It is football in January, which can
only mean three things: Jesus, girls, and Marcus Mariota. January also means Oscar nominations, and if 2014 NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers and his calf injury doesn't get nominated this year, it will be the snub of the century. But for those of us who cannot wait until
January 12 at 8:30pm EST, there does happen to be an interesting slate of NFL
games this weekend which can pass the time without too much anxiety. So in honor of the greatest football moment this side of the butt fumble, let’s break
down this weekend’s Wild Card matchups -- all featuring teams that would probably lose to the Ducks, in my completely unbiased opinion:
Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers
(-6)
Saturday, January 3, 4:35pm EST, ESPN.
Take your pick for the more
improbable storyline: On one side, you have a team that finished 2-4 down the
stretch, hasn’t scored over 18 points since November 9, was outgained by 800
yards on the season, and is led by their fourth-string QB and second-string RB. On the other side, you have the second team
in NFL history to make the playoffs with a losing record (a team that went 63
days without winning a game), a QB still recovering from a bizarre car crash,
and a franchise that hasn’t won a home playoff game in 11 years.
Carolina actually had a good season
– if you conveniently omit October and November from the equation. Those two months aside, the Panthers went 6-2
and in those six wins allowed a paltry average of 10.1 points. And say what you will about the pathetic NFC
South, the Panthers actually played formidably against quality opponents. They beat Detroit by 17, tied Cincinnati, and
gave up the game-winning touchdown to the Seahawks with under a minute remaining. In their current four-game winning streak,
the running game has come alive, with Jonathan Stewart averaging just over 400
yards per game. Kelvin Benjamin and Greg
Olsen both gained over 1,000 receiving yards on a team that didn’t particularly
like to pass, and they can both rumble over even the best defenders. And while it would be hard to mistake the
2014 Panthers defense for their excellent 2013 unit, Carolina held half of its
opponents to under 19 points and only allowed only three 300-yard passers all
season. I somehow doubt that number will
reach four after Saturday.
The case for Arizona is that Bruce
Arians is a brilliant coach. And that’s
about it. Ryan Lindley did look
noticeably better against a depleted 49ers secondary last week, but the
Cardinals still only scored 17 points and Lindley had three picks. If that’s the best your quarterback can play,
are you really telling me there is no better option? But the problem isn’t only at QB; the
Cardinals were only 4-4 on the road this year with their one impressive victory
coming against a Tony Romo-less Cowboys.
Even with Andre Ellington playing 12 games, Arizona had the second-worst
rushing offense in football and gave up the fourth-most passing yards. I imagine it must be tough for Cardinals
players to keep composure and focus in the midst of such a collapse; on
November 30, when Arizona was 9-3, could they ever have imagined traveling on
the road to play 3-8-1 Carolina?
So the real question is how did
Arizona ever make the playoffs in the first place? They were 6-0 under Carson Palmer, 5-3 under
Drew Stanton, and 0-2 under Lindley (which brings his career NFL record to
1-7). With Stanton ruled out for
Saturday’s game, there seems little hope Arizona can muster much of anything. But you know what? This isn’t the first time people have said
this about the Cardinals. Remember the
1998 “Cardiac Cards” team with Jake Plummer that won all their games in the
last few seconds and snuck into the playoffs?
No one thought they’d do anything, and lo and behold, they stunned
Troy Aikman and Emmitt Smith in Big D.
Remember the 2008 Cardinals squad which people claimed was the worst team ever to make the playoffs? We
all know what happened after that. So here we are yet again, with
a well-coached Cardinals team that did win 11 games and is a 6-point underdog
to a team that won four fewer games and a super-hyped QB who tellingly has yet
to win a playoff game.
So that’s my best case for the
Cardinals – that as a franchise, they’re used to being significant
underdogs. Hell, I still remember
thinking that the ’08 team didn’t have a chance against Matt Ryan as a
rookie. I was wrong, and so was the rest
of the country. So keep belittling them
if you want to. But I don’t think
anyone’s going to be wrong about this one.
Prediction: Carolina 31, Arizona 10.
Playoff Doppelganger: 2012 NFC Wild
Card, Green Bay 24, Minnesota 10. This
was the season where child abuser contrite and honorable Adrian Peterson
ran for 2,000 yards and the Vikings snuck in the playoffs with Mr. Samantha Ponder at QB. Then the Vikings did the
most Vikings-like thing imaginable and put in converted WR Joe Webb at starting
quarterback against the Packers at Lambeau Field. Because that was such a great
idea. Webb finished 11/30 for 180 yards
and the Vikings lost by two scores in a game more boring than a Leslie Frazier
press conference. The only thing I
really remember about this game is that NBC inexplicably made this their prime
time game of Wild Card weekend. If we’re
living in a world where no one at NBC was fired for that inexcusable move and Ryan Lindley is the starting
quarterback of a playoff team, then there really is no hope for humanity.
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
(- 3)
Saturday, January 3, 8:15pm EST, NBC.
The obvious candidate for NBC’s
prime time game – one of the best modern rivalries in sports, three combined
titles in the last ten years, and the serious potential for brawls and
punches polite jostling and great family-friendly entertainment. Inexplicably, the two previous 2014 games
where these two teams squared off were outright disappointments – a 20-point
Ravens victory in Baltimore on Week 2, and a 20-point Steelers victory in
Pittsburgh on Week 9. These games used
to always be close and contentious;
The “eye test” would certainly seem
to favor the Steelers here. They’ve had
a tremendous December going 4-0, with Roethlisberger throwing a lone pick in
137 pass attempts and Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown turning into 2014’s own
Marshall Faulk and Torry Holt. They have
some impressive wins on their resume too (besides the Baltimore win):
Indianapolis, Carolina, Cincinnati (twice), Kansas City, and Houston. But when you look deeper, you see some
inexplicable losses (Tampa Bay and New Orleans at home, along with the Jets and
Browns) and a defense that gave up 4,243 passing yards and 30 TDs. The Steelers strength is unquestionably their
offense, and they are 9-1 when scoring 27 points or more. But that also means they are 2-4 in games
scoring 26 points or less, and with Bell status doubtful for Saturday, suddenly
27 points may seem like a tall order, even at home.
For a team historically considered
so similar to the Steelers (great defense, strong running game, big boring QB),
it’s a little remarkable how different the 2014 Ravens’ problems are from the
Steelers. Unlike Pittsburgh, Baltimore
has been riddled with injuries all season, not just this past week. Their offense has been horribly shaky down
the stretch. If you take away their 4th
quarter collapse against the Chargers (a game that, with under three minutes
remaining, Baltimore had a 99.7 percent chance of winning), here’s how the Ravens offense has fared down
the stretch in what should have been a pretty easy December: 28 points against
Miami, 20 points against Jacksonville, 13 points against Houston, and 20 points
against Cleveland. Justin Forsett was a
nice comeback story for most of the season, but looked downright ordinary in
December and has only one touchdown since Thanksgiving. But the defense has
played tough (or is it that opposing offenses have been weak?) and the Ravens
are one of three teams in the NFL to be in the top ten in scoring offense and
defense (the Patriots and the Seahawks are the other two). Baltimore is 8-0 in games allowing under 17
points.
I tend to think both of these teams are
slightly overrated, due in large part to playing the NFC South and AFC South
divisions and having the cache of winning recent Super Bowls. I don’t see the winner of this game coming
away from Foxborough or Denver victorious.
So in light of Baltimore’s offensive woes and Pittsburgh’s erratic play
as well as the uncertain status of Bell, this game is pretty evenly
matched. But I’m picking the Ravens in
this game, and here are a few reasons why: Baltimore ranked 2nd in
the NFL in sacks (49), while Pittsburgh ranked 26th (33); even with
Bell in the lineup, Pittsburgh was the definition of a mediocre running team,
ranking 16th, while Baltimore was a top-four defense against the
run. And while the Ravens have looked
vulnerable against the deep pass, I’d still take Lardarius Webb, Darian Stewart
and Matt Elam over Brice McCain, Mike Mitchell, and Troy Polamalu. Or maybe the real point is, neither unit is
exceptional.
The real reason I like Baltimore?
(SPOILER ALERT) I like all the home teams this weekend. As everyone knows, one of the cardinal rules
of NFL playoff gambling is that at least one road team wins in the Wild Card
and Divisional Rounds. The Ravens are
experienced, know how to win in Pittsburgh, and certainly look more poised than
Arizona, Detroit, and Cincinnati to pull an upset over a Pittsburgh team
missing their most dynamic offensive weapon. We all know what happens when
Roethlisberger is put under pressure, and if the Ravens’ offensive line can
protect Forsett, it’s worth remembering that the Steelers are 1-4 when allowing
over 140 yards on the ground. Plus, as a
pessimistic Patriots fan, I really don’t want to see the Ravens in the playoffs
again.
Prediction: Baltimore 23, Pittsburgh 20.
Playoff doppelganger: NFC Wild Card
Round, 2004, St. Louis 27, Seattle 20.
The 8-8 Rams weren’t really good at much (a -73 point differential and a
ridiculous -24 turnover margin), but they did know how to beat the 9-7
Seahawks, and in 2004 defeating Seattle constituted for 1/3 of the Rams’
victories for the season. It may come as
a shock to the Seahawk fan base (for whom nothing interesting ever happened in
football or in life prior to 2010), but the St. Louis-Seattle divisional rivalry
was once pretty exciting back in the days when the NFC West was terrible. Surprisingly few people picked the Rams back
then and surprisingly few people are picking the Ravens this week.
Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts
(-3½)
Sunday, January 4, 1:05pm EST, CBS.
It’s a matchup of the two kings of
wild card weekend! This is the third
straight year (and fourth in the last five years) that the Colts play in the
wild card round and the fourth consecutive year (and fifth in the last six
years) for the Bengals. Their records in
the wild card round since 2009? Indy is
1-2 and Cincy is, as we all know, 0-5.
Isn’t it amazing to think that without that epic Andy Reid-Alex Smith
28-point collapse
last year, these two teams would be 0-8 in playoff games the last five years?
Considering both franchises’
underwhelming recent performances in the postseason, it should not come as a
surprise that of all the games this weekend, this is the one I am least looking
forward to. Simply put, neither team
merits that much excitement (I wish I could say that with each of their
combined playoff experience the winner is primed for a deep run, but the talent
simply isn’t there). The Colts are the
very definition of Bill Simmons’ category of the “good bad team”: A team that
beats up on lousy teams (Washington, Cleveland, the Giants) while playing in an
even lousier division (Tennessee, Houston, Jacksonville) and loses to good
teams (Pittsburgh, Dallas, New England). And “loses” is an understatement – they lost
those three games by a combined 74 points.
We know about Andrew Luck being a spectacular quarterback and even Trent
Richardson quietly having a competent season by somehow averaging over 3 yards
per carry and only having two fumbles. When
I look at their schedule, I see only two impressive wins by Indianapolis: A
20-13 home victory over the Ravens in Week 5 and (you guessed it) a 27-0
thrashing of Cincinnati at home in Week 7.
So if Indy beats up on the bad teams
but can’t beat the good ones, the only real question of this game is whether
Cincinnati is a good team or not. To
help answer this question, I took a trip to the archives, looked at some of my
previous previews of Wild Card weekend, and reexamined what I said about the
Bengals. Here is what I found:
2012:
“They went 0-7 against playoff teams this year; they haven’t won a playoff game
since 1991 and have never won a postseason game on the road; since November 6,
they’ve won one road game, and it was against the Rams; they lost to the Texans
at home on December 11, and gave up 300 passing yards to T.J. Yates. Oh, and they’re the Cincinnati Bengals.”
2013:
“Are [the Bengals] winning in spectacular fashion? Not exactly. The offensive line has
surrendered 46 sacks, which makes J.J. Watt fans understandably salivate. But A.J. Green (1,350 receiving yards, 11
touchdowns) is a huge receiving target, and Andy Dalton threw more touchdowns
than Schaub, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, and Philip Rivers . . . The
“rematch” factor will undoubtedly favor the Bengals, who are still bitter after
last year’s 31-10 defeat, and are desperately seeking their first playoff win
since 1991 (Andy Dalton is also no longer a rookie).”
2014:
“No one has ever really believed in Cincinnati, a franchise that hasn’t won a
game since 1991, and is 0-4 in the postseason under Marvin Lewis . . . The Best
case for Cincinnati is their 8-0 record at home. As a Patriots fan who saw home playoff losses
in three of the past four years, I can say 8-0 in the regular season doesn’t
mean crap. Since 2005, the recipe for
winning in the playoffs has been based around momentum, emotion, the ability to
win on the road, and experienced, fearless quarterback play.”
You’ll have to excuse me for sounding
like a broken record. But you also gotta
admit, that last sentence is pretty darn accurate and predicting San Diego to
go into chilly Cincinnati and beat the Bengals by multiple scores last January was
one of the smartest picks I’ve ever made in this column (crucially en route to
my 4-0 record last year’s wild card weekend).
So is there anything to add to this year’s description of the
Bengals? Not really. Jeremy Hill has looked really good. Before dropping last weekend’s game in Heinz
Field, the Bengals had won four straight road games (albeit against New
Orleans, Houston, Tampa Bay, and Cleveland).
Cincinnati is 9-0-1 when scoring 22 or more and 8-0 when allowing under
23 points. Their only impressive wins
were their season sweep of Baltimore and their mildly flukish Monday night win
against the Broncos.
Cincinnati has all the talent to
beat the Good Bad Colts, but they won’t because Andy Dalton doesn’t win big
games and Marvin Lewis is the Marty Shottenheimer of this generation. Indy has looked shaky, but let’s remember
that they clinched the AFC South practically in September and if you take out
the Dallas fiasco, the Colts won five of their final six games. I get the sense that #ChuckStrong and company
have pulled a Dwayne Wade and have checked out for much of the season in preparation
for the playoffs (that doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll play well). The best case for Cincinnati is that Andy
Dalton likes playing 1pm
Sunday games and they have to win a playoff game at some point, right? Even Susan Lucci eventually
won an Emmy. The best case for me is that the winner of this game flies to
Foxborough.
Prediction: Indianapolis 37, Cincinnati
21.
Playoff doppelganger: 2004 AFC Wild
Card, Indianapolis 49, Denver 24. The
Jake Plummer-era Broncos are the best parallel to the Andy Dalton-era Bengals:
A borderline competent quarterback incapable of reaching the next level but
buoyed by good coaching, a strong running game and an above-average regular
season defense. And Andrew Luck, like
Peyton Manning early in his career, feasted on bad teams and couldn’t beat the
good ones like New England and Pittsburgh.
In this game, Reggie Wayne had 10 receptions for 221 yards and two
scores; last year in the Wild Card round, T.Y. Hilton had 13 receptions for 224
yards and two scores. Andrew Luck has
both of them at his arsenal.
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-7½)
Sunday, January 4, 4:40pm EST, FOX.
It wouldn’t feel right watching this
game without turkey, stuffing, and gravy, but at the same time, it doesn’t
really feel right watching this game, period.
The Cowboys didn’t have another December collapse? The Lions won 11 games with a 22nd
ranked offense and 3rd ranked defense? Either Tony Romo or Matthew Stafford will
emerge from a playoff game victorious?
Something in the universe feels awry.
What happened to the annual Packers-49ers or Eagles-Saints wild card
game?
The case for the Cowboys: They
played December like a desperate Mountain West college team making their case
to be in the BCS title game (scoring 41, 38, 42, and 44 points in each game
respectively); their offensive line was so outstanding that it propelled Tony
Romo and DeMarco Murray into legitimate MVP candidates (why giving a collective
MVP to the Dallas offensive line was never a serious discussion confounds me;
this is the same league that once gave MVP to a kicker);
the Dallas defense ranked second in total takeaways with 31; they went
undefeated on the road, something only five other teams have ever done in NFL
history. Each of those teams at very
minimum advanced to the Super Bowl.
This means that, strangely enough,
homefield advantage could be anything but advantageous to Dallas. The Cowboys went 4-4 at home, but two of
those losses occurred when Romo was injured and a third was on Week One. Thus, the only loss that adequately
demonstrates Dallas’ weaknesses was their Thanksgiving Day 23-point thrashing at the hands of Mark Sanchez and the Eagles. So how did Philadelphia win that game? The Eagles stacked the line of scrimmage and
pressured Romo relentlessly, resulting in two interceptions and only 73 rushing
yards for Murray (his lowest total of the season when healthy). Philadelphia’s up-tempo offense converted 8
third downs and ran for 256 yards on the ground.
Therefore, the steps to beating
Dallas is relatively simple: Successfully run the ball (the Cowboys are 1-3
when allowing over 123 rushing yards); force turnovers (the Cowboys are 3-4
when turning the ball over 2 or more times; they are 9-0 in all other games);
and hold Dallas to under 20 points (the Cowboys are 0-4 in such games). It’s not rocket science. But the problem is that successfully
achieving those things is easier said than done, and Detroit doesn’t exactly
appear to be the best team to take Dallas down.
To be fair, the Lions look
surprisingly formidable on paper: They had the third-best scoring defense in football
and held all but five opponents under 17 points. Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush are finally
healthy (think for a moment how much more amazing that sentence would have
sounded 7-8 years ago) and Jim Caldwell knows how to win in the playoffs. Furthermore, Tony Romo has inexplicably
struggled against the Lions, going 1-3 in his career against Detroit. In the last two Detroit-Dallas games, the
Lions overcame second-half deficits of 24 and 10 points respectively, and
Megatron had a total of 425 receiving yards.
And even though Stafford has a record of 0-1 in the postseason, it’s
only one fewer win than Romo’s record of 1-3.
But then you have to step back and
look at the most telling statistic of Stafford’s career – a stat which was
repeatedly brought up by Joe and Troy in last week’s loss to the Packers: In
road games against teams above .500, Stafford has a lifetime record of 0-16. Yikes. Ben Roethlisberger and Meryl Streep Aaron Rodgers won
Super Bowls as 6 seeds. Joe Flacco and
Eli Manning had to make epic road trips to win their titles. Peyton and Tom, the same (maybe someday the most recent Super Bowl winning QB will actually have to win a meaningful playoff
game on the road). The point is this: Dallas and Detroit both possess individual
components of what could potentially make a championship team – the Cowboys’
offensive line, the Lions’ defensive line, and Dez Bryant and Megatron. Both have the ability to clinch a Super Bowl appearance
and maybe even win a title. The
difference is that one of these teams knows how to win on the road, while the
other team still has not figured it out (and frankly, they haven’t figured it
out since the days of Bobby Layne). Don’t
overthink this one.
Prediction: Dallas 35, Detroit 17.
Playoff Doppelganger: 2009 NFC Wild
Card, Dallas 34, Philadelphia 14. You
may not remember this, but the 2009 Cowboys also went into the playoffs red-hot
after beating the 13-0 Saints in New Orleans and shutting out the Eagles in the
season finale. The only real memorable
thing about Tony Romo’s lone playoff victory was dog abuser
rehabilitated Michael Vick throwing his first touchdown pass in three seasons. The excitement over Romo exorcising his
postseason demons was short-lived, however, as Dallas went to Minnesota the
next week and lost by 31. I somehow don’t
see a repeat of that happening this time.
Thoughts? Disagreements? Angry that I did not meet my quota of Tom
Brady references? Write below.
