2023 Pre-Season Profile: Philadelphia Phillies

 #9

The Philadelphia Phillies snuck into the playoffs, got hot at the right time, and rode that wave all the way to the World Series.  Will 2023 show a repeat of that success?

2022 Predictions

#10 - 2nd in NL East, WILD CARD, lose in Wild Card Round

MIH - Bryce Harper

MIP - Ranger Suarez

PTW - Bryson Stott

2022 Results

#2 - 87-75, 3rd in NL East, WILD CARD, lost World Series

Highest WAR (Position) - J.T. Realmuto

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Aaron Nola

The Philadelphia Phillies saw the highest of highs and the lowest of lows in 2022.  After a disappointing start, the Phillies fired manager Joe Girardi.  New manager Rob Thomson turned the whole season around and helped them get that last Wild Card spot.  Bryce Harper got injured and didn't play a full season.  He was able to bat in the postseason, but that was it.  Then, they made it all the way to the World Series before finally losing to the Astros.  It was ultimately a successful season in Philly, even though it didn't really start that way.

Additions / Subtractions

Clubs run by Dave Dombrowski love to spend money, and that fact was shown this offseason.  The Phillies may have spent more than anyone else, first landing what many thought was the grand prize of free agency, shortstop Trea Turner.  However, they didn't stop there.  They also brought in starting pitchers Taijuan Walker and Matt Strahm.  They traded for reliver Gregory Soto and signed reliever Craig Kimbrel.  To add depth, they signed utilityman Josh Harrison.  They did lose a few from their roster, like Jean Segura, Kyle Gibson, Brad Hand, Noah Syndergaard, and David Robertson.  That's a lot of turnover for a pennant-winning roster, but it's safe to say most of these moves were upgrades.

Most Important Hitter

Nick Castellanos

The biggest roster impact heading into the 2023 season might be Bryce Harper's offseason surgery costing him possibly the first half of the season.  The Phillies will be looking for someone to pick up the production in the lineup.  A great candidate for that would be Nick Castellanos.  One of the prizes for the Phillies in last year's offseason, Castellanos's 2022 season was not up to his 5 year, $100 million payday.  His 95 OPS+ was his worst OPS+ of his career, and his first under 100 since 2015.  He had an All Star season in 2021 that included a 12th place MVP finish and a Silver Slugger; definitely the best season of his career.  The question is if he can return to that 2021 level.  The Phillies could sure use a big year from Castellanos to compensate for the loss of Harper for the start of the season.

Most Important Pitcher

Zack Wheeler

The Phillies have several top end starters, but when they are all at their best, Zack Wheeler is the top of the class.  The prize of the 2020 offseason free agent class, Wheeler lived up to the contract in 2021, leading the league in complete games, shutouts, innings pitched, finishing 2nd in the Cy Young voting and even getting some MVP votes.  Last season saw a few bumps along the way as he was not able to make all his starts.  According to ERA+, he wasn't that much worse (150 in 2021, 144 in 2022), but his drop off in production was felt.  If he can regain his 2021 production, then this rotation goes from really good to elite.

Prospect to Watch

Andrew Painter

When you are so focused on winning in the here and now, the farm system usually suffers.  The Phillies farm system is ranked in the bottom third of the league, despite that system being headlined by Andrew Painter.  Painter is the #6 prospect in the Top 100 and the top pitching prospect in the league.  Painter is a unicorn in some ways.  Drafted in the first round in 2021 out of high school, Painter is knocking on the door of the majors at just 19 years old.  It takes a special talent to advance that quickly, but this 6'7" righty is that.  He entered camp with a realistic shot at making the starting rotation on Opening Day, but a UCL sprain early on in camp has everyone nervous.  At best, it will delay his debut till mid-season.  At worst, he will need Tommy John surgery and we might not see him pitch till 2025.  Everyone is hoping for the former, especially since the Phillies were counting on him to bring a spark to their rotation this season.

2023 Prediction

2nd in NL East, WILD CARD, lose in Wild Card Round

The Phillies are too good to have too much of a World Series hangover.  At the same time, there are several questions entering the season that could keep them from advancing too far.  The Phillies are definitely in the category of "superteam" with the amount of money they have spent over the years.  With that said, the success of the Phillies this season feels directly tied to how well they can withstand the absence of Bryce Harper.  They are hoping he can return to the lineup by the end of May, but he may be relegated to DH all season as he recovers from Tommy John surgery.  Their young spark in the rotation might be lost before the year even starts.  Like with any team in the top ten, they could end up winning the whole thing, but I don't think the stars are aligned quite right for the Phillies in 2023.

Fearless Prediction

Trea Turner will be a 30/30 player in 2023.

One of the most dynamic athletes in all of baseball, Trea Turner got a huge payday this offseason to return to the east coast.  Who cares how much it cost, the Phillies scored big picking him up to be their their shortstop for the next 11 seasons.  Turner seems to be a prime candidate to have a 30/30 season (30 home runs, 30 stolen bases).  This feat has happened 65 times in MLB history, most recently in 2021 by Cedric Mullins of the Orioles.  Turner has come close, but he has never reached these two marks at the same time before, the closest being 2021 when he had 28 homers and 32 steals.  That was also the last time he changed teams.  Look for him to once again show off for his new team with a career best season.

2021 Pre-Season Profile: Philadelphia Phillies

 #14

The Philadelphia Phillies extended their playoff drought in 2020 despite having a talented roster built to win now.  Will 2021 finally see them break through to the postseason and fulfill the promise of their talent?

2020 Predictions

#4 - 1st in NL East, lose in NLCS

MIH - Andrew McCutchen

MIP - Zack Wheeler

PTW - Alec Bohm

2020 Results

#18 - 28-32, 3rd in NL East

Every year, I think it's time for the Phillies to break out and make a deep run in the playoffs, and every year they disappoint me.  They keep adding elite pieces, and last year it was the addition of manager Joe Girardi.  There didn't seem to be much difference on the field though.  My highlighted players even had great years.  Andrew McCutchen played well.  Not great, but good.  Zack Wheeler was their best player.  Alec Bohm emerged as their everyday third baseman and a future star.  With all that said, they still feel well short.

Additions / Subtractions

The Phillies for the most part made news this offseason in their desire to change as little as possible.  They re-signed star free agents J.T. Realmuto and Didi Gregorius.  They brought in veteran starters Matt Moore and Chase Anderson to replace departing Jake Arrieta.  The one upgrade they made was closer Archie Bradley being brought in.  Other than that, their roster is exactly the same as 2020.

Most Important Hitter

Bryce Harper

Bryce Harper is entering year 3 of his 13 year megadeal he signed with the Phillies.  This deal is paying him like one of the top 5-10 best players in the league.  The problem with that is his production on the field has yet to reach the promise of his paycheck.  In the 5 seasons since his MVP in 2015 where he nearly posted a 10 WAR season, he has only posted two 4 WAR seasons (the rest are under 2), received MVP votes in only one season, and has simply not been able to match his reputation.  The way the Phillies get over the hump and become an elite team in the league is if Bryce Harper gets back to being an elite player.  If Harper is just good, they Phillies will be just good.

Most Important Pitcher

Archie Bradley

The bullpen has been one of the areas that has ruined many a recent Phillies' season.  Their starting pitching has been solid, led by Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola.  They just can't hold a lead.  Archie Bradley is the latest arm to be brought in to try and stabilize the end of games for the Phillies.  He has been a solid reliever everywhere he has pitched.  If he is able to continue to show the consistency he has displayed throughout his career, he might finally be the answer for the Phillies' bullpen.

Prospect to Watch

Mickey Moniak

The Phillies have a lackluster farm system, only boasting two Top 100 prospects.  Although one of those prospects (starting pitcher Spencer Howard) should have a big league impact in 2021, the most fascinating prospect to watch is Mickey Moniak.  Although only the 12th ranked prospect in the Phillies' system, what makes him intriguing is the fact that he was the #1 overall pick in the 2016 Draft.  Drafted straight out of high school, this outfielder has struggled to develop in the minors.  In 2020, he finally made his big league debut, appearing in 8 games.  Now he is competing for a roster spot and a possible starting job in centerfield.  He is still only 22 years old.  There is still the talent of a #1 overall pick in there.  If he gets his shot, it will be fascinating to watch if he shows more of that promise than he has been able to display at other levels of the organization.

2021 Prediction

4th in NL East

I have predicted the Phillies to win this division the last two seasons.  Their talent is good enough to be a playoff team.  The problem is they are playing in what might be the toughest division in league history.  Will I be surprised if they make the playoffs?  No.  However, I am done predicting it until I see it.

Fearless Prediction

Joe Girardi will be fired after the season.

The Phillies have built a roster to win now.  They brought in a manager in Joe Girardi before last season to put them over the hump and get them to the playoffs.  These windows for teams to win are not open very long.  If it doesn't work this season, the Phillies may be looking for something drastic to change.  Too many players are getting paid too much for too long, and even though Joe Girardi is one of the most respected men in all of baseball, he might be the one to change.

2019 Pre-Season Profile: Philadelphia Phillies

#6

The Philadelphia Phillies followed up a surprisingly strong 2018 season by winning the Bryce Harper sweepstakes this offseason.  Will all their moves lead to another step forward in 2019?

2018 Predictions

3rd in NL East

This will be Gabe Kapler's only season as Phillies manager.

2018 Results

80-82, 3rd in NL East

I had the Phillies mostly predicted where they ended up, but finishing in 3rd doesn't tell the whole story of their season.  They were competing for the division title most of the season only to fall away down the stretch.  Their record ended up uner .500, but most of the season the talk of the NL East was the Phillies and Braves as the upstart surprises at the top of the division.  Gabe Kapler's early criticism quickly died off as the team found success.

Additions / Subtractions

Ownership for the Phillies made news early in the offseason claiming they were willing to spend "crazy money" over the offseason.  It took awhile, but crazy money they spent when they brought in Bryce Harper on a 13 year contract.  However, that was not the only move they made.  They also traded for what many consider the best catcher in baseball in J.T. Realmuto.  They have a new shortstop in Jean Segura, acquired in a trade with Seattle.  They solidified the back of their bullpen by bringing in David Robertson and rounded out their outfield by signing Andrew McCutchen.  They definitely spent some stupid money and made the most of it.

Most Important Hitter

Bryce Harper

He is the one that got all the money.  He is the one that everyone is watching.  He is their most important hitter.  This lineup is loaded, but it really only works if Harper produces in the middle of the lineup.  Not only is he the biggest name, but he is one of the only left-handed bats in the order.  Harper got this money hoping he jumps back up to his MVP level.

Most Important Pitcher

David Robertson

The main reason the Phillies started to fall apart down the stretch was a lack of a bullpen.  They couldn't finish a game.  David Robertson has been brought in to fix that.  He has been a closer, but he has also been a utility arm in the bullpen, pitching wherever he is needed.  He will be counted on this season to be the difference maker.

Prospect to Watch

Adonis Medina

One of the Phillies top prospects is 22 year old right-handed pitcher Adonis Medina.  Last season, he pitched exclusively in A ball and will start this season in AA, but if the Phillies are in the playoff hunt down the stretch, look for Medina to get a shot in the big leagues to be a spark plug in their bullpen with a shot at making their rotation in 2020.

2019 Prediction

1st in NL East, lose in NLDS

The NL East is going to be super competitive this season, and I see the Phillies being the team to emerge from the group.  Their lineup is just too loaded, and the top of their rotation is elite.  They are going to be hard to beat.  There is an argument that they are the most talented team now in the National League.  I am tempted to pick them to go all the way to the World Series, but these super teams never go all the way in year one.  They might be my 2020 World Series pick though.

Fearless Prediction

Aaron Nola will win the 2019 NL Cy Young.

I am a huge fan of Aaron Nola.  He basically came out of nowhere last year to have a huge season.  Everyone talks about Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer, but you might forget that Nola finished 3rd in the Cy Young race last season.  I see Nola being energized by their revamped offense to be even better and bring home the trophy in 2019.

2016 Pre-Season Profile: Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies had the worst record in baseball in 2015 as they started their massive rebuilding process.  Will 2016 bring any better luck?

Last Season

My 2015 Prediction: 5th in NL East

2015 Result: 63-99, 5th in NL East

Finally, the Philadelphia Phillies core that led them to a World Series in 2008 aged to the point that they had to move on.  Jimmy Rollins went to the Dodgers before the season started, while Cole Hamels and Chase Utley were traded mid-season.  The Phillies are officially in full rebuild mode.  They finished with the worst record in baseball, which gives them the first pick in 2016 draft.

2016 Additions / Subtractions

The Phillies continued their rebuild this offseason by trading away closer Ken Giles for more prospects, including former #1 pick Mark Appel and left-handed starter Brett Oberholtzer.  They also picked up some veterans to go with their young pieces like Charlie Morton and Peter Bourjos.

Most Important Hitter

Odubel Herrera

Odubel Herrera took advantage of the rebuilding process by becoming the Phillies' best player in his rookie season.  He is looking like he could be a potential centerpiece of this new Phillies roster.  He has to keep developing though for that to be the case.  Look for him to be the Phillies' All Star representative in 2016.  If not, he might not be a part of their plans moving forward.

Most Important Pitcher

Aaron Nola

Just as Herrera established himself as a potential cornerstone of the Phillies' future offensively, Aaron Nola showed the potential to be the cornerstone of the Phillies' future rotation.  Look for Nola to take a few steps forward in his first full season in the big leagues.  He has the potential to be Phillies' next great ace.

Player to Watch

J.P. Crawford

The Phillies' top prospect, and top five prospect in all of baseball, will most likely make his debut in 2016, especially considering what kind of season the Phillies are planning on having.  The future is now for this shortstop, who could quickly join names like Correa and Lindor as the next great wave of great shortstops.

2016 Prediction

5th in NL East

The NL East has two teams that are completely starting over in the Braves and the Phillies.  The biggest question is which one is going to be worse this year.  I am thinking it will once again be the Phillies taking the bottom spot and very well could be the worst team in baseball once again.  With the way they are starting this whole thing over, it might not be till 2020 before the Phillies are relevant again.

Fearless Prediction

This will be Ryan Howard's last season in Philadelphia.

This might not be that bold of a prediction, but it is true.  Ryan Howard and catcher Carlos Ruiz are the last players left from the Phillies' World Series runs.  Howard is getting older and is in the last year of big superstar contract.  He will either be traded at the Deadline this year, be signed by someone else next offseason, or retire.  Whatever team he ends up on after the Phillies, it will most likely be an AL team where he can DH.  Maybe Big Papi's replacement in Boston?

2015 Pre-Season Profile: Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies have been on a steady decline since their last playoff appearance in 2011.  Will 2015 start to see a turnaround, or will do they have further to fall before they can start to get better?

Last Season

73-89, 5th in NL East

In his first full season as manager, Hall of Fame player Ryne Sandberg learned first hand what many others have been saying about the Phillies' roster.  The core that led them on an amazing run from 2007-2011 has aged and is not productive anymore.  However, they have committed too much money to these players (Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Carlos Ruiz, Marlon Byrd, Cliff Lee, Jonathan Papelbon) to really go out and improve the aging roster.  Essentially, loyalty is killing their team right now.  They are just stuck right now, which was shown by a second straight 89 loss season.

2015 Additions / Subtractions

There is a blueprint that has been used in the past to improve a team in the Phillies' position.  Trade away your veteran players to teams ready to make a playoff run and bring back prospects to build a new core.  It takes some time, but it's effective.  They were able to essentially do this by trading Jimmy Rollins to the Dodgers and Marlon Byrd to the Reds.  However, there is too much money (and baggage) attached with players like Ryan Howard and Cliff Lee to be traded in this way.  They did bring in veteran starter Aaron Harang this offseason, but the real story of the Phillies is what moves they didn't make.  They needed to overhaul their lineup, but they are bringing back the same roster (with the exception of Rollins and Byrd).  Their best player right now, Cole Hamels, the only core player still in his prime, is shockingly still on the roster when a trade involving him could single-handedly provide the Phillies with two or three top prospects ready to break out.  He still might get traded during the season, but he won't be worth as much as he was in the offseason.  In a lot of ways, they are failing at this rebuilding project.

Most Important Hitter

Chase Utley

Of all the aging core player of the Phillies, Chase Utley is one of the only ones still playing at a productive level.  Utley made the All Star Team in 2014 for the first time since 2010 which showed he still has some gas left in the tank.  The question is how much?  If Utley is able to give a strong 2015 season, one of two things can happen.  First, he could take pressure off some of the younger players that are bound to populate the Phillies' lineup this year.  Second, he could show another team he is worth trading for in the stretch run of the season which can bring back more younger talent to Philly.  It could be an interesting story to watch this season.

Most Important Pitcher

Jonathan Papelbon

Jonathan Papelbon has more than overstayed his welcome in Philadelphia.  Even he has to be shocked he is still on their roster.  However, his performance this season is important to the Phillies in the same way Cole Hamels is important.  Papelbon will most likely not end the season on the Phillies' roster.  The better he plays, the more he is worth on the trade market.

Player to Watch

Aaron Nola

With the possibility of Hamels getting traded, the future ace of the Philllies might be emerging in 2015.  Aaron Nola was the Phillies' 1st round choice just last season and is already primed to make an impact in the big leagues.  With the type of season the Phillies are expected to have, be prepared to see guys like Nola and maybe even top prospect J.P. Crawford (although he isn't supposed to be ready until next season) pop up all over the diamond in 2015.

Prediction

5th in NL East

This may have been the easiest prediction I had to make in 2015.  To answer my question from earlier, I think the Phillies still have farther to fall before they start getting better.  For this to change, they either need their aging veterans to produce or leave, and it really doesn't look like either is going to be happening soon.  The only option is wait it out and hope to emerge in a few seasons as the latest young, up-and-coming team sometime around 2018.