This
week, Sportsbook released their early 2013 NFL regular season over/under win
totals (here’s an updated link via Bovada). In case you don’t
remember, for last year’s NFL Over/Under Wins column, I offered some excellent
insight (“A .500 season [for Buffalo] is a lot to ask,” “The stars are
perfectly aligned for [Detroit to finish under 9 wins])”) as well as a momentary
gaffe or two (“The 2012 Broncos are a disaster waiting to implode” – at least
that statement was correct about the last 40 seconds of regulation in their playoff loss to the Ravens). All in all, three out of my five picks were
correct, which isn’t bad, since I originally had a paragraph about the 12.5 win
total for New England was too high and how the Ravens would probably knock us
out of the playoffs as payback for Lee Evans/Billy Cundiff (I swear I wrote
this before deciding it looked too negative).
Of
course, writing this article in May has its drawbacks. There are still some key free agents (John
Abraham, Ahmad Bradsahw, Dallas Clark) that have yet to be signed with a team,
and last week’s developments involving Michael Crabtree and Brian Urlacher are indications of how unpredictable the league is during the
summer months, and the difficulty of
accurately predicting how a team will perform in the upcoming regular
season. But there are also upsides. Seattle had an over/under of 7 wins according
to my column last year – and I was writing in July. Other ridiculous lines included Oakland (7.5
wins), Washington (6 wins), and most laughable of all, Indianapolis (5 wins) and
Philadelphia (10.5 wins). Imagine what
these totals must have looked like before the Colts signed Donnie Avery and the
Eagles traded Asante Samuel to the Falcons.
In
any event, here are five early predictions that, like 32-yard field goals, are
automatic cash in your wallet.
Cincinnati
Bengals (Over 8.5 wins -135)
$100
bet pays $74.07
The Bengals have made the playoffs in
three of the last four seasons. Consider
other teams which have failed to do this: The Giants, 49ers, Steelers, Texans,
Vikings, Broncos, and Seahawks. Of
course, each of those teams (minus the Broncos) have more playoff wins in the
last four years than Cincinnati, but this column is about regular season
wins. In 2012, Geno Atkins and Michael
Johnson spearheaded a fearsome defense that was second in the league in sacks,
and ended the year with victories over the Steelers (in Pittsburgh) and the
Ravens. They had, by all accounts, a
superb draft where they drafted this guy. Where did they find him, Avenger tryouts? In 2013, they have a grand total of one road
game versus a winning team (at Baltimore, week 10), three of its first four and
final four games are at home, and we all know about the big offseason losses of
the Ravens and Steelers. This is the
team of the future in the AFC North.
Denver
Broncos (Under 11.5 wins -120)
$100
bet pays $120
I’m not going to go crazy and call them
a disaster in the making, like I proclaimed them to be in last year’s
column. But age is a problem for this
team. Depending on how you choose to
look at it, the Broncos offense is either too old (Peyton Manning is 37 and
Willis McGahee will be 32) or too young and inexperienced (Eric Decker and
Demaryius Thomas are coming off their first 1,000 yard, injury-free
campaigns). In 2012, Denver was blessed
with a ridiculously easy schedule (10 of its 13 wins coming against teams
sub-.500) and was fortunate enough to play in a division with the Chargers,
Chiefs, and Raiders. Now, the Chargers
have Manti Te’o and Dwight Freeney, the Chiefs have Andy Reid and Aaron Rodgers, and the Raiders . . . well, I guess that’s two of
Denver’s 12 needed wins right there, but where are the Broncos going to find
those ten other wins? Admittedly, their
2013 schedule isn’t dramatically difficult, but here’s a question: Can you name
the last 13 win, non-New England team to win 12+ games its next season? You would have to go all the way back to
2009, when Manning’s Colts won 14 games after a 12-win 2008. There’s too much parity in the league to rely
on good teams to remain consistently good (unless you’re talking about the
Patriots). 12 wins is a high total for any
team, let alone one which has never won three consecutive division titles.
Detroit
Lions (Under 7.5 wins +110)
$100
bet pays $110
Were the Sportsbook prognosticators in
Vegas not watching this team last year?
Hello? Maybe they were distracted
by the free T-shirts in the Part Pit at the Excalibur. In the meantime, the 2012 Lions were one of
the most dumbfounding, statistically quirky teams of all time. Matthew Stafford threw for over 4,900 yards
and Calvin Johnson set an NFL record with 1,964 receiving yards . . . and yet
they could only muster 20 passing TDs and 5 receiving TDs between them. Huh? Only
one receiver has ever passed 1,400 yards
receiving and had fewer total TDs
(interestingly, that receiver was Andre Johnson in 2012). It’s not like the Lions had a great running
game in the red zone either; they just didn’t know how to win games. In eight of their 12 losses, they outgained
their opponent in total yards. Who does
that? Anyway, Detroit will continue
doing its best imitation of the mid-1980s Chargers by throwing for a ton of
yards, lacking a consistent running game, and forgetting entirely about
defense. Oh, and four of its first six
games in 2013 are on the road, and ten of their opponents had winning records
last season.
San
Francisco 49ers (Under 11 wins -105)
$100
bet pays $105
Expect this total to fall to 10.5 or 10
depending on the gravity of the Crabtree situation. But even with a healthy Crabtree, 11+ wins is
a tall order for the 49ers. This is not
because they don’t have talent; they may be the league’s deepest team on both
sides of the ball. Put this squad in
another year or another division and 11 wins would be a cakewalk. Unfortunately, the 2013 49ers face serious
questions: Can Colin Kaepernick make it through an entire season? Can Kyle Williams and Mario Manningham
account for the loss of Crabtree (and Delanie Walker)? On defense, which Nnamdi Asomugha will show
up – the Raiders version or the Eagles version?
But most significantly, the NFC West has gone from laughingstock of the
league to suddenly the NFL’s toughest division, especially with the Seahawks (unbeatable
at Qwest Field) and the Rams (excellent draft, unbeaten vs. San Francisco last
season). San Francisco’s 2013 schedule
gives them no breaks: Seven playoff teams, on top of four games against the improved
Rams and Cardinals. Yikes. In fact, an 0-5 start is not inconceivable
(especially if you’re a biased Seahawks fan like certain other contributors to
this website). I love this team, and I
hope they play the Patriots in Super Bowl 48.
But the road will be anything but easy.
Washington
Redskins (Under 8.5 wins -135)
$100
bet pays $74.07
Let’s even assume, just for a second, that
RG3 is telling us the truth and he starts Week 1 fully recovered from his
reconstructive knee surgery. Now let’s
assume that somehow, miraculously, RG3 is able to make it through the season
without injury long enough to reach the plateau of nine wins – a notoriously
difficult feat in the NFC East. Now let’s
assume that Alfred Morris doesn’t have a sophomore slump, that the offense
continues to only turn the ball over a league-leading 14 times all year, and
that the defense overcomes its bottom-three passing numbers in 2012. Let’s assume the Redskins can have
consecutive winning seasons, something the Washington franchise has not
accomplished since Bush watched their games from the White House (not W., but
H.W.) Let’s assume that they can beat
Green Bay, Denver, and Atlanta on the road, and that the Chip Kelly experiment
in Philadelphia is a disaster. Now, even
if all of those things end up happening, do you still honestly believe without a doubt
the Redskins will reach nine wins? My
point exactly.
