MLB 2014: Season in Review & Postseason Picks

This turned out to be a sensational year for baseball.  Every year proves to bring about more and more parody in the game that used to be ruled by the pocketbook.  The second Wild Card slot in each league proved to be a great addition to the postseason race once again as over half of the teams in the league had a legitimate shot at the playoffs with as little as two weeks to go in the season.  This season said goodbye to one of the greatest players of our generation in Derek Jeter, while two young players very firmly took hold of the position as the new faces of MLB in Mike Trout and Clayton Kershaw.  Let's look at each division and see how things turned out.

AL East

My Preseason Predictions

1.  New York Yankees*

2.  Boston Red Sox*

3.  Baltimore Orioles

4.  Tampa Bay Rays

5.  Toronto Blue Jays

Final Standings

1.  Baltimore Orioles*

2.  New York Yankees

3.  Toronto Blue Jays

4.  Tampa Bay Rays

5.  Boston Red Sox

The one division I had the time to write a preseason article about is the one I messed up the most.  So I have the most words to eat here.  I wasn't necessarily that wrong.  I thought the Orioles might take a step back, which players like Chris Davis did, but I didn't predict breakout years from Nelson Cruz and Steve Pearce.  The Yankees finished in second, but when you look at the injuries they suffered throughout the year, it's hard not to ask "what if" for Jeter's Farewell Tour.  I said they needed to be healthy, and it is hard to argue that they wouldn't have been right there if they had a full season from Sabathia, Tanaka, Pineda, Teixeira, and others.  The team I missed on most was the Blue Jays, who I said would be guaranteed the cellar.  The offense was better than anyone thought and almost got them in the playoffs.  The Rays were a disappointment to the point that they were sellers at the Trading Deadline and gave up their prized possession, David Price.  The Red Sox I can't figure out.  They went from cellar, to world champs, back to the cellar again.  I can't tell if Boston Strong made them over-achieve last year, if injuries derailed a season that was headed back to the promised land, or the Red Sox core just got really old really quick.  Any could be possible.  All I know is 7 years after I made a bet that no AL East team other than the Yankees and Red Sox would make the playoffs over the next decade, we have a year where neither make the playoffs for the first time in the Wild Card Era.  If I hadn't lost it before, I think I have officially lost that bet to Zach.

AL Central

My Preseason Predictions

1.  Kansas City Royals*

2.  Detroit Tigers*

3.  Cleveland Indians

4.  Chicago White Sox

5.  Minnesota Twins

Final Standings

1.  Detroit Tigers*

2.  Kansas City Royals*

3.  Cleveland Indians

4.  Chicago White Sox

5.  Minnesota Twins

According to Zach, if it wasn't for a terribly blown call a couple weeks ago, I would have predicted this category perfectly.  The Tigers haven't been playing great baseball, but their talent level is just too high to not make the playoffs.  The Royals have finally pushed through that wall that has kept them out of the playoffs since the 80's.  They are a hungry team with nothing to lose, which makes them a team no one wants to play in the playoffs.  The Cleveland Indians showed that last season wasn't a fluke by finishing over 500 again this year.  The White Sox were more talented than their record showed, but they just couldn't emerge in this tough division.  The Twins fired their mainstay manager after a season where their record perfectly reflected their talent level.

AL West

My Preseason Predictions

1.  Texas Rangers*

2.  Los Angeles Angels

3.  Seattle Mariners

4.  Oakland A's

5.  Houston Astros

Final Standings

1.  Los Angeles Angels*

2.  Oakland A's*

3.  Seattle Mariners

4.  Houston Astros

5.  Texas Rangers

Finally, all the spending the Angels have done over the past few seasons has finally paid off.  They had the best record in baseball this year and finished as one of the hottest teams over the last few months.  On the other hand, I knew one of these years Oakland was going to stop over-achieving.  I didn't realize it would require Mr. Moneyball to get too greedy and completely destroy his team's chemistry through questionable trades.  They went from the best team in baseball at the All Star Break to needing a win on the last day of the season to clinch the final Wild Card spot.  If they somehow beat the Royals in the Wild Card game, they probably won't go any further, making this season a disappointment by the Bay.  One of the biggest surprises of the season was Seattle.  They weren't supposed to compete for another season or two, but the leadership of Robinson Cano and Felix Hernandez had them in contention until the last day.  Houston continues to take baby steps toward their World Series championship in 2017.  I know I picked the Rangers first and they ended up in the cellar, but this was more a result of a record-setting string of injuries than underachieving.  Their lineup and rotation was completely unrecognizable from the preseason projections after about mid-April.  Add to that the resignation of Ron Washington, who was their heart and soul, and you have a floundering organization going into 2015.

NL East

My Preseason Predictions

1.  Washington Nationals*

2.  Atlanta Braves

3.  New York Mets

4.  Miami Marlins

5.  Philadelphia Phillies

Final Standings

1.  Washington Nationals*

2.  Atlanta Braves

3.  New York Mets

4.  Miami Marlins

5.  Philadelphia Phillies

I am quite impressed with myself as I pretty much nailed the entire National League.  After a down year in 2013, the Nationals were back to playing up to expectations, with arguably the best lineup and rotation in the game.  The Braves gave a valiant effort, but injuries to their pitching staff finally took their toll down the stretch.  While the Braves disappointed with their record, the Mets quietly put together a strong season and took a step forward with the same record as Atlanta.  Up until the last couple weeks, the Marlins somehow stayed in the race even without their phenom ace Jose Fernandez.  This was thanks mainly to Giancarlo Stanton, one of the most exciting players in the league.  As for the Phillies, they sure got old.  They stayed loyal to their aging stars and are now paying the price by not being able to afford new young stars to stay relevant.  It will be five years before they get out of the cellar.

NL Central

My Preseason Predictions

1.  St. Louis Cardinals*

2.  Pittsburgh Pirates*

3.  Milwaukee Brewers

4.  Cincinnati Reds

5.  Chicago Cubs

Final Standings

1.  St. Louis Cardinals*

2.  Pittsburgh Pirates*

3.  Milwaukee Brewers

4.  Cincinnati Reds

5.  Chicago Cubs

Who else could win this division?!?  You could put any roster in Cardinals jersey, and they would win this division.  It's like magic.  However, this year they had some competition for the crown, coming down to the last week to fend off the Pirates.  Pittsburgh proved that last year was no fluke as they followed 2013's magical run with a return trip to the playoffs.  The Brewers were the surprise class of this division for most of the season, but fell back fairly dramatically over the last month or two.  It's a good sign for their future though.  The Reds took a giant step back with no real changes to their team besides the manager.  All we learned this year is Bryan Price is no Dusty Baker.  Hopefully, they realize this before their core group of players starts playing like Phillies.  The Cubs have become the National League version of the Astros, with some great young talent that looks like it might all come together sometime near the end of the decade.

NL West

My Preseason Predictions

1.  Los Angeles Dodgers*

2.  San Francisco Giants*

3.  San Diego Padres

4.  Arizona Diamondbacks

5.  Colorado Rockies

Final Standings

1.  Los Angeles Dodgers*

2.  San Francisco Giants*

3.  San Diego Padres

4.  Colorado Rockies

5.  Arizona Diamondbacks

The Dodgers once again showed by the end of the season that they were the class of the division and worth every penny they spent on that roster.  The Giants are fulfilling their requirement of making the playoffs every other year.  Can they win it all again like their last couple runs?  The Padres showed once again that they are a solid team that in no way can compete with the talent level of the other teams in their division.  Finishing around 500 is the best they can hope for.  The only mistake I made in the whole division was the NL West cellar.  The Rockies started off strong, but the lack of pitching once again proved costly.  Last came the massively underachieving Diamondbacks, who seemed to have lost all chances when Patrick Corbin went down in Spring Training.

My Postseason Awards

Manager of the Year

AL - Lloyd McClendon - SEA

NL - Mike Redmond - MIA

If you were to tell me the Mariners were to play a meaningful 162nd game of the season this year, I wouldn't have believed you (and I'm a die-hard Mariner fan).  Lloyd McClendon changed the culture in Seattle and made them believe they could win in his first year there.  Mike Redmond took whatever was left after the debacle of a couple years ago and put another young, upstart Marlins team flirting with 500 and the playoffs.  I don't know how, but they always do this, and this latest achievement was all thanks to Redmond.

Rookie of the Year

My Preseason Predictions

AL

1.  Masahiro Tanaka - NYY

2.  Xander Bogaerts - BOS

3.  Taijuan Walker - SEA

4.  Yordano Ventura - KC

5.  George Springer - HOU

NL

1.  Michael Wacha - STL

2.  Gregory Polanco - PIT

3.  Travis d'Arnaud - NYM

4.  Billy Hamilton - CIN

5.  Oscar Taveres - STL

My ROY Standings

AL

1.  Jose Abreu - CWS

2.  Matt Shoemaker - LAA

3.  Yordano Ventura - KC

4.  George Springer - HOU

5.  Brock Holt - BOS

NL

1.  Billy Hamilton - CIN

2.  Jacob deGrom - NYM

3.  Travis d'Arnaud - NYM

4.  Kolten Wong - STL

5.  Yangervis Solarte - SD

My preseason predictions were derailed by injuries to Tanaka, Walker, and Springer.  Bogaerts underwhelmed after a huge postseason last year.  The choice for AL ROY would have been a harder decision if Tanaka had been healthy all year, but he wasn't ... so it wasn't.  Jose Abreu proved to be one of the best pure power hitters in the league in his first year in the league.  Look for him to compete for MVP's in years to come.  The surprise of the year was Shoemaker, who was thrust into the rotation as an undrafted free agent due to injuries and ended up winning 16 games.  Springer still makes the list after a huge breakout start before his injury.

An injury  to the most hyped rookie coming into the season took my NL winner away.  Add that to lackluster debuts from Polanco and Taveres, and my predictions were pretty off.  The National League didn't have quite an obvious choice as Abreu in the AL, but Billy Hamilton's electric speed took the league by storm.  Him on base was the biggest game-changer the league has seen since Ricky Henderson.  The rest of the list had solid rookie years, highlighted by d'Arnuad's solid season as the Mets' everyday catcher.  Hamilton was the only breakout star though.

Cy Young Award

My Preseason Predictions

AL

1.  Masahiro Tanaka - NYY

2.  Felix Hernandez - SEA

3.  David Price - TB

4.  Yu Darvish - TEX

5.  James Shields - KC

NL

1.  Jose Fernandez - MIA

2.  Clayton Kershaw - LAD

3.  Stephen Strasburg - WAS

4.  Francisco Liriano - PIT

5.  Madison Bumgarner - SF

My Cy Young Standings

AL

1.  Felix Hernandez - SEA

2.  Corey Kluber - CLE

3.  Chris Sale - CWS

4.  Max Scherzer - DET

5.  Jared Weaver - LAA

NL

1.  Clayton Kershaw - LAD

2.  Adam Wainwright - STL

3.  Johnny Cueto - CIN

4.  Doug Fister - WAS

5.  Madison Bumgarner - SF

Injuries to Tanaka and Darvish eliminated two early frontrunners.  Price and Shields had strong seasons once again, but didn't quite reach the top of the list this year.  This year was all about King Felix, taking the ERA title again and having a streak never seen before in league history.  Hernandez had 16 straight starts with 7+ innings and 2 or fewer runs scored, more than anyone since the dead ball era.  The surprise of the year here was Corey Kluber, leading the way on the no name Indians with 18 wins.  Also, if it weren't for a guy named Kershaw, we would be talking a lot more about Chris Sale being the best lefty in the game.

Speaking of Kershaw, he is well on his way of being one of the greatest pitchers of all time if he can stay healthy.  He even missed a month at the start of the year and still reached the lofty totals he accumulated this season.  It's a shame we couldn't see the showdown between Kershaw and Fernandez that was obviously coming if Fernandez had stayed healthy.  The only surprise on the top 5 is Doug Fister.  On a staff with Stephen Strasburgh, Gio Gonzalez, and Jordan Zimmerman, Fister and Tanner Roark became the best on the staff and probably the biggest reasons they had the best record in the NL.

MVP

My Preseason Predictions

AL

1.  Mike Trout - LAA

2.  Miguel Cabrera - DET

3.  Adrian Beltre - TEX

4.  Robinson Cano - SEA

5.  Chris Davis - BAL

NL

1.  Hanley Ramirez - LAD

2.  Bryce Harper - WAS

3.  Andrew McCutchen - PIT

4.  Justin Upton - ATL

5.  Ryan Braun - MIL

My MVP Standings

AL

1.  Mike Trout - LAA

2.  Miguel Cabrera - DET

3.  Jose Altuve - HOU

4.  Nelson Cruz - BAL

5.  Michael Brantley - CLE

NL

1.  Giancarlo Stanton - MIA

2.  Andrew McCutchen - PIT

3.  Yasiel Puig - LAD

4.  Josh Harrison - PIT

5.  Carlos Gomez - MIL

I had a feeling this would be the year Trout would finally break through and pass Miguel Cabrera at the top of the AL.  Nelson Cruz replaced Chris Davis as the leader of the Oriole offense.  The two breakout stars that nobody is talking about this year were Jose Altuve and Michael Brantley.  By the end of the season, Altuve was the best 2B in baseball (yes, that means better than Cano).  Brantley almost single-handedly led the Indian offense to the playoffs.

In the NL, a lot of the big names in the game had down years.  Many people are saying Kershaw should be the MVP, but the MVP really should go to an everyday player.  The most dominant everyday player in the NL this year was Giancarlo Stanton.  He is the biggest freak of nature this league has seen in quite awhile.  The surprises on this list are Carlos Gomez and utilityman Josh Harrison.  Gomez has been a budding superstar for a few years now, but Josh Harrison might be the most valuable player in the league, just not in the most traditional sense.  He has played as many games as McCutchen, but at 6 or 7 different positions.  They don't make the playoffs without Harrison.

Postseason Predictions

Wild Card Round

Royals def. A's

Giants def. Pirates

The Royals are this year's Pirates.  That town is so starved for a postseason run, they will push their team to a win in this first round.  Not to mention they are catching the A's in the middle of their freefall.  I can see them try and step up their game as they have been playing like they had the postseason wrapped up for the last 3 months, but no one is beating the Royals and Big Game James in this one.

As for the actual Pirates, it is hard to root against them, but I can't see them capturing that same magic again, especially going up against the Giants.  Th Pirates lose here, but win the division next year.

Divisional Round

Tigers def. Orioles

Angels def. Royals

Nationals def. Giants

Dodgers def. Cardinals

The Orioles have definitely been playing better than the Tigers, but the playoffs are usually won with experience and pitching.  The Tigers have one of the best rotations in the game, not to mention some of the best hitters.  They should be able to handle the Orioles, but don't be surprised if the O's are able sneak up on them in the short series.

The Royals are a great story, but the great stories usually come to an end before things get too serious.  The Angels are too hot with too much firepower in that lineup to let the Royals keep their dream season going.

The Nationals are finally playing the way they should, and even though the Giants seemed to be destined to go all the way this year, I can't see the Nats losing this early.  However, that's what I thought a few years ago when the Cardinals had another of their miracle comebacks.

This will be a great matchup.  Flash vs. Fundamentals.  Starving for a title vs. Perennial contender.  The Cardinals are definitely weaker than they have been in past years, which doesn't necessarily mean they are out of it, but the Dodgers are too good for them to lose here.

Championship Series

Tigers def. Angels

Nationals def. Dodgers

The Angels have the better lineup, but sometimes clinching early can come back to bite you.  They also have a fairly young, inexperienced pitching staff.  They are good enough to win the Divisional Round on pure talent, but flat play combined with the pitching of Scherzer, Verlander, Sanchez, and Porcello will leave them watching the World Series at home.

The Nats and Dodgers are very similar teams.  Both have incredible pitching staffs, powerful lineups, and motivation to finally bring a championship back home.  The Nats pitching is just better than the Dodgers hitting.  If only Kershaw could pitch every game ... but he can't.

World Series

Nationals def. Tigers

As a Mariners fan, this World Series would leave me sad.  With the Nats getting there, it would mean the M's would be the last MLB franchise to never make a World Series.  Regardless of my personal feelings, this would be a fun World Series.  Strasburg vs. Cabrera, Fister vs. his old team, two rookie managers.  The storylines would all be there, yet it isn't your typical big market Goliath's like every other year.  The Nats are built like an American League team, with the Tigers at a disadvantage when Victor Martinez or Miguel Cabrera having to sit in the NL ballpark, unless Miggy goes back to 3rd.  I say Nats take it in 6, with World Series MVP being Asdrubal Cabrera.

Happy October!!!

2013 MLB Preview and Predictions: AL East

Nothing gets me more excited in sports than Baseball Opening Day.  It just wouldn't be Spring without every team starting fresh in their bid for a World Series title.  I have been following the baseball off-season and Spring Training obsessively over the last few months.  The World Baseball Classic is a great sideshow to the baseball Spring Training as well (which was won by the Dominican Republic if you weren't paying attention). So here I am going to give my preview and predictions for each team and division as we look ahead to another great summer of America's Pastime.

One thing I am excited about looking at this season is the new realignment of the teams.  The Houston Astros have moved from the NL Central to the AL West which doesn't seem like a very significant move at first glance.  Now all the divisions are equal.  What's the big deal?  The main way this affects the whole league is now there are an odd number of teams in both leagues.  This means for every team to be playing everyday, interleague play has to be scheduled everyday of the season.  This will start Opening Day with the Angels opening up in Cincinnati playing the Reds.  Each team shouldn't have to play any more interleague games than usual.  They will just be spread out instead of all bunched up in a two or three week time frame which I had been wanting to see for years.  So this is a great change and addition to the league.

We might as well start in the AL East because, let's face it, in a lot of ways it is the pulse of the baseball landscape.  This year is no different as it has become the best division top to bottom in the league.  Any team in this division could end up in the cellar or winning the World Series.  It all depends on how what is shown on paper plays out on the field.

1.  Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays are the latest team to try and buy their way to a deep postseason run (something that everyone in this division is quite familiar to).  A lot of times this strategy doesn't really pay off.  However, the way the Blue Jays have constructed this team leads me to believe that they could really have a shot at being as good as advertised.  The bats are going to be great, from Jose Reyes leading things off to Jose Bautista being healthy again in the middle of the order, but for me what makes this team great is the starting rotation.  The piece everyone is talking about is the reigning NL Cy Young award winner RA Dickey.  I honestly don't know how well he will be able to reproduce what he did last year, but I don't think he needs to because of what he has behind him.  Next in line, the Jays have guys like Josh Johnson and Mark Buehrle who they got when the Marlins traded away their entire roster.  If Johnson is healthy, he is one of the best pitchers in the league.  Buehrle has been one of the most consistently efficient starting pitchers of the last 10 years.  To round out the rotation, they throw out there Brandon Morrow who has quietly become a very solid starter that could be an All-Star in the next year or two, and JA Happ, who beat out former ace Ricky Romero for the last slot and has shown flashes of being the top line starter his scouting reports said he could be when he first came up.  (Remember, JA Happ was the centerpiece of the package of prospects the Astros got back from the Phillies in exchange for Roy Oswalt a few years ago.)  With this rotation, and the explosive lineup that has been assembled, it would take catastrophe (which isn't unheard of for these super-teams) for them not to at least be competing for the division.

2.  Tampa Bay Rays

These other four teams in this division all have massive upsides, but also have some glaring weaknesses.  The Rays I am placing at number two in this division because their weakness they have been able to overcome the last few seasons to be a quality team: offense.  Outside of Evan Longoria (when healthy), this team is average at best at the plate, but they always seem to get just enough to win on a consistent basis.  They have these opportunities thanks to an outstanding pitching staff.  Even with their small payroll forcing them to jettison Wade Davis and ace James Shields, they still have a core of great pitchers thanks to a never-ending well of quality pitchers buried in their system.  Oh yeah, David Price helps too.  The pitching will be great again, however I have to think the hitting weaknesses will catch up with them at some point.  The Rays have been no hit more over the last few seasons than most teams have in their franchises' histories.  They can't keep winning with this formula, can they?  If this worked every time, my Mariners would have been a playoff team last year...

3.  Baltimore Orioles

One of the great surprises of last season was the O's rise to the top of the AL East.  They had been building their team up from within, and it all finally paid off with a Wild Card birth and a run in the post-season.  I have them dropping from 2nd to 3rd this year for a few reasons.  First, it is really hard to repeat that kind of success in this division.  Last year, they caught everyone by surprise.  This year, everyone knows what they are about.  They won't be allowed to sneak by anybody this year, which leads to my second reason.  Jump start teams like the O's were last year usually drop off a little the year after.  Part of this is because of what I already said with people gunning for them this time around.  Also, when you are a young player and finally have a year where you reach that potential, rarely does it become consistent right away.  Look for guys like Adam Jones, Chris Davis, and Matt Wieters to fall off a little from the great seasons they had last year.  Also, I doubt their unknown rotation will be able to duplicate all the success they had last year.  They will be good, but not as great as they were.

4.  New York Yankees

I hate to predict this because they always find a way to make the playoffs every year.  I wouldn't doubt if they are in the playoff hunt this year again, but they just have too many things working against them this year to make it likely.  First, they're old.  CC Sabathia is not young anymore, and Kuroda the same.  Pettitte is their 3 starter who they brought out of retirement a few years ago.  Their lineup features guys like Ichiro and Vernon Wells who have moved on from other teams due to them being in the twilight of their careers.  These are the healthy players, which is their other issue entering the season: injuries.  Four of their best players (Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Mark Teixeira, Curtis Granderson) are injured entering the season with two of them (Rodriguez, Teixeira) likely not to play this season at all.  The team does not feature much depth to replace this production either.  The Yankees will be running guys like Eduardo Nunez and Lyle Overbay out in their Opening Day lineup.  That doesn't sound like a typical Yankees lineup.  That's why it won't be a typical Yankees season.  One thing that have going for them is I think Robinson Cano will be an MVP candidate this year.

5.  Boston Red Sox

About 5 years ago, I bet a friend of mine that no team besides the Yankees or Red Sox would make the playoffs from the AL East in the next decade.  Of course, the next season the Rays were in the World Series.  Now five years later, I am predicting these two teams to be in the cellar of the division.  They just got too old way too fast.  The Red Sox imploded last year due to dissension between the team leaders and the manager (which is never good).  This year the Sox brought back an old Francona disciple (John Farrell) to be manager to try and get things back to "normal."  I think it will help, but their talent level is just not there right now.  Mike Napoli will be a strong addition.  If Shane Victorino can get back to his form from a few years ago he will be great.  If not, he will be booed out of the stadium every night.  Ellsbury has to stay healthy (which has never happened).  David Ortiz needs to come back healthy and productive at some point (which will be tough at his age).  With that said, there are holes in the lineup beyond those question marks.  The pitching should be all right if Lester and Lackey bounce back (Lester from a bad year, Lackey from an injury).  Joel Hanrahan is a great addition as the new closer, but I don't know how many opportunities he'll have.  I don't think they will be a 100-loss team.  (I honestly think whoever the cellar team is in this division should be within 5-10 games of .500.)  However, with the competition that this division has this year, Boston has not made enough improvements to get out of the cellar.  They did a decent job starting over, but now it needs to re-build, and in Boston the re-building better not take long!


So there is the AL East.  Stay tuned for more previews and predictions.