Oscar Breakdown and Handicapping: Best Actor

With the exception of last year and (sort of) 2008, when we at least had a two horse race for the award, this category has been uncompetitive since 2003. This year is no different. Check out the contenders’ cases for winning and their overall odds below…

5. Denzel Washington – Flight

Notable awards: none

Notable nominations: BFCA, Golden Globes, SAG

Case for the Oscar: This was an obvious nominee, but there is just no chance that he is winning this. His role called for a much different side of Washington than we are used to seeing, but the movie was a bit ridiculous and went too light when it could have really dug into the character study elements that would have left Washington with no choice but to bring it. It is a fine performance, but the other contenders have much stronger cases. Even though he is one of the most popular actors in the world, I cannot see him getting a third before Day-Lewis gets his third.

Oscar Doppelganger: 1991 Best Actor: Robert De Niro. This was a commercially popular film that got solid reviews, yet there was a portion of audiences that hated it. The nomination here was an easy choice, but going up against a juggernaut and having no real signature wins throughout awards season caused the universally popular two-time winner to have no real chance going into the ceremony. His nomination was his reward.

Odds of winning: 150/1

4. Joaquin Phoenix – The Master

Notable awards: Los Angeles Critics

Notable nominations: BAFTA, BFCA, Golden Globes

Case for the Oscar: He gave the best performance of the year. His role is filled with Oscar scenes. He pushed himself further in this role than anyone did in 2012. However, his movie did was not a hit with the Academy. He expressed his hatred for the entire awards process. He gave a 2 hour middle finger to Hollywood with I’m Still Here. If the Academy is being honest, then Phoenix will win. They won’t, so he won’t.

Oscar Doppelganger: 2011 Best Actress: Rooney Mara. The movie was well-received from critics and from a portion of audiences. She missed out on the SAG nomination, causing many people to doubt her chances at the Oscar nom. The Academy wound up having enough people who are still trying to awarding the best achievements in film, so the nomination came. Going up against a legend and a couple more performances in much more popular films restricted her from taking home her Oscar.

Odds of winning: 75/1

3. Hugh Jackman – Les Miserables

Notable awards: Golden Globes (Comedy/Musical)

Notable nominations: BAFTA, BFCA, SAG

Case for the Oscar: He is a very popular guy. He has even hosted the show, which was fairly well-received. That one moron lady one the Oscar nominations telecast called it “probably the most mind-blowing performance I have ever seen”. So, even though his singing is really awkward, he clearly captured a wide audience. Missing out on the Directing and Screenplay categories shows that the film is not as popular as it should have been on paper, but his performance has been singled out as being one of the year’s best. It is hard to imagine him winning an Oscar, considering he has never really been in a good movie outside of the first two X-Men flicks, but role is just so much Oscar bait that if they are not going to give DDL his third, then this has about as good of a chance as anyone.

Oscar Doppelganger: 1966 Best Actor: Steve McQueen. A bit of a strange comparison, I know. He was one of the more popular actors around. He had several better roles, but this effortless role in an Oscar movie is the one that broke him through to get his only nomination. He probably got a fair amount of votes, but the winner was obvious and predetermined.

Odds of winning: 50/1

2. Bradley Cooper – Silver Linings Playbook

Notable awards: National Board of Review

Notable nominations: BAFTA, BFCA, Golden Globes (Comedy/Musical), Spirit Awards, SAG

Case for the Oscar: He is a rising star, and this role proved to all of the skeptics that he actually can act. He is in the favorite of the acting branch of the Academy, which is the largest portion of the population. The movie could be a surprise winner for the major awards, which just might be enough to sweep in its star to officially start the career of a future megastar and leading man in Hollywood for the next several decades.

Oscar Doppelganger: 1989 Best Actor: Tom Cruise. He had already won over audiences with his box office hits, but playing against type for one of the more respected directors of his time brought him his first, well-deserved Oscar nom. His film was one of the favorites for the top prizes, and despite the presence of the obvious favorite Daniel Day-Lewis, he was able to win over audiences and change everyone’s opinion about him. This nomination essentially started the career of one of the biggest stars we have ever seen.

Odds of winning: 30/1

1. Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln

Notable awards: BAFTA, Boston Critics, BFCA, Chicago Critics, Golden Globes (Drama), National Society of Film Critics, New York Critics, SAG

Notable nominations: none

Case for the Oscar: He is going to win again. It is incredible to think about his career, which essentially started a couple years before his Oscar win in 1989. He has only made 10 films since then, including this, his third Oscar win. He never really seems to wear on audiences or voters either. Watching him accept the awards on stage, it just seems like we are watching a walking legend, one so quiet and reserved that it is unbelievable that he turned into Bill the Butcher, Christy Brown, and Daniel Plainview. This role basically decided won him the Oscar the moment the poster came out. He then managed to blow everyone away and exceed expectations. This award is one of the 2 or 3 biggest locks of the year. It is difficult to compare anyone to DDL, since no one has ever won 3 Best Actor awards, let alone winning 3 times in an 11 film span. We should all just sit back and enjoy his career while it lasts and eagerly await the announcement of his next project.

Oscar Doppelganger: 2007 Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis. He was the favorite the moment the trailer came out. He dominated awards season, with the exception of losing the first one, the National Board of Review. His film was nominated in all the right places but was probably never going to win in any of them except for lead actor.

Odds of winning: 1/50

Previous articles:

Best Actress

Best Supporting Actor

Best Supporting Actress

Best Original and Adapted Screenplays

Thoughts? Comments? Coming soon: Best Director!

Oscar Breakdown and Handicapping: Best Actress

A couple months ago, this one seemed to be all but over. Jennifer Lawrence is a superstar, and it appeared that there was no one who could touch her. Now, after the rise of Jessica Chastain and a late push for the sublime Emmanuelle Riva, we have a tough three-actress race. Check out the breakdown below…

5. Naomi Watts – The Impossible

Notable awards: none

Notable nominations: BFCA, Golden Globes, SAG

Case for the Oscar: She was in a movie that had everything going for it, but the controversy surrounding her story restricted its box office. It is ridiculous that this is only her second nomination, but she will have to continue to wait for her day. The nomination is her reward.

Oscar Doppelganger: 2010 Best Actress: Nicole Kidman. The film was not the biggest hit, but the performance was a powerhouse that secured an easy nomination. She was popular worldwide, yet she missed out on nominations on several occasions. She stood very little chance at winning, not just because of the tough subject matter, but because of the incredible performances ahead of her in much more warmly-received films.

Odds of winning: 200/1

4. Quvenzhane Wallis – Beasts of the Southern Wild

Notable awards: none

Notable nominations: BFCA, Spirit Awards

Case for the Oscar: She was ineligible for the SAG, so we do not quite know what her support actually looks like. The film clearly has its following, so if there is an award in its future, why not this one? She is going to need to tackle some huge contenders (including one some 80 years her senior), but I wouldn’t put it past the Academy. It has very little chance of happening, but a three-way vote split would not exactly be unheard of, resulting in those big Beasts fans creating quite a stir in this race. Too bad we don’t get to see the final voting results…

Oscar Doppelganger: Gabourey Sidibe – Precious. In her first career performance, she absolutely blew away every audience member that sought out her film. The indie film vastly overachieved in terms of nominations,which expressed the deep-seeded love for the film overall. She gave one of the more impressive debuts we have seen in a long time, but her chances of actually winning were slim due to the other contenders.

Odds of winning: 75/1

3. Emmanuelle Riva – Amour

Notable awards: BAFTA, Boston Critics, Los Angeles Critics (tie), National Society of Film Critics

Notable nominations: BFCA

Case for the Oscar: The older voters will remember her early work in Hiroshima, mon amour. This is her first nomination, and the Oscar ceremony will be on her 86^th birthday (she was born in 1927, the year the first Oscar winner was released). The film has all of the important nominations in the major categories. Oh, and she may have given the best performance of the bunch. The theatrical release has expanded in the past couple weeks, ensuring that her heartbreaking performance is fresh on the Academy members’ minds when voting ends. She is up against two juggernauts, but honestly, their careers basically just started a couple years ago. This is the only time they will ever get to reward this actress.

Oscar Doppelganger: Best Actor 1999: Richard Farnsworth. He was one of those faces that audiences may recognize, but not really know what from. He had the cool story of making an appearance in Gone with the Wind exactly 60 years before the ceremony. His performance was endearing and heartfelt, and that certainly struck a chord with the Academy members, even though the film was not exactly widely-seen.

Odds of winning: 3/1

2. Jessica Chastain – Zero Dark Thirty

Notable awards: BFCA, Chicago Critics, Golden Globes (Drama), National Board of Review

Notable nominations: BAFTA, SAG

Case for the Oscar: She is in a film that, perhaps for the wrong reasons, has been in the spotlight since its inception. If the Academy wants to award the movie, it will and should be for this performance. Her rise to stardom has been as sudden as any that I have ever seen, and she deserves to win. She won the important Critics Choice award, as well as getting the most important precursor mentions. She completely steps out of her comfort zone with this film, playing about as polar opposite from her role in The Help as possible. It may not exactly be a typical winner, but getting some comparisons to Jodie Foster in The Silence of the Lambs says something.

Oscar Doppelganger: 2005 Best Actress: Reese Witherspoon. She won all of the important precursors, yet had the odd case of almost never really competing against the other major contender, due to the fact that it was an indie and in the opposite Golden Globe category. It was not a normal Oscar winner and the film was underwhelming in terms of nominations, but she rode her popularity all the way to the Oscar.

Odds of winning: 9/4

1. Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook

Notable awards: Golden Globes (Comedy/Musical), Los Angeles Critics (tie), Satellite Award, SAG

Notable nominations: BAFTA, BFCA, Spirit Awards (will win)

Case for the Oscar: She has the backing of the Weinsteins. Her film continues to place among the top of the box office week after week leading up to the Oscar ballots being due. She was hilarious when she hosted “Saturday Night Live”, and each one of her acceptance speeches has been genuine, something rare for someone so new to the ceremonies. Her performance is one that wins Oscars, and the only thing that may be going against her is that she is only 22, so she has many years ahead of her before she even hits her prime. They may want to make her wait, giving the award to one of the two contenders who have been at it for several years. She is the favorite, but it is by no means a secure favorite. Her SAG win was important, and her film getting 4 acting noms is telling. Doubt going 0 for 4 was a joke, and the Academy will not want to do that again.

Oscar Doppelganger: 2011 Best Actor: Jean Dujardin. He had the advantage of not competing against the other contender for the majority of the season. He had the Weinstein backing. His film was all over the major awards, vastly overachieving given its small budget and ambition. He was the favorite going into the ceremony, but by no means an overwhelming one. He was a relative newcomer, yet his performance was just so impressive that the Academy just could not resist (or say “no” to Harvey).

Odds of winning: EVEN

Previous articles:

Best Original and Adapted Screenplay

Best Supporting Actress

Best Supporting Actor

Thoughts? Comments? Coming up: BEST ACTOR!

Oscar Breakdown and Handicapping: Best Supporting Actor

This is the most wide open category of this year and of the past few years. The awards have been splitting up between a few actors. The SAG went to one, the Critic’s Choice went to one, the Golden Globe and BAFTA went to another. We have all previous winners. To me, this category somewhat mirrors 2007 Supporting Actress. Nobody can really predict this topsy-turvy race. Sadly, due to the format of the Oscars, this will be the first award given. At least we can start out on a good note. Check it out…

5. Alan Arkin – Argo

Notable awards: none

Notable nominations: BAFTA, BFCA, Golden Globes, SAG

Case for the Oscar: Honestly, this is the only one of the nominees that stands no chance at winning. He is just a throw-away nomination that is along for the ride. That is not to say he is undeserving of his nomination, but a win would be more than a little ridiculous. His nomination is just a testament to how much the industry respects his character work.

Oscar Doppelganger: 2011 Best Supporting Actor: Jonah Hill. He was in one of the most popular Best Picture nominees box office-wise, and his performance was noticed by each award show, while never standing a chance at taking any of them. His scene-stealing effort was commendable, but not awards stuff. His nomination was his reward.

Odds of winning: 100/1

4. Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Master

Notable awards: BFCA, Chicago Critics

Notable nominations: BAFTA, Golden Globes, SAG

Case for the Oscar: He was the critic darling in the category, which doesn’t always lead to Oscar gold. If one of the film’s 3 acting nominations is going to take home the award, he stands the best chance. He was borderline lead, which helps him against the nominees with much shorter screentime. He is one of the most respected actors in the world, which the Academy may want to reinforce by giving him a second Oscar in 7 years. He had the most difficult role of the bunch, and he nailed ever nuance of his volatile character. If the Academy doesn’t hate The Master as much as it appears that they did, then this will be our winner.

Oscar Doppelganger: 2002 Best Actor: Jack Nicholson. He was the critical favorite throughout the season, but the film underwhelmed in its nominations count, only garnering acting nods. He had won less than a decade prior, which perhaps made some voters reluctant to give another award to him so soon. He made a strong push for the Oscar against a host of former winners but came up just short.e our winner. ever nuance of his volatile character.er ion was his reward.

Odds of winning: 6/1

3. Robert De Niro – Silver Linings Playbook

Notable awards: none

Notable nominations: BFCA, SAG

Case for the Oscar: He hasn’t had that signature moment at all this awards season, but he is still right there in the running. There are so many members of the Academy that grew up watching De Niro and idolize him. His first nomination in over 20 years is the perfect chance for all of those members to finally express their appreciation for his career and heartfelt performance in the Weinstein awards train. His performance is not as showy or scene-stealing as any of the other 4 nominees, but his name and movie’s popularity will carry him into serious contention. If the Academy wants to go with Chastain or Riva for Best Actress, then this will be the easiest way to award Silver Linings Playbook.

Oscar Doppelganger: 1974 Best Supporting Actor: Fred Astaire. More than 30 years past his prime, the ever-popular actor got one last great supporting role and made a serious run at the Oscar. He still had a ton of fans, and while it would have been an acceptable win, it would be looked back on as a win with an agenda, throwing one last bone to one of the all time greats.

Odds of winning: 11/2

2. Christoph Waltz – Django Unchained

Notable awards: BAFTA, Golden Globes

Notable nominations: none

Case for the Oscar: His role is the most perfectly-written of the year. He is the main character in the movie, giving him much more time to show off. He just won in 2009, but there still may be some leftover love for one of the greatest character performances in recent memory. The two televised wins certainly help his case, despite receiving a strange SAG snub. Critics have called him the best character actor in the world, so when all of these other performances are more understated, one big beautiful showy performance could be the one to get the gold.

Oscar Doppelganger: 1993 Best Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones. A couple years removed from a very popular character performance in one of the Best Picture contenders, he was nominated again for a lead performance in the supporting category. Some may argue that it was too effortless, but nobody could deny his importance to the story and his scene-stealing ability. His win is seen as a bizarre choice in retrospect, but one that is really hard to take issue with given the actor and popularity of the film.

Odds of winning: 10/3

1. Tommy Lee Jones – Lincoln

Notable awards: SAG

Notable nominations: BAFTA, BFCA, Golden Globes

Case for the Oscar: He is in one of the Best Picture frontrunners. He has the very patriotic role in the movie, garnering the biggest reaction from the audience. He effortlessly steals several scenes, and he is an actor that the industry loves. He is in a film with other acting nominees, which could take away some votes if they want to spread the wealth. He won almost 20 years ago, so they may want to give him a second Oscar before actors who have won in the last 10 years. He looked…uh…less than thrilled to be at Golden Globes without winning, but the odds are that he will not have to suffer through that at the Oscars. Or he could just take off early like Eddie Murphy in ’06.

Oscar Doppelganger: 2004 Best Supporting Actor: Morgan Freeman. He was not really represented well in the critic awards, but he morphed into the frontrunner after several nominations and important mentions during the award season. He was one of the most respected actors out there, and the Academy was running out of legitimate chances to reward him. He got swept in with the popularity of the well-acted Best Picture contender, and won over a terrific group of nominees.

Odds of winning: 3/1

Previous articles:

Best Original and Adapted Screenplay

Best Supporting Actress

Thoughts? Comments? Coming up: Best Actress!

Oscar Breakdown and Handicapping: Best Supporting Actress

This category has not really been competitive in a few years. Octavia Spencer, Melissa Leo, Mo’Nique, and Penelope Cruz were all foregone conclusions after the nominations were announced. This year is no different. Aside from Best Actor and Best Foreign Language Film, this may be the easiest category to predict. Unless there is some flair up gaining steam a la Alan Arkin over Eddie Murphy in 2006, then this category is over.

5. Jacki Weaver – Silver Linings Playbook

Notable awards: none

Notable nominations: none

Case for the Oscar: Clearly, she is the product of the Harvey Weinstein freight train. If Silver Linings Playbook is going to win Best Picture (which I still feel is possible), then she could get swept along with it. She was just nominated two years ago, so clearly she has been able to capture a lot of fans in a relatively short amount of time in American movies. It would be a shock and a little silly if she wins for this movie, but she probably should have won for Animal Kingdom, so maybe this could be a retrospective award. Oh, who am I kidding? She has no shot.

Oscar Doppelganger: Best Actor 2004: Clint Eastwood. After receiving exactly zero mentions throughout awards season, the veteran actor who gave a fairly standard performance gets swept in by the momentum of the film. This surprise should have been the nail in the coffin for all the major categories, but we still thought that it was somewhat of a fluke and didn’t read too far into it.

Odds of winning: 125/1

4. Amy Adams – The Master

Notable awards: Chicago Critics, Los Angeles Critics, National Society of Film Critics

Notable nominations: BAFTA, BFCA, Golden Globes

Case for the Oscar: She has now been nominated 4 times in this category in the last 8 years, so at some point she has got to win one. Paul Thomas Anderson has directed several actors to nominations, making them give performances far against type, but only Daniel Day-Lewis has won. She was very popular with critics, but not so much with the major awards. If the Academy wants to give her an award, this would be a fine performance for it. I just think they are going to continue to make her wait.

Oscar Doppelganger: Best Supporting Actress 1962: Thelma Ritter. I have beaten that comparison to death, but here it is again. The movie stood very little chance in retrospect of making it into the Best Picture lineup, but it was still able to add 3 acting nominations that really were just fillers, since the acting categories had such defined frontrunners in other films. She continued to wait her turn after several nominations in this category, but her turn never came.

Odds of winning: 75/1

3. Helen Hunt – The Sessions

Notable awards: none

Notable nominations: BAFTA, BFCA, Golden Globes, Spirit Awards, SAG

Case for the Oscar: She is in one of the indie hits of the year. She is a past winner and very likable. Her performance has been cited as being one of the more difficult to play of the year, and if the Academy wants an emotional speech from someone who won’t make the audience want to rip their ears off, then this will be the performance that they will go for. They love a comeback story and giving validation wins, so this could be it. She is going to have to take down a monster performance, but due to the very quiet buzz for her film and snubs in the other categories, it seems unlikely.

Oscar Doppelganger: 1995 Best Actor: Richard Dreyfuss. This was a case of an actor who won early and then really chose weaker projects for over a decade before getting serious again. This validation nomination for a film that underperformed in terms of nominations was stuck behind a couple performances that owned awards season.

Odds of winning: 20/1

2. Sally Field – Lincoln

Notable awards: Boston Critics, New York Critics

Notable nominations: BAFTA, BFCA, Golden Globes, SAG

Case for the Oscar: She is a veteran in one of the main Best Picture contenders. She is a past winner, but hasn’t been nominated since her second win in 1984. She has the Oscar scene, and the wife/mother role in a biopic is always a popular one with the Academy. I cannot see her being 3 for 3 at the Oscars, but it is possible that she still has enough fans that she could make it happen. If Lincoln is in for a sweep, then this win would be an early indicator.

Oscar Doppelganger: Best Actor 1976: William Holden. After a couple nominations and one win for one of the generations most popular actors, he had to wait another 24 years before being awarded his next and final nomination for a film that finally gave him another chance to truly show off that talent. He was swept into the category with his immensely popular film, which got several acting nominations and multiple wins, but he really wasn’t in the running. He was really overshadowed by his costars.

Odds of winning: 15/1

1. Anne Hathaway – Les Miserables

Notable awards: BAFTA, BFCA, Golden Globes, SAG

Notable nominations: none

Case for the Oscar: She is currently on a tear, gobbling up every televised award in her way. Her performance is emotional. She sings. She dies. Oscar loves that stuff. The only thing going against her is how bad her speeches are, which probably cost her all that momentum she had back in 2008. It won’t be enough to take her down this year, since the Academy loves musicals so much. When she is not in Oscar movies, she is in terrible movies, which doesn’t help her case, but it is somewhat irrelevant. It would be a downright shocker if her name isn’t called on Oscar night.

Oscar Doppelganger: 1990 Best Supporting Actress: Whoopi Goldberg. She was in a film that really captured an audience, beloved by some, maligned by others. Her performance was the standout, and despite not much of a showing among critics, she won the important precursors and was an obvious choice for the Oscar. Her past nomination is widely considered the best performance of the year, but was overlooked in favor of an overdue veteran. All of that leftover love was definitely still in play.

Odds of winning: 1/20

Past articles:

Original and Adapted Screenplay

Thoughts? Comments? Predictions? Next up: Best Supporting Actor!

Oscar Breakdown and Handicapping: Original and Adapted Screenplay

Over the next two weeks leading up to the Oscars, I am going to do a series breaking down each major categories individually and giving my own Vegas-style odds for each nominee’s chances of winning. Almost all of the relevant awards have taken place, with the exception of the Editing, Sound, Sound Editing, Costume Designers guilds. So if you need help with the OSCAR CHALLENGE, my advice is to just check the winners of those guilds over the next week or so and just go with them. Or just take Life of Pi in every technical category and the odds are that you will do just fine.

As for the screenplay categories, the Writers Guild of America (WGA), while it has the most member crossover with the Academy, there are always like 10 contending screenplays that are ineligible. They cannot fully be trusted, but they are a decent indicator. Their awards take place on Sunday, February 17^th, so some of the odds could be shifted a bit, but they aren’t going to completely shake anything up. All Oscar members vote on the winner, not just the writers. Check out my breakdown of the category below…

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

This category seemed basically decided a couple weeks ago. Now that Argo has steamrolled the competition in every single awards circuit, we have a race. Oh by the way, Silver Linings Playbook took the BAFTA, which has come to mean a lot in the past few years. It feels like the winner of this category will be our Best Picture winner.

5. Beasts of the Southern Wild (Lucy Alibar, Benh Zeitlin)

Notable awards: none

Notable nominations: BAFTA, USC Scripter

Case for the Oscar: The film got so much more love from the AMPAS than was expected. It clearly has its backing from the members, but these types of films do not win in the screenplay categories.

Oscar Doppelganger: Winter’s Bone, 2010. It has a similar pedigree and ultra-indie style film with a Best Picture nom. It had almost no chance of winning in the category due to the heavy favorites in the category.

Odds of winning: 250/1

4. Life of Pi (David Magee)

Notable awards: Satellite

Notable nominations: BAFTA, BFCA, Golden Globes, USC Scripter, WGA

Case for the Oscar: David Magee is a previous nominee (Finding Neverland). His film is pure Oscar bait, and there is a small chance that it could go all the way in several categories. It is not really a screenplay achievement, but if it is going to have a chance in the major categories, then this is probably the least consequential award it could throw its way. I like the film’s chance in Director more than Screenplay.

Oscar Doppelganger: Gladiator, 2000. It was a visual spectacle, yet only a decent achievement in screenplay. It looks and feels like a major Oscar contender, but there are a couple clear frontrunners in the category that prevent it from taking home the screenplay award.

Odds of winning: 80/1

3. Silver Linings Playbook (David O. Russell)

Notable awards: BAFTA, National Board of Review

Notable nominations: BFCA, Golden Globes, Spirit Awards, USC Scripter, WGA

Case for the Oscar: The Weinstein factor is definitely prevalent here. Unless there is an unforeseen sweep for the film, this is its best chance to award David O. Russell for the first time. His speeches and appearances in interviews have been heartfelt and emotional. It is the story of his son, and that connection could pull a lot of votes for him. The material is total Oscar stuff, even more so than the films in front of it. These are the kinds of films that win.

Oscar Doppelganger: Precious, 2009. It was a great surprise on Oscar night when it won the award over the heavy favorite Up in the Air. It was the best chance to award the filmmaking of the indie that was all the talk around awards time but was stuck behind a couple unstoppable forces.

Odds of winning: 4/1

2. Lincoln (Tony Kushner)

Notable awards: Boston Critics, BFCA, Chicago Critics, National Society of Film Critics, New York Critics

Notable nominations: BAFTA, Golden Globes, USC Scripter, WGA

Case for the Oscar: It seemed as if there was no chance that it could lose a couple weeks ago. The screenplay is the movie, almost coming off like a stage play. It is very sophisticated and not really a typical winner, but one that should be awarded for keeping our attention for 150 minutes of dialogue.

Oscar Doppelganger: Good Night , and Good Luck, 2005. The styles are similar, being backboned by the dialogue-heavy script. It pretty much dominated awards season until one film rose up at the last minute and took its award. Lincoln’s chances are slightly better, though.

Odds of winning: 2/1

1. Argo (Chris Terrio)

Notable awards: Los Angeles Critics, USC Scripter

Notable nominations: BAFTA, BFCA, Golden Globes, WGA

Case for the Oscar: It is the overwhelming favorite for the top prize, so unless it is going to be the second film ever to take that without any other wins, then this is its best chance for another award. The script is tight and complex. The Scripter award has correlated with the Oscar every year since 2007. There are easier films to award in contention, and an “upset” would not be all that unexpected. However, at this point (WGA result pending), it is the one to beat.

Oscar Doppelganger: Breaking Away, 1979. This is a bit of a stretch, but what Argo has done is unprecedented and impossible to find a similar case. This is a terrific screenplay that took home the award against several more easily-digestible Oscar movies, including a courtroom drama and a lovable comedy-drama. It is probably the favorite to win, but it is by no means a significant favorite.

Odds of winning: 3/2

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

This category has taken quite a few shifts throughout awards season. Early on, it appeared that Zero Dark Thirty was going to be a slam dunk winner. Django Unchained’s buzz has come and gone and come back again. Amour continues to defy the odds and garner more buzz and accolades. This is always one of the coolest categories at the ceremony.

5. Flight (John Gatins)

Notable awards: none

Notable nominations: BFCA, WGA

Case for the Oscar: This film stands almost no chance of winning. It is a great story, but the script is sort of sloppily-written. It does have some great characters, and the film did really well at the box office. Gatins is an interesting guy, and his roller coaster ride to the Oscar ceremony is really a great story. A win would be one of the biggest shockers in recent memory, but never underestimate the popularity of Denzel Washington.

Oscar Doppelganger: The Color of Money, 1986. This is another commercially-popular movie with a nominated lead performance and directed by a major director. The movie was never really looked at as one of true quality, but it did receive some love from awards. The screenplay nomination is odd and had no chance going in, even though the main contenders were not exactly juggernauts.

Odds of winning: 350/1

4. Moonrise Kingdom (Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola)

Notable awards: none

Notable nominations: BAFTA, BFCA, Spirit Awards, WGA

Case for the Oscar: Wes Anderson movies are always among those films that are so quirky and interesting, yet they just cannot appeal to everyone. This film is his most conventional, which makes me think that this could be the film that the Academy could reward him for. These coming-of-age stories are not too popular in terms of winning screenplays, but the nominations are common. If there is a shock winner in either screenplay category, it could and should be this.

Oscar Doppelganger: Full Metal Jacket, 1987. The movie was made by a master of misunderstood and niche filmmaking. After a host of popular and nominated films, he made his most accessible movie yet. Screenplay was the film’s sole nomination, and while its chances of winning were slim, it may have been the best chance that its writer had at it.

Odds of winning: 50/1

 3. Zero Dark Thirty (Mark Boal)

Notable awards: Chicago Critics, Satellite

Notable nominations: BAFTA, BFCA, Golden Globes, WGA

Case for the Oscar: Mark Boal is a past winner, and there still may be some leftover love for The Hurt Locker. This film is so thickly researched and thrilling, and at least in my eyes, almost all of that credit should be given to Boal. His film missed out on a Best Director bid, which dampens the support for the film a bit. This screenplay is one of the contenders still, and I would not be shocked at all to hear it called on Oscar night.

Oscar Doppelganger: Crimes and Misdemeanors, 1989. After winning the Oscar, a few years later he is again invited to the ceremony with another huge success and brilliant screenplay. All of the main Best Picture contenders were in the Adapted category, so original could have gone to almost anything. The Academy may have wanted the writer to wait a little while for another award.

Odds of winning: 6/1

2. Django Unchained (Quentin Tarantino)

Notable awards: BAFTA, BFCA, Golden Globes

Notable nominations: none

Case for the Oscar: It has been almost 20 years since Tarantino has won his Oscar, despite being perhaps the most popular American filmmaker working today. He was taken down by Mark Boal in 2009, and if he loses this time, then it will be like a Hilary Swank-Annette Bening type of rivalry beginning to brew. Django has the important wins so far, and since it was ineligible at the WGA, he won’t have to worry about losing steam there. Almost any other time, he would be the favorite. There is just one film ahead that has even more support than Tarantino’s blockbuster.

Oscar Doppelganger: As Good As It Gets, 1997. James L. Brooks won his Oscar more than a decade before, and this was his best chance to take home a second for screenwriting. He was up against a film that didn’t really have the awards or expectations as his film, but it had more overall Oscar support and wound up taking home the prize in what had to be an achingly close vote.

Odds of winning: 5/2

1. Amour (Michael Haneke)

Notable awards: none

Notable nominations: BAFTA

Case for the Oscar: Michael Haneke’s films have been revolving around the Oscars for a while now, but this is easily his most accessible movie. The film has nominations in every major category that he could ask for, so we know the support is great. Despite being the no-brainer for Foreign Film, this is the category that the Academy can really show their support for the film and Haneke’s work on it. The other two realistic contenders are past winners, and Haneke got his first nominations this year at age 70. It would seem as if it is his turn.

Oscar Doppelganger: Talk to Her, 2002. If there had been the rules there are now back in 2002, then these cases would be identical. Almodovar’s film was up against a couple highly-touted writers, but his beautiful and heartbreaking film took home the award, the first for a foreign film since 1966. Look for something similar to happen. It may seem like an upset on paper, but given the situation and huge love for Amour, I am almost expecting it.

Odds of winning: 2/1

 

So, what do you think? What are your doppelgangers? Request me other non-Big 8 categories if you need more help with the OSCAR CHALLENGE. Stay tuned in the next couple days for my breakdown of Best Supporting Actress.