Top Ten Unluckiest Teams in NFL History

            Every major fan base in sports likes to think of themselves as unlucky.  Some fan bases, such as the Minnesota Vikings and the Cleveland Browns, have much more legitimacy when making this argument than, say, fans of the Yankees or the Heat (the closest things to heartbreak either of those franchises have experienced were the 2004 ALCS and the 2005 Eastern Conference Finals, respectively; don’t fret though, they’ve won championships in the meantime). 

            I think it’s easier to be “unlucky” in pro football than in the other major sports for a number of reasons.  First, individual injuries are more costly in football given the degree of specialty for each position and difficulty of replacement (as well as the fact that typically 25-30 players participate in a given game, meaning that the possibility of injury is much higher).  Second, unlike in baseball and basketball, NFL teams do not play every other team over the course of a season; therefore, it is possible for a team such as the 2010 Chiefs to get lucky, play in an easy division, and beat only one team with double-digit wins all season.  In contrast, teams such as the 2010 Bills (see #3 on this list) could get the short end of the stick schedule-wise through no real fault of their own. 

Finally, it is more difficult to make the playoffs in the NFL.  Only 12 teams out of 32 – 37.5 percent – do so, which is lower than the NBA and NHL, each at 53.3 percent.  And although only one-third of all MLB teams earn playoff berths, MLB clubs have 162 games at their disposal to make a postseason run; NFL teams have less than one-tenth of that.  In other words, the result of one NFL game has more significance than ten MLB games.  Similarly, it is not uncommon to see a 10-win NFL team (with a winning percentage of .625) miss the postseason because of unusually high competition at the top of the standings.  An MLB team would have to win over 101 games to surpass a .625 winning percentage, and not since the infamous 1993 Giants, winners of 103 games, has an MLB team missed the playoffs with that amount of victories.

            The following list counts down the top ten unluckiest NFL teams since the league adopted a 16-game schedule in 1978.  “Unluckiness” is weighed on a 1-10 scale in the three categories roughly mirroring what I described above: Injuries, schedule, and competitiveness at the top of the standings.  In addition, it is important to weigh context as an additional component of unluckiness.  Sure, the 2010 Giants were a 10-win team that finished in the top seven in both offense and defense and missed the playoffs thanks to DeSean Jackson – but can we really call this bad luck when the next season New York won the Super Bowl with only 9 regular season wins?  Vikings and Browns fans, nod your heads and say it with me: It’s not bad luck when your team wins the championship in the next few seasons (the 1991 49ers and 2002 Patriots also miss the list for that reason). Like I said at the beginning, every fan base can look back and point to specific moments where their team could not get a break – but the sad reality for sports fans is, that is true for all fan bases.  Well, except the Steelers.

            (Oh, and Vikings and Browns fans?  Sorry, I couldn’t fit your teams on this list.  Better luck next time.)

Honorable Mention: 2005 New England Patriots, 2006 New England Patriots, 2007 New England Patriots, 2010 New England Patriots, 2012 New England Patriots, probably the 2013 New England Patriots.

Honorable Mention (for reals): 1979 Washington Redskins, 1988 New Orleans Saints, 1989 Cincinnati Bengals, 1999 New York Jets, 2010 San Diego Chargers.

Special Honorable mention:

1989 San Diego Chargers 

Record: 6-10

Record in close games (+/- 7 points): 4-9

Injuries: 7/10

Schedule: 7/10

Competition at the top: 6/10

For most of the 1980s in SanDiego, fans wondered when the Chargers would finally spend time recruiting quality defensive players.  Fans ogled at the possibilities of how dominant Air Coryell and Dan Fouts could be saddled alongside a good defense.  That year finally arrived in 1989, when the Bolts finished in the top ten in defense for the first time in ten seasons.  Behind the fearsome pass rush of Lee Williams and Burt Grossman, San Diego led the AFC in sacks and finished second in the AFC in interceptions.  After Week Two, the Chargers did not allow a single opponent to score over 20 points.  Sadly, however, Dan Fouts had retired two years too soon and the Chargers QB situation was a mess, with Jim McMahon getting benched and Billy Joe Tolliver completing under 50 percent of his passes.  Even worse, RB Gary Anderson, a breakout player with over 1,100 yards in 1988, was a holdout all season.  But most devastating of all was the Chargers’ performance in close games, becoming only the second team in NFL history to lose nine games by seven points or fewer (no team has ever lost ten games).  They actually played well against quality opponents – five of their six victories came against teams finishing .500 or above – but the offense could never sustain a consistent threat.  Only one player, Pro Bowl receiver Anthony Miller, had more than 31 catches.  Fortunately for San Diego, they would recover . . . to make another appearance on this list.

10. 2003 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Record: 7-9 (missed playoffs)

Record in close games (+/- 7 points): 2-7

Injuries: 8/10

Schedule: 6/10

Competition at the top: 6/10

If this list was based purely on an “eyesight” test, the 2003 Buccaneers would probably be the #1 most unlucky team ever.  I remember this team.  I remember that they pretty much returned everyone from Tampa Bay’s Super Bowl team one year earlier (minus Super Bowl 37 MVP Dexter Jackson).  I remember that week after week, the Bucs couldn’t pull it out in close games – to an almost laughable extent.  It was the first time they had missed the playoffs since 1998.  Things started out great Week 1, when they destroyed their NFC foe Eagles 17-0 in Philadelphia in front of Sylvester Stallone and a national audience.  But after that, the pirate ship began to sink.  Martin Gramatica missed an extra point (his only miss of the season) that would have given them a 10-9 win over Carolina; instead, they lost 12-9 in OT.  They led the Colts 35-14 with five minutes left to go; instead, Peyton Manning became the first quarterback ever to lead his team from 21 downwith under five minutes left.  They gave up game-winning drives to Aaron Brooks and Brett Favre, and couldn’t convert a two-point conversion to send the Falcons to overtime.  Time after time, the Buccaneers fell apart in the fourth quarter in spite of an offense that improved statistically from the year before and a defense that still ranked fourth in the league (and first in rushing TD allowed).  Injuries to Mike Alstott, Brian Kelly, and Greg Spires wreaked havoc, and Keyshawn Johnson’s tension with the coaching staff led to the team trading him to the Cowboys.  But as much as you can blame the 2003 season on dysfunction and injuries, the fact still remains that the Buccaneers were an extremely talented team that got the poor end of the stick.

9. 2004 Carolina Panthers

Record: 7-9 (missed playoffs)

Record in close games (+/- 7 points): 1-5

Injuries: 9/10

Schedule: 6/10

Competition at the top: 6/10

Like the Buccaneers, the Panthers followed their Super Bowl season with a disappointing 7-9 campaign that left lots of fans scratching their heads.  But unlike the Buccaneers, who had only mild to moderate injuries, Carolina head coaches would have been wise to permanently leave gurneys on the field each week.  This was a team completely decimated by injuries, early and often:  Stephen Davis, DeShaun Foster, Steve Smith, Kris Jenkins, Rod Smart, and even K John Kasay, to name a few.  After a 1-7 start (featuring five straight losses to playoff teams), an undrafted RB named Nick Goings stepped up and resurrected a depleted running game.  Then, the JakeDelhomme-to-Muhsin Muhammad connection began to heat up, and suddenly the offense was resurrected, averaging over 28 points per game in the season’s second half.  The defense answered, and ended up leading the NFL in interceptions.  The Panthers won five straight, but fell short of a winning season with a pair of hard-fought three point losses to the Falcons and Saints.  One more victory would have given Carolina a playoff berth (in 2004, the 8-8 Rams and 8-8 Vikings made the playoffs and each won a game).  Given that the ’04 Panthers were wedged between two talented, healthy Carolina teams that made NFC Championship appearances, bitter fans were left wondering what could have been had all the injuries been less severe.

                              

8. 1985 Denver Broncos

Record: 11-5 (missed playoffs)

Record in close games (+/- 7 points): 6-4

Injuries: 5/10

Schedule: 7/10

Competition at the top: 10/10

The 1985 Broncos became the first team in NFL history (but not the last) to win 11 games and miss the playoffs.  They remain the only team ever to have the unusual distinction that, had they won one more game, not only would they have clinched the playoffs, but the Broncos would have been the 1 seed.  Denver sealed this fate by losing two crucial overtime games to the Raiders (who finished 12-4) in a span of three weeks in early December.  Still, it was an immensely successful season by any standard, which may have made the lack of postseason all the more painful for Broncos fans.  John Elway had his finest season up to that point, compensating for a lack of consistent running game.  In spite of the 11 victories, the Broncos lost out on the playoffs due to tiebreakers against the Jets (who didn’t win a playoff game) and the Patriots (who marched through the AFC before being destroyed by the Bears in the Super Bowl).  In a cruel twist of fate, the Broncos did not get an opportunity to break those tiebreakers by playing either of those teams during the regular season, thus being perhaps the only team on this list to suffer because of a schedule which was too easy.  I can understand Broncos fans who would want to see this time higher on the list – I mean, 11-5 and no playoffs? – but let’s remember, the Broncos would make three Super Bowls in the next five years (with considerable good luck throughout), John Elway would finish his career with two rings, and even had the ’85 Broncos made the playoffs, they still would have been no match for the Monsters of the Midway.

7. 1993 Miami Dolphins

Record: 9-7 (missed playoffs)

Record in close games (+/- 7 points): 5-3

Injuries: 9/10

Schedule: 7/10

Competition at the top: 6/10

The 1993 Dolphins are remembered as the only team in NFL history to begin a season 9-2 and somehow miss the postseason.  There is a tendency to conflate self-destruction and bad luck, but in the case of Miami, both were readily apparent.  In the season where Don Shula won his 300^th game and became the all-time winningest NFL coach, the Dolphins looked in Super Bowl form in mid-season, with Dan Marino enjoying a superb season.  In Week 5, however, Marino tore his Achilles’ tendon and was gone for the remainder of the season.  His replacement, Scott Mitchell, played equally well, earning the NFL’s Player of the Month for October.  But then he was injured, and the Dolphins were forced to turn to 39-year-old Steve DeBerg to throw the ball to newly acquired $4.2 million receiver Irving Fryar.  With a 9-2 record entering December, all Miami needed was one win to clinch a playoff berth.  Instead, they promptly lost three straight home games, gave up 45 points to a Chargers team which had 10 games where they scored under 18 points.  All they needed to do was beat the 4-11 Patriots, and Scott Mitchell was returning.  Inevitably, they lost the game in OT.  In spite of the QB injuries, the Dolphins still led the league in passing yards and finished second in total offense.  Before Thanksgiving, they hadn’t turned the ball over more than twice in a single game; beginning Thanksgiving, they had five games of 3 or more turnovers.  What makes the 1993 Dolphins victims of bad luck more than simply a collapse was that 1993 was the only season where Marino missed significant playing time due to injury.  It was also one of only three years in the 1990s where Miami missed the playoffs and the only such year where they had a winning record.

6. 2012 Detroit Lions

Record: 4-12 (missed playoffs)

Record in close games (+/- 7 points): 3-8

Injuries: 7/10

Schedule: 9/10

Competition at the top: 6/10

The other day I read a stat about the 2012 Lions that was mind-boggling: Calvin Johnson had six catches where he was tackled at the 1 yard line.  That would explain Johnson’s 1,964 receiving yards . . . and only five touchdowns.  That, in a nutshell, describes the 2012 Lions season.  Detroit actually gained more total yards and allowed fewer yards than they had in their 10-win 2011 campaign; but close games was another story.  Where they had gone 5-3 in close games the year before, that number fell to a horrible 3-8 in 2012.  Among the most humiliating losses included a 44-41 loss to the Titans where Jim Schwartz opted to go for a fourth down instead of kicking a makeable game-tying field goal; a loss to the Bears where the mighty Lions offense couldn’t muster a single point in the game’s first 59 minutes; and a 12-point lead with under 3 minutes left blown to Andrew Luck on the game’s final play.  Detroit outgained opponents in total yards in 12 of its 16 games, but injuries and turnovers wreaked havoc.  In addition, the Lions faced 11 opponents with 10+ wins, including one stretch of five straight games against playoff teams.  I have not found any team in NFL history that played 11 or more such games.  Is this enough evidence to suggest the Lions should be vastly improved in 2013 if four or five of those close games swing the other way?  I think so, especially if Fairley can stay health and a permanent running game can be established.

5. 2005 San Diego Chargers

Record: 9-7 (missed playoffs)

Record in close games (+/- 7 points): 2-5

Injuries: 7/10

Schedule: 8/10

Competition at the top: 8/10

Coming off a 2004 campaign in which they were the league’s Cinderella, the Chargers had the league’s toughest schedule in 2005, playing 11 games against teams with winning records.  Unlike many teams on this list, however, the Chargers played exceptionally well against the league’s best teams.  They annihilated the defending champion Patriots by a score of 41-17 (!) in Foxboro.  They beat Eli Manning and the NFC East champion Giants by 22.  They went on the road to Indianapolis and handed the 13-0 Colts their first loss of the season.  Drew Brees, LaDanian Tomlinson, and Antonio Gates were in the primes of their careers (ages 26, 26, and 25, respectively) and rookie LB Shawne Merriman won Defensive Rookie of the Year.  It was a different story, however, when it came to close games.  In their first five losses of the year, the average margin of defeat was 2.8 points.  Heading into their final two games with a 9-5 record and playoff berth on the line (along with the 9-5 Steelers), Drew Brees promptly tore his rotator cuff, never played as a Charger again, and San Diego fell to the 10-win Chiefs and 13-win Broncos.  That year, the Steelers got the 6 seed and won the Super Bowl, leaving long-suffering San Diego fans wondering what could have been had a healthy Brees and Tomlinson earned that 6 seed instead.  Even worse, Brees fully recovered from the rotator cuff – only after the Chargers released him to the Saints, where he won Comeback Player of the Year in 2006 and a Super Bowl ring in 2009.  Ouch.

4. 1992 Houston Oilers

Record: 10-6 (lost wild card playoff game at Buffalo, 41-38 [OT])

Record in close games (+/- 7 points): 4-5

Injuries: 7/10

Schedule: 7/10

Competition at the top: 9/10

Yes, this was the same infamous team that couldn’t protect a 32-point lead at Buffalo.  But for Houston fans with long memories, there was even more pain and bitterness associated with this squad long before the words “Frank Reich” were ever muttered.  The Oilers were arguably the most balanced team in the league, finishing third in total offense and third in total defense.  Five of their 10 wins came against teams finishing over .500.  Even when Warren Moon had the bad fortune to suffer a concussion that led to backup Cody Carlson replacing him for five of the final six games, the offense still shined, with Haywood Jeffires and Ernest Givins leading the AFC in receptions and receiving TDs, respectively.  Few people remember that one week prior to “the comeback,” the Oilers stomped all over the Bills in the season finale, 27-3.  But the real bad luck, other than the Moon injury and Frank Reich, was five of the Oilers’ six losses coming by a touchdown or less.  Two of those losses were to Pittsburgh, giving the Steelers the AFC Central crown, a first-round bye, and homefield advantage through the playoffs – all of which was squandered when the Steelers were demolished by the Frank Reich and Company 24-3 in the divisional round.  In addition, they had the toughest schedule of any AFC playoff team, and the fourth-hardest schedule of any AFC team.  Houston would have one more great season (1993, when they finished 12-4) but the franchise would not win another playoff game until this happened in a game against . . .

3. 2010 Buffalo Bills

Record: 4-12 (missed playoffs)

Record in close games (+/- 7 points): 3-5

Injuries: 5/10

Schedule: 10/10

Competition at the top: 9/10

Buffalo fans have good reason to feel they have been continually cursed: Scott Norwood, Frank Wycheck, Vincent Gallo, the curse of O.J. Simpson.  In fact, this article could have been titled “The Top Ten Unluckiest Buffalo Bills Seasons.”  It may seem like a strange choice to select a Bills team which had no real playoff expectations and was clearly outmatched for the majority of the season (they were outscored by 142 points over the regular season). But maybe it’s because of how recent and visceral the pain of this season was for Buffalo fans (and fans of unlucky franchises in general).  According to standard metrics, the 2010 Buffalo Bills had the toughest regular season schedule of any team in NFL history, measuring at a ridiculous + 4.3.  The combined record of their opponents was 136-108 (.557 winning percentage).  12 of their opponents won seven games or more, and nine of them made the playoffs.  Still somehow, the Bills played their opponents competitively, losing by only 8 to 14-win New England in Foxboro, 3 to the 11-win Bears, and 5 to the Dolphins.  They tied an NFL record by losing three overtime games in single season, the most heartbreaking of which was the infamous Stevie Johnson end zone drop (WARNING: DISTURBING VIDEO CONTENT) that would have given them a victory over the Steelers.  On paper, they were absolutely solid, with Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing for 23 TDs (against 15 interceptions) and a backfield that began the year with Fred Jackson, Marshawn Lynch, and CJ Spiller (somehow, they finished with a league-worst 6 rushing TDs).  Look, no one is saying the 2010 Bills would have won the Super Bowl, but if you gave them the schedule of the ’10 Chiefs (one playoff opponent, a strength of schedule of -3.2), they could have probably mustered four wins in the first month of the season.

2. 2008 New England Patriots

Record: 11-5 (missed playoffs)

Record in close games (+/- 7 points): 3-2

Injuries: 10/10

Schedule: 5/10

Competition at the top: 10/10

You knew this team had to make the list, and not just because of my allegiance to this franchise.  It’s actually hard to call the 2008 unlucky because, in so many ways, they overperformed.  After Tom Brady’s season-ending ACL injury in the first quarter of the first game, New England asked a QB who hadn’t taken a snap in a game since high school to lead the league’s best passing attack the year before.  They dealt with all the baggage that came with blowing the undefeated season in the last minute of Super Bowl 42 (along with residual post-Spygate scorn from the teams which played them).  The Pats’ three leading rushers were Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk, and LaMont Jordan, and yet somehow they finished with the NFL’s sixth-best rushing offense.  In spite of season-ending injuries to Adalius Thomas, Rodney Harrison, Junior Seau, Laurence Maroney, and Benjamin Watson, New England finished in the top ten in both defense and offense.  They became the second team in NFL history (and the first since the league adopted the 12-team playoff format) to win 11 games and miss the postseason.  It wasn’t a late-season collapse, either – the Pats were the league’s best team in December, going 4-0 and outscoring opponents by a combined score of 133-54.  They certainly played better than the AFC East champ, the Dolphins, who went from 1-15 in 2007 to 11-5 in 2008 and won the division on the fourth tiebreaker (they also squeaked by on eight victories by a touchdown or less).  In the AFC West, the Chargers won the division with eight victories, and the nine-win Cardinals – a team the Patriots beat by 40 in Week 16 – almost won the Super Bowl.  No disrespect to Matt Cassel, but the 2008 Patriots may have been a fluke Bernard Pollard hit away from being another championship team.  Not the last time that sentence would be muttered.

1. 1991 Philadelphia Eagles

Record: 10-6 (missed playoffs)

Record in close games (+/- 7 points): 5-2

Injuries: 10/10

Schedule: 9/10

Competition at the top: 8/10

I would love to watch a prequel to Silver Linings Playbook where Robert De Niro and young Bradley Cooper have to endure the Eagles’ unremitting 1991 season.  Like the ’08 Patriots, it wasn’t unlucky because they lost close games (actually, they were pretty good in close games).  It wasn’t because they had the league’s toughest schedule either, although it was certainly no luxury playing in the same division as the defending champs (the Giants), the eventual 1991 champs (the Redskins), and the two champions after that (the Cowboys).  The 1991 Eagles were unlucky because, like the 2008 Patriots, their star QB Randall Cunningham was injured in the first half of their first game of the season.  In losing Cunningham, Philadelphia not only lost a quarterback coming off his best statistical season (30 TDs, 13 INTs in 1990) and in the prime of his career (age 28), but they also lost their best rusher (Cunningham had led the Eagles in rushing for four straight seasons).  So in spite of jugging Jim McMahon, Jeff Kemp, and Brad Goebel at QB, not having a 500-yard rusher, and being coached by Rich Kotite, the Eagles managed to win 10 games.  How?  Because they had arguably the greatest defense of all time.  Spearheaded by all-pro defensive ends Reggie White and Clyde Simmons, the defense posted five pro bowlers, including Eric Allen, Jerome Brown, and Seth Joyner.  Consider all the categories the Philadelphia defense was ranked #1 in: Total yards allowed, passing yards allowed, rushing yards allowed, sacks, turnovers forced, fumbles forced, first downs allowed, rushing touchdowns, and rush yards per play.  That they only finished fifth in points allowed is rather remarkable.  They didn’t allow a 300-yard passer, and only allowed four 200-yard QBs.  In fact, they only allowed one opponent (the Redskins) to gain over 300 yards in a game – a feat that has since only been matched by the Super Bowl Champion Steelers in 2008.  Philadelphia was one of only two teams to beat Washington, and they also defeated the Oilers, Cowboys, and swept the defending champion Giants.  The defensive trio of White, Allen, and Simmons would come back for one more season (Jerome Brown tragically died in the offseason) but by that point, the Cowboys had fully taken the reins of the NFC.  The problem for the Eagles was that they always found themselves peaking when their NFC foes were slightly better, and until Andy Reid arrived in 1999, they lacked stable coaching.  They still haven’t won a Super Bowl.  Now maybe if they found a position for Harvey Weinstein in their front office . . . 

Thoughts?  Disagreements?  Seahawks fans still upset about bad luck officiating in Super Bowl 40?  Let me know below.