Director
7. A Sun for Best International Feature
8. Mank for Best Original Screenplay
9. Boys State for Best Documentary Feature
10. Strummer (“Dream Together”) for Best Original Song
IF THERE WERE 5 NOMINEES...
1. Nomadland
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Promising Young Woman
4. Minari
5. Judas and the Black Messiah
IF THERE WERE 10 NOMINEES...
9. One Night in Miami
10. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Stay tuned for our 13th Annual Oscar Challenge!
No comments:
Post a Comment