2023 Pre-Season Profile: Baltimore Orioles

 #11

The Baltimore Orioles were by far the most surprising team in 2022, almost making the playoffs after a 110 loss season the year before.  Can they make another leap and reach the postseason in 2023?

2022 Predictions

#25 - 5th in AL East

MIH - Cedric Mullins

MIP - John Means

PTW - Adley Rutschman

2022 Results

#14 - 83-79, 5th in AL East

Highest WAR (Position) - Adley Rutschman

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Cionel Perez

The Baltimore Orioles hadn't had a winning record since 2016 when they lost to the Blue Jays and Jose Bautista's bat flip in the Wild Card Game.  Outside of the COVID-shortened 2020 season, the Orioles had lost more than 100 games for 3 straight seasons, earning the first overall pick twice, including the 2022 Draft.  So how did they go from 110 losses to the last AL team eliminated from playoff contention in one season?  Adley Rutschman.  No one player had a greater singular impact on their team than the arrival of Adley Rutschman.  He didn't make his big league debut till the end of May, and yet the former #1 overall pick was by far the Orioles best player.  He was their best hitter, he managed the pitching staff behind the plate.  If it wasn't for the superhuman season from Julio Rodriguez, Rutschman would have been an easy pick for Rookie of the Year.  With that said, the Orioles understood the goal wasn't to compete in 2022, but to compete for the next decade.  So instead of sending off prospects at the Trade Deadline to make a run, the Orioles instead sold off their closer Jorge Lopez and the former face of the franchise Trey Mancini.  Yet they still had a shot at a playoff spot in the last week of the season.

Additions / Subtractions

The Orioles have so much young talent, their offseason just needed to complement what they already had.  They brought in pitchers Kyle Gibson and Cole Irvin to bolster the rotation.  They signed second baseman Adam Frazier and traded for catcher James McCann to provide some veteran presence and depth.  The only significant subtraction was veteran second baseman Rougned Odor.

Most Important Hitter

Gunnar Henderson

It's rare that a rookie could be considered a team's most important hitter, but the Orioles are a rare team.  Gunnar Henderson, the top prospect in all of baseball, burst on the scene in 2022 playing in 34 games down the stretch.  In that time, he had an OPS+ of 123 (only Rutschman's was higher) and earned 0.9 WAR despite the small sample size.  This performance pushed him up to that top spot in the prospect lists.  Now, he is slated to be the Opening Day starting third baseman, and the Orioles are hoping they can get an instant impact out of Henderson like they got out of Rutschman last season.  Only 22 years old, will Henderson take some time to settle in to being a full time big leaguer, or do the Orioles have another instant superstar on their hands?

Most Important Pitcher

Dean Kremer

The weakness of the Orioles in 2022 was their pitching, which is probably why they brought in several additions to their starting rotation this offseason.  This issue was compounded by the loss of former All Star and Opening Day starter John Means to Tommy John surgery.  He won't be ready till at least mid-season.  One of the more pleasant surprises for the Orioles pitching staff in 2022 was Dead Kremer.  In only his third season in the big leagues, Kremer had a 124 ERA+ over 125 innings.  If he is able to improve on 2022, or even just repeat last year's performance, the Orioles will have a solid starter they could count on moving forward.

Prospect to Watch

Grayson Rodriguez

The Orioles have one of the best farm systems in all of baseball, ranked either 1st or 2nd in every rankings list.  It's easy to have a farm system this elite when you are as bad as the Orioles have been for this long.  Baltimore currently has 8 prospects in the Top 100 in baseball, with possibly up to 6 of them ready to contribute at the big league level in 2023.  Everyone is talking about Gunnar Henderson (even me), but he barely counts as a prospect anymore with the experience he got last season.  With the question marks in the pitching staff, Grayson Rodriguez seems like a more intriguing prospect.  Ranked 7th in the Top 100, and the 2nd best pitcher, Rodriguez has the potential to be the ace of the staff for years to come.  Rodriguez will start the season in AAA after some struggles in Spring Training, but he will be in this rotation at some point soon.

2023 Prediction

2nd in AL East, WILD CARD, lose in Wild Card Round

I love this team!  Their performance in 2022 showed they have turned the corner and are ready to take another step.  Yes, they may be in the highly competitive AL East, but they were last year too and still almost made the playoffs.  Their lineup is a great mix of veterans and young phenoms.  The one question is if they can pitch enough.  If they can't, they might be able to score enough.

Fearless Prediction

The Orioles will have two of the top 3 finishers in AL Rookie of the Year.

Between Gunnar Henderson and Grayson Rodriguez, the Orioles have two of the top potential rookies in the American League entering the season, and if the Orioles make the run I am predicting, then these two will also have to be two of the biggest producing rookies at the end of the season.  As the season draws to a close, watch for Gunnar and Grayson to emerge as young leaders of this team to go alongside Adley Rutschman.  It's also only a matter of time before last year's #1 overall pick, Jackson Holliday, breaks out in the next few seasons too.  The future has never been brighter in Baltimore.

2021 Pre-Season Profile: Baltimore Orioles

#25

The Baltimore Orioles have spent most of the last 5 years as one of the worst teams in baseball.  Are they finally ready to turn the corner and start to compete again?

2020 Predictions

#30 - 5th in AL East

MIH - Hanser Alberto

MIP - John Means

PTW - Ryan Mountcastle

FP - The Orioles will cut more payroll than is earned by the rest of their 25 man roster.

2020 Results

#26 - 25-35 - 4th in AL East

The Orioles surprised everyone and jumped out to a hot start in the COVID-shortened 2020 season.  Eventually they cooled off, and probably thanks to the short season, did not have enough time to fall all the way back to the cellar of the division.  It was good to see the Orioles relevant again, even if it was just for a couple weeks.

Additions / Subtractions

The Orioles made some small adjustments to a budding young roster.  They replaced shortstop Jose Iglesias with veteran Freddy Galvis.  Second baseman Hanser Alberto moved on to the Royals.  On the pitching side, the Orioles traded away Alex Cobb while signing Felix Hernandez on a minor league deal.  The biggest addition for the Orioles this season wasn't a transaction at all.  Trey Mancini is back after a year of battling colon cancer.  He will be the strong veteran presence in the young clubhouse in Baltimore.

Most Important Pitcher

Anthony Santander

Through the 2020 season, Anthony Santander led the Orioles' roster in WAR while starting to emerge as a low key potential star.  Entering his age 26 season, he has been an above average hitter (in terms of OPS+) in both of his full seasons so far.  The Orioles are starting to reach that point in their rebuild where they are starting to see which young players they can start to count on to be a part of that young core moving forward.  Santander seems to be one of the centerpieces.

Most Important Pitcher

John Means

The Orioles have some great young pitching starting to work their way through the farm system.  At the top of the system though, right now they are a little thin.  Counting on guys like King Felix and Wade LeBlanc to be key pieces in the rotation are showing how they are just waiting for the young kids to be ready.  The one young pitcher that has started to establish himself in the big leagues is John Means.  After being an All Star in 2019, he had an average season in 2020.  He needs to bounce back and emerge as an ace to be a part of the plans moving forward.

Prospect to Watch

Adley Rutschman

At some point in the 2021 season, the Orioles' news cycle will start to focus on when it will be time to start the clock on former #1 overall pick Adley Rutschman.  The top overall pick in 2019 and the #2 overall prospect in all of baseball, Rutschman is a switch hitting catcher that is the future face of the Baltimore Orioles.  The only question is if he will announce his presence with authority this season or next.

2021 Prediction

4th in AL East

I fully realize predicting the Orioles to finish above the Red Sox this season is quite a bit of a stretch.  The Red Sox are pretty easily the more talented roster.  With that said, the Orioles had some pretty decent success in 2020, and for a young team like this to get a string of success like that, the confidence can only build knowing that they are capable of winning.  The Orioles seem to finally be moving up, while the Red Sox seem stagnant at best.  For that alone, it was worth predicting the Orioles to repeat in fourth place.

Fearless Prediction

Trey Mancini will win Comeback Player of the Year.

Okay, this isn't a very bold prediction but it is worth mentioning.  As soon as Trey Mancini sees the field in a regular season game and shows any shadow of the player he was before cancer struck, this award will pretty much be in the bag.  And fully deserved.

2020 Pre-Season Profile: Baltimore Orioles

#30

I wasn't planning on writing my baseball preview articles this season.  I didn't think I was going to have the time (and I didn't).  Then the whole world shut down with a pandemic, and the baseball season was indefinitely postponed.  Needless to say, I all of a sudden have some time on my hands.  So to celebrate the week the baseball season was supposed to start, I am instead starting my slightly delayed look at the season that will be ... whenever we get around to it ... if we get around to it.  (My money is on Opening Day being the 4th of July.)

It is so disappointing to see this season delayed because there were so many fascinating storylines to follow.  Two of the biggest brands and best teams in baseball got even better by each adding one of the best players in the game.  Speaking of the best players in the game, the undisputed #1 of that list finally got a formidable right hand man.  Then there are the teams mired in controversy after a cheating scandal that led to year-long suspensions and references to Pete Rose and Shoeless Joe.  There are a couple superteams and a handful that are in the middle of a full rebuild, but you also have over 20 teams you could legitimately argue are serious playoff contenders.  No wonder rumors are flying to expand the playoffs (a plan which I love, but I don't think it will actually happen until baseball expands to 32 teams).  Even the rebuilding teams are starting to have some reasons to be excited as the stockpiling of prospects are starting to hit the big league field, however this delayed and most likely truncated season will hold back the development of a lot of young talen.  It is going to be an exciting season ... whenever it gets started.

With all that said, we are starting at the bottom and looking at the teams that really have the least to be excited about.  The Baltimore Orioles have been in full rebuild mode for several years now, finishing in the cellar three straight years and bottoming out in 2018 when they lost 115 games.  Last season saw a new GM and manager, but it also saw another 100 loss season.  Will 2020 bring a noticeable improvement or more of the same?

2019 Predictions

#30 - 5th in AL East

MIH: Chris Davis

MIP: Alex Cobb

PTW: Dillon Tate

FP: The Orioles will pick in the top 5 in the MLB Draft for five straight seasons.

2019 Results

#29 - 54-108, 5th in AL East

The Orioles waited way too long to start their rebuild which almost guaranteed they were facing some ridiculously lean years for quite some time.  The players I predicted their success would be dependent on failed miserably.  Chris Davis followed up the historically bad 2018 with a slightly better but still really bad 2019.  The pure power hitter hit below .180 for the second straight year while also failing to top the 20 home run mark, finishing with a -1.2 WAR.  Entering his age 34 season with three years left on a historically bad 7 year, $161 million deal, he is untradeable and probably uncuttable.  As far their Most Important Pitcher, Alex Cobb only pitched in three games before the rest of the season was lost to a hip injury.  He is also entering his age 34 season and signed through 2022, although on a slightly more bearable deal.  Even my pick for their Prospect to Watch floundered as Dillon Tate, once a highly-touted prospect, could only get 21 innings in.  He is barely staying in the top 30 of Baltimore's prospect list.  There was very little to be excited about in 2019 for the Orioles.

Additions / Subtractions

The Orioles also did not do much over the offseason to excite their fan base.  Their best hitter in 2019, Jonathan Villar, was traded to Miami for a minor leaguer.  The pitcher who had been touted as their ace of the future (although never fully living up to the hype), Dylan Bundy, was traded to the Angels.  Coming in were only veteran placeholders like shortstop Jose Iglesias and starting pitcher Wade LeBlanc.

Most Important Hitter

Hanser Alberto

Last year, I said the Orioles' most important players were the guys that could build trade stock so they could bring back some value.  They don't really have any of those anymore like I already said.  It is now time for the Orioles to take a true step forward, and that means players like Hanser Alberto need to continue to develop into potential stars.  Alberto's success last season allowed for the Orioles to trade Jonathan Villar and make Alberto their everyday second baseman.  He was definitely a bright spot in 2019, hitting over .300 with 12 homers and 51 RBI's.  If the Orioles are going to be better this year, players like Hanser Alberto, Austin Hays, and Anthony Santander need to prove they are ready to be daily contributors and possible stars.

Most Important Pitcher

John Means

If Alberto was a bright spot among the hitters, John Means was definitely the bright spot in the pitching staff.  The Orioles' lone All Star in 2019, Means had a great season, posting an ERA+ of 131 and finishing 2nd in the Rookie of the Year vote behind only Yordan Alvarez of the Astros.  Now with Dylan Bundy gone and Alex Cobb coming off injury, Means will be looked at as the ace heading into the season.  If he continues to develop, he is up to the task and could be the anchor a young team like this needs to move forward.

Prospect to Watch

Ryan Mountcastle

The Orioles have four prospects in the top 100, with last year's #1 overall pick Adley Rutschman topping out at #4.  However, Ryan Mountcastle is the one closest to the big leagues.  A former first round pick in 2015, this first baseman has hit at every level, even winning the AAA MVP last season and the Orioles Minor League Player of the Year award.  At some point in 2020, the Orioles will give up on Chris Davis, either by permanently benching him or cutting him and eating the money.  Either way, he will not block Ryan Mountcastle from making the big leagues for long.  He is a future cornerstone the Orioles will try and build on.

2020 Prediction

5th in AL East

This year will be another year of disappointment for the Orioles.  They seem to be on the trajectory the Astros took at the beginning of the 2010's.  Be really bad for 3-5 years and build up draft picks and prospects that will hopefully lead the team to the promised land at some point in the next 10 years.  The Orioles have already bottomed out, but they aren't ready to get better yet.  Look for this to be the third year in a row they earn a top five draft pick.

Fearless Prediction

The Orioles will cut more payroll than is earned by the rest of their 25 man roster.

Chris Davis is set to make $23 million this year and still has $69 million on his contract.  If he gets cut, those numbers very easily could be greater than the rest of the roster.  If Alex Cobb gets cut too (which is possible if he doesn't bounce back from his injury), then the Orioles will definitely be paying more money to players not in uniform than they will for players that are.  It is never a good thing, but it is sometimes necessary to take the steps forward a franchise needs.