It’s that time! It has now been 10 months since I put out my amazingly accurate 2026 Oscar predictions. The main fall festivals have come and gone. We have had some movies rise up that I had previously not heard of (It Was Just an Accident, Train Dreams). We have had some movies get rave reviews and become contenders in genres that do not normally get recognized (Sinners, Weapons). We have had movies completely crash and burn (In the Hand of Dante, The Life of Chuck). We have had movies do exactly what we expected them to (Sentimental Value, Hamnet). We still haven’t seen some potential contenders (Wicked: For Good, Marty Supreme). We are also still waiting for any update on Terrence Malick’s The Way of the Wind. I’m taking all of that into account. Look no further than this article for the definitive Oscar update as we move into the stretch run!
BEST PICTURE
The Predicted Ten
1. (1) Sentimental Value (Joachim Trier) - Not much has changed since January here. I uncovered this movie before anyone knew about it, and coming off the now universally beloved The Worst Person in the World, Trier is looking at true frontrunner status for his next film. It was only a matter of time before he broke through at the Oscars. Here he doesn’t have to fly under the radar. Everyone is rooting for this movie.
2. (7) One Battle After Another (Paul Thomas Anderson) - The movie’s initial reviews were overwhelmingly positive. We will see if this is truly the Academy’s thing. They love PTA regardless of what he is doing. They even gave Inherent Vice a screenplay nomination. This seems pretty guaranteed for 6-10 nominations. Can PTA finally get his first win? It is looking promising, but not in this category.
3. (3) Hamnet (Choe Zhao) - The TIFF Audience award confirmed that this is one of the ones to beat in several categories. It didn’t take long for Zhao to rebound after one of the worst movies of the decade when she took on the MCU. This is much more Oscar-friendly, almost seeming like a devastating drama version of Shakespeare in Love. Let’s see if audiences can show up for it and put it over the top.
4. (--) It Was Just an Accident (Jafar Panahi) - The Cannes winning films have become much more important in recent years since the Academy has gone overboard with their international voting body. Panahi’s films are usually really niche and never an Oscar thing, but those terms have changed. This movie has consistently been mentioned as one of the highlights of whatever the festival. It looks pretty secure for a nomination.
5. (--) Sinners (Ryan Coogler) - The rise of Sinners is interesting. It would be unlike anything ever nominated at the Oscars, but the box office was impressive. The word of mouth in recent months has also kept it in the running with reviewers and the online contingent desperate for this to be the next EEAAO. It is not that, but it is hard to argue against a nomination here.
6. (2) Wicked: For Good (Jon M Chu) - The trailers have been pretty underwhelming so far. The word is really quiet here, which might be a good thing. It needs to be a phenomenon like the first one, but it also needs to prove that it is better and more important than part 1. I am not convinced that is possible, but this is the Dune: Part Two of this year. A BP nom is almost a lock.
7. (--) A House of Dynamite (Kathryn Bigelow) - The reviews from the festival circuit have been outstanding for this film. It sorta came out of nowhere. Bigelow does not have producer-writer Mark Boal on her side for this one, so we will see just how much the industry likes her. The cast is filled with quality actors who have never been nominated, but Netflix is great at securing nominations. This is a real contender.
8. (12) Avatar: Fire and Ash (James Cameron) - It is hard to underestimate Cameron. Nobody has seen this, but the trailers are as breathtaking as ever. If the second one got in, then this is almost completely locked in. I don’t think it can win, but I also don’t think it can miss.
9. (--) Is This Thing On? (Bradley Cooper) - The trailers have catapulted this up the ranks pretty high. Cooper has a lot of fans in the industry, and this true story about a standup comedian seems like something more effortless than his previous two directorial efforts. Plus, he isn’t the lead in the film. I can see this being an under the radar contender in a lot of categories.
10. (--) Marty Supreme (Josh Safdie) - This is one of the big mysteries of the Oscar season. It skipped all of the festivals, so the hype around this will be huge when it debuts at the end of the year. The marketing campaign has been pretty brilliant, and we are all eager to see what the Safdies look like apart from each other.
Others in contention
11. (14) Bugonia (Yorgos Lanthimos) - The Academy loves Lanthimos, but this might be one of those that is a bit too far out there. Kinds of Kindness and The Killing of a Sacred Deer are the only ones that have been completely ignored since he broke out. This sounds like a tough sell. If it can have a respectable box office, then it will start to rise back up the ranks.
12. (5) No Other Choice (Park Chan-wook) - The reviews have been outstanding for this. There are somehow other foreign films that have passed it up, but if the Academy keeps their trend going, then there are certainly enough spots for 3 or 4 foreign films in the race. Park has never really been close to a nomination, but he is primed to change that soon, especially after Decision to Leave.
13. (--) Nuremberg (James Vanderbilt) - The reviews have been fine, but this appears to be exactly the kind of classic entertainment that will appeal to the older voters. This is the September 5 of the year. The trailers look pretty great. I bet this puts up quite a fight at the box office and is the one the online clowns groan about all season. I can’t wait for that!
14. (20) Rental Family (Hikari) - The movie looks really corny, giving off pretty clear Walter Mitty vibes. I considered that an Oscar contender back in 2013 before the movie flopped. How much does the Academy still love Brendan Frasier? That will be the determining factor for this film’s Oscar prospects.
15. (18) Frankenstein (Guillermo Del Toro) - The reviews were underwhelming until it took 2nd place at TIFF. Del Toro has a huge fanbase within the Academy, and I feel a little foolish putting it down this low. There are just other horror films that seem to be upstaging it, particularly ones that aren’t Netflix originals.
16. (--) Jay Kelly (Noah Baumbach) - The reception has been fine for the movie. It just feels like the kind of thing that will be a hit within the industry regardless, given its subject matter and stapower. Look for a couple acting nominations at least. This just doesn’t feel like the kind of hit that Marriage Story was.
17. (--) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (Scott Cooper) - After A Complete Unknown completely overperformed last year, anything is possible with this. It appears to be one of the good ones, which means a Best Picture nomination is entirely possible, as well as the movie competing heavily for the top acting prize. Scott Cooper has been up and down with the Academy.
BEST DIRECTOR
The Predicted Five
1. (1) Joachim Trier - Sentimental Value - Last year halted quite a run for international directors winning this award. The Academy is going to be eager to reverse that. It helps that they have a bunch of foreign born directors to choose from. The goodwill from his last film makes this nomination a lock, and a win looks more and more likely each week.
2. (5) Paul Thomas Anderson - One Battle After Another - PTA has only been nominated in this category twice, but he is always around the ceremony. I feel like he is more of a Tarantino, where he is seen more as a writer than a director, so winning this award will be a lot more difficult than Adapted Screenplay or Picture.
3. (--) Jafar Panahi - It Was Just an Accident - The foreign contingent will almost certainly get Panahi across the line for a nomination. It is also commendable seeing all that he has to go through just to get a movie made in his country. This is close to a lock, as long as the industry responds the way critics have.
4. (3) Chloe Zhao - Hamnet - This will be a nice welcome back nomination for the recent winner in the category. Even if the movie is more low-key in how it is shot and mounted, she is already part of the club. A lot would have to go wrong for her to miss.
5. (--) Kathryn Bigelow - A House of Dynamite - Like I mentioned above, we will need to see how much the Academy really likes her. Her last film completely flopped commercially and with awards, so has she lost her touch? I think the Academy is eager to bring her back, but the material also doesn’t sound like the kind of thing that will give her room to show off. I will leave this here for the safe bet, but one of the next few are probably actually going to snag this spot.
Others in contention
6. (4) Park Chan-wook - No Other Choice - I am rooting for Park to get in, but Decision to Leave had as much or more going for it and got shut out. If the movie really speaks to audiences the way it has been implied at the festivals, then this could be an even bigger contender than just sneaking a few nominations.
7. (14) Yorgos Lanthimos - Bugonia - He is going to win an Oscar at some point, but this material is just so strange that it is hard to imagine it would be for this, an absurdist black comedy remake. But then again, they have nominated him for Dogtooth and The Lobster. Anything is possible with the Lanthimos lovers all over.
8. (--) Ryan Coogler - Sinners - He already has one Best Picture nomination under his belt, so this would not be entirely out of the realm of possibility. It is really hard to fathom a vampire thriller being anointed to this extent, but everyone online is pushing for it. That only works sometimes. I just can’t see this one getting in for Director, but Coogler still has a stronger case than some of these other contenders.
9. (7) Jon M Chu - Wicked: For Good - His win at the Critics Choice last year is still head-scratching, but that just proves how big the first movie was. If they were waiting for the concluding chapter to reward the movie, then he would become a lock. It would just be a trend-breaker if a big budget fantasy musical got nominated for Best Director.
10. (17) Guillermo Del Toro - Frankenstein - He only has one nomination and win in this category. The movie has such a clear parallel to Nosferatu last year, which was a masterclass in gothic horror. This would just be for Del Toro, not necessarily the work. It happens.
11. (--) Josh Safdie - Marty Supreme - We really don’t know too much about how this will go. The other movies that no one has seen we have some precedent for, but this is a mystery. Which Safdie is the genius director? We will see.
12. (--) Benny Safdie - The Smashing Machine - Same story with his brother. When he won the Venice Best Director award, it definitely opened some eyes. Maybe they are both geniuses. We will see. This is certainly more promising than the solo work from the Coen Brothers…
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. (21) Timothee Chalamet - Marty Supreme - He showed with his SAG speech last year that this means a lot to him. He has been committed to this part for quite a while and is said to give his best performance in it. We will see how this plays, but he has to be in first for now.
2. (--) Jeremy Allen White - Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere - These music biopics get nominations, but not necessarily wins. Is White really that popular of an actor to break the trend? We just had a TV star win an Oscar last year. Is this the new normal? Scott Cooper has directed an actor to a win in this category in the past.
3. (9) Leonardo DiCaprio - One Battle After Another - After his brutal snub for Killers of the Flower Moon, it is hard to see that happening again. He taps into his Rick Dalton in this role, which got him a nomination most pundits were trying to get snubbed. He is the most fascinating movie star in the world. If this is a real threat to win Best Picture, then he could be winning his second Oscar here, even if he has been in this territory before.
4. (--) Daniel Day-Lewis - Anemone - The trailer was astonishing and immediately vaulted him into nomination status. Who knows how good of a director his son is, but his performance promises to be another all timer from the 3 time winner and maybe best actor ever. Even the early reviews that are lukewarm on the film are gaga over his work.
5. (16) Dwayne Johnson - The Smashing Machine - The festival reviews have all raved about his performance. He might be one of the most popular public figures in the country, and most audiences would love to see him get some awards love. This seems almost too good to be true, but the role kinda speaks for itself.
Others in contention
6. (11) Brendan Frasier - Rental Family - Coming off his win in 2022, it wouldn’t be difficult to see a validation nomination, especially in a role so much different than what he won for. The movie will need to really take off with audiences.
7. (--) Wagner Moura - The Secret Agent - The Cannes standout has been steadily gaining more and more buzz throughout the year. Moura is a recognizable actor, which is necessary when looking to break into an acting category for a foreign performer. We know he will have Brazil behind him, which obviously made a difference last year.
8. (26) Jesse Plemons - Bugonia - Some reviews have implied that this is the best performance Plemons has ever given, which is surprising considering he won Best Actor at Cannes last year. If it is a hit Lanthimos, then sure he is getting in. If it is too weird, then his campaign will be dead before it starts.
9. (--) Michael B Jordan - Sinners - He has had an underrated career and deserved a nomination in the past. He plays dual roles, which is something the Academy goes for only sporadically. If the movie is actually a threat to win, which I find unlikely, then he will be a complete lock for his first nomination.
10. (17) George Clooney - Jay Kelly - Everyone loves Clooney. It doesn’t seem like the kind of role that needs to be nominated, but you could have said the same thing for each one of his nominations (other than maybe The Descendants). Baumbach only has one past film to really bank on. I am interested to see how this gets pushed in the coming months.
11. (--) Will Arnett - Is This Thing On? - I don’t want to put this completely out of the realm of possibility. Bradley Cooper has gotten five nominations for his actors in just two films. Arnett is the star of the film, and he is one of the most popular Hollywood stars right now with his podcast. He will have a lot of support. The movie really needs to be a hit, though.
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. (1) Jessie Buckley - Hamnet - The movie is one of the frontrunners, and she has really become an awards darling in the last 5 years or so. The reviews out of TIFF implied that this is one of the most devastating films of the year, and her performance is one of the reasons for that. She is the safe pick to leave at #1 for now.
2. (2) Renate Reinsve - Sentimental Value - She should have been nominated in 2021 for the last Trier film, but here she has a much clearer path to her first nomination. The reviews all seem to highlight different actors, but being the star of the film, along with leftover love from The Worst Person in the World, she really should be considered close to a lock.
3. (--) Rose Byrne - If I Had Legs I’d Kick You - This would be a unique choice, but the online contingent has been pushing this since Sundance. Byrne is a truly underrated actress. It is cool that she gets a true spotlight lead role here. The category has some pretty heavy hitters in the running, so her film needs to make some serious waves for this to happen.
4. (12) Tessa Thompson - Hedda - This is the type of performance that gets nominated. Thompson has had some great performances in recent years, and this is her first big Oscar role since Passing, which she easily could have gotten in for. I really like Amazon to push her through to her first nomination.
5. (--) Laura Dern - Is This Thing On? - This would be the most Oscar thing to do. The star of the movie gets left off, but the wife role is the one that gets the Oscar nom. She is a recent winner and consistently pops up in quality projects. If she truly campaigns as lead, then it probably makes her nomination more difficult, but I still like her chances.
Others in contention
6. (7) Sydney Sweeney - Christy - The reviews have been glowing for her performance. There is competition in the fight movie genre from The Smashing Machine, of course, but these kinds of movies are hard to ignore. She is one of the biggest stars out there right now, and she uglies herself up and looks the part. She has an excellent chance to get her first nomination here.
7. (3*) Emma Stone - Bugonia - The movie looks insane. She has become an Oscar darling, so she is in the running whenever she makes a movie. If she continues to be in every Lanthimos project, I can see her becoming one of the most decorated actors in Oscar history. This movie just might be too tough of a sell for her to make the final five. I previously had her in Supporting, but it appears that she will go lead.
8. (15) Julia Roberts - After the Hunt - The reviews have been pretty lousy for the movie, but they have consistently singled out Roberts. It has been 12 years since her last nomination, and she really hasn’t had much of a chance since then. If a lot of these contenders flop, then she could be a default nominee.
9. (--) June Squibb - Eleanor the Great - The movie looks like another wonderful turn by Squibb. She had to be pretty close to a nom for Thelma last year, and she seems to be tapping into something similar here. It is going to be more of a hit than that. Do we need to give her a second nomination at age 95 and shatter all those records? I kinda think so, but we will see if the movie makes some noise.
10. (10) Cynthia Erivo - Wicked: For Good - It is really hard to get nominated twice for the same performance, especially something like this where they clearly released half of the movie. The trailers look like it is more of the Ariana Grande show in this part, so I will be safe and leave her off.
11. (--) Jennifer Lawrence - Die, My Love - Lynne Ramsey movies are a really tough sell for the Academy. Lawrence can probably get nominated for anything, but this is an uphill climb. It is certainly not impossible, but we even saw the Academy go another way after Tilda Swinton got a nod from every precursor for We Need to Talk About Kevin. If Lawrence can turn this into some sort of box office success story, then she really increases her chances.
12. (--) Cate Blanchett - Father, Mother, Sister, Brother - The Golden Lion winner at Venice has a really interesting cast. Is she the lead? I really don’t know. Anthology movies are hard for the Academy to embrace, but if someone is getting in for the Jim Jarmusch film, it will be the two-time winner Blanchett (we all know that should be “three-time winner” after her atrocious loss in 2023).
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. (1) Stellen Skarsgaard - Sentimental Value - He has been the clear frontrunner since the movie’s details first emerged. The reviews and everything since have been ecstatic. It is strange that the longtime great character actor has never been nominated. That changes this year.
2. (--) Delroy Lindo - Sinners - He also has never been nominated, despite his impressive work throughout his career (especially Da 5 Bloods). Here, he is the scene-stealing drunk, which has been a thing with the Oscars for almost 100 years. Here is his first nomination.
3. (9) Paul Mescal - Hamnet - The category placement is uncertain, but he is proving that he is one of our best young actors. If the movie is as much of a hit with audiences and Academy members as it was at TIFF, then he should have no problem riding that wave to a second nom.
4. (7) Jacob Elordi - Frankenstein - The movie was resurrected by its placement at TIFF, and even the reviews that are unsure of the film still praise Elordi. He will be under all the makeup, which sometimes pans out and sometimes doesn’t. This would be a big step in his blossoming career.
5. (--) Adam Sandler - Jay Kelly - It appears like the industry is ready to finally admit that Sandler is a great actor. He was nomination-worthy in the last Baumbach movie he appeared in, and here his reviews are sorta undeniable. If he gets snubbed again, then it just may never happen for him.
Others in contention
6. (--) Sean Penn - One Battle After Another - His role is big and broad. He is one of the funniest parts of the film, but he is also the villain. The reviews are in love with this role, but this performance would be a weird one to nominate. He has never been nominated for a supporting role.
7. (--) Jeremy Strong - Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere - The role seems very similar to his role that landed him in the nominating five a year ago. It is a key supporting role, and he disappears into it. His peers adore him. I wouldn’t put it past them to make him our next Mark Ruffalo when he starts to just stack supporting nominations in the next 10 years.
8. (--) Sean Bean - Anemone - He has never really been in the Oscar discussion. If Day-Lewis is coasting to a nomination the way it appears he is, then maybe Bean can ride the wave. He will need to steal some scenes.
9. (4) Andrew Scott - Blue Moon - He has been around the game for a few years now. Playing Richard Rodgers isn’t necessarily a juicy role, but it is a Linklater film. Other than Boyhood, his movies usually get ignored, but this one should be in the conversation. Early reviews are extremely positive.
10. (--) Akira Emoto - Rental Family - He plays a retired actor in the film, which premiered to really positive reviews at TIFF. I don’t know much about the actor, other than that he was singled out quite a bit in the early remarks.
11. (--) Jonathan Bailey - Wicked: For Good - He got a SAG nom a year ago for the film. I don’t know the extent of his role in part 2, but he needs to be mentioned.
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. (--) Elle Fanning - Sentimental Value - The Supporting Actress race is wide open. It seems pretty safe to have one of the films from the BP frontrunner up at the top. Elle Fanning has been in and around the awards game for quite a while, and somehow she still has never gotten a nomination. Last year she won at NBR, so maybe there is still some leftover love from that. She has been consistently singled out in reviews this year again.
2. (--) Gwyneth Paltrow - Marty Supreme - This is pure speculation, but isn’t it time we get a second nomination for the Best Actress winner from 1998? I have heard nothing but great things about her role. It would be a pleasant surprise to see her back in the spotlight.
3. (--) Igna Ibsdotter Lilleaas - Sentimental Value - The Norwegian actress has been constantly raved about since the film first premiered. There is usually a double nomination in one of the supporting categories, and this is absolutely the most likely version of that.
4. (--) Kirsten Dunst - Roofman - She looks amazing in that role. She got her first nomination just 4 years ago, and here she gets another chance with a wildly different tone. Maybe Roofman is too cool for the Oscars, but I expect this to be one of the out of nowhere hits of the season.
5. (--) Amy Madigan - Weapons - The makeup work on her does everything. She is a terrifying and memorable presence on screen, and she hasn’t been nominated in 39 years. This would be a cool comeback story and a nomination that seems bonkers on paper. However, in situations like Bridesmaids or Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, when there is a memorable and shocking supporting female performance, the Academy is not above letting it ride.
Others in contention
6. (--) Teyana Taylor - One Battle After Another - Her part is really small, but it is memorable. If the movie is really in for a huge night, then she could easily sneak in for her first nomination. In such a long movie, though, it is hard to see someone in just the first 20-ish minutes getting remembered at year’s end.
7. (--) Ariana Grande - Wicked: For Good - She was nominated last year, and this film seems to be much more focused on her character. It is not interesting to predict the same performance two years in a row. Ian McKellen couldn’t get in for either of the LOTR sequels, so I can’t predict Grande to do so just yet either.
8. (--) Jennifer Lopez - Kiss of the Spider Woman - She has gotten raves, even though the movie is not seen as the contender that we once thought it would be. She very nearly broke through for Hustlers just a handful of years ago, but this is absolutely the more Oscar friendly thing. If the movie is a sleeper hit, then she will easily make it into the top five.
9. (--) Emily Blunt - The Smashing Machine - The role has been criticized for being shallow and weak, but that is the same as her role in Oppenheimer. I don’t know what kind of reception this movie will get with audiences or the industry, but it is doing all the right things in the festival circuit. I almost like her chances as much as I do Dwayne Johnson’s chances, but I can’t quite get there.
10. (13) Jamie Lee Curtis - Ella McCay - She will be in the running because she was in a movie. Her role looks over the top and annoying, which sometimes works. There will be a contingent of Oscar voters who will vote for the James L Brooks film just because, and more specifically for JLC just because. I probably have her too low.
11. (9) Ayo Edibiri - After the Hunt - The movie’s chances have dwindled in recent weeks, but she is still one of the most likable actors working today, and she is in everything. The TV actor thing is real and not going anywhere. Keep an eye out for her.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Predicted Five
1. (1) Sentimental Value - Joachim Trier, Eskil Vogt - They got nominated for their last film, and this one has gotten even higher praise. This is basically a lock, as long as they do not botch their campaign.
2. (8) Jay Kelly - Noah Baumbach, Emily Mortimer - Baumbach is a regular at the Oscars at this point. The movie is about the industry, which only helps its cause. In any other year, he would be the clear frontrunner.
3. (--) It Was Just an Accident - Jafar Panahi - The foreign film that has gotten praised at every screening it has been shown at should be our across the board above-the-line contender. This is probably the least likely of its chances, but it is still a pretty solid choice here.
4. (21) Sinners - Ryan Coogler - This is the one spot I had mentioned Sinners back in January. It was a much bigger hit than anyone could have expected. It really cannot win here, but the love for the film and for Coogler should pretty firmly place it in the nominating five.
5. (--) A House of Dynamite - Noah Oppenheim - The movie has the trajectory of September 5 a year ago, which missed on all of its chances except in this category. Oppenheim previously wrote Jackie, so he is not a complete unknown to audiences or voters. It seems to be a really talky movie too, which helps.
Others in contention
6. (12) The Phoenician Scheme - Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola - The Wes Anderson machine continues to roll on. He has missed for his last couple weaker entries, but this is a return to form. They really do love the guy, and I can easily see this winding up on the list.
7. (9) Marty Supreme - Josh Safdie, Ronald Bronstein - I am being a little conservative with this movie, which we still know nothing about. It should be amazing, but it might not be. Uncut Gems was an all-timer, and it was snubbed in every category. We will see how much the brothers really need each other.
8. (13) Rental Family - Hikari, Stephen Blahut - This feels like a potential spoiler for one of the last couple spots, but the movie really needs to be a big hit with audiences. I have my doubts on that, but we have seen weirder things happen.
9. (--) Father, Mother, Sister, Brother - Jim Jarmusch - The Golden Lion winner needs to at least be mentioned here. Jarmusch has had a really interesting career, but he has never really been in contention for an Oscar nomination. This movie could be the type of material that brings him some love from the Academy for the first time.
10. (--) Weapons - Zach Cregger - The movie is a wild ride, and if the Academy is really willing to start to look at horror as a legitimate genre, then this could rise up the rankings. It would be a truly bizarre choice, though.
11. (--) The Secret Agent - Kleber Mendonça Filho - The movie is an International Feature contender, and we have seen multiple foreign films make it into the screenplay categories in the same year recently. The movie will need to be an indie hit when it gets its theatrical run.
12. (22) Roofman - Derek Cianfrance, Kirt Gunn - The movie is a comedy true story, and this category is the spot that the film stands the best chance at being recognized aside from its actors. Cianfrance has a lot of respect in the industry, and this would be a cool feather in his cap if he could take something like this to the ceremony.
13. (15) After the Hunt - Noah Garrett - Who knows how this will play…it could be just an actor show. Or it could be Doubt. It needs to actually be a box office hit for it to be resurrected.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Predicted Five
1. (2*) One Battle After Another - Paul Thomas Anderson - I originally had this in original, but it is almost certainly going to be pushed as an adapted screenplay. The movie is a lock to win here. I know we basically said that about Licorice Pizza, but that year had another overdue filmmaker they wanted to throw a bone to. This is the spot where the movie picks up its one big win.
2. (1) Hamnet - Chloe Zhao, Maggie O’Farrell - Zhao lost out on this category when Nomadland swept everywhere else. Her writing is probably the least interesting thing about her filmmaking, but this appears to be much more literary and showy than her previous films. This is a lock for a nomination.
3. (9) Bugonia - Will Tracy - His previous writing credit was The Menu, which was just as weird as this appears to be. However, the Academy cannot stop nominating Yorgos Lanthimos movies. The weirder the better here.
4. (7) No Other Choice - Park Chan-wook, Lee Kyoung-mi, Jahye Lee, Don McKellar - Here we go with yet another foreign film. Park will get a nomination at some point, and this one seems even more likely than Decision to Leave. He is more of a visual director, but when the movie is as undeniable as this one, it could get in everywhere.
5. (--) Is This Thing On? - Bradley Cooper, Will Arnett, Mark Chappell - Cooper has gotten nominated in this category before. I also really like the idea of Will Arnett getting his first Oscar nomination and being vaulted into “serious actor” territory. It appears to be a really personal project for those involved. I might be overselling this, but there needs to be one in there we haven’t seen or heard about yet.
Others in contention
6. (11) Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery - Rian Johnson - The previous two films got in. They are well-written, but is this really the Before trilogy? The movies aren’t that good. I think the Academy might just cut that trend here, but we shall see. If it gets in, then it might just be a Diane Warren-level locked up slot in this category every couple years.
7. (13) Frankenstein - Guillermo Del Toro - The movie needs to be a top five contender for Best Picture for this to happen. It could work, but adaptations of material this popular just rarely get recognized.
8. (--) Train Dreams - Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar - The duo got nominated just last year for Sing Sing. The movie will have eyeballs on it being a Netflix film, which is absolutely the best thing for it. If there is an out of nowhere push for Best Picture, I would put a small wager on it being Train Dreams.
9. (--) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere - Scott Cooper - After A Complete Unknown overperformed last year, anything is possible for these music biopics. I lean more with it being an Elvis or Bohemian Rhapsody, though.
10. (--) Nuremberg - James Vanderbilt - This is one of those films that is just custom built for the old Academy voter. Vanderbilt has never approached an Oscar contender, but don’t count out this film.
BEST CASTING
The Predicted Five
1. Wicked: For Good - Tiffany Little Canfield, Bernard Telsey - It probably would have won this category last year if it existed. The casting is what makes the film work. Is that how they will vote on this? Will it be just another SAG Ensemble thing? Will it be the perfect couple casting choices like BAFTA does? Will it be a true ensemble award? Will it be another award for the Best Picture? I think this is the clear one that qualifies for all of those.
2. One Battle After Another - Cassandra Kulukundis - The cast is huge, and most of the roles are pretty expertly cast. I don’t know who the casting directors are, or if there is some network of really popular ones. Kulukundis has a pretty modest track record so far, other than being the go-to for PTA.
3. Sentimental Value - Yngvill Kolset Haga, Avy Kaufman - The film could easily get 4+ acting nominations. It has American actors and foreign actors. They all appear to be at the top of their game. This seems like a safe bet.
4. Sinners - Francine Maisler - The casting of the movie is pretty brilliant. There are new faces, famous people, veterans, and people who just absolutely fit into their roles. Maisler also has another contender below.
5. Jay Kelly - Douglas Aibel, Nina Gold - This feels like the right direction to predict. The actors are all beloved, and they seem to fit into those roles in an almost meta way. It is likely a SAG Ensemble contender.
Others in contention
6. Hamnet - Nina Gold - The cast seems to be a bit smaller. She also was the co-casting director of Jay Kelly. I really have no idea how this goes. It is one of the Best Picture favorites, so maybe this is an afterthought. Or maybe they actually vote in a way that is interesting. Who knows? It’s exciting to have a little uncertainty!
7. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere - Francine Maisler - Maisler was mentioned above. If the Academy votes like BAFTA, then this could absolutely be a contender. They gave wins to things like Joker and Elvis, basically for finding the perfect lead actor. That might happen here.
8. A House of Dynamite - Susanne Scheel - This is a true ensemble piece. If it gets nominated at SAG, then this should be a real contender for the Oscar nom.
9. Is This Thing On? - Shayna Markowitz - This is the type of thing that would be an inspiring choice. It casts actors who you wouldn’t expect to be in these types of roles or films. We don’t know if the movie is good yet, but if it is, then the Academy will have no problems throwing more love at Bradley Cooper’s movie.
10. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery - Bret Howe, Mary Vernieu - This would be a shameless nomination the way that SAG used to do with movies like Bobby. The Knives Out movies have been really interesting groups of actors put together giving solid performances. That could be enough to be recognized here.
11. Rental Family - Kei Kawamura, Yumi Takada - Similar to Sentimental Value, it is the casting of Americans and foreign actors and blending it all together that makes this a unique contender. If the movie is the hit that it is expected to be, then I really like the chances of this being a top three contender in the category. But again, I have no idea how this category is going to be voted on.
There you go! What are your thoughts on these predictions? Did I overlook anything? What are your most anticipated movies for the rest of the year? Let us know in the comments!
