2024 Pre-Season Profile: Chicago White Sox

 #27

The Chicago White Sox entered 2023 with one of the most talented rosters in baseball, then they lost 100 games.  Could they have a better record in 2024 after trading away much of their roster?

2023 Predictions

#8 - 1st in AL Central, lose in ALDS

MIH - Luis Robert Jr.

MIP - Lucas Giolito

PTW - Oscar Colas

FP - Andrew Vaughn has a better season in 2023 than Jose Abreu.

2023 Results

#27 - 61-101, 4th in AL Central

Highest WAR (Position) - Luis Robert Jr.

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Mike Clevinger

There was a version of the 2023 season where the Chicago White Sox won the division.  It honestly seemed more likely that happened than they lose 100 games.  Yet here we are.  Direct quote from last year's article, "I have been really high on this team for three years in a row now...  If the White Sox fail me again, I'm out."  Well, it looks like the White Sox gave up too, starting to unload talent mid-season.  I will say, one of my favorite fearless predictions last year did pay off.  Neither had great seasons, but Andrew Vaughn finished with a 101 OPS+, .743 OPS, 21 homers, 80 RBI's, and a 0.9 WAR.  Former White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu had an 87 OPS+, .680 OPS, 18 homers, 90 RBI's, and a 0.0 WAR.  Advantage (barely) goes to Vaughn.  I guess the White Sox made one right decision entering 2023.

Additions / Subtractions

The White Sox were quite active this off-season.  Gone are Yasmani Grandal, Elvis Andrus, Tim Anderson, Seby Zavala, Mike Clevinger, Kendall Graveman, Gregory Santos, Aaron Bummer ... and that's not even including the mid-season trades last year of Jake Burger, Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn, and Reynaldo Lopez.  The addition list is nowhere near as impressive.  Entering the fold for 2024 are starters Michael Soroka, Erick Fedde, Chris Flexen, catcher Martin Maldonado, and infielders Nicky Lopez and Paul DeJong.

Most Important Hitter

Eloy Jimenez

No one on the White Sox roster better encapsulates this latest White Sox run than Eloy Jimenez.  Ever since he was acquired from the cross-town rival Cubs in 2017 in the Jose Quintana trade, Jimenez has been one of the most talented players on the White Sox roster.  However, injuries have kept Eloy from reaching his full potential, topping out at 122 games over the last 5 seasons, and that was his rookie year when he hit 31 homers.  Since then, his only other season over 100 games had him reaching 120 games and 18 homers.  The good news is that was last season.  This is the last year before Eloy hits free agency, and the hope of a healthy Jimenez leaves him as one of the most intriguing trade chips at the Trade Deadline.  As the White Sox are resetting the whole roster, a strong start from the slugger would bring back a maximum return in a trade.

Most Important Pitcher

Dylan Cease

Through all the turnover on the White Sox roster this off-season, possibly the biggest story was the move they didn't make.  Dylan Cease is still on the White Sox roster.  The Cy Young runner up in 2022 was nowhere near as effective in 2023, but with two years left before free agency, Cease remains a very hot commodity on the trade market.  Probably the only reason he wasn't traded was the very high asking price.  Now, just like Eloy Jimenez, the best thing Cease can do for the White Sox is start the year off as his 2022 self to bring back the king's ransom the White Sox want for their ace at the Trade Deadline or even next off-season.

Prospect to Watch

Colson Montgomery

The White Sox farm system is starting this rebuild in a not great spot, ranking 20th overall by MLB Pipeline with only 2 players in the Top 100 prospects.  However, one of those prospects is the 9th best prospect in baseball.  Colson Montgomery is a 22 year old shortstop that the White Sox took in the 1st round in 2021.  Drawing comparisons to Corey Seager as a tall, athletic, lefty hitting shortstop, his development and eventual debut in 2024 might be why face of the franchise Tim Anderson is no longer on the roster.  After the All Star Break, look for Montgomery to be called up simply so that the White Sox have something to cheer for.  They really need a win after last year's prospect to watch, Oscar Colas, flamed out spectacularly in 2023 and is barely considered a part of their long term plans anymore.

2024 Prediction

5th in AL Central

The White Sox might be the only team right now entering full rebuild mode.  With that said, thanks to their division, they are not guaranteed the cellar this season.  They also aren't done with their roster reset either.  It was bad last year when they were trying to be good.  It might be better this year as they start to try and be bad.  They do have further to go before they fully bottom out and build back up though.

Fearless Predictions

Eloy Jimenez and Dylan Cease will not be traded due to injuries.

Knowing the luck of the White Sox over the last handful of seasons, it would only make sense if their two best trade chips during a rebuild have injury-riddled seasons making them near untradable.  So of course that's what is going to happen.  It would be the perfect ending to one of the worst potential championship runs in recent memory.

2024 Pre-Season Profile: Colorado Rockies

 #28

The Colorado Rockies are stuck in one of the toughest divisions in all of baseball (there seem to be a lot of those this year...).  Will they be able to make a little noise in the top heavy NL West in 2024?

2023 Predictions

#27

MIH - Kris Bryant

MIP - German Marquez

PTW - Ezequiel Tovar

FP - Charlie Blackmon will not end the season in a Rockies uniform.

2023 Results

#28

Highest WAR (Position) - Nolan Jones

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Kyle Freeland

The arch of the 2023 Colorado Rockies was not a good one.  Two of their most established pitchers went down with Tommy John surgery mid-season, most of their lineup struggled to be average, and their big budget star has struggled to stay healthy, only playing in 122 games over 2 seasons.  Even when he is healthy, Kris Bryant has been inconsistent at best.  In 2023, he was just bad.  The one bright spot in 2023 was the emergence of Nolan Jones, who looks like a star in the making.

Additions / Subtractions

When you are a rebuilding team in a strong division with a megadeal contract weighing down your payroll, there's not much to do in the off-season besides develop the young talent you have.  They barely made any fringe moves to accent their roster with veterans.  The most notable adds this off-season were starting pitchers Cal Quantrill and Dakota Hudson, filling in the spots of German Marquez and Antonio Senzatela as they recover from the dreaded elbow surgery.  There aren't really any notable subtractions, and the offensive personnel is pretty much the same as they ended last year with.

Most Important Hitter

Nolan Jones

After a true breakout year in 2023, many people are now talking about Nolan Jones as the "best player you haven't heard of."  Although the expectations are warranted after a 138 OPS+ in 2023 with 20 homers, 20 steals, 62 RBI's, and a .297 average in just 106 games, that is a high bar for someone with just 134 total big league games under their belt.  With that said, if Nolan Jones is able to continue his growth and truly becomes the star many are expecting, he could be a face of the franchise moving forward.

Most Important Pitcher

Dakota Hudson

Dakota Hudson is probably the most interesting flier the Rockies are taking this year.  Once a highly-touted prospect, Hudson showed flashes of brilliance over the last 6 seasons in St. Louis, but he could never develop much consistency in performance or health.  Now he has a fresh start entering his age 29 season.  With the injuries in the Rockies rotation, Dakota Hudson is going to have every opportunity to prove what he can do.  If he does, he could stabilize a rotation that never has any stability.

Prospect to Watch

Zac Veen

The Rockies currently sport the 19th best farm system with 4 Top 100 prospects, but none of them are expected to be ready this season.  However, a former Top 100 prospect could be ready in Zac Veen.  With the 9th overall pick in the 2020 MLB Draft, the Rockies went with this high school prep outfielder that looked poised to be a star.  The start of his professional career showed that promise, but a wrist injury last season slowed his progress.  Now that Veen is healthy again, look for his swing to come back, his growth to continue, and for him to be manning a corner outfield spot opposite Nolan Jones before the end of the season.

2024 Prediction

5th in NL West

The Rockies are stuck in the cellar.  Their best case scenario in 2024 is to develop some of their young talent, establish a respectable rotation, watch Nolan Jones become a star ... and get beat up by the rest of their division.  In a few years, this could turn around, but not yet.

Fearless Prediction

Kris Bryant wins the 2024 Comeback Player of the Year.

You get a feeling that Kris Bryant has been so unreliable in his first two seasons in Denver that any contributions they get from him in 2024 are just a bonus to the player development they are working on with the rest of the roster.  However, you have to think Bryant still has something left in the tank.  He just has to stay healthy.  He's slated to be the everyday first baseman to try and keep him healthy.  If he plays over 100 games, he has a shot at the comeback title, which is one of the only awards Kris Bryant hasn't won in his crazy up-and-down career.

Ricky Stanicky (2024) Movie Review

After winning multiple Oscars in 2024, Peter Farrelly has taken an intriguing direction in his career. The Greatest Beer Run Ever was an attempt to make another quirky dramedy in a setting that could be considered for awards, but the release was lackluster and really never got a fair shake from critics (although audiences really liked it) because of the backlash to Green Book. For Ricky Stanicky, Farrelly returns to his roots in pure comedy, and he somehow created one of the funniest films of the past couple years. It is a throwback to 90s/early 00s comedy when there was actually an audience and taste for things that are funny.

Ricky Stanicky follows three guys Dean (Zac Efron), Wes (Jermaine Fowler), and JT (Andrew Santino), who have been best friends since their childhood. Back when they were kids, they pulled a Halloween prank that turned into a disaster, and they inadvertently stumbled upon a brilliant idea of creating an imaginary fourth best friend named Ricky Stanicky, who they would use as the guy they could blame whenever one of them gets in trouble, needs an excuse to do something, and really just a scapegoat to avoid ever having to take responsibility for anything.

Now that they are adults, they have a dilemma. JT’s wife is due to have a child, but the three of them really want to go to a concert in Atlantic City. They use Stanicky once again, and they head out of town to be with him through his “cancer”. There, they meet Rock-Hard Rod (John Cena), a Vegas-style performer/actor who dresses up and sings pornographic parodies of popular songs. Back in Rhode Island, their families are getting suspicious of Stanicky, since none of them have ever met him. They cook up the idea to hire Rod to come and play Stanicky at JT’s kid’s Bris, and the lies and everything related to Stanicky are on full display and in the crosshairs.

This is a pretty brilliant setup for comic misadventures. The role of Rod/Stanicky is a tricky one, and it could make or break the movie. It needs to be a really talented actor, since the comic timing mixed with the shifts to actual engaging scene-stealing acting is required. The role was reportedly given to James Franco around 2010, when the movie was first pitched. It was then passed to Joaquin Phoenix at that weird time in his career. Then Jim Carrey signed on to reunite with Farrelly. Then Nicolas Cage before the movie was shelved for a while. Farrelly wins an Oscar, then go figure we end up with John Cena. He is not on the level of those actors, clearly, but he has proven in movies like Trainwreck that he has real acting chops while being completely silly most of the time. He kills it in Ricky Stanicky, and it is absolutely one of the Jason Momoa in Fast X-type role that we will all be fond of and remember throughout the whole year, a performance that had no business being as effective as it was.

Efron is essentially playing the straight one in this movie, and when I read that the movie was first pitched in 2010, it was clear that he was the Jason Bateman role. Santino was the Jason Sudeikis. Fowler was the Craig Robinson. It would have worked. Here, we get an interesting mix in actors. Efron is showing that he is a potentially great leading man. Santino is a stand-up comedian who has now been in two underrated 2024 films (Scrambled being the other), and Fowler is probably most known for The Blackening, at least recently. I was not familiar with his work. The three of them are believable together and all bring something unique to their characters. William H. Macy is hilarious in this as the boss to Dean and JT, and Jeff Ross is also in this as a rabbi. Yes, Rabbi Jeff Ross (below).

The movie has tons of highlights, most of which are centered around Cena. His song and dance performances are ridiculous, but they are absolutely something I would have killed to see one of those A-list actors mentioned before tackling. The scene where Cena first shows up at the Bris in full method acting (sober) and just owns the entire party shows that Cena really has the whole package. He plays the part of an actor who was never going to get the role of a lifetime but was absolutely capable of delivering it if he wasn’t stuck singing “Spooge Out My Penis” in full Alice Cooper garb.

Ricky Stanicky highlights something that I find incredibly fascinating. The Farrelly brothers have split up, and they are making their own films. Last year, we got a Bobby Farrelly film called Champions, which was surprisingly funny and treated really touchy material with authenticity and heart. And it was genuinely funny. That is what Bobby brought to the group, while with Peter it is clear that he had the filmmaking talent while also being the one with the sophomoric sense of humor. Shift the conversation to the Coen brothers, and we see something much different. Joel is the masterful filmmaker who is interested in the craftsmanship of the film, while Ethan was clearly the goof. After the disaster that was Drive-Away Dolls and Joel’s incredibly cold The Tragedy of Macbeth, we see that they need each other to not only keep each other grounded, but to also reign in their annoying tendencies. The Farrellys seem more equipped to handle things on their own, but we just won’t see another Shallow Hal or Kingpin where those two styles blend together perfectly.

There was a trend about a decade ago when these types of films were really common and big hits. Game Night, Horrible Bosses, and probably most notably Tag were movies where you had really good actors put into a completely outrageous premise, and the result was usually comedy gold because the actors actually take it seriously. This is another one in that tradition, but for some reason it didn’t really pick up any traction and wound up being a direct to Amazon Prime movie. I’m not necessarily complaining, it is hilarious and right there for everyone to watch for free, but it just gives more fuel to the groupthink critics who are still feeling raw about Green Book. Give this movie a chance, it is the funniest film I have seen in at least 6 months, and it is low-key the best movie released in 2024 so far. Grab a couple beers and check it out! It would have been a riot to see with a big audience, but it plays just fine at home.

3 stars

What are your thoughts on Ricky Stanicky? Do you like the direction Peter Farrelly is going in? Let me know in the comments!

2024 Pre-Season Profile: Washington Nationals

 #29

The Washington Nationals are still rebuilding, but many of their highly-touted prospects are on the verge of a big league debut.  How long before they can contend again?

2023 Predictions

#29 - 5th in NL East

MIH - Joey Meneses

MIP - MacKenzie Gore

PTW - Cade Cavalli

FP - The last of the remaining players from the 2019 World Series run will play their last games in a Nationals uniform in 2023.

2023 Results

#26 - 71-91, 5th in NL West

Highest WAR (Position) - CJ Abrams

Highest WAR (Pitching) - Josiah Gray

The extend that the rebuild has gone since the 2019 World Series win is extensive and impressive.  The 2023 season was one of very little consequence or relevance for the Nationals.  In one of the most competitive divisions in baseball, they were locked in the cellar from the moment the season started.  It also saw the end of the Stephen Strasburg era as injuries forced him to retire.  However, there were sparks of promise from the likes of CJ Abrams, Stone Garrett, and Lane Thomas.  If only Patrick Corbin could pitch well, he could have been traded for more prospects.

Additions / Subtractions

The Nats took some fliers on some reclamation projects in the few off-season moves they made.  The master of the three true outcomes, Joey Gallo, will be contributing his 30 homers and and .150 average to the DC area in 2024.  The more interesting add is infielder Nick Senzel, once a top Reds prospect, now getting a fresh start after new top prospects left him without a job at the ripe old age of 28.

Most Important Hitter

Keibert Ruiz

One of the main prizes of the Max Scherzer trade a few years back, Keibert Ruiz has turned himself into one of the more promising young catchers in the league.  Now, entering his age 25 season, he is poised to take the next step and become a potential face of the franchise.

Most Important Pitcher

Patrick Corbin

Patrick Corbin turned a career year with the Diamondbacks in 2018 into a huge 6 year contract with the Nationals.  Despite being a major piece in the championship run in 2019, the Nationals would admit the contract has been an epic disappointment, being a below average pitcher the last 4 years and leading the league in losses each of the last 3 years.  Now he is entering his final year of his contract, and the only value he can provide the Nationals would be to show a version of his younger self in the early parts of the year so he would have some trade value at the Trade Deadline.  There's a good chance if he doesn't perform well enough to be traded, he might just be DFA'ed and see his career possibly come to an abrupt end.

Prospect to Watch

James Wood

Now for the exciting part of the Nationals!  Not only do they have some young talent already in their lineup like CJ Abrams and Keibert Ruiz, but they have more phenoms ready to burst on the scene as they sport the 14th best farm system in baseball.  The name baseball fans should get to know first is probably James Wood.  This 21 year old outfielder was a key piece the Padres sent in the Juan Soto trade of 2022, and now he is ready to show why.  Ranked the 12th best prospect in baseball, Wood is a 6'6" 234lb athlete that can crush the ball and outrun the best of them.  The only thing that could keep him from being the centerfielder of the future in DC is Dylan Crews, the 2nd overall pick last year that also could debut this season.

2024 Prediction

5th in NL East

If all their promise breaks out like they could, this could be the last season the Nationals spend in the cellar for awhile, which is saying something considering the division they are in.  There's a chance their lineup truly becomes elite by the end of the season, but their pitching will hold them back.  There's just no depth and much fewer reinforcements from their top prospects to help.

Fearless Prediction

MacKenzie Gore will be an All Star in 2024.

Another prize of the Juan Soto trade, along with CJ Abrams and James Wood, was MacKenzie Gore.  Good enough to be the 3rd overall pick on 2017 out of high school, Gore has yet to show much of the promise everyone expected.  With that said, 2023 did show some progress, having a 2 win season and almost being league average.  He's only entering his age 25 season.  There's a chance this is the year Gore puts it all together and shows why he was a top pick, a top prospect, and such a valuable trade chip.

2024 MLB Pre-Season Profile: Oakland A's

#30

I'm off to a bit of a late start, but it doesn't feel like March unless I am feverishly writing my baseball preview articles.  This season is set up to be a wild one, with only maybe 5 or 6 teams not realistic contenders for a playoff spot.  Of course we start at the bottom and work our way to the top.

If we are talking about the bottom of the MLB, there's only one place to start in almost every aspect.  The Oakland A's ... or Las Vegas A's ... or maybe the Sacramento A's ... are a dumpster fire in almost every way.  Oakland has shown they don't want to support them, Vegas isn't sure they want them, they don't have a place to play when their lease ends after this season, they have the worst owner in baseball, they have the worst roster in baseball, they have the worst stadium in baseball ... instead of begging the team to stay, fans are begging the owner to sell the team.  I don't know if I have ever seen a professional franchise in a worse spot than the 2024 A's.  Let's see if there's anything to look forward to...

 

2023 Predictions

#30 - 5th in AL West

MIH - Shea Langeliers

MIP - Shintaro Fujinami

PTW - Ken Waldichuk

FP - In the next 12 months, it will be announced that the A's are moving to Las Vegas.

2023 Results

#30 - 50-112, 5th in AL West

Highest WAR (Position) - Zack Gelof

Highest WAR (Pitching) - JP Sears

Very little good happened for the A's in 2023.  The hitter they've been waiting to pop was below average, their most exciting pitcher was traded mid-season after less than a year with the team, and their most touted prospect is starting the season on the 60 day IL.  They barely averaged 10,000 fans a night, and they did indeed announce their upcoming move.  The only real sparks they had were second baseman Zack Gelof and speedster outfielder Esteury Ruiz, who look like they could be budding stars.

Additions / Subtractions

The roster has finally reached the studs, and it's time to start the rebuild.  No stars were dealt because there were no stars left.  So the A's were quiet this off-season, adding a few veterans here and there just to fill out the roster.  So enter starting pitchers Alex Wood and Ross Stripling, who are sure to be dealt mid-season for prospects.  They also added utility infielder Abraham Toro to replace Tony Kemp.  That's about it.

Most Important Hitter

JJ Bleday

This roster is full of unfulfilled potential, and JJ Bleday might be the best example of that.  Once a top prospect in the Marlins system, Bleday was traded last off-season for flamethrower AJ Puk, both sides hoping the change of scenery would help them reach their lofty expectations.  So far, Bleday hasn't found it, hitting .195 with a 91 OPS+ in only 82 games.  If he figures things out and shows why he was the 4th overall pick in 2019, the A's might start to resemble a respectable lineup,

Most Important Pitcher

Ross Stripling

Let's face it, at this point in the A's development, the most valuable players are the veterans on 1 year deals that could have good first halves and be flipped for prospects at the deadline.  The most intriguing of these candidates is Ross Stripling.  Once an All Star in 2018 with the Dodgers, Stripling had a really good 2022 in Toronto but a disappointing 2023 in San Francisco.  Now he's entering his age 34 season looking for a bounce back season.  If he starts strong, he will be a valuable trade chip, especially with his versatility and experience as a bullpen swingman.

Prospect to Watch

Mason Miller

Not only are the A's stripped down for a rebuild as they get ready to leave Oakland, but their farm system is one of the worst in the league, ranking 25th with only one top 100 prospect.  Their highest prospect that could impact the big league club is pitcher Mason Miller.  The 25 year old righty has a huge fastball that dazzled in 10 games in Oakland in 2023.  Due to some arm issues, the A's will be trying him in the bullpen to start 2024 and might develop into their closer.

2024 Prediction

5th in AL West

It's gonna be bad.  Really really bad.  Add to that the fact that it will probably be the team's last season in Oakland, and it might be the worst season in MLB history.  Unless ownership turns over a new leaf, Oakland will be happy to get rid of them and Vegas won't really be happy to have them.

Fearless Prediction

Esteury Ruiz will flirt with 100 steals.

No one has stolen 100 bases in a season since the days of Rickey Henderson and the 1980's.  With the new rules that took effect last year, and a team that will be out of contention on Opening Day, a speedster like Ruiz will have a chance to run with abandon and go for a big steals number.  The only question is if he could get on base consistently enough to swipe that many bags.  Last year, he had 67 steals with only a .309 OBP.  If he becomes just an average hitter and on base guy, Oakland might actually have something to cheer for.

Reactions to the Oscar Nominations: 2024

We finally have the Oscar nominations! There were plenty of surprises, snubs, encouraging nominations, and absolute head-scratchers. We had TEN first-time nominees in the acting categories alone! They usually don’t care about spreading the wealth, but here we are. Check out my reactions below, along with my coolest first-time nominees, stats, and other content. Enjoy!

BEST PICTURE
American Fiction

Anatomy of a Fall

Barbie

The Holdovers

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Past Lives

Poor Things

The Zone of Interest

Predicted: 10 for 10

Reactions: This was the most obvious Best Picture lineup since 2010. There really weren’t any other contenders that were strong enough to break through, especially when seeing what happened in the other nominations. This is a pretty strong list, whether you like the films nominated or not, these are all films with a lot of fans and passion behind them.

Preliminary prediction: Oppenheimer

BEST DIRECTOR

Justine Triet - Anatomy of a Fall

Martin Scorsese - Killers of the Flower Moon

Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer

Yorgos Lanthimos - Poor Things

Jonathan Glazer - The Zone of Interest

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: Here, we have one American director, which is becoming more and more the Academy thing to do. At what point do we start separating this out and having a Best Foreign Director and Best American Director? Just a thought. I had Greta Gerwig getting the fifth spot, but the Academy went with the foreign female director to satisfy that spot. This really shows the strength of Anatomy of a Fall too, which got in everywhere it needed to. And it is also curtains for Barbie’s Best Picture chances. Yorgos Lanthimos is now one of the most bankable Oscar directors in the world. I had him missing for previous Oscar favorite Alexander Payne.

Preliminary prediction: Christopher Nolan

BEST ACTOR

Bradley Cooper - Maestro

Colman Domingo - Rustin

Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers

Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer

Jeffrey Wright - American Fiction

Predicted: 5 for 5

Reactions: There really isn’t much to say here, this was the pretty much consensus five after Leonardo DiCaprio missed the SAG and BAFTA lineups. This is a cool list, and like last year, we really don’t know where this category is going. We will see at SAG what we are looking at for sure, but this is pretty wide open (at least between 3 of the contenders).

Preliminary prediction: Bradley Cooper

BEST ACTRESS

Annette Bening - Nyad

Lily Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon

Sandra Huller - Anatomy of a Fall

Carey Mulligan - Maestro

Emma Stone - Poor Things

Predicted: 5 for 5

Reactions: I stuck with Nyad after all the ups and downs of that campaign. Don’t underestimate the power of Netflix. Bening is still one of the best actresses in the world without an Oscar win. Greta Lee was always wishful thinking, and of course Margot Robbie didn’t really give an Oscar friendly performance. That was one of my most confident snub predictions since I first saw the movie. This is an open race after Gladstone got snubbed by BAFTA. 

Preliminary prediction: Emma Stone

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Sterling K. Brown - American Fiction

Robert De Niro - Killers of the Flower Moon

Robert Downey Jr. - Oppenheimer

Ryan Gosling - Barbie

Mark Ruffalo - Poor Things

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I swapped Mark Ruffalo for Willem Dafoe. Other than that, this was the SAG top five. Sterling K. Brown is a truly puzzling nomination (I had him out for my long shot pick Peter Sarsgaard). Brown is, along with the likes of J.K. Simmons in Being the Ricardos, one of the most nondescript acting nominations since I have been following. He is a beloved actor, though, so it is not entirely surprising; the TV actors are getting nominated by the Academy more and more. Robert De Niro now has the longest time between first and last nominations (clearing Katharine Hepburn by three years…and now Jodie Foster by two years). This category seems like it is pretty much over, but it is a pretty amazing group of actors. Gosling takes the reins from Ke Huy Quan as the strangest nominee in category history. Don’t ever act like comedy is not in the Academy taste anymore.

Preliminary prediction: Robert Downey Jr.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Emily Blunt - Oppenheimer

Danielle Brooks - The Color Purple

America Ferrera - Barbie

Jodie Foster - Nyad

Da’Vine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had America Ferrera as a nominee for the longest time! I couldn’t predict her after the SAG snub, though. I am happy for her, she had the Oscar scene the same way Downey did in the previous category. I had Julianne Moore taking her place. Emily Blunt is the weak link in her movie, but she had never been nominated despite tons of precursors over the years, so I am happy for her as well. I can’t hate this category too much.

Preliminary prediction: Da’Vine Joy Randolph

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Anatomy of a Fall

The Holdovers

Maestro

May December

Past Lives

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I stuck with Air until the end, and I missed Maestro. It is just not fun to predict biopics for screenplay nominations. This category is wide open with Barbie switching to its rightful place in Adapted Screenplay. I have to lean with the Globe winner here.

Preliminary prediction: Anatomy of a Fall

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

American Fiction

Barbie

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

The Zone of Interest

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: Against my better judgment, I had Killers of the Flower Moon still getting in over The Zone of Interest and its late surge BAFTA nomination. For one of the first times in a long time, any one of these movies can win in this category. I think the most unique nominee of them will rise above to take it.

Preliminary prediction: American Fiction

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

El Conde

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I knew I should have had Maestro! The industry loves that movie way more than critics and audiences. I had The Zone of Interest taking its spot. Also, note to the filmmakers: make your movie black and white, and you will get an Oscar nomination.

Preliminary prediction: Oppenheimer

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Barbie

Killers of the Flower Moon

Napoleon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Predicted: 5 for 5

Reactions: Nothing to see here. This was the most obvious top five of any category.

Preliminary prediction: Barbie

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Barbie

Killers of the Flower Moon

Napoleon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: Wow, Oppenheimer...the Academy doesn’t usually go for basic suits for the costume category. I will say I enjoyed the birthday ones! This category is so dumb, and it matches Production Design perfectly. I had Wonka (shut out) and The Color Purple (one nom) in over Oppenheimer and Napoleon. Ok…

Preliminary prediction: Barbie

BEST SOUND

The Creator

Maestro

Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One

Oppenheimer

The Zone of Interest

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had Killers of the Flower Moon and Napoleon in for Mission: Impossible (first ever nomination for the franchise) and The Creator. It is interesting how they vote on this category now. This year, it was clearly the flashy sound work and action movies, when sometimes it leans more in the old Sound Mixing tendencies. I still haven’t entirely figured out how to predict the single sound category.

Preliminary prediction: Oppenheimer

BEST FILM EDITING

Anatomy of a Fall

The Holdovers

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had Maestro and Barbie in for Anatomy of a Fall and Poor Things. This is a weird category. A couple of them are legitimately bad editing, and the others are the ones that are 3+ hours and The Holdovers. Barbie missing here is a strange omission.

Preliminary prediction: Oppenheimer

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

The Creator

Godzilla Minus One

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One

Napoleon

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had Society of the Snow and Poor Things in for Napoleon and Mission: Impossible. This just proves that I had no idea how to predict some of these movies. Every spot I had them they missed, and every spot I had a snub, they got in. Such is the life of an Oscar prognosticator.

Preliminary prediction: Godzilla Minus One

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Golda

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Society of the Snow

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I went with an outside-the-box pick with The Last Voyage of the Demeter in favor of Oppenheimer. I don’t even know what makeup work there really was in that movie.

Preliminary prediction: Maestro

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“The Fire Inside” - Flamin' Hot

“I’m Just Ken” - Barbie

“It Never Went Away” - American Symphony

Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People) - Killers of the Flower Moon

"What Was I Made For?" - Barbie

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I missed the Flower Moon song in favor of the terrible Rustin song, and I had “Dance the Night” in over “Man or Muppet”...I mean…”I’m Just Ken” as the second Barbie song. The ovation for Diane Warren at the nomination announcement was crazy. Can she finally win one? Nope.

Preliminary prediction: “What Was I Made For?”

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

American Fiction

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had American Fiction in there! That was one of my best stabs. I missed Poor Things in favor of The Zone of Interest. Having not seen the latter, I guess it just doesn’t have a lot of music in it. Maybe I would have gone another way had I known that. Congratulations John Williams on being still the oldest Oscar nominee (92 at the time of the upcoming ceremony).

Preliminary prediction: Oppenheimer

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Bobi Wine: The People’s President

The Eternal Memory

Four Daughters

To Kill a Tiger

20 Days in Mariupol

Predicted: 2 for 5

Reactions: Ugh…I suck at this. I missed everything but Mariupol and Four Daughters in favor of Going to Mars, Beyond Utopia, and American Symphony. This category is always so weird. They hate celeb docs, and they hate archival footage…except when they don’t! I don’t know what to do here. I’ll stick with my pre-nomination prediction.

Preliminary prediction: Four Daughters

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM

Io Capitano

Perfect Days

Society of the Snow

The Teachers’ Lounge

The Zone of Interest

Predicted: 2 for 5

Reactions: I had The Taste of Things (like everyone else), Fallen Leaves, and Totem in over everything but Society of the Snow and Zone. They went without the French nominee when Anatomy of a Fall wasn’t selected, which is entertaining. I wasn’t really familiar with that Italian movie. Interesting group…I have some catching up to do.

Preliminary prediction: The Zone of Interest

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

The Boy and the Heron

Elemental

Nimona

Robot Dreams

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem in over Robot Dreams, which I thought was just way too small to get in, but this voting branch is always a little quirky. This is actually a compelling race. There isn’t one film that was really beloved and got multiple nominations like we have seen in the past, so it is really anyone’s game.

Preliminary prediction: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Overall predictions: 78/105; 74.29% (76.19% in 2023)

Without the last 5 categories: 63/80; 78.75% (78.75% in 2023)

On the Big 8 categories: 38/45; 84.44% (82.22% in 2023)

So, I did pretty much the same as last year, even with a few perfect categories. I really need to focus more on those throughout the year. Maybe I will start to include every category in my fall predictions… Still, it was not a bad showing from me!

10 COOLEST FIRST-TIME NOMINEES

1. Emily Blunt

2. Jeffrey Wright

3. Cillian Murphy

4. Lily Gladstone

5. America Ferrera

6. Sterling K. Brown

7. Peter Sohn

8. Danielle Brooks

9. Colman Domingo

10. Jared Hess (yes, the director of Napoleon Dynamite)

…also Robbie Robertson (RIP), Da’Vine Joy Randolph, Sandra Huller, Jonathan Glazer, Justine Triet, Celine Song, and ALMOST Seth Rogen

10 WORST SNUBS

1. Glenn Howerton for Best [Supporting] Actor

2. Leonardo DiCaprio for Best Actor

3. Rachel McAdams for Best Supporting Actress

4. The Iron Claw in all eligible categories

5. Teyana Taylor for Best Actress

6. John Wick: Chapter 4 for Best Cinematography

7. Society of the Snow for Best Visual Effects and Best Sound

8. Greta Lee for Best Actress

9. Renfield for Best Makeup/Hairstyling

10. Dominic Sessa for Best [Supporting] Actor

IF THERE WERE 5 NOMINEES…

1. Oppenheimer

2. Killers of the Flower Moon

3. American Fiction

4. Anatomy of a Fall

5. Barbie

That’s all for today! Oscar nomination morning is always one of my favorite days of the year. Cheers!

Stay tuned for our 16th Annual Oscar Challenge!