2023 Pre-Season Profile: Detroit Tigers

 #26

The Detroit Tigers have felt primed for a breakout season for several years now.  Now, as they prepare to celebrate the final season of their future Hall of Famer, has the window for their possible breakout closed?

2022 Predictions

#15 - 2nd in AL Central

MIH - Javier Baez

MIP - Casey Mize

PTW - Spencer Torkelson

2022 Results

#25 - 66-96, 4th in AL Central

Highest WAR (Position) - Javier Baez

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Tarik Skubal

The 2022 Tigers showed a lot of promise.  They had their brand new star signed to a huge deal, they had their former #1 overall pick ready to make debut and take baseball by storm, they had stable of young pitchers all ready to be future aces.  Everything was looking up, but nothing seemed to work out.  Javy Baez had only a 93 OPS+, Spencer Torkelson bounced between AAA and the big leagues while barely hitting .200, and their other former #1 overall pick in Casey Mize only started 2 games before getting injured.  The only thing that seemed to go right was Miguel Cabrera was able to celebrate his 3000th hit.

Additions / Subtractions

The Tigers had a fairly quiet offseason with some potentially sneaky good moves.  The main moves they made brought in veteran starters Matthew Boyd and Michael Lorenzen to round out the rotation and replace other veterans like Drew Hutchison.  The main departures were catcher Tucker Barnhart, third baseman Jeimer Candelario, and reliever Gregory Soto.

Most Important Hitter

Spencer Torkelson

When you take a player with the #1 overall draft pick, you expect an All Star pretty soon after he takes the field for the first time at the big league level.  Although it's still early, so far the Tigers have whiffed on two recent top picks.  Casey Mize, the #1 overall pick in 2018 has yet to do much in 3 seasons (and will probably miss most, if not all, of 2023 with Tommy John).  Then there's Spencer Torkelson.  The top overall pick in 2020 out of Arizona State, Torkelson was supposed to be ready to hit at the big league level the second he arrived.  Instead, he struggled to adjust to big league pitching with only a 77 OPS+ in 110 games.  If the Tigers are going to take a step forward, Torkelson needs to be an All Star caliber hitter.

Most Important Pitcher

Matt Manning

The Tigers went from having a potential core of young aces to a starting rotation of mostly veterans.  They need at least one of their young starters to take a huge step forward in 2023.  The most likely to break out is Matt Manning.  In 2022, Manning only started 12 games but pitched well with a 3.43 ERA and a 111 ERA+.  This season is set up perfectly for Manning to have a big year.

Prospect to Watch

Wilmer Flores

If the name sounds familiar, there's a reason.  His brother has the same name and has been an infielder in the big leagues for years.  This version of Wilmer Flores is a big 6'4" right hander that looks about ready to make an impact in a big league rotation and be the latest Tigers pitching phenom to try and be their next ace.  Ranked #95 on MLB's Top 100 prospects, Flores is the last of 3 to make the list.  Although they don't have anyone in the top 50, the Tigers have a pretty deep farm system (which is pretty easy to have when they have this bad for this long).

2023 Prediction

5th in AL Central

I've given up hope on the Tigers.  Too many times over the last few seasons I have predicted the Tigers to make the big leap forward and be a breakout team (last year, I pick them 2nd in the division ... 2ND!!!).  Every year they disappoint me.  I'm done picking them.  No matter what top tier talent they have breaking out this year, they can never figure it out, even in one of the least competitive divisions in baseball.  Now with the balanced schedule, it's going to be even harder for a team like the Tigers to be good.  I hope they surprise me, but I'm not picking the breakout season again until I see signs they are even going to get better.

Fearless Prediction

A.J. Hinch will be fired mid-season.

Before the 2021 season, A.J. Hinch was hired after his year long suspension from the Astros sign stealing scandal to do for the Tigers what he did for the Astros (not the sign stealing, the winning of a World Series).  However, since he arrived, the Tigers have been going backwards.  If 2023 goes the way I see it going, it's obvious the Hinch hire isn't working.

2015 Pre-Season Profile: Chicago Cubs

There may not have been a more talked about team this offseason than the Chicago Cubs.  Will all the publicity and attention get them any closer to ending the most infamous drought in professional sports?

Last Season

73-89, 5th in NL Central

Under new manager Rick Renteria, the Cubs had their best season since 2010, which just means they didn't lose 90+ games.  It was definitely a transition year as some of the current stars were shipped out to bring in fresh talent and make room for the budding superstars Theo Epstein has been stockpiling in the farm system.  A lot of youngsters saw their first big league action in 2014 and more will see the field in 2015.

2015 Additions / Subtractions

The remodeling of this year's team officially started when the Cubs started trading last season, shipping off players like Jeff Samardzija and Darwin Barney.  Then came the offseason everyone has been talking about.  Jon Lester brings instant credibility to a rotation needing a leader after Samardzija (Lester's now former Athletic teammate actually) was dealt.  Lester is a proven leader and winner at all levels.  Complementary pieces like Dexter Fowler to hold the fort in centerfield and Miguel Montero to handle the pitching staff also improved the club, but there was one move that is going to make all the difference in the long run.  Rick Renteria did a great job managing the team last year, but the Cubs couldn't pass up the opportunity presented to them.  Joe Maddon has long been considered one of, if not the, best manager in baseball.  What he did with the low-budget, overachieving Rays year after year was amazing to watch.  Now he will be leading a team full of talent that also has a budget to go fill needs instead of trading away their stars just as they hit their prime.  If the Cubs win a World Series in the next 5 years or so, it will be because of Joe Maddon.

Most Important Hitter

Javier Baez

Outside of a few proven big leaguers, the Cubs will be letting some young prospects get their feet wet and have some on-the-job training this year.  Eventually, some of these prospects will need to turn into superstars for the Cubs to reach the heights they want to see.  The first they are counting on announcing his presence is Javier Baez.  Baez was considered one of the best hitting prospects in all of baseball last season when he was given a 52 game run in Chicago.  Scouts said he hit like Manny Ramirez, but played middle infield (which is why many say the Cubs hired Manny Ramirez to help coach their AAA team last year).  He greatly underwhelmed in 2014, hitting just .169 with 9 home runs in his short stint.  Baez is obviously their second baseman of the future, but it is telling when the team trades for Tommy La Stella from Atlanta in the offseason to have an insurance policy in case Baez falls flat on his face again.  The Cubs want to be patient, but also want to start winning.  How quickly Javier Baez develops may determine how quickly the Cubs become a team to be recognized.

Most Important Pitcher

Jake Arrieta

When the Cubs traded Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel mid-season last year, many wondered where the quality would come from their starting pitching.  Quickly, Jake Arrieta emerged out of nowhere to be the ace of the staff.  Now with Jon Lester taking the top spot in the rotation, the Cubs are counting on Arrieta to continue his new-found success and be the solid number two starter every rotation needs.

Player to Watch

Addison Russell

It is hard to pick just one player to watch on such a young and talented team.  Jorge Soler, Cubs #3 prospect and #23 in all of baseball, is expected to start in rightfield on Opening Day, and Kris Bryant, Cubs #1 prospect and #2 in all of baseball, is putting together a Spring Training that will have people rioting if he is not the starting third baseman to start the season.  Many people already know these names and the success they are expected to have (if not, look them up ... especially Bryant).  The situation that will be most interesting to watch is what the Cubs decide to do with shortstop prospect Addison Russell.  The centerpiece of the Jeff Samardzija trade last season, Russell came over from Oakland and instantly became the Cubs' #2 prospect, only bested by Kris Bryant.  He is also the 5th best prospect in all of baseball and scheduled to be ready to make his big league debut this season.  He is obviously in the future plans of the Cubs.  The question is when and how.  If we hit mid-season, and Javier Baez still isn't working out at second base, look for Addison Russell to make his big league debut at second.  If not, don't be surprised if Starlin Castro starts to be talked about in trade rumors in June or July, no matter what their record is, to make room for this phenom and future superstar.

Prediction

3rd in NL Central

With all the moves and all the buzz surrounding the Cubs, you start to wonder if it is all hype or not.  Looking at what they have done and where it appears they are going, I am starting to buy in to what they are selling.  They have a collection of possibly the best young talent in all of baseball with possibly the best manager leading them.  I see them making a significant jump forward this year.  They won't challenge for a playoff spot this year, but a strong start could have people speculating about a playoff run as late as the All Star Break.  The Cubs aren't trying to win this year, but look out for them being perennial championship contenders within the next 5 seasons.