2012 Oscar Predictions: October

The Oscar race has started to take shape in the last couple months. A handful of the projected contenders have come out in theaters to overall mixed reception. There are still most of the Oscar movies waiting to get released, which is probably for the best, because by that time all of these movies will have already disappointed and been forgotten. Here is how I see the race looking as of right now:

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

1. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close - The trailer looks alright, but the Academy will eat this up.

2. The Descendents – I do not know if they want to give Payne two consecutive Oscars, but the early word on this is fantastic, despite the underwhelming trailers.

3. War Horse – This movie is likely one of the frontrunners, and those are always nominated for screenplay.

4. The Ides of March – The screenplay is really tight, but the reviews for this were not necessarily unanimous. This category is the best shot it has, though.

5. The Help – The box office performance is astonishing for this movie. That will translate into a massive Oscar push and likely quite a bit of success.

Others in contention

6. Moneyball – Leftover love for The Social Network might help Sorkin, but I am not convinced that this category is the lock it once appeared to be.

7. Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy – This is not having great early reviews, but this seems like the British movie that could take the Academy by storm.

8. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo – The trailers have been amazing, but it may be too similar to the original and too soon. We will see how this is perceived, but the script will likely be top notch.

9. Carnage – The trailer looks pretty amazing, but these limited character films do not normally get screenplay nominations. Look for massive Golden Globe love for this one.

10. A Dangerous Method – This movie is a wildcard. No one really knows what to expect, but the trailers are great. Cronenberg has not made a bad movie in a long time.

11. We Need to Talk About Kevin – This could be the gritty indie comedy that the Academy loves, but I am not convinced yet. Acting nominations are more likely.

12. We Bought a Zoo – Wasn’t enthusiastic about the trailer, but this is its most likely nomination spot.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

1. The Artist – This is Oscar stuff. Nothing really else to say.

2. Yong Adult – Reitman movies seem to just always be in the running for this category. Cody will get her second nomination for sure.

3. Midnight in Paris – Woody Allen’s biggest box office ever and his movie creative script in over 15 years.

4. Like Crazy – The Sundance darling will certainly have its Academy following. I am betting this will sweep audiences off their collective feet.

5. The Tree of Life – I am still holding out hope that this will get major Oscar nominations, foolishly maybe.

Others in contention

6. J. Edgar – The trailer was not a big hit, but with Clint at the helm, it is never out of the running.

7. Martha Marcy May Marlene – The last two films of this type were nominated for screenplay, but will the Oscars go for more light films this year? Possibly.

8. Take This Waltz – Sarah Polley’s second film is way under the radar, hopefully not too far.

9. Bridesmaids – Horrible movie that everyone apparently loved. But if Apatow cannot get nominated, why would this?

10. Beginners – This just wreaks of being that movie like Another Year that will sneak into the screenplay category at the last possible second after being completely written off.

11. Rampart – Moverman was nominated for his last film, which was similarly under the radar.

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Sandra Bullock – Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close – Her part in the trailer looks really good, and it takes a lot for me to compliment her.

2. Judi Dench – J. Edgar – Default nominee in this category. The actor branch adores her.

3. Octavia Spencer – The Help – This is the kind of odd, likable character that get mentioned in this category.

4. Jessica Chastain – The Help – The best in the cast, plus with her insane year, she will need to get nominated for one of them. This is her most memorable part.

5. Vanessa Redgrave – Coriolanus – She is becoming more and more likely to get nominated here. That movie is a dark horse.

Others in contention

6. Berenice Bejo – The Artist – Unknown actress, but she is said to steal the show.

7. Keira Knightley – A Dangerous Method – She appears to be the best in the cast from the trailer, but she has shined before in more Oscar material and not gotten in.

8. Kate Winslet – Carnage – Who knows if she or the rest of the cast is going lead or supporting?

9. Jessica Chastain – The Tree of Life, Take Shelter, Coriolanus – She will get in for one of these if she doesn’t for The Help.

10. Sarah Silverman – Take This Waltz – I do not want to completely count her out. I have faith in this movie. Maybe I am the only one who cares.

11. Elizabeth Reaser – Young Adult – I do not even think she was in the trailer, but she could come out of nowhere.

12. Melissa McCarthy – Bridesmaids – I would die a little inside if she gets nominated.

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Kenneth Branagh – My Week with Marilyn – This is going to be a big role, and the British will certainly get behind him.

2. Christopher Plummer – Beginners – This performance is perhaps the most beloved of the year’s first half and could very well take it all the way to the Oscars.

3. Brad Pitt – The Tree of Life – This is that one forgotten amazing performance that will get overlooked everywhere but the Oscars. Mark my words.

4. Niels Arestrup – War Horse – He is the dark horse in the competition because he is relatively unknown to American audiences but will certainly steal the show in his scenes.

5. Patton Oswalt – Young Adult – His part in the trailer was more significant than I had anticipated. Looks to be a scene-stealer.

Others in contention

6. Albert Brooks – Drive – After seeing the movie, I realized his part, while impressive, is just too small. His veteran card will get him some mentions, but he will fall just short here.

7. Max von Sydow – Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close – He may have to keep waiting for that inevitable Honorary Oscar.

8. Jonah Hill – Moneyball – The best performance in the movie. His part is so interesting and spot-on that he has a real shot here.

9. Jim Broadbent – The Iron Lady – Playing opposite Streep has its benefits.

10. Viggo Mortensen – A Dangerous Method – Said to be great in this film directed by the guy who got him his first nom.

11. Armie Hammer – J. Edgar – This could be the Brolin in Milk/Giamatti in Cinderella Man “sorry we forgot you last year” nomination.

12. Tom Hanks – Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close – He is never really out of it.

13. John C. Reilly – Carnage – Being directed by Polanski is always a plus.

14. Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Ides of March – Had a couple terrific scenes, but his cast was just as good.

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Michelle Williams – My Week with Marilyn – It is hard to see her not at least getting nominated for this role. She has to be the frontrunner.

2. Meryl Streep – The Iron Lady – I see her getting nominated obviously, but winning just may never happen for her again.

3. Rooney Mara – The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo – The trailer almost locked her into this category if she is indeed lead. The original was more about the Craig character.

4. Elizabeth Olsen – Martha Marcy May Marlene – Everything I hear is raves for Olsen. She will probably get in.

5. Viola Davis – The Help – I fear that going lead will hurt her chances, but her raves were so universal that it is hard to see a scenario where she doesn’t get in.

Others in contention

6. Kristen Dunst – Melancholia – She won at Cannes, but the film may be too weird for the Oscars. I have faith in her though.

7. Glenn Close – Albert Nobbs – She has the transformation role that normally gets nominated, but she is often overlooked.

8. Felicity Jones – Like Crazy – She could be one of the new faces in the crowd.

9. Tilda Swinton – We Need to Talk About Kevin – Her role promises to be gutsy, and the initial reviews have put the spotlight on her role.

10. Jodie Foster – Carnage – It is hard to judge the category placement for any of the actors in this.

11. Charlize Theron – Young Adult – She will probably be terrific in this, but a nomination seems unlikely considering the work she does between her really good roles.

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Jean Dujardin – The Artist – I do not know why, but I feel like this is the most likely winner in any major category at this point.

2. George Clooney – The Descendents – This is almost a lock for a nomination.

3. Leonardo DiCaprio – J. Edgar – It is hard to see the Academy not nominating DiCaprio for this role that he will likely nail.

4. Gary Oldman – Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy – Everyone knows he is the best living actor without a nomination. If he is half good in this, he will get nominated.

5. Brad Pitt – Moneyball – His superstar status and likability will get him tons of notices. If he takes home a critic award or two and secures BFCA and HFPA nominations, then this is a foregone conclusion.

Others in contention

6. Michael Fassbender – Shame – Talks of NC-17 are scary, but it didn’t hurt Michelle Williams last year.

7. Woody Harrelson – Rampart – Maybe my most anticipated film, Harrelson will likely own in his second Moverman film.

8. Christoph Waltz – Carnage – Who knows?

9. Michael Shannon – Take Shelter – This looks amazing, and Shannon is always cool to see in the race.

10. Ryan Gosling – Drive – This is his most likely nomination for his huge year.

11. Paul Giamatti – Win Win – We wrote off Richard Jenkins for his early year release in a McCarthy film too. I wouldn’t completely count him out.

12. Sean Penn – This Must be the Place – I have no clue about this movie, but from the pictures I have seen, Penn will likely overplay it. That is usually enough for him at the Oscars.

BEST DIRECTOR

The Predicted Five

1. Stephen Daldry – Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close – Maybe they will just finally give him a win so that they can stop nominating him for everything.

2. Michel Hazanavicius – The Artist – Will get nominated for sure, but can he win?

3. Steven Spielberg – War Horse – Seems like a lock to many, but I am not convinced that this will live up to the hype.

4. Terrence Malick – The Tree of Life – I hope I am right about this. The Tree of Life is all Malick. It is foolish to think that he does not deserve a nomination at least.

5. David Fincher – The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo - Maybe this is the ultimate wishful thinking, but I believe in him and the material.

Others in contention

6. Jason Reitman – Young Adult­ – Always in the running, but this may be a bit too light.

7. Alexander Payne – The Descendents – I am not sold on it, but everyone who has seen it is. Good enough for me.

8. Clint Eastwood – J. Edgar – Can they continue to snub him?

9. Tate Taylor – The Help – His film is poised for a huge Best Picture push, which immediately makes him a possibility.

10. Tomas Alfredson – Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy – His film may get in, but his recognition may have to still wait.

11. Woody Allen – Midnight in Paris – I am really curious to see how this is remembered in the coming months.

12. George Clooney – The Ides of March – Well-directed film, but reviews were not exactly what we were hoping for.

13. Nicolas Winding Refn – Drive – Could be the coolest nomination since William Hurt if it happens. He will need a couple critic awards to be taken completely seriously, though, even after his Cannes win.

14. Bennett Miller – Moneyball – If his movie is popular enough, then he could get swept in. It wasn’t quite as impressive work as Capote, however.

15. Angelina Jolie – In the Land of Blood and Honey – It is said to be epic and beautiful in the tradition of classic Oscar movies. Will anyone see this in time?

BEST PICTURE

The Predicted Ten (I predict 7 will get nominated)

1. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close – Trailer looks corny, but the 10 year anniversary of 9/11 helps more than we may realize. They may want something inspiring and weepy.

2. The Artist – It is hard to see the actors branch not making this one of the films to beat.

3. The Help – The love for this film is bigger than anyone could have thought. A Best Picture nomination seems almost locked, and I cannot believe I am saying that.

4. War Horse – Whether it is good or not, it will get nominated. See: Munich.

5. The Tree of Life – There are enough Malick fans and fans of the film in general that it will likely get the 5% of the votes needed. Plus, the love/hate intrigue will probably add an interesting storyline to the race, which the AMPAS is always looking for.

6. The Descendents – Alexander Payne movies are usually loved, but this one seems much more like a critics film than an Oscar movie. It will likely snag one of the last spots.

7. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo – The release date certainly helps. If it leaves everyone breathless, that will translate into a nomination here while it is fresh on everyone’s mind.

8. Moneyball – Everyone seemed to really enjoy it, but is this really Best Picture material?

9. J. Edgar – It screams Oscar, but the bias against Eastwood is hard to ignore.

10. Young Adult – I am not counting this completely out, but the trailer may be too much comedy and not quite enough dramedy.

Others in contention

11. Like Crazy – This is major dark horse in all categories.

12. Midnight in Paris – I have no clue if anyone will remember this, but if they do, it could get nominated for sure.

13. Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy – This is one of the biggest British threats. They may jump behind it. And does this remind anyone else of The Departed?

14. Martha Marcy May Marlene – The status of this is somewhat unknown. Could it pull a Winter’s Bone?

15. The Ides of March – It seems like more of a Golden Globe film than an Oscar film.

16. Carnage – With potential acting nominations all around, it would be foolish to count it out.

17. Rampart – Sometimes under the radar is the best place to be.

18. In the Land of Blood and Honey – Just because we never know how much the AMPAS loves Hollywood’s most beloved couple.

So, that’s what I got. There are still a ton of films that I have not seen and that no one has really seen, so in the next month and a half, these lists will be whittled down significantly. What do you think? Anything I overlooked? Have you seen any of these at festivals and can provide insight into their award potential? Let me know.

Power Rankings: Most Bankable Hollywood Actors

Seeing how Moneyball is set to make a scorcher at the box office for no reason other than the fact that Brad Pitt is the lead, it got me thinking about who the most bankable actors are in the industry currently. By bankable, I am referring to box office guarantee, in terms of return on investment. The actors on this list can appear in almost anything and turn it into a box office smash. Every one of them has at least one flop, though, proving that it is impossible for anyone to be a complete guarantee. I am not holding independent films or supporting roles against them, since those films are reliant more on distribution and other actors than their own contribution to the film. For each actor, I will do a rundown of the past ten years or so, and I will give what I think is their single most impressive box office gross of their career as well as a notable flop. Note: I am only including actors (not actresses) because it would just be too difficult to combine them (meaning putting Sandra Bullock on the list).

Others receiving votes: Matt Damon, Leonardo DiCaprio, Tyler Perry, Seth Rogen, Denzel Washington

10. Tom Hanks

Most Impressive Box Office: Forrest Gump: $673 million ($55 million budget)

Notable Flop: Angels and Demons: $133 million ($150 million budget)

Ten years ago, Tom Hanks might have been topped this list. Now, however, since he is doing a lot more production work and less acting, his star has fallen a bit. Still, whenever he makes a movie, people want to see it. Larry Crowne had a decent run at the box office, despite not being all that good. His last big hit was The Terminal (excluding Toy Story 3), and that was 7 years ago. Angels and Demons was nowhere near as big as Da Vinci Code, but I feel like if he started making one or two movies per year again, he could be right back up there near the top.

9. George Clooney

Most Impressive Box Office: Ocean’s Eleven: $450 million ($85 million budget)

Notable Flop: Leatherheads: $31 million ($58 million budget)

George Clooney seems to be a lot more reliable in determining what is going to be awards-friendly than what is going to make a lot of money, but it is obvious that when he does appear in a movie, there is hype around it. His stardom has gotten to and perhaps surpassed Cary Grant-territory. His persona on and off screen has turned him into one of the most beloved celebrities around, and in all cases other than Leatherheads and The Good German (neither are good movies), he can pull in a $100 million box office in his sleep.

8. Jim Carrey

Most Impressive Box Office: Bruce Almighty: $484 million ($81 million budget)

Notable Flop: The Majestic: $37 million ($72 million budget)

Some of you may have a problem with my inclusion of Jim Carrey on this list, but it is undeniable that he can still pull the audiences in by the truckload. His star may not be as bright as it was 10-15 years ago, but Yes Man still pulled in over $200 million, and that was all him. Nothing about that movie could have been sold without his name attached to it. Mr. Popper’s Penguins is another example ($170+ million). These movies would not be made without Carrey. He is still as big of a star as anyone. I am not holding the horrible marketing of I Love You Phillip Morris against him. The Majestic is his only real flop, which only recovered about half of its budget. That was more of a problem with the fact that the movie is misunderstood than poor. Carrey is going to continue to make his movies and continue to tear up the box office as long as he wants to.

7. Ben Stiller

Most Impressive Box Office: Night at the Museum: $574 million ($110 million budget)

Notable Flop: Envy: $12 million ($40 million budget)

It is always interesting to see who actually the biggest stars in Hollywood are. Ben Stiller has to be on that shortlist. He does not have the movie star looks, voice, or persona. He is like the normal guy who cannot make a movie without people wanting to see it. Everything he does is a hit, and he always is playing more or less the same character. Night at the Museum is his single most impressive hit, mainly because it is the Ben Stiller show the entire time. Plus it got a sequel. His flops were Envy and Duplex, the two lame romantic comedies he tried to make in the middle of last decade that no one really saw and that never really got advertised. Now, however, even something as small as Greenberg gets its audience. He definitely deserves his spot on this list.

6. Shia LaBeouf

Most Impressive Box Office: Transformers: $706 million ($151 million budget)

Notable Flop: Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps: $70 million ($52 million budget)

Why does everyone love Shia LaBeouf? No, really that was a question. I can’t figure it out, but it would be ignorant to not include him in this conversation. Everything the guy touches turns to gold. Holes, Disturbia, Transformers, Eagle Eye. Everything he appears in gets a huge audience. The only one that didn’t was by far his best movie, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps, which I think was just too smart for mass audiences. The fact that Transformers pulled in over $700 million with that first film was probably 25% subject matter, 25% Michael Bay excessive advertising, and the rest was split between LaBeouf, the reviews, and Megan Fox’s midriff. It was he who got the audiences in the seats, because let’s face it, if the movie was animated or starred some other young actor, not everyone would want to see it. LaBeouf is just one of those unique personalities that people can relate to, even when he is as pissed off and annoying as he is in all three of those ridiculously loud and obnoxious movies.

5. Tom Cruise

Most Impressive Box Office: The Firm: $262 million ($42 million budget)

Notable Flop: Lions for Lambs: $14 million ($30 million budget)

That’s right. He will not go away. It doesn’t even matter what the movie is about. Nazis, aliens, assassins… He makes everything a box office smash. It was difficult to find both a most impressive box office and a notable snub. I had to settle with Lions for Lambs, which was definitely not his fault, and I went with The Firm, mainly because it is the one film that would not have been anything without him in the lead role. It was 154 minute Tom Cruise show, and it became a huge $250+ million hit. Even now, he does Knight and Day, Valkyrie, a small part in Tropic Thunder. Each one of them nearly doubled their money. It is pretty smart of him to not make so many movies anymore, since people tend to not like him. But when he finally puts out another movie, people cannot avoid it. He leaves everyone wanting more.

4. Brad Pitt

Most Impressive Box Office: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button: $329 million ($150 million budget)

Notable Flop: The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford: $3 million ($30 million budget)

So, the man of the hour finally comes up. The decisions that this guy makes astound me. He works with every major director, turning each one of their films into one of the most talked about movies of the year. He had a very public Hollywood breakup with America’s sweetheart, and that does not touch his popularity like it would any other actor. In fact, people love him so much that they just blame it on the girl instead. It couldn’t have been his fault. Benjamin Button is his most impressive box office because that subject matter is so strange that I am not sure if anyone else could have made it that big. Jesse James was one of the worst advertised movies I have ever witnessed, so that had one horrible and short run at the box office after about 2 years of previews. But, he can still churn out movie after movie and make each one interesting. He is the definition of bankable. It is almost like directors cast him to ensure that their movie will be seen. Not a bad idea, actually…

3. Johnny Depp

Most Impressive Box Office: Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl: $652 million ($140 million budget)

Notable Flop: The Tourist: $67 million ($100 million budget)

One of the obvious choices on this list was the inclusion of Johnny Depp. Every time anyone sees him in a preview, it is hard to not want to see what he is up to. He has done everything from a Willy Wonka remake, a bloody musical about a demon barber, to an animated movie about a lizard. He has done it all, and everything he touches is monumentally popular. That is except The Tourist, which oddly got no audience despite Depp and arguably the second most marketable actress Angelina Jolie. Depp will continue to make his own strange movies and turn them all into worldwide hits. He is unstoppable.

2. Adam Sandler

Most Impressive Box Office: Big Daddy: $163 million ($34 million budget)

Notable Flop: Little Nicky: $39 million ($80 million budget)

Before you jump on me, just think about this. It is true. Adam Sandler has a massive army of fans who will go see whatever movie he makes no matter how horrible it is. He has made 6 movies in the last 4 years that have all been just Sandler and his buddies acting like little kids. And they all made money. His only movies that do not break even are his good movies (Funny People, Punch-Drunk Love, and Spanglish). But those are not Sandler movies. Those are signs that he actually wants to be an actor, not just a funny movie star spewing out fart jokes in dumb movies twice a year. But hey, he can keep making more and more of these movies and people will see them. As horrifying as Jack and Jill looks, I can assure you that it will get a critical thrashing and open to $30 million or more in the opening weekend. That’s just the way it works.

1. Will Smith

Most Impressive Box Office: The Pursuit of Happyness: $304 million ($55 million budget)

Notable Flop: Ali: $87 million ($107 million budget)

Yeah, no surprise here. It is crazy to think about how far Will Smith has come since being on Fresh Prince. He had that incredible $200+ million streak that ended with Seven Pounds, which somehow still made a bunch of money. Seriously, Will Smith can do whatever he wants. He is the coolest guy out there, and he is probably the most likable and down to earth celebrity on this list. His divorce may take a bit of his charm away, but it cannot touch his box office success. In the words of Tom Luginbill (and almost any other ESPN football analyst), “what he has been able to accomplish is remarkable”. The Pursuit of Happyness is a movie that exists solely because Smith wanted to make it. Place any actor in that role, and it is just an indie flick that no one sees. Insert Will Smith, and we have a $300 million monster hit and an Oscar nomination. It is astonishing. Ali is his only movie to not break even, but that is one of his acting roles, not his entertainment pictures. And it was before his streak started. Try to argue with Will Smith being the top of this list. I dare you.

So, what do you make of this? Did I miss anyone? What is your top 5? Let me know.

Leo’s Quest for an Oscar

For the past 10 years or so, 3-time Oscar nominee Leonardo DiCaprio has been trying to win an Oscar. That is indisputable. Look at the movies he has attached himself to. He has been the lead in four true stories during the span. He has taken on several actors’ acting roles. The one thing that I believe is holding him back from finally winning his Oscar that he deserves is his perception. There are still a large portion of filmgoers that believe that he cannot act, going all the way back to his love or hate work in Titanic. He is also very opinionated about the environment and other social issues. Some people just do not like him, but it is almost impossible to say that he has not deserved to win an Oscar based solely on performance. It is also ignorant to think that quality of acting is the only variable in Academy voting. When will Leo finally win his Oscar? Will it be this year? I will try to figure that out.

Starting back in 1993, DiCaprio had his showiest role of his career, playing the mentally-challenged kid in What’s Eating Gilbert Grape. Four years later, he was cast as the lead in Titanic, which turned everyone off to DiCaprio for some reason, thinking that he was too soft and could not hold a dramatic role in the biggest movie ever. Who else that age could have done that, by the way? I am part of the minority that thinks that he was actually quite good in that movie. It was totally a role that should have gotten Oscar love, but apparently being the lead in the most beloved movie of the year and being a past nominee wasn’t enough.

After that, flops came his way until he got the chance to work with Scorsese and Spielberg in the same year. Gangs of New York and Catch Me If You Can marked the beginning of modern day Leo. He was tremendous and critically-acclaimed in the latter and mired in mediocre reviews in the former. But it was obvious that he was maturing as an actor. Those critical of him still had the complaint that he cannot hold a movie on his own.

Then came The Aviator, his best performance to date and the one that should have won the Oscar. Why did the Academy not eat it up? Well, who knows? They went with the gimmicky Jaime Foxx role in Ray. But, he had to have won everyone over by this point, right? Not exactly. It was not until 2006, when The Departed came out that everyone sort of warmed up to him, or most people did. It was like when Paul Rudd watches Bourne in The 40 Year Old Virgin and goes, “I always thought that he was sort of a Streisand, but I think he’s rockin the shit in this one…” It was like Leo’s coming out party. Everyone loved him in that tough, gritty role that should have won him another Oscar. But, unfortunately, he was nominated for his more Academy-friendly role in the surprise hit Blood Diamond.

Following that, he had a Ridley Scott role in Body of Lies, an actor’s wet dream in Revolutionary Road, a couple showy roles in Shutter Island and Inception. You would have thought that Winslet and DiCaprio, both looking for Oscars, could have won together in 2008. That would have been a great story, but no. They give Leo the finger by nominating Winslet for another role, and shafting Leo’s movie completely.

Now, this year, it appears to be Leo’s year. But, I do not think so. He has the great physical transformation and makeup work, he plays a character whose role spans a long time, he probably dies in the movie, and it is Clint Eastwood. But, the backlash has already started it seems. I almost want Leo to not win. He is so talented that I want him to win for a really great role, not one begging to win. I think he will obviously be nominated this year, but a win will have to wait.

Next year, Leo will be busy. He has three movies that could get him that Oscar. He plays a slave runner in Tarantino’s Django Unchained. This would be awesome to see him win the Oscar for. You know his character is going to be vicious and brutal, and for him to get recognized for something like this, his reputation may change forever. He also has a Todd Field movie and a reunion with Baz Luhrmann playing the title role in The Great Gatsby. Any of those he could totally shine in. But, I have the feeling that his OScar will have to wait for him to get one more important role in a Scorsese picture. They are the perfect team, and whenever that Teddy Roosevelt film finally gets made, it could be nearing the end of Scorsese’s career, and Leo’s Oscar snubbing could be nearing a mythical status. How awesome would it be if Leo gets his due and Marty gets a parting gift at the same time? That would be so cool to see.

So, we will see what critics and audiences think of Leo in J. Edgar. It very well could sweep everything, but the trailer was a little weak, and I already know exactly what to expect from DiCaprio. If he wins the Oscar this year, good for him. I will be happy that he is no longer called Oscar-less. But to really become the kind of actor that he can be and be viewed as one of the best actors of his generation (which he is), he needs to stop with the shameless Oscar-hunting and do something crazy. A villain role (the Tarantino film might be that), some supporting work, some independent dramas, or an unlikable character. Those are the kinds that win Oscars and the kinds that make critics, Academy voters, and mass audiences most connect with them. He has made some pretty great decisions recently, working with some of the best living directors and being part of some really big hits, but he needs to take a couple risks.

So, that turned out to be more of a rant than an informative article, which I did not intend to happen. But, do you agree? What kinds of roles do you want to see DiCaprio take on in the coming years? Will he win the Oscar this year? Next year? Let me know in the comments.

Movie Milestones: 10 Years of A Beautiful Mind

Looking back 10 years ago, 2001 was a year that will be remembered in our nation's history for the 9/11 attacks. However, the historical tragedy often overshadows the incredible year in film that 2001 turned out to be. There were so many great films that are celebrating their 10 year anniversary this year, and some of them may get commemorated on this site later, however I want to start out with the film that was my favorite from that year: A Beautiful Mind.

Ron Howard directed Best Picture winner that explored the real life of John Nash, one of the great minds of our time that was haunted by his battle with schizophrenia. Russell Crowe portrays Nash in what should have been an Oscar-winning role if he hadn't have won one the year before for the inferior Gladiator. Jennifer Connelly won the Oscar for playing Nash's wife that stands by his side through thick and thin. Paul Bettany and Ed Harris portray two of Nash's hallucinations; Bettany as his college roommate and best friend, Harris as a government official hiring Nash to investigate conspiracy theories. It was these investigations that finally forced Nash to question what was real. You get to follow Nash from college to old age as he excels, loses his grip on reality, struggles with finding it again, and eventually wins a Nobel Prize after finding peace and balance. It has become a standard in real life biopics.

Best Scene: There are few scenes in film that bring tears to my eyes, no matter how many times I have seen them. The closing scene of A Beautiful Mind is one of them. You go through this whole incredible ordeal with John Nash as he puts it "through the physical, the metaphysical, the delusional, and back." Then at the end you see Nash finally get the recognition for his original idea that he had always sought by winning the Nobel Prize. He gets up to give his acceptance speech, and points to his wife to say the only reason he was there was because of her. Through everything Nash experienced, his wife remained the rock that kept him stable. He finishes his speech by wiping his face with the handkerchief she gave him on their first date. I really don't know why, but it brings a tear to my eye every time.

Best Line: Although this is a complex human drama, there are definitely some lighter moments. Watching Nash try and pick up a girl at a bar by asking to skip the boring conversation and go straight to the "exchanging of fluids" would be one of those. Or when Bettany's Charles explains why dying of thirst in a desert would feel like a hangover. Or when Nash tells a friend he sat on one of his imaginary friends to which Nash follows up "What's the point of being crazy if you can't have a little fun?" However, my favorite quote is one of the only stand-alone one-liners in the whole movie. In the opening scene, as the new Princeton students are meeting each other, John Nash looks intently at one of his fellow students and simply states, "There must be a mathematical equation for how bad your tie is." I must say this line comes to mind every time a see a tie worthy of a mathematical equation.

Most Iconic Moment: Before Nash went crazy thinking he was doing top secret CIA code breaking, he actually did some top secret CIA code breaking which certainly fed his hallucination. The first scene we get to see Nash in this capacity he walks into a room with code printed all over the walls that he is asked to decode. As he stares at the code, you get a glimpse into the beautiful mind of John Nash as the code illuminates and surrounds him as it all gets put together in his mind. It is one of the only special effects in the movie, and it is very tastefully done. It is also the shot you see most often to represent this movie. An honorable mention would be Nash outlining shapes in the stars with his future wife by his side.

The Time Tester: With A Beautiful Mind just being 10 years old, there has not been too much time that has passed to see if it has stood the test of time. However, the time tester for me in this film is the high level of intelligence it brings to a common story. There are many stories out there that follow this model of "flawed protagonist that must overcome adversity to better himself or herself." However, few films are able to portray this story arc with the intelligence and thought provoking detail that A Beautiful Mind brings. In many ways, to fully understand the film and all its nuances, you have to be more than just a casual moviegoer. It is a thinking man's movie with a feel good plot line. Few films have been able to combine the two quite like A Beautiful Mind.

The Lasting Impact: I believe this film has had great lasting impact on film over the last 10 years. First, from what I have seen (and there are a few I have not seen) this is still the greatest performance of Russell Crowe's career to date. It was his third Oscar nomination in a row, and if Gladiator made him a household name, A Beautiful Mind solidified him as a go-to dramatic actor over the last decade. It also helped put Ron Howard in a similar career position. Although Howard had been around for awhile, this is the film that had earned him his Oscar. This film, along with Apollo 13, also made Ron Howard the go-to director for 20th Century historical dramas. Add to that list 2008's Frost/Nixon and it is easy to see that a trend of excellence has started for Howard in that genre. It also launched the careers of Jennifer Connelly and Paul Bettany into superstar status, as well as launched their romance that culminated in a 2003 wedding. The fact that they are still married might be the most lasting impact of them all.

Looking back on 2001 a decade later, I see one of the greatest years of film in my lifetime with this being one of the crown jewels of the year and the decade. It certainly is one of my favorites. I love a well-made feel good movie that I can relate to. I also love a film that makes me think. This film fulfills all these and will be one I revisit for a long time to come.

Casting my own movie: Barry

In addition to my power rankings as a way of looking forward to Moneyball, I also decided to cast my own baseball movie that will inevitably be told at some point, which is the story of the steroid era. So, why not focus the movie on the poster boy of the scandal, Barry Bonds? If that movie were to be made today (I hope it would wait for all the dust to completely settle like 61*) here is what I would want it to look like:

Title: Barry

There are definitely more creative and interesting titles out there, but something about just calling it Barry just makes it sound very serious, which is what I want the movie to be. I want it to take risks and be as respectful, dramatic, and heartbreaking as possible. Calling it Game of Shadows, the name of a book about the steroid era, would be good, but since the new Sherlock movie has that title, I cannot warrant calling it that. Barry it is.

Directed by: Ben Affleck

There are a lot of possibilities for the director, but Ben Affleck has suddenly become one of the most respected filmmakers in the industry after just two films. Also, he is a famed baseball fanatic. He is all about Boston, which is another reason why he should be involved. He will not give a glowing portrait of Bonds, and he will not be overly critical. He will be unbiased and want to show the story how it really was. Realism would be the key in this movie.

Written by: Tom Verducci and Ron Shelton

This is a completely random pair of writers. Tom Verducci has never written a screenplay, but due to his Sports Illustrated career, he probably knows more about Bonds and the steroid era than any other writer. His most famous and best articles were all based on this shamed time in the game's pastime. Ron Shelton is probably most qualified because he may be the best and most consistent sports film writer/director out there. This movie would have the historical accuracy and true dramatic touch it would need to be a great film.

CAST

Barry Bonds: Vin Diesel

This was the most difficult spot to cast. I agonized over this for quite some time, and Diesel just has to be the best option. His skin is too light, but his body size is almost identical, and as seen in Strays and other films, it has been proven that he can carry a film by himself in a drama. If the movie was more about the early part of Bonds's career, it would have to be Mehcad Brooks as the lead. But for the group of years in question, Diesel has to be the choice.

Dusty Baker: Laurence Fishburne

Finding a Dusty Baker is not all that difficult. There are several that would fit. Fishburne just seemed like the right age and right demeanor to capture Baker at his essence.

Bruce Bochy: Gabriel Byrne

I would love to see Gabriel Byrne in this kind of role. Bochy is such an odd manager, and it is a crucial part of the Bonds saga. Byrne could absolutely own it.

Greg Anderson: Ryan Phillippe

This was another difficult decision. For some reason Phillippe could not get out of my head. He plays a great victim, but Anderson was as much to blame as anyone in the case. He can really let out a great rage-filled performance when required. I am thinking of Phillippe in Crash or Breach.

Jeff Kent: Edward Norton

The rivalry and feud between Bonds and Kent was a major part of the late portion of their careers. Kent seemed like the one guy who was willing to call Bonds out. This part might be difficult, so I chose perhaps the most talented actor of his generation: Edward Norton. I would love to see some clubhouse verbal battles between Diesel and Norton.

Willie Mays: James Earl Jones

Old Willie Mays is a vital part of the Bonds demise. He was one of the only reasons that people were holding out hope that Bonds was still clean. Who better than the baseball film legend himself, James Earl Jones?

Bud Selig: Scott Glenn

This one was obvious. Everyone hates Bud Selig, and Scott Glenn plays a "great criminal in the background" type of role. Plus he looks exactly like him, right?

So, what do you think of this idea? Any better casting decisions? What other movie ideas would you like to see an article on? Let me know!

Power Rankings: Baseball Movies

In honor of the highly-anticipated upcoming baseball movie Moneyball, I decided to do a rundown of the best baseball movies of all time. Baseball movies, other than perhaps boxing movies, are the most likely sports films to garner acclaim and awards. Why is this? Maybe it is just because the sport has been around forever. The stars are bigger and brighter than the other sports. The pastime is as storied and interesting as history itself. Baseball movies are the most common sports film, and they normally are the best films overall. Here are what I think are the all time greatest.

Note: I have not seen acclaimed films The Pride of the Yankees, For the Love of the Game, Ken Burns Baseball, or The Bronx is Burning. Oh, and The Natural is not included because it is not a good movie. Just so you know…

Others receiving votes: The Bad News Bears (both versions)

10. Field of Dreams (1989)

Field of Dreams is definitely one of the mass audience favorites in the category. The Best Picture-nominated fantasy film featuring Shoeless Joe Jackson and other classic players is definitely a movie-lovers baseball movie. It is not one of my elite picks, but it is hard not to love this movie and get caught up in the emotion of it all. Great performances all around, and just a beautiful story that is well told.

9. Major League (1989)

Major League is basically the Slap Shot of baseball movies. It is a ridiculous underdog tale that sort of made a star out of Charlie Sheen in his classic “Wild Thing” Ricky Vaughn role. This is another film that you do not really need to like baseball to like the movie, mainly because the movie doesn’t know much about baseball itself. It is more of a mainstream comedy (a successful one) than a true baseball comedy. It is terrific entertainment nonetheless.

8. The Sandlot (1993)

If there is a baseball movie that can appeal to any age group of any generation, it is The Sandlot. It is the story of a neighborhood baseball team who get themselves in a pickle when the new kid unwittingly blasts a ball into the backyard of a notorious loner who they are all scared of. Oh, and the ball was signed by Babe Ruth and belonged to his stepdad. It is such a fun movie that is hilarious when watched as a child and nostalgic when watched as an adult. I love it.

7. A League of Their Own (1992)

A League of Their Own might very well be the best baseball-lovers baseball movie other than Bull Durham. It is the story of the All American Women’s Baseball League during World War II, and it is both funny and sometimes quite dramatic. It has the most memorable and most quotable baseball quote of all time (“There’s no crying in baseball!”), and it is just a really realistic and charming take on a story that is very seldom told. I love the movie, but I know Terry will claim that this is far too low on the list.

6. Fear Strikes Out (1957)

The wrenching story of Jimmy Piersall, a former Red Sox star with mental illness is told with unflinching honesty in the brilliant film Fear Strikes Out. This movie may be centered on the baseball player, but this movie could have been told about anybody and been just as effective. Anthony Perkins gives one of his best performances in this, really embodying Piersall and forcing the audience to get emotionally-involved in the story. It really is not about baseball or success, but more about fathers and sons, the drive to make your father proud, and the toll it takes on both parties.

5. Sugar (2009)

I was surprised at how much I ended up loving Sugar. It is the best dose of reality of any sports movie that is not a true story. It is centered on a Dominican baseball player who is discovered and recruited to play in the Minor Leagues. It is an extremely accurate portrayal of what it is like to be in the minors and traveling by bus across the country in hopes that someday the player will get the call to play on the big club. This movie is a really dramatic and beautiful story that does not wind up where the audience expects it to. It does not follow any of the rules of the typical baseball movie, and that originality is what sets it apart. It is a brilliant little film.

4. 61* (2001)

I was always skeptical of watching 61*, but I could not have been more satisfied after I finally did. It is the superb story of Roger Maris and Mickey Mantle and their chase of Babe Ruth’s record 60 home runs in a single season. The media hated the soft-spoken and shy Maris, who was taking the spotlight away from the league’s most popular superstar Mantle. Maris was the bad guy, and Mantle was the one that everyone was rooting for. Their rivalry and friendship is the focus of the movie, but the pressure to succeed and the toll of unwarranted criticism is vital to the story as well.

3. Bull Durham (1988)

I always loved what Roger Ebert said about Bull Durham, which was that the reason why it works so well is that it knows so much about baseball and so little about love. That is the best way to describe this movie, the best baseball comedy of all time. It is a hilarious baseball movie, a good-hearted romantic comedy, and just an overall smart and witty film. The relationships portrayed are believable, the performances are top notch, and the baseball conversations are as finely-tuned as any sports conversations in movies. I love every bit of this movie, and it is probably the film I revisit most often when it is on television.

2. Bang the Drum Slowly (1973)

Stated as being the baseball version of Brian’s Song, Bang the Drum Slowly is the most gut-wrenching baseball movie ever made. This movie perhaps more than any other on this list is more about relationships and drama than about baseball. It centers on a star pitcher and lonely catcher dealing with the latter’s terminal illness throughout the season. Surprisingly, the movie is not overly melodramatic or weepy. It is more of an unsettling drama that earns the tears of its audience. The movie explores baseball from all angles, and it is rather poetic in structure. It is just a brilliant film.

1. Eight Men Out (1988)

The best baseball movie I have ever come across is Eight Men Out. This movie tells perhaps the most important story in the in the history of the sport: the Black Sox Scandal. It does not let anyone off the hook. For someone who is unfamiliar with the story, this film is as eye-opening as you could imagine. As a big baseball fan, it was a brilliant retelling of the scandalous story. It plays like a conspiracy drama, but it has the backdrop of the golden days of baseball, making it even more intriguing. It is the most perfect baseball movie there is, and ranks with the top 10 or so sports films ever made.

So, with Moneyball coming out this weekend and taking into account initial critical reviews, it is clear that it will probably warrant placement somewhere on this list. It tells such an unlikely story, but one that has crossed over to other sports and other areas of business. I cannot wait to see it.

So, what do you think? What baseball movies did I miss? What does your list look like? Let me know.

Recognizing Directors’ Styles

Honestly, I do not know where this came from, but it has been swirling in my mind for about a week. I do not even know if it is worth posting, but here it goes. Upon watching Warrior last weekend, I notice about halfway through that the movie is basically a parallel with Pride and Glory, UFC-style. The further the movie went along, the more I realized that the movies are so similar. The emotional brother trying to connect with the hotshot brother, the somewhat estranged father, the final fight scene between the brothers beating years and years of frustration out of each other. The movies are so alike. Little did I know that the two movies had the same director at the helm.

Gavin O’Connor, a director who I am not exactly unfamiliar with, is a quite interesting director. In 1999, he directed Janet McTeer to an Oscar nomination. He directed Miracle, the movie I most identify him with. The connections between Warrior and Miracle are obvious, but Warrior and Pride and Glory are two completely opposite genres. How I made that connection, I have no idea, but upon a bit of brainstorming, it is not the first time that I have done such a thing.

The main example that comes to mind in this vein is the first time I saw It’s Complicated. A few scenes in, I made the connection to Something’s Gotta Give. Terry thought I was just being facetious, knowing that it was the same filmmaker, but I had no idea. Nancy Meyers is the director. She has done mostly all romantic comedies, and now that I look at her filmography, it makes sense that she directed What Women Want as well. She is a talented director of those types of films. Her characters aren’t exactly what make them similar; it is more the realistic and unplugged nature of the script. She lets her actors freely roam around in their characters. Something’s Gotta Give and It’s Complicated are similar in that the romance is between older characters, but they are also similar in the flair of the dialogue and how genuine the relationships are. The visual style is almost non-existent in these films, but for some reason I was still able to make the connection between them.

Finally, this week I watched Gigli (don’t judge me, but honestly, it isn't that bad). There was a certain scene in the movie where Gigli’s boss Louis is chewing him out on the phone, and that distinctly reminded me of a scene in Midnight Run where Joe Pantoliano is screaming at De Niro. The way the character was yelling and banging his phone on the phone booth, the way the camera was facing the character. The scenes were almost mirrors of each other. The further I went into the movie, the more I recognized similarities in the narrative. The car ride scenes with Lopez, Affleck, and Bartha reminded me of De Niro and Grodin riding cross-country. The character traits of Affleck and De Niro are more than a little alike. The kidnapping plot is obviously a connection. Martin Brest is the director. I actually know his work. Scent of a Woman and Beverly Hills Cop are his most notable films. I guess I didn’t remember him directing Midnight Run, and I had no clue that he directed Gigli until the end credits.

Directors, no matter the budget, plot, or actors all have their unique style. That is a given, though. What makes these three cases stand out to me is that these are not directors with visual trademarks. Terry always says that you can pick an Eastwood movie out of a hat, which is true. His movies are always so much bluer than other movies. Fincher movies all are incredibly dark and moody. Scorsese’s films are marked with tracking shots. Gus Van Sant has odd, creative camera angles. Martin Brest’s films look quite plain. Gavin O’Connor’s films may be a bit dark, but nothing to really stand out. Nancy Meyer’s films look extremely ordinary. What these films have in common is how the directors tell the stories. Of course there are similar camera angles, a few characters that are reminiscent of ones in their other films, but it is the story arches and mood of the films that is where the directors leave their mark.

So, what does this all mean? I really do not know. Maybe it just means that I watch a lot of movies. Or I just got lucky in these instances. I wrote this more out of curiosity than out of insight. Has this ever happened to you? What other directors have you noticed have a unique style other than strictly visual? This could be an interesting conversation if we get it going.