Wednesday, March 3, 2021

2021 Pre-Season Profile: Baltimore Orioles

#25
The Baltimore Orioles have spent most of the last 5 years as one of the worst teams in baseball.  Are they finally ready to turn the corner and start to compete again?

2020 Predictions
#30 - 5th in AL East
MIH - Hanser Alberto
MIP - John Means
PTW - Ryan Mountcastle
FP - The Orioles will cut more payroll than is earned by the rest of their 25 man roster.

2020 Results
#26 - 25-35 - 4th in AL East
The Orioles surprised everyone and jumped out to a hot start in the COVID-shortened 2020 season.  Eventually they cooled off, and probably thanks to the short season, did not have enough time to fall all the way back to the cellar of the division.  It was good to see the Orioles relevant again, even if it was just for a couple weeks.

Additions / Subtractions
The Orioles made some small adjustments to a budding young roster.  They replaced shortstop Jose Iglesias with veteran Freddy Galvis.  Second baseman Hanser Alberto moved on to the Royals.  On the pitching side, the Orioles traded away Alex Cobb while signing Felix Hernandez on a minor league deal.  The biggest addition for the Orioles this season wasn't a transaction at all.  Trey Mancini is back after a year of battling colon cancer.  He will be the strong veteran presence in the young clubhouse in Baltimore.

Most Important Pitcher
Anthony Santander
Through the 2020 season, Anthony Santander led the Orioles' roster in WAR while starting to emerge as a low key potential star.  Entering his age 26 season, he has been an above average hitter (in terms of OPS+) in both of his full seasons so far.  The Orioles are starting to reach that point in their rebuild where they are starting to see which young players they can start to count on to be a part of that young core moving forward.  Santander seems to be one of the centerpieces.

Most Important Pitcher
John Means
The Orioles have some great young pitching starting to work their way through the farm system.  At the top of the system though, right now they are a little thin.  Counting on guys like King Felix and Wade LeBlanc to be key pieces in the rotation are showing how they are just waiting for the young kids to be ready.  The one young pitcher that has started to establish himself in the big leagues is John Means.  After being an All Star in 2019, he had an average season in 2020.  He needs to bounce back and emerge as an ace to be a part of the plans moving forward.

Prospect to Watch
Adley Rutschman
At some point in the 2021 season, the Orioles' news cycle will start to focus on when it will be time to start the clock on former #1 overall pick Adley Rutschman.  The top overall pick in 2019 and the #2 overall prospect in all of baseball, Rutschman is a switch hitting catcher that is the future face of the Baltimore Orioles.  The only question is if he will announce his presence with authority this season or next.

2021 Prediction
4th in AL East
I fully realize predicting the Orioles to finish above the Red Sox this season is quite a bit of a stretch.  The Red Sox are pretty easily the more talented roster.  With that said, the Orioles had some pretty decent success in 2020, and for a young team like this to get a string of success like that, the confidence can only build knowing that they are capable of winning.  The Orioles seem to finally be moving up, while the Red Sox seem stagnant at best.  For that alone, it was worth predicting the Orioles to repeat in fourth place.

Fearless Prediction
Trey Mancini will win Comeback Player of the Year.
Okay, this isn't a very bold prediction but it is worth mentioning.  As soon as Trey Mancini sees the field in a regular season game and shows any shadow of the player he was before cancer struck, this award will pretty much be in the bag.  And fully deserved.


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