Reactions to the Oscar Nominations: 2014

This year was a pretty great year for movies, and for the most part, the Academy did a great job at expressing that. First off, why is there always someone with a pony in the race that is announcing the nominations? It had to be heartbreaking for Chris Hemsworth to announce the frustrating snub of Daniel Bruhl in Rush, a movie he also starred in. Oh, well. At least it was someone relevant. Check out my reactions below, as well as how I did predicting this year’s Academy Awards invitees!

BEST PICTURE
American Hustle

Captain Phillips

Dallas Buyers Club

Gravity

Her

Nebraska

Philomena

12 Years a Slave

The Wolf of Wall Street

Predicted: 7 for 9

Reactions: Her! Yes! I love that the Spike Jonze movie continued the amazing success of the National Board of Review winners and rode the momentum all the way to the ceremony. In terms of predicting, I had Her and Philomena missing out. I should have known with that the latter would get in with the British vote. I had Blue Jasmine and Saving Mr. Banks getting in. I am a little surprised that neither made the cut, but these nominations are better. The alarming thing about this category is the complete lack of Harvey Weinstein. Have the Academy finally gotten sick of him? No August: Osage County, The Butler, Fruitvale Station, Mandela…awesome. I really liked Fruitvale, but suck it Harvey! This will be a fair race, and there are several contenders. Gravity and American Hustle led in nominations with 10 each, but they are still both looking up to 12 Years a Slave. It will be an entertaining bunch of awards shows coming up. Tonight, with the Critics Choice Awards, we may see one of the underdogs jump out ahead. But for right now…

Preliminary prediction: 12 Years a Slave

BEST DIRECTOR

David O. Russell – American Hustle

Alfonso Cuaron – Gravity

Alexander Payne – Nebraska

Steve McQueen – 12 Years a Slave

Martin Scorsese – The Wolf of Wall Street

Predicted: 5 for 5

Reactions: So, I aced this category, but these nominees still surprise me. Alexander Payne was the one that could have easily taken a back seat to Paul Greengrass, but he survived and got a well-deserved nomination for the best directing effort of his career. Scorsese continues his remarkable success, making it 5 of his last 6 movies getting Picture and Director mentions by the Academy (Shutter Island, wrongfully delayed and screwed over, his only miss). Here we have a three man race. We have the director of the Best Picture frontrunner in Mr. McQueen. We have suddenly the A-list director and crowd pleaser in David O. Russell, who has 3 noms in 4 years. And we have Alfonso Cuaron, the director of the technical marvel and box office king. I could see any of them taking home the prize. It is hard to predict a Picture-Director split, but this is not a normal year.

Preliminary prediction: Alfonso Cuaron – Gravity

BEST ACTOR

Christian Bale – American Hustle

Bruce Dern – Nebraska

Leonardo DiCaprio – The Wolf of Wall Street

Chiwetel Ejiofor – 12 Years a Slave

Matthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyers Club

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: No Tom Hanks? No Tom freaking Hanks? Wow. It has been 13 years since his last nomination, and he will continue to wait for another. I had Hanks and Idris Elba getting in, with Bale and DiCaprio out. I am also heartbroken for Robert Redford, whose performance in All Is Lost is one of the truly brilliant pieces of work this year. Under normal circumstances, the comedy nominations would be surprises, but those movies aren’t true comedies. I love that Leo ended his snub streak. Ejiofor would be a frontrunner, but there is just something about his performance that never screamed “Oscar winner” to me. The clear frontrunner is McConaughey, whose film got a mildly surprising Best Picture nomination, showing clear support for the first-time nominee’s film. This is a category loaded with quality work, though.

Preliminary prediction: Matthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyers Club

BEST ACTRESS

Amy Adams – American Hustle

Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine

Sandra Bullock – Gravity

Judi Dench – Philomena

Meryl Streep – August: Osage County

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: How exactly did Emma Thompson get snubbed for Saving Mr. Banks? That is pure Academy stuff, and her performance was extraordinary. Weird. I had her in and Golden Globe winner Amy Adams out. Her performance was supporting, but this is her first Leading Actress nomination. I am happy for her. If her movie starts taking awards, then watch out for an upset. None of these previous winners are an insurmountable frontrunner.

Preliminary prediction: Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Barkhad Abdi – Captain Phillips

Bradley Cooper – American Hustle

Michael Fassbender – 12 Years a Slave

Jonah Hill – The Wolf of Wall Street

Jared Leto – Dallas Buyers Club

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had the late James Gandolfini and Daniel Bruhl getting nominated over Jonah Hill and Bradley Cooper. Hill marks this year’s nominee with absolutely no nominations from the other awards circuits. It is well deserved, obviously. Bradley Cooper’s nomination proves that David O. Russell is an actor’s dream director. Jared Leto has to be the frontrunner for his stunning work in Dallas Buyers Club, but his speech was a little awkward at the Globes. I sense that over the next month and a half, his lead will eventually fade away.

Preliminary prediction: Michael Fassbender – 12 Years a Slave

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Sally Hawkins – Blue Jasmine

Jennifer Lawrence – American Hustle

Lupita Nyong’o – 12 Years a Slave

Julia Roberts – August: Osage County

June Squibb – Nebraska

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: Sally Hawkins! I love that she finally got in, especially after her previous snub in Happy-Go-Lucky. Woody Allen’s supporting ladies once again get it done. I had her out and Oprah in, whose film was completely shut out. Suck it, Harvey. I would like to think this could turn into a race, but unless June Squibb takes the SAG on Saturday or Nyong’o takes the Critics Choice tonight, then this is over.

Preliminary prediction: Jennifer Lawrence – American Hustle

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

American Hustle – Eric Singer, David O. Russell

Blue Jasmine – Woody Allen

Dallas Buyers Club – Craig Borten, Melisa Wallack

Her – Spike Jonze

Nebraska – Bob Nelson

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I predicted a surprise Fruitvale Station nom over Dallas Buyers Club. Clearly, that movie has a lot more support than most anticipated. This should be an interesting race, but I cannot see them letting Russell go home without an Oscar again. Then again, I thought that about Jason Reitman’s Up in the Air screenplay and triple nomination, but that award went to Precious. I am picking the upset.

Preliminary prediction: Dallas Buyer’s Club – Craig Borten, Melisa Wallack

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Before Midnight – Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke

Captain Phillips – Billy Ray

Philomena – Steve Coogan, Jeff Pope

12 Years a Slave – John Ridley

The Wolf of Wall Street – Terence Winter

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had August: Osage County getting in against my better judgment. Captain Phillips was the one I had out. Unless crazy things start happening, then 12 Years a Slave is taking this award home for sure. Objectively, Before Midnight is the best screenplay of the year, but it can’t win the Oscar, can it? Please, someone tell me it can. Nothing would make me happier.

Preliminary prediction: 12 Years a Slave – John Ridley

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

The Grandmaster

Gravity

Inside Llewyn Davis

Nebraska

Prisoners

Predicted: 2 for 5

Reactions: Wow, nice category. I had 12 Years a Slave in, of course. That snub is strange. I also had Rush and The Great Gatsby getting in over The Grandmaster, Nebraska, and Prisoners. I love that the Oscars didn’t just go for the CGI-looking movies this year. Prisoners is a bizarre choice, but I like it. Roger Deakins is the man.

Preliminary prediction: Gravity

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

American Hustle

Gravity

The Great Gatsby

Her

12 Years a Slave

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had Oz the Great and Powerful in for Her. Glad I was wrong about that. This is a rare technical category with the heavyweights represented, but in this case, they are all going home empty-handed due to one of the more impressive Production Design achievements in recent memory.

Preliminary prediction: The Great Gatsby

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

American Hustle

The Grandmaster

The Great Gatsby

The Invisible Woman

12 Years a Slave

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had The Butler and Saving Mr. Banks in and The Invisible Woman and The Grandmaster out. I love the support for Wong Kar Wai’s artistry in The Grandmaster. Too bad it got snubbed for Foreign Language Film. This is an interesting race, but if 12 Years a Slave is going to take Best Picture, then it needs to win some stuff.

Preliminary prediction: 12 Years a Slave

BEST SOUND MIXING

Captain Phillips

Gravity

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

Inside Llewyn Davis

Lone Survivor

Predicted: 2 for 5

Reactions: I only got Captain Phillips and Gravity correct here. I had All Is Lost, Elysium, and 12 Years a Slave in. Normally this category has the Best Picture winner in it, but not this year, unless that film is Gravity…

Preliminary prediction: Gravity

BEST FILM EDITING

American Hustle

Captain Phillips

Dallas Buyers Club

Gravity

12 Years a Slave

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had Rush in and Dallas Buyers Club out. The Best Picture winner is likely present in these 5 films. The winner is not always the one that wins this, but there is a strong correlation. I am a little surprised that The Wolf of Wall Street got ignored, but oh well.

Preliminary prediction: 12 Years a Slave

BEST SOUND EFFECTS EDITING

All Is Lost

Captain Phillips

Gravity

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

Lone Survivor

Predicted: 2 for 5

Reactions: I had Rush, Pacific Rim, and Elysium in for all but Gravity and All Is Lost. Lone Survivor is stupid getting in here, with some of the strangest and most exaggerated sound effects I have heard. At least this isn’t just loaded with a bunch of punching sounds like usual. It is just frustrating that All Is Lost was only nominated here. 2 of the last 3 years, one of the year’s best films and most amazing technical achievements (2011’s Drive) has had this as its sole nomination.

Preliminary prediction: Gravity

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Gravity

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

Iron Man 3

The Lone Ranger

Star Trek Into Darkness

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had Pacific Rim and Elysium in for The Lone Ranger and Star Trek. Nice nomination for a terrible movie (unless you ask Tarantino, that is). Best Picture nominees do not lose to non-nominees in this category…ever.

Preliminary prediction: Gravity

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Dallas Buyers Club

Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa

The Lone Ranger

Predicted: 2 for 3

Reactions: Yes! Bad Grandpa! That is so cool. The Lone Ranger is the bad movie that gets in this category, not Bad Grandpa…for the record. Of course, I could not have predicted that. I had American Hustle (odd snub here, by the way) in over the Jackass guys.

Preliminary prediction: The Lone Ranger

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“Alone Yet Not Alone” – Alone Yet Not Alone

“Happy” – Despicable Me 2

“Let It Go” – Frozen

“The Moon Song” – Her

“Ordinary Love” – Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had the song from The Hobbit and “Amen” from All Is Lost in for Her and…Alone Yet Not Alone? What the hell? At first I just thought it was the next Paris 36, but upon further research, no one has seen or heard of this movie. Look at THIS. Ridiculous. 29 votes on IMDb. 1 review on Rotten Tomatoes. It sounds pretty bad. I am beyond dumbfounded by the entire situation.

Preliminary prediction: “Ordinary Love” – Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

The Book Thief

Gravity

Her

Philomena

Saving Mr. Banks

Predicted: 2 for 5

Reactions: I only got The Book Thief and Gravity right. I had 12 Years a Slave in (obviously), as well as Captain Phillips and Frozen. Interesting group. This is the only mention of Saving Mr. Banks, and other than Thompson, this was the best part of the film. I love that the Arcade Fire guys got nominated for their amazing music in Her. I love that movie.

Preliminary prediction: The Book Thief

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

The Act of Killing

Cutie and the Boxer

Dirty Wars

The Square

12 Feet from Stardom

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had previous frontrunner Blackfish and God Loves Uganda in for Dirty Wars and The Act of Killing. I love that the latter got in. It is one of the most daring and shocking movies I have ever witnessed. It would be so cool if it can pull off the victory here. I do not know too much about the others, but 12 Feet from Stardom got an applause by the audience present at the nominations ceremony. So…

Preliminary prediction: 20 Feet from Stardom

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

The Broken Circle Breakdown

The Great Beauty

The Hunt

The Missing Picture

Omar

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had the terrific The Grandmaster in for The Missing Picture. Lucky guesses, honestly. I really like this group of nominees. This category always has some surprises, so Golden Globe winner The Great Beauty will probably not take home the Oscar. I will go with…

Preliminary prediction: The Broken Circle Breakdown

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

The Croods

Despicable Me 2

Ernest & Celestine

Frozen

The Wind Rises

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had Monsters University and A Letter to Momo in for The Croods and Ernest & Celestine. I picked the wrong obscure movie. 2 out of the last 3 years Pixar gets the shaft. I do not have a problem with that. They need to refocus their creativity on non-sequels. I like the tribute to Miyazaki. The Wind Rises is supposedly his last film, and he is one of the innovators in the animated film industry. Can he pull off the shocker?

Preliminary prediction: Frozen

Overall predictions: 73/107; 68.22% (67.29% in 2013)

Without the last 5 categories: 57/82; 69.51% (69.51% in 2013)

On the Big 8 categories: 34/44; 77.27% (75.00% in 2013)

So, I did just slightly better than I did last year. I even got the same percentage on one group…what?! This just shows that no matter how familiar we get with the process and material…we still know absolutely nothing.

10 COOLEST FIRST TIME NOMINEES

1. Matthew McConaughey

2. Michael Fassbender

3. Jared Leto

4. Sally Hawkins

5. Arcade Fire

6. Chiwetel Ejiofor

7. Steve McQueen

8. Pharrell

9. Steve Coogan

10. Terence Winter

10 WORST SNUBS

1. Tom Hanks for Best Actor (Captain Phillips)

2. All Is Lost for Best Actor (Robert Redford), Best Sound Mixing, Best Film Editing, Best Original Score, Best Original Song

3. The Wolf of Wall Street for Best Film Editing

4. Scarlett Johansson for Best Supporting Actress (Her)

5. Inside Llewyn Davis for Best Original Song(s)

6. American Hustle for Best Makeup/Hairstyling

7. Michael B. Jordan for Best Actor (Fruitvale Station)

8. Emma Thompson for Best Actress (Saving Mr. Banks)

9. To the Wonder for Best Cinematography, Best Original Score

10. Daniel Bruhl for Best (Supporting) Actor (Rush)

Stay tuned for our 6^th Annual Oscar Challenge! What do you think of this year’s nominees? Who would you have nominated? Snubs? Comment!

Lone Survivor (2013) Review

Directed by Peter Berg 

Going into a movie like Peter Berg’s Lone Survivor, the true story of the failed 2005 "Operation Red Wings” Navy SEALs mission, it is hard to not have high expectations. The one thing that had me unsure about the film’s potential was the fact that Berg was at the helm. His previous war movie was The Kingdom, which basically failed on all levels. This was movie was somewhat different, but the results were only moderately better.

The title of the film brings with it a certain level of anticipation. Not only is it clear that everyone is going to die but one, but the movie is so recent. The survivor is still alive (Marcus Luttrell, played by Mark Wahlberg), and he wrote the book. You would figure that the movie is going to be super heroic, but that is not who the SEALs are. From the opening shots of the film, a montage of the grueling real life SEALs training, you know that this movie is going to be gritty and unrelenting. Sadly, as the movie goes along, the only part that truly fits that description is the violence itself. It is the most painful war violence I have seen this side of Tae Guk Gi.

Berg’s direction is actually quite good here, making the audience feel as if they really are stuck on that mountainside with the four soldiers getting ambushed by the Taliban and torn apart by bullets and emotional turmoil. These types of scenes are where the movie truly takes off. Essentially, the entire middle portion of the movie is a battle scene. It is frantically edited and fascinating to watch. Most of it is simply carnage, watching them constantly retreating and falling down the sides of the mountain. How any of them did not die in their collisions with trees and rocks is unbelievable in itself. The actors wear the pain and panic on their faces well, making the audience truly feel like we knew what they were going through…but we honestly have no idea and probably never will truly understand what that was like.

The actors all give fine performances. The only issue is that they are almost all miscast. First off, Mark Wahlberg is far too old for that role. He plays it well, but maybe 10 years ago he would have been an ideal casting choice. He is just so good at humanizing characters that we are able to accept him. Taylor Kitsch is interesting, but I thought that he would have fit much easier into the Luttrell role. Seeing him as the authority and commander did not fit the performance he was going for. I actually bought Emile Hirsch in his role, but he gave the weakest performance. Something about his big emotional scene fell flat. The only flawless casting choice was Ben Foster, who nailed everything about what it is to be a soldier. I just wanted more of him. Speaking of that, Eric Bana…totally wasted. You get such a small glimpse into these characters that we do not really care about them the way we do in the great battle pictures like Platoon or Tigerland.

The movie is much more concerned with making a tribute to the SEALs. From the beginning training montage, to the awkward transition to the battlefield with a voiceover talking about what it means to be a SEAL, to the final tribute to the fallen, it will be difficult to find any dry eyes in the theater. The audience will almost certainly applaud out of respect, but it is hard to tell if the same would have happened without those manipulative tactics.

This is where we come to the main issue with the movie: the screenplay. The movie had no idea what it wanted to be. With the strange way the movie started and ended, it is clear that the studio had a large hand in making the movie what it is. It is very marketable to make a very American war movie that makes the audience want to lace up and join the soldiers, but it seems very outdated. It also skimped on the details, portraying weeks in just a day or two. Also, only once is the enemy showed as human, which in the movie’s best scene, our four heroes have a heated discussion on whether to let their prisoners go or off them on the spot, knowing almost certainly that they would go straight back to the base and tell their target of the Americans’ location. After that, we return to the Hollywood war movie clichés where the enemies appear to be savages, screaming in incomprehensible rage and coming out of the shadows. Only once do we even get some subtitles, which is far after the battle is over and is too late. The movie is more concerned with simply showing a skewed perspective of what is was like to be on the American’s side inside the battle. What the movie is best at is showing the brotherhood that these guys had, as well as the process it took to get the job done and how it changed due to circumstances.

Peter Berg does his best with what he was given. The sound editing is greatly exaggerated at times, and it is hard to really follow such a brutal and intense book by the letter when you are working for a studio. The movie wanted to be the next The Hurt Locker, but its budget was way too great. If it had stripped it down and upped the in-battle emotion, it could have been like that. Instead, we get a focused battle picture that also wants to be a wide-scoping American war movie in the vein of Saving Private Ryan. You cannot have both. This story does not hold up to those standards, mainly because there is very little story to begin with. The movie is an extended combat scene tied together by the shameless patriotic Hollywood formula.

You may feel like you saw a great movie because you will probably be tearing up, but do not be fooled. This is half of a great movie. If the movie wanted to really show the process and heroic nature of these frontline soldiers, then the movie should have started and ended on the mountain. Instead, we get what felt like a documentary beginning and end, with the meat of the story providing the only true thrills and drama. It is a shame that this is how the incredible story was told. I wish the movie were a documentary, taking a page out of The Tillman Story’s book. Under those guidelines, it would have been much easier to accept the movie on its merit and hear from the source what it was really like to be on that mountain, see your brothers die in a horrible gunfight, and what it is like to be the lone survivor. I guess we will have to wait for the next great American war movie, but judging by the public reception of this film so far, I might be in the minority in not anointing this one to that standard.

Rating

 

Zach's Fearless NFL Playoff Predictions: Divisional Round

            Last weekend, three road teams won (and the lone victorious home team needed to overcome a 28-point second half deficit).  The biggest underdog of the weekend won by a bigger margin than any other team; a team regarded as inept on the road won in the freezing outdoors; the best team at protecting the ball in the regular season turned it over four times; and football’s most conservative, boring, run-first offense somehow blew a four-touchdown lead despite a +3 turnover margin.  Predictable, last weekend was not.

            And yet guess who went 4-0 in his picks?  Guess who picked San Diego to win comfortably and for New Orleans to win in the final seconds?  Yours truly, that’s who.  Now that the gloating is complete, let’s proceed to my divisional round picks, which I’m positive will be 0-4.

            New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (+ 7½)

            January 11, 4:35pm EST, Fox.

            Let me be clear: I dislike the Seahawks and want them to lose.  I am not alone in this.  I want to believe that in exorcising their road demons last week in Philadelphia, the Saints have suddenly transformed themselves into the 2007 Giants and should be feared wherever they travel.  I want to believe that a Super Bowl winning coach-QB combination with a significantly improved defense can go on the road and beat a 2^nd year QB and a franchise all too familiar with playoff disappointment.

            But I can’t quite do it for a few reasons.  First, while the Saints deserve props for finally winning a playoff game on the road (something Seattle had never done until last season), the way they beat the Eagles wasn’t overwhelmingly impressive.  They had two turnovers, and did not force any takeaways.  Brees was shaky early and could not find the end zone in the first half.  Jimmy Graham looked mortal, and the Eagles’ horrible rush defense made Mark Ingram look immortal.  They beat a quarterback and coach who were making their first playoff appearance, and benefitted greatly from a key Riley Cooper dropped pass which would have been a touchdown. 

            Another reason is that when the Seahawks play the Saints at home, stuff like this happens.  Seattle outscored home opponents by an average of 15.4 points this season.  Their pass defense was remarkable; in a year when 13 teams passed for over 4,000 yards, the Seahawks defense allowed only 2,752 (the 2^nd best pass defense – interestingly, the Saints’ – gave up 3,105 yards).  The last NFC defense to boast numbers like that?  The 2007 Buccaneers.  Seattle’s rush D gave up a league-low four touchdowns.  They led the NFL in takeaways, and their lone home loss to the Cardinals in Week 16 was fluky (Seattle had a +2 turnover margin and this play).

            If you want to look for clinks in the Seahawks’ armor, you can look at this: When Seattle wasn’t playing NFC West opponents, they were generally facing lousy teams.  Nine of their 13 victories came against teams with seven wins or fewer (New Orleans boasted only five such wins).  They also played only four playoff teams.  Perhaps the reason those pass D numbers are so outstanding is a reflection of the QBs they defeated: Cam Newton, Colin Kaepernick, Chad Henne, Matt Schaub, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Kellen Clemens (twice), Mike Glennon, Matt Ryan, Christian Ponder, Brees and Eli Manning.  Only two of those QBs had 4000+ yards passing.  Before the home loss to the Cardinals, the Seahawks struggled at home against Tennessee and Tampa Bay. 

            And there’s another disturbing stat for Seahawks fans: Their 2-2 record in December. It’s not like the 2012 Ravens had an outstanding December either, but take a look at the past few 1 seeds that finished December with a .500 record or worse:

TEAM	RECORD	DECEMBER RECORD	PLAYOFFS
2013 Falcons	13-3	2-2	L Conference Championship
2009 Saints	13-3	2-2	W Super Bowl
2008 Giants	12-4	2-3	L Division Round
2008 Titans	13-3	2-2	L Division Round
2007 Cowboys	13-3	2-2	L Division Round
2005 Colts	14-2	2-2	L Division Round

            In other words, those six 1 seeds finished a combined 4-5 in the playoffs after 12-13 December records (that 2009 Saints team rested their starters after winning 13 straight).  Does this mean anything?  Maybe it means that you shouldn’t have two weeks off when you aren’t playing your best football of the season.  Or maybe it means that since 2005, the playoffs have simply gotten wackier.  Of course, it is worth remembering that it was on December 2 that Seattle beat New Orleans by 27.

            I bring all this up, and yet I’m still picking the Seahawks.  Why?  When they take the field Saturday afternoon, they will be the better team.  They could be playing the ’85 Bears and the momentum from those fans would still make this team formidable.  If Percy Harvin returns, they will have the deep threat downfield that perfects their sophisticated offensive scheme.  Richard Sherman is capable of shredding Kenny Stills and Lance Moore, and Mark Ingram will be lucky if he gains half the total yards he had against Philadelphia. 

            An argument could be made that because the Saints have the more experienced roster, played tougher teams, and didn’t have the week off, they may come out strong.  I believe that.  I doubt this game will play out in the same way as the one-sided affair five weeks ago, and the many irrational Seahawks fans who seem to think so are wrong.  I’m picking the Seahawks, but I feel like the homefield advantage is a 10-point swing.

            Prediction: Seattle 34, New Orleans 23

            Playoff Doppelganger: 2008 AFC Divisional Round, Pittsburgh 35, San Diego 24.  The Chargers were the sexy pick and the hot team from the Wild Card round, having beat the Colts in overtime – their fifth straight win.  And although San Diego came out strong, the Stealers monopolized on turnovers and used a strong running game to keep Philip Rivers off the field.  The Pittsburgh home crowd was energized, just like these Seattle fans will be.

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (+ 7½)

            January 11, 8:15pm EST, CBS.

            A few thoughts about Indianapolis insane comeback last Saturday.  First of all, this was not another “Andy Reid game” where mismanagement fueled the epic collapse.  The only questionable decision by Reid came on the climatic non-conversion on 4^th-and-11 when he decided to call Kansas City’s final timeout immediately following the two minute warning.  But why not take a few extra moments to call up the play that will decide the rest of your season?  If Bowe makes that sideline catch inbounds, what is the purpose of having any more timeouts?

            Reid deserves to be commended for overcoming a remarkable slew of injuries and managing to put up 44 points with Knile Davis and Cyrus Gray as the Chiefs’ runningbacks.  But of course, Andrew Luck deserves the most praise.  The guy had three interceptions, no consistent running game, and only real downfield receiving threat.  As we’ve seen so many times in his early career, Luck is fearless, surprisingly agile, and capable of overcoming virtually any deficit (nine 4^th quarter comebacks in his first two years).  This guy is going to be on Verizon commercials before we know it.

            Now the real question: Does Luck have what it takes to carry over the second half magic of last Saturday’s came to a hostile outdoor environment in Foxboro?  For Patriot fans, there are some obvious similarities between this matchup and when the Denver Tebows came to New England two Januarys ago.  In that game, New England appeared to have the clear advantage on paper, but Tebow’s surreal 4^th quarter mojo secretly scared everyone (and this may be hard to believe, but there was once a time when the words “Tebow is scary” weren’t met with scornful laughter).  I mean, everyone thought: It makes perfect sense that in the Spygate/David Tyree/Bernard Pollard/4^th-and-2/Ras-I Dowling/Aaron Hernandez era that the Patriots would blow a game which would have been a no-brainer ten years ago. 

            Well, they didn’t blow that game (but that didn’t stop them from blowing the Super Bowl to this guy three weeks later).  And I don’t really think they’ll blow this game either, but that doesn’t stop every New England fan from thinking the same italicized thought above.  But hey, the 2013 Patriots look nothing like the 2011 Patriots; we’ve replaced Gronkowski and Hernandez with that fearsome running combo of Stevan “Fumble” Ridley and LeGarrette “Big Mac” Blount.  And instead of our pass defense being abysmal like it was back then, now our rush defense is abysmal (without Vince Wilfork, Jerod Mayo, and the Pats’ third leading tackler Brandon Spikes).  And Andrew Luck isn’t anything like Tim Tebow; he is a really good passer and scrambler!

            The best case for the Patriots is that Tom Brady is coming off his greatest season of his career.  No, he probably won’t win the Super Bowl like he did in 2003 or 2004; no, he didn’t throw 50 touchdowns like he did in 2007; he didn’t throw 4 interceptions like he did in 2010.  He had his lowest completion percentage since 2003 and was sacked the most times since his first full season.  But he had more 4^th quarter comebacks (5) than any of his previous seasons, and had at least four “There’s no way the Pats win this game” games (vs. New Orleans, Miami, Denver and Cleveland).  And no, the 2013 Patriots didn’t go 16-0 like 2007; but it’s frightening to think how close they came to victories in each of those four losses (three ended on goal-line stands and one ended like this). 

            Another case for the Patriots is that Indianapolis can’t run the ball.  Another case for the Patriots is that the Colts’ D just gave up 44 points to a Jamal Charles-less Kansas City team (and any time your secondary relies on LaRon Landry and former Pats cast-off Darius Butler, it’s not exactly ideal).  Another case for the Patriots is that they scored 59 points on Andrew Luck the last time the Colts came to Foxboro.  Another case for the Patriots is that they are 4-0 in Saturday night Division round games in New England (each of those wins coming during Super Bowl seasons).

            Of course, everyone made similar arguments for the playoff games against the Giants, Ravens and Jets.  It can be argued each of those teams defeated previous Patriots squads which were, frankly, far more loaded with talent.  And it remains to be seen what the limit is for Andrew Luck’s tremendous potential.  But as nervous as this depleted New England team makes me, they’re gradually finding their identity, even if it involves LeGarrette Blount returning kicks (and even more improbably, finding success doing so).  They still somehow managed to score the third-most points in the league and helped give Boston sports fans one of the most thrilling, unforgettable falls of all time.  It doesn’t feel right that the journey ends here.

            Prediction: New England 24, Indianapolis 21

            Playoff doppelganger: 2003 AFC Divisional Round, New England 17, Tennessee 14. En route to their second Super Bowl championship, the Pats played the sneaky-good Titans in frigid conditions on a Saturday night in Foxboro.  The result was a taut, defensive game with little spectacle and a lot of bruising hits.  It was one of the all-time classic “The score is close, but the result is not in doubt” Patriots games from that era which they may have resurrected in 2013.

           

            San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers (+3)

            January 12, 1:05pm EST, Fox.

            The 49ers are the trendy road pick this weekend, but personally, it is difficult for me to see why.  Carolina beat the 49ers in San Francisco back in November.  The Panthers haven’t lost at home since Week One, and have only lost once in their past 12 games.  Statistically, the two teams are remarkably similar: both had a top-five defense, both had bottom-three passing games, both lost to the Seahawks and Saints, both started 1-2, both have 6-5, 240 lb. QBs; and both won 12 games in the regular season. Shouldn’t this essentially be a pick-‘em, with the Panthers getting the slight nod because of the homefield advantage?

            But Vegas likes the 49ers for two (possibly three) main reasons: First, because San Francisco has more playoff experience, and second, that Jim Harbaugh is assumed to be a better coach than Ron Rivera.  In a strange way, this is similar to the 2011 NFC playoffs, when New Orleans (with more playoff experience and the “better coach”) marched into San Francisco as a 3½-point favorite.  The result was one of the greatest playoff games in NFL history, and proof that a bad betting line and negative public consensus can provide great motivation for home ‘dog to play tremendously as a result of feeling disrespected.

            I feel like this Panthers team is a candidate for that.  Frankly, they’ve been underdogs all season.  At the beginning of the year, Vegas listed the over/under win total for Carolina at seven games (Minnesota, St. Louis and Tampa Bay had higher win totals).  This was the make-or-break season for Ron Rivera and possibly Cam Newton.  They were underdogs at home against the Giants before they beat them 38-0.  Against all odds, they beat the 49ers and Patriots on back-to-back weeks.  No one thought they would overtake the Saints for the NFC South crown.  But they proved skeptics wrong.  And now, no one thinks they can win a home playoff game with Steve Smith and Jonathan Stewart returning from injuries.  I suspect they feel perfectly comfortable in the position they’re currently in.

            Let’s consider why they could beat the 49ers.  Yes, San Francisco won in frigid Green Bay weather against a rejuvenated Packers team, but Colin Kaepernick needed his legs on key third downs to beat the league’s 25^th-ranked defense.  His passing game was off; he completed just over 50 percent of his passes, and at times made some inexplicably poor throws (nearly getting picked off on the game’s penultimate drive).  Aldon Smith and Justin Smith assaulted Aaron Rodgers; but how will they fare against a quarterback with the lethal speed of Newton?  In the November 10^th game (a game which Aldon was limited), Newton was sacked three times, held to 50 percent passing, and gained only 15 yards rushing.  But on the flip side, Kaepernick was also held to 50 percent passing, gained 16 yards rushing, was sacked six times, and the 49ers were held to 151 total yards.

            I said earlier that Vegas likes the 49ers for two, possibly three reasons.  What is the third possible reason?  According to conventional logic, it is difficult to beat the same team multiple times in one season.  And since that November 10 game was without Michael Crabtree, Kendell Hunter, Vernon Davis (in the second half), and a limited Aldon Smith, it makes sense that the 49ers will be eager to avenge that loss.  But I like the Panthers for two main reasons in this game.  First, the Panthers and their fans are used to being underdogs at this point, and when you’re the underdog, you don’t have to worry about things like expectations, publicity or pressure (or at least, as much).  If you think back to the last two playoffs, which team has benefitted the most from going under the radar?  The 49ers.  Now that those roles are reversed, I expect to see a Panthers team that plays with more guts and comfort.

            The second reason is that Carolina will be the 49ers third straight playoff-caliber road opponent (after Arizona and Green Bay).  Teams like the 2011 Giants and 2012 Ravens will tell you that’s not a justifiable reason for losing in the playoffs.  The 49ers are not really like those teams though, relying much more on grind-it-out consistency than getting hot at the right time.  But the truth is, while this game is extremely tough to call, I think the Panthers are being undervalued, the 49ers overvalued, and the result is essentially a flip of the coin.  Something tells me that in this day and age, the pick is the home team no one believes in.

            Prediction: Carolina 24, San Francisco 22

           

            Playoff doppelganger: 2011 NFC Divisional Round, San Francisco 36, New Orleans 32.  For the reasons stated above.

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (-9)

January 12, 4:40pm EST, CBS.

            The game of the weekend.  The two best quarterbacks and offenses, the two best storylines, and the winner should be the AFC favorite to reach the Super Bowl.

            There are many, many reasons to like the Chargers in this game – some obvious, some not so obvious.  Let’s start with the obvious ones: Exactly one month before this Sunday’s matchup, the Chargers marched into Denver and in front of a national TV audience, in a game with significance for both teams, they stomped all over the Broncos.  San Diego’s defense held the unstoppable Denver offense to four straight three-and-outs and 18 yards rushing, while the Chargers offense controlled the ball for 39 minutes and ran the ball 44 times.  And then Philip Rivers put on his rattlesnake boots.

            Now, let’s move to the slightly less obvious reasons to pick the Chargers.  Rivers is 6-2 in Denver and 5-4 all-time vs. Peyton Manning.  In the last seven weeks, the Chargers have beat Kansas City twice, and Denver and Cincinnati on the road.  They just beat a team by 17 points after that team had gone 8-0 at home.  Rivers completed 69 percent of his passes on the season, and since Melvin Ingram has returned from his knee injury, the defense has been outstanding.  Of the Broncos’ three sub-30 point performances this season, two came against the Chargers.

            Finally, let’s look at the least obvious reason of all.  According to the USAToday, since 2009, the last four teams to face the Philadelphia Eagles in their home opener have won the Super Bowl.  Guess which team traveled to Lincoln Financial Field Week 2?  If you guessed this guy, you would be correct.

            In addition, we know that the Broncos offense was record-setting, but let’s look at the troubled recent history of high-scoring offenses when they reach the playoffs:

TEAM	RECORD	OFFENSIVE RANK (Points Scored)	POSTSEASON
2012 Broncos	13-3	2	L Division Round
2012 Patriots	12-4	1	L Conference Championship
2011 Packers	15-1	1	L Division Round
2011 Saints	13-3	2	L Division Round
2010 Patriots	14-2	1	L Division Round
2009 Saints	13-3	1	W Super Bowl
2007 Patriots	16-0	1	L Super Bowl
2007 Cowboys	13-3	2	L Division Round
2006 Chargers	14-2	1	L Division Round
2005 Colts	13-3	2	L Division Round
2004 Colts	12-4	1	L Division Round
2003 Chiefs	13-3	1	L Division Round

            (Note: It’s funny how the 2009 Saints mess this graphic up, just like they did when I was looking at the Seahawks game earlier in the column).

So that’s it.  All the reasons to pick San Diego in the upset over the overrated Broncos this year.  It’s clear.  Offensive juggernauts don’t win in the postseason, and Peyton Manning has has eight “one-and-done” playoff appearances.  It’s the Chargers.  Right?

A good case for the Broncos is that in the December 12 game, Wes Welker was out with a concussion.  He will be back this week.  Another good sign for Denver is that the Broncos were 7-0 in games without Von Miller.  And although he will miss the remainder of the playoffs, his presence or absence did not dramatically alter how the Broncos’ defense played, statistically speaking. 

But the best case for the Broncos is this: Like the Panthers, no one really believes in them (although they still are somehow a 9-point favorite – ridiculous).  Strange to think – a team with a Super Bowl-winning quarterback, with a record-setting offense, and that pretty much indisputably was the best team of the 2013 regular season, now is a team everyone seems to seriously doubt.  The past playoff woes of Manning and good offenses in general may be good long-term indicators, but you’re really saying that can’t win a single game in the playoffs?  For two straight seasons?  After playing in the AFC’s toughest division and beating the Chargers in San Diego when Wes Welker was healthy?

I think Manning is sick of the criticism he is receiving.  Do you realize he hasn’t won a playoff game since he beat the Jets in the 2009 AFC Championship game?  It’s a little similar to that crazy stat about Tom Brady going from January 2008 to January 2012 without a single playoff win.  You can only hold down a talent like that for so long; you’re asking us to believe that Peyton Manning will really go five years without a playoff victory?  And it’s not just Manning either.  This is the best offense in football and no other team was even close (Example: The Broncos scored 76 touchdowns, and the second-place Bengals scored 54).  If Demaryius Thomas had a bad game, then Eric Decker, Welker or Julius Thomas stepped up; if Knowshon Moreno looked sluggish, then Montee Ball and Ronnie Hillman picked up the pace.  And yes, the defense gave up nearly 400 points, but technically, they allowed only three opponents to score 28+ points.  This for a team which offensively scored 28+ points in all but three games.

This game will be a classic.  The winner has an excellent shot of making it to Super Bowl 48.  The Chargers are incredibly hot, but another first-round playoff exit for Peyton Manning just seems too crazy to be believed.   Every instinct in my brain tells me to pick the 9-point road underdog that the public loves.  That’s why I’m picking . . .

Prediction: Denver 34, San Diego 31

           

            Playoff doppelganger: 2009 NFC Championship Game, New Orleans 31, Minnesota 28 (OT).  Two classic quarterbacks, one classic game with a lot of turnovers and a now-immortal radio call.  Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers have had more tragic moments than Julianne Moore onscreen. It feels weird that one of them has to advance to the next round.