2021 Pre-Season Profile: Baltimore Orioles

#25

The Baltimore Orioles have spent most of the last 5 years as one of the worst teams in baseball.  Are they finally ready to turn the corner and start to compete again?

2020 Predictions

#30 - 5th in AL East

MIH - Hanser Alberto

MIP - John Means

PTW - Ryan Mountcastle

FP - The Orioles will cut more payroll than is earned by the rest of their 25 man roster.

2020 Results

#26 - 25-35 - 4th in AL East

The Orioles surprised everyone and jumped out to a hot start in the COVID-shortened 2020 season.  Eventually they cooled off, and probably thanks to the short season, did not have enough time to fall all the way back to the cellar of the division.  It was good to see the Orioles relevant again, even if it was just for a couple weeks.

Additions / Subtractions

The Orioles made some small adjustments to a budding young roster.  They replaced shortstop Jose Iglesias with veteran Freddy Galvis.  Second baseman Hanser Alberto moved on to the Royals.  On the pitching side, the Orioles traded away Alex Cobb while signing Felix Hernandez on a minor league deal.  The biggest addition for the Orioles this season wasn't a transaction at all.  Trey Mancini is back after a year of battling colon cancer.  He will be the strong veteran presence in the young clubhouse in Baltimore.

Most Important Pitcher

Anthony Santander

Through the 2020 season, Anthony Santander led the Orioles' roster in WAR while starting to emerge as a low key potential star.  Entering his age 26 season, he has been an above average hitter (in terms of OPS+) in both of his full seasons so far.  The Orioles are starting to reach that point in their rebuild where they are starting to see which young players they can start to count on to be a part of that young core moving forward.  Santander seems to be one of the centerpieces.

Most Important Pitcher

John Means

The Orioles have some great young pitching starting to work their way through the farm system.  At the top of the system though, right now they are a little thin.  Counting on guys like King Felix and Wade LeBlanc to be key pieces in the rotation are showing how they are just waiting for the young kids to be ready.  The one young pitcher that has started to establish himself in the big leagues is John Means.  After being an All Star in 2019, he had an average season in 2020.  He needs to bounce back and emerge as an ace to be a part of the plans moving forward.

Prospect to Watch

Adley Rutschman

At some point in the 2021 season, the Orioles' news cycle will start to focus on when it will be time to start the clock on former #1 overall pick Adley Rutschman.  The top overall pick in 2019 and the #2 overall prospect in all of baseball, Rutschman is a switch hitting catcher that is the future face of the Baltimore Orioles.  The only question is if he will announce his presence with authority this season or next.

2021 Prediction

4th in AL East

I fully realize predicting the Orioles to finish above the Red Sox this season is quite a bit of a stretch.  The Red Sox are pretty easily the more talented roster.  With that said, the Orioles had some pretty decent success in 2020, and for a young team like this to get a string of success like that, the confidence can only build knowing that they are capable of winning.  The Orioles seem to finally be moving up, while the Red Sox seem stagnant at best.  For that alone, it was worth predicting the Orioles to repeat in fourth place.

Fearless Prediction

Trey Mancini will win Comeback Player of the Year.

Okay, this isn't a very bold prediction but it is worth mentioning.  As soon as Trey Mancini sees the field in a regular season game and shows any shadow of the player he was before cancer struck, this award will pretty much be in the bag.  And fully deserved.

2020 Pre-Season Profile: Baltimore Orioles

#30

I wasn't planning on writing my baseball preview articles this season.  I didn't think I was going to have the time (and I didn't).  Then the whole world shut down with a pandemic, and the baseball season was indefinitely postponed.  Needless to say, I all of a sudden have some time on my hands.  So to celebrate the week the baseball season was supposed to start, I am instead starting my slightly delayed look at the season that will be ... whenever we get around to it ... if we get around to it.  (My money is on Opening Day being the 4th of July.)

It is so disappointing to see this season delayed because there were so many fascinating storylines to follow.  Two of the biggest brands and best teams in baseball got even better by each adding one of the best players in the game.  Speaking of the best players in the game, the undisputed #1 of that list finally got a formidable right hand man.  Then there are the teams mired in controversy after a cheating scandal that led to year-long suspensions and references to Pete Rose and Shoeless Joe.  There are a couple superteams and a handful that are in the middle of a full rebuild, but you also have over 20 teams you could legitimately argue are serious playoff contenders.  No wonder rumors are flying to expand the playoffs (a plan which I love, but I don't think it will actually happen until baseball expands to 32 teams).  Even the rebuilding teams are starting to have some reasons to be excited as the stockpiling of prospects are starting to hit the big league field, however this delayed and most likely truncated season will hold back the development of a lot of young talen.  It is going to be an exciting season ... whenever it gets started.

With all that said, we are starting at the bottom and looking at the teams that really have the least to be excited about.  The Baltimore Orioles have been in full rebuild mode for several years now, finishing in the cellar three straight years and bottoming out in 2018 when they lost 115 games.  Last season saw a new GM and manager, but it also saw another 100 loss season.  Will 2020 bring a noticeable improvement or more of the same?

2019 Predictions

#30 - 5th in AL East

MIH: Chris Davis

MIP: Alex Cobb

PTW: Dillon Tate

FP: The Orioles will pick in the top 5 in the MLB Draft for five straight seasons.

2019 Results

#29 - 54-108, 5th in AL East

The Orioles waited way too long to start their rebuild which almost guaranteed they were facing some ridiculously lean years for quite some time.  The players I predicted their success would be dependent on failed miserably.  Chris Davis followed up the historically bad 2018 with a slightly better but still really bad 2019.  The pure power hitter hit below .180 for the second straight year while also failing to top the 20 home run mark, finishing with a -1.2 WAR.  Entering his age 34 season with three years left on a historically bad 7 year, $161 million deal, he is untradeable and probably uncuttable.  As far their Most Important Pitcher, Alex Cobb only pitched in three games before the rest of the season was lost to a hip injury.  He is also entering his age 34 season and signed through 2022, although on a slightly more bearable deal.  Even my pick for their Prospect to Watch floundered as Dillon Tate, once a highly-touted prospect, could only get 21 innings in.  He is barely staying in the top 30 of Baltimore's prospect list.  There was very little to be excited about in 2019 for the Orioles.

Additions / Subtractions

The Orioles also did not do much over the offseason to excite their fan base.  Their best hitter in 2019, Jonathan Villar, was traded to Miami for a minor leaguer.  The pitcher who had been touted as their ace of the future (although never fully living up to the hype), Dylan Bundy, was traded to the Angels.  Coming in were only veteran placeholders like shortstop Jose Iglesias and starting pitcher Wade LeBlanc.

Most Important Hitter

Hanser Alberto

Last year, I said the Orioles' most important players were the guys that could build trade stock so they could bring back some value.  They don't really have any of those anymore like I already said.  It is now time for the Orioles to take a true step forward, and that means players like Hanser Alberto need to continue to develop into potential stars.  Alberto's success last season allowed for the Orioles to trade Jonathan Villar and make Alberto their everyday second baseman.  He was definitely a bright spot in 2019, hitting over .300 with 12 homers and 51 RBI's.  If the Orioles are going to be better this year, players like Hanser Alberto, Austin Hays, and Anthony Santander need to prove they are ready to be daily contributors and possible stars.

Most Important Pitcher

John Means

If Alberto was a bright spot among the hitters, John Means was definitely the bright spot in the pitching staff.  The Orioles' lone All Star in 2019, Means had a great season, posting an ERA+ of 131 and finishing 2nd in the Rookie of the Year vote behind only Yordan Alvarez of the Astros.  Now with Dylan Bundy gone and Alex Cobb coming off injury, Means will be looked at as the ace heading into the season.  If he continues to develop, he is up to the task and could be the anchor a young team like this needs to move forward.

Prospect to Watch

Ryan Mountcastle

The Orioles have four prospects in the top 100, with last year's #1 overall pick Adley Rutschman topping out at #4.  However, Ryan Mountcastle is the one closest to the big leagues.  A former first round pick in 2015, this first baseman has hit at every level, even winning the AAA MVP last season and the Orioles Minor League Player of the Year award.  At some point in 2020, the Orioles will give up on Chris Davis, either by permanently benching him or cutting him and eating the money.  Either way, he will not block Ryan Mountcastle from making the big leagues for long.  He is a future cornerstone the Orioles will try and build on.

2020 Prediction

5th in AL East

This year will be another year of disappointment for the Orioles.  They seem to be on the trajectory the Astros took at the beginning of the 2010's.  Be really bad for 3-5 years and build up draft picks and prospects that will hopefully lead the team to the promised land at some point in the next 10 years.  The Orioles have already bottomed out, but they aren't ready to get better yet.  Look for this to be the third year in a row they earn a top five draft pick.

Fearless Prediction

The Orioles will cut more payroll than is earned by the rest of their 25 man roster.

Chris Davis is set to make $23 million this year and still has $69 million on his contract.  If he gets cut, those numbers very easily could be greater than the rest of the roster.  If Alex Cobb gets cut too (which is possible if he doesn't bounce back from his injury), then the Orioles will definitely be paying more money to players not in uniform than they will for players that are.  It is never a good thing, but it is sometimes necessary to take the steps forward a franchise needs.

2019 Pre-Season Profile: Baltimore Orioles

#30

Today might be Oscar Sunday in the movie world, but this weekend also started Spring Training games in baseball!  This is one of my favorite times of year.  The longest, most grueling season of all the sports brings about optimism and hope for all 30 teams.

Spring Training comes at the end of a wild off-season that saw two of the game's superstars change teams (well, one isn't quite settled yet).  Let me wrap up the off-season in one sentence.  The news of the off-season was more about how there was very little action once again as the market slowed to a halt waiting for the big names to sign while the big names had an epic stare down waiting to see who would sign first so the other could ask for more money and so many teams were interested they didn't want to sign anyone else until they knew for a fact they wouldn't be getting the superstars so many solid players are still sitting unsigned even though camp has already opened for all 30 teams.  That's the story of the 2019 off-season in one big run-on sentence for you.

Each season, I walk through the league and give a preview of each team's upcoming season and how they will fare.  This season feels a little more unpredictable than most with so many teams showing they are ready to compete.  We will go through the league from the bottom to the top, ending with my prediction for this year's World Series champion.

Starting at the bottom means starting with my predicted worst team in the league this upcoming season.  It may just be the same as the worst team in the league last season.

2018 Predictions

4th in AL East

Manny Machado, Adam Jones, and Zach Britton will all end the season on the Orioles' roster.

2018 Results

47-115, 5th in AL East

I knew the Orioles were on the decline heading into 2018, but 2018 was an all-out failure of epic proportions.  The 2018 Orioles had the 15th worst season in baseball history, and outside of the 2003 Tigers that lost 119 games, they had the worst winning percentage of any team since the 1960's.  It was an all-time horrible season.  Only two players on their team posted a WAR above 2.0, and both of those players (Manny Machado and Kevin Gausman) were traded at the Trade Deadline.  That leads me to my other prediction for last season.  The Orioles held on way too long before finally deciding to try to rebuild.  I thought they were going to continue to live in denial and refuse to trade their top players for the prospects needed to start over.  However, when you are that bad, it is hard to live in denial.  Machado and Britton were traded, along with Gausman, Brad Brach, and (surprisingly) Jonathan Schoop, who they gave up on after one disappointing season.  That helped start the rebuild of a lackluster farm system.

Additions / Subtractions

When a team like the Orioles opt to tear down and re-build, especially after that awful 2018 season, the subtractions far outweigh the additions.  In addition to the crew traded mid-season last year, the O's also said goodbye to infielder Tim Beckham and Adam Jones, the face of the franchise for most of the last decade.  The other notable subtractions bring about the most notable additions.  2018 saw the end of GM Dan Duquette and manager Buck Showalter.  Replacing these two old school baseball guys are two new school thinkers, new GM Mike Elias and new manager Brandon Hyde, formerly the bench coach for the Cubs.

Most Important Hitter

Chris Davis

Although the rebuild has started, the Orioles have a few bad contracts on the books with some underwhelming veterans that they would love to move.  The biggest of these is Chris Davis.  Davis had a historically bad year in 2018, hitting only .168 while striking out 192 times.  His strikeouts actually were higher than his batting average.  If that isn't an MLB record, it should be.  To top it off, he got paid $23 million for this production, which resulted in a -2.8 WAR, and is signed thru 2022.  This may go down as the worst contract in baseball history.  At this point, the only way Chris Davis can be valuable to the Orioles is play well enough to give him any sort of trade value so they might be able to get a prospect or two for him instead of just releasing him and eating all that money.  Davis's production (or lack of) will be one of the more interesting stories to watch throughout the Orioles' season.

Most Important Pitcher

Alex Cobb

Alex Cobb is in a similar position as Chris Davis.  Cobb signed late last offseason with the Orioles for 4 years, $57 million.  It seemed like a decent deal considering his production up to that point.  However, he was one of many disappointments in Baltimore.  Also, his signing was strange as they should have been working to rebuild, not sign veteran starters that won't be around long enough to be relevant.  Cobb needs a bounce back season so he can build up some trade value and be moved for pieces that will impact the Orioles' future.

Prospect to Watch

Dillon Tate

This season is not going to be a good one for the Orioles, however they have the potential of being pretty exciting come the second half of the season.  Six of the Orioles' top eight prospects are either scheduled to be ready for the big leagues in 2019 or have already had a taste of big league ball.  I was tempted to go with one of their top prospects here, like outfielder Yusniel Diaz (acquired in the Machado deal) or third baseman Ryan Mountcastle (2015 1st round pick), however they probably won't see the big leagues until 2020 to save some service time.  Instead, the player worth watching is going to be Dillon Tate.  At one point, Tate was the 4th overall pick in the 2015 draft by the Rangers and was thought to be one of the top power arms in the minors.  However, some struggles with injuries and inconsistent velocity have led to two different trades in his short career; first going to the Yankees in 2016 for Carlos Beltran, then to the Orioles last year in the Zach Britton deal.  If Tate can stay healthy and recapture what made him such a touted prospect, he could be a pleasant surprise for the O's in 2019.

2019 Prediction

5th in AL East

There are a lot of unknowns coming up in the 2019 season.  However, one of the safest bets of the upcoming season is that the Orioles will finish in the AL East cellar.  Denying the thought of rebuilding for so long and refusing to build for the future has left a below average farm system and a less than competitive major league roster.  They are going to be bad, and it might end up worse than last year.

Fearless Prediction

The Orioles will pick in the top 5 in the MLB Draft for five straight seasons.

This is a long term rebuild in Baltimore.  It is going to take them awhile to be competitive again.  Also, being historically bad to build up a farm system has been proven to work (look at the Astros and Nationals).  That is what the Orioles need to do.  They already have the top pick this year.  They have a good chance at losing their way to the top pick in next year's draft as well.  Their prospects will start to work their way to the big leagues in the next couple years, but this farm system has little elite talent.  It is going to take a couple waves of prospects to get them back to being competitive, especially in that division.  Look for the Orioles to be one of the worst teams in baseball for the foreseeable future.  Trust the process!