It’s December, which can only mean
one thing: The NFL playoffs are looming. Beginning this week, each Tuesday I
will be looking at the playoff picture with my projected playoff seedings. This is entertaining because it’s fun to
write and even more fun to look back at it one year from now and laugh at how
horribly wrong I was (especially when I was reluctant to correctly pick the
Patriots to win the Super Bowl).
AFC Playoffs
1.
Denver Broncos (10-2; projected 13-3): They’re still the team to beat, even
though they rank 4th worst in football in giveaways (25). Sunday’s game in Kansas City was the 6th
time this season the Broncos have had a negative turnover ratio in a game. Denver’s defenders will point to the fact
that they are nevertheless 4-2 in these games, and haven’t scored under 27
points in a game all season. Some
observers have speculated that the Chiefs never really had a chance on Sunday
because they cannot score more than 30 points in a game; but this reminds me of
the faulty logic in 2007 that said the only way to beat the Patriots would have
been to score 40 or 50 points. I think
there’s a defense out there can stop them.
And like the 2007 Giants, it could be in one of these scrappy,
under-the-radar teams with an erratic quarterback (hello, Cincinnati Bengals?)
2.
New England Patriots (9-3; projected 12-4): Sunday’s win against the 2-10
Texans was a decidedly mixed bag.
Houston went into the game much better than their record (having lost
their last five games by a combined 19 points) and New England fans knew the
potential for a trap game. The Pats
persevered, but in the process made Ben Tate look like Jim Brown, Case Keenum
look like . . . a better Matt Schaub, and reminded New England fans everywhere
that Kyle Arrington simply cannot defend in the secondary. The Pats rush defense now ranks 2nd
worst in football. Fortunately, the
Patriots get Cleveland at home next week and have a good shot at clinching the
AFC East for the 5th straight season.
3.
Cincinnati Bengals (8-4; projected 11-5): Guess who joined Peyton Manning as
the only quarterbacks to begin their careers with three straight 3,000 yard
seasons? If you guessed Andy Dalton, pat
yourself on the back. Quietly, the
Bengals are looking pretty good right now.
They haven’t lost a regulation game since September, and are undefeated
at home (three of their final four games are in Cincinnati). The Chargers aren’t exactly a superpower, but
beating them in San Diego while grinding out 164 yards on the ground was a
great sign moving forward. Next week’s
home matchup vs. Indianapolis will be a good indicator which team clinches the
3 seed.
4.
Indianapolis Colts (8-4; projected 10-6): So I guess we’ve learned that this
team can play reasonably well so long as it doesn’t involve any bottomfeeders
from the NFC West. Sunday’s big win over
Tennessee gives them a comfortable three-game lead in the AFC South (and season
sweep of the Titans). In his last four
games, Andrew Luck has a QB rating of 66.9 . . . but on the positive side, he’s
has an almost identical rushing total to Trent Richardson (one has a 6.3 yards
per carry average, the other has a 2.8.
You can guess which one is which).
The Colts haven’t won consecutive games since Week 5, so a victory in
Cincinnati next Sunday would go a long way in reminding fans that they are
still the team that once beat the 49ers, Seahawks, and Broncos.
5.
Kansas City Chiefs (9-3; projected 11-5): Believe it or not, the Chiefs haven’t
won a game in 30 days. At this point,
their most impressive win was Week 2 against Dallas when they won by a
point. Sunday’s game was frustrating,
not only because Kansas City blew a 21-7 lead at home, but because they
actually looked pretty good for stretches of the game. Their nine wins aren’t a fluke, as some have
suggested; the problem is that the Justin Houston injury has wreaked havoc on a
once-elite defense, which has given up over 427 yards in each of its last four
games. It seems unlikely that the Chiefs
will finish 0-7 after their 9-0 start, but it’s not impossible either, with
three out of the next four games on the road.
In all likelihood, the Chiefs are little more than a desirable Wild Card
round consolation prize to the winner of next week’s Indy-Cincinnati game
6.
Baltimore Ravens (6-6; projected 8-8): Baltimore and Miami have the inside
track for the AFC’s six seed, but you have to give the temporary nod to the
Ravens as a result of their victory over the Dolphins in Week 5 (the Ravens’
only road win all season). Yes, they
have six losses, but none have been by more than six points. They looked good against the Steelers on
Thanksgiving, but have the Lions, Patriots, and Bengals in upcoming games. Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce need to get
healthy quickly; they average a combined 2.8 yards per carry, and the Ravens as
a team have the NFL’s 2nd worst rushing attack. But with a healthy Jacoby Jones (and no coach on thesideline
to thwart kickoff returns), this team feels a little scary once again.
In Contention
Miami
Dolphins (6-6; projected 8-8): Not sure if they have enough talent to win a
playoff game, but wins over the Colts and Bengals could be a fascinating
wrinkle come January (Ryan Tannehill has a higher QB rating than Andrew Luck
and Joe Flacco). A slightly scary
statistic: Miami is 5-1 in games where its opponent scored 20 points or
fewer. But don’t the Dolphins seem to do
this a lot? A good start to the season
and then a collapse down the stretch?
Wins in upcoming weeks against the Steelers and Patriots would be huge.
San
Diego Chargers (5-7; projected 7-9): They get the Giants and Raiders at home .
. . but also the Broncos in Denver and the Chiefs in Week 17. They play competitively in most games and can
move the ball down the field, but can’t really stop other teams and are
terrible in the red zone. A 2-2 split
seems destined.
Pittsburgh
Steelers (5-7; projected 7-9): The Stealers certainly out of contention yet,
with three upcoming home games and a road trip in Green
Bay. Technically, they’ve still won
three of their last four, but the Ravens loss made them fall from serious
contention. Still, the passing game has
been fine, but the AFC
playoff picture may be too deep to keep them from watching from the sideline
in January, no matter how hard they try to push forward.
New
York Jets (5-7; projected 2-14): No.
Buffalo
Bills (4-8; projected 6-10: Prior to the loss to Atlanta in Toronto, the Bills’
remaining schedule was intriguing: Three games versus the porous Florida teams,
and a possibly meaningless Week 17 game in Foxboro. But then they lost to a team which hadn’t won
a road game since December 22, 2012.
Whoops.
Playoff Predictions:
Baltimore 24, Cincinnati 17
Indianapolis 19, Kansas City 13
New England 35, Indianapolis 21
Denver 27, Baltimore 13
New England 31, Denver 28 (OT)
NFC Playoffs
1.
Seattle Seahawks (11-1; projected 14-2): The 27-point demolishing of the Saints
was just what the doctor ordered for Seattle, who may have still had skeptics
after the Rams and Buccaneers games. The
only real test for the remainder of the regular season is next week in San
Francisco, but with their three-game division lead and their Week 2 26-point
home win over the 49ers, the game really doesn’t matter that much. They travel to the Meadowlands in Week 15,
where they can get acquainted with the field conditions as they prepare for a
hopeful return trip in February.
2.
Carolina Panthers (9-3; projected 12-4): The Panthers haven’t lost since
October 6, and haven’t lost at home since Week 1. They travel to New Orleans next week, but
even if they lose, the remainder of their schedule is more favorable than the
Saints’. Cam Newton has 181 rushing
yards in his last three games (on only 19 attempts) and Mike Tolbert and
Jonathan Stewart are picking up the pieces until DeAngelo Williams returns from
his quadriceps injury. On the defensive
side, they haven’t allowed a 100-yard rusher in 10 games, lead the league in
fewest points allowed, and lead the NFC in sacks. This is an outstanding team. The Seahawks can’t punch their Super Bowl
tickets quite yet.
3.
Philadelphia Eagles (7-5; projected 10-6): 19 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, and one
7 touchdown game. Nick Foles is doing
his best Peyton Manning imitation (he actually has a better QB rating than him)
and the Eagles were 4-0 in November after his return. But for all the attention Foles is deservedly
receiving, the running game has stepped up too, now ranking 2nd in
the league in total rushing yards. They will
have the inside track on the NFC’s 3 seed should they beat the Lions in
Philadelphia this weekend, and the Week 17 rematch with the Cowboys looms
large. Remember that they are 5-1 on the
road, too. People are talking about
them, yes, but the talk needs to be more serious.
4.
Detroit Lions (7-5; projected 9-7): The Lions beat up Matt Flynn and a depleted
Packers team on Thanksgiving, but still had four turnovers, most of them
stupid. In fact, Detroit became the
first team in 12 years to win a game by 30+ points with four turnovers. They
now have 12 turnovers in their last three games. It’s obvious they have talent, but it’s their
season sweep over the Bears (combined with Aaron Rodgers’ injury) that still
somehow make them favorites to win the NFC North. Detroit is 6-0 when they rush for over 110
yards, but doing that on the road in Seattle or Carolina seems unlikely. Still, I can’t think of any secondary that
would savor a matchup with Calvin Johnson.
5.
New Orleans Saints (9-3; projected 11-5): Remember when the Saints demolished
the Cowboys and had 40 first downs? It
now seems like a long time ago. When New
Orleans won the Super Bowl, they did it with a combination of an excellent
running game by committee and the ability to create a ton of turnovers. They haven’t done either lately, and have
only forced two takeaways in their last five games. It’s clear they are incapable of resolving
their road woes, and although they have two more home games, their two
remaining away games are against the formidable Panthers and Rams. Carolina is a team built to stop the Saints,
so these final few weeks will tell us a lot.
6.
San Francisco 49ers (8-4; projected 11-5): An NFC West three-peat may be out of
the cards for the 49ers at this point, but a Wild Card trip to Dallas or
Philadelphia doesn’t really scare this team.
Colin Kaepernick hasn’t looked more comfortable in the pocket all season
than in the 49ers’ last two games, and Michael Crabtree’s return adds a level
of explosiveness they’ve lacked most of the year (they’re still in the NFL’s
bottom five in total offense). This team
is confident and getting hot at the right time – expect a dogfight this week
against the Seahawks. In the past eight
seasons, two 6 seeds were able to run the tables on the road and win the Super
Bowl. Just sayin’.
In Contention
Dallas
Cowboys (7-5; projected 9-7): The worst two words in a Cowboy fan’s lexion are “Happy
December.” The defense is still
atrocious statistically, but Dallas was able to annihilate Oakland’s formidable
running game on Thanksgiving. They also
looked impressive in overcoming an early 14-point deficit. We all know the familiar story – they’ll look
great one week, and terrible the next.
But if I hate the prospect of the Seahawks reaching the Super Bowl
(which I do), this would be one of the two or three NFC teams I’d pick to give
them a tough fight at Qwest Field. The
remainder of the battle is uphill, but it’s hard to count them out at this
point with a 4-0 NFC East record.
Arizona
Cardinals (7-5; projected 9-7): If the Cardinals were in the NFC, they would be
in a superb position to clinch a playoff berth; but in the stacked NFC, even a
winning record leaves them on the outside looking in. The Cardinals are 0-4 when they allow 100 or
more yards on the ground, so upcoming matchups with the Seahawks, Rams and
49ers are not exactly ideal. Without a
healthy Andre Ellington, Arizona’s playoff chances go from about 2 percent to 0
percent.
Chicago
Bears (6-6; projected 7-9): Josh McCown has been impressive to this point (9
TDs, 1 Int) and Alshon Jeffery has been surreal, but the defense has been
terrible, and with tough upcoming matchups with Dallas and Philadelphia on the
horizon, the Bears’ chances seem slim.
The return of Jay Cutler does not exactly inspire hope.
Playoff Predictions:
San Francisco 20, Philadelphia 16
Detroit 42, New Orleans 39
Seattle 27, San Francisco 10
Carolina 24, Detroit 9
Seattle 29, Carolina 20
SUPER BOWL XLVIII PREDICTION:
New England 33, Seattle 30
Thoughts? Disagreements? Do you agree with me that the Seahawks will stumble
at some point like they always do? Write
below!
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