Every major fan base in sports likes
to think of themselves as unlucky. Some
fan bases, such as the Minnesota Vikings and the Cleveland Browns, have much
more legitimacy when making this argument than, say, fans of the Yankees or the
Heat (the closest things to heartbreak either of those franchises have
experienced were the 2004 ALCS and the 2005 Eastern Conference Finals,
respectively; don’t fret though, they’ve won championships in the
meantime).
I think it’s easier to be “unlucky”
in pro football than in the other major sports for a number of reasons. First, individual injuries are more costly in
football given the degree of specialty for each position and difficulty of
replacement (as well as the fact that typically 25-30 players participate in a
given game, meaning that the possibility of injury is much higher). Second, unlike in baseball and basketball,
NFL teams do not play every other team over the course of a season; therefore,
it is possible for a team such as the 2010 Chiefs
to get lucky, play in an easy division, and beat only one team with
double-digit wins all season. In
contrast, teams such as the 2010 Bills
(see #3 on this list) could get the short end of the stick schedule-wise
through no real fault of their own.
Finally,
it is more difficult to make the playoffs in the NFL. Only 12 teams out of 32 – 37.5 percent – do
so, which is lower than the NBA and NHL, each at 53.3 percent. And although only one-third of all MLB teams
earn playoff berths, MLB clubs have 162 games at their disposal to make a
postseason run; NFL teams have less than one-tenth of that. In other words, the result of one NFL game
has more significance than ten MLB games.
Similarly, it is not uncommon to see a 10-win NFL team (with a winning
percentage of .625) miss the postseason because of unusually high competition
at the top of the standings. An MLB team
would have to win over 101 games to surpass a .625 winning percentage, and not
since the infamous 1993 Giants, winners of 103 games, has an MLB team missed
the playoffs with that amount of victories.
The following list counts down the
top ten unluckiest NFL teams since the league adopted a 16-game schedule in
1978. “Unluckiness” is weighed on a 1-10
scale in the three categories roughly mirroring what I described above:
Injuries, schedule, and competitiveness at the top of the standings. In addition, it is important to weigh context
as an additional component of unluckiness.
Sure, the 2010 Giants
were a 10-win team that finished in the top seven in both offense and defense
and missed the playoffs thanks to DeSean Jackson – but can
we really call this bad luck when the next season New York won the Super Bowl
with only 9 regular season wins? Vikings
and Browns fans, nod your heads and say it with me: It’s not bad luck when your
team wins the championship in the next few seasons (the 1991 49ers and 2002
Patriots also miss the list for that reason). Like I said at the beginning,
every fan base can look back and point to specific moments where their team
could not get a break – but the sad reality for sports fans is, that is true for
all fan bases. Well, except the Steelers.
(Oh, and Vikings and Browns
fans? Sorry, I couldn’t fit your teams
on this list. Better luck next time.)
Honorable Mention: 2005 New England
Patriots, 2006 New England Patriots, 2007 New England Patriots, 2010 New
England Patriots, 2012 New England Patriots, probably the 2013 New England
Patriots.
Honorable Mention (for reals): 1979 Washington
Redskins, 1988 New Orleans Saints, 1989 Cincinnati Bengals, 1999 New York Jets,
2010 San Diego Chargers.
Special Honorable
mention:
1989 San Diego Chargers
Record: 6-10
Record in close
games (+/- 7 points):
4-9
Injuries: 7/10
Schedule: 7/10
Competition at
the top:
6/10
For
most of the 1980s in SanDiego, fans wondered when the Chargers would finally spend time recruiting
quality defensive players. Fans ogled at
the possibilities of how dominant Air Coryell and Dan Fouts could be saddled
alongside a good defense. That year
finally arrived in 1989, when the Bolts finished in the top ten in defense for
the first time in ten seasons. Behind
the fearsome pass rush of Lee Williams and Burt Grossman, San Diego led the AFC
in sacks and finished second in the AFC in interceptions. After Week Two, the Chargers did not allow a
single opponent to score over 20 points.
Sadly, however, Dan Fouts had retired two years too soon and the
Chargers QB situation was a mess, with Jim McMahon getting benched and Billy
Joe Tolliver completing under 50 percent of his passes. Even worse, RB Gary Anderson, a breakout
player with over 1,100 yards in 1988, was a holdout all season. But most devastating of all was the Chargers’
performance in close games, becoming only the second team in NFL history to
lose nine games by seven points or fewer (no team has ever lost ten
games). They actually played well
against quality opponents – five of their six victories came against teams
finishing .500 or above – but the offense could never sustain a consistent
threat. Only one player, Pro Bowl
receiver Anthony Miller, had more than 31 catches. Fortunately for San Diego, they would recover
. . . to make another appearance on this list.
10. 2003 Tampa
Bay Buccaneers
Record: 7-9 (missed
playoffs)
Record in close
games (+/- 7 points):
2-7
Injuries: 8/10
Schedule: 6/10
Competition at
the top:
6/10
If
this list was based purely on an “eyesight” test, the 2003 Buccaneers would
probably be the #1 most unlucky team ever.
I remember this team. I remember
that they pretty much returned everyone from Tampa Bay’s Super Bowl team one year
earlier (minus Super Bowl 37 MVP Dexter Jackson). I remember that week after week, the Bucs
couldn’t pull it out in close games – to an almost laughable extent. It was the first time they had missed the
playoffs since 1998. Things started out
great Week 1, when they destroyed their NFC foe Eagles 17-0 in Philadelphia in
front of Sylvester Stallone and a national audience. But after that, the pirate ship began to sink. Martin Gramatica missed an extra point (his
only miss of the season) that would have given them a 10-9 win over Carolina;
instead, they lost 12-9 in OT. They led
the Colts 35-14 with five minutes left to go; instead, Peyton Manning became
the first quarterback ever to lead his team from 21 downwith under five minutes left. They
gave up game-winning drives to Aaron Brooks and Brett Favre, and couldn’t
convert a two-point conversion to send the Falcons to overtime. Time after time, the Buccaneers fell apart in
the fourth quarter in spite of an offense that improved statistically from the
year before and a defense that still ranked fourth in the league (and first in
rushing TD allowed). Injuries to Mike
Alstott, Brian Kelly, and Greg Spires wreaked havoc, and Keyshawn Johnson’s
tension with the coaching staff led to the team trading him to the
Cowboys. But as much as you can blame
the 2003 season on dysfunction and injuries, the fact still remains that the
Buccaneers were an extremely talented team that got the poor end of the stick.
9. 2004 Carolina
Panthers
Record: 7-9 (missed
playoffs)
Record in close
games (+/- 7 points):
1-5
Injuries: 9/10
Schedule: 6/10
Competition at
the top:
6/10
Like
the Buccaneers, the Panthers followed their Super Bowl season with a
disappointing 7-9 campaign that left lots of fans scratching their heads. But unlike the Buccaneers, who had only mild
to moderate injuries, Carolina head coaches would have been wise to permanently
leave gurneys on the field each week.
This was a team completely decimated by injuries, early and often: Stephen Davis, DeShaun Foster, Steve Smith,
Kris Jenkins, Rod Smart, and even K John Kasay, to name a few. After a 1-7 start (featuring five straight
losses to playoff teams), an undrafted RB named Nick Goings stepped up and
resurrected a depleted running game.
Then, the JakeDelhomme-to-Muhsin Muhammad connection began to heat up, and suddenly the
offense was resurrected, averaging over 28 points per game in the season’s
second half. The defense answered, and
ended up leading the NFL in interceptions.
The Panthers won five straight, but fell short of a winning season with
a pair of hard-fought three point losses to the Falcons and Saints. One more victory would have given Carolina a
playoff berth (in 2004, the 8-8 Rams and 8-8 Vikings made the playoffs and each
won a game). Given that the ’04 Panthers
were wedged between two talented, healthy Carolina teams that made NFC
Championship appearances, bitter fans were left wondering what could have been
had all the injuries been less severe.
8. 1985 Denver
Broncos
Record: 11-5 (missed
playoffs)
Record in close
games (+/- 7 points):
6-4
Injuries: 5/10
Schedule: 7/10
Competition at
the top:
10/10
The
1985 Broncos became the first team in NFL history (but not the last) to win 11
games and miss the playoffs. They remain
the only team ever to have the unusual distinction that, had they won one more
game, not only would they have clinched the playoffs, but the Broncos would
have been the 1 seed. Denver sealed this
fate by losing two crucial overtime games to the Raiders (who finished 12-4) in
a span of three weeks in early December.
Still, it was an immensely successful season by any standard, which may
have made the lack of postseason all the more painful for Broncos fans. John Elway had his finest season up to that
point, compensating for a lack of consistent running game. In spite of the 11 victories, the Broncos
lost out on the playoffs due to tiebreakers against the Jets (who didn’t win a
playoff game) and the Patriots (who marched through the AFC before being destroyed
by the Bears in the Super Bowl). In a
cruel twist of fate, the Broncos did not get an opportunity to break those
tiebreakers by playing either of those teams during the regular season, thus
being perhaps the only team on this list to suffer because of a schedule which
was too easy. I can understand Broncos
fans who would want to see this time higher on the list – I mean, 11-5 and no
playoffs? – but let’s remember, the Broncos would make three Super Bowls in the
next five years (with considerable good luck throughout), John Elway would finish his career with two rings, and even had
the ’85 Broncos made the playoffs, they still would have been no match for the
Monsters of the Midway.
7. 1993 Miami
Dolphins
Record: 9-7 (missed
playoffs)
Record in close
games (+/- 7 points): 5-3
Injuries: 9/10
Schedule: 7/10
Competition at
the top: 6/10
The
1993 Dolphins are remembered as the only team in NFL history to begin a season
9-2 and somehow miss the postseason.
There is a tendency to conflate self-destruction and bad luck, but in
the case of Miami, both were readily apparent.
In the season where Don Shula won his 300th game and became
the all-time winningest NFL coach, the Dolphins looked in Super Bowl form in
mid-season, with Dan Marino enjoying a superb season. In Week 5, however, Marino tore his Achilles’
tendon and was gone for the remainder of the season. His replacement, Scott Mitchell, played
equally well, earning the NFL’s Player of the Month for October. But then he was injured, and the Dolphins
were forced to turn to 39-year-old Steve DeBerg to throw the ball to newly
acquired $4.2 million receiver Irving Fryar. With a 9-2 record entering
December, all Miami needed was one win to clinch a playoff berth. Instead, they promptly lost three straight
home games, gave up 45 points to a Chargers team which had 10 games where they
scored under 18 points. All they needed
to do was beat the 4-11 Patriots, and Scott Mitchell was returning. Inevitably, they lost the game in OT. In spite of the QB injuries, the Dolphins
still led the league in passing yards and finished second in total offense. Before Thanksgiving, they hadn’t turned the
ball over more than twice in a single game; beginning Thanksgiving, they had
five games of 3 or more turnovers. What
makes the 1993 Dolphins victims of bad luck more than simply a collapse was
that 1993 was the only season where Marino missed significant playing time due
to injury. It was also one of only three
years in the 1990s where Miami missed the playoffs and the only such year where
they had a winning record.
6. 2012 Detroit
Lions
Record: 4-12 (missed
playoffs)
Record in close
games (+/- 7 points):
3-8
Injuries: 7/10
Schedule: 9/10
Competition at
the top:
6/10
The
other day I read a stat about the 2012 Lions that was mind-boggling: Calvin
Johnson had six catches where he was tackled at the 1 yard line. That would explain Johnson’s 1,964 receiving
yards . . . and only five touchdowns.
That, in a nutshell, describes the 2012 Lions season. Detroit actually gained more total yards and
allowed fewer yards than they had in their 10-win 2011 campaign; but close
games was another story. Where they had
gone 5-3 in close games the year before, that number fell to a horrible 3-8 in
2012. Among the most humiliating losses
included a 44-41 loss to the Titans where Jim Schwartz opted to go for a fourth
down instead of kicking a makeable game-tying field goal; a loss to the Bears
where the mighty Lions offense couldn’t muster a single point in the game’s
first 59 minutes; and a 12-point lead with under 3 minutes left blown to Andrew
Luck on the game’s final play. Detroit outgained opponents in
total yards in 12 of its 16 games, but injuries and turnovers wreaked
havoc. In addition, the Lions faced 11
opponents with 10+ wins, including one stretch of five straight games against
playoff teams. I have not found any team
in NFL history that played 11 or more such games. Is this enough evidence to suggest the Lions
should be vastly improved in 2013 if four or five of those close games swing
the other way? I think so, especially if
Fairley can stay health and a permanent running game can be established.
5. 2005 San
Diego Chargers
Record: 9-7 (missed
playoffs)
Record in close
games (+/- 7 points):
2-5
Injuries: 7/10
Schedule: 8/10
Competition at the
top:
8/10
Coming
off a 2004 campaign in which they were the league’s Cinderella, the Chargers
had the league’s toughest schedule in 2005, playing 11 games against teams with
winning records. Unlike many teams on
this list, however, the Chargers played exceptionally well against the league’s
best teams. They annihilated the
defending champion Patriots by a score of 41-17 (!) in Foxboro. They beat Eli Manning and the NFC East
champion Giants by 22. They went on the
road to Indianapolis and handed the 13-0 Colts their first loss of the
season. Drew Brees, LaDanian Tomlinson,
and Antonio Gates were in the primes of their careers (ages 26, 26, and 25,
respectively) and rookie LB Shawne Merriman won Defensive Rookie of the
Year. It was a different story, however,
when it came to close games. In their
first five losses of the year, the average margin of defeat was 2.8
points. Heading into their final two
games with a 9-5 record and playoff berth on the line (along with the 9-5
Steelers), Drew Brees promptly tore his rotator cuff, never played as a Charger
again, and San Diego fell to the 10-win Chiefs and 13-win Broncos. That year, the Steelers got the 6 seed and
won the Super Bowl, leaving long-suffering San Diego fans wondering what could
have been had a healthy Brees and Tomlinson earned that 6 seed instead. Even worse, Brees fully recovered from the
rotator cuff – only after the Chargers released him to the Saints, where he won
Comeback Player of the Year in 2006 and a Super Bowl ring in
2009. Ouch.
4. 1992 Houston
Oilers
Record: 10-6 (lost wild
card playoff game at Buffalo, 41-38 [OT])
Record in close
games (+/- 7 points):
4-5
Injuries: 7/10
Schedule: 7/10
Competition at
the top: 9/10
Yes,
this was the same infamous team that couldn’t protect a 32-point lead at Buffalo. But for Houston fans with long memories,
there was even more pain and bitterness associated with this squad long before
the words “Frank Reich” were ever muttered.
The Oilers were arguably the most balanced team in the league, finishing
third in total offense and third in total defense. Five of their 10 wins came against teams
finishing over .500. Even when Warren
Moon had the bad fortune to suffer a concussion that led to backup Cody Carlson
replacing him for five of the final six games, the offense still shined, with
Haywood Jeffires and Ernest Givins leading the AFC in receptions and receiving
TDs, respectively. Few people remember
that one week prior to “the comeback,” the Oilers stomped all over the Bills in
the season finale, 27-3. But the real
bad luck, other than the Moon injury and Frank Reich, was five of the Oilers’
six losses coming by a touchdown or less.
Two of those losses were to Pittsburgh, giving the Steelers the AFC
Central crown, a first-round bye, and homefield advantage through the playoffs
– all of which was squandered when the Steelers were demolished by the Frank
Reich and Company 24-3 in the divisional round.
In addition, they had the toughest schedule of any AFC playoff team, and
the fourth-hardest schedule of any AFC team.
Houston would have one more great season (1993, when they finished 12-4)
but the franchise would not win another playoff game until this happened in a game
against . . .
3. 2010 Buffalo
Bills
Record: 4-12 (missed
playoffs)
Record in close
games (+/- 7 points):
3-5
Injuries: 5/10
Schedule: 10/10
Competition at
the top: 9/10
Buffalo
fans have good reason to feel they have been continually cursed: Scott Norwood,
Frank Wycheck, Vincent Gallo, the curse of O.J. Simpson. In fact, this article could have been titled
“The Top Ten Unluckiest Buffalo Bills Seasons.”
It may seem like a strange choice to select a Bills team which had no
real playoff expectations and was clearly outmatched for the majority of the
season (they were outscored by 142 points over the regular season). But maybe
it’s because of how recent and visceral the pain of this season was for Buffalo
fans (and fans of unlucky franchises in general). According to standard metrics, the 2010
Buffalo Bills had the toughest regular season schedule of any team in NFL
history, measuring at a ridiculous + 4.3.
The combined record of their opponents was 136-108 (.557 winning
percentage). 12 of their opponents won
seven games or more, and nine of them made the playoffs. Still somehow, the Bills played their
opponents competitively, losing by only 8 to 14-win New England in Foxboro, 3
to the 11-win Bears, and 5 to the Dolphins.
They tied an NFL record by losing three overtime games in single season,
the most heartbreaking of which was the infamous Stevie Johnson end zone drop (WARNING: DISTURBING VIDEO CONTENT) that would have given them a victory over the Steelers. On paper, they were absolutely solid, with
Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing for 23 TDs (against 15 interceptions) and a backfield
that began the year with Fred Jackson, Marshawn Lynch, and CJ Spiller (somehow,
they finished with a league-worst 6 rushing TDs). Look, no one is saying the 2010 Bills would
have won the Super Bowl, but if you gave them the schedule of the ’10 Chiefs
(one playoff opponent, a strength of schedule of -3.2), they could have
probably mustered four wins in the first month
of the season.
2. 2008 New
England Patriots
Record: 11-5 (missed
playoffs)
Record in close
games (+/- 7 points):
3-2
Injuries: 10/10
Schedule: 5/10
Competition at
the top:
10/10
You
knew this team had to make the list, and not just because of my allegiance to
this franchise. It’s actually hard to
call the 2008 unlucky because, in so many ways, they overperformed. After Tom Brady’s season-ending ACL injury in
the first quarter of the first game, New England asked a QB who hadn’t taken a
snap in a game since high school to lead the league’s best passing attack the
year before. They dealt with all the
baggage that came with blowing the undefeated season in the last minute of
Super Bowl 42 (along with residual post-Spygate scorn from the teams which
played them). The Pats’ three leading
rushers were Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk, and LaMont Jordan, and yet somehow they
finished with the NFL’s sixth-best rushing offense. In spite of season-ending injuries to Adalius
Thomas, Rodney Harrison, Junior Seau, Laurence Maroney, and Benjamin Watson, New
England finished in the top ten in both defense and offense. They became the second team in NFL history
(and the first since the league adopted the 12-team playoff format) to win 11 games
and miss the postseason. It wasn’t a
late-season collapse, either – the Pats were the league’s best team in
December, going 4-0 and outscoring opponents by a combined score of
133-54. They certainly played better
than the AFC East champ, the Dolphins, who went from 1-15 in 2007 to 11-5 in
2008 and won the division on the fourth tiebreaker (they also squeaked by on
eight victories by a touchdown or less).
In the AFC West, the Chargers won the division with eight victories, and
the nine-win Cardinals – a team the Patriots beat by 40 in Week 16 –
almost won the Super Bowl. No disrespect
to Matt Cassel, but the 2008 Patriots may have been a fluke Bernard Pollard hit
away from being another championship team.
Not the last time that sentence would be muttered.
1. 1991
Philadelphia Eagles
Record: 10-6 (missed
playoffs)
Record in close
games (+/- 7 points):
5-2
Injuries: 10/10
Schedule: 9/10
Competition at
the top:
8/10
I
would love to watch a prequel to Silver
Linings Playbook where Robert De Niro and young Bradley Cooper have to
endure the Eagles’ unremitting 1991 season.
Like the ’08 Patriots, it wasn’t unlucky because they lost close games
(actually, they were pretty good in close games). It wasn’t because they had the league’s
toughest schedule either, although it was certainly no luxury playing in the
same division as the defending champs (the Giants), the eventual 1991 champs
(the Redskins), and the two champions after that (the Cowboys). The 1991 Eagles were unlucky because, like
the 2008 Patriots, their star QB Randall Cunningham was injured in the first
half of their first game of the season. In
losing Cunningham, Philadelphia not only lost a quarterback coming off his best
statistical season (30 TDs, 13 INTs in 1990) and in the prime of his career
(age 28), but they also lost their best rusher (Cunningham had led the Eagles
in rushing for four straight seasons).
So in spite of jugging Jim McMahon, Jeff Kemp,
and Brad Goebel at QB, not having a 500-yard rusher, and being coached by Rich
Kotite, the Eagles managed to win 10 games.
How? Because they had arguably the greatest defense of all time. Spearheaded by all-pro defensive ends Reggie
White and Clyde Simmons, the defense posted five pro bowlers, including Eric
Allen, Jerome Brown, and Seth Joyner.
Consider all the categories the Philadelphia defense was ranked #1 in:
Total yards allowed, passing yards allowed, rushing yards allowed, sacks,
turnovers forced, fumbles forced, first downs allowed, rushing touchdowns, and
rush yards per play. That they only
finished fifth in points allowed is rather remarkable. They didn’t allow a 300-yard passer, and only
allowed four 200-yard QBs. In fact, they
only allowed one opponent (the Redskins) to gain over 300 yards in a game – a
feat that has since only been matched by the Super Bowl Champion Steelers in
2008. Philadelphia was one of only two
teams to beat Washington, and they also defeated the Oilers, Cowboys, and swept
the defending champion Giants. The
defensive trio of White, Allen, and Simmons would come back for one more season
(Jerome Brown tragically died in the offseason) but by that point, the Cowboys
had fully taken the reins of the NFC.
The problem for the Eagles was that they always found themselves peaking
when their NFC foes were slightly better, and until Andy Reid arrived in 1999,
they lacked stable coaching. They still
haven’t won a Super Bowl. Now maybe if
they found a position for Harvey Weinstein in their front office . . .
Thoughts? Disagreements? Seahawks fans still upset about bad luck
officiating in Super Bowl 40? Let me
know below.