2010's Mid-Decade Report: Oscar-less Best Picture Nominees

One of the more interesting aspects of the first half of this decade is the changing policies around the Oscars and their Best Picture lineups.  In 2008, there was such controversy surrounding the 5 Best Picture nominees that the Academy decided to change its nominating policies.  Instead of the traditional 5 nominees, there would be 10 in order to honor some of the more mainstream movies in the ceremony.  What the Academy quickly realized is not every year has 10 films worthy of being nominated.  (I am still wondering how The Blind Side is called a Best Picture nominee.)  After that failed experiment, they changed the rules again to make it a lineup of 5-10 movies based on how many were deserving that particular year (earning at least 5% of the first place votes).  We have been under these rules since 2011, which has given us years of nine nominees and one year (this last one) of only eight.  Either way, this decade has brought us more Best Picture nominees than we have had since the first few years of the award's existence.

So how successful has the Academy been?  These rule changes were put in place after 2008 to avoid critically-acclaimed blockbusters like WALL-E and The Dark Knight that are truly deserving to be left out of the Best Picture picture.  Has it been successful?  Well, in the 2000's there were 55 films nominated for Best Picture with 11 of them coming home without winning a single Oscar (four of those films coming from the embarrassment that was the 2009 lineup, the first top ten).  So far this decade, there have been 45 films nominated for Best Picture.  Of those, 14 of them did not win a single Oscar, raising the winless rate 11% from the previous decade.  If a film isn't best at anything, does it deserve film's highest honor?  Let's look at these 14 films and see if their resume truly deserves the title "Best Picture Nominee."

Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

(2011)

2 nominations

Picture

Supporting Actor - Max von Sydow

This has got to be one of the strangest Best Picture nominees in some time.  It's only other nomination was a Supporting Actor nod that had no precursors outside of a couple random critic groups.  The film was completely shut out at the Golden Globes which normally likes heartfelt films with starpower like Tom Hanks and Sandra Bullock.  Add to that a film like The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo was left off that year's list while taking home an important win like Best Editing.  It was a quality film that I enjoyed, but it didn't seem to fit the honor.

Nomination Grade: F

The Tree of Life

(2011)

3 nominations

Picture

Director - Terrence Malick

Cinematography

There are artistic films, and then there are Terrence Malick films.  He doesn't make many movies, but this was only his second film nominated for Best Picture.  Every now and then these art films get nominated for the big prize, and its other nominations show how much respect the Academy had for its filmmaking.  However, there is no way this film gets into a five film lineup for Best Picture.  If the purpose of expanding the Best Picture lineup was to allow more mass-appealing films into the Best Picture lineup, why does a Terrence Malick film get one of the expanded spots?  That is about as opposite of "mass-appealing" as possible.

Nomination Grade: D

Philomena

(2013)

4 nominations

Picture

Actress - Judi Dench

Adapted Screenplay

Original Score

Every year, no matter how many films are nominated, there seems to be the stereotypical British film that works its way into the Best Picture lineup for some reason.  In 2013, that film was Philomena.  It had about every nomination one of these British films needs to justify its Best Picture appearance.  It had a major acting nomination, a screenplay nom, and one other random justification nod.  The only thing that would have made its case stronger would have been a Directing nomination.  Looking at the 2013 lineup, it would have been interesting to see if it would have made a five film lineup.  There are other films that were more worthy, but it is the type of film that sneaks in no matter what.  On top of that, it was a great film.  I have no problem with this film being a Best Picture nominee.

Nomination Grade: B-

Beasts of the Southern Wild

(2012)

4 nominations

Picture

Actress - Quvenzhane Wallis

Director - Benh Zeitlin

Adapted Screenplay

Another byproduct of expanding the Best Picture is bringing attention some small independent films that usually wouldn't be recognized as much.  Beasts of the Southern Wild is one of those films.  A film like this sometimes pops up in the screenplay lists.  However, it is rare a small independent film finds its way to screenplay, director, and acting nominations.  Maybe it got this much attention because it did have a chance at Best Picture so people paid more attention to it.  Maybe it really was that good in the eyes of the Academy.  I don't think it was that deserving of the honor, but it is hard to argue much with the resume it put together.

Nomination Grade: C+

Winter's Bone

(2010)

4 nominations

Picture

Actress - Jennifer Lawrence

Supporting Actor - John Hawkes

Adapted Screenplay

This film falls in a similar category as Beasts of the Southern Wild.  It deserved awards attention, but probably didn't deserve a Best Picture nomination.  As the one year that was forced to have 10 nominees this decade, I have to think Winter's Bone was the tenth film on the list.  If it hadn't been for a very surprising nomination for John Hawkes, it would not have had much of a resume to warrant Best Picture consideration.  However, many people forget that this was the film that announced the arrival of Jennifer Lawrence.  If it weren't for Winter's Bone, I don't know if she would be as much of a household name now.

Nomination Grade: C-

The Kids Are All Right

(2010)

4 nominations

Picture

Actress - Annette Bening

Supporting Actor - Mark Ruffalo

Original Screenplay

This is an actor's film.  Many times in films like this, there are not many nominations outside the major categories.  This is the case with this film as it only garnered two acting nominations and a screenplay nomination.  Julianne Moore could have easily been nominated as well, but wasn't.  Usually you would think a film like this deserves its Best Picture nomination, but it reminds me a little of a film like Doubt which earned four acting nominations and a screenplay nomination, but was left off the Best Picture top five of 2008.  However, Doubt deserved consideration for one of those spots just as much as fan favorites WALL-E and The Dark Knight did.  I have no problem seeing this film in the Best Picture category.

Nomination Grade: B

The Wolf of Wall Street

(2013)

5 nominations

Picture

Actor - Leonardo DiCaprio

Supporting Actor - Jonah Hill

Director - Martin Scorsese

Adapted Screenplay

Some filmmakers deserve the recognition of Best Picture for pretty much every film they put out.  This was Martin Scorsese's 8th film to be nominated for Best Picture, and it seems to have a very similar pedigree as some of his earlier films.  With that said, it would not have been a huge shock to see Leo DiCaprio walk away with Best Actor this time around (other than the fact that the Academy seems physically unable to give Leo his day in the sun).  It may only have five nominations, but they are all the important ones.  This was definitely a lock for Best Picture that year.

Nomination Grade: A-

Captain Phillips

(2013)

6 nominations

Picture

Supporting Actor - Barkhad Abdi

Adapted Screenplay

Sound Mixing

Editing

Sound Editing

It is a shame this film didn't have a 7th nomination as Tom Hanks was robbed in the Best Actor category.  With that said, looking back on it, this was a somewhat strange nomination.  It only had one acting nomination (for a film debut no less).  It had a screenplay nomination, but no directing recognition hurts it.  It had several tech noms, but Paul Greengrass always gets those noms whether his movie gets major recognition or not (see United 93 and The Bourne Ultimatum).  In a year with five nominees, this may have been left off the list.  However, as a fan of this film, I am happy I can call it a nominee.

Nomination Grade: B

Nebraska

(2013)

6 nominations

Picture

Actor - Bruce Dern

Supporting Actress - June Squibb

Director - Alexander Payne

Original Screenplay

Cinematography

This has everything you would expect to see out of a Best Picture nominee.  It has some solid acting nominations (with Bruce Dern in talks of winning to the very end), a previous winner nominated for director, the screenplay is nominated, and it got a solid tech nomination as well.  This film deserves its moniker.  It was just one of the unlucky films that couldn't beat anybody out.

Nomination Grade: A

War Horse

(2011)

6 nominations

Picture

Cinematography

Art Direction

Sound

Sound Editing

Original Score

There is a big difference between War Horse and Nebraska even though they had the same number of nominations.  While Nebraska had all the important nominations like acting, director, and screenplay, War Horse was only able to be recognized for its tech performances.  The only reason this was even considered a Best Picture contender is the fact that it was directed by Steven Spielberg.  In a year with five nominees, this would be the equivalent of films like King Kong or Memoirs of a Geisha, however those films actually won Oscars while not being nominated.  This probably didn't belong here.

Nomination Grade: C

Moneyball

(2011)

6 nominations

Picture

Actor - Brad Pitt

Supporting Actor - Jonah Hill

Adapted Screenplay

Sound

Editing

If my brother has convinced me of anything in regards to the Oscars, it is that under most circumstances, a nomination for Best Editing is an indication of a movie loved by the Academy.  Add that to two acting nominations, a screenplay nomination, and a film fronted by a previous directing nominee, and you have quite a strong resume for Best Picture.  This film definitely deserves its title, even if it is about the Oakland A's...

Nomination Grade: A-

127 Hours

(2010)

6 nominations

Picture

Actor - James Franco

Adapted Screenplay

Editing

Original Song

Original Score

I can't think of this film's run at the Oscars without thinking of the bizarre behavior of James Franco while hosting the Oscars that year.  For that performance alone, I wish this film hadn't gotten so much recognition.  As it is, as much as I love this movie, it didn't really earn its way to being a Best Picture nominee.  It did have some key nominations like actor, screenplay, and editing, and it also was the follow-up film for a recent winner, but its other two nominations were for music.  Those are categories where many films get their one and only nominations.  As it was, they were more honoring another recent winner in A.R. Rahman than honoring the film.  This fits in a similar category as Cast Away.  Franco deserved his nomination (despite the Oscars), and the film deserved some recognition, but not Hollywood's highest honor.

Nomination Grade: C

American Hustle

(2013)

10 nominations

Picture

Actor - Christian Bale

Actress - Amy Adams

Supporting Actor - Bradley Cooper

Supporting Actress - Jennifer Lawrence

Director - David O. Russell

Original Screenplay

Production Design

Costume Design

Editing

Of all the films on this list, American Hustle deserves to be here.  Its 10 nominations are tied for second most of all time for a film to get shut out.  It achieved a true rarity by getting nominated in every major category (Picture, Director, Screenplay, and all 4 acting categories).  The ironic thing is it was the second year in a row David O. Russell pulled off this feat.  It is also amazing how close this movie was to not being on this list.  Jennifer Lawrence was an Oscar favorite through much of the awards season, and it would not have been a surprise if the film walked away with the Best Picture honor.  Instead, it walked away with nothing, but it definitely deserves to be called a Best Picture nominee.

Nomination Grade: A+

True Grit

(2010)

10 nominations

Picture

Actor - Jeff Bridges

Supporting Actress - Hailee Steinfeld

Director - The Coen Brothers

Adapted Screenplay

Cinematography

Art Direction

Costume Design

Sound

Sound Editing

This is one of the films American Hustle is tied with.  The Coens are almost guaranteed to get some serious recognition whenever they put out a movie, even if it is a remake of a beloved classic John Wayne western.  Although this one wasn't as deserving as American Hustle (no editing nom, not as many acting noms), it still belongs in the Best Picture discussion.  You have the recent winner getting recognized again in Jeff Bridges, the directors of a recent Best Picture winner getting honored again for producing, directing, and writing, and you have the fact that the Academy loves westerns.  Everything about this film screams award worthy, except for the fact that it didn't win any.

Nomination Grade: A

After looking at all these films, let's ask the question again.  Has it worked?  I think they have succeeded in drawing the public's attention to more quality films that the masses otherwise would not have heard of.  There have been very few instances where the big blockbusters have garnered extra recognition by being nominated.  I think this is partially because very few of the big blockbusters this decade have been high quality enough to be recognized in this way.  I think the recent rules for Best Picture are much better for honoring the movies that deserve it.  If you noticed, there were no 2014 films on this list as all 2014 Best Picture nominees walked away with at least one Oscar.  Rumors are beginning to swirl that the Academy is considering changing their rules for Best Picture once again.  Although I did like the group of five every year, I also appreciate the need to expand with the ever-expanding industry.  The current rules ensure no more films like The Blind Side end up as an Best Picture nominee (although Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close made it under the current rules).  I would like to see the rules stay the same.  However, it will be interesting to see what we talk about when it comes to Best Picture nominees at the end of this decade.  Either way, these 14 films are now immortalized in exclusive company whether they deserve it or not.

Year in Review: Terry's Top 10 Films of 2013

For yet another year, it takes me halfway through the following year to publish my top 10 list of the year before.  I blame my busy schedule.  I could put out my list a little earlier, but I don't feel right about settling on a top 10 list without at least seeing all the Best Picture nominees.  Sometimes I get grief for fixating a little too much on the Best Picture nominees, especially last year when eight of the nine nominees found their way into my top ten.  (That is not the case this year.)  There are still many top films from 2013 I haven't seen (viewed only 70% of Todd's Top 10, 40% of Zach's Top 10), but if I wait to see them all you will never see my list.

Last year was a fairly strong year in film with many great films coming from many different genres.  In my top 10 alone (which only contains five Best Picture nominees this year, thank you very much), there are heart-warming inspirational stories, fun family films, dark psychological thrillers, intense sci-fi visual effects masterpieces, and futuristic ground-breaking original stories.  However, what ruled this year for me was the "based on a true story" genre.  Hollywood seemed to really take the perspective of Jack's future father-in-law to heart in that there are so many great non-fiction stories out there, why waste your time with fiction.  Half of the films on my top ten list (and one honorable mention) are based on true stories.  Whether it be a story focused on a high-profile public icon or an average guy faced with an impossible situation, Hollywood truly found some powerful stories and the real life people that made them possible.

Films seen: 46
"Thumbs Up" Percentage: 67%
Best Actor: Oscar Isaac - Inside Llewyn Davis
Best Actress: Emma Thompson - Saving Mr. Banks
Supporting Actor: Barkhad Abdi - Captain Phillips
Supporting Actress: June Squibb - Nebraska
Breakout Performances: Michael B. Jordan - Fruitvale Station, Lupita Nyong'o - 12 Years a Slave
Most Overrated: American Hustle
Most Underrated: Side Effects
Biggest Surprise: The World's End
Biggest Disappointment: The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
Bottom Five: Hansel & Gretel: Witch Hunters, About 111 Girls, The Wolverine, Oz the Great and Powerful, Now You See Me

Top 10 List

Honorable Mention: Rush, Inside Llewyn Davis, Nebraska

10.  Before Midnight (dir. by Richard Linklater)

I am a recent fan of this series, but I can't help but be fascinated by the story of Jesse and Celine, portrayed by Ethan Hawke and Julie Delpy.  We get a window into their relationship together every 9 years with this being the third installment.  I will say it was the weakest of the three "Before" films so far as it, for the first time, I felt produced some less than genuine, authentic moments.  However, this is being very picky as we should be allowed to be when it comes to such a beautiful and original franchise as this.  Once again the film is driven by wonderfully rich dialogue that truly allows us to see into these characters souls and, in this one especially, see how they have changed since they first met 18 years ago.  I hope we get the fourth installment in 2022.

9.  Her (dir. by Spike Jonze)

Every now and then a film comes along that is so original and groundbreaking in its premise that it's just fun to experience it.  Ever rarer are the times when these groundbreaking stories are so well executed that they become one of the best films of that year.  It's the difference between Synecdoche, New York and Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind.  Her belongs in that second category.  Looking ahead to, I'm sure, the not-too-distant future, it tells the story of a man falling in love with his computer that is designed to think and have a full range of emotions.  Joaquin Phoenix gives a brilliant performance as he appears to be talking to himself the majority of the time, but Scarlett Johansson makes the film work as she brings Samantha to life in a way that you forget you are watching a man interact with a computer.  It simply turns into one of the most unique love stories you will ever see.

8.  Philomena (dir. by Stephen Frears)

In the first of the true stories to come across my list, we have the tale of a sweet, endearing old Irish lady and a smug, sarcastic, self-righteous British reporter (basically, the perfect stereotype of a British reporter).  Martin Sixsmith (News at 10) has decided to write a human interest story about Philomena Lee who is looking for her son that was taken from her as a toddler.  Going into this movie, I thought I had a grasp on what it was going to be.  It really was so much more than I thought.  It really surprised me in its depth and emotion.  Judi Dench once again shows why she is one of the most decorated actresses of the last 20 years, but the real revelation was Steve Coogan.  Up until now, when I thought of Steve Coogan, I thought of things like Tropic Thunder and singing "Rock Me, Sexy Jesus" in Hamlet 2.  In this film, he reinvents himself and shows what he is truly capable of, both in his acting and screenwriting.  It is one of those films you never get tired of seeing.

7.  Fruitvale Station (dir. by Ryan Coogler)

With the second true story of the top ten comes one of the independent darlings of the year.  This film tells of the last 24 hours in the life of Oscar Grant, a young Oakland man wrongfully gunned down by law enforcement officers.  Of all the characters created in 2013, Oscar might be the most well-rounded and complete of them all.  Michael B. Jordan brilliantly brings to life the spirit of Oscar, a young troubled ma trying to do what is right but often falling short.  It is a tragic story that breaks your heart knowing the eventual outcome and seeing the life that wasn't able to play its course.  Soon after it starts, you forget you are watching a drama with actors and start to think of it as a documentary with archival footage, which is the best a film like this can hope for.

6.  Saving Mr. Banks (dir. by John Lee Hancock)

In what became possibly the best feel-good movie of the year, we have the third true story of the top ten.  This tells the story of Walt Disney's attempts to woo author P.L. Travers to let him make her beloved Mary Poppins into a movie.  As we watch the struggle and debate progress, we also see why Travers holds this story so tightly as we learn about her childhood and the story of her father.  Emma Thompson is spot-on perfect as the tight-lipped, highly skeptical Travers, and Tom Hanks brings Walt Disney back to life in a way few others could.  This is one of those films that makes you laugh, makes you cry, and finds you finishing the movie with a smile on your face and the warm and fuzzies in your heart.  It's another film that I can't get enough of.

5.  Frozen (dir. by Chris Buck & Jennifer Lee)

This is not a true story (however it would be cool if Olaf were real).  Following the film about Walt Disney, we have a Disney animated film.  More times than not recently, an animated film has been making it into my top ten.  Usually it is the Pixar installment of the year, but Monsters University didn't quite reach the heights of the original.  Instead we have a return to old-school Disney with this movie musical that is the best Disney has put out since the days of Beauty and the Beast and The Lion King.  Frozen is different though.  It has the feel of a classic Disney film with the princesses and the beautiful original music, but as the movie goes on you realize it is less about the princesses finding their Prince Charming and more about them finding each other.  It has all the magic that you expect out of one of Disney's best efforts and songs that you can't help but hum for days (or months) after.  It is a film that is impossible to not like and easy to love.

4.  Side Effects (dir. by Stephen Soderbergh)

With one of the biggest surprises of the year comes this very underrated film.  I'm always a sucker for a good psychological thriller; one that loops a story around to the point that you are constantly questioning what is real and what isn't until the final twist at the end that makes sense (or doesn't) of the last two hours.  The best in this category 2013 had to offer was Side Effects, the story of a young woman who is dealing with some life-altering side effects to her psychiatric medication.  As if The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo didn't prove enough just how talented and diverse of an actor Rooney Mara is, she proves it once again with this brilliant performance.  It's one of those films that forces you to say at the end, "Stop!  Rewind that!" because you want to experience the whole film again knowing how it all ends up just so you can make sense of it all.  Also, when a film is made with a good Jude Law performance, well that is an accomplishment in itself.

3.  Captain Phillips (dir. by Paul Greengrass)

An average ordinary day, all of a sudden, becomes a life-threatening ordeal.  This is the story of Captain Phillips, as Tom Hanks portrays the titular character who has his freighter ship boarded by Somali pirates.  This true story leaves you on the edge of your seat from start to finish as Paul Greengrass once again shows that he is the master of this type of film.  Much like he did in United 93, Greengrass finds unrecognizable young actors to portray his villains.  This time around, the leader of the group is played by Barkhad Abdi, who gives a truly landmark performance in his first acting role.  Much like how I described Fruitvale Station, this film forces you to forget you are watching a dramatization.  It becomes real.  Tom Hanks gives one of his best performances as he subtly explores the full range of emotions this experience takes his character through.  Between Hanks, Abdi, and the dramatic story portrayed, it is a film you won't soon forget.

2.  Gravity (dir. by Alfonso Cuaron)

Not knowing what I was getting myself into, I went to the theatre one day to experience a double feature of Captain Phillips and Gravity.  I was so emotionally exhausted the rest of the day that I couldn't useless for anything else.  I love movies about space (Apollo 13 is my favorite movie of all time) which made this film even more anticipated than it already should have been.  In what became the most intense 91 minutes of the year, I sat on the edge of my seat with my jaw dropped as I watched George Clooney and Sandra Bullock find to stay alive after an unforeseen catastrophe strikes their spaceship.  The story is great, the performances are top notch, but the real story here is the amazing achievement of Cuaron's directing.  The visuals are beautiful and haunting at the same time.  It is a movie worth watching just to look at, but the story  and struggle of the main characters make it truly special.  Oh yeah, and it's in space!  I thought for sure this would be my top movie of the year.

1.  12 Years a Slave (dir. by Steve McQueen)

For the third year in a row, my top film of the year was the winner of the Best Picture Oscar.  It's good to know the Academy has been getting it right.  This is the true story of Solomon Northup, a 19th century Black man that is kidnapped from his home in the north and enslaved for 12 years.  It's a star-studded affair along the lines of Saving Private Ryan where every supporting character is played by a recognizable face.  Like I said, it was going to take something special for Gravity to not be my top movie of 2013, and this was that good.  The moving and inspiring story portrayed is one of the most powerful stories put to film in recent years.  Every performance is spot on, from Chiwetel Ejiofor's Solomon to slavemasters Benedict Cumberbatch and Michael Fassbender to fellow slave Lupita Nyong'o, and help bring to life the incredible vision of director Steve McQueen.  This is a movie that will be remembered for years to come as a film that brought an era to life much like Schindler's List brought the Holocaust to life.  This movie will go down as a landmark achievement as one of the greatest and most important movies of our generation.

So there's my top 10 list.  Hopefully, my top 10 list of 2014 can come out before we are too far into 2015...

2014 Golden Globes Preview and Predictions

The Hollywood Foreign Press Association loves star power, foreign actors, new TV shows, and musicals. Check out how that is reflected in my yearly Golden Globe predictions. Nominations are announced December 12^th, and the ceremony is on January 12^th. I am nowhere near as good at this as the Oscars, which is why I sort of mock the awards with my “HFPA Dream Lineup” prediction every year, but it makes for fun conversation and something to pay attention to in preparation for the real awards show.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SERIES, MINISERIES, OR TV MOVIE

1. Anna Gunn – Breaking Bad

2. Kathy Bates – American Horror Story: Coven

3. Sofia Vergara – Modern Family

4. Kate Mara – House of Cards
5. Holly Hunter – Top of the Lake

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES, MINISERIES, OR TV MOVIE

1. Jon Voight – Ray Donovan

 

2. Mandy Patinkin – Homeland

3. Peter Dinklage – Game of Thrones

4. Aaron Paul – Breaking Bad

5. Corey Stoll – House of Cards

BEST ACTRESS IN A MINISERIES OR TV MOVIE

1. Elisabeth Moss – Top of the Lake

 

2. Jessica Lange – American Horror Story: Coven

3. Helen Mirren – Phil Spector

4. Laura Linney – The Big C Hereafter
5. Carrie Underwood – The Sound of Music

BEST ACTOR IN A MINISERIES OR TV MOVIE

1. Michael Douglas – Behind the Candelabra

2. Al Pacino – Phil Spector

3. Matt Damon – Behind the Candelabra

4. Larry David – Clear History
5. Christopher Plummer – Muhammad Ali’s Greatest Fight

BEST MINISERIES OR TELEVISION MOVIE

1. Behind the Candelabra

2. Phil Spector

3. American Horror Story: Coven

4. Top of the Lake
5. The Bible

BEST ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SERIES – COMEDY/MUSICAL

1. Lena Dunham – Girls

2. Julia Louis-Dreyfus – Veep

3. Amy Poehler – Parks and Recreation

4. Zooey Deschanel – New Girl
5. Mindy Kaling – The Mindy Project

BEST ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES – COMEDY/MUSICAL

1. Michael J. Fox – The Michael J. Fox Show

2. Jim Parsons – The Big Bang Theory

3. Robin Williams – The Crazy Ones

4. Andy Samberg – Brooklyn Nine-Nine
5. Jason Bateman – Arrested Development

BEST TELEVISION SERIES – COMEDY/MUSICAL

1. Girls

 

2. Modern Family

3. The Michael J. Fox Show

4. Arrested Development
5. The Big Bang Theory

BEST ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA

1. Claire Danes – Homeland

2. Kerry Washington – Scandal

3. Vera Farmiga – Bates Motel

4. Robin Wright – House of Cards
5. Taylor Schilling – Orange is the New Black

BEST ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA

1. Kevin Spacey – House of Cards

2. Bryan Cranston – Breaking Bad

3. Jeff Daniels – The Newsroom

4. Damian Lewis – Homeland
5. Liev Schreiber – Ray Donovan

BEST TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA

1. House of Cards

 

2. Breaking Bad

3. Homeland

4. Game of Thrones
5. The Newsroom

BEST ANIMATED FILM

1. Frozen

 

2. The Wind Rises

3. Monsters University

4. Despicable Me 2
5. Epic

Explanation: Animation at the Golden Globes is a bit different than the Oscars. They like the blockbusters, so the smaller or foreign animated films do not stand as much of a chance.

BEST FOREIGN FILM

1. The Hunt

 

2. Blue Is the Warmest Color

3. The Grandmaster

4. The Past
5. Wadjda

Explanation: Normally, if there is an American movie in another language, such as Letters from Iwo Jima or In the Land of Milk and Honey then those films will at least be nominated. Here, I went with the most known and widely released of the foreign films of 2013.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. “So You Know What It’s Like” – Short Term 12

 

2. “Young and Beautiful” – The Great Gatsby

3. “Let It Go” – Frozen

4. “Go Where the Love Is” – The Way, Way Back
5. “Best Song Ever” – The Is Us

Explanation: This is where the Golden Globes can get pretty shameless with their star invites. Here, they would invite the likes of Demi Lovato and One Direction. Sounds like a win for the HFPA.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Steven Price – Gravity

 

2. Arcade Fire – Her

3. Thomas Newman – Saving Mr. Banks

4. Hans Zimmer – 12 Years a Slave
5. Steve Jablonsky – Lone Survivor

Explanation: The original scores at the Golden Globes are certainly more random than the other awards. They always nominate a film that gets no other recognition. That film could be Lone Survivor. They will also jump at the opportunity to invite Grammy-winning band Arcade Fire to the mix.

BEST SCREENPLAY – MOTION PICTURE

1. Woody Allen – Blue Jasmine­

2. John Ridley – 12 Years a Slave

3. Eric Singer – American Hustle

4. Terence Winter – The Wolf of Wall Street
5. Richard Linklater, Ethan Hawke, July Delpy – Before Midnight

Explanation: I hate predicting this category, but I love the idea of it. A screenplay is a screenplay. I don’t care if it is an original thought, an expansion of a short film, based on a play, or whatever. The HFPA loves Woody Allen. They also love Boardwalk Empire, so this will give them a chance at inviting Terence Winter during a weaker period in his show. The others seem like the preordained nominees and near-locks. I can see the Coens sneaking in there too.

BEST DIRECTOR – MOTION PICTURE

1. Martin Scorsese – The Wolf of Wall Street

 

2. Alfonso Cuaron – Gravity

3. Steve McQueen – 12 Years a Slave

4. David O. Russell – American Hustle
5. Woody Allen – Blue Jasmine

Explanation: Scorsese has won four Golden Globes, the last being for Hugo a couple years ago. He could add another trophy to his collection. Woody Allen films, especially his dramas, are beloved by the HFPA. The others are the obvious contenders. This seems like a category that John Wells could show up in for August: Osage County, since they really like the talkative movies, especially based on plays. Keep an eye on him. The Globes is where that film could shine.

The HFPA Dream Lineup:

Nat Faxon, Jim Rash – The Way, Way Back

Ron Howard – Rush

Peter Jackson – The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

Martin Scorsese – The Wolf of Wall Street

Ben Stiller – The Secret Life of Walter Mitty

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE

1. Oprah Winfrey – Lee Daniels’ The Butler

2. Julia Roberts – August: Osage County

3. Jennifer Lawrence – American Hustle

4. Lupita Nyongo – 12 Years a Slave
5. Sally Hawkins – Blue Jasmine

Explanation: This seems like a fairly easy category to predict. Oprah would bring an audience bigger than anyone could imagine. Roberts was even nominated for doing nothing in Charlie Wilson’s War. Jennifer Lawrence…clearly. The other two are just great roles that will get in. Hawkins seems like a future regular at the Globes.

The HFPA Dream Lineup:

Scarlett Johansson – Don Jon or Her

Jennifer Lawrence – American Hustle

Reese Witherspoon – Mud

Julia Roberts – August: Osage County

Oprah Winfrey – Lee Daniels’ The Butler

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE

1. James Gandolfini – Enough Said

 

2. Tom Hanks – Saving Mr. Banks

3. Jonah Hill – The Wolf of Wall Street

4. Michael Fassbender – 12 Years a Slave
5. Harrison Ford – 42

Explanation: Harrison Ford would be the Michael Douglas in Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps-type nomination, reigniting a dormant career. Gandolfini’s death will only heighten his chances to get one last award from the organization that worshipped him and his show The Sopranos. Hanks is always here. I love this category. Watch out for comedy supporting guys. The Globes nominate the best performances, regardless of whether they make them cry or not.

The HFPA Dream Lineup:

George Clooney – Gravity

Bradley Cooper – American Hustle
James Franco – Spring Breakers

Mel Gibson – Machete Kills

Tom Hanks – Saving Mr. Banks

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE – COMEDY/MUSICAL

1. Meryl Streep – August: Osage County

 

2. Sandra Bullock – The Heat

3. Emma Watson – The Bling Ring

4. Melissa McCarthy – The Heat
5. Greta Gerwig – Frances Ha

Explanation: Meryl Streep made a movie, so she is in. The Heat seems like the typical trash that the Globes will flip over. Watson and Gerwig are the ones that actually deserve the votes. There are quite a few contenders for this category. This could be one of the random categories that get six nominees.

The HFPA Dream Lineup:

Jennifer Aniston – We’re the Millers

Sandra Bullock – The Heat

Julia Louise-Dreyfus – Enough Said

Helen Mirren – Red 2

Meryl Streep – August: Osage County

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE – COMEDY/MUSICAL

1. Ben Stiller – The Secret Life of Walter Mitty

 

2. Leonardo DiCaprio – The Wolf of Wall Street

3. Oscar Isaac – Inside Llewyn Davis

4. Joseph Gordon-Levitt – Don Jon
5. Joaquin Phoenix – Her

Explanation: These all seem like locks, unless there is some category change like Hanks for Saving Mr. Banks or if The Wolf of Wall Street goes drama. It is still strange to think that it has been campaigning as a comedy. Perhaps someone like Bruce Dern could sneak in, but Nebraska does not seem like a GG-type movie.

The HFPA Dream Lineup:

Johnny Depp – The Lone Ranger

Robert De Niro – Last Vegas

Leonardo DiCaprio – The Wolf of Wall Street

Michael Douglas – Last Vegas

James Franco – Oz the Great and Powerful

BEST MOTION PICTURE – COMEDY/MUSICAL

1. Inside Llewyn Davis

 

2. The Secret Life of Walter Mitty

3. The Wolf of Wall Street

4. Her
5. Black Nativity

Explanation: The Globes love their musicals, no matter if they are good or not. Here, they can express that love by nominating a couple. Her is a bit of a strange inclusion here, but there is a bit of randomness at the Globes sometimes. Inside Llewyn Davis seems like a clear frontrunner, but if Walter Mitty or Wall Street kill the box office, look for one of them to take the trophy.

The HFPA Dream Lineup: The Heat

Last Vegas

Red 2

This Is the End

The Wolf of Wall Street

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA

1. Sandra Bullock – Gravity

 

2. Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine

3. Emma Thompson – Saving Mr. Banks

4. Amy Adams – American Hustle
5. Judi Dench – Philomena

Explanation: Bullock won for her last nomination, which was also a double nom, and Gravity’s box office seems like all she will need to get another. Blanchett is her biggest threat. The other three are just normal nominees that will not take home the trophy. I am still not even sure if Adams is leading or not. I can see Kate Winslet maybe making it into the lineup, or one of the foreign actresses from Blue is the Warmest Color. Maybe Berenice Bejo has a shot. I am confident in these five, though.

The HFPA Dream Lineup:

Sandra Bullock – Gravity

Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine

Nicole Kidman – Stoker

Jennifer Lawrence – The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

Kate Winslet – Labor Day

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA

1. Matthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyers Club

 

2. Chiwetel Ejiofor – 12 Years a Slave

3. Robert Redford – All Is Lost

4. Tom Hanks – Captain Phillips
5. Hugh Jackman – Prisoners

Explanation: This is going to be the most interesting nomination announcement of the group. It seems like McConaughey would be a lock, but I thought the same thing about him in Magic Mike. Ejiofor will get nominated. The rest are less certain. How much did they like Captain Phillips? Greengrass has not had a great track record with the Globes. I like the randomness of Jackman getting in. I am just not sure here. There is so much star power.

The HFPA Dream Lineup:

Christian Bale – American Hustle

Tom Cruise – Oblivion

Leonardo DiCaprio – The Great Gatsby

Ryan Gosling – The Place Beyond the Pines

Tom Hanks – Captain Phillips

Chris Hemsworth – Rush

BEST MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA

1. 12 Years a Slave

 

2. American Hustle

3. Lee Daniels’ The Butler

4. Gravity
5. Blue Jasmine

Explanation: The Butler seems like the weird one in the group, but Weinstein got the movie to blow up the box office, so its chances are great to secure a nom. Blue Jasmine is the stuff the HFPA dreams of. It could perform here as well as Allen’s Match Point. The rest of these are likely good box office films that are going to get mentioned no matter which show it is. They will be the frontrunners at the beginning of awards season.

The HFPA Dream Lineup: 

Gravity

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

Lee Daniels’ The Butler

Saving Mr. Banks

There they are. What do you like most about the Globes? Any TV stuff I overlooked? What are your predictions for this year’s awards? Let me know below.