2016 Oscar Predictions: September

At last, here are my updated Oscar predictions! A lot has happened since my first predictions in February. Some movies have failed, some have surprised, and some have been pushed to 2016 and out of contention. A few trailers have burst onto the scene and immediately gotten the attention of the major festivals and audiences alike. It will be an interesting Oscar season. I love this time of year!

Notable release date casualties: Silence, Snowden, Knight of Cups, Tulip Fever, Demolition, Midnight Special, Untitled Howard Hughes Project, That’s What I’m Talking About Everybody Wants Some, Triple Nine, Bleed for This

I will also leave out films like Miles Ahead, Icon The Program, and The Light Between Oceans, which look as if they will probably have the same fate as the abovementioned films.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

1. Steve Jobs – Aaron Sorkin – Sorkin might be the best screenwriter in the world, and his script appears to be furious and relevant. When he decides to write a movie, he gets nominated.

2. Beasts of No Nation – Cary Fukunaga – The movie is one of the frontrunners in several categories, but winning screenplay over some flashier writing might be a bit difficult for the Netflix original movie.

3. Carol – Phyllis Nagy – Todd Haynes didn’t write, so it might be a tougher sell than Far from Heaven, but all early indications are that this is sumptuous and brilliant.

4.  Trumbo – John McNamara – Whenever a film takes aim at Hollywood, it is always a good thing for Oscar contention. Blacklisting has rarely been told well in film, so who better than Jay Roach to bring this lightning screenplay to life?

5. The Danish Girl – Lucina Coxon – The Tom Hooper film is getting raves from everywhere, and with that subject matter, it appears to be the perfect time for it to come out. Coxon is an unproven writer, but that shouldn’t matter for the Oscar juggernaut.

Others in contention

6.  Truth – James Vanderbilt – He only really has one decent screenplay in Zodiac, but this film about Dan Rather appears to have the type of sharp writing to warrant Oscar attention.

7. The Revenant – Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Mark L. Smith – The movie is going to be a big hit, but unless it is unanimous, a nomination in this category will prove difficult.

8. Brooklyn – Nick Hornby – The raves for this movie are coming in. Hornby is always popular, so watch out for this one if it gets enough of an American theatrical run.

9. Our Brand is Crisis – Peter Straughan – The previous nominee has a great political topic to chew on and a cast to take it all the way to the Oscars.

10.  The Secret in Their Eyes – Billy Ray – He is one of the more popular writers out there, and adapting the smash hit foreign Oscar winner seems like a perfect fit.

11. Black Mass – Jez Butterworth, Mark Mallouk – The movie is getting a lot of good word, but other than Depp, this might be the film’s peak. Scott Cooper has yet to validate the talent he showed with Crazy Heart.

12. Concussion – Peter Landesman – Everyone keeps wanting Landesman to become the next big thing, but it isn’t working. The same goes for John Wells. If this movie is good enough, then maybe a screenplay nomination will come his way and finally validate his hype.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

1. Spotlight - Thomas McCarthy, Josh Singer – McCarthy is one of the most popular filmmakers around, and this is his best shot yet at winning big at the Oscars. His subject matter is controversial and timely, which always helps.

2. Joy – David O. Russell, Annie Mumolo – Maybe Russell will never win, but he will continue stacking up nominations like Billy Wilder. Working with the Oscar-nominated writer of Bridesmaids is intriguing to say the least.

3. The Hateful Eight – Quentin Tarantino – I am pretty confident that he will be nominated, but unless he can once again outdo himself, then he might just be an also-ran.

4. Son of Saul – Laszlo Nemes, Clara Royer – The Holocaust film has garnered wide attention and a scheduled legitimate US release date. This is the foreign film that will sweep everyone off their feet.

5. Inside Out – Pete Docter, Bob Petersen – Pixar has returned to form, and if this movie is not nominated in this category, then I don’t know what is going on. It is as well-written of a film as we have seen in years. It needs a strong video release/streaming campaign.

Others in contention

6. Bridge of Spies – Joel Coen, Ethan Coen, Matt Charman – The film had a popular trailer, but something about it seemed a bit phony to me. The Coens being on the job is cool, but they direct their best scripts.

7. Sicario – Taylor Sheridan – This thriller is getting a lot of run commercially, which is promising. The cast is awesome. These types of movies come out a lot, and since he is a first time writer, I am leaving it just on the outside.

8. The Good Dinosaur – Enrico Casarosa, Bob Petersen – We are not entirely sure about the quality of the film yet, but judging by the trailer, it might even eclipse Inside Out.

9. Youth – Paolo Sorrentino – The Academy loved The Great Beauty, so Sorrentino’s American film needs to be considered as a major contender. It looks quirky, but that works in this category.

10. Burnt – Steven Knight, Michael Kalesniko – Knight is a past nominee, and this film starring Bradley Cooper sounds like the type of redemption story that can easily win over the conservative Oscar voters.

11. Crimson Peak – Guillermo del Toro, Matthew Robinson – Del Toro can complete the Mexican director trifecta if his film wins big, but it is a horror-type film, so that is unlikely. The Pan’s Labyrinth filmmaker still deserves our due attention.

12. Trainwreck – Amy Schumer – The screenplay is brilliant, hip, and current. The Academy loves strong female characters. It is possible, but it needs to regain some steam in the coming months.

13.  Suffragette – Abi Morgan – Morgan is a talented writer, and making a film about the feminist movement is definitely a way to get attention from award circuits.

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Rooney Mara – Carol – She won at Cannes, which firmly puts her in competition at the American awards. She does such good work every year. This might be her time.

2. Ellen Page – Freeheld – Is it time for a validation nomination for Page? She is clearly playing a role that is personal, so she might be at her best.

3. Helena Bonham Carter – Suffragette – She appears to be a standout in the film. I think it will be an actor showcase, so expect a couple of the women to get in.

4. Jennifer Jason Leigh – The Hateful Eight – She has embarrassingly never been nominated by the Academy. Playing in a Tarantino film should finally give her that vehicle to put her over the top.

5. Jane Fonda – Youth – She hasn’t been nominated since 1986. Playing aside such esteemed veterans as Michael Caine and Harvey Keitel should definitely give her the best role she has had in decades.

Others in contention

6. Kate Winslet – Steve Jobs – It is a bit strange to think that the annual nominee hasn’t been invited back in 7 years, but then again she taking other types of roles in that time. It would not surprise me at all if she steals this movie.

7. Julie Walters – Brooklyn – She will get a lot of British backing heading up to the announcement of the nominations, but I am almost in a “wait and see” with this movie.

8. Rachel McAdams – Spotlight – She has been doing the best work of her career recently, and she kills it in these types of roles. Is this finally her ticket?

9. Helen Mirren – Trumbo – She has a juicy role as a gossip columnist in the true story. She is always an Academy favorite.

10. Diane Lane – Trumbo – She gets her best role in ages as Dalton Trumbo’s wife. Bryan Cranston will bring out the best in the underrated actress.

11. Diane Ladd – Joy – She hasn’t been invited back in 24 years, but then again, she hasn’t really done a whole lot of anything in that time. This would be a cool comeback story, and we all know what the Academy thinks of David O. Russell’s actors.

12. Meryl Streep – Suffragette – She is nominated whenever she has a relevant film, and depending on the size of her role, this might be her best shot this year.

13. Melanie Laurent – By the Sea – Angelina Jolie’s romantic drama gathered a great cast, and this role might be one of my most anticipated in 2015. Laurent can do wonders with the right direction.

14. Naomi Watts – About Ray – She is playing the mother of a girl who wants to become a boy, so we know the emotional scenes we will get to see from Watts.

15. Jessica Chastain – Crimson Peak – Chastain has developed a reputation of being one of the most reliable actresses out there, and being in a Guillermo del Toro film has my attention at least.

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Idris Elba – Beasts of No Nation – Elba has yet to break through in film, but this role seems to be right in his wheelhouse. It is also one of the frontrunners, so that always helps.

2. Harvey Keitel – Youth – He has only been nominated once for Bugsy, so he would be welcomed back. He so rarely gets critical roles like this.

3. Michael Keaton – Spotlight – He officially is back. Playing in this movie should easily get him a second consecutive nomination and another shot at taking home gold.

4. Michael Stuhlbarg – Trumbo – He is not being hyped by most, but being cast as Edward G. Robinson is as interesting and perfect as any 2015 casting.

5. Samuel L. Jackson – The Hateful Eight – I would love if he could finally get back to the Oscars. QT always writes Jackson’s best roles, so we will see how this pans out.

Others in contention

6. Mark Rylance – Bridge of Spies – He is playing the antagonist Soviet spy in Spielberg’s drama, which seems as juicy of a role as any. Could he be 2015’s Christoph Waltz?

7. Tom Hardy – The Revenant – Hardy has been knocking on Oscar’s door for a few years now, so being in Academy-favorite Inarritu’s film puts him squarely in the race.

8. Seth Rogen – Steve Jobs – His part in the trailer was not overly impressive, but he must have blown everyone away to get cast in this crucial role. I am hopeful that he can finally shed his undeserved image of being one-dimensional and secure a nomination.

9. Bradley Cooper – Joy – Cooper has been nominated three years in a row, and this could easily make it four, all but one being for Russell.

10. Benicio Del Toro – Sicario – Del Toro is one of the best actors in the world, and this kind of role is what he usually owns, but the film is never up to his level. Sicario should be different.

11. Robert De Niro – Joy – David O. Russell brought De Niro back, and it probably won’t be all that difficult to keep him here.

12. Michael Shannon – 99 Homes – I tried to avoid this movie after overhyping it last year before it got delayed, but this role is just so intriguing. I can’t wait until this actually comes out.

13. Liev Schreiber – Pawn Sacrifice – After doing a crash course on Bobby Fischer, I cannot think of a more easy casting decision than Schreiber as his Russian rival.

14. Jason Segel – The End of the Tour – Segel certainly has talent. Playing George Foster Wallace is as strange and brilliant of a casting choice as possible. I hope for the best.

15. Jason Mitchell – Straight Outta Compton – He received “best in show” reviews as Eazy-E in the monster box office hit. If the film is remembered in December, watch out for this surprise nomination.

16. Jeff Daniels – Steve Jobs – Daniels is sensational with Sorkin’s words in The Newsroom, so I expect his part to stand out in Boyle’s film.

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Alicia Vikander – The Danish Girl – She has had one unbelievable year. Her performance appears to be beautiful in Tom Hooper’s drama. The Academy loves the female companion roles to the dominant male characters.

2. Cate Blanchett – Carol – She easily could take her third Oscar with this film. She will wind up with more Oscars than Katherine Hepburn. Todd Haynes and Cate Blanchett were made for each other.

3. Jennifer Lawrence – Joy – She will become the next in line of the perennial nominees, and this is one of those roles that if she kills it, she will coast to an Oscar.

4. Carey Mulligan – Suffragette – She has unfortunately only been nominated once, so with this feminist film and her acclaimed work in Far from the Madding Crowd, she should be able to get invited back.

5. Meryl Streep – Ricki and the Flash – I had to include her somewhere. She needs to get the Golden Globe nomination first, then this will come.

Others in contention

6. Saoirse Ronan – Brooklyn – She has been close to getting her second career nomination for a while, and while this film looks so promising for her, I am not quite ready to put her up with that group just yet.

7. Brie Larson – Room – Her performance has gotten raves. She has been doing some tremendous work recently, and this type of motherly emotional role should play well with voters.

8. Lily Tomlin – Grandma – These types of road comedies sometimes really work well for the actors. She hasn’t been nominated since 1975.

9. Cate Blanchett – Truth – This role has almost no chance at beating out her role in Carol, but it is worth mentioning if they somehow convince the Academy that she is supporting in the Haynes film. She plays opposite Robert Redford, which will be a really interesting battle.

10. Sandra Bullock – Our Brand is Crisis – She seemed to really be commanding in the trailer. When she gets a real role, the voters usually flock to her support.

11. Emily Blunt – Sicario – She should be a nominee already. These types of badass roles are tough to pull off, and she does it in her sleep. This might be a quality enough movie to finally get her attention for doing it.

12. Marion Cotillard – Macbeth – The trailer looked unbelievable. Is there a better choice for Lady Macbeth than Cotillard? I think not. If the movie is distributed enough, it will be hard to not vote for her.

13. Julianne Moore – Freeheld – She just won, but she is still one of the most liked actresses out there. She is going to have a host of emotional scenes with Page, so maybe they both get in?

14. Angelina Jolie – By the Sea – She isn’t the most popular actress, but this is the first time she is directing herself. She has certainly proved to be talented behind the camera and great with her actors. Can she direct herself to a nomination? It is rare, but it could happen.

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Eddie Redmayne – The Danish Girl – Winning two Oscars in a row is really rare, but how can you bet against him? Tom Hooper, transgender, physical transformation, British…check, check, check, check.

2. Michael Fassbender – Steve Jobs – Fassbender needs to win one here pretty soon. Maybe his role as Steve Jobs will help him bring it home. He certainly appears to be game by the trailers and early reviews.

3. Bryan Cranston – Trumbo – He has been doing some nice film work since he got done with Breaking Bad. The film is one of the ones to beat in the main categories, and from the trailer, he appears to have stepped right out of the 1940s.

4. Leonardo DiCaprio – The Revenant – He looks to really be going for it in Inarritu’s film. He will win one eventually, I hope.

5. Bradley Cooper – Burnt – He has the redemption role, but first he gets to be a jerk and a drug addict. Sounds like another Cooper nomination to me.

Others in contention

6. Abraham Attah – Beasts of No Nation – Children are not nominated in this category very often, but being in the frontrunning film puts him in the race.

7. Robert Redford – Truth – He is playing Dan Rather, which sounds like a money role for the underrated actor who hasn’t been nominated in 42 years.

8. Michael Caine – Youth – Caine is always in contention when he gets a real role. If he gets nominated here, then that will be six decades in a row with a nom. That has never been done.

9. Tom Hanks – Bridge of Spies – Hanks has somewhat lost his luster after being snubbed for Captain Phillips. He seems to be too subtle here for a nomination, but who knows…

10. Johnny Depp – Black Mass – Depp is getting raves for his physical transformation and creepy scene in the trailer. I am not ready to anoint this film yet, but I will happily be proven wrong.

11. Mark Ruffalo – Spotlight – I am not really sure who is lead or if there is one, but Ruffalo is one of the most popular guys around. If the movie hits big, he will be taking them there.

12. Jake Gyllenhaal – Southpaw – He has had an incredible run the past few years, but sadly it seems like he is going to have to keep waiting for his second nomination with Demolition getting pushed to 2016.

13. Will Smith – Concussion – Smith is beloved when he has a real role. The film about concussions in professional football seems like a good enough topic, and he is playing with an accent. Is that enough?

14. Brad Pitt – By the Sea – Pitt playing opposite Jolie in Jolie’s film? Yes.

15. Michael B. Jordan – Creed – Coogler directed Jordan to the best performance of 2013, and the trailer for Creed was incredible. Is it serious enough to get real attention?

16. Joseph Gordon-Levitt – The Walk – JGL has put in some nice work in recent years. The movie seems to be a bit too dry compared to the thrill that was Man on Wire, but we will have to wait and see.

BEST DIRECTOR

The Predicted Five

1. Cary Fukunaga – Beasts of No Nation – After True Detective, we all knew that he was riding high. How careful was he with his next feature film? It looks astounding.

2. Tom Hooper – The Danish Girl – Hooper just won in 2010, so maybe they will want to wait before giving him another. The film looks gorgeous, though.

3. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu – The Revenant – I really doubt that this film can really win the big awards after Birdman swept last year, but the Academy has always loved him. His new film looks furious and intense.

4. Thomas McCarthy – Spotlight – McCarthy has had a few acclaimed films that just missed out on Oscar nominations. This is his most serious film to date and one that needs our attention.

5. Danny Boyle – Steve Jobs – Boyle always leaves his mark in his directing jobs, but this appears to be more condensed. It worked for Fincher with The Social Network. He could be the frontrunner if it is as good as it can be.

Others in contention

6. Jay Roach – Trumbo – It might be a tough sell for the director of Meet the Parents and Austin Powers to be an Oscar nominee, but he also did Game Change and Recount. The Hollywood subject is perfect for his brand of satire.

7. Quentin Tarantino – The Hateful Eight – Tarantino is the ultimate wild card in this category. If his film is good enough, he could win. The Academy loves throwbacks and westerns.

8. David O. Russell – Joy – I am going to put him outside the top five just because it gets a little tiresome always putting him in. He is getting nominated, though.

9. Steven Spielberg – Bridge of Spies – How much does the Academy still love him? Lincoln seemed like a shoo-in, but he went home empty-handed. He missed out on a Best Director nom for War Horse. Maybe I am underselling the potential of this film, but I just fear that it is going to underwhelm.

10. Todd Haynes – Carol – Haynes always is an interesting case. He somehow got snubbed back in 2002 for Far from Heaven. His films are always visually impressive. Maybe he is just too lavish for their taste.

11. Ron Howard – In the Heart of the Sea – Howard is always a popular choice when he makes a good film. Putting the film squarely in Oscar season helped the film’s cause and hype.

12. Pete Docter – Inside Out – If there is ever an animated film director that gets in, it would be for a movie like this. It won’t happen, but it is worth discussing.

13. Denis Villeneuve – Sicario – After Incendies and Prisoners, Villeneuve is riding high. This film is getting the buzz to really take over the race in early October.

BEST PICTURE

The Predicted Ten (I predict 9 will get nominated)

1. Beasts of No Nation (Cary Fukunaga) – Is the Academy ready (or will they ever be ready) to give a Netflix original streaming movie the top prize? We will find out this year…

2. Trumbo (Jay Roach) – If they aren’t then they will likely give it to the film that puts Hollywood in the crosshairs.

3. Steve Jobs (Danny Boyle) – The film seems pretty safe for a nomination, but it needs to really have something bigger to offer to win. I think it might.

4. Spotlight (Thomas McCarthy) – If the Academy wants to go with something really serious and controversial, this is their choice.

5. The Danish Girl (Tom Hooper) – If the Academy is in a more British and character-driven piece, then Hooper’s film will get the votes.

6. The Revenant (Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu) – If the Academy really doesn’t care about awards overkill and really wants to give Leo some love, then The Revenant might have a real chance at winning.

7. The Hateful Eight (Quentin Tarantino) – I can’t actually see this film winning Best Picture, but a nomination seems pretty safe if the movie is up to QT’s standards.

8. Inside Out (Pete Docter) – If the Academy has a heart, then this will be nominated. If they have a brain, they will consider it for the win.

9. Joy (David O. Russell) – If the Academy finally wants to give Russell a win, then this will make the list and get nominated everywhere else.

10. Bridge of Spies (Steven Spielberg) – Who am I kidding, this is totally getting nominated, isn’t it?

Others in contention

11. Carol (Todd Haynes) – This seems like more of a character drama than a Best Picture contender, but they have gotten in before. Haynes has never gotten one of his films this far, however.

12. Our Brand is Crisis (David Gordon Green) – Can David Gordon Green become an Oscar nominee? His films have been good enough on occasion. This is his best shot yet.

13. Sicario (Denis Villeneuve) – If the movie has a big box office and strong reviews, I think that this could be a dark horse all throughout awards season.

14. In the Heart of the Sea (Ron Howard) – Ron Howard films are an easy sell. These types of big action pieces haven’t really been their thing for about a decade, but this could change that.

15. Brooklyn (John Crowley) – Romantic dramas like this aren’t always treated well, but I wouldn’t count out a film with this kind of pedigree.

16. Star Wars: Episode VII – The Force Awakens (JJ Abrams) – This is one of the big unknowns in the race. The original was of course nominated everywhere, but all of the other episodes have been overlooked. If it is good enough and explodes at the box office the way we all anticipate, then…maybe? We can only hope.

17. The Good Dinosaur (Peter Sohn) – I am not going to put this completely out of contention, even though it has an uphill climb to even be the best Pixar film in 2015. However, the director of the best animated short I can remember in Partly Cloudy has his debut film coming out. It has to be incredible.

18. Straight Outta Compton (F. Gary Gray) – The box office was greater than anyone could have imagined. The subject is timely and effectively told. The acting is tremendous. Can it snag the final spot? I wouldn’t be entirely surprised, but I would be impressed.

That’s all I got! Surprises? Overlooks? Comments? Let me know. I’d love to discuss.