2018 Golden Globes Preview and Predictions

The Golden Globes traditionally have been one of the most unpredictable awards shows, but in recent years they have regressed to the mean. It is a bit upsetting because we don’t get any The Tourist or John Travolta in Hairspray oddball nominations that have no chance at the Oscars, but it does actually provide a platform to highlight truly great achievements in comedy, which is very important this year in particular. Look at how this year’s first major awards show might shape up, which movies might get an initial Oscar boost, which new TV shows will make a splash, and what might have been the lineup in years past in my annual “HFPA Dream Lineup”.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SERIES, MINISERIES, OR TV MOVIE

1. Ann Dowd – The Handmaid’s Tale

2. Laura Dern – Big Little Lies

3. Megan Mullally – Will and Grace

4. Christy Metz – This Is Us
5. Shailene Woodley – Big Little Lies

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES, MINISERIES, OR TV MOVIE

1. Alexander Skarsgard – Big Little Lies

2. Sean Hayes – Will and Grace

3. David Harbour – Stranger Things

4. Michael McKeon – Better Call Saul

5. Alfred Molina – Feud: Bette and Joan

BEST ACTRESS IN A MINISERIES OR TV MOVIE

1. Nicole Kidman – Big Little Lies

2. Jessica Lange – Feud: Bette and Joan

3. Reese Witherspoon – Big Little Lies

4. Susan Sarandon – Feud: Bette and Joan
5. Elizabeth Moss – Top of the Lake: China Girl

BEST ACTOR IN A MINISERIES OR TV MOVIE

1. Robert De Niro – The Wizard of Lies

2. Benedict Cumberbatch – Sherlock: The Lying Detective

3. Ewan McGregor – Fargo

4. Geoffrey Rush – Genius
5. Jeff Daniels – Godless

BEST MINISERIES OR TELEVISION MOVIE

1. Big Little Lies

2. Feud: Bette and Joan

3. Fargo

4. Twin Peaks
5. The Sinner

BEST ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SERIES – COMEDY/MUSICAL

1. Julia Louis-Dreyfus – Veep

2. Debra Messing – Will and Grace

3. Issa Rae – Insecure

4. Tracee Ellis Ross – Black-ish
5. Pamela Adlon – Better Things

BEST ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES – COMEDY/MUSICAL

1. Anthony Anderson – Black-ish

2. Aziz Ansari – Master of None

3. Larry David – Curb Your Enthusiasm

4. Hanz Azaria – Brockmire
5. Matt LeBlanc – Episodes

BEST TELEVISION SERIES – COMEDY/MUSICAL

1.Veep

2. Will and Grace

3. Master of None

4. Black-ish
5. Curb Your Enthusiasm

BEST ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA

1. Elisabeth Moss – The Handmaid’s Tale

2. Claire Foy – The Crown

3. Maggie Gyllenhaal – The Deuce

4. Laura Linney – Ozark
5. Viola Davis – How to Get Away with Murder

BEST ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA

1. Sterling K. Brown – This Is Us

2. Bob Odenkirk – Better Call Saul

3. Live Schreiber – Ray Donovan

4. James Franco – The Deuce
5. Freddie Highmore – The Good Doctor

BEST TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA

1. The Handmaid’s Tale

2. Game of Thrones

3. Stranger Things

4. This Is Us
5. The Crown

Yeah…those are my best guesses at TV. They always love new shows and a select few that are contenders every year. Based on recent events, House of Cards and Transparent are all but eliminated from serious consideration in most categories. Unfortunate that art can’t be judged separately, but that’s the way it is… Now, onto the movies!

BEST ANIMATED FILM

1. Coco

2. Loving Vincent

3. Ferdinand

4. The Breadwinner
5. The LEGO Batman Movie

Explanation: This year has a bizarre lack of quality high profile animated films. Coco should coast to a victory here. Pixar is difficult to beat at the Globes no matter the quality of the film.

BEST FOREIGN FILM

1. First They Killed My Father: A Daughter of Cambodia Remembers (Angelina Jolie)

2. Thelma (Joachim Trier)

3. BPM (Beats Per Minute) (Robin Campilo)

4. In the Fade (Fatih Akin)
5. Happy End (Michael Haneke)

Explanation: Angelina Jolie’s last foreign film was poorly received, but she was still nominated in this category. This film is actually pretty good, and it has the right type of subject matter to justify her star power nomination. Haneke is a typical nominee here, as well as Akin.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. “Mighty River” – Mudbound

2. “I Don’t Want to Live Forever” – Fifty Shades Darker

3. “Come Alive” – The Greatest Showman

4. “Remember Me” – Coco
5. “Prayers for this World” – Cries from Syria

Explanation: It is difficult to pick the songs, but they love to get the biggest name artists involved. Mary J. Blige, Taylor Swift, Cher, and an excuse to have Zendaya and Hugh Jackman perform? That will suffice.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Alexandre Desplat – The Shape of Water

2. Hans Zimmer – Dunkirk

3. Michael Giacchino – Coco

4. Jonny Greenwood – Phantom Thread
5. John Williams – The Post

Explanation: I went with some easy names here. Greenwood would actually be a bit of a surprise if he gets in, but his There Will Be Blood score was so good that it wouldn’t too much of a shock if his music was a highlight in PTA’s fashion period piece. The Shape of Water just seems like an obvious choice. Del Toro’s films usually feature great music, but this one seems like one that will be reliant on the Desplat tracks to establish its mood.

BEST SCREENPLAY – MOTION PICTURE

1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

2. Get Out

3. Call Me By Your Name

4. The Big Sick
5. Lady Bird

Explanation: Sometimes, there is a film that sneaks into this category that has no real shot at winning. I don’t really see that this year, seeing as almost all of the main contenders are highlighted by tremendous and flashy writing. Three Billboards seems like a winner in this category, but should one of the others upset it, then that film could take a serious step toward Best Picture contention.

BEST DIRECTOR – MOTION PICTURE

1. Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk

2. Steven Spielberg – The Post

3. Guillermo Del Toro – The Shape of Water

4. Patty Jenkins – Wonder Woman
5. Martin McDonagh – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Explanation: If Spielberg makes a movie, he is in. This is a fairly safe list, with the exception of Patty Jenkins. I get the feeling that they are going to try to include one of the many amazing women directions from 2017, which could also include Dee Rees, Angelina Jolie, Kathryn Bigelow, or Greta Gerwig.

The HFPA Dream Lineup:

Woody Allen – Wonder Wheel

Patty Jenkins – Wonder Woman

Angelina Jolie – First They Killed My Father: A Daughter of Cambodia Remembers

Jordan Peele – Get Out

Ridley Scott – All the Money in the World

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE

1. Allison Janney – I, Tonya

2. Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird

3. Holly Hunter – The Big Sick

4. Mary J. Blige – Mudbound
5. Julianne Moore – Wonderstruck

Explanation: Predicting the supporting categories is always the hardest thing with the Globes. Sometimes there is a serious wrench thrown in there, but I don’t know where it would come from. The Julianne Moore nomination seems like one that will show up here and nowhere else throughout awards season. Mary J. Blige is just a stab in the dark. The other three are typical of this category.

The HFPA Dream Lineup:

Judi Dench – Murder on the Orient Express

Kate Hudson – Marshall

Nicole Kidman – Killing of a Sacred Deer

Julia Roberts – Wonder

Amy Schumer – Thank You for Your Service

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE

1. Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project

2. Armie Hammer – Call Me By Your Name

3. Ben Menelsohn – Darkest Hour

4. Sam Rockwell – Three Billbaords Outside Ebbing, Missouri
5. Harrison Ford – Blade Runner 2049

Explanation: This could be a lot like what the Oscar lineup looks like, but without Harrison Ford. His performance is quite good in the sequel, and there is some precedent for awarding a sequel’s iconic role reiteration. Sylvester Stallone was nominated in 2015 for Creed, and in 2010 Michael Douglas was nominated for his second time playing Gordon Gecko in this category.

The HFPA Dream Lineup:

Daniel Craig – Logan Lucky

Jon Hamm – Baby Driver

Mark Hamill – Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Patrick Stewart – Logan

Justin Timberlake – Wonder Wheel

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE – COMEDY/MUSICAL

1. Saorise Ronan – Lady Bird

2. Emma Stone – Battle of the Sexes

3. Judi Dench – Victoria and Abdul

4. Margot Robbie – I, Tonya
5. Aubrey Plaza – Ingrid Goes West

Explanation: It seems like the right time for Saoirse Ronan to win an Oscar, but she absolutely has to win this category to have a chance at unseating Frances McDormand and others in the year’s best dramas. Maybe Aubrey Plaza is wishful thinking, but I thought the same thing about eventual nominee Emma Stone in Easy A in 2010.

The HFPA Dream Lineup:

Judi Dench – Victoria and Abdul

Salma Hayek – Beatriz at Dinner

Queen Latifah – Girls Trip

Emma Stone – Battle of the Sexes

Emma Watson – Beauty and the Beast

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE – COMEDY/MUSICAL

1. Hugh Jackman – The Greatest Showman

2. James Franco – The Disaster Artist

3. Kumail Nanjiani – The Big Sick

4. Adam Sandler – The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected)
5. Matt Damon – Downsizing

Explanation: If there is a musical, it is almost always represented in this category. It actually was a little upsetting to have to leave off Daniel Kaluuya in Get Out. He might actually end up getting the nod, but I just can’t see any of these powerhouse names and HFPA-friendly films getting ignored.

The HFPA Dream Lineup:

Steve Carell – Battle of the Sexes

Matt Damon – Suburbicon

Johnny Depp – Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Lies

Brad Pitt – War Machine

Channing Tatum – Logan Lucky

BEST MOTION PICTURE – COMEDY/MUSICAL

1. Get Out

2. The Disaster Artist

3. Downsizing

4. Battle of the Sexes
5. The Big Sick

Explanation: Maybe the reviews for Thor can actually vault it into this category, but there really isn’t any evidence of the Globes actually liking Marvel movies. Not even Iron Man could secure a nomination, but we will see if the box office hit from this year can make it in. It feels a little weird leaving off films by Soderbergh and Clooney, but this is actually a difficult category this year. I couldn’t even fit in Lady Bird. Get Out should be the favorite, but I can see The Disaster Artist or The Big Sick upsetting it, depending on how seriously they take a horror film about racism as a comedy.

The HFPA Dream Lineup:

Beauty and the Beast

Girls Trip

The Greatest Showman

Spider-Man: Homecoming

Thor: Rangnarok

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA

1. Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

2. Meryl Streep – The Post

3. Jennifer Lawrence – mother!

4. Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water
5. Kate Winslet – Wonder Wheel

Explanation: This is an absolutely stacked year for star power actresses. This is almost their dream lineup anyway, but they would definitely give Winslet a double nom rather than spreading the wealth. Streep always wins at the Globes, but McDormand is due for another major awards sweep.

The HFPA Dream Lineup:

Jennifer Lawrence – mother!

Nicole Kidman – The Beguiled

Meryl Streep – The Post

Kate Winslet – The Mountain Between Us

Kate Winslet – Wonder Wheel

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA

1. Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour

2. Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread

3. Tom Hanks – The Post

4. Timothee Chalamet – Call Me By Your Name
5. Denzel Washington – Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Explanation: It appears to be Oldman vs Day-Lewis all awards season long, but that Timothee Chalamet just eerily sits there with all these monsters of Hollywood like Adrian Brody did in 2002…

The HFPA Dream Lineup:

Ryan Gosling – Blade Runner 2049

Tom Hanks – The Post

Jake Gyllenhaal – Stronger

Hugh Jackman – Logan

Denzel Washington – Roman J. Israel, Esq.

BEST MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA

1. Dunkirk

2. Call Me By Your Name

3. The Post

4. The Shape of Water
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Explanation: This is not an easy category to predict. Category fraud is always an issue. Dunkirk had the box office and reviews, and Nolan is beloved throughout the industry both domestically and internationally. We will have to see how good The Post actually is before we consider it a contender. If Three Billboards can pull out a win here, then that could be our new Oscar favorite. In 4 of the last 6 years, however, the Globes have gone independent in this category. Call Me By Your Name could get a major boost if it were to upset the higher profile dramas.

The HFPA Dream Lineup:

Blade Runner 2049

Goodbye Christopher Robin

Logan

Murder on the Orient Express

Wonder Woman

Thoughts? Comments? Overlooks? Your predictions? Comment below…