Oscar Breakdown and Handicapping: Best Picture

We finally get to the final and most important category. All conventional knowledge would have stated that after the nominations were announced Argo would not be in the running since it lacks the Best Director nomination. Now that it has gobbled up every award in its way, it seems like a shoo-in winner. But then there is the Weinstein push for Silver Linings Playbook. This could get interesting. Check out my final breakdown article of the season…

9. Django Unchained

Notable awards: none

Notable nominations: BFCA, Golden Globes (Drama), PGA

Case for the Oscar: It has a very nice box office. The fact that two straight Tarantino movies have made it into the Best Picture lineup may mean that the Academy is really beginning to accept his style of filmmaking. Until they truly takes him seriously as a director as opposed to just a screenwriter, then his films are going to continue to appeal to that niche market and not really have a shot at winning this award.

Oscar Doppelganger: 1996 Best Picture: Jerry Maguire. The movie was nominated despite missing out on the Best Director nomination. Seeing how his career had gone, the Academy never really took him seriously as a director, only as one of the more likable screenwriters of his time. The movie was somewhat of a box office phenomenon and the director’s highest grossing film, but nobody ever really thought it could win Best Picture.

Odds of winning: 250/1

8. Beasts of the Southern Wild

Notable awards: none

Notable nominations: BFCA, Spirit Awards, PGA

Case for the Oscar: The movie is getting all of the indie enthusiast votes. The major awards love proves that it has a great following, but it is just not a normal Oscar movie. If there had been five nominees, this would have been the strangest Best Director nominee without BP since Blue Velvet. The movie is one that inspires fondness as opposed to amazement, which hurts its chances at winning any awards (or gathering a significant audience, for that matter). The movie is destined to be an also-ran, but its nominations have already defied the odds.

Oscar Doppelganger: 2010 Best Picture: Winter’s Bone. The movie was the indie hit of the year that defied the odds and got invited to the ceremony in several categories. Its chances of winning were never really all that realistic, but being mentioned among the best of the year showed how much the Academy members appreciated its achievement with such a small budget.

Odds of winning: 150/1

7. Amour

Notable awards: Cannes, Los Angeles Critics, National Society of Film Critics

Notable nominations: none

Case for the Oscar: It is the most critically acclaimed movie of the year. There hasn’t been a foreign film in the Best Picture lineup since 2000, so this type of recognition is extremely rare. Everyone who has seen it has marveled over its emotional impact, so if it somehow got enough members to see it, then it actually could finish in the top few films. Winning is not going to happen, but Haneke has certainly put his name at the top of the list of most accessible foreign filmmakers with this superb little film.

Oscar Doppelganger: 1973 Best Picture: Cries and Whispers. The film had deep and depressing themes. The director was probably the most beloved foreign director of his time, and this was his most popular film with the awards circuits. The film was up against more popular Hollywood studio releases, so it never really had a shot at winning, but it certainly shook up the race, becoming one of only 9 foreign language films ever nominated for Best Picture.

Odds of winning: 100/1

6. Zero Dark Thirty

Notable awards: Boston Critics, Chicago Critics, National Board of Review, New York Critics

Notable nominations: BAFTA, Golden Globes (Drama), PGA

Case for the Oscar: For me, this is the best movie of the year. Its controversy is completely off-base, but that will be enough for the members to shy away from voting for the film. They are all about avoiding controversy. The director-writer combo just won all the major awards a few years ago, so that could either help the cause or prevent them from showering them with more awards this soon. Its Best Director snub is ridiculous, but that is pretty telling as to its chances in this category, since the film is clearly a directing spectacle.

Oscar Doppelganger: 1991 Best Picture: JFK. There was controversy the moment the film was announced. The Academy was probably not ready for the film, but they knew it was great and that the technical aspects were spectacular. The Best Picture nomination seemed like a formality for the Oscar-winning filmmakers, but its chances of actually taking Best Picture were very slim.

Odds of winning: 70/1

5. Les Miserables

Notable awards: Golden Globes (Comedy/Musical)

Notable nominations: BAFTA, BFCA, PGA, SAG

Case for the Oscar: The movie was the most Oscar-friendly on paper, but the film underwhelmed everyone but the most devoted Les Mis fans. The Academy snubbed it for Best Director, which showed that the film is not as popular as it could or should have been. It had a very nice box office, however, so if the Academy wants to give the award to a fluff winner, then this would likely be it. There has not been a musical to win this in a decade, so that may help its chances. They cannot resist them sometimes.

Oscar Doppelganger: 2001 Best Picture: Moulin Rouge!. The film was a visual and artistic spectacle, but the experience of watching it was quite frenetic and somewhat of a mess. The film certainly had its fans, but its style turned off enough voters to not have a chance at winning Best Picture.

Odds of winning: 60/1

4. Life of Pi

Notable awards: none

Notable nominations: BAFTA, BFCA, Golden Globes (Drama), PGA

Case for the Oscar: The movie feels the most like an Oscar winner. The material and visual style would certainly take the Oscar back to when these types of epic ambition films won the awards, but it faces the issue of not having any stars in the film. That hasn’t been an issue with Slumdog Millionaire and The Artist, but Life of Pi just didn’t have the widespread love or devoted fans of many of the other contenders. If the Academy wants to play it safe, then this will likely be the winner, which would be the first 3D release Best Picture winner.

Oscar Doppelganger: 2003 Best Picture: Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World. The movie was not the most popular film with the Academy members, but it was an easy choice to give the film several technical nominations and a Best Picture mention. The movie was a visual spectacle and a wondrous experience, but the other contenders were more popular with the public and had more clear Oscar ambitions.

Odds of winning: 50/1

3. Lincoln

Notable awards: none

Notable nominations: BAFTA, BFCA, Golden Globes (Drama), PGA, SAG

Case for the Oscar: When the movie was announced, it would have seemed as if this were the one to beat. It turned out to be extremely talky and perhaps a bit too sophisticated for the Academy. If it were a biopic, then this would have been a much more popular film awards-wise. Its nominations were predictable, but winning would be quite an achievement for a film based so much on dialogue. Those types of films don’t win Best Picture, but most of them are not directed by Spielberg or starring Daniel Day-Lewis.

Oscar Doppelganger: 1994 Best Picture: Quiz Show. (This is mainly because I didn’t want to use Good Night, and Good Luck again…) The dialogue-heavy and important film was a clear Oscar contender from the moment it was announced, but it became more and more clear that it was not the type of film that could actually win big at the Oscars. The film’s director had won before, which made it even clearer that it would be singled out as one of the year’s best. It was Oscar gold on paper, but its style caused it to come up just short.

Odds of winning: 20/1

2. Silver Linings Playbook

Notable awards: Satellite Awards

Notable nominations: BFCA, Golden Globes (Comedy/Musical), Spirit Awards, PGA, SAG

Case for the Oscar: The Weinstein Company are pushing it hard, putting everyone involved in the film on every talk show in the country. It is still making money at the box office, so it is fresh in the minds of the voters. It has the feel-good sob story about the David O. Russell’s son. If he wins, then this will take Best Picture. The mental illness subject matter is the stuff that Oscar loves. This smells like an upset, but Argo just has so much momentum. It will be a close call.

Oscar Doppelganger: 2010 Best Picture: The King’s Speech. The film vastly overachieved at the box office. Weinstein pushed it so hard that it eventually became a serious threat to the obvious frontrunner. It was a very safe choice for the Academy members, who did not want to award a film that was outside of their normal recipient style. It rode the wave of audience popularity all the way to the ceremony. When the film took Best Director, the race was basically over.

Odds of winning: 8/1

1. Argo

Notable awards: BAFTA, BFCA, Golden Globes (Drama), PGA, SAG

Notable nominations: none

Case for the Oscar: It has taken every important award this season. George Clooney is the main producer, so that brings another element to its frontrunner status. The movie is a very Hollywood/LA movie, just like Crash was when it won over the Academy late in the game. It is also a very American movie, which the Academy may need after 3 of the last 4 years giving this award to films like Slumdog, The Artist, and The King’s Speech. Everyone feels bad for Ben Affleck, so this award is the one way that they can award his extraordinary work on the film. Unless the Weinstein money impacts the voting, then this will be our winner.

Oscar Doppelganger: 1981 Best Picture: Chariots of Fire. There really is no film that can be compared to what Argo has gone through. With Chariots of Fire, there were other Oscar contenders on paper that underachieved throughout the awards season. This movie was never going to win Best Director, but its status as the Best Picture frontrunner over blockbuster films was pretty clear. It wasn’t the most popular film with audiences, but it was a solid and easy choice for the Academy, one that may not be one of their better choices, but one that was a breath of fresh air during a time when most of the other Best Picture winners were all very forgettable and typical.

Odds of winning: 1/10

Previous articles:

Best Director

Best Actor

Best Actress

Best Supporting Actor

Best Supporting Actress

Best Original and Adapted Screenplays

Thoughts? Comments? Predictions? If you haven’t already, turn in your votes for the OSCAR CHALLENGE!

Oscar Breakdown and Handicapping: Best Director

Aside from Supporting Actor, this is the one category that is impossible to get a read on. It is simply unprecedented what this category has gone through with the obvious favorite Ben Affleck getting one of the most egregious snubs in Academy history. Affleck has been cleaning up every precursor that means anything. We have two former winners in this category, a past nominee, a first time director, and a foreign director finally breaking through to the mainstream. This is the category to watch.

5. Benh Zeitlin – Beasts of the Southern Wild

Notable awards: none

Notable nominations: Spirit Awards

Case for the Oscar: This is one of the stranger nominees in recent memory. The movie was a modest indie hit at best, but it was a very popular critic movie. Its buzz was very quiet until it somehow jumped into all of the important categories at the Oscars. Zeitlin is a newcomer, and while his direction and film are commendable, he has a very slim chance at making a run at the award. Not enough people saw the film during its June release.

Oscar Doppelganger: 2000 Best Director: Stephen Daldry. He had an astonishing directorial debut that really captured an audience and rode it popularity all the way to the ceremony. Being up against all major directors made it a foregone conclusion that he was not going to take home the Oscar, but his nomination was an expression of the love that the members had for his directing efforts, which put him on the fast track toward a potentially big career.

Odds of winning: 100/1

4. Michael Haneke – Amour

Notable awards: National Society of Film Critics

Notable nominations: BAFTA

Case for the Oscar: He certainly has an uphill battle to winning the Oscar, but the massive love for his film has put him right in contention. With the Best Picture favorite not nominated in this category, this could be the spot that the Academy may want to honor this tremendously popular film. He also has his screenplay in contention, which would be a lesser award to give him, but Haneke is certainly going to shake some things up. His chances are as good as any, and honestly, his direction might be the best of the nominated films. Without having to give a predetermined award to Ben Affleck (which would have been deserved), this may finally be the year that we can see a real directorial achievement take the award, not just the most popular film’s director.

Oscar Doppelganger: 2002 Best Director: Pedro Almodovar. The directing category was a very wide open race going in, yet everyone underestimated the popularity of the foreign film and director that broke through into the major categories. The Academy had their choice of acknowledging his achievement here or in the screenplay category. Since the directing lineup was much more star-studded, he just missed out on winning, but certainly had a terrific chance at it going in.

Odds of winning: 6/1

3. Ang Lee – Life of Pi

Notable awards: none

Notable nominations: BAFTA, BFCA, DGA, Golden Globes

Case for the Oscar: His direction is huge. It is like the Avatar of this year, a direction that under the hands of a less creative director would have tanked. He brought together all of the amazing visuals, photography, and sound to create a beautiful experience. His film is a total Oscar movie, and this is the only real chance that the Academy will get to recognize it in a major category. While the film somewhat underwhelmed at the box office despite its incredible ambition, his direction is a marvel. He is certainly not the favorite, but he is just looming in the weeds, waiting to win his second Oscar.

Oscar Doppelganger: 1956 Best Director: George Stevens. His film was warmly received by many critics and awards circuits, but it was never the frontrunner. While the other films were equally Oscar friendly, his film was just so large in scope and beauty that it was hard to not recognize his achievement in this category. He had won in this category less than a decade before, and there was probably still some leftover love from his previous venture and frustration over it not winning Best Picture.

Odds of winning: 3/1

2. David O. Russell – Silver Linings Playbook

Notable awards: Satellite

Notable nominations: BFCA, Spirit Awards

Case for the Oscar: His film has the Weinstein backing, and he is becoming one of the more well-liked people in the industry. The Fighter had a ton of fans, so this could be a delayed award to throw his way. His film is still ripping up the box office, and while it is not the most complex direction, he is the helmer of the crowd-pleaser of the year. He has the sob story about how the movie being about his son, so he will certainly be a sentimental favorite at the ceremony. If he wins this, then his film could challenge Argo for Best Picture. If he doesn’t win for his screenplay, this could be the spot to give him his first Oscar.

Oscar Doppelganger: 2009 Best Director: Jason Reitman: At one point, he was clearly the frontrunner in multiple categories. He wound up getting stuck behind a somewhat confusingly popular awards film that didn’t exactly tear up the box office. His film captured a wide audience, and he rode the sweet comedy-drama all the way to a nomination, his second in 3 years. He had an outside shot at taking home the prize, but there were a couple huge favorites that prevented him from winning it for a film that wasn’t exactly a directing showcase. His real chance was in the screenplay category.

Odds of winning: 3/2

1. Steven Spielberg – Lincoln

Notable awards: none

Notable nominations: BFCA, DGA, Golden Globes

Case for the Oscar: He is still one of the most popular directors in the world. Every movie he makes is an event, and to turn that talky script into the engrossing drama that he did is absolutely one of the finer efforts of the year. His film is not going to take Best Picture, so like in 1998, they may want to throw Spielberg another bone. The problem he faces is that he is nowhere near as much of a shoo-in as he used to be. Like Clint Eastwood, the Academy may be getting somewhat tired of him. He was not nominated for War Horse, and Lincoln is Oscar gold on paper, but his film is getting taken to the woodshed by Argo. His chances to win this Oscar are still overwhelmingly good because he is Spielberg, but there are 3 other major contenders who could take it, just because we don’t know how they are going to handle the category without Affleck.

Oscar Doppelganger: 1989 Best Director: Oliver Stone. He was a previous winner, and while his film was never really a serious Best Picture threat, his direction was superb. The inevitable Best Picture winner received a rare snub in this category, so it was somewhat wide open going in. Up against some serious talent, the biggest name ended up winning out.

Odds of winning: 1/2

Past articles:

Best Actor

Best Actress

Best Supporting Actor

Best Supporting Actress

Best Original and Adapted Screenplays

Comments? Thoughts on this crazy Best Director race? Coming up tomorrow: Best Picture!

Oscar Breakdown and Handicapping: Best Actor

With the exception of last year and (sort of) 2008, when we at least had a two horse race for the award, this category has been uncompetitive since 2003. This year is no different. Check out the contenders’ cases for winning and their overall odds below…

5. Denzel Washington – Flight

Notable awards: none

Notable nominations: BFCA, Golden Globes, SAG

Case for the Oscar: This was an obvious nominee, but there is just no chance that he is winning this. His role called for a much different side of Washington than we are used to seeing, but the movie was a bit ridiculous and went too light when it could have really dug into the character study elements that would have left Washington with no choice but to bring it. It is a fine performance, but the other contenders have much stronger cases. Even though he is one of the most popular actors in the world, I cannot see him getting a third before Day-Lewis gets his third.

Oscar Doppelganger: 1991 Best Actor: Robert De Niro. This was a commercially popular film that got solid reviews, yet there was a portion of audiences that hated it. The nomination here was an easy choice, but going up against a juggernaut and having no real signature wins throughout awards season caused the universally popular two-time winner to have no real chance going into the ceremony. His nomination was his reward.

Odds of winning: 150/1

4. Joaquin Phoenix – The Master

Notable awards: Los Angeles Critics

Notable nominations: BAFTA, BFCA, Golden Globes

Case for the Oscar: He gave the best performance of the year. His role is filled with Oscar scenes. He pushed himself further in this role than anyone did in 2012. However, his movie did was not a hit with the Academy. He expressed his hatred for the entire awards process. He gave a 2 hour middle finger to Hollywood with I’m Still Here. If the Academy is being honest, then Phoenix will win. They won’t, so he won’t.

Oscar Doppelganger: 2011 Best Actress: Rooney Mara. The movie was well-received from critics and from a portion of audiences. She missed out on the SAG nomination, causing many people to doubt her chances at the Oscar nom. The Academy wound up having enough people who are still trying to awarding the best achievements in film, so the nomination came. Going up against a legend and a couple more performances in much more popular films restricted her from taking home her Oscar.

Odds of winning: 75/1

3. Hugh Jackman – Les Miserables

Notable awards: Golden Globes (Comedy/Musical)

Notable nominations: BAFTA, BFCA, SAG

Case for the Oscar: He is a very popular guy. He has even hosted the show, which was fairly well-received. That one moron lady one the Oscar nominations telecast called it “probably the most mind-blowing performance I have ever seen”. So, even though his singing is really awkward, he clearly captured a wide audience. Missing out on the Directing and Screenplay categories shows that the film is not as popular as it should have been on paper, but his performance has been singled out as being one of the year’s best. It is hard to imagine him winning an Oscar, considering he has never really been in a good movie outside of the first two X-Men flicks, but role is just so much Oscar bait that if they are not going to give DDL his third, then this has about as good of a chance as anyone.

Oscar Doppelganger: 1966 Best Actor: Steve McQueen. A bit of a strange comparison, I know. He was one of the more popular actors around. He had several better roles, but this effortless role in an Oscar movie is the one that broke him through to get his only nomination. He probably got a fair amount of votes, but the winner was obvious and predetermined.

Odds of winning: 50/1

2. Bradley Cooper – Silver Linings Playbook

Notable awards: National Board of Review

Notable nominations: BAFTA, BFCA, Golden Globes (Comedy/Musical), Spirit Awards, SAG

Case for the Oscar: He is a rising star, and this role proved to all of the skeptics that he actually can act. He is in the favorite of the acting branch of the Academy, which is the largest portion of the population. The movie could be a surprise winner for the major awards, which just might be enough to sweep in its star to officially start the career of a future megastar and leading man in Hollywood for the next several decades.

Oscar Doppelganger: 1989 Best Actor: Tom Cruise. He had already won over audiences with his box office hits, but playing against type for one of the more respected directors of his time brought him his first, well-deserved Oscar nom. His film was one of the favorites for the top prizes, and despite the presence of the obvious favorite Daniel Day-Lewis, he was able to win over audiences and change everyone’s opinion about him. This nomination essentially started the career of one of the biggest stars we have ever seen.

Odds of winning: 30/1

1. Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln

Notable awards: BAFTA, Boston Critics, BFCA, Chicago Critics, Golden Globes (Drama), National Society of Film Critics, New York Critics, SAG

Notable nominations: none

Case for the Oscar: He is going to win again. It is incredible to think about his career, which essentially started a couple years before his Oscar win in 1989. He has only made 10 films since then, including this, his third Oscar win. He never really seems to wear on audiences or voters either. Watching him accept the awards on stage, it just seems like we are watching a walking legend, one so quiet and reserved that it is unbelievable that he turned into Bill the Butcher, Christy Brown, and Daniel Plainview. This role basically decided won him the Oscar the moment the poster came out. He then managed to blow everyone away and exceed expectations. This award is one of the 2 or 3 biggest locks of the year. It is difficult to compare anyone to DDL, since no one has ever won 3 Best Actor awards, let alone winning 3 times in an 11 film span. We should all just sit back and enjoy his career while it lasts and eagerly await the announcement of his next project.

Oscar Doppelganger: 2007 Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis. He was the favorite the moment the trailer came out. He dominated awards season, with the exception of losing the first one, the National Board of Review. His film was nominated in all the right places but was probably never going to win in any of them except for lead actor.

Odds of winning: 1/50

Previous articles:

Best Actress

Best Supporting Actor

Best Supporting Actress

Best Original and Adapted Screenplays

Thoughts? Comments? Coming soon: Best Director!

Oscar Breakdown and Handicapping: Best Actress

A couple months ago, this one seemed to be all but over. Jennifer Lawrence is a superstar, and it appeared that there was no one who could touch her. Now, after the rise of Jessica Chastain and a late push for the sublime Emmanuelle Riva, we have a tough three-actress race. Check out the breakdown below…

5. Naomi Watts – The Impossible

Notable awards: none

Notable nominations: BFCA, Golden Globes, SAG

Case for the Oscar: She was in a movie that had everything going for it, but the controversy surrounding her story restricted its box office. It is ridiculous that this is only her second nomination, but she will have to continue to wait for her day. The nomination is her reward.

Oscar Doppelganger: 2010 Best Actress: Nicole Kidman. The film was not the biggest hit, but the performance was a powerhouse that secured an easy nomination. She was popular worldwide, yet she missed out on nominations on several occasions. She stood very little chance at winning, not just because of the tough subject matter, but because of the incredible performances ahead of her in much more warmly-received films.

Odds of winning: 200/1

4. Quvenzhane Wallis – Beasts of the Southern Wild

Notable awards: none

Notable nominations: BFCA, Spirit Awards

Case for the Oscar: She was ineligible for the SAG, so we do not quite know what her support actually looks like. The film clearly has its following, so if there is an award in its future, why not this one? She is going to need to tackle some huge contenders (including one some 80 years her senior), but I wouldn’t put it past the Academy. It has very little chance of happening, but a three-way vote split would not exactly be unheard of, resulting in those big Beasts fans creating quite a stir in this race. Too bad we don’t get to see the final voting results…

Oscar Doppelganger: Gabourey Sidibe – Precious. In her first career performance, she absolutely blew away every audience member that sought out her film. The indie film vastly overachieved in terms of nominations,which expressed the deep-seeded love for the film overall. She gave one of the more impressive debuts we have seen in a long time, but her chances of actually winning were slim due to the other contenders.

Odds of winning: 75/1

3. Emmanuelle Riva – Amour

Notable awards: BAFTA, Boston Critics, Los Angeles Critics (tie), National Society of Film Critics

Notable nominations: BFCA

Case for the Oscar: The older voters will remember her early work in Hiroshima, mon amour. This is her first nomination, and the Oscar ceremony will be on her 86^th birthday (she was born in 1927, the year the first Oscar winner was released). The film has all of the important nominations in the major categories. Oh, and she may have given the best performance of the bunch. The theatrical release has expanded in the past couple weeks, ensuring that her heartbreaking performance is fresh on the Academy members’ minds when voting ends. She is up against two juggernauts, but honestly, their careers basically just started a couple years ago. This is the only time they will ever get to reward this actress.

Oscar Doppelganger: Best Actor 1999: Richard Farnsworth. He was one of those faces that audiences may recognize, but not really know what from. He had the cool story of making an appearance in Gone with the Wind exactly 60 years before the ceremony. His performance was endearing and heartfelt, and that certainly struck a chord with the Academy members, even though the film was not exactly widely-seen.

Odds of winning: 3/1

2. Jessica Chastain – Zero Dark Thirty

Notable awards: BFCA, Chicago Critics, Golden Globes (Drama), National Board of Review

Notable nominations: BAFTA, SAG

Case for the Oscar: She is in a film that, perhaps for the wrong reasons, has been in the spotlight since its inception. If the Academy wants to award the movie, it will and should be for this performance. Her rise to stardom has been as sudden as any that I have ever seen, and she deserves to win. She won the important Critics Choice award, as well as getting the most important precursor mentions. She completely steps out of her comfort zone with this film, playing about as polar opposite from her role in The Help as possible. It may not exactly be a typical winner, but getting some comparisons to Jodie Foster in The Silence of the Lambs says something.

Oscar Doppelganger: 2005 Best Actress: Reese Witherspoon. She won all of the important precursors, yet had the odd case of almost never really competing against the other major contender, due to the fact that it was an indie and in the opposite Golden Globe category. It was not a normal Oscar winner and the film was underwhelming in terms of nominations, but she rode her popularity all the way to the Oscar.

Odds of winning: 9/4

1. Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook

Notable awards: Golden Globes (Comedy/Musical), Los Angeles Critics (tie), Satellite Award, SAG

Notable nominations: BAFTA, BFCA, Spirit Awards (will win)

Case for the Oscar: She has the backing of the Weinsteins. Her film continues to place among the top of the box office week after week leading up to the Oscar ballots being due. She was hilarious when she hosted “Saturday Night Live”, and each one of her acceptance speeches has been genuine, something rare for someone so new to the ceremonies. Her performance is one that wins Oscars, and the only thing that may be going against her is that she is only 22, so she has many years ahead of her before she even hits her prime. They may want to make her wait, giving the award to one of the two contenders who have been at it for several years. She is the favorite, but it is by no means a secure favorite. Her SAG win was important, and her film getting 4 acting noms is telling. Doubt going 0 for 4 was a joke, and the Academy will not want to do that again.

Oscar Doppelganger: 2011 Best Actor: Jean Dujardin. He had the advantage of not competing against the other contender for the majority of the season. He had the Weinstein backing. His film was all over the major awards, vastly overachieving given its small budget and ambition. He was the favorite going into the ceremony, but by no means an overwhelming one. He was a relative newcomer, yet his performance was just so impressive that the Academy just could not resist (or say “no” to Harvey).

Odds of winning: EVEN

Previous articles:

Best Original and Adapted Screenplay

Best Supporting Actress

Best Supporting Actor

Thoughts? Comments? Coming up: BEST ACTOR!

Oscar Breakdown and Handicapping: Best Supporting Actor

This is the most wide open category of this year and of the past few years. The awards have been splitting up between a few actors. The SAG went to one, the Critic’s Choice went to one, the Golden Globe and BAFTA went to another. We have all previous winners. To me, this category somewhat mirrors 2007 Supporting Actress. Nobody can really predict this topsy-turvy race. Sadly, due to the format of the Oscars, this will be the first award given. At least we can start out on a good note. Check it out…

5. Alan Arkin – Argo

Notable awards: none

Notable nominations: BAFTA, BFCA, Golden Globes, SAG

Case for the Oscar: Honestly, this is the only one of the nominees that stands no chance at winning. He is just a throw-away nomination that is along for the ride. That is not to say he is undeserving of his nomination, but a win would be more than a little ridiculous. His nomination is just a testament to how much the industry respects his character work.

Oscar Doppelganger: 2011 Best Supporting Actor: Jonah Hill. He was in one of the most popular Best Picture nominees box office-wise, and his performance was noticed by each award show, while never standing a chance at taking any of them. His scene-stealing effort was commendable, but not awards stuff. His nomination was his reward.

Odds of winning: 100/1

4. Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Master

Notable awards: BFCA, Chicago Critics

Notable nominations: BAFTA, Golden Globes, SAG

Case for the Oscar: He was the critic darling in the category, which doesn’t always lead to Oscar gold. If one of the film’s 3 acting nominations is going to take home the award, he stands the best chance. He was borderline lead, which helps him against the nominees with much shorter screentime. He is one of the most respected actors in the world, which the Academy may want to reinforce by giving him a second Oscar in 7 years. He had the most difficult role of the bunch, and he nailed ever nuance of his volatile character. If the Academy doesn’t hate The Master as much as it appears that they did, then this will be our winner.

Oscar Doppelganger: 2002 Best Actor: Jack Nicholson. He was the critical favorite throughout the season, but the film underwhelmed in its nominations count, only garnering acting nods. He had won less than a decade prior, which perhaps made some voters reluctant to give another award to him so soon. He made a strong push for the Oscar against a host of former winners but came up just short.e our winner. ever nuance of his volatile character.er ion was his reward.

Odds of winning: 6/1

3. Robert De Niro – Silver Linings Playbook

Notable awards: none

Notable nominations: BFCA, SAG

Case for the Oscar: He hasn’t had that signature moment at all this awards season, but he is still right there in the running. There are so many members of the Academy that grew up watching De Niro and idolize him. His first nomination in over 20 years is the perfect chance for all of those members to finally express their appreciation for his career and heartfelt performance in the Weinstein awards train. His performance is not as showy or scene-stealing as any of the other 4 nominees, but his name and movie’s popularity will carry him into serious contention. If the Academy wants to go with Chastain or Riva for Best Actress, then this will be the easiest way to award Silver Linings Playbook.

Oscar Doppelganger: 1974 Best Supporting Actor: Fred Astaire. More than 30 years past his prime, the ever-popular actor got one last great supporting role and made a serious run at the Oscar. He still had a ton of fans, and while it would have been an acceptable win, it would be looked back on as a win with an agenda, throwing one last bone to one of the all time greats.

Odds of winning: 11/2

2. Christoph Waltz – Django Unchained

Notable awards: BAFTA, Golden Globes

Notable nominations: none

Case for the Oscar: His role is the most perfectly-written of the year. He is the main character in the movie, giving him much more time to show off. He just won in 2009, but there still may be some leftover love for one of the greatest character performances in recent memory. The two televised wins certainly help his case, despite receiving a strange SAG snub. Critics have called him the best character actor in the world, so when all of these other performances are more understated, one big beautiful showy performance could be the one to get the gold.

Oscar Doppelganger: 1993 Best Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones. A couple years removed from a very popular character performance in one of the Best Picture contenders, he was nominated again for a lead performance in the supporting category. Some may argue that it was too effortless, but nobody could deny his importance to the story and his scene-stealing ability. His win is seen as a bizarre choice in retrospect, but one that is really hard to take issue with given the actor and popularity of the film.

Odds of winning: 10/3

1. Tommy Lee Jones – Lincoln

Notable awards: SAG

Notable nominations: BAFTA, BFCA, Golden Globes

Case for the Oscar: He is in one of the Best Picture frontrunners. He has the very patriotic role in the movie, garnering the biggest reaction from the audience. He effortlessly steals several scenes, and he is an actor that the industry loves. He is in a film with other acting nominees, which could take away some votes if they want to spread the wealth. He won almost 20 years ago, so they may want to give him a second Oscar before actors who have won in the last 10 years. He looked…uh…less than thrilled to be at Golden Globes without winning, but the odds are that he will not have to suffer through that at the Oscars. Or he could just take off early like Eddie Murphy in ’06.

Oscar Doppelganger: 2004 Best Supporting Actor: Morgan Freeman. He was not really represented well in the critic awards, but he morphed into the frontrunner after several nominations and important mentions during the award season. He was one of the most respected actors out there, and the Academy was running out of legitimate chances to reward him. He got swept in with the popularity of the well-acted Best Picture contender, and won over a terrific group of nominees.

Odds of winning: 3/1

Previous articles:

Best Original and Adapted Screenplay

Best Supporting Actress

Thoughts? Comments? Coming up: Best Actress!