The Oscar nominations will be announced on Thursday, January 22nd. This season has been pretty much dominated by a few films, but there are some other films that are lingering and could get 5+ nominations completely under the radar. Will One Battle After Another break the acting nominations record? Will Sinners break the nominations record and get that elusive 15th nom? Is there really a Tommy Lee Jones - In the Valley of Elah potential nominee out there? Does anyone know what to do about the Best Casting category?
This year is quite a bit more difficult without the BAFTA nominees pointing us toward which movies have the international contingent behind them, and we are also missing a handful of guild nominations, but that is why you have me! I’ve got this! Your nominees are…
BEST PICTURE
The Predicted Ten
1. One Battle After Another (Paul Thomas Anderson) - LOCK
2. Hamnet (Chloe Zhao) - LOCK
3. Sinners (Ryan Coogler) - LOCK
4. Marty Supreme (Josh Safdie) - LOCK
5. Frankenstein (Guillermo del Toro) - LOCK
6. Sentimental Value (Joachim Trier) - LOCK
7. Bugonia (Yorgos Lanthimos) - Things are looking really good for the bizarre comedy-sci-fi film by the Academy favorite. It appeared all over the BAFTA longlists, and it really hasn’t missed anywhere it needed to get in. This genre has zero history at the Oscars, but here we are.
8. The Secret Agent (Kleber Mendonça Filho) - The movie blew past It Was Just an Accident as the top foreign film at almost every awards show. Sentimental Value is almost being considered a different category, so The Secret Agent has everyone’s attention. It has a pretty much locked-up acting nomination. Is this going to be a yearly thing with Brazil? Yes.
9. Train Dreams (Clint Bentley) - The movie is the smallest of contenders, but it has incredible passion following it. You have to respect Bentley and Kwedar back-to-back years providing a spotlight on unlikely Oscar contenders (Sing Sing in 2024). This feels almost like a lock, but I can’t quite use that term with something so small and subdued.
10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (James Cameron) - This was the toughest call. It really hasn’t been showing up in many places, but the box office speaks for itself. James Cameron sells himself, and why not? Is anyone really going to argue?
Others in contention
11. It Was Just an Accident (Jafar Panahi) - This one is a strange case. About a month ago, it was in the driver’s seat for maybe a half dozen nominations, but now it can’t even hold on to grab a BP nom. Not all the Cannes winners have the spotlight as bright as they have in recent years. It really needed to take home something at the Globes for Panahi to get on stage, but it was beat out in every category. Anatomy of a Fall, this is not.
12. F1: The Movie (Joseph Kosinski) - The movie has the pedigree to get in, and Kosinski has done this in the past. This is not Top Gun: Maverick, but it is the dad movie of the year. I can see this having the same appeal that something like Ford v Ferrari had and get in without contending in any other above-the-line categories.
13. Wicked: For Good (Jon M. Chu) - The buzz has completely fallen flat for the second half of the story. The first one was a phenomenon, but I feel like no one went back to see this one. The performances are actually better, and it looks better, but there just isn’t much going on here. Missing at PGA was the nail in the coffin.
14. Weapons (Zach Cregger) - I am baffled that this is a contender, but it got in at PGA and is a stealth screenplay contender. It has a locked and loaded Supporting Actress nomination. This would be insane, but when this was released, it had everyone talking as much as One Battle After Another did. The horror bias took a backseat last year for The Substance. Why not here?
BEST DIRECTOR
The Predicted Five
1. Paul Thomas Anderson - One Battle After Another - LOCK
2. Chloe Zhao - Hamnet - LOCK
3. Guillermo del Toro - Frankenstein - LOCK
4. Ryan Coogler - Sinners - It is so difficult to see exactly what the Academy is thinking. Coogler has put in the time, and his movie is on track for a record amount of nominations. Denis Villeneuve would remind us that that doesn’t necessarily lead to a Best Director nom. This snub would suck, but I can see it happening. The Academy needs to spotlight its foreign directors.
5. Kleber Mendonça Filho - The Secret Agent - He has had an incredible run in recent weeks. The movie is huge and sprawling, and Brazil will not let us forget about it. He won Best Director at Cannes. His film is in line to take home International Film. He’s in…I think.
Others in contention
6. Jafar Panahi - It Was Just an Accident - The Academy likes to make a statement with its nominations. This is starting to feel more like an Asghar Farhadi kind of thing than a true Best Picture contender. He could still get the nom, but he just hasn’t had the luck at racking up wins in any category leading up to this. The Critics Choice and Golden Globes, which should have been all over this, went with The Secret Agent.
7. Josh Safdie - Marty Supreme - He got the DGA nomination, which is huge. They also had no foreign filmmakers in that lineup, so it would be easy to drop out the one young American who made a non-traditional Oscar movie. He directs the hell out of everything he does, but he might need to wait for another film before he gets in here.
8. Yorgos Lanthimos - Bugonia - I almost put him in the top 5. He has really been a mainstay at the Oscars, and this is strangely a real contender. I don’t see why they wouldn’t give him some love, but he does have some powerhouse international directors in the mix. If he gets nominated, then it will be hard to not treat him like another Inarritu in the coming years.
9. Joachim Trier - Sentimental Value - He should be getting nominated, right? Everything pointed toward this being his big Oscar breakout after getting his screenplay nom in 2021. It is a tough category with all these beloved foreign films in the mix. I feel like this might be his Three Billboards, and his next film will be nominated in every eligible category.
10. Oliver Laxe - Sirat - The below-the-line longlists were huge for Laxe. If this is really a contender in most of the ensuing categories, then why not put the director in there? This could be the Cold War of the year.
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. Timothee Chalamet - Marty Supreme - LOCK
2. Leonardo DiCaprio - One Battle After Another - LOCK
3. Ethan Hawke - Blue Moon - LOCK
4. Wagner Moura - The Secret Agent - LOCK
5. Joel Edgerton - Train Dreams - His role is so subtle. He has put in his time, and I feel like that might be enough. This really is his best opportunity to get a nomination, and the Best Picture nomination should push him through. Netflix gets its actors nominated.
Others in contention
6. Michael B. Jordan - Sinners - This one hurts. I always thought he was a stretch to get nominated since he really doesn’t have an Oscar scene, but what he does is really impressive, giving two characters completely unique personas. He should have a win on his resume from Fruitvale Station. Maybe he needs another smaller film in order to really show what he can do again.
7. Jesse Plemons - Bugonia - The SAG nomination is pretty bonkers. I would be shocked if he really takes that character to the Oscars, but the Academy adores Lanthimos and his actors. He is already part of the club. It isn’t impossible.
Tommy Lee Jones - In the Valley of Elah Shocker Nomination - Benicio Del Toro - The Phoenician Scheme
*The true spirit of the award*
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. Jessie Buckley - Hamnet - LOCK
2. Emma Stone - Bugonia - LOCK
3. Rose Byrne - If I Had Legs I’d Kick You - LOCK
4. Renate Reinsve - Sentimental Value - The SAG snub, which also happened to all of the foreign actors, was tough. She still seems to be in a good spot with her film being so strong. She had to be really close in 2021, so this will be a makeup nomination as much as anything.
5. Kate Hudson - Song Sung Blue - She got in at SAG and the Globes. She hasn’t been nominated in 25 years. She hasn’t really had much of a shot since then either. She is a beloved second generation star. The movie is making waves at the box office. That should be enough to get her in, but some people just really aren’t taking her film seriously.
Others in contention
6. Amanda Seyfried - The Testament of Ann Lee - Her film has the reviews, the pedigree, and the impact to be a contender in every category. She has been ignored by all of the industry awards so far, which is tragic. She commits to the role as much as anyone did in 2025. There are some times where we get a Kristen Stewart in Spencer and the critics favorite only shows up at the Oscars, but she wasn’t even singled out to that extent. I almost want to include her, but I can’t take that stab. It feels too much like Marianne Jean-Baptiste last year.
7. Chase Infiniti - One Battle After Another - She is so young that she doesn’t need to be nominated yet. That doesn’t always stop the Academy, but I also have another reason for leaving her out of this category. Keep reading…
8. Eva Victor - Sorry, Baby - After the shoutout by Julia Roberts at the Golden Globes, hopefully voters are checking out this film. She is amazing in it, and if there is a rising star spotlight nomination this year, it would be right here.
9. Tessa Thompson - Hedda - She does everything in the film you could possibly want for someone looking for an Oscar nomination. I have no idea why this didn’t catch on. I felt the same way about Passing. Does the industry secretly not like her? I can’t figure it out.
10. Kathleen Chalfant - Familiar Touch - The National Society of Film Critics went with her. In recent years, the Oscars are just an extension of critics awards, so this isn’t impossible. It would be a bit like Charlotte Rampling for 45 Years, but she isn’t as recognizable of a face.
11. Cynthia Erivo - Wicked: For Good - She got in the last time, but the second one would put her in rarified air. She needed ecstatic reviews, which this movie never had. I think she is all but done. She is also low-key kinda supporting in the movie.
Tommy Lee Jones - In the Valley of Elah Shocker Nomination - Sydney Sweeney - Christy
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. Jacob Elordi - Frankenstein - LOCK
2. Stellen Skarsgard - Sentimental Value - LOCK
3. Benicio Del Toro - One Battle After Another - LOCK
4. Paul Mescal - Hamnet - LOCK
5. Delroy Lindo - Sinners - There has to be a surprise somewhere. He has been in so many great films over the years. He missed out at the last minute for Da 5 Bloods, but this might be his best performance. He steals the movie. He doesn’t have the necessary precursors, but the BAFTA longlist mention proves this might be the Ciaran Hinds in Belfast of the film, where Miles Caton got the SAG love. I like this stab.
Others in contention
6. Sean Penn - One Battle After Another - He was expected to just clean up the televised awards shows, but I honestly don’t know if anyone really cares about his character. This feels like the shocking snub that De Niro got for The Irishman. How could the movie do so well without him? It feels like a snub. Jack Nicholson in 2006 is also a pretty clear comp.
7. Adam Sandler - Jay Kelly - This sucks for Sandler. The movie was just never embraced the way it should have been by the Hollywood groups. Sometimes I really can’t figure out exactly what they are looking for. He will get a nomination one day, but he will need a crazy last minute surge to get it for Jay Kelly.
8. Miles Caton - Sinners - The SAG nomination was huge. I thought he was pretty clearly a lead, but he is going for it. Everyone seems to love him. If he really wants to be an actor in the future, then his first nomination shouldn’t be too far away.
Tommy Lee Jones - In the Valley of Elah Shocker Nomination - Andrew Scott - Blue Moon
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. Teyana Taylor - One Battle After Another - LOCK
2. Amy Madigan - Weapons - LOCK
3. Igna Ibsdotter Lilleaas - Sentimental Value - LOCK
4. Wunmi Mosaku - Sinners - I don’t know what to do with her. This is a nomination I wouldn’t really understand, but she got the SAG nomination. There are groups that were really blown away by her, but similar to Aunjanue Ellis in King Richard, I don’t see it. She is close to a lock, but there are some real contenders behind her.
5. Chase Infiniti - One Battle After Another - This is where it gets interesting. Never forget Lakeith Stanfield’s pure leading role getting a last second supporting nomination since the Academy doesn’t play by any campaigning rules. She isn’t really the lead, which has been a thing recently, but she was immediately pushed lead for some strange reason. This makes more sense as a supporting nomination than a leading one. People really love her. Just saying, you heard it here first.
Others in contention
6. Odessa A’zion - Marty Supreme - The SAG nomination put her in position to take that fifth spot pretty easily. It is rare to get nominated for the first time the majority of the audience ever sees you, so I have her just missing out.
7. Gwyneth Paltrow - Marty Supreme - This feels like Michael Shannon getting nominated for a small role over Aaron Taylor-Johnson in Nocturnal Animals. Paltrow hasn’t been nominated since her win in 1998, which is something worth considering. It feels like a facepalm nomination that I should have seen coming.
8. Ariana Grande - Wicked: For Good - This feels wrong having her down this low, but I just don’t know who is voting for these actors for a second straight year. She got the SAG and Globes noms, but it’s tough. She is the lead in the movie as well, so there might be some category confusion that causes her to miss.
9. Elle Fanning - Sentimental Value - She was the frontrunner heading into the season, but she was quickly passed up by her co-star in a role that is much less showy and by an unknown actor. Sounds pretty familiar, since Fanning took NBR last year and Monica Barbaro got the nom in the end. I don’t understand what voters have against her.
10. Glenn Close - Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery - Her part in the film is crucial, but do we need an acting nomination for this? Probably not, but then again, she was nominated for The Wife and Hillbilly Elegy. Anything is possible with Close.
11. Regina Hall - One Battle After Another - I have never understood her buzz, but if we are in for an all time sweep the way some are predicting, then this becomes a real possibility. She has been putting in some pretty great work in recent years as well.
Tommy Lee Jones - In the Valley of Elah Shocker Nomination - Rebecca Ferguson - A House of Dynamite
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Predicted Five
1. Sinners - Ryan Coogler - LOCK
2. Marty Supreme - Josh Safdie, Ronald Bronstein - LOCK
3. Sentimental Value - Joachim Trier, Eskil Vogt - LOCK
4. The Secret Agent - Kleber Mendonça Filho - There is usually an unexpected foreign film to snag a nomination in the screenplay categories. The momentum is all with The Secret Agent at the moment. It is a pretty complex story. I think it gets in.
5. Weapons - Zach Cregger - The movie would have been a lock about 20 years ago with its interlocking storylines and colorful characters. This would be a fascinating choice, but it is really in the driver’s seat for the fifth slot. It checks all the boxes, other than it being in a forbidden genre. However, there are at least a handful of horror films in the running this year. This is by far the most popular with the normie contingent of the Academy.
Others in contention
6. It Was Just an Accident - Jafar Panahi - This should be locked in. I really thought he was going to win at the Globes, but it went to PTA in a sweep. The buzz has been almost muted in recent weeks, which I don’t really understand. The movie even feels a bit more digestible than most foreign Oscar contenders.
7. Sorry, Baby - Eva Victor - If we get a Frozen River or something similar this year, it is right here. She might need to settle for Spirit Awards, but her getting recognized by the other televised awards with nominations keeps her in the running. The online contingent has been pushing for her to get in here, and that has actually been effective the last few years. I just can’t put her ahead of the foreign auteurs.
8. Blue Moon - Robert Kaplow - If the Academy wants to go with something that feels classic, it would be Linklater’s film basically set in one room. It is sort of an acting showcase, but the writing is sharp. It would be a surprise for sure, and it might imply I am missing a Best Picture contender, but I can see a world where this gets in. The BAFTA longlist inclusion was something worth noting.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Predicted Five
1. One Battle After Another - Paul Thomas Anderson - LOCK
2. Hamnet - Chloe Zhao - LOCK
3. Bugonia - Will Tracy - LOCK
4. Train Dreams - Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar - There is part of me that sees this movie getting shut out somehow. However, this group got nominated last year. This screenplay is heartbreaking and absolutely authentic. It has to get nominated.
5. No Other Choice - Park Chan-wook, Lee Kyoung-mi, Don McKellar, Lee Ja-hye - I am trying to keep this alive. I was all over Decision to Leave, but that was pushed aside all awards season. The next one should be the one to get Park his first nomination. The script feels very Academy friendly. He has several bangers on his resume. Even though it has no chance to get nominated in several other important categories, this still feels like it’s happening.
Others in contention
6. Frankenstein - Guillermo del Toro - If this screenplay gets nominated, then maybe the film is actually #3 for Best Picture. The Academy worships del Toro, so maybe this happens regardless, but it would be a weak throwaway nomination for the technical marvel.
7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery - Rian Johnson - The first two films got in for their screenplays. Is this really in the category of the Before series or the Toy Story series? Absolutely not, but the screenplays are a blast and unique. They don’t need to recognize this one, but it might happen anyway.
8. The Life of Chuck - Mike Flanagan - Does anyone remember the TIFF Audience winner from 2024? I’m not sure, but the screenplay was absolutely Academy catnip. There is something to be said about the feeling of watching the nominations live and seeing something like this and just shaking your head in disbelief that you second-guessed yourself. I should put this in at #4.
9. Nuremberg - James Vanderbilt - The movie has its fans, and it keeps holding on in several categories. This would be hilarious because it would be the September 5 of the year and make all the online prognosticators scoff at old-fashioned Oscar bait still having a place at…the Oscars. I am rooting for it, and I haven’t seen it.
BEST CASTING
The Predicted Five
1. Sinners - Francine Maisler - I can’t say anything is a lock when I do not even know what the voting criteria is. Is it an Ensemble Award? Is it about finding non-actors to give great performances? Do the casting directors have their own contingent of voters and fans? Is it just another Best Picture award? We do not know. The casting in this movie is off the charts, though. Every principal character is perfect for their role. Finding Miles Caton for that part is everything.
2. One Battle After Another - Cassandra Kulukundis - The casting is really creative in this. DiCaprio of course sells the movie on his own, but Infiniti’s debut and the scene-stealing supporting parts are all fantastic. This is probably a lock regardless of the criteria.
3. Hamnet - Nina Gold - I am guessing this category will be unimaginative in its first year and just give it to the top BP contenders or the SAG Ensemble nominees. In this case, those are the same 5 films. Hamnet has 2 predicted acting nominations and a couple astonishing child actors. That should be enough to get the casting nomination, right?
4. Frankenstein - Robin D. Cook - I don’t love this, but it makes sense. Thinking of Elordi to play Frankenstein’s Monster the same year that Christian Bale was chosen to play the same role deserves all the awards.
5. Marty Supreme - Jennifer Venditti - If we are giving the award to the most creative and authentic casting, this movie really would deserve it. Listen to our review of the film when we spend half the time marveling at the insane list of random people, not actors…people, who are in this and effective in this.
Others in contention
6. Sentimental Value - Yngvill Kolset Haga, Avy Kaufman - This is the most flawlessly cast movie of the year. Kaufman is a name, but I don’t know how much that matters in this category. This really should be nominated. Maybe I went too safe.
7. Wicked: For Good - Tiffany Little Canfield, Bernard Tesley - This was my original pick a few months ago before the movie premiered. If it was for the first film too, then this could be the winner. Since this one is an exponentially weaker contender and the new casting choices aren’t very significant, I think it gets left out.
8. Weapons - Allison Jones - If you want a great group of actors and an insane comeback actor to play the main villain, then maybe that is what the category is going for. Does this movie have a little in common with Little Children? I had never thought about that until just typing that out.
9. The Secret Agent - Gabriel Domingues - Is it really just about finding one great actor for the lead and let the rest of the pieces fall in place? That is what BAFTA did when Joker won the award in 2019 in the category’s first year.
10. Sirat - Nadia Acimi, Luis Bertolo, Maria Rodgrigo - I don't even know what to think about this movie making the longlist. The characters are pretty fleshed-out. If this gets nominated, then this could really be winning International Feature.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. Sinners
2. Train Dreams
3. Frankenstein
4. One Battle After Another
5. Nouvelle Vague
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
1. Frankenstein
2. Sinners
3. Wicked: For Good
4. One Battle After Another
5. Bugonia
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
1. Frankenstein
2. Hamnet
3. Sinners
4. Wicked: For Good
5. Hedda
BEST SOUND
1. F1: The Movie
2. Sinners
3. Avatar: Fire and Ash
4. One Battle After Another
5. Sirat
BEST EDITING
1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. Marty Supreme
4. F1: The Movie
5. Frankenstein
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
2. Frankenstein
3. Superman
4. The Lost Bus
5. Sinners
BEST MAKEUP/HAIR
1. Frankenstein
2. Sinners
3. The Smashing Machine
4. Wicked: For Good
5. Kukoho
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
1. “Golden” - KPop Demon Hunters
2. “I Lied to You” - Sinners
3. “Dear Me” - Diane Warren: Relentless
4. “The Girl in the Bubble” - Wicked: For Good
5. “Drive” - F1: The Movie
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1. Sinners
2. Hamnet
3. Frankenstein
4. One Battle After Another
5. Sirat
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1. The Perfect Neighbor
2. 2000 Meters to Andriivka
3. Cover-Up
4. Seeds
5. Apocalypse in the Tropics
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
1. KPop Demon Hunters
2. Zootopia 2
3. Arco
4. Elio
5. Little Amelie or the Character of Rain
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
1. The Secret Agent
2. Sentimental Value
3. It Was Just an Accident
4. Sirat
5. No Other Choice
Predicted Nominations Count
Sinners: 15 noms (a record) / 4 wins
One Battle After Another: 13 noms / 5 wins
Frankenstein: 11 noms / 3 wins
Hamnet: 8 noms / 1 win
Sentimental Value: 6 noms
Marty Supreme: 5 noms / 1 win
The Secret Agent: 5 noms / 1 win
Bugonia: 4 noms
Train Dreams: 4 noms
Wicked: For Good: 4 noms
Avatar: Fire and Ash: 3 noms / 1 win
F1: The Movie: 3 noms / 1 win
Sirat: 3 noms
KPop Demon Hunters: 2 noms / 2 wins
No Other Choice: 2 noms
Weapons: 2 noms
The Perfect Neighbor: 1 nom / 1 win
2000 Meters to Andriivka: 1 nom
Apocalypse in the Tropics: 1 nom
Arco: 1 nom
Blue Moon: 1 nom
Cover-Up: 1 nom
Diane Warren: Relentless: 1 nom
Elio: 1 nom
Hedda: 1 nom
If I Had Legs I'd Kick You: 1 nom
It Was Just an Accident: 1 nom
Kokuho: 1 nom
Little Amelie or the Character of Rain: 1 nom
The Lost Bus: 1 nom
Nouvelle Vague: 1 nom
Seeds: 1 nom
The Smashing Machine: 1 nom
Superman: 1 nom
Song Sung Blue: 1 nom
Zootopia 2: 1 nom
There you have it! Take notes! Keep a look out for my Reactions to the Nominations, which will include the Top 10 Biggest Snubs and Coolest First-Time Nominees. Happy Oscar Season!
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