#26
The Kansas City Royals looked to hit the reset button on their franchise after a good run of strong success with a core of veteran, homegrown players. Are they in full rebuild mode, or will they still find a way to compete in 2018?
2017 Predictions
2nd in AL Central
Lorenzo Cain and Mike Moustakas will be traded mid-season.
2017 Result
80-82, 3rd in AL Central
I had predicted about right for where the Royals would end up last year. They probably exceeded their own expectations, which is why they weren't looking to sell like I thought they would at the Trade Deadline. Instead, they chose to stay loyal to their core four players that, most likely, would not remain loyal to them once free agency commenced.
Additions / Subtractions
Yes, they lost some important pieces. Eric Hosmer is now a Padre, Lorenzo Cain is now a Brewer, and Jason Vargas is now a Met. However, they story of the Royals' offseason is how they ended up maintaining more than everyone thought. Early on, they inked Alcides Escobar to remain their shortstop, and in the last day or two, Mike Moustakas re-signed after all other options were unavailable. There were a couple smaller signings (John Jay, Lucas Duda), but the story really was how they were able to keep half of their stars that hit free agency.
Most Important Hitter
Whit Merrifield
Although all the focus last season was on the group of pending free agents, Whit Merrfield quietly had a very productive season. Even though guys like Moustakas, Escobar, Salvador Perez, and Alex Gordon are still on the roster, Merrifield might represent the future of the Royals (or he might be their most valuable trading piece). Either way, the Royals will be much better off this season if Merrifield is able to duplicate his production from 2017.
Most Important Pitcher
Kelvin Herrera
Kelvin Herrera was the forgotten man in the Royals' legendary bullpen during their World Series runs. Now he is the only one left. Last year was his first opportunity as closer for Kansas City, and he had difficulty repeating his dominance as a setup man. After posting an ERA+ of 280, 155, and 157 in 2014-2016, it dropped to 106 in 2017 which is just barely above the league average of 100. The Royals pride themselves in their bullpen, and Herrera needs to show he can anchor it.
Prospect to Watch
Hunter Dozier
The Royals are in a bad position to try and rebuild as their farm system is not very strong. They do not have a single prospect ranked in the league's top 100, with most of their best prospects at least 2 or 3 years away. The one that should have an impact this season is Hunter Dozier. A corner infielder / corner outfielder, Dozier has a shot of making the Opening Day roster. He might even start Opening Day with the recent 80 game PED suspension of Jorge Bonifacio.
2018 Prediction
4th in AL Central
The days of Kansas City's relevance appear to be over. They may have been able to keep two of their four free agent stars, but they kept the lesser two of the four and only for one more year. Their starting rotation is weak, their bullpen has issues, and their lineup might still have some names but it lacks the production of their best years. I like rooting for the Royals, and I hope we don't have to wait another 30 years before they are relevant again.
Fearless Prediction
Mike Moustakas will be traded mid-season.
I may be repeating my prediction from last year, but I think it is even more likely to happen this year. He only re-signed with the Royals because no other option was available. He wants to be on a competitor, and the Royals are not going to be that. They signed him for one year obviously to leave open the opportunity to turn him into prospects mid-season if the season goes south. He will be moved if the Royals know what they are doing.
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