2018 Pre-Season Profile: Tampa Bay Rays

#27

The Tampa Bay Rays were very active late in the offseason in a way which left many scratching their head.  Will they be able to compete in 2018 after some of the more recent developments?

2017 Predictions

4th in AL East

Jake Odorizzi and Alex Cobb will be traded mid-season.

2017 Result

80-82, 3rd in AL East

Somehow, every year the Rays find a way to be relevant no matter what their roster looks like.  2017 seemed to be no exception as they almost finished .500 while spending minimum money.  This was mainly behind their incredibly strong pitching staff.  As for my Fearless Prediction, I was right but I just jumped the gun a little.

Additions / Subtractions

This is where the headlines were made this offseason for the Rays.  The Rays either traded or did not re-sign 5 of their top 6 players last year in WAR (Steven Souza, Logan Morrison, Evan Longoria, Corey Dickerson, and Alex Cobb).  They also traded Jake Odorizzi to the Twins.  The only additions to the current roster seem to be inconsequential, with players like C.J. Cron, Denard Span, and Carlos Gomez taking the spots of former Rays mainstays.  This offseason reshaped the Rays unlike any offseason in the franchise's history.

Most Important Hitter

Kevin Kiermaier

The one player in the Rays' top 6 in WAR that is still on the roster is Kevin Kiermaier, who happened to be first on that list.  The Rays' centerfielder is still considered one of the best defenders in the game, and his bat last year started to catch up with his glove.  However, he was also the most outspoken on the roster about his disapproval with the roster moves.  He is going to produce as always, but will he be a cancer in the clubhouse?  His attitude more than his production could help determine what kind of season the Rays have.

Most Important Pitcher

Blake Snell

Even with losing Odorizzi and Cobb, the Rays' rotation has always been their strength, and this year was to be no different.  However, with the losses of phenom Jose De Leon and top prospect Brent Honeywell in Spring Training (both to Tommy John), this once stellar position is now looking a little thin.  The key to their success this year is Blake Snell.  The Rays' former top prospect, Snell is now entering his third year of big league service.  He has been a serviceable starter, but has yet to become the ace everyone was anticipating.  This rotation is topped by Chris Archer, but Snell taking a big step forward would give them one of the best righty/lefty combinations at the top of the rotation in the league.  It could also help make up for what might be a struggling offense.

Prospect to Watch

Willy Adames

I was really looking forward to talking about Brent Honeywell here because I think he is going to be a star, but that will have to wait another year or two now.  The Rays have a very strong farm system, and it is topped by Honeywell and Willy Adames.  Yes, the Rays have prospects that are not pitchers.  Adames has the potential to join the current group of superstar shortstops in the league over the next few years.  If 2018 falls apart, Adames might get his chance to show what he can do sooner rather than later.

2018 Prediction

5th in AL East

This has been such a strange offseason.  Even though we are well into Spring Training, moves are still being made that have major impacts on teams.  I originally said the Rays would finish 3rd in the AL East.  They always seem to find a way to compete no matter what their roster looks like.  Then they traded Steven Souza.  Then they traded Jake Odorizzi.  Then they traded Corey Dickerson.  Then De Leon and Honeywell were out for the season.  In a week or two of Spring Training, they went from being able to compete at .500 baseball again to probably being irrelevant this season.  I hope I am wrong.  Baseball is always more interesting when teams like the Rays and the A's continue to find ways to compete.

Fearless Prediction

Chris Archer and Kevin Kiermaier will be traded mid-season.

Kiermaier is obviously frustrated and wants out of Tampa.  He has been very vocal about that.  Although Archer hasn't been as vocal, there have been trade rumors surrounding him more than any other Ray all offseason.  There is no point in trading away all the talent they did unless you truly start over and trade your most valuable assets.  Kiermaier and Archer are young enough to anchor the new wave, but they will want to compete before then.  Look for them to be at the center of the rumor mill come Trade Deadline in July.

2018 Pre-Season Profile: Cincinnati Reds

#28

The Cincinnati Reds definitely seem like a team that is headed in the right direction.  Will 2018 be the year they start competing again?

2017 Predictions

5th in NL Central

Zack Cozart will be traded before the All Star Break.

2017 Results

68-94, 5th in NL Central

For the past few seasons, the Reds have been trying to hit the reset button on their franchise, but they seem reluctant to completely blow up their roster.  A few years ago, they waited too long to finally trade Brandon Phillips, and they chose to hold on to Zack Cozart last season instead of trade him at the Deadline.  The positive for the Reds last year was a very productive lineup.  They had six players hit over 20 home runs.  The pitching was pretty horrible, earning a team ERA of 5.17 throughout the season.  When their second best starter in terms of WAR was a guy that only started four games at the end of the season, there is a bit of a problem.

Additions / Subtractions

Instead of trading Cozart mid-season last season, they let him walk in free agency and sign with the Angels.  They really didn't make any additions to their roster beyond welcoming back guys like Anthony DeSclafani and Brandon Finnegan from injury.

Most Important Hitter

Billy Hamilton

The Reds have some prolific power hitters.  From an established star like Joey Votto to emerging stars like Adam Duvall, Scott Schebler, and Eugenio Suarez, the Reds know how to put the ball out of the park.  What would help is if they had more guys on base when those balls leave the park.  Billy Hamilton is well known as one of the fastest players in the game and one of the best defensive centerfielders as well.  So when he ends 2017 with a 1.0 WAR, it's obvious his bat is a liability.  He finished the season with a 66 OPS+ (league average is 100).  If Billy Hamilton can round out his game and hit .280 instead of under .250, then the Reds' lineup will be that much more potent.

Most Important Pitcher

Homer Bailey

The Reds threw some money at Homer Bailey back in 2014, thinking they had one of the more talented young arms in the game.  However, after signing his 6 year $105 million contract, injuries completely derailed his career.  After breaking 200 innings in 2012 and 2013, he only reached 145 innings in 2014, which has been the only time he has broken 100 innings under the new contract.  2017 saw Bailey pitch enough to show he might finally be close to fully healthy.  The first step to the Reds' pitching staff having more success this season is Homer Bailey starting to earn some of the money the Reds have been paying him the last few years.

Prospect to Watch

Tyler Mahle

That starting pitcher I mentioned that was the Reds' second best starter in terms of WAR last season?  That was Tyler Mahle.  He was called up late in the season, started 4 games, and had some success, posting a 2.70 ERA in 20 innings.  One of the best prospects in the Reds' system and only 23 years old, Mahle should play a big role in the Reds' rotation this season and beyond.

2018 Prediction

5th in NL Central

As great as the Reds' offense is, the pitching is that bad.  The Reds will be able to outscore some teams, but that is not sustainable.  They need to consider signing one of the veteran starting pitchers that are still available to stabilize their staff.  They do have some good years in front of them, but they need to wait for a few more of their arms to develop in the minors.  By the time flamethrower and 2017 top draft pick Hunter Greene is ready in a few years, the Reds will be ready to compete.

Fearless Prediction

This will be Bryan Price's last season at the Reds' manager.

I honestly don't understand how he still has his job.  Bryan Price's background is as a pitching coach, yet he has had zero success developing any of the Reds' pitchers so far.  This will be his 5th season at the helm for the Reds, and in that time the pitching has been the team's weakness.  You would think a pitching coach would improve the pitching a little bit?  I predicted this firing 2 years ago, and yet he is still around after two more terrible years.  He has to be nearing the end of his leash, right?

2018 Pre-Season Profile: Detroit Tigers

#29

The Detroit Tigers started to hit the reset button on their roster at the end of 2017.  Was it enough to compete with a new core in 2018, or will they have further to fall before they get better?

My 2017 Predictions

3rd in NL Central

Brad Ausmus will be fired mid-season.

2017 Results

64-98, 5th in NL Central

The Tigers were a much better team than their final record ended up showing.  However, once they decided to start selling key pieces like Justin Upton, J.D. Martinez, and Justin Verlander, the season went south in a hurry.  Brad Ausmus was always touted as one of those players that would make a great manager, but his marriage with the Tigers was a trainwreck.  I predicted he would be fired mid-season.  It was announced he would be fired before the end of the season, but he was allowed to finish the year.  I hope he gets another opportunity to manage at some point.  I am not willing to write him off as a failure just yet.

Additions / Subtractions

The Tigers continued to transition into re-build mode throughout the offseason.  The biggest name moved over the offseason was All Star second baseman Ian Kinsler being traded to the Angels.  There were rumors surrounding players like Miguel Cabrera and Michael Fulmer, but nothing ever materialized.  Outside of a a veteran signing here or there of guys like Leonys Martin, the Tigers felt content with developing a new young core alongside the remaining veterans they can't / refuse to move.  Possibly the biggest offseason transaction was hiring Ron Gardenhire as their new manager.  One of the most respected coaches in all of baseball, Gardenhire will be a welcome stabilizing force after the dysfunction that marred Ausmus's tenure as manager.

Most Important Hitter

Miguel Cabrera

Even through a rebuild, the Tigers start and end with Miguel Cabrera.  We seemed to watch him age 10 years before our eyes during 2017, going from one of the greatest offensive forces of his generation to a broken down veteran on the brink of retirement in one season.  In his age 34 season, Miggy had a negative WAR in 2017.  Outside of his rookie season, he has only posted a WAR below 3.0 once (his first season in Detroit).  There has to more in the tank, at least the Tigers are hoping so.  He is under a behemoth contract through 2023, with two option years on top of that.  Cabrera needs to be more than the shell of himself he was in 2017, either so Detroit can get more production out of his contract or to give him trade value so someone is convinced he is worth dealing for.  Either way, this is an important year for Miggy and his relationship with the Tigers.

Most Important Pitcher

Daniel Norris

Daniel Norris was the key piece the Tigers received back in the David Price trade with the Blue Jays in 2015.  He was thought to be a potential ace of the staff moving forward.  However, his Tiger career has been defined by injuries and disappointment instead of production and success.  The ability of a player like Norris to finally deliver on his potential will determine how long this Tiger rebuild will take.

Prospect to Watch

Franklin Perez

Franklin Perez was the key piece Detroit got back in last year's Justin Verlander trade with the Astros.  Sometimes, it takes years to see the true results of a prospect-laden deal like this one, however Perez has a good chance of playing a role for the Tigers this season.  This 20 year-old hurler should be a fun rookie to watch the second half of this season, especially if the Tigers are out of contention.

2018 Prediction

5th in AL Central

Unfortunately, it looks like the Tigers are still working their way down to rock bottom before they can start getting better.  They do have some decent prospects working through their system, especially on the pitching end, but most are not as close to contributing as Perez.  They remind me of the Philadelphia Phillies a couple years ago.  They got stuck being over-committed to some veterans past their prime that they needed to stick with before they could move on and improve.  The Tigers are hoping this isn't the case quite yet with guys like Cabrera, Victor Martinez, and Jordan Zimmermann, but they are looking more like terrible investments that will hurt the franchise for the next few years.  The highlights of the Tigers' season will occur in July when Tiger legends Alan Trammel and Jack Morris are inducted into the Hall of Fame.

Fearless Prediction

2018 will be Victor Martinez's last season, and he will not finish it on the Tigers' roster.

Victor Martinez is entering his age 39 season, which is also a contract year for him.  After injuries plagued his 2017 season, Martinez needs to show he can still be of value to a team.  Either he shows there is still a little in the tank and gets traded to a contender, or he shows that the tank is empty and the Tigers release him.  Either way, he doesn't end the season as a Tiger, and this is probably his last dance.

2018 Pre-Season Profile: Miami Marlins

#30

It is a magical time of year.  Pitchers and catchers have reported to Spring Training, and the rest of the players are not far behind.  We are less than a week away from the first Spring Training game, and before we know it, we will be in the middle of another outstanding baseball season.  This offseason has been unlike any other, with many of the top free agents still looking for jobs as camps open.  Players are looking to cash in with big contracts while clubs are scared of signing the latest free agent bust.  The trade market has been rich, with many teams searching for alternate solutions to upgrade their roster.  As I start my pre-season profiles for each club, there are still many unanswered questions for many players and many teams.

As we go from last to first, we start with one of the most active teams of the offseason as they seemed determined to go from average and emerging to terrible and rebuilding.

My 2017 Predictions

4th in NL East

The Marlins will trade for Jose Quintana mid-season.

2017 Results
77-85, 2nd in NL East

The Marlins finished with almost the exact same record as they did in 2016, however the weak NL East had them finish in second.  After tragically losing one of the faces of the franchise in Jose Fernandez at the end of the 2016 season, their other face, Giancarlo Stanton, had a career year that ended in him winning the NL MVP award.  I thought the Marlins might make some moves to really try and compete, with the starting rotation being the biggest hole in their roster.  Instead of making a splash for a guy like Quintana, the splash came in the new ownership group that was in place by the time the season ended.

Additions / Subtractions

With Derek Jeter & Co. now owning the Marlins, the philosophy of the franchise took a complete 180.  Instead of trying to find new ways to complement their strong lineup, the new ownership group decided the status quo was not sustainable financially.  If they needed to shed payroll, they needed to just blow up the current core and start over.  That is exactly what they did.  Gone are All Star caliber players like Dee Gordon, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, and reigning MVP Stanton along with the hundreds of millions of dollars committed to them.  Prospects were brought back, but some of the trades were simply salary dumps when you see the level of prospects they got in return.  The franchise had a complete reset, with second baseman Starlin Castro being the only established major leaguer brought back in any transaction.

Most Important Hitter

J.T. Realmuto

Along with Justin Bour, Realmuto is one of only two remaining members of the former Marlins core still on the roster, and he is not happy about it.  He has been very vocal this offseason about the fact that he wants to be traded as well so he has a chance to compete.  This makes him valuable to the Marlins because if they do decide to move him (which might be necessary if he becomes a cancer in the locker room) he should bring back a decent haul.  Yelich brought back the best haul of the offseason trades.  A similar haul might be in the cards for Realmuto, a 27 year old catcher with pop getting ready to enter his prime.

Most Important Pitcher

Jose Urena

In a year where the pitching staff was the downfall of the Marlins, Urena was a bright spot in 2017, going well over 100 innings for the first time in his career.  He was effective in those innings, earning 14 wins, a 3.82 ERA, and a 106 ERA+.  This makes him the only Marlins pitcher with more than 10 starts that was above league average (ERA+ 100).  All of this is promising, considering he is only entering his age 26 season.  This may be the future ace of the staff if he isn't already.  He may be one of the few things Marlins fans have to look forward to.

Prospect to Watch

Lewis Brinson

By far, the best prospect the Marlins got in their wheeling and dealing this offseason was Lewis Brinson from the Brewers in the Yelich deal.  He has been one of the top prospects for the last few years in all of baseball, and he is slated to be the Marlins Opening Day centerfielder.  He has a real chance of becoming a star and a new face of the new Marlins for the foreseeable future.

2018 Prediction

5th in NL East

Almost by design, the Marlins have the worst roster in the league by a decent amount.  They seem to be trying to employ the Astros blueprint of success.  Tear down to nothing and rebuild around some top draft picks.  The problem with this method is it takes several years to see any results.  Expect at least two or three 100 loss seasons before the Marlins improve.

Fearless Prediction

Half of the Marlins Opening Day starting lineup will not be on the roster by season's end.

The Marlins can't be done unloading pieces.  They should probably pick up a couple veteran players that are still in free agency to fill out their roster so they can at least look respectable on Opening Day.  However, look for players like Martin Prado, Starlin Castro, J.T. Realmuto, Justin Bour, Dan Straily, Wei-Yin Chen, and whatever veterans they might pick up along the way to either be traded or dropped by season's end.

Reactions to the Oscar Nominations: 2018

Academy Award nominee Kobe Bryant…yeah that sounds weird. The nominations for the 90^th Annual Academy Awards came out this morning, and there were some surprises. There were not the typical shockers like Tommy Lee Jones in In the Valley of Elah, but there were some notable snubs, chief among them being the director of the frontrunner for Best Picture Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Check out my reactions to all of the categories below, as well as how my predictions did and my Top 10 Coolest First-time nominees (stacked list this year) and the Top 10 Biggest Snubs…enjoy!

BEST PICTURE
Call Me by Your Name

Darkest Hour

Dunkirk

Get Out

Lady Bird

Phantom Thread

The Post

The Shape of Water

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Predicted: 7 for 9

Reactions: Rounding out my top 10 predicted were The Big Sick, Mudbound, and The Florida Project. The big surprise here is Darkest Hour, which has been ignored for everything all season other than Gary Oldman’s eventual Oscar for Best Actor. Phantom Thread had issues with the screeners getting to voters in time, but it is good to know that the Academy at least took notice. Due to how the next category stacked up, we have maybe the most unpredictable and wide open race (probably 4 legitimate contenders for the top prize) that I can remember.

Preliminary prediction: Lady Bird

BEST DIRECTOR

Paul Thomas Anderson – Phantom Thread

Guillermo del Toro – The Shape of Water

Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird

Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk

Jordan Peele – Get Out

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: The Golden Globe winner of the Best Picture frontrunner got snubbed for Best Director. This race was always going to be Guillermo del Toro anyway, but that shakes up things quite a bit. Three Billboards already is seeing the backlash to some viewers’ reservations about the how racism is handled in the movie. It took longer for people to turn on La La Land. Without a Directing nomination, chances are incredibly thin for Martin McDonagh’s film. Argo was able to overcome it, but that was a rarity. Jordan Peele, Greta Gerwig, and PTA…this category is amazing! I had Spielberg and McDonagh making the list in my predictions.

Preliminary prediction: Guillermo del Toro

BEST ACTOR

Timothee Chalamet – Call Me by Your Name

Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread

Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out

Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour

Denzel Washington – Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Predicted: 5 for 5

Reactions: The ill-timed sexual harassment allegations against James Franco took its toll. This is exactly what I expected to happen here. I always thought Franco was on the fringe anyway, and with the Phantom Thread screeners not making it to SAG voters in time, it makes sense that DDL would take his rightful place in this race in his “final” movie.

Preliminary prediction: Gary Oldman

BEST ACTRESS

Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water

Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Margot Robbie – I, Tonya

Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird

Meryl Streep – The Post

Predicted: 5 for 5

Reactions: There was really no other option here. It would have been awesome to see Jessica Chastain in Molly’s Game, but when Streep is on the edge, she is always going to win out.

Preliminary prediction: Frances McDormand

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project

Woody Harrelson – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water

Christopher Plummer – All the Money in the World

Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had Armie Hammer over Harrelson. I actually think the double nomination for Three Billboards is detrimental to Rockwell’s chances. It really sucks for Armie Hammer. He deserved to be in there. Also, Michael Stuhlbarg was in three Best Picture nominees (first time since 2002 that has happened), but he was not rewarded with a nomination like John C. Reilly was 15 years ago.

Preliminary prediction: Willem Dafoe

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Mary J. Blige – Mudbound

Allison Janney – I, Tonya

Lesley Manville – Phantom Thread

Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird

Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: Apparently Hong Chau’s film was hated enough to take her out of the running. I had her making it alongside Holly Hunter. This is an ok lineup. Manville is pretty much out of nowhere, but she should have gotten nominated for Mike Leigh’s Another Year in the past. Octavia Spencer could become the annual also-ran in this category. If Lady Bird is going to win Best Picture, then I think this will be where is will (rightly) be rewarded to give it another win.

Preliminary prediction: Laurie Metcalf

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Big Sick

Get Out

Lady Bird

The Shape of Water

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had The Post making it, and I’m glad I’m wrong. But…who voted for The Post for Best Picture!? Obviously the SAG shutout implies that it wasn’t actors. The directors didn’t even nominate Spielberg. It got snubbed here, despite being a journalism movie written by an Oscar winner. They didn’t even nominate John Williams. Yet…5% somehow had it as their #1 of the year. Ridiculous…

Preliminary prediction: Lady Bird

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Call Me by Your Name

The Disaster Artist

Logan

Molly’s Game

Mudbound

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: Logan is now the first superhero movie to be nominated for its screenplay. I had All the Money in the World in my predictions for this category, the worst screenplay category I can remember. James Ivory is 90 and has never won an Oscar…this is his year.

Preliminary prediction: Call Me by Your Name

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Blade Runner 2049

Darkest Hour

Dunkirk

Mudbound

The Shape of Water

Predicted: 5 for 5

Reactions: Rachel Morrison (Mudbound) becomes the first female DOP nominated for an Oscar. This has got to finally be the time for Roger Deakins…right?

Preliminary prediction: Blade Runner 2049

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Blade Runner 2049

Beauty and the Beast

Darkest Hour

Dunkirk

The Shape of Water

Predicted: 5 for 5

Reactions: These were pretty much the obvious nominees, mixing fantasy and period pieces.

Preliminary prediction: The Shape of Water

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Beauty and the Beast

Darkest Hour

Phantom Thread

The Shape of Water

Victoria & Abdul

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I went more conventional with Murder on the Orient Express and The Greatest Showman, but I guess these period pieces are more Oscary. If The Shape of Water starts picking up awards like this, then we could be in for a sweep.

Preliminary prediction: Phantom Thread

BEST SOUND MIXING

Baby Driver

Blade Runner 2049

Dunkirk

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

The Shape of Water

Predicted: 5 for 5

Reactions: These pretty much are the prestigious technical achievement films of the year…and Baby Driver, which is just an awesome movie.

Preliminary prediction: The Shape of Water

BEST FILM EDITING

Baby Driver

Dunkirk

I, Tonya

The Shape of Water

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: Get Out getting snubbed here is detrimental to its Best Picture chances, and it was in favor of a joke of a nomination for I, Tonya. Lady Bird misses as well. Usually the Best Picture winner is also nominated here, but Birdman bucked the trend a few years ago. The new voting structure keeps everything wide open.

Preliminary prediction: Dunkirk

BEST SOUND EFFECTS EDITING

Baby Driver

Blade Runner 2049

Dunkirk

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

The Shape of Water

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: Baby Driver is this year’s The Bourne Ultimatum. I had Wonder Woman (shut out, BTW) in over Blade Runner. These are probably the right nominees though. Usually a terrible action movie is mentioned here, but the voters had good action movies to play with.

Preliminary prediction: Dunkirk

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Blade Runner 2049

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2

Kong: Skull Island

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

War for the Planet of the Apes

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had Best Picture nominees The Shape of Water and Dunkirk in there. With this group, it looks wide open. If they want to reward Star Wars for something, it might need to be here.

Preliminary prediction: War for the Planet of the Apes

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Darkest Hour

Victoria & Abdul

Wonder

Predicted: 2 for 3

Reactions: I had the more showy makeup work in Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 in there over the hairstyling work in the Dame Judi Dench film. This is Darkest Hour, easy.

Preliminary prediction: Darkest Hour

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“The Mystery of Love” – Call Me by Your Name

“Remember Me” – Coco

“Stand Up for Something” – Marshall

“Mighty River” – Mudbound

“This is Me” – The Greatest Showman

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I predicted a couple documentaries to get their songs in there, which is usually how it goes. This is a more star packed group. Mary J. Blige, Oscar-winner Common, Diane Warren, the EGOT winning Robert and Kristen Lopez. I’ll go with Blige.

Preliminary prediction: “Mighty River”

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Dunkirk

Phantom Thread

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

The Shape of Water

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had The Post in there. This category just further cements the strange snub of McDonagh for Director since the movie he created and oversaw got nominated in all of the important categories. The Shape of Water’s music just sounds like an Oscar winning score.

Preliminary prediction: The Shape of Water

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Abacus: Small Enough to Jail

Faces Places

Incarus

Last Men in Aleppo

Strong Island

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had popular choices Jane and City of Ghosts getting nominated. I have not seen any of these, but Faces Places is the definite critical favorite, so for now…I’ll predict that.

Preliminary prediction: Faces Places

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

A Fantastic Woman

The Insult

Loveless

On Body and Soul

The Square

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had the Golden Globe-winning In the Fade and Foxtrot getting nominated. This category is always impossible to predict the nominees. This seems like a good group though. The Cannes winner makes a rare appearance.

Preliminary prediction: A Fantastic Woman

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

The Boss Baby

The Breadwinner

Coco

Ferdinand

Loving Vincent

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: The new voting rules allowing every Academy member to vote on this category means we get more The Boss Baby and less Mary and the Witch’s Flower. Kobe Bryant’s Dear Basketball was nominated for Best Animated Short…which is awesome. Coco takes this in a walk.

Preliminary prediction: Coco

Overall predictions: 83/107; 77.57% (74.77% in 2017)

Without the last 5 categories: 66/82; 80.49% (78.05% in 2017)

On the Big 8 categories: 35/44; 77.77% (83.72% in 2017)

10 COOLEST FIRST TIME NOMINEES

1. Sam Rockwell

2. Jordan Peele

3. Greta Gerwig

4. Kobe Bryant

5. Kumail Nanjiani and Emily V. Gordon

6. Mary J. Blige

7. Timothee Chalamet

8. Allison Janney

9. Daniel Kaluuya

10. Margot Robbie

10 WORST SNUBS

1. Martin McDonagh for Best Director

2. Armie Hammer for Best Supporting Actor

3. Get Out for Best Editing

4. Blade Runner 2049 for Original Score

5. The Killing of a Sacred Deer for Best Cinematography

6. Michael Stuhlbarg for Best Supporting Actor

7. Luca Guadagnino for Best Director

8. James Franco for Best Actor

9. Wonder Woman for all technical categories

10. Jessica Chastain for Best Actress

Stay tuned for our 10th Annual Oscar Challenge!