2016 Golden Globes Preview and Predictions

The Golden Globes might not be the most prestigious of awards, but they are an entertaining circuit and a good early indicator of what Hollywood is really into during awards season. The nominations come out in a couple weeks, so without further ado, here are my annual (slightly sarcastic) predictions for the Hollywood Foreign Press Association’s 73^rd Annual Golden Globe Awards…

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SERIES, MINISERIES, OR TV MOVIE

1. Uzo Aduba – Orange is the New Black

2. Jean Smart – Fargo

3. Catherine Keener – Show Me a Hero

4. Lena Heady – Game of Thrones

5. Regina King – American Crime

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES, MINISERIES, OR TV MOVIE

1. Hugh Laurie – Veep

2. Christian Slater – Mr. Robot

3. Peter Dinklage – Game of Thrones

4. Damian Lewis – Wolf Hall

5. Jonathan Banks – Better Call Saul

BEST ACTRESS IN A MINISERIES OR TV MOVIE

1. Angela Lansbury – Driving Miss Daisy

2. Queen Latifah – Bessie

3. Rachel McAdams – True Detective

4. Nicole Kidman – Grace of Monaco

5. Lady Gaga – American Horror Story: Hotel

BEST ACTOR IN A MINISERIES OR TV MOVIE

1. Oscar Isaac – Show Me a Hero

2. James Earl Jones – Driving Miss Daisy

3. Colin Farrell – True Detective

4. David Oyelowo – Nightingale

5. Patrick Wilson – Fargo

BEST MINISERIES OR TELEVISION MOVIE

1. Fargo

2. Show Me a Hero

3. Bessie

4. American Crime

5. Wolf Hall

BEST ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SERIES – COMEDY/MUSICAL

1. Ellie Kemper – Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt

2. Julia Louis-Dreyfus – Veep

3. Jane Fonda – Grace and Frankie

4. Lily Tomlin – Grace and Frankie

5. Gina Rodriguez – Jane the Virgin

BEST ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES – COMEDY/MUSICAL

1. Jeffrey Tambor – Transparent

2. Rob Lowe – The Grinder

3. Anthony Anderson – Black-ish

4. Patrick Stewart – Blunt Talk

5. Matthew Perry – The Odd Couple

BEST TELEVISION SERIES – COMEDY/MUSICAL

1. Transparent

2. Veep

3. Orange is the New Black

4. Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt

5. The Muppets

BEST ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA

1. Taraji P. Henson – Empire

2. Viola Davis – How to Get Away with Murder

3. Tatiana Maslany – Orphan Black

4. Claire Danes – Homeland

5. Melissa Benoist – Supergirl

BEST ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA

1. Jon Hamm – Mad Men

2. Rami Malek – Mr. Robot

3. Sam Heughan – Outlander

4. Kevin Spacey – House of Cards

5. Terrance Howard – Empire

BEST TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA

1. Game of Thrones

2. Outlander

3. Mr. Robot

4. Empire

5. House of Cards

---Note: I have not seen even half of the TV predictions. A lot of it is Golden Globe trends and shots in the dark. As a rule in TV and movies, the HFPA loves big names and foreign productions.

BEST ANIMATED FILM

1. Inside Out

2. Anomalisa

3. The Good Dinosaur

4. When Marnie Was There

5. The Peanuts Movie

Explanation: Pixar is hard to beat in an ordinary year, but they have two films, so it might be even easier for one of their best films ever Inside Out. The Charlie Kaufman-scripted Anomalisa is making waves, but that might be more of a Critics Choice winner than a Golden Globe winner.

BEST FOREIGN FILM

1. Son of Saul (Hungary)

2. Mustang (France)

3. Labyrinth of Lies (Germany)

4. Goodnight Mommy (Austria)

5. The Clan (Argentina)

Explanation: There isn’t a whole lot of commentary on this one. Son of Saul has established itself as a Best Picture contender, so its status here is somewhat obvious. The Globes like to shake things up, so a horror film and a film about a family of serial killers seem like solid contenders.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. “One Kind of Love” – Love and Mercy

2. “Love Me Like You Do” – 50 Shades of Grey

3. “Til It Happens To You” – The Hunting Ground

4. “See You Again” – Furious 7

5. “So Long” – Concussion

Explanation: Giving Lady Gaga a double nomination, as well giving invites to Brian Wilson, Wiz Khalifa, and Elle Goulding seems like a HFPA thing to do.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Bridge of Spies – Thomas Newman

2. Inside Out – Michael Giacchino

3. Carol – Carter Burwell

4. Star Wars: The Force Awakens – John Williams

5. The Hateful Eight – Ennio Morricone

Explanation: The Globes love Spielberg and John Williams, of course. It would be a cool inclusion if Morricone got in. I really do not know what to expect here. I haven’t heard enough of the scores to make precise predictions. This is definitely just me projecting and hoping.

BEST SCREENPLAY – MOTION PICTURE

1. Spotlight – Thomas McCarthy, Josh Singer

2. Joy – David O. Russell, Annie Mumolo

3. The Hateful Eight – Quentin Tarantino

4. Steve Jobs – Aaron Sorkin

5. The Martian – Drew Goddard

Explanation: These are the highest profile Golden Globes movies this year, and a few of the biggest names in screenwriting. I almost included Brooklyn and/or Carol here, but these seem like as safe of bets as possible for this awards organization. I love that they only have one category. It makes getting nominated even more prestigious, and at times (It’s Complicated, for example) even more strange.

BEST DIRECTOR – MOTION PICTURE

1. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu – The Revenant

2. Ridley Scott – The Martian

3. Steven Spielberg – Bridge of Spies

4. David O. Russell – Joy

5. Quentin Tarantino – The Hateful Eight

Explanation: The Globes didn’t award Inarritu last year, so they will take it upon themselves to do that this time. The others are just the powerhouse names and movies that would be typical here. Thomas McCarthy should probably be included, but he isn’t quite a household name just yet.

The HFPA Dream Lineup:

JJ Abrams – Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Woody Allen – Irrational Man

Angelina Jolie – By the Sea

Steven Spielberg – Bridge of Spies

Quentin Tarantino – The Hateful Eight

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE

1. Jane Fonda – Youth

2. Elizabeth Banks – Love and Mercy

3. Jennifer Jason Leigh – The Hateful Eight

4. Ellen Page – Freeheld

5. Diane Ladd – Joy

Explanation: Love and Mercy is the closest thing to a musical we have this year, so that will gobble up a few nominations, I suspect. Fonda and Ladd are reflections of the HFPA’s love for older Hollywood actors. This year is unusually stacked for supporting actresses.

The HFPA Dream Lineup:

Maggie Smith – The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Kristen Stewart – Clouds of Sils Maria

Meryl Streep – Suffragette

Alicia Vikander – Ex Machina

Kate Winslet – Steve Jobs

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE

1. Michael Keaton – Spotlight

2. Sylvester Stallone – Creed

3. Idris Elba – Beasts of No Nation

4. Benicio Del Toro – Sicario

5. Jason Mitchell – Straight Outta Compton

Explanation: This is definitely the category where the HFPA just does whatever they want. The Globes are ok with Netflix, so this will be the start of Elba’s quest for an Oscar nod. Straight Outta Compton is sort of a musical, which will likely garner noms from this group. The HFPA just loves stars. Nominating Stallone here would be like when Michael Douglas got in for Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps.

The HFPA Dream Lineup:

Bradley Cooper – Joy

Robert De Niro – Joy

Harrison Ford – Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Brad Pitt – The Big Short

Seth Rogen – Steve Jobs

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE – COMEDY/MUSICAL

1. Jennifer Lawrence – Joy

2. Meryl Streep – Ricki and the Flash

3. Sandra Bullock – Our Brand Is Crisis

4. Lily Tomlin – Grandma

5. Amy Schumer – Trainwreck

Explanation: There really are only like 7 contenders for this category, but these are pretty safe picks. The top 3 are as big of locks as any potential nominees in any category.

The HFPA Dream Lineup:

Sandra Bullock – Our Brand Is Crisis

Tina Fey – Sisters

Melissa McCarthy – Spy

Meryl Streep – Ricki and the Flash

Rebel Wilson – Pitch Perfect 2

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE – COMEDY/MUSICAL

1. Matt Damon – The Martian

2. Bradley Cooper – Burnt

3. Joaquin Phoenix – Irrational Man

4. Steve Carell – The Big Short

5. Shameik Moore - Dope

Explanation: It would be an upset if Moore gets in, but he is such a natural and really did give one of the best performances of the year. Remember when Damon was the slam dunk winner in this category for The Informant! but then ended up dropping to Robert Downey Jr. for Sherlock Holmes? I can see something similar happening here, even though Damon is far and away the class of this category.

The HFPA Dream Lineup:

Bradley Cooper – Burnt

Robert De Niro – The Intern

Bill Murray – Rock the Kasbah

Al Pacino – Danny Collins

Paul Rudd – Any-Man

BEST MOTION PICTURE – COMEDY/MUSICAL

1. The Martian

2. The Big Short

3. Joy

4. Irrational Man

5. Spy

Explanation: The HFPA loves Woody Allen, even his lesser features. The Martian’s inclusion in this category is a bit of a copout because there is no way it loses, unless they just want to shamelessly award as Hollywood of a picture as there is in The Big Short.

The HFPA Dream Lineup:

The Big Short

Irrational Man

The Martian

Pitch Perfect 2

Ricki and the Flash

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA

1. Cate Blanchett – Carol

2. Alicia Vikander – The Danish Girl

3. Rooney Mara – Carol

4. Marion Cotillard – Macbeth

5. Charlotte Rampling – 45 Years

Explanation: This is an interesting category because Vikander and Mara are almost certainly being campaigned as supporting, but the Golden Globes don’t care. They put you where they want to put you. They love international actors in this category, so Vikander and Cotillard should coast to nominations. Rampling would be a bit of a surprise, but that is not out of the realm of possibility in this category. Sometimes this category is predetermined with the Dames, Meryl, and the K(C)ates, but this year is a bit more wide open.

The HFPA Dream Lineup:

Angelina Jolie – By the Sea

Nicole Kidman – Secret in Their Eyes

Helen Mirren – Woman in Gold

Julia Roberts – Secret in Their Eyes

Charlize Theron – Mad Max: Fury Road

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA

1. Leonardo DiCaprio – The Revenant

2. Eddie Redmayne – The Danish Girl

3. Johnny Depp – Black Mass

4. Tom Hanks – Bridge of Spies

5. Will Smith – Concussion

Explanation: Oh, the Globes have got to love the star power in this category! I can’t really come up with anything else. These are all virtual locks.

The HFPA Dream Lineup:

Bryan Cranston – Trumbo

Johnny Depp – Black Mass

Leonardo DiCaprio – The Revenant

Tom Hanks – Bridge of Spies

Will Smith – Concussion

BEST MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA

1. The Revenant

2. Spotlight

3. The Hateful Eight

4. Bridge of Spies

5. Carol

Explanation: This was a little difficult. The Globes and the Oscars don’t really match up all that much in their Best Picture categories. I just suspect that The Revenant will be big with this organization, but not necessarily the Oscars and beyond. They gave everything to Linklater last year, so Inarritu will get his this year. The others are just typical GG movies. Tarantino, Spielberg, and one artsy film sprinkled in.

The HFPA Dream Lineup:

By the Sea

In the Heart of the Sea

Mad Max: Fury Road

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Straight Outta Compton

That’s it! What did you think of my predictions? Stay tuned in the coming weeks for my next Oscar predictions and updates on the Critics Circles after the National Board of Review Awards kick off the season!