2023 Pre-Season Profile: Philadelphia Phillies

 #9

The Philadelphia Phillies snuck into the playoffs, got hot at the right time, and rode that wave all the way to the World Series.  Will 2023 show a repeat of that success?

2022 Predictions

#10 - 2nd in NL East, WILD CARD, lose in Wild Card Round

MIH - Bryce Harper

MIP - Ranger Suarez

PTW - Bryson Stott

2022 Results

#2 - 87-75, 3rd in NL East, WILD CARD, lost World Series

Highest WAR (Position) - J.T. Realmuto

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Aaron Nola

The Philadelphia Phillies saw the highest of highs and the lowest of lows in 2022.  After a disappointing start, the Phillies fired manager Joe Girardi.  New manager Rob Thomson turned the whole season around and helped them get that last Wild Card spot.  Bryce Harper got injured and didn't play a full season.  He was able to bat in the postseason, but that was it.  Then, they made it all the way to the World Series before finally losing to the Astros.  It was ultimately a successful season in Philly, even though it didn't really start that way.

Additions / Subtractions

Clubs run by Dave Dombrowski love to spend money, and that fact was shown this offseason.  The Phillies may have spent more than anyone else, first landing what many thought was the grand prize of free agency, shortstop Trea Turner.  However, they didn't stop there.  They also brought in starting pitchers Taijuan Walker and Matt Strahm.  They traded for reliver Gregory Soto and signed reliever Craig Kimbrel.  To add depth, they signed utilityman Josh Harrison.  They did lose a few from their roster, like Jean Segura, Kyle Gibson, Brad Hand, Noah Syndergaard, and David Robertson.  That's a lot of turnover for a pennant-winning roster, but it's safe to say most of these moves were upgrades.

Most Important Hitter

Nick Castellanos

The biggest roster impact heading into the 2023 season might be Bryce Harper's offseason surgery costing him possibly the first half of the season.  The Phillies will be looking for someone to pick up the production in the lineup.  A great candidate for that would be Nick Castellanos.  One of the prizes for the Phillies in last year's offseason, Castellanos's 2022 season was not up to his 5 year, $100 million payday.  His 95 OPS+ was his worst OPS+ of his career, and his first under 100 since 2015.  He had an All Star season in 2021 that included a 12th place MVP finish and a Silver Slugger; definitely the best season of his career.  The question is if he can return to that 2021 level.  The Phillies could sure use a big year from Castellanos to compensate for the loss of Harper for the start of the season.

Most Important Pitcher

Zack Wheeler

The Phillies have several top end starters, but when they are all at their best, Zack Wheeler is the top of the class.  The prize of the 2020 offseason free agent class, Wheeler lived up to the contract in 2021, leading the league in complete games, shutouts, innings pitched, finishing 2nd in the Cy Young voting and even getting some MVP votes.  Last season saw a few bumps along the way as he was not able to make all his starts.  According to ERA+, he wasn't that much worse (150 in 2021, 144 in 2022), but his drop off in production was felt.  If he can regain his 2021 production, then this rotation goes from really good to elite.

Prospect to Watch

Andrew Painter

When you are so focused on winning in the here and now, the farm system usually suffers.  The Phillies farm system is ranked in the bottom third of the league, despite that system being headlined by Andrew Painter.  Painter is the #6 prospect in the Top 100 and the top pitching prospect in the league.  Painter is a unicorn in some ways.  Drafted in the first round in 2021 out of high school, Painter is knocking on the door of the majors at just 19 years old.  It takes a special talent to advance that quickly, but this 6'7" righty is that.  He entered camp with a realistic shot at making the starting rotation on Opening Day, but a UCL sprain early on in camp has everyone nervous.  At best, it will delay his debut till mid-season.  At worst, he will need Tommy John surgery and we might not see him pitch till 2025.  Everyone is hoping for the former, especially since the Phillies were counting on him to bring a spark to their rotation this season.

2023 Prediction

2nd in NL East, WILD CARD, lose in Wild Card Round

The Phillies are too good to have too much of a World Series hangover.  At the same time, there are several questions entering the season that could keep them from advancing too far.  The Phillies are definitely in the category of "superteam" with the amount of money they have spent over the years.  With that said, the success of the Phillies this season feels directly tied to how well they can withstand the absence of Bryce Harper.  They are hoping he can return to the lineup by the end of May, but he may be relegated to DH all season as he recovers from Tommy John surgery.  Their young spark in the rotation might be lost before the year even starts.  Like with any team in the top ten, they could end up winning the whole thing, but I don't think the stars are aligned quite right for the Phillies in 2023.

Fearless Prediction

Trea Turner will be a 30/30 player in 2023.

One of the most dynamic athletes in all of baseball, Trea Turner got a huge payday this offseason to return to the east coast.  Who cares how much it cost, the Phillies scored big picking him up to be their their shortstop for the next 11 seasons.  Turner seems to be a prime candidate to have a 30/30 season (30 home runs, 30 stolen bases).  This feat has happened 65 times in MLB history, most recently in 2021 by Cedric Mullins of the Orioles.  Turner has come close, but he has never reached these two marks at the same time before, the closest being 2021 when he had 28 homers and 32 steals.  That was also the last time he changed teams.  Look for him to once again show off for his new team with a career best season.

2021 Pre-Season Profile: Philadelphia Phillies

 #14

The Philadelphia Phillies extended their playoff drought in 2020 despite having a talented roster built to win now.  Will 2021 finally see them break through to the postseason and fulfill the promise of their talent?

2020 Predictions

#4 - 1st in NL East, lose in NLCS

MIH - Andrew McCutchen

MIP - Zack Wheeler

PTW - Alec Bohm

2020 Results

#18 - 28-32, 3rd in NL East

Every year, I think it's time for the Phillies to break out and make a deep run in the playoffs, and every year they disappoint me.  They keep adding elite pieces, and last year it was the addition of manager Joe Girardi.  There didn't seem to be much difference on the field though.  My highlighted players even had great years.  Andrew McCutchen played well.  Not great, but good.  Zack Wheeler was their best player.  Alec Bohm emerged as their everyday third baseman and a future star.  With all that said, they still feel well short.

Additions / Subtractions

The Phillies for the most part made news this offseason in their desire to change as little as possible.  They re-signed star free agents J.T. Realmuto and Didi Gregorius.  They brought in veteran starters Matt Moore and Chase Anderson to replace departing Jake Arrieta.  The one upgrade they made was closer Archie Bradley being brought in.  Other than that, their roster is exactly the same as 2020.

Most Important Hitter

Bryce Harper

Bryce Harper is entering year 3 of his 13 year megadeal he signed with the Phillies.  This deal is paying him like one of the top 5-10 best players in the league.  The problem with that is his production on the field has yet to reach the promise of his paycheck.  In the 5 seasons since his MVP in 2015 where he nearly posted a 10 WAR season, he has only posted two 4 WAR seasons (the rest are under 2), received MVP votes in only one season, and has simply not been able to match his reputation.  The way the Phillies get over the hump and become an elite team in the league is if Bryce Harper gets back to being an elite player.  If Harper is just good, they Phillies will be just good.

Most Important Pitcher

Archie Bradley

The bullpen has been one of the areas that has ruined many a recent Phillies' season.  Their starting pitching has been solid, led by Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola.  They just can't hold a lead.  Archie Bradley is the latest arm to be brought in to try and stabilize the end of games for the Phillies.  He has been a solid reliever everywhere he has pitched.  If he is able to continue to show the consistency he has displayed throughout his career, he might finally be the answer for the Phillies' bullpen.

Prospect to Watch

Mickey Moniak

The Phillies have a lackluster farm system, only boasting two Top 100 prospects.  Although one of those prospects (starting pitcher Spencer Howard) should have a big league impact in 2021, the most fascinating prospect to watch is Mickey Moniak.  Although only the 12th ranked prospect in the Phillies' system, what makes him intriguing is the fact that he was the #1 overall pick in the 2016 Draft.  Drafted straight out of high school, this outfielder has struggled to develop in the minors.  In 2020, he finally made his big league debut, appearing in 8 games.  Now he is competing for a roster spot and a possible starting job in centerfield.  He is still only 22 years old.  There is still the talent of a #1 overall pick in there.  If he gets his shot, it will be fascinating to watch if he shows more of that promise than he has been able to display at other levels of the organization.

2021 Prediction

4th in NL East

I have predicted the Phillies to win this division the last two seasons.  Their talent is good enough to be a playoff team.  The problem is they are playing in what might be the toughest division in league history.  Will I be surprised if they make the playoffs?  No.  However, I am done predicting it until I see it.

Fearless Prediction

Joe Girardi will be fired after the season.

The Phillies have built a roster to win now.  They brought in a manager in Joe Girardi before last season to put them over the hump and get them to the playoffs.  These windows for teams to win are not open very long.  If it doesn't work this season, the Phillies may be looking for something drastic to change.  Too many players are getting paid too much for too long, and even though Joe Girardi is one of the most respected men in all of baseball, he might be the one to change.

2019 Pre-Season Profile: Philadelphia Phillies

#6

The Philadelphia Phillies followed up a surprisingly strong 2018 season by winning the Bryce Harper sweepstakes this offseason.  Will all their moves lead to another step forward in 2019?

2018 Predictions

3rd in NL East

This will be Gabe Kapler's only season as Phillies manager.

2018 Results

80-82, 3rd in NL East

I had the Phillies mostly predicted where they ended up, but finishing in 3rd doesn't tell the whole story of their season.  They were competing for the division title most of the season only to fall away down the stretch.  Their record ended up uner .500, but most of the season the talk of the NL East was the Phillies and Braves as the upstart surprises at the top of the division.  Gabe Kapler's early criticism quickly died off as the team found success.

Additions / Subtractions

Ownership for the Phillies made news early in the offseason claiming they were willing to spend "crazy money" over the offseason.  It took awhile, but crazy money they spent when they brought in Bryce Harper on a 13 year contract.  However, that was not the only move they made.  They also traded for what many consider the best catcher in baseball in J.T. Realmuto.  They have a new shortstop in Jean Segura, acquired in a trade with Seattle.  They solidified the back of their bullpen by bringing in David Robertson and rounded out their outfield by signing Andrew McCutchen.  They definitely spent some stupid money and made the most of it.

Most Important Hitter

Bryce Harper

He is the one that got all the money.  He is the one that everyone is watching.  He is their most important hitter.  This lineup is loaded, but it really only works if Harper produces in the middle of the lineup.  Not only is he the biggest name, but he is one of the only left-handed bats in the order.  Harper got this money hoping he jumps back up to his MVP level.

Most Important Pitcher

David Robertson

The main reason the Phillies started to fall apart down the stretch was a lack of a bullpen.  They couldn't finish a game.  David Robertson has been brought in to fix that.  He has been a closer, but he has also been a utility arm in the bullpen, pitching wherever he is needed.  He will be counted on this season to be the difference maker.

Prospect to Watch

Adonis Medina

One of the Phillies top prospects is 22 year old right-handed pitcher Adonis Medina.  Last season, he pitched exclusively in A ball and will start this season in AA, but if the Phillies are in the playoff hunt down the stretch, look for Medina to get a shot in the big leagues to be a spark plug in their bullpen with a shot at making their rotation in 2020.

2019 Prediction

1st in NL East, lose in NLDS

The NL East is going to be super competitive this season, and I see the Phillies being the team to emerge from the group.  Their lineup is just too loaded, and the top of their rotation is elite.  They are going to be hard to beat.  There is an argument that they are the most talented team now in the National League.  I am tempted to pick them to go all the way to the World Series, but these super teams never go all the way in year one.  They might be my 2020 World Series pick though.

Fearless Prediction

Aaron Nola will win the 2019 NL Cy Young.

I am a huge fan of Aaron Nola.  He basically came out of nowhere last year to have a huge season.  Everyone talks about Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer, but you might forget that Nola finished 3rd in the Cy Young race last season.  I see Nola being energized by their revamped offense to be even better and bring home the trophy in 2019.

2019 Pre-Season Profile: Miami Marlins

#28

The Miami Marlins have been working to completely remake their franchise ever since Derek Jeter and his ownership group took over the franchise before last offseason.  Now in year two after the complete teardown of their roster, will the Marlins start to show some results from trading away every recognizable face they had?

2018 Predictions

5th in NL East

Half of the Marlins' Opening Day starting lineup will not be on the roster by season's end.

2018 Results

63-98, 5th in NL East

The Marlins went from an interesting team on the verge of doing something great in 2017 to tearing it all down to nothing for 2018.  The new ownership group saw a lineup that wasn't sustainable financially.  What was left for the 2018 season was a Marlins team that resembled some of their early years.  A cheap, young roster with promise and the ability to compete maybe in a few years, but not at all competitive now.  There were a few veterans left on the roster, and I thought they would be gone before the season ended.  However, Justin Bour seemed to be the only to get out mid-season.  They seemed to keep the rest of the lineup in tact the rest of the season.

Additions / Subtractions

The main subtraction seemed to be final piece that needed to be moved from the epic teardown the year before.  J.T. Realmuto's trade to the Phillies brought back their new catcher, Jorge Alfaro, and some top prospects.  Outside of that, the only other moves made were signing some veterans to lead the kids, fill out the roster, and be trade bait come July.  This veteran crew includes Neil Walker, Curtis Granderson, and Sergio Romo.  The most notable change this year will have nothing to do with the roster.  New logo, new jerseys, and no more gigantic statue in centerfield of Marlins Park.

Most Important Hitter

Lewis Brinson

Of all the prospects brought back in the deals from last offseason, Lewis Brinson (acquired in the Christian Yelich deal with Milwaukee) was the biggest name and the most ready to make a major league impact.  He was their Opening Day centerfielder and stayed there most of the season.  However, he had far from a successful season.  Only tallying a .199 batting average and a 62 OPS+ (league average is 100), he was quite a disappointment for such a highly touted prospect.  Brinson has to make huge strides forward this season if he plans to stay a centerpiece of the Marlins' plans going forward.

Most Important Pitcher

Dan Straily

Dan Straily has been quite a journeyman considering he hasn't even reached 30 yet.  He has had one great year in 2016, his only year with the Reds.  The last couple seasons with the Marlins have been good but not great, posting an ERA+ just slightly below average.  If Straily comes out with a strong 2019, then he can help give the Marlins a much more successful season, and possibly be a trade piece at the deadline.  He needs to be above average to have a successful season though.

Prospect to Watch

Sixto Sanchez

The centerpiece of the J.T. Realmuto deal with the Phillies, Sixto Sanchez is thought to be one of the best pitching prospects in the league.  The 20 year old has been often compared to Pedro Martinez thanks to his slight stature and power arm.  After only throwing 46 innings in 2018 in the minors, and knowing how teams are trying to manipulate service time to delay free agency as much as possible, chances are the Marlins will be moving Sanchez along slowly throughout the 2019 season.  However, if the season goes really south for the Marlins and they need something to get the fans excited, they might not be able to help themselves and give Sixto a shot in the big leagues this year.

2019 Prediction

5th in NL East

The Marlins are still rebuilding and have a chance to be better than they were last season, but there is no way they finish anywhere other than the cellar of the NL East.  This has more to do with the strength of the rest of the division than the mediocrity of the Marlins.  All four of the other teams in this division will be competing for a playoff spot.  The Marlins are not there.  They will play better than last year, but might still finish with a worse record simply because of the competition in the division.

Fearless Prediction

The Marlins' starting rotation will all be under 30 years old by the end of the season.

There are only two starters right now that the Marlins have that are 30 years old or over (Dan Straily, Wei-Yin Chen).  With the pitchers the Marlins have that are getting ready to break into the big leagues, these two pitchers might be gone by the end of the season.  Straily will probably be traded, and Chen might just be released with how poorly he has pitched since he has come over from Baltimore.  In their place, look for guys like Sandy Alcantara, Nick Neidert, Jorge Guzman, and (like I said earlier) maybe even Sixto Sanchez to get to starts in their place.

2018 Pre-Season Profile: Miami Marlins

#30

It is a magical time of year.  Pitchers and catchers have reported to Spring Training, and the rest of the players are not far behind.  We are less than a week away from the first Spring Training game, and before we know it, we will be in the middle of another outstanding baseball season.  This offseason has been unlike any other, with many of the top free agents still looking for jobs as camps open.  Players are looking to cash in with big contracts while clubs are scared of signing the latest free agent bust.  The trade market has been rich, with many teams searching for alternate solutions to upgrade their roster.  As I start my pre-season profiles for each club, there are still many unanswered questions for many players and many teams.

As we go from last to first, we start with one of the most active teams of the offseason as they seemed determined to go from average and emerging to terrible and rebuilding.

My 2017 Predictions

4th in NL East

The Marlins will trade for Jose Quintana mid-season.

2017 Results
77-85, 2nd in NL East

The Marlins finished with almost the exact same record as they did in 2016, however the weak NL East had them finish in second.  After tragically losing one of the faces of the franchise in Jose Fernandez at the end of the 2016 season, their other face, Giancarlo Stanton, had a career year that ended in him winning the NL MVP award.  I thought the Marlins might make some moves to really try and compete, with the starting rotation being the biggest hole in their roster.  Instead of making a splash for a guy like Quintana, the splash came in the new ownership group that was in place by the time the season ended.

Additions / Subtractions

With Derek Jeter & Co. now owning the Marlins, the philosophy of the franchise took a complete 180.  Instead of trying to find new ways to complement their strong lineup, the new ownership group decided the status quo was not sustainable financially.  If they needed to shed payroll, they needed to just blow up the current core and start over.  That is exactly what they did.  Gone are All Star caliber players like Dee Gordon, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, and reigning MVP Stanton along with the hundreds of millions of dollars committed to them.  Prospects were brought back, but some of the trades were simply salary dumps when you see the level of prospects they got in return.  The franchise had a complete reset, with second baseman Starlin Castro being the only established major leaguer brought back in any transaction.

Most Important Hitter

J.T. Realmuto

Along with Justin Bour, Realmuto is one of only two remaining members of the former Marlins core still on the roster, and he is not happy about it.  He has been very vocal this offseason about the fact that he wants to be traded as well so he has a chance to compete.  This makes him valuable to the Marlins because if they do decide to move him (which might be necessary if he becomes a cancer in the locker room) he should bring back a decent haul.  Yelich brought back the best haul of the offseason trades.  A similar haul might be in the cards for Realmuto, a 27 year old catcher with pop getting ready to enter his prime.

Most Important Pitcher

Jose Urena

In a year where the pitching staff was the downfall of the Marlins, Urena was a bright spot in 2017, going well over 100 innings for the first time in his career.  He was effective in those innings, earning 14 wins, a 3.82 ERA, and a 106 ERA+.  This makes him the only Marlins pitcher with more than 10 starts that was above league average (ERA+ 100).  All of this is promising, considering he is only entering his age 26 season.  This may be the future ace of the staff if he isn't already.  He may be one of the few things Marlins fans have to look forward to.

Prospect to Watch

Lewis Brinson

By far, the best prospect the Marlins got in their wheeling and dealing this offseason was Lewis Brinson from the Brewers in the Yelich deal.  He has been one of the top prospects for the last few years in all of baseball, and he is slated to be the Marlins Opening Day centerfielder.  He has a real chance of becoming a star and a new face of the new Marlins for the foreseeable future.

2018 Prediction

5th in NL East

Almost by design, the Marlins have the worst roster in the league by a decent amount.  They seem to be trying to employ the Astros blueprint of success.  Tear down to nothing and rebuild around some top draft picks.  The problem with this method is it takes several years to see any results.  Expect at least two or three 100 loss seasons before the Marlins improve.

Fearless Prediction

Half of the Marlins Opening Day starting lineup will not be on the roster by season's end.

The Marlins can't be done unloading pieces.  They should probably pick up a couple veteran players that are still in free agency to fill out their roster so they can at least look respectable on Opening Day.  However, look for players like Martin Prado, Starlin Castro, J.T. Realmuto, Justin Bour, Dan Straily, Wei-Yin Chen, and whatever veterans they might pick up along the way to either be traded or dropped by season's end.