We are finally reaching the pinnacle of the movie year! The Oscar nominations announcement is coming up, and for the first time in at least 15 years, we really don’t know what is the frontrunner for Best Picture. We have the indie darling Cannes winner, we have the box office sensation, we have a talky drama set in one building, and we have the massive achievement that seems like a shoo-in for Best Director. We have only had one live ceremony, which was the new Golden Globes (not nearly as cool as the old Globes), and they just kinda held serve in most categories.
This isn’t about who is winning just yet, this is all about getting that nomination! Who is in line to make the short lists when the nominations finally come out? Find out below! You can also listen to Episode 304 of the podcast, where Terry and I broke down the major categories.
Also: My Tommy Lee Jones - In the Valley of Elah picks have become more accurate in the last handful of years. Make sure to remember those names…
BEST PICTURE
The Predicted Ten
1. Anora (Sean Baker) - LOCK
2. Emilia Perez (Jacques Audiard) - LOCK
3. The Brutalist (Brady Corbet) - LOCK
4. A Complete Unknown (James Mangold) - LOCK
5. Conclave (Edward Berger) - LOCK
6. Wicked: Part I (Jon M Chu) - LOCK
7. A Real Pain (Jesse Eisenberg) - After the PGA nomination, this seems pretty secure. The screenplay nomination is a lock, as is Supporting Actor. I actually am higher on this than most are. It feels like the one representative from Sundance that gets nominated almost every year.
8. The Substance (Coralie Fargeat) - The movie slightly underperformed with the BAFTA nominations, but it is looking really good. It is hard to imagine a movie like that being as popular as it evidently is, but here we are. It could wind up with 7+ nominations, which would be wild.
9. Dune: Part Two (Denis Villeneuve) - The movie is pretty much dead in the water, but we all remember appreciating it earlier in the year. It has still consistently popped up in the few places it needs to in order to remain in the race. I suspect it will be on most ballots, just maybe not #1 on a ton of them.
10. September 5 (Tim Fehlbaum) - The PGA nomination was key for this movie. It just got released, so the conversation has been really muted. It has always felt like an Academy thing due to the subject matter. This is my stab, seeing the two films right below it that have huge passion, just not enough eyeballs.
Others in contention
11. Sing Sing (Greg Kwedar) - The movie’s campaign has been a disaster. Its re-release is something, and BAFTA did give some life to the situation. However, it has missed in pretty much every detrimental way. The SAG Ensemble snub was brutal.
12. Nickel Boys (RaMell Ross) - The film has the critical support, but it is such a strange experience. The movie will have the technical and artistic vote, but it just doesn’t feel like a movie that will garner the widespread love that is required to get in here.
13. All We Imagine as Light (Payal Kapadia) - The film keeps getting pushed to get in here, but it is becoming more and more apparent that it isn’t that kind of movie. It would be a bizarre inclusion, to be honest.
14. Challengers (Luca Guadagnino) - How much does the online contingent matter? If this shows up, then we really need to rethink how we predict the Oscars and how we view the membership.
BEST DIRECTOR
The Predicted Five
1. Brady Corbet - The Brutalist - LOCK
2. Jacques Audiard - Emilia Perez - LOCK
3. Sean Baker - Anora - LOCK
4. Edward Berger - Conclave - This appears pretty secure, but he got left out last time for an even bigger Best Picture threat and a more obvious technical achievement. So many pundits have his film winning it all this year, but I can’t see it. I actually almost want to predict his snub.
5. RaMell Ross - Nickel Boys - His film is a singular artistic achievement with all the directorial flourishes you can imagine. The movie exists for its director to show his talent, and the directorial branch of the Academy loves that kind of thing. He is the Jonathan Glazer of this year.
Others in contention
6. Coralie Fargeat - The Substance - The main reason this feels wrong is because of the big emphasis the Academy puts on awarding female filmmakers. She is also foreign, which they love in their filmmakers as well. They are a simple group. If she gets nominated, then The Substance is actually way stronger than anyone thought.
7. Payal Kapadia - All We Imagine as Light - She keeps popping up, but having watched the movie, I have no idea why. It is her debut film, so they can easily wait until the next one for her.
8. James Mangold - A Complete Unknown - The DGA nomination secured the film’s place as one of the elite contenders. It would still be a huge step for him to get nominated. Films in the music biopic genre simply don’t compete for Director, unless it’s named Yankee Doodle Dandy, which was 80+ years ago.
9. Denis Villeneuve - Dune: Part Two - He has completely crashed out of the race recently, but BAFTA gave him the slightest glimmer of hope. Once again, his movie will flood the below-the-line categories, but the director evidently didn’t do enough. He is our new Christopher Nolan (except Villeneuve already got a nomination back in 2016).
10. Jon M Chu - Wicked: Part I - This isn’t happening, right? Right? For him to knock out the auteurs and sophisticated foreign directors above would be shocking.
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. Adrien Brody - The Brutalist - LOCK
2. Timothee Chalamet - A Complete Unknown - LOCK
3. Ralph Fiennes - Conclave - LOCK
4. Colman Domingo - Sing Sing - LOCK
5. Sebastian Stan - The Apprentice - The BAFTA love was real, but in the back of my mind I see the SAG vote-splitting snub lingering. I say he gets in, but it is really close.
Others in contention
6. Daniel Craig - Queer - Not getting nominated by his own country was a little strange, especially after the SAG nom. I don’t know what to do with this movie. Guadagnino films are really a wild card in every awards season.
7. Jesse Eisenberg - A Real Pain - His film has the passion behind it, but do they really need to bring him along in Best Actor when he is already getting recognized in Screenplay and Picture? Maybe they view him as the next Woody Allen or Kenneth Branagh…yes, it is that rare to see that collection of nominations for a film’s director-star.
8. Hugh Grant - Heretic - The BAFTA nomination furthered along the campaign for the strangest contender in a long time.
9. Sebastian Stan - A Different Man - As I said on our predictions podcast, this would be his Blood Diamond. It is the more easily digestible performance by an actor doing his absolute best work in another film from the same year. For those who don’t remember, Leonardo DiCaprio was nominated not for Best Picture winning The Departed, but for Blood Diamond with a bad accent.
Tommy Lee Jones - In the Valley of Elah Shocker Nomination - Keith Kupferer - Ghostlight
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. Mikey Madison - Anora - LOCK
2. Demi Moore - The Substance - LOCK
3. Marianne Jean-Baptiste - Hard Truths - This feels like the performance that was snubbed along the way by all the major awards shows, but it was the critics favorite all along. The BAFTA nomination almost made her a lock.
4. Cynthia Erivo - Wicked: Part I - The thing that gives me pause for the past nominee is that she has Part 2 coming out. It would put her in insane company for her to get nominated for both. As far as I know, Bing Crosby is the only actor nominated two years in a row for playing the same character. The movie is so big though. Can they really leave her off?
5. Fernanda Torres - I’m Still Here - The Golden Globe Drama Actress winner has basically never gotten snubbed at the Oscars. The two times it did have huge asterisks next to them (a 3-way tie in 1988 and Kate Winslet getting nominated for a different movie in 2008). We even got Isabelle Huppert knocking out Amy Adams in 2016 to keep the trend going. I have her in, but I also feel like these rules are made to be broken. It is a different Globes voting body now. I will be safe and go with history.
Others in contention
6. Karla Sofia Gascon - Emilia Perez - This is basically guaranteeing that I am going to go 4 for 5. I also feel like if she gets nominated, then that will be the end of gendered categories, and I don’t want to see that go away. We need more Oscar categories, not less acting categories. She gives a unique performance in a terrible movie, but I have always had her in 6th place. I am probably wrong, but whatever. I can’t find the other one to snub.
7. Pamela Anderson - The Last Showgirl - The SAG nomination made her a real contender. However, I feel like it is the same situation as Jennifer Aniston for Cake, Adam Sandler for Hustle, and Sarah Silverman for I Smile Back. It is an actor you never thought you’d see get recognized in a SAG acting category, and that’s really cool. The Oscar nomination was always way further away than we thought, though. Hopefully it leads to more serious work for her.
8. Nicole Kidman - Babygirl - I thought this film would do well at SAG and BAFTA, but it was blanked. That pretty much ends her chances.
9. Angelina Jolie - Maria - Missing at SAG was a bad misstep for Jolie, especially because Netflix overperforms there every year. It is one of her 5 best performances, but she will be left on the outside looking in.
10. Tilda Swinton - The Room Next Door - No one is really talking about this movie, but it weirdly keeps popping up in places. The Academy loves Almodovar. Swinton, however, has only one nomination/win back in 2007.
11. Kate Winslet - Lee - She is Kate Winslet, and weirder things have happened. Her campaign is a lot more grassroots since the movie was underseen, but it just doesn’t have the legs to get in.
12. Saoirse Ronan - The Outrun - Her getting nominated at BAFTA was great to see. They love her, and so does the Academy. She was my frontrunner for the longest time. Can she make a last second push? It would be very Kirsten Stewart in Spencer of her to snag the last spot after getting buried by the major awards circuits.
Tommy Lee Jones - In the Valley of Elah Shocker Nomination - June Squibb - Thelma
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. Kieran Culkin - A Real Pain - LOCK
2. Edward Norton - A Complete Unknown - LOCK
3. Yura Borisov - Anora - LOCK
4. Guy Pearce - The Brutalist - Pearce is the frontrunner for coolest first-time nominee if it happens. The SAG snubs for Ensemble Cast and Supporting Actor were discouraging, but the movie appears to be too strong for him to miss. This is an interesting group, though. I think they right some wrongs of the past and give him his first invite.
5. Clarence Maclin - Sing Sing - He is in the exact same situation as co-star Paul Raci was in 2020 for Sound of Metal. He was the online favorite, the passion choice, and objectively deserved to be nominated. However, he is an unknown actor. His film isn’t the strongest, but still could be nominated for Best Picture. He is also getting nominated for co-writing the screenplay, so does that take some away from needing to vote for him here? Maybe?
Others in contention
6. Jeremy Strong - The Apprentice - The SAG and BAFTA nominations are hard to ignore. He is the highlight of the first half of his movie. It feels weird to predict Stan without Strong, but it doesn’t always work out that way.
7. Denzel Washington - Gladiator II - His BAFTA snub streak lives on. Ridiculous. I thought he was getting nominated until SAG didn’t even go for it. The movie just never struck a chord with audiences the way I thought it would.
8. Jonathan Bailey - Wicked: Part I - The SAG nomination is truly one of the worst nominations in their awards history. They really love this movie, though. He can totally still get in, but it would be at the expense of someone like Edward Norton, which would be horrible.
9. Mark Eidelstein - Anora - It doesn’t make a lot of sense seeing him ignored by every award circuit. He is the scene stealer. If the movie is really in for a Best Picture win and more, then he could be our LaKeith Stanfield last second inclusion to go along with the co-star/real contender in the category.
10. Adam Pearson - A Different Man - He hasn’t really shown up as much as I expected. He could be the Jessie Buckley in The Lost Daughter nomination that comes along with the actor who is getting in. That would also require Stan to get nominated for the wrong movie, but it could happen.
Tommy Lee Jones - In the Valley of Elah Shocker Nomination - Peter Sarsgaard - September 5
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. Zoe Saldana - Emilia Perez - LOCK
2. Ariana Grande - Wicked: Part I - LOCK
3. Isabella Rossellini - Conclave - Her nomination haul is stacking up. She isn’t a lock, though, after the SAG snub. Her moment in the movie gets a big reaction, which will likely stick in the minds of every viewer and voter. She has never been nominated and is a legacy actor. I think she gets her first nomination here.
4. Margaret Qualley - The Substance - She has a shaky path all of this sudden after her recent snubs. The movie is strong, and she feels like the Sally Hawkins in Blue Jasmine type who will come along for the ride with the Best Actress nominee/maybe winner.
5. Danielle Deadwyler - The Piano Lesson - She appears set to get the Paul Giamatti in Cinderella Man makeup nomination for her atrocious snub for Till. She was the standout of an otherwise forgettable movie. She deserves it, and the SAG nomination should be enough to push her through.
Others in contention
6. Felicity Jones - The Brutalist - Her campaign has been on and off all season. If the movie is winning Best Picture, she gets nominated. If it is weaker than we think, she gets snubbed. It is 50/50 at this point.
7. Jamie Lee Curtis - The Last Showgirl - The BAFTA and SAG nominations are so weird. The movie is so small, and she does steal some scenes, but it is a really small performance. I can see her getting her validation nomination, but she really doesn’t need it.
8. Monica Barbaro - A Complete Unknown - She was the one singled out at SAG, which is a cool inclusion. She is terrific in the movie, but she also has a co-star in the running.
9. Elle Fanning - A Complete Unknown - She will likely split votes with Barbaro. She is the more established actor and one of our best actors without a nomination. The NBR win was a nice start to the season, but not enough voting bodies piggybacked on that and all but ended her chances.
10. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor - Nickel Boys - The part is incredibly small. If only Exhibiting Forgiveness got the push that Nickel Boys did, then we would certainly be talking about a higher ranking.
11. Selena Gomez - Emilia Perez - She is actively terrible in the movie, but she has the fans and the BAFTA nomination. I can’t see her name being called on Oscar nomination morning, but I said the same thing about Jamie Lee Curtis two years ago.
Tommy Lee Jones - In the Valley of Elah Shocker Nomination - Fernanda Montenegro - I’m Still Here
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Predicted Five
1. Anora - Sean Baker - LOCK
2. The Brutalist - Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold - LOCK
3. A Real Pain - Jesse Eisenberg - LOCK
4. The Substance - Coralie Fargeat - LOCK
5. September 5 - Tim Fehlbaum, Moritz Binder, Alex David - The movie is still a stealth contender. From the moment I saw the movie, I knew this was going to get nominated in Picture, Editing, and Screenplay. However, it has been a bumpy road for the late starter. I have it in, but there are other formidable contenders.
Others in contention
6. All We Imagine as Light - Payal Kapadia - As I said earlier, this doesn’t feel like as big of a contender as many make it out to be. It clearly has its fans, and was one of the big standouts out of Cannes. The Academy is very international nowadays, and there usually is one foreign film in the screenplay mix. This appears to be the best chance for that.
7. Hard Truths - Mike Leigh - BAFTA wasn’t as big on the movie as you would have thought, but if you pay attention, the Academy loves Leigh as much or more than his own country does. It would be an inspired pick, as usual.
8. Challengers - Justin Kuritzkes - There is always room in the Original Screenplay category for an offbeat and amazing pick like Knives Out, Nightcrawler, The Lobster, etc. It would be a surprise, but we all remember how much we loved the movie back in April. Can it make a last second surge?
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Predicted Five
1. Conclave - Peter Straughan - LOCK
2. Sing Sing - Greg Kwedar, Clint Bentley, Clarence Maclin, John “Divine G” Whitfield - LOCK
3. Emilia Perez - Jacques Audiard - LOCK
4. A Complete Unknown - James Mangold, Jay Cocks - These types of movies don’t really get screenplay nominations, but the movie is better than most in the genre. Both writers have been nominated in this category before. If it makes a run at winning this category, then this could actually be our Best Picture winner.
5. Nickel Boys - RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes - The screenplay is undeniable in the film. It has shown up everywhere it has needed to. This is the best chance for the film to get a nomination, and I think it still happens, even though the buzz has faded.
Others in contention
6. Dune: Part Two - Denis Villeneuve, Jon Spaihts - This one feels wrong to leave off, but given the state of the race, I can’t really picture the screenplay getting singled out without the director. It happened a couple years ago in this saga, but that is hard to predict.
7. Wicked: Part I - Winnie Holzman, Dana Fox - Musicals typically fail to get screenplay nominations. I already have one getting in above, but that is a unique case. I would be really surprised if this goes all the way.
8. I’m Still Here - Murilo Hauser, Heitor Lorega - The foreign screenplay contender is a thing. Although you could say Emilia Perez already took care of that. Let’s go with that, mainly because I don’t know what to boot out and this does feel like a nominee.
9. Hit Man - Richard Linklater, Glen Powell - This would be a fun way for Powell to get his first nomination. If it was an original screenplay, it would fit in a lot more with the surprise nominees. It is a little too hip to get the Adapted Screenplay mention.
10. The Room Next Door - Pedro Almodovar - The Academy loves Almodovar. If this comes out of nowhere to get in here, then I really don’t know what’s going on. His films do usually get a nomination somewhere.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. The Brutalist
2. Nickel Boys
3. Nosferatu
4. Dune: Part Two
5. A Complete Unknown
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
1. Gladiator II
2. The Brutalist
3. Nosferatu
4. Dune: Part Two
5. Wicked: Part I
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
1. Wicked: Part I
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Nosferatu
4. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
5. Gladiator II
BEST SOUND
1. Dune: Part Two
2. A Complete Unknown
3. Gladiator II
4. Wicked: Part I
5. Emilia Perez
BEST EDITING
1. Conclave
2. Anora
3. September 5
4. Challengers
5. Dune: Part Two
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
1. Dune: Part Two
2. Better Man
3. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
4. Wicked: Part I
5. Alien: Romulus
BEST MAKEUP/HAIR
1. The Substance
2. A Different Man
3. Emilia Perez
4. Nosferatu
5. Wicked: Part I
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
1. “El Mal” - Emilia Perez
2. “Mi Camino” - Emilia Perez
3. “The Journey” - The Six Triple Eight
4. “Kiss the Sky” - The Wild Robot
5. “Compress/Repress” - Challengers
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1. The Brutalist
2. Conclave
3. Challengers
4. Emilia Perez
5. Horizon: An American Saga - Chapter 1
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1. No Other Land
2. Daughters
3. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
4. Dahomey
5. Porcelain War
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
1. Flow
2. The Wild Robot
3. Inside Out 2
4. Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
5. Memoir of a Snail
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
1. Emilia Perez
2. I’m Still Here
3. Kneecap
4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig
5. Vermiglio
Predicted Nominations Count
Emilia Perez: 10 noms / 3 wins
The Brutalist: 8 noms / 4 wins
Wicked: Part I: 8 noms / 1 win
Conclave: 7 noms / 2 wins
Anora: 6 noms / 3 wins
Dune: Part Two: 6 noms / 2 wins
A Complete Unknown: 6 noms
The Substance: 5 noms / 1 win
Nosferatu: 4 noms
Gladiator II: 3 noms / 1 win
A Real Pain: 3 noms / 1 win
Challengers: 3 noms
Nickel Boys: 3 noms
September 5: 3 noms
Sing Sing: 3 noms
I’m Still Here: 2 noms
The Wild Robot: 2 noms
Flow: 1 nom / 1 win
No Other Land: 1 nom / 1 win
Alien: Romulus: 1 nom
The Apprentice: 1 nom
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice: 1 nom
Better Man: 1 nom
Dahomey: 1 nom
Daughters: 1 nom
A Different Man: 1 nom
Hard Truths: 1 nom
Horizon: An American Saga - Chapter 1: 1 nom
Inside Out 2: 1 nom
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: 1 nom
Kneecap: 1 nom
Memoir of a Snail: 1 nom
The Piano Lesson: 1 nom
Porcelain War: 1 nom
The Seed of the Sacred Fig: 1 nom
The Six Triple Eight: 1 nom
Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat: 1 nom
Vermiglio: 1 nom
Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl: 1 nom
There you have it! Take notes! Which prediction do you feel the best about? Which film will lead in nominations? Let me know in the comments!
The nominations get announced on Thursday, January 23rd. Stay tuned for my annual reactions article, including the Coolest First-Time Nominees and Biggest Snubs!
