Since my last Oscar predictions article in March, a lot has happened to
shake up the race. A handful of contenders have already gotten their early
release that will probably negatively impact their Oscar chances. We are also
still eagerly awaiting trailer arrivals of our last two legitimate frontrunners
Foxcatcher and
Labor Day. Usually the longer the film stays out of the public eye,
the better chance it has of sustaining buzz throughout awards season. So, good
news for those two films, I guess. My last article is going to seem a bit
foolish as we sit here six months later, but that is all part of the fun of it.
See how the race is shaping up below:
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The
Predicted Five
1. Labor Day – Jason Reitman – The movie sounds like something
that could be this year’s Little Children
or something. It needs a trailer to cement its status in the major categories,
but Reitman is becoming one of the more beloved writer-directors of our time.
2. The Wolf of Wall Street – Terence Winter – Everyone loves Boardwalk Empire. It is a Scorsese
movie. It seems like a near lock in this category.
3. Before Midnight – Richard Linklater, Ethan Hawke, Julie Delpy –
The previous installment was nominated here, and this is even more of a
screenplay achievement. With a good DVD campaign, this nomination should be a
no-brainer.
4. Foxcatcher – E Max Frye, Dan Futterman – A writer on Band of Brothers and the writer of Capote combine for this potentially fascinating
character study. If it is any good, this nomination will come flying its way.
5. 12 Years a Slave – John Ridley – This movie has a lot going for
it. I could see it being a potentially huge Oscar movie. This nomination should
be no problem for the previously unaccomplished veteran writer.
Others
in contention
6. The Fifth Estate – Josh Singer – The movie is very timely and
seemingly intense. Screenplay seems like the film’s best shot at hitting at the
Oscars.
7. The Monuments Men – George Clooney, Grant Heslov – The movie’s
trailer was brilliant, but sort of hurt its Oscar chances. This seems to be
more of a blockbuster, almost in a Gangster
Squad kind of way. Hopefully it is better than that, but screenplay is its
perceived ceiling at this point. But then again, it is George Clooney…
8. Captain Phillips – Billy Ray – The movie is going to take place
solely on a boat, which will make the writing vital to its success. I like its
chances here.
9. August: Osage County – Tracy Letts – Screenplays based on plays
are not recognized here often, but the movie is going to be a big hit.
10. (Lee Daniels’) The Butler – Danny Strong – Everyone seems to
really like Strong’s writing, and the movie is one of the underdog contenders
for the top prize.
11. The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
– Steve Conrad – The movie surprised everyone with its trailer. Even if it
hits, this might be an uphill climb for the film. It is still in the running,
though.
12. The Spectacular Now – Scott Neustadter, Michael H Weber –
Nostalgic movies like this do not get recognized often, but this could be the
best chance for an indie hit to get in this year.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The
Predicted Five
1. American Hustle – Eric Singer – It is probably the frontrunner
for the big prize. A screenplay nom should be easy, and the win seems likely
for the relative newcomer.
2. Inside Llewyn Davis – Joel Coen, Ethan Coen – Screenplay nominations
are the base recognition for the Coens. The other categories are the ones that
are really in question.
3. Fruitvale Station – Ryan Coogler – Even if they do not want to
give major category love to the movie, screenplay seems like an easy way to
express appreciation for the film and the young debut writer-director.
4. Blue Jasmine – Woody Allen – His drama movies are usually even
more of a lock for screenplay than his comedies. This should be an easy
nomination for Woody.
5. Parkland – Peter Landesman – If the movie is as good as it
looks, then a screenplay nom should be assured just for handling that many
different characters well.
Others
in contention
6. Saving Mr. Banks – Kelly Marcel, Sue Smith – The movie is going
to be a big hit. Even if it is a bit light, the Academy gives screenplay nominations
to the movies they love. This promises to be one of those films.
7. Rush – Peter Morgan – Every time Morgan writes a movie, we
should pay attention. I don’t know how awards friendly the movie will be, but
the historical Ron Howard movies have been hugely successful in the past.
8. Gravity – Alfonso Cuaron, Jonas Cuaron – With a movie as isolated
as this one, it is going to be all about the writing to determine whether it is
believable.
9. All Is Lost – JC Chandor – Same as Gravity.
10. The Counselor – Cormac McCarthy – His novels make great movies.
We will see if his screenplays do the same.
11. Kill Your Darlings – Austin Brunn,
John Korkidas – The movie looks like it could suffer the same unfortunate
fate as On the Road last year, but it
has a great trailer and a terrific young cast. It looks sophisticated and
well-written.
12. Don Jon – Joseph Gordon-Levitt – It may be too dirty for the
Academy, but it looks amazing. This would be an awesome nomination.
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
The
Predicted Five
1. Jennifer Garner – Dallas Buyers Club – She still has
got to be the frontrunner, especially after the trailer. She and her hubby Ben
Affleck are in the news all the time. That usually helps.
2. Shirley MacLaine – The Secret Life of Walter Mitty –
She is in one of the frontrunners and she hasn’t been nominated in 29 years.
She seems like a safe bet.
3. Oprah Winfrey – The Butler – Ever since I saw the
cast for this movie, I suspected she would get nominated. That hasn’t changed.
4. Cameron Diaz – The Counselor – She is always in and
around awards movies, but she has yet to get the big Oscar nom. This looks like
her best chance yet, even better than Vanilla
Sky and Being John Malkovich.
5. Jennifer Lawrence – American Hustle – She looks great in
the trailer. She is going to be talked about all year again with Catching Fire coming out. Look for a
third nom for the 23 year old megastar.
Others
in contention
6. Elizabeth Olsen – Oldboy – She has one of the best
parts in the movie. I can’t wait to see what Spike Lee does with it/her. If she
nails it, she could easily slide in.
7. Octavia Spencer – Fruitvale Station – She is emotional
and subtle. It is not a typical Oscar role, but she is fantastic and the
category is sort of thin.
8. Carey Mulligan – Inside Llewyn Davis – She has had a
handful of worthy roles, but she still has just that one nom. The Coens could
carry her to her second.
9. Sally Hawkins – Blue Jasmine – She was outstanding
in her supporting role. Woody does wonders for his supporting women. If the
Academy really likes the movie, look out for a potential win for Hawkins.
10. Scarlett Johansson – Don Jon – She looks like she nails
the look and accent of New Jersey white trash. It would be a cool and atypical
choice for the four-time Golden Globe nominee.
11. Marcia Gay Harden – Parkland – In the terrific ensemble,
I suspect that a former winner like Harden has the best chance of getting
singled out.
12. Emily Watson – The Book Thief – The movie sounds
very Oscary, and she hasn’t been invited back since 1998. That should change.
13. Kim Basinger – Third Person – She is being directed
by Paul Haggis. She hasn’t been nominated since her win in 1997. Oscar always
loves to validate wins with nominations later on.
14. Cate Blanchett – The Monuments Men – She looks like
the standout in the movie. It might not be serious enough to be a big Oscar movie,
but she is Cate Blanchett. Everyone loves her. A double nom is possible.
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
The
Predicted Five
1. Tom Hanks – Saving Mr. Banks – Hanks playing
Walt Disney is a heavenly casting choice. We will see if it lives up to the hype.
Either way, a first career supporting nom should be easy for him.
2. John Goodman – Inside Llewyn Davis – Everyone seems
eager to finally throw him a bone. He is the best part of the trailer. The
Coens have a gift for writing amazing parts for him. I love his chances.
3. Daniel Bruhl – Rush – He is going to have a
breakout year with this and The Fifth
Estate. His part here is said to be great and show-stealing.
4. Jared Leto – Dallas Buyers Club – He could get
the nom just like Jaye Davidson did for The
Crying Game playing a similar part. He looks scary realistic in this role.
If the Academy can get over the perceived grudge against him, his nom seems
secure.
5. Michael Fassbender – 12 Years a Slave – It seems like
every year I am writing about him getting his first nomination. The villain
role in one of the frontrunners seems like his best chance yet.
Others
in contention
6. Bradley Cooper – American Hustle – He has the
villain-type role, which Oscar will love. He also had his best work in The Place Beyond the Pines. He may
snatch up his second nom in as many years.
7. Paul Dano – Prisoners – He looks positively
frightening in that movie. He was probably in the top 10 or so for There Will Be Blood and Little Miss Sunshine, so the Academy
will not feel too opposed to giving the talented young character actor his
first nom.
8. Matthew McConaughey – The Wolf of Wall Street – It appears
to be his year. A potential double nom would ensure that he wins for one of
them.
9. Matthew McConaughey – Mud – It is still one of the safest
and best reviewed movies of the year. He How much has the Academy warmed up to
him?
10. Mark Ruffalo – Foxcatcher – He seems to be the one
of the three leads most likely to go supporting. He is likely going to have a
very sympathetic role, which will be against type. I am beyond intrigued by the
casting in this film.
11. Barkhad Abdi – Captain Phillips – The more trailers
I see for the film, the more his role seems to be more than just a one-note
throwaway villain role. If the movie is really popular, looks for the Academy
to try to get another newcomer invited to the ceremony.
12. Woody Harrelson – Out of the Furnace – The movie has
some quiet buzz, but judging by the trailer, he seems to have the role to still
be in contention.
13. Will Forte – Nebraska – He could get swept in
with the love for the film. Some have said that he is co-lead with Bruce Dern,
but he will wind up being campaigned in this category.
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
The
Predicted Five
1. Emma Thompson – Saving Mr. Banks – I think that the
two-time winner is still the favorite in the category. The movie seems light,
but she looks terrific in it. It is rare that Best Actress goes to the gutsiest
role (except in 2010), so she has got to be the frontrunner at this point.
2. Judi Dench – Philomena – Her role sounds
emotional and perfect for her. She gets nominated for everything.
3. Meryl Streep – August: Osage County – She has been
shifting between lead and supporting, but she will eventually land here and
maybe win her fourth.
4. Kate Winslet – Labor Day – She seems to get
nominated whenever she has a really good role. This movie seems to be written
for her, which Reitman has admitted that he does often.
5. Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine – Dench, Strepp,
Winslet, Blanchett…it is Oscars circa 2006 all over again. She has the mentally
unstable character and maybe the best Woody Allen leading female since Annie Hall. She is a lock for a nom, but
a win seems unlikely.
Others
in contention
6. Amy Adams – American Hustle – She is said to
have the best role in the movie. She could be the Jessica Chastain of this
year, or they could just make her continue to wait for her first leading
nomination.
7. Marion Cotillard – Lowlife The Immigrant – I
still think she will be a threat, even if the movie is not as popular as it
first promised to be. She plays the stripper role, which Oscar always loves.
8. Julia Roberts – August: Osage County – She will
likely split votes with Streep, but perhaps the movie will be popular enough
that they both get in.
9. Berenice Bejo – The Past – Her role sounds terrific.
Maybe the voters are still enough in love with The Artist and A Separation
that they will want to nom her.
10. Naomi Watts – Diana – The movie looks way too
conventional, but that doesn’t always stop the voters. It seems like a dream
casting for Watts.
11. Nicole Kidman – Grace of Monaco – I do not
completely buy her playing Grace Kelly, but she has been cited as being
incredible in the role. Oscar still loves her.
12. Sandra Bullock – Gravity – It is said to be all
Bullock in the movie. She seems poised for a second nom soon.
13. Chloe Grace-Moretz – Carrie – If the Academy wants to go
for cool and outside the box like when Sissy Spacek was nominated for the same
role, then this would certainly have people talking.
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
The
Predicted Five
1. Matthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyers Club – The trailer
confirmed that McConaughey is going after the Oscar. The role appears to be his
most difficult ever, and he is the hero of the story. Sounds like Oscar cannot
resist…if they feel he has finally paid his dues.
2. Forest Whitaker – The Butler – His last win has
undoubtedly left some goodwill with the voters. He is said to carry this
star-studded movie. I think a nom for him is assured.
3. Bruce Dern – Nebraska – There was debate on
whether he was lead or supporting. Either way, it seems like a role that cannot
miss with the voters. With all of his great work in his career, he still only
has that one supporting nom for Coming
Home. That is about to change.
4. Robert Redford – All Is Lost – He needs a second acting
nom, and this Cast Away-ish role
seems like a “can’t miss” with Oscar voters.
5. Chiwetel Ejiofor – 12 Years a Slave – He should have
gotten in by now, but this role looks like his best ever. Even if the film is
not beloved, look for him to show up throughout the precursors a lot like
Fassbender did for Shame and make a
run at a nom anyway.
Others
in contention
6. Idris Elba – Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom – There
is not any real reason as to why he lost the top spot, other than his movie
looks a bit more conventional than I was hoping for. Sometimes that is just
what the Academy is looking for, though.
7. Josh Brolin – Labor Day – His role sounded like a
lock when he was supporting, but if he is lead, that type of role is a much
tougher sell.
8. Steve Carell – Foxcatcher – I want so bad for him
to be incredible in the movie. Give me a trailer already so I can cement him in
my top 5! If he is supporting, then he is getting in anyway.
9. Christian Bale – American Hustle – He looks almost
unrecognizable in the trailer (surprise, surprise…). He is one of the hottest
actors going right now. He will get his votes.
10. Hugh Jackman – Prisoners – The movie looks campy,
but it could be our next great revenge thriller. Everyone seems to love
Jackman. Why not a second consecutive nom?
11. Oscar Isaac – Inside Llewyn Davis – If he were a
bigger name, I would think that he is a lock. We will see how many reviews
single him out to determine his eventual fate in this category.
12. Tom Hanks – Captain Phillips – He is going to be
in the spotlight all awards season with this and his supposedly supporting turn
as Walt Disney. This does not seem to be too far out of his comfort zone, but
he is Tom Hanks, so he is in contention.
13. Michael B. Jordan – Fruitvale Station – He is the best
thing from the first half or so of the year. The movie will regain some buzz in
the next month or so with the DVD release. Hopefully voters see it. He and the
film are kind of terrific.
14. Leonardo DiCaprio – The Wolf of Wall Street – DiCaprio still
only has three nominations somehow. The role appears a bit too Gatsby-ish. That
could hurt his chances.
15. Ralph Fiennes – The Invisible Woman – There really
is no word on the status of this movie, but Fiennes has had some incredible
work recently and hasn’t gotten invited back since The English Patient. Playing Charles Dickens could finally be his
ticket back to the show.
16. Channing Tatum – Foxcatcher – The stills we have seen
suggest that Tatum is getting back to his A
Guide to Recognizing Your Saints authentic acting, which was one of the
best performances of 2006. He is billed as lead, which will be difficult for
members to vote for him. He can carry the movie though.
BEST DIRECTOR
The
Predicted Five
1. David O. Russell – American Hustle – David O. Russell
has been close to winning this his last two times out. If this is as popular of
a movie as it could be, then he could potentially win here even if his film
isn’t Best Picture material. It appears the Academy has completely forgotten
about what a jerk he used to be to his actors…
2. Jason Reitman – Labor Day – I will continue to hype
this movie until I am proven wrong. Reitman is at his best when he is totally
in control. His directions are always a bit more sophisticated and showy than
they need to be. Oscar likes that.
3. Joel Coen, Ethan Coen – Inside Llewyn Davis – It doesn’t
matter what the movie is. The Coens make a movie, and they get put in this
category. They are our generation’s Billy Wilder.
4. Steve McQueen – 12 Years a Slave – The Academy would
love to recognize a director like McQueen with an Oscar nom. He would be just
the third black director nominated in the category, but few of them have the
prestige of McQueen with his first two indie hits.
5. Martin Scorsese – The Wolf of Wall Street – If Marty’s
picture is in or around a Best Picture nomination, then he will get nominated
here. The trailer just looks too good to be true. Maybe it could turn into his
next Casino and just be a more
commercial hit, but I am expecting greatness.
Others
in contention
6. Peter Landesman – Parkland – The film appears to be a
good bet for recognition from the acting branch. Will they really nominate a
director whose only other feature was the largely unseen cable-ish drama Trade? Maybe. They have done crazier
things before, like snubbing Ben Affleck.
7. Bennett Miller – Foxcatcher – He was left off for Moneyball, and in some ways this could
be another sports movie. Those are an easy sell for BP, but for directors, it
is trickier. This could be more of a Raging
Bull-type seriousness if the subject matter is any indication.
8. Ben Stiller – The Secret Life of Walter Mitty – They
were not ready to nominate Affleck in this category even though his film
dominated all of awards season. What about Stiller? His most Oscar-friendly
movie was… Reality Bites? Or Tropic Thunder? Unless his film really
is as good as it could be, then he will get left off.
9. Lee Daniels – The Butler – He is a previous
nominee, which could help his cause. Weisntein will keep his name and film in
our memories until nomination morning.
10. John Lee Hancock – Saving Mr. Banks – After The Blind Side, voters may want to
recognize him individually. Plus his film has Oscar written all over it. He
could be a dark horse for the prize.
11. Paul Greengrass – Captain Phillips – He has been
nominated once before and all of his films seem to have a signature pace and
look. Clever and intense editing is often mistaken for great direction. Lucky
for Greengrass, he consistently has both.
12. Woody Allen – Blue Jasmine – He is nominated a lot
even when his film is not. I would not be shocked if he somehow sneaks in.
13. Alfonso Cuaron – Gravity – This is our best chance
since the Best Picture expansion of having a Director nominated without his
film. If the film succeeds, it is all going to be because of Cuaron. He
deserves a mention in this category at some point. Why not this year?
BEST PICTURE
The
Predicted Ten (I predict 9 will get nominated)
1. American Hustle (David O. Russell) – This movie has the
trailer, A-list cast, and director to justify the frontrunner status. There are
going to be a bunch of voters who think Silver
Linings should have won last year, so this film is going to have everyone’s
attention.
2. Labor Day (Jason Reitman) – We are still without a trailer.
Reitman’s last film was the underwhelming Young
Adult, but this is his baby. The last one he wrote and directed was Up in the Air, which by some fluke went
winless despite six nominations.
3. The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (Ben Stiller) – I have never
really been as surprised by a trailer as I was by this one. It was sort of on
my radar for an acting nom back in March, but the trailer shot it up to a
potential frontrunner. It could be our generation’s Forrest Gump.
4. Inside Llewyn Davis (Joel Coen, Ethan Coen) – The Coens are
regulars in this category as well as every other one. The more of this film we
see and get word of, the more it seems like a BP lock.
5. Foxcatcher (Bennett Miller) – We still need the trailer, but we
have gotten a few stills from the movie that look incredible. Miller’s previous
two films were nominated here. Look for three straight unless it is a huge
letdown.
6. The Wolf of Wall Street (Martin Scorsese) – Scorsese has had
four of his last five nominated for all of the important categories. The
trailer is hilarious and brilliant. I cannot see this missing out. There is
just too much talent involved.
7. The Butler (Lee Daniels) – This is one of the big Weinstein box
office surprises. It is little overachieving movies like this that wrap up mass
nominations.
8. 12 Years a Slave (Steve McQueen) – McQueen has made two great
films in a row. This appears to be his third and definitely his most awards
friendly movie. As long as it gets a legitimate box office, it should be in.
9. Parkland (Peter Landesman) – The trailer looks like the JFK
version of Bobby, which everyone
seemingly has forgotten about. The Golden Globes loved Bobby, but this looks better, even if the cast are not really Oscar
regulars.
10. Dallas Buyers Club (Jean-Marc Vallee) – The trailer made it out
to be a bit more Citizen Ruth than I
would have expected, but it is McConaughey’s time. He could carry this film
into the spotlight and Best Picture lineup if marketed correctly.
Others
in contention
11. Before Midnight (Richard Linklater) – The early release date
may have killed this movie. We will need to see some precursor love like its
predecessor had for it to make the final group.
12. Saving Mr. Banks (John Lee Hancock) – It is definitely a Disney
movie. It is going to be light, predictable, funny, and beloved by a bunch of
gutless, risk-averse Oscar voters.
13. Captain Phillips (Paul Greengrass) – It has everything that the
Academy should love. It appears to be in for a giant box office. Greengrass
deserves his first venture into this category.
14. Blue Jasmine (Woody Allen) – He has never really been a regular
in this category, but the film might once again be his most commercially
successful film. Plus it has the mentally unstable lead character that voters
love so much.
15. Fruitvale Station (Ryan Coogler) – The buzz on this film has
quieted recently, but Weinstein should reignite the flame in the next couple
months with its video release and campaign.
16. Rush (Ron Howard) – This is one of the under-the-radar films in
the group. It looks great and it has a dynamic young cast, but no one is really
taking it seriously. Peter Morgan and Ron Howard is a killer combo. This could
surprise.
17. August: Osage County (John Wells) – I am still not sold on its
major Oscar merit, but we will have to see how much they love Streep and if the
film is better than Wells’s last film The
Company Men.
18. Gravity (Alfonso Cuaron) – Science-Fiction is not the easiest
sell with the Oscars, especially since it is basically a solo venture for
Bullock. Last one of these was Moon,
which was ridiculously overlooked everywhere. Clooney and Bullock seems like a
can’t-miss, though.
19. The Book Thief (Brian
Percival) – This could be the next Little
Boy, which I hyped up only to not see it ever get released. This actually
has an arrival date and a director who worked on Downton Abbey. It is about World War II. Sounds like a potential
contender to me...
20.
Philomena (Stephen Frears) – It is Oscar-friendly material with
British producers and actors. I could see this rising up in the coming months.
21. Nebraska (Alexander Payne) – It may not perform any better than
The Straight Story or Harry and Tonto, but with more than five
nominees, those could have made the cut too. Payne is recognized often. This
film will show us how much they really love him.
There you have it. Comments? Thoughts?
Overlooked films? Predictions? Let me know below.
