#13
The Houston Astros struggled in the 2020 regular season, barely making the playoffs, but once they were in they were a game away from making the World Series. What will come next for one of the most successful teams of the last 5 years?
#6 - 1st in AL West, lose in ALDS
MIH - Carlos Correa
MIP - Lance McCullers Jr.
PTW - Forrest Whitley
2020 Results
#16 - 29-31, 2nd in AL West, lost in ALCS
If any team benefited from the COVID layoff and no fans in 2020, it was the Houston Astros. Coming off a huge scandal with sign stealing, by the time the season start in 2020, the narrative had changed and there were no fans to heckle them. With all that said, the Astros struggled in the regular season, finishing below .500 and only making the playoffs because of the special 2020 rule that all second place finishers make the playoffs. Their postseason run did show they know what to do when they get there though, losing in Game 7 of the ALCS to the Rays. So was 2020 a successful season? Yes and no.
Additions / Subtractions
Everyone knew the core of this Astros team wouldn't be able to stay together forever. At some point, when all these young players are ready to get paid, some were going to move on. For the first time, this happened this offseason as George Springer, the team's best player in 2020, signed in free agency with the Toronto Blue Jays. Outfielder Josh Reddick also is no longer on the roster. Both spots the Astros chose to replace internally. In terms of pitching, they brought in Jake Odorizzi late in the process to help compensate for some injuries suffered during Spring Training. For a team that was loading up talent only a few years ago, the Astros seemed to have reached a point where they are just trying to maintain as much as possible.
Most Important Hitter
Jose Altuve
Many players in the Astros' lineup had lackluster shortened seasons in 2020, but no one struggled quite like Jose Altuve. The former league MVP has earned the reputation as one of the best hitters in baseball, but 2020 led to a .219 average and a 71 OPS+, both career lows. Could he have bounced back if given a full 162? Maybe. Could his production have dropped due to the sign stealing scandal? Maybe. He needs to bounce back in 2021, not only to show everyone his reputation was earned and not stolen, but also because the Astros need the bat to set the table at the top of their lineup. Losing leadoff hitter George Springer leaves a huge hole in the Astros' lineup. If Altuve gets back to doing Altuve things, it will go a long way to replacing that production.
Most Important Pitcher
Cristian Javier
The Astros had some pretty big seasons out of some unheralded young pitchers in their rotation, especially after ace Justin Verlander went down after Opening Day. Between Jose Urquidy, Framber Valdez, and Cristian Javier, the Astros were able to round out a solid rotation alongside Zack Greinke and Lance McCullers Jr. This was shown particularly in the playoffs. Now, the Astros are counting on them to repeat that production in 2021. Framber Valdez broke a finger in his first Spring start and might miss the season. This makes Cristian Javier that much more important. Entering his age 24 season and coming off a 3rd place finish in the Rookie of the Year voting, Javier will be counted on to have another strong season and become one of the aces of this staff.
Prospect to Watch
Pedro Leon
The Astros built this roster from the ground up. When you do that as successfully as the Astros have done, you are going to go from a top farm system to a bad farm system. That's what has happened here. The Astros only have one Top 100 prospect in Forrest Whitley, who probably should have made his debut by now if it weren't for some injuries and suspensions. Now he is down with Tommy John and will delay his debut even longer. So let's talk about someone else that might actually play in 2021. Pedro Leon is a Cuban defector that signed with the Astros just days before George Springer signed with the Blue Jays. Now, the Astros are looking at this outfielder as Springer's possible replacement in centerfield. If Miles Straw struggles in center, look for the 22 year old Leon to be given a shot sooner rather than later, even though he will only be playing his first season in the states.
2021 Prediction
2nd in AL West
There are so many question marks surrounding this team in 2021. Can the lineup be productive without George Springer? How much does Zack Greinke have left in the tank? Can the kids in the rotation repeat their strong 2020 seasons? Will Yordan Alvarez's knee hold up this season? Will the Astros make a decision about Carlos Correa during his contract year? And most importantly, how will the roster react to actually having to deal with fans for the first time since they were punished for the sign stealing scandal? How will they react to watching their World Series winning manager walk into Houston wearing a Detroit Tigers jersey? Could the Astros make the playoffs this year? Absolutely. Could they win the division? Sure. Could they finish in 3rd or 4th place in the division? Not impossible. There are just too many questions to predict them to do too much. All I have to say is the rest of the league is hoping they stay out of the postseason. No matter how their season goes, last season showed they are always dangerous in the playoffs.
Fearless Prediction
One of the Astros three core players left is playing their last season as an Astro.
Carlos Correa is entering his contract year and will be looking for a big pay day. Jose Altuve is getting paid top dollar but is coming off a bad season. Alex Bregman also struggled in 2020, but already has a sizable contract. The Astros want to re-sign Correa, but will it cost them one of the other stars on their team? I think either Correa goes elsewhere or they find a way to move on from one of their other stars. This season has the potential to show the Astros they need to start to deepen their talent pool and roster instead of invest in the few left from their World Series core. So many teams have copied the Astros' blueprint of success over the last several years. Now they are going to be the trend setters on how maintain once everyone needs to be paid. Or is it worth maintaining? Either way, it will be fascinating to see what they do.
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