2023 Pre-Season Profile: Philadelphia Phillies

 #9

The Philadelphia Phillies snuck into the playoffs, got hot at the right time, and rode that wave all the way to the World Series.  Will 2023 show a repeat of that success?

2022 Predictions

#10 - 2nd in NL East, WILD CARD, lose in Wild Card Round

MIH - Bryce Harper

MIP - Ranger Suarez

PTW - Bryson Stott

2022 Results

#2 - 87-75, 3rd in NL East, WILD CARD, lost World Series

Highest WAR (Position) - J.T. Realmuto

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Aaron Nola

The Philadelphia Phillies saw the highest of highs and the lowest of lows in 2022.  After a disappointing start, the Phillies fired manager Joe Girardi.  New manager Rob Thomson turned the whole season around and helped them get that last Wild Card spot.  Bryce Harper got injured and didn't play a full season.  He was able to bat in the postseason, but that was it.  Then, they made it all the way to the World Series before finally losing to the Astros.  It was ultimately a successful season in Philly, even though it didn't really start that way.

Additions / Subtractions

Clubs run by Dave Dombrowski love to spend money, and that fact was shown this offseason.  The Phillies may have spent more than anyone else, first landing what many thought was the grand prize of free agency, shortstop Trea Turner.  However, they didn't stop there.  They also brought in starting pitchers Taijuan Walker and Matt Strahm.  They traded for reliver Gregory Soto and signed reliever Craig Kimbrel.  To add depth, they signed utilityman Josh Harrison.  They did lose a few from their roster, like Jean Segura, Kyle Gibson, Brad Hand, Noah Syndergaard, and David Robertson.  That's a lot of turnover for a pennant-winning roster, but it's safe to say most of these moves were upgrades.

Most Important Hitter

Nick Castellanos

The biggest roster impact heading into the 2023 season might be Bryce Harper's offseason surgery costing him possibly the first half of the season.  The Phillies will be looking for someone to pick up the production in the lineup.  A great candidate for that would be Nick Castellanos.  One of the prizes for the Phillies in last year's offseason, Castellanos's 2022 season was not up to his 5 year, $100 million payday.  His 95 OPS+ was his worst OPS+ of his career, and his first under 100 since 2015.  He had an All Star season in 2021 that included a 12th place MVP finish and a Silver Slugger; definitely the best season of his career.  The question is if he can return to that 2021 level.  The Phillies could sure use a big year from Castellanos to compensate for the loss of Harper for the start of the season.

Most Important Pitcher

Zack Wheeler

The Phillies have several top end starters, but when they are all at their best, Zack Wheeler is the top of the class.  The prize of the 2020 offseason free agent class, Wheeler lived up to the contract in 2021, leading the league in complete games, shutouts, innings pitched, finishing 2nd in the Cy Young voting and even getting some MVP votes.  Last season saw a few bumps along the way as he was not able to make all his starts.  According to ERA+, he wasn't that much worse (150 in 2021, 144 in 2022), but his drop off in production was felt.  If he can regain his 2021 production, then this rotation goes from really good to elite.

Prospect to Watch

Andrew Painter

When you are so focused on winning in the here and now, the farm system usually suffers.  The Phillies farm system is ranked in the bottom third of the league, despite that system being headlined by Andrew Painter.  Painter is the #6 prospect in the Top 100 and the top pitching prospect in the league.  Painter is a unicorn in some ways.  Drafted in the first round in 2021 out of high school, Painter is knocking on the door of the majors at just 19 years old.  It takes a special talent to advance that quickly, but this 6'7" righty is that.  He entered camp with a realistic shot at making the starting rotation on Opening Day, but a UCL sprain early on in camp has everyone nervous.  At best, it will delay his debut till mid-season.  At worst, he will need Tommy John surgery and we might not see him pitch till 2025.  Everyone is hoping for the former, especially since the Phillies were counting on him to bring a spark to their rotation this season.

2023 Prediction

2nd in NL East, WILD CARD, lose in Wild Card Round

The Phillies are too good to have too much of a World Series hangover.  At the same time, there are several questions entering the season that could keep them from advancing too far.  The Phillies are definitely in the category of "superteam" with the amount of money they have spent over the years.  With that said, the success of the Phillies this season feels directly tied to how well they can withstand the absence of Bryce Harper.  They are hoping he can return to the lineup by the end of May, but he may be relegated to DH all season as he recovers from Tommy John surgery.  Their young spark in the rotation might be lost before the year even starts.  Like with any team in the top ten, they could end up winning the whole thing, but I don't think the stars are aligned quite right for the Phillies in 2023.

Fearless Prediction

Trea Turner will be a 30/30 player in 2023.

One of the most dynamic athletes in all of baseball, Trea Turner got a huge payday this offseason to return to the east coast.  Who cares how much it cost, the Phillies scored big picking him up to be their their shortstop for the next 11 seasons.  Turner seems to be a prime candidate to have a 30/30 season (30 home runs, 30 stolen bases).  This feat has happened 65 times in MLB history, most recently in 2021 by Cedric Mullins of the Orioles.  Turner has come close, but he has never reached these two marks at the same time before, the closest being 2021 when he had 28 homers and 32 steals.  That was also the last time he changed teams.  Look for him to once again show off for his new team with a career best season.

2017 Pre-Season Profile: Washington Nationals

#2

The Washington Nationals have been on the brink of winning a pennant for years now.  Will 2017 finally be the year the franchise makes its first World Series?

My 2016 Predictions

2nd in NL East

Stephen Strasburg will be traded before the end of the season.

2016 Results

95-67, 1st in NL East, lost in NLDS

The Nationals had a better season than I anticipated.  Despite Bryce Harper having a sub-par season compared to his MVP 2015 season, the Nats were able to win the division behind their elite pitching.  The addition of Dusty Baker as manager seemed to have more of an impact than many expected.  With all that said, the Nationals still came up short, not even winning a series in the playoffs before being ousted once again.  As for my Fearless Prediction, I said the team had a choice to make: either sign Strasburg long term or trade him.  I simply chose the wrong option as Strasburg will be a Nat for the foreseeable future.

Additions / Subtractions

The Nationals were active this offseason.  They also made several of the more scrutinized moves of the offseason.  Leaving the team were catcher Wilson Ramos, rented closer Mark Melancon, ad shortstop Danny Espinosa.  The Nats were a leading candidate this offseason for ace Chris Sale.  When they lost the bid to the Red Sox, they immediately turned around and traded multiple top prospects for outfielder Adam Eaton.  Many have argued, although the advanced analytics say Eaton was worth the trade, the Nationals overpaid for him.  Late in free agency, they brought in catcher Matt Wieters to replace the departed Ramos.  The other questionable move involves a move they didn't make.  After losing Melancon to free agency, the Nats left themselves without an elite, or even a proven, closer.  They could have acquired guys like David Robertson from Chicago or Alex Colome from Tampa Bay.  Instead, they chose to fill this role from within, even though they had no one on their roster with big league closing experience.

Most Important Hitter

Adam Eaton

With the amount the Nationals gave up for Adam Eaton, he needs to show that he was worth it.  Eaton is a really good defensive player with a decent bat and a knack for getting on base and causing havoc once he is there.  With the sluggers the Nats have in the middle of their order, they felt their urgent need was a table setter to get on base in front of guys like Harper, Murphy, and Zimmerman.  Not only is Eaton being counted on to be that guy, he has to be that guy not only for the Nationals to succeed this season, but also to justify the big trade made for him.

Most Important Pitcher

Tanner Roark

To make a deep postseason run, a team usually needs three great starters to dominate a series.  After the Nationals lost the Chris Sale sweepstakes, they will be counting on Tanner Roark to be that #3 starter behind Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg.  Recently, Roark has shown he can be that guy.  After being the odd man out a few years ago when the "Super Rotation" came to DC, Roark worked his way back into the rotation full time in 2016, winning 16 games with a 2.83 ERA in 210 innings.  He followed that up with a successful run in the WBC this spring.  If he pitches how he is capable of pitching, the Nationals may have their third ace without making a move.

Player to Watch

Koda Glover

At the end of the 2016 season, the Nationals had a farm system stocked full of talent poised to burst on the scene in 2017.  After the Adam Eaton trade, most of that talent is gone.  However, one player that is worth paying attention to is Koda Glover.  Glover, who played a little in the big leagues last season, is a live arm starting the season in the Nats' bullpen.  Under ideal circumstances, Glover becomes the reason why the Nationals didn't trade for a closer this offseason as he takes the job and runs with it.

2017 Prediction

1st in NL East, lose in World Series

I think this is the year the Nationals finally do it!  Their lineup rivals the Cubs in talent and depth.  Their top three starting pitchers can rival the Mets.  The moves they made this offseason, especially the Adam Eaton trade, not only show a commitment to winning now, but also will greatly help the team be better this season.  However, the X factor for the Nationals is their manager.  This team has found the perfect balance of analytic, sabermetric front office with an old school, clubhouse manager in Dusty Baker.  Baker in DC is a perfect fit, and last year's success proves my point.  This team is strong and has the experience across the board to make the deep run in the postseason the city, and the league, has been waiting for.

Fearless Prediction

Trea Turner will start the All Star Game at shortstop.

In 2016, Trea Turner showed that he is a star in the making.  He finished second in the Rookie of the Year voting, only losing to Corey Seager.  That was while only playing half a season (73 games) and playing out of position (centerfield instead of his original shortstop).  Yet he had a .342 average, 13 homers, 40 RBI's, and 33 steals.  Now he is the Opening Day shortstop and leadoff hitter.  By the end of the season, Trea Turner will be considered one of the best young shortstops in the game with names like Lindor, Correa, Diaz, Story, and Seager.

2016 Pre-Season Profile: Washington Nationals

The last few seasons, the Washington Nationals have been one of, if not the, most talented roster in baseball.  However, they really don't have anything to show for it.  Will 2016 finally be the year they break through?

Last Season

My 2015 Prediction: 1st in NL East, lose in NLCS

2015 Result: 83-79, 2nd in NL East

If the games were played on paper, the Nationals would have won the World Series in 2015.  Best rotation in baseball, one of the best lineups in baseball.  It was a no-brainer.  I was a little leery of them, but my conservative prediction had them going out in the NLCS.  It was inconceivable that a team this talented doesn't even make the playoffs.  Well, they didn't even make the playoffs.  This was even with a breakout freak season from 2015 MVP Bryce Harper.  They seemed to make all the right moves, including some high-profile trades at the deadline.  Nothing seemed to work.  With as high as expectations were, 2015 was about as bad of a failure as you can get.

2016 Additions / Subtractions

Watching the Nationals over the offseason was interesting.  The past few seasons has been all about adding more and more talent to create an All Star Team.  This offseason seemed to be more about simplifying.  The one high-profile signing was bringing in postseason hero Daniel Murphy from the Mets, however he is, more or less, replacing guys that left life Ian Desmond and Yunel Escobar.  They also traded for Ben Revere, solving the drama in the bullpen by sending Drew Storen to Toronto.  With that said, this seemed to be an offseason of downsizing and making room for young talent.  They let Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister leave, as well as Desmond and Denard Span.  They have a great farm system.  It is about time they let it shine.  The biggest move they made this offseason was at manager.  They finally fired the overwhelmed Matt Williams (when will franchises learn that hiring a first-time manager to coach a high-profile team never works ... unless you are the Cardinals).  To replace Williams, they went in the exact opposite direction by hiring the definition of old school experience, Dusty Baker.

Most Important Hitter

Anthony Rendon

In 2014, Anthony Rendon had a borderline MVP season, which led to a playoff appearance for the Nationals.  In 2015, injuries held him to just 80 games as he never really was able to show much production.  With the emergence of Bryce Harper, they Nats need a a guy like Rendon to get back to where he was in 2014 to make this lineup as deep and strong as it was in its playoff years.

Most Important Pitcher

Gio Gonzalez

When Max Scherzer was brought in last season, the Nationals' pitching staff was billed as a staff of five (maybe even six) aces.  The forgotten member of that group seemed to be Gio Gonzalez, and there was good reason he was forgotten.  He had an extremely average season in 2015, and has been fairly average ever since he finished 3rd in Cy Young voting in 2012.  However, the Nationals have to count on him heavily as the only lefty in their top six or seven starting pitchers.  He isn't that old.  He needs to have  much more productive season to bring the depth back to that rotation.

Player to Watch

Trea Turner

To once again show just how foolish the Padres' spending was last season, let's evaluate a trade.  The Padres acquired Wil Myers, some low-level prospects, and a veteran catcher in a three team trade with the Rays and Nationals.  That Nationals gave up a couple prospects, including Steven Souza who started all season for the Rays.  The key to this is what the Padres gave the Nationals.  They sent pitcher Joe Ross (projected to be in the Nationals' starting rotation) and shortstop Trea Turner.  Turner was a first round pick that didn't even last 6 months with the team that drafted him.  Now, he is the shortstop of the future for one of the most talented teams in the league.  Trea Turner is the reason the Nats didn't fight to keep Ian Desmond.  Trea Turner should be a top contender for Rookie of the Year in 2016.  Another prospect to watch that will no doubt have an impact in 2016 is starting pitcher Lucas Giolito.  He is one of the top prospects in all of baseball, but will have to wait for someone to struggle or get hurt before he gets his chance.  Turner has an opportunity to start on Opening Day.

2016 Prediction

2nd in NL East

I love every move the Nationals have made this offseason.  They are looking much stronger by simply letting their team grow instead of trying to buy a title.  They are also in a weak division that really should only be a two team race.  With that said, I think they will lose that two team race.  They are definitely moving in the right direction again, and Dusty Baker will have them back in the playoffs very soon.

Fearless Prediction

Stephen Strasburg will be traded before the end of the season.

This is quite a long shot, but hear me out.  Stephen Strasburg is the final year of his rookie contract, and you can imagine he is looking for someone to pay him (Yankees, are you listening?).  After the way he was treated with the whole "innings limit" thing, and the fact they already have one pitcher making $30 million per year in Max Scherzer, it can be assumed he will probably not be returning to the Nationals.  Strasburg should be worth more to the Nationals than the compensatory draft pick they will receive when he declines the qualifying offer and signs elsewhere.  If all this makes sense, the only logical course of action would be to trade him if they can bring in a haul of talent.  Someone just might be desperate enough to do it too, if they need a top-flight starter.  I could see this happen even if they are still in contention, if they get pieces that help them now as well as prospects.  It would also clear a spot for Lucas Giolito to hop in the rotation and pitch meaningful innings down the stretch.  I don't think this will actually happen, but it makes too much sense to not consider a possibility.