2023 Pre-Season Profile: Houston Astros

 #5

The Houston Astros went all the way and won the World Series in 2022.  Will they be able to make it back despite losing the reigning Cy Young winner?

2022 Predictions

#7 - 2nd in AL West, WILD CARD, lose in ALDS

MIH - Kyle Tucker

MIP - Justin Verlander

PTW - Jeremy Pena

2022 Results

#1 - 106-56, 1st in AL West, won World Series

Highest WAR (Position) - Yordan Alvarez

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Justin Verlander

Here is exactly what I said about the Houston Astros before last season... "How many times can a team lose a superstar and not skip a beat?  After the 2019 season, Gerrit Cole (3rd in team WAR) sign with the Yankees.  After the 2020 season, George Springer (team leader in WAR) signs with the Blue Jays.  After the 2021 season, Carlos Correa (team leader in WAR) signs with the Twins.  Somehow they keep excelling.  They have to be coming to the end of this magical run though."  Well, apparently not.  Thanks to rookie Jeremy Pena and the emergence of Yordan Alvarez, the Astros didn't really miss Correa at all.  Their 2022 World Series win was validation after the sign stealing scandal somewhat tainted the 2017 championship.

Additions / Subtractions

So how many times can a team lose a superstar and not skip a beat?  This offseason it was reigning Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander who signed with the Mets.  The only other subtractions were first baseman Yuli Gurriel and role players Aledmys Diaz and Trey Mancini.  Coming in to Houston to replace Gurriel is former MVP Jose Abreu.  The other thing to note here is thanks to a HBP in the WBC, Jose Altuve will be sidelined for the first two months of the season.

Most Important Hitter

Jeremy Pena

Jeremy Pena became a superstar last postseason after winning ALCS MVP as well as World Series MVP; not bad for a rookie who was replacing a face of the franchise.  However, many forget that he wasn't that great during the regular season.  He did win the Gold Glove, but his OPS+ was at 101, which is pretty much league average.  The Astros are entering 2023 thinking they have a star at shortstop.  If that's the case, Pena needs to show he can be more productive throughout the entire season this year.

Most Important Pitcher

Framber Valdez

Framber Valdez has been quietly dominant for Houston since his debut in 2018.  In 2022, everyone started to notice him as he posted a 137 ERA+ and finished in 5th in the Cy Young voting.  Now, Valdez is the undisputed ace of the staff.  It's a lot easier to have success when no one is paying attention.  Now, with no Gerrit Cole or Zack Greinke or Justin Verlander or a healthy Lance McCullers Jr., Valdez is in the spotlight and expected to fill those shoes.  There has yet to be a challenge he hasn't been up for, but can he handle being the ace for an entire season?

Prospect to Watch

Hunter Brown

Ever since the Astros started this dominant run, their farm system has been pretty depleted through graduating top prospects and trades, however they always seem to have a guy ready each year to impact the big league team.  This year, that guy is Hunter Brown.  This right-handed starting pitcher is ranked #43 on the Top 100 and is the only player the Astros have in the Top 100.  One of the nice things about being a prospect in a successful system like the Astros is you get exposed to more sooner.  Brown got a chance to pitch in a few games at the end of last season, but he also made the postseason roster and pitched out of the bullpen in the ALDS and ALCS.  That experience should help him as he starts this season in the Astros rotation and appears ready to be their next mainstay.

2023 Prediction

1st in AL West, lose in ALDS

So how many times can a team lose a superstar and not skip a beat?  Well, the Astros are truly testing this theory again.  The players they have left have shown they know how to navigate the regular season and the postseason, but repeating is so difficult.  I see them winning the division again, but eventually everything catches up with them in the playoffs.  If this truly is what happens, it will be the first time since 2016 the Astros will not be appearing in the ALCS.  I don't see how that run could be repeated any time soon.

Fearless Prediction

Manager Dusty Baker retires at the end of the 2023 season.

Dusty Baker has been one of the best managers of the 21st century.  He has led the Giants, Cubs, Reds, Nationals, and Astros over a 25 year managing career.  Last season, he finally got his World Series championship, a feat that had also eluded him during his playing career.  It would have made a lot of sense if he used that World Series victory to ride off into the sunset, but you get the temptation to see if you can do it again.  I could see coming up short in 2023 being a sign that it is time for the 73 year old to step away from the dugout and await his spot in Cooperstown.

2021 Pre-Season Profile: Houston Astros

 #13

The Houston Astros struggled in the 2020 regular season, barely making the playoffs, but once they were in they were a game away from making the World Series.  What will come next for one of the most successful teams of the last 5 years?

2020 Predictions

#6 - 1st in AL West, lose in ALDS

MIH - Carlos Correa

MIP - Lance McCullers Jr.

PTW - Forrest Whitley

2020 Results

#16 - 29-31, 2nd in AL West, lost in ALCS

If any team benefited from the COVID layoff and no fans in 2020, it was the Houston Astros.  Coming off a huge scandal with sign stealing, by the time the season start in 2020, the narrative had changed and there were no fans to heckle them.  With all that said, the Astros struggled in the regular season, finishing below .500 and only making the playoffs because of the special 2020 rule that all second place finishers make the playoffs.  Their postseason run did show they know what to do when they get there though, losing in Game 7 of the ALCS to the Rays.  So was 2020 a successful season?  Yes and no.

Additions / Subtractions

Everyone knew the core of this Astros team wouldn't be able to stay together forever.  At some point, when all these young players are ready to get paid, some were going to move on.  For the first time, this happened this offseason as George Springer, the team's best player in 2020, signed in free agency with the Toronto Blue Jays.  Outfielder Josh Reddick also is no longer on the roster.  Both spots the Astros chose to replace internally.  In terms of pitching, they brought in Jake Odorizzi late in the process to help compensate for some injuries suffered during Spring Training.  For a team that was loading up talent only a few years ago, the Astros seemed to have reached a point where they are just trying to maintain as much as possible.

Most Important Hitter

Jose Altuve

Many players in the Astros' lineup had lackluster shortened seasons in 2020, but no one struggled quite like Jose Altuve.  The former league MVP has earned the reputation as one of the best hitters in baseball, but 2020 led to a .219 average and a 71 OPS+, both career lows.  Could he have bounced back if given a full 162?  Maybe.  Could his production have dropped due to the sign stealing scandal?  Maybe.  He needs to bounce back in 2021, not only to show everyone his reputation was earned and not stolen, but also because the Astros need the bat to set the table at the top of their lineup.  Losing leadoff hitter George Springer leaves a huge hole in the Astros' lineup.  If Altuve gets back to doing Altuve things, it will go a long way to replacing that production.

Most Important Pitcher

Cristian Javier

The Astros had some pretty big seasons out of some unheralded young pitchers in their rotation, especially after ace Justin Verlander went down after Opening Day.  Between Jose Urquidy, Framber Valdez, and Cristian Javier, the Astros were able to round out a solid rotation alongside Zack Greinke and Lance McCullers Jr.  This was shown particularly in the playoffs.  Now, the Astros are counting on them to repeat that production in 2021.  Framber Valdez broke a finger in his first Spring start and might miss the season.  This makes Cristian Javier that much more important.  Entering his age 24 season and coming off a 3rd place finish in the Rookie of the Year voting, Javier will be counted on to have another strong season and become one of the aces of this staff.

Prospect to Watch

Pedro Leon

The Astros built this roster from the ground up.  When you do that as successfully as the Astros have done, you are going to go from a top farm system to a bad farm system.  That's what has happened here.  The Astros only have one Top 100 prospect in Forrest Whitley, who probably should have made his debut by now if it weren't for some injuries and suspensions.  Now he is down with Tommy John and will delay his debut even longer.  So let's talk about someone else that might actually play in 2021.  Pedro Leon is a Cuban defector that signed with the Astros just days before George Springer signed with the Blue Jays.  Now, the Astros are looking at this outfielder as Springer's possible replacement in centerfield.  If Miles Straw struggles in center, look for the 22 year old Leon to be given a shot sooner rather than later, even though he will only be playing his first season in the states.

2021 Prediction

2nd in AL West

There are so many question marks surrounding this team in 2021.  Can the lineup be productive without George Springer?  How much does Zack Greinke have left in the tank?  Can the kids in the rotation repeat their strong 2020 seasons?  Will Yordan Alvarez's knee hold up this season?  Will the Astros make a decision about Carlos Correa during his contract year?  And most importantly, how will the roster react to actually having to deal with fans for the first time since they were punished for the sign stealing scandal?  How will they react to watching their World Series winning manager walk into Houston wearing a Detroit Tigers jersey?  Could the Astros make the playoffs this year?  Absolutely.  Could they win the division?  Sure.  Could they finish in 3rd or 4th place in the division?  Not impossible.  There are just too many questions to predict them to do too much.  All I have to say is the rest of the league is hoping they stay out of the postseason.  No matter how their season goes, last season showed they are always dangerous in the playoffs.

Fearless Prediction

One of the Astros three core players left is playing their last season as an Astro.

Carlos Correa is entering his contract year and will be looking for a big pay day.  Jose Altuve is getting paid top dollar but is coming off a bad season.  Alex Bregman also struggled in 2020, but already has a sizable contract.  The Astros want to re-sign Correa, but will it cost them one of the other stars on their team?  I think either Correa goes elsewhere or they find a way to move on from one of their other stars.  This season has the potential to show the Astros they need to start to deepen their talent pool and roster instead of invest in the few left from their World Series core.  So many teams have copied the Astros' blueprint of success over the last several years.  Now they are going to be the trend setters on how maintain once everyone needs to be paid.  Or is it worth maintaining?  Either way, it will be fascinating to see what they do.

2017 Pre-Season Profile: Washington Nationals

#2

The Washington Nationals have been on the brink of winning a pennant for years now.  Will 2017 finally be the year the franchise makes its first World Series?

My 2016 Predictions

2nd in NL East

Stephen Strasburg will be traded before the end of the season.

2016 Results

95-67, 1st in NL East, lost in NLDS

The Nationals had a better season than I anticipated.  Despite Bryce Harper having a sub-par season compared to his MVP 2015 season, the Nats were able to win the division behind their elite pitching.  The addition of Dusty Baker as manager seemed to have more of an impact than many expected.  With all that said, the Nationals still came up short, not even winning a series in the playoffs before being ousted once again.  As for my Fearless Prediction, I said the team had a choice to make: either sign Strasburg long term or trade him.  I simply chose the wrong option as Strasburg will be a Nat for the foreseeable future.

Additions / Subtractions

The Nationals were active this offseason.  They also made several of the more scrutinized moves of the offseason.  Leaving the team were catcher Wilson Ramos, rented closer Mark Melancon, ad shortstop Danny Espinosa.  The Nats were a leading candidate this offseason for ace Chris Sale.  When they lost the bid to the Red Sox, they immediately turned around and traded multiple top prospects for outfielder Adam Eaton.  Many have argued, although the advanced analytics say Eaton was worth the trade, the Nationals overpaid for him.  Late in free agency, they brought in catcher Matt Wieters to replace the departed Ramos.  The other questionable move involves a move they didn't make.  After losing Melancon to free agency, the Nats left themselves without an elite, or even a proven, closer.  They could have acquired guys like David Robertson from Chicago or Alex Colome from Tampa Bay.  Instead, they chose to fill this role from within, even though they had no one on their roster with big league closing experience.

Most Important Hitter

Adam Eaton

With the amount the Nationals gave up for Adam Eaton, he needs to show that he was worth it.  Eaton is a really good defensive player with a decent bat and a knack for getting on base and causing havoc once he is there.  With the sluggers the Nats have in the middle of their order, they felt their urgent need was a table setter to get on base in front of guys like Harper, Murphy, and Zimmerman.  Not only is Eaton being counted on to be that guy, he has to be that guy not only for the Nationals to succeed this season, but also to justify the big trade made for him.

Most Important Pitcher

Tanner Roark

To make a deep postseason run, a team usually needs three great starters to dominate a series.  After the Nationals lost the Chris Sale sweepstakes, they will be counting on Tanner Roark to be that #3 starter behind Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg.  Recently, Roark has shown he can be that guy.  After being the odd man out a few years ago when the "Super Rotation" came to DC, Roark worked his way back into the rotation full time in 2016, winning 16 games with a 2.83 ERA in 210 innings.  He followed that up with a successful run in the WBC this spring.  If he pitches how he is capable of pitching, the Nationals may have their third ace without making a move.

Player to Watch

Koda Glover

At the end of the 2016 season, the Nationals had a farm system stocked full of talent poised to burst on the scene in 2017.  After the Adam Eaton trade, most of that talent is gone.  However, one player that is worth paying attention to is Koda Glover.  Glover, who played a little in the big leagues last season, is a live arm starting the season in the Nats' bullpen.  Under ideal circumstances, Glover becomes the reason why the Nationals didn't trade for a closer this offseason as he takes the job and runs with it.

2017 Prediction

1st in NL East, lose in World Series

I think this is the year the Nationals finally do it!  Their lineup rivals the Cubs in talent and depth.  Their top three starting pitchers can rival the Mets.  The moves they made this offseason, especially the Adam Eaton trade, not only show a commitment to winning now, but also will greatly help the team be better this season.  However, the X factor for the Nationals is their manager.  This team has found the perfect balance of analytic, sabermetric front office with an old school, clubhouse manager in Dusty Baker.  Baker in DC is a perfect fit, and last year's success proves my point.  This team is strong and has the experience across the board to make the deep run in the postseason the city, and the league, has been waiting for.

Fearless Prediction

Trea Turner will start the All Star Game at shortstop.

In 2016, Trea Turner showed that he is a star in the making.  He finished second in the Rookie of the Year voting, only losing to Corey Seager.  That was while only playing half a season (73 games) and playing out of position (centerfield instead of his original shortstop).  Yet he had a .342 average, 13 homers, 40 RBI's, and 33 steals.  Now he is the Opening Day shortstop and leadoff hitter.  By the end of the season, Trea Turner will be considered one of the best young shortstops in the game with names like Lindor, Correa, Diaz, Story, and Seager.

2016 Pre-Season Profile: Washington Nationals

The last few seasons, the Washington Nationals have been one of, if not the, most talented roster in baseball.  However, they really don't have anything to show for it.  Will 2016 finally be the year they break through?

Last Season

My 2015 Prediction: 1st in NL East, lose in NLCS

2015 Result: 83-79, 2nd in NL East

If the games were played on paper, the Nationals would have won the World Series in 2015.  Best rotation in baseball, one of the best lineups in baseball.  It was a no-brainer.  I was a little leery of them, but my conservative prediction had them going out in the NLCS.  It was inconceivable that a team this talented doesn't even make the playoffs.  Well, they didn't even make the playoffs.  This was even with a breakout freak season from 2015 MVP Bryce Harper.  They seemed to make all the right moves, including some high-profile trades at the deadline.  Nothing seemed to work.  With as high as expectations were, 2015 was about as bad of a failure as you can get.

2016 Additions / Subtractions

Watching the Nationals over the offseason was interesting.  The past few seasons has been all about adding more and more talent to create an All Star Team.  This offseason seemed to be more about simplifying.  The one high-profile signing was bringing in postseason hero Daniel Murphy from the Mets, however he is, more or less, replacing guys that left life Ian Desmond and Yunel Escobar.  They also traded for Ben Revere, solving the drama in the bullpen by sending Drew Storen to Toronto.  With that said, this seemed to be an offseason of downsizing and making room for young talent.  They let Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister leave, as well as Desmond and Denard Span.  They have a great farm system.  It is about time they let it shine.  The biggest move they made this offseason was at manager.  They finally fired the overwhelmed Matt Williams (when will franchises learn that hiring a first-time manager to coach a high-profile team never works ... unless you are the Cardinals).  To replace Williams, they went in the exact opposite direction by hiring the definition of old school experience, Dusty Baker.

Most Important Hitter

Anthony Rendon

In 2014, Anthony Rendon had a borderline MVP season, which led to a playoff appearance for the Nationals.  In 2015, injuries held him to just 80 games as he never really was able to show much production.  With the emergence of Bryce Harper, they Nats need a a guy like Rendon to get back to where he was in 2014 to make this lineup as deep and strong as it was in its playoff years.

Most Important Pitcher

Gio Gonzalez

When Max Scherzer was brought in last season, the Nationals' pitching staff was billed as a staff of five (maybe even six) aces.  The forgotten member of that group seemed to be Gio Gonzalez, and there was good reason he was forgotten.  He had an extremely average season in 2015, and has been fairly average ever since he finished 3rd in Cy Young voting in 2012.  However, the Nationals have to count on him heavily as the only lefty in their top six or seven starting pitchers.  He isn't that old.  He needs to have  much more productive season to bring the depth back to that rotation.

Player to Watch

Trea Turner

To once again show just how foolish the Padres' spending was last season, let's evaluate a trade.  The Padres acquired Wil Myers, some low-level prospects, and a veteran catcher in a three team trade with the Rays and Nationals.  That Nationals gave up a couple prospects, including Steven Souza who started all season for the Rays.  The key to this is what the Padres gave the Nationals.  They sent pitcher Joe Ross (projected to be in the Nationals' starting rotation) and shortstop Trea Turner.  Turner was a first round pick that didn't even last 6 months with the team that drafted him.  Now, he is the shortstop of the future for one of the most talented teams in the league.  Trea Turner is the reason the Nats didn't fight to keep Ian Desmond.  Trea Turner should be a top contender for Rookie of the Year in 2016.  Another prospect to watch that will no doubt have an impact in 2016 is starting pitcher Lucas Giolito.  He is one of the top prospects in all of baseball, but will have to wait for someone to struggle or get hurt before he gets his chance.  Turner has an opportunity to start on Opening Day.

2016 Prediction

2nd in NL East

I love every move the Nationals have made this offseason.  They are looking much stronger by simply letting their team grow instead of trying to buy a title.  They are also in a weak division that really should only be a two team race.  With that said, I think they will lose that two team race.  They are definitely moving in the right direction again, and Dusty Baker will have them back in the playoffs very soon.

Fearless Prediction

Stephen Strasburg will be traded before the end of the season.

This is quite a long shot, but hear me out.  Stephen Strasburg is the final year of his rookie contract, and you can imagine he is looking for someone to pay him (Yankees, are you listening?).  After the way he was treated with the whole "innings limit" thing, and the fact they already have one pitcher making $30 million per year in Max Scherzer, it can be assumed he will probably not be returning to the Nationals.  Strasburg should be worth more to the Nationals than the compensatory draft pick they will receive when he declines the qualifying offer and signs elsewhere.  If all this makes sense, the only logical course of action would be to trade him if they can bring in a haul of talent.  Someone just might be desperate enough to do it too, if they need a top-flight starter.  I could see this happen even if they are still in contention, if they get pieces that help them now as well as prospects.  It would also clear a spot for Lucas Giolito to hop in the rotation and pitch meaningful innings down the stretch.  I don't think this will actually happen, but it makes too much sense to not consider a possibility.