Happy nomination morning! We had history made this year with Sinners actually shattering the nomination record by getting 16 total Oscar nominations. I know, there was a new category this year…but it broke the record by 2. And it would have picked up another if the Sound categories hadn’t been split five years ago. One Battle After Another held serve as the frontrunner. Marty Supreme and Sentimental Value got in every possible category. Hamnet did really well aside from a few key misses that absolutely ended its Best Picture candidacy. I had a few good stabs and a few really bad stabs. Check out my category-by-category reactions below, and see my Coolest First-Time Nominees and Biggest Snubs at the bottom!
BEST PICTURE
F1: The Movie
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Train Dreams
The Secret Agent
Bugonia
Predicted: 9 for 10
Reactions: We all had a slightly different way of looking at the 10th spot that went to F1. I had Avatar making it in that spot, which I can’t be too upset about. It low-key overperformed below-the-line, so it probably was #11. However, F1 did better and made it pretty obvious that it was the choice for that spot by the time this category was announced. They really loved a few of these movies. The nomination totals for individual movies was insane this year.
Preliminary prediction: Sinners
BEST DIRECTOR
Chloe Zhao - Hamnet
Paul Thomas Anderson - One Battle After Another
Ryan Coogler - Sinners
Joachim Trier - Sentimental Value
Josh Safdie - Marty Supreme
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: Lock failure #1. I had Guillermo del Toro getting in for his technical marvel, as well as Kleber Mendonca Filho for The Secret Agent. I missed Trier (that was totally my bad after Sentimental Value swept the European Film Awards) and Safdie, whose movie I simply underestimated. This is a cool group! It is not nearly as international as it usually is. These films are the main contenders. This category is over, though.
Preliminary prediction: Paul Thomas Anderson
BEST ACTOR
Timothee Chalamet - Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio - One Battle After Another
Ethan Hawke - Blue Moon
Michael B. Jordan - Sinners
Wagner Moura - The Secret Agent
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I took a stab with Jordan missing in favor of Joe Edgerton, which I still don’t feel bad about. Train Dreams was clearly beloved, but Sinners was just an unstoppable force. I guess this is probably what most prognosticators had. I went for the win!
Preliminary prediction: Timothee Chalamet
BEST ACTRESS
Jessie Buckley - Hamnet
Rose Byrne - If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Renate Reinsve - Sentimental Value
Emma Stone - Bugonia
Kate Hudson - Song Sung Blue
Predicted: 5 for 5
Reactions: They really love Emma Stone. I got this category nailed. I knew Chase Infiniti was all smoke and mirrors in this category. It still could have happened, but my reasoning for having her miss was sound. I just screwed it up later on. Pour one out for Amanda Seyfried! She didn’t deserve to get snubbed everywhere.
Preliminary prediction: Jessie Buckley
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Benicio Del Toro - One Battle After Another
Sean Penn - One Battle After Another
Stellen Skarsgard - Sentimental Value
Jacob Elordi - Frankenstein
Delroy Lindo - Sinners
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: Lock failure #2. I cannot believe they left Paul Mescal out. I had him in for Sean Penn. I thought I had the thing nailed with my longshot stab of Lindo, not realizing until minutes later who they left off in order to sneak in the constantly snubbed veteran. I guess Mescal could have had a bit of category confusion, but I really don’t think that was an issue. Sinners simply cleaned up everywhere.
Preliminary prediction: Stellen Skarsgard
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Elle Fanning - Sentimental Value
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas - Sentimental Value
Amy Madigan - Weapons
Teyana Taylor - One Battle After Another
Wunmi Mosaku - Sinners
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I had Chase Infiniti snagging the last spot in a shocker. Elle Fanning! I thought her chances were over after missing SAG and the BAFTA longlist. That is her first of hopefully many nominations in her still young career. Madigan defied the odds taking that random horror movie to the Oscars. Teyana Taylor gets the nomination she should have gotten for A Thousand and One. The double nomination for Sentimental Value here is huge. I love this. Madigan is the only previous nominee, which was for a movie 40 years ago.
Preliminary prediction: Teyana Taylor
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Blue Moon
It Was Just an Accident
Marty Supreme
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I had The Secret Agent and Weapons securing the final two spots instead of It Was Just an Accident and Blue Moon. This is a bizarre group! Blue Moon is a unique nominee and shows the strength of Ethan Hawke. A SAG win could be a sign of the gap closing between Chalamet and the field. Jafar Panahi gets his nomination here, which is beautiful. I had his film going away with an incredibly disappointing solo International Feature nom.
Preliminary prediction: Sinners
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Hamnet
One Battle After Another
Train Dreams
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I had No Other Choice (shut out) instead of Frankenstein. So the director gets snubbed, but the terrible screenplay gets in? Got it…no I don’t. This is a pretty fun lineup though. Back-to-back nominations for the Sing Sing/Train Dreams duo. This is going to PTA though. Of all the awards, the screenplay is where the movie is really a miracle
Preliminary prediction: One Battle After Another
BEST CASTING
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
The Secret Agent
Sinners
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: So, Sentimental Value gets 4 actors nominated, but doesn’t get nominated for Casting? Yeah, ok… The Academy is still working out the kinks in the brand new category. I had Frankenstein getting nominated over The Secret Agent. That is an interesting nomination that I do not entirely understand, but I am here for it. I don’t want this to be a predictable Ensemble Cast award or anything. The rest of the main players all showed up, though.
Preliminary prediction: Sinners
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Frankenstein
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Train Dreams
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I took a stab with Nouvelle Vague getting in over Marty Supreme. This is the type of thing that shows the strength of Marty. I don’t even really get this nomination, but I like it! Train Dreams should be taking this. It is gorgeous cinematography. This is the start of the downfall for Hamnet. It needed to get in here.
Preliminary prediction: Sinners
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
Sinners
One Battle After Another
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: Eek…I had Bugonia and Wicked: For Good (SHUT OUT) in over Marty and Hamnet. I guess I can sign off on those nominations. It is so interesting that Wicked got in for everything last year, then, with the same crafts and performances, misses everywhere this year. I’m not sure I understand the logic there. We have seen these types of things all throughout Hollywood history, and they usually still pop up if they are good enough. Unless they were never good enough, in which case, why were we bombarded with it last year? Anyway, I digress. This is going to Frankenstein.
Preliminary prediction: Frankenstein
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Sinners
Marty Supreme
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: Marty again? Ok… I had that and Avatar missing in favor of Hedda and Wicked. Avatar getting in here is a real shocker. I don’t know how that really works, but I dig it! Not even the original got in this category.
Preliminary prediction: Frankenstein
BEST SOUND
F1: The Movie
Frankenstein
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Sirat
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I had Frankenstein out in favor of Avatar. These nominations are all over the map. I am happy to see Sirat get its fully justified Sound Design nomination! This is always an underrated category that shows the true contenders and their appeal in categories that they might not need to show up in. Top Gun: Maverick won here, so I have to go back to that team for the win again…
Preliminary prediction: F1: The Movie
BEST FILM EDITING
F1: The Movie
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Sentimental Value
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I had Frankenstein in for Sentimental Value. This was the nail in the coffin for Hamnet. Is Sentimental Value a stealth contender for Best Picture? It really didn’t need this nomination. That fascinates me. If that takes BAFTA, then we might have a real race. It is just so strange that it got no SAG nominations and missed at PGA, though.
Preliminary prediction: One Battle After Another
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1: The Movie
Jurassic World: Rebirth
The Lost Bus
Sinners
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: Wow, Jurassic World makes an appearance! I had that and F1 out for Frankenstein and Superman. This is a good mix of CGI and more subtle effects. It isn’t all explosions and action. This has always belonged to Avatar, but I like the shoutout for The Lost Bus. That movie never got a fair shake this season.
Preliminary prediction: Avatar: Fire and Ash
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Frankenstein
Kokuho
Sinners
The Smashing Machine
The Ugly Stepsister
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: UGH…I was so tempted to go with The Ugly Stepsister too! That is a cool nomination. The Substance really blasted the door wide open for body horror, it appears. I had that missing for Wicked. I am glad I was wrong there.
Preliminary prediction: Frankenstein
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Dear Me” - Diane Warren: Relentless
“Golden” - KPop Demon Hunters
“I Lied to You” - Sinners
“Sweet Dreams of Joy” - Viva Verdi
“Train Dreams” - Train Dreams
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: Leave it to the music branch to bring in a movie no one has ever heard of. I had Viva Verdi (19 votes on IMDb, never released in the US) and Train Dreams out in favor of Wicked and F1. It is hard to take too much issue with this category. The branch will not let go of Diane Warren. Then we have a couple absolute bangers from KPop and Sinners. Cool!
Preliminary prediction: KPop Demon Hunters
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Sinners
One Battle After Another
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: BOO! Sirat should have gotten in here over Bugonia. This category kinda sucks. I hate how some years they just give extra nominations to their favorite films here, when Original Score is one of the few categories that is meant to highlight a different part of the craft of making the movie. I don’t remember most of these, and I personally nominate none of them.
Preliminary prediction: Sinners
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
The Alabama Solution
Come See Me in the Good Light
Cutting Through Rocks
Mr. Nobody Against Putin
The Perfect Neighbor
Predicted: 1 for 5
Reactions: Here is where the wheels came off my predictions. I had everything missing but The Perfect Neighbor in favor of 2000 Meters to Andriivka, Cover-Up, Seeds, and Apocalypse in the Tropics. I don’t know what to say here. There are some new types of docs that do not usually get Oscar nominations in this group. It appears we have a major frontrunner, since it is so popular and an archival footage doc, which is usually shunned by this branch.
Preliminary prediction: The Perfect Neighbor
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
The Secret Agent
It Was Just an Accident
Sentimental Value
Sirat
The Voice of Hind Rajab
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: Against my better judgment, I still had No Other Choice taking that last spot from Hind Rajab. This was pretty much locked up otherwise. It is rare that we have such major contenders in other categories from the international film market. This is a tough race between Brazil and the one that got six above-the-line nominations.
Preliminary prediction: Sentimental Value
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Arco
KPop Demon Hunters
Little Amelie or the Character of Rain
Zootopia 2
Elio
Predicted: 5 for 5
Reactions: At least I didn’t screw this one up.
Preliminary prediction: KPop Demon Hunters
Overall predictions: 82/110; 74.55% (77.14% in 2025)
Without the last 5 categories: 65/85; 76.47% (80.00% in 2025)
On the Big 8 categories: 36/45; 80.00% (84.44% in 2025)
So I took a slight step back from last year. I can’t complain too much since I actually took a few serious stabs in the major categories (and hit one!), plus we don't have nearly as much info to go on at this stage. I will be better next year!
10 COOLEST FIRST-TIME NOMINEES
1. Stellen Skarsgard
2. Michael B. Jordan
3. Elle Fanning
4. Josh Safdie
5. Jafar Panahi
6. Jacob Elordi
7. Rose Byrne
8. Renate Reinsve
9. Teyana Taylor
10. Nick Cave
Others: Tig Notaro, Wunmi Mosaku, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Wagner Moura, Ronald Bronstein, the Casting Directors, all the KPop songwriters, and Brazil
10 WORST SNUBS
1. Amanda Seyfried for Best Actress
2. Paul Mescal for Best Supporting Actor
3. Warfare for Best Sound and Best Editing
4. No Other Choice in all categories, especially Best Editing and Best Adapted Screenplay
5. The Alto Knights for Best Makeup
6. Hedda for Best Costume Design
7. Eva Victor for Best Actress and Best Original Screenplay
8. Adam Sandler for Best Supporting Actor
9. Sirat for Best Original Score
10. Weapons for Best Picture
IF THERE WERE 5 NOMINEES…
1. Sinners
2. One Battle After Another
3. Sentimental Value
4. Marty Supreme
5. Hamnet
That's about it! Nothing too crazy this year. They just really loved a handful of movies and took away the bones they usually throw to other films. The ridiculous stacking of acting and below-the-line nominations for the few frontrunners is mind-boggling. Either way, it was a fun race! The Oscars are on March 15th…Selection Sunday once again! We will be live after the show on the podcast with the comments open on Facebook, YouTube, etc. See you there!
Also, stay tuned for our 18th Annual Oscar Challenge!
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