BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Predicted Five
1. Jojo Rabbit – Taika Waititi – LOCK. In
this era of voting structure and major contenders cancelling each other out,
this quirky feel good Holocaust comedy is going to come in and start stealing
awards.
2. The Irishman – Steven Zaillian – LOCK.
It is certainly the most accomplished work and screenwriter in the group. His movie
is one of the top contenders in nearly every category. The movie is not
unanimously loved, but it is the odds-on favorite for this prize.
3. Little Women – Greta Gerwig – LOCK. The
movie absolutely should get nominated here. It is a creative, beautiful, and
lively adaptation of well-worn Hollywood territory.
4. The Two Popes – Anthony McCarten – The
movie is all dialogue, which is always welcome in the screenplay categories. If
it was in the original category, it would have a real chance at winning.
5. Dark Waters – Mario Correa, Matthew
Michael Carnahan – The movie hasn’t really been seen by audiences, so it is
still under-the-radar. The writers aren’t the most prestigious, but Todd Haynes
wouldn’t take on the project if it wasn’t something different than it looks on
paper. It is a filler nomination and basically a bet fading the other “contenders”.
Others in contention
6. Joker – Scott Silver, Todd Phillips –
If this somehow gets into screenplay, we are looking at a real contender for
Best Picture. The Golden Globes already kept its forward momentum going, but
this would take it to a new level.
7. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood –
Micah Fitzerman-Blue, Noah Harpster – The storytelling traits of the film
are creative, but the movie ends up being too sappy. It could still be a
contender in a couple other categories, but this is an uphill climb.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Predicted Five
1. Marriage Story – Noah Baumbach – LOCK.
It is definitely the frontrunner, but those don’t always win. This might be the
most competitive category in the whole awards season.
2. Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood –
Quentin Tarantino – LOCK. Tarantino got snubbed for his last film despite a
Golden Globes nomination in the combined category. This film is way easier to
digest and way more Oscar-type stuff than The
Hateful Eight was.
3. Parasite – Joon-ho Bong, Jin Won Han –
LOCK. The movie is the most inventive of the year, and a lot of the winners in this
category are the “most original screenplay” of the year. If Parasite is winning Best Picture, it
will almost certainly be rewarded here as well.
4. Bombshell – Charles Randolph – LOCK.
The movie looks to be a stronger contender than we originally thought. The SAG
love is huge for the ensemble drama. Screenplay should be an easy pickup for Bombshell’s awards package.
5. The Farewell – Lulu Wang – This is
where it gets interesting. All year, especially upon release, this felt like an
indie darling that could translate over the Oscars in all categories. All of
them seem to be falling short, with the exception of its love at the Globes. I
will go with this here, sorta as this year’s The Big Sick.
Others in contention
6. 1917 – Sam Mendes, Krysty Wilson-Cairns –
War films are always a tough sell for their screenplays, but one that is kinda
real-time and one-take could take it over the also-ran line.
7. Us – Jordan Peele – The movie is one
of the top grossing of the year and still a major contender in a few other
categories. It is still being talked about 11 months after release, which is
impressive and cannot be overstated.
8. Uncut Gems – Josh Safdie, Benny Safdie,
Ronald Bronstein – Sometimes a movie is just too good to ignore in the
screenplay category that even though the other televised awards ignored it that
it still gets in for the Oscar. Margin
Call comes to mind. The Messenger
also fits the bill.
9. Knives Out – Rian Johnson – The movie
is such a smash hit with truly flashy writing with its whodunit style. Johnson
tragically missed out for Looper;
this might be his ticket for something much more the Academy’s speed.
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. Laura Dern – Marriage Story – LOCK. She is the
frontrunner at this point, but we haven’t seen any speeches yet. There is
always one anointed frontrunner who just starts losing the important ones out
of nowhere. Her nomination is guaranteed, but we’ll see about her frontrunner status.
2. Nicole Kidman – Bombshell – LOCK. She is always nominated,
and this is going to be another underwhelming notch in her resume when we look
back on it. She does attach herself to some pretty baity projects, though.
3. Margot Robbie – Bombshell – LOCK. She is both the
most interesting and least believable member of that cast. She does so much in
that role, though, plus she has another performance that is a major contender.
4. Jennifer Lopez – Hustlers – A Golden Globes win would
certainly help her cause, but there is a feeling that she could get a crazy
snub here. Everyone loves her and she is doing the campaigning, but the movie
is just sorta there…
5. Florence Pugh – Little Women – I have no confidence
in this pick, but she was absolutely the highlight of the cast. She has had as
good of a 2019 as anyone not named Adam Driver, and this would be the easiest
way to recognize that.
Others in contention
6. Kathy Bates – Richard Jewell – Her SAG category
misplacement is inexcusable, but her performance is so emotional and pivotal to
that film that a comeback nomination here seems appropriate.
7. Scarlett Johansson
– Jojo Rabbit – The SAG nom
reinforces the love for the film. She has never been nominated, but is she
ready for a double nom Jamie Foxx-style? I’m not so sure.
8. Margot Robbie – Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood –
Her performance here is so natural and criticized indirectly that I cannot help
but see a conspiracy theory-kinda nomination shocker here instead of Bombshell.
9. Zhao Shuzhen – The Farewell – She has missed all of
the important awards, but if her movie really is loved, she can still get that Jacki
Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook) last
second nomination.
Tommy Lee
Jones – In the Valley of Elah Shocker
Nomination: Octavia Spencer – Luce
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood – LOCK.
His performance has been anointed since the movie came out, and it has no signs
of slowing up.
2. Joe Pesci – The Irishman – LOCK. His comeback
role is the most impressive thing I saw all year. He already has a win, though,
so a second trophy here is unlikely.
3. Al Pacino – The Irishman – LOCK. It has been 17
years since his last nomination/win. A return to the ceremony is welcomed.
4. Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood –
LOCK. He has had a few snubs in a row, but this one just fit so perfectly in
his range that it will be impossible to not nominate.
5. Kang-ho Song – Parasite – The foreign films are
always going to get snubbed for acting awards leading up to the awards, but the
Oscars won’t let that deter them from nominating Maria de Tavira in Roma or Javier Bardem in Biutiful.
Others in contention
6. Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes – He has gotten the
appropriate nominations outside of the SAG, which should have been the easiest
one. He steals the movie and is probably a better bet to get in, but there’s
always a surprise or two.
7. Jamie Foxx – Just Mercy – The movie just hasn’t
been widely seen just yet. The screener strategy will need to be strong for the
film, but I wouldn’t completely count him out. The SAG win kept Foxx alive for
now.
8. Willem Dafoe – The Lighthouse – It is the most
acting of the year, and he is beloved. He gets nominated for almost everything
nowadays, so keep an eye out for this bizarre nomination.
Tommy Lee
Jones – In the Valley of Elah Shocker
Nomination: Alan Alda – Marriage Story
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. Renee Zellweger – Judy – LOCK. She seems like a lock
for a win, but so did Natalie Portman in 2016 before she lost everything to an
actress who had never won before…
2. Scarlett Johansson
– Marriage Story – LOCK. It is
the showiest acting she has ever had, and she is heartbreaking. Her nomination
is secured, but can she start winning the televised awards? We’ll find out
really quick.
3. Cynthia Erivo – Harriet – LOCK. She has gotten
mentioned everywhere she needs to. A snub at this point would be unthinkable.
But so would a win.
4. Charlize Theron – Bombshell – She got the leading spot
over the other two actresses, which is a little unsettling. I think there is a
path to a snub since it is mostly makeup work, but she seems pretty safe.
5. Saoirse Ronan – Little Women – She is clearly the
center of attention in the film and does her thing, but how many nominations does
she need at such a young age? I could see them spreading the wealth and giving
her an unfortunate snub.
Others in contention
6. Lupita Nyong’o – Us – The SAG nom is nuts. She really
can get in for a horror film playing a doppelganger. I want this to happen so
much!
7. Alfre Woodard – Clemency – She has been overlooked
quite a bit and hasn’t been nominated in 36 years, but her movie hasn’t really
hit the big screen yet. These types of roles sometimes show up at the last minute.
Think Charlotte Rampling in 45 Years.
8. Awkwafina – The Farewell – She seems to just be
hanging on in the race. Her role isn’t overly showy, but it is definitely a
step out from what she has done in her career. I don’t know how anxious the
Academy is to recognize that, but her film is hovering around just below the
line in so many categories.
Tommy Lee
Jones – In the Valley of Elah Shocker
Nomination: Florence Pugh - Midsommar
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. Joaquin Phoenix – Joker – LOCK. He has never won
before, and this might be his most explosive performance ever. It is hard to
imagine a second Joker winning an Oscar, but the movie has the backing and the
storylines to go all the way.
2. Adam Driver – Marriage Story – LOCK. This is the
traditional 2010s Oscar winner for Best Actor, but he is up against a monster.
He has had such an amazing year, but looking at his slate for 2020, he should
be right back here 12 months from now.
3. Leonardo DiCaprio
– Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood –
LOCK. If he hadn’t won for his last movie, this would 100% be our winner. He is
so good in this movie that it almost isn’t fair.
4. Christian Bale – Ford v Ferarri – He can get
nominated for anything. The movie seems to be losing steam because it isn’t any
good, but it still has the overarching appeal toward old Oscar voters. I can’t
not predict him.
5. Taron Egerton – Rocketman – He wants the nomination
more than anyone I can remember. He is safely in my #5 spot, but he has some
legends behind him who can take it.
Others in contention
6. Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes – He is the only Glengarry Glen Ross member to never get
nominated, which is crazy considering his track record. The SAG miss was
unfortunate.
7. Antonio Banderas –
Pain and Glory – He is still
looking for his first nomination, and he is directed by the guy who arguably
gave him a career. SAG needed to recognize him, but they went with the
predicted 5 instead. I won’t be shocked if he slides in, but it will be a
little surprising.
8. Robert De Niro – The Irishman – He appeared to be a
lock, but then missing at the Globes and SAG was startling. I don’t know
exactly what happened, if they just thought the supporting players stole the
movie from him, but he will need to step it up in the next week if he’s going
to get his second nomination in the 2010s.
9. Adam Sandler – Uncut Gems – He is kinda in that
Ethan Hawke in First Reformed range.
He clearly gives one of the best performances of the year (or the best), but
the movie is not at all the Academy’s thing so they and the other major awards
shrugged it off for no reason.
10. Paul Walter
Hauser – Richard Jewell – He has
a complete transformation into the real life character. It is a breakthrough
role, those of which aren’t usually rewarded here, but Eastwood movies play by
a different set of rules.
11. Eddie Murphy – Dolemite Is My Name – A Golden
Globes win would be huge for his chances, but no one really seems to be talking
about the movie. I thought a SAG Ensemble nom was coming, but missing there
might have been the nail in the coffin.
Tommy Lee
Jones – In the Valley of Elah Shocker
Nomination: Michael B. Jordan – Just
Mercy
BEST DIRECTOR
The Predicted Five
1. Joon-ho Bong – Parasite – LOCK. This category
always goes to artsy movies under the current voting structure. 8 of the last 9
winners have not been Americans, so he has the inside track. Plus his movie is
amazing.
2. Martin Scorsese – The Irishman – LOCK. Everyone seems
to like the movie, and it is Scorsese through and through. The Oscars like to
reward directors doing things that fit their auteur style. The production was
also such a rough battle that they might want to commend him for that too.
3. Sam Mendes – 1917 – LOCK. It is a clear example
of flashy directing, and the Academy loves that stuff. A one-take movie? A
one-take war movie? Done.
4. Quentin Tarantino
– Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood –
I feel like he may be vulnerable, only because the movie came out so long ago.
It was the talk of the town for a solid two months, but it is rather quiet
right now. He has gotten all of the nominations he needs, but it could be
looked at as more of a screenwriting achievement than a directing achievement.
5. Noah Baumbach – Marriage Story – It is as showy of
directing as you can get for basically having a play on screen. He has never
been nominated here before, but his movie is so well-liked that I feel like he’s
getting in.
Others in contention
6. Taika Waititi – Jojo Rabbit – My gut is that he just
misses out, despite having a really strong placement in the overall awards ceremony.
We don’t have enough time for backlash to take out contenders, so he might be
stuck on the outside.
7. Greta Gerwig – Little Women – If they want a female
director to get in, it is absolutely Gerwig. Her directing is sumptuous and
better than her previous nominated work in Lady
Bird, but something just isn’t clicking with the awards and this film.
8. Todd Phillips – Joker – The Golden Globes nomination
says it all. If you’re talking about world-building in a film, he has as good
of a case than anyone. Seeing his name on nomination morning would still be
jarring.
9. Jay Roach – Bombshell – I think the film is a
stronger contender than most others do. This could be like Jason Reitman in Juno and get in without any real signs
pointing to it.
BEST PICTURE
The Predicted Ten (I predict 9 will get nominated)
1. Jojo Rabbit (Taika Waititi) – LOCK. The
Academy can’t get enough of the Holocaust. It is the kind of Green Book garbage that wins Best
Picture these days.
2. The Irishman (Martin Scorsese) – LOCK.
It is the biggest movie of the year, even though a lot of people can’t watch it
in one sitting. It would be as classical of a winner as we could see in 2019.
3. Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood (Quentin
Tarantino) – LOCK. The movie was once thought to be the frontrunner (was my
predicted back in January 2019), but the buzz has faded. It needs to start
cleaning up the televised precursor awards to take back over. It would be a
very inoffensive choice, which isn’t normally where Tarantino is at in the race.
4. Parasite (Joon-ho Bong) – LOCK. The SAG
Ensemble Cast nomination was huge. Only one foreign film had ever gotten
nominated there before (Life Is Beautiful),
which means the love for the film stretches far beyond typical foreign film
contenders. It really can win.
5. 1917 (Sam Mendes) – LOCK. This is an
easy predicted also-ran in the category. It will be nominated everywhere and
will appeal to a lot of voters.
6. Marriage Story (Noah Baumbach) –
LOCK. This is the talky drama in the group, which there always seems to be one.
It has been a long road here for Baumbach, whose depressing drama is somehow
his most appealing and uplifting. It is kinda the perfect Best Picture nominee.
7. Bombshell (Jay Roach) – The issue
with the movie is it isn’t very good. It fits the narrative for what Hollywood
wants to portray, but it had to be better than this. It could still be Vice and get nominated in all relevant
categories, but I can’t say it’s a lock.
8. Little Women (Greta Gerwig) –
Baumbach and Gerwig getting nominated would be cool, but I don’t have too much
faith in the film actually getting singled out here. It will get the vote from
a lot of women, but I don’t know how strong those feelings are. My gut is that
it gets in, it only needs 5%.
9. Joker (Todd Phillips) – It has won
some high profile awards along the way, and it is as radical and bizarre as any
movie I can ever remember in legitimate Oscar Best Picture contention. I think
it gets in.
10. Ford v Ferarri (James Mangold) –
This year’s Hacksaw Ridge, the movie
that is so old-fashioned and geared toward old voters. It is mostly forgotten
at this point, but these movies always resurface at the last minute.
Others in contention
11. The Farewell (Lulu Wang) – This would
be a real pleasant surprise, especially because it isn’t really campaigning
much. There really isn’t a precedent for it, but there seems to be a slight
groundswell for it.
12. Uncut Gems (Benny Safdie, Josh Safdie) –
This would be like Phantom Thread
getting nominated, which seemed out of nowhere, but it really was that one
movie that was just too good to ignore.
13. The Two Popes (Fernando Meirelles) –
This seems far-fetched at this point, but Netflix is Netflix and has to be mentioned.
14. Knives Out (Rian Johnson) – This would
be bonkers if it got in, but there is so much Hollywood talent and love for it,
along with the old school Hollywood style mystery format. Just keep it in the
back of your head.
That’s it for the major categories! Thoughts? Check out the
ARTISTIC AND TECHNICAL categories, as well as the predicted nominations count
for each film.
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