Monday, August 2, 2021

Power Rankings: NBA Draft Classes - 2021 Edition

Last week, the NBA welcomed 60 new players into their ranks with the latest NBA Draft.  It's always around this time that I like to go back and see how past draft classes compare to each other.  How have the recent classes improved?  What is the greatest draft class of all time?  Here is the latest attempt at determining that.

The rankings go back to 1989, which was the first draft of just 2 rounds.  I created a formula to evaluate the class that take into account MVP's, All-NBA players, Hall of Famers, success of the top pick, top 10 flops, and depth of the class into the 2nd round.  To see last year's evaluation and a bigger breakdown of how the formula works, click here.

32.  2020 Draft
Score: -7.875
1st Pick: Anthony Edwards (ranked 29.5 out of 32)
Best Player: Isaiah Stewart (ranked 31.5 out of 32)
All Stars: 0
All-NBA: 0
HoF: 0
MVP's: 0
Never Played: 5
Top 10 Flops: 7
Notable 2nd Rounders: 2 (Tillman Sr., Martin Jr.)

The latest class always ends up in last as they are still establishing careers.  For a class whose Rookie of the Year missed half the season, they have a lot of development to go.

t-30.  2000 Draft
Score: 0.875
1st Pick: Kenyon Martin (22)
Best Player: Hedo Turkoglu (31.5)
All Stars: 3 (Magloire, Martin, Redd)
All-NBA: 1 (Redd)
HoF: 0
MVP's: 0
Never Played: 8
Top 10 Flops: 5
Notable 2nd Rounders: 3 (House, Najera, Redd)

It's going to take a lot for another class to come along and settle in a position worse than this draft was.  No star power, no depth.

t-30.  2017 Draft
Score: 0.875
1st Pick: Markelle Fultz (29)
Best Player: Bam Adebayo (19.5)
All Stars: 3 (Adebayo, Mitchell, Tatum)
All-NBA: 1 (Tatum)
HoF: 0
MVP's: 0
Never Played: 4
Top 10 Flops: 6
Notable 2nd Rounders: 2 (Bryant, Morris)

They have a couple guys that have serious star potential, but Fultz needs to turn his career around for this draft to move up.

29.  2006 Draft
Score: 4.3125
1st Pick: Andrea Bargnani (27)
Best Player: LaMarcus Aldridge (21.75)
All Stars: 5 (Aldridge, Lowry, Millsap, Rondo, Roy)
All-NBA: 4 (Aldridge, Roy, Rondo, Lowry)
HoF: 0
MVP's: 0
Never Played: 8
Top 10 Flops: 6
Notable 2nd Rounders: 2 (Tucker, Millsap)

With LaMarcus Aldridge retiring, this draft is pretty much set as one of the worst in the last 30 years.

28.  2019 Draft
Score: 6.25
1st Pick: Zion Williamson (11.5)
Best Player: Zion Williamson (21)
All Stars: 1 (Williamson)
All-NBA: 0
HoF: 0
MVP's: 0
Never Played: 2
Top 10 Flops: 7
Notable 2nd Rounders: 2 (Gafford, Mann)

This draft class is on the rise quick and will go as far as Zion star power goes.

27.  2013 Draft
Score: 7.625
1st Pick: Anthony Bennett (31.5)
Best Player: Rudy Gobert (7.5)
All Stars: 3 (Antetokounmpo, Gobert, Oladipo)
All-NBA: 3 (Antetokounmpo, Gobert, Oladipo)
HoF: 0
MVP's: 2 (Antetokounmpo - 2)
Never Played: 9
Top 10 Flops: 3
Notable 2nd Rounders: 1 (Ennis)

It's shocking that despite 2 MVP seasons and now an NBA championship, Giannis is not the best player of the draft in terms of Win Shares.  There is star power, but there isn't any depth.  Anthony Bennett will go down as one of the worst draft misses in NBA history.

26.  2010 Draft
Score: 8.0625
1st Pick: John Wall (20)
Best Player: Paul George (24.75)
All Stars: 4 (Cousins, George, Hayward, Wall)
All-NBA: 3 (Wall, Cousins, George)
HoF: 0
MVP's: 0
Never Played: 9
Top 10 Flops: 2
Notable 2nd Rounders: 1 (Whiteside)

Similar to the last class, there is some star power here with Paul George potentially on a Hall of Fame track.  However, this class has been derailed by John Wall's injuries.  If he can rebound, he might be able to change the narrative.

25.  2018 Draft
Score: 9.875
1st Pick: Deandre Ayton (13.75)
Best Player: Luka Doncic (22)
All Stars: 2 (Doncic, Young)
All-NBA: 1 (Doncic)
HoF: 0
MVP's: 0
Never Played: 4
Top 10 Flops: 4
Notable 2nd Rounders: 4 (Brunson, Graham, Robinson, Brown)

Watch out for this draft class!  They have two stars that could be MVP candidates for the next 10+ seasons, and Ayton showed this season that he is special too.  They could move up this list for sure.

24.  1994 Draft
Score: 10
1st Pick: Glenn Robinson (22.5)
Best Player: Jason Kidd (26)
All Stars: 5 (Hill, Howard, Jones, Kidd, Robinson)
All-NBA: 4 (Kidd, Hill, Howard, Jones)
HoF: 2 (Kidd, Hill)
MVP's: 0
Never Played: 9
Top 10 Flops: 3
Notable 2nd Rounders: 2 (Smith, Lenard)

Two Hall of Famers is a great top of your class, but the Win Share stat doesn't seem to like Jason Kidd.  That's really what is holding this class down.

23.  2015 Draft
Score: 11.25
1st Pick: Karl-Anthony Towns (5.5)
Best Player: Karl-Anthony Towns (11)
All Stars: 4 (Booker, Porzingis, Russell, Towns)
All-NBA: 1 (Towns)
HoF: 0
MVP's: 0
Never Played: 16
Top 10 Flops: 6
Notable 2nd Rounders: 5 (Harrell, Holmes, Richardson, Connaughton, Powell)

Karl-Anthony Towns has a chance to be an all-time great, and Devin Booker will make an All-NBA team soon, but how have 16 players from this draft never played?

22.  1991 Draft
Score: 12.5625
1st Pick: Larry Johnson (13.5)
Best Player: Dikembe Mutombo (25.75)
All Stars: 7 (Anderson, Brandon, Davis, Gatling, Johnson, Mutombo, Smith)
All-NBA: 2 (Johnson, Mutombo)
HoF: 1 (Mutombo)
MVP's: 0
Never Played: 10
Top 10 Flops: 3
Notable 2nd Rounders: 1 (Phills)

A lot of All Stars here, but very little star power and depth in the second round.

21.  1989 Draft
Score: 12.625
1st Pick: Pervis Ellison (25)
Best Player: Vlade Divac (28.5)
All Stars: 9 (Armstrong, Barros, Blaylock, Divac, Elliott, Hardaway, Kemp, Rice, Robinson)
All-NBA: 3 (Rice, Hardaway, Kemp)
HoF: 2 (Divac, Rada)
MVP's: 0
Never Played: 6
Top 10 Flops: 3
Notable 2nd Rounders: 2 (Douglas, Robinson)

Similar to the last class, a lot of good players, but no real stars.  When Vlade Divac is your most accomplished player, your class has a pretty low ceiling.

20.  2014 Draft
Score: 13.375
1st Pick: Andrew Wiggins (26.5)
Best Player: Nikola Jokic (4.5)
All Stars: 4 (Embiid, Jokic, LaVine, Randle)
All-NBA: 3 (Embiid, Randle, Jokic)
HoF: 0
MVP's: 1 (Jokic)
Never Played: 7
Top 10 Flops: 4
Notable 2nd Rounders: 6 (Harris, Dinwiddie, Grant, Jokic, Powell, Clarkson)

The biggest mover from last year, this class jumped 6 spots thanks to Jokic's MVP award.  Add Embiid to that, and a solid second round (including Jokic), and this class can continue to rise.

19.  2001 Draft
Score: 13.6875
1st Pick: Kwame Brown (27)
Best Player: Pau Gasol (18.25)
All Stars: 8 (Arenas, Chandler, Gasol, Johnson, Okur, Parker, Randolph, Wallace)
All-NBA: 6 (Chandler, Gasol, Johnson, Randolph, Parker, Arenas)
HoF: 0
MVP's: 0
Never Played: 8
Top 10 Flops: 3
Notable 2nd Rounders: 3 (Arenas, Okur, Simmons)

An infamously bad top pick is somewhat saved by a lot of depth behind him (and two All Star second round picks).

18.  2016 Draft
Score: 14.25
1st Pick: Ben Simmons (10)
Best Player: Ben Simmons (20)
All Stars: 5 (Brown, Ingram, Sabonis, Siakam, Simmons)
All-NBA: 2 (Simmons, Siakam)
HoF: 0
MVP's: 0
Never Played: 6
Top 10 Flops: 4
Notable 2nd Rounders: 2 (Zubac, Brogdon)

The Win Share stat loves Ben Simmons, making him a top ten #1 pick of all time.  We will see if he can keep his class here with the drama surrounding him.

17.  2004 Draft
Score: 15.25
1st Pick: Dwight Howard (8)
Best Player: Dwight Howard (16)
All Stars: 5 (Deng, Harris, Howard, Iguodala, Nelson)
All-NBA: 2 (Howard, Jefferson)
HoF: 0
MVP's: 0
Never Played: 13
Top 10 Flops: 2
Notable 2nd Rounders: 3 (Varejao, Duhon, Ariza)

Dwight Howard dominates this class, and you also have the Al Jefferson, the rare player to make an All-NBA team without ever making an All Star Game.

16.  1995 Draft
Score: 15.375
1st Pick: Joe Smith (19.5)
Best Player: Kevin Garnett (12.5)
All Stars: 6 (Finley, Garnett, McDyess, Ratliff, Stackhouse, Wallace)
All-NBA: 2 (McDyess, Garnett)
HoF: 1 (Garnett)
MVP's: 1 (Garnett)
Never Played: 8
Top 10 Flops: 3
Notable 2nd Rounders: 2 (Snow, Hoiberg)

The Kevin Garnett draft.  Yet another draft elevated by an all-time great.

15.  1990 Draft
Score: 15.875
1st Pick: Derrick Coleman (18.5)
Best Player: Gary Payton (20.5)
All Stars: 6 (Ceballos, Coleman, Davis, Hill, Payton, Williams)
All-NBA: 2 (Coleman, Payton)
HoF: 2 (Payton, Kukoc)
MVP's: 0
Never Played: 2
Top 10 Flops: 4
Notable 2nd Rounders: 4 (Kukoc, Coles)

This turned out to be a deep draft with a couple Hall of Famers.  If only Derrick Coleman could have stayed healthy...

14.  1998 Draft
Score: 16.375
1st Pick: Michael Olowokandi (31.5)
Best Player: Dirk Nowitzki (8.5)
All Stars: 5 (Carter, Jamison, Lewis, Nowitzki, Pierce)
All-NBA: 3 (Carter, Nowitzki, Pierce)
HoF: 1 (Pierce)
MVP's: 1 (Nowitzki)
Never Played: 1
Top 10 Flops: 2
Notable 2nd Rounders: 5 (Patterson, Lewis, Alston, Mobley, Buckner)

An all-time bad top pick is saved by an all-time great in Dirk and a really deep 2nd round.

13.  1993 Draft
Score: 17.125
1st Pick: Chris Webber (15)
Best Player: Sam Cassell (28.5)
All Stars: 7 (Baker, Cassell, Hardaway, Houston, Mashburn, Van Exel, Webber)
All-NBA: 5 (Webber, Hardaway, Mashburn, Baker, Cassell)
HoF: 1 (Webber)
MVP's: 0
Never Played: 11
Top 10 Flops: 1
Notable 2nd Rounders: 4 (Harris, Van Exel, Russell, Whitney)

No transcendent talent, but a lot of really good talent puts this class where it is.

12.  2002 Draft
Score: 17.4375
1st Pick: Yao Ming (5.5)
Best Player: Amar'e Stoudemire (22.25)
All Stars: 4 (Boozer, Butler, Ming, Stoudemire)
All-NBA: 3 (Ming, Stoudemire, Boozer)
HoF: 1 (Ming)
MVP's: 0
Never Played: 9
Top 10 Flops: 3
Notable 2nd Rounders: 4 (Boozer, Barnes, Butler, Scola)

When Yao was healthy, he was an all-time great.  Injuries and accidents derailed the careers of the top two picks in this draft.

11.  1999 Draft
Score: 18.5
1st Pick: Elton Brand (13.25)
Best Player: Shawn Marion (22.5)
All Stars: 9 (Artest, Brand, Davis, Francis, Ginobili, Hamilton, Kirilenko, Marion, Szczerbiak)
All-NBA: 5 (Brand, Davis, Marion, Artest, Ginobili)
HoF: 0
MVP's: 0
Never Played: 12
Top 10 Flops: 1
Notable 2nd Rounders: 1 (Ginobili)

Everyone forgets how good everyone in this draft was.  Nine All Stars is a big number!

10.  2007 Draft
Score: 18.75
1st Pick: Greg Oden (16.5)
Best Player: Kevin Durant (5)
All Stars: 5 (Conley, Durant, Gasol, Horford, Noah)
All-NBA: 4 (Durant, Horford, Noah, Gasol)
HoF: 0
MVP's: 1 (Durant)
Never Played: 11
Top 10 Flops: 2
Notable 2nd Rounders: 3 (Landry, Gasol, Sessions)

Cracking the top ten for the first time.  If Oden had been good in any way, this could have been a top 5 class.

9.  2008 Draft
Score: 19.3125
1st Pick: Derrick Rose (22)
Best Player: Russell Westbrook (19.75)
All Stars: 7 (Dragic, Hibbert, Jordan, Lopez, Love, Rose, Westbrook)
All-NBA: 5 (Rose, Westbrook, Love, Jordan, Dragic)
HoF: 0
MVP's: 2 (Westbrook, Rose)
Never Played: 9
Top 10 Flops: 2
Notable 2nd Rounders: 5 (Chalmers, Jordan, Asik, Mbah a Moute, Dragic)

If only Rose had stayed healthy...  As it is, this is a great class with a couple really good players coming out of the second round.

8.  2011 Draft
Score: 22.25
1st Pick: Kyrie Irving (11)
Best Player: Jimmy Butler (12)
All Stars: 7 (Butler, Irving, Leonard, Thomas, Thompson, Vucevic, Walker)
All-NBA: 6 (Irving, Walker, Thompson, Leonard. Butler, Thomas)
HoF: 0
MVP's: 0
Never Played: 6
Top 10 Flops: 4
Notable 2nd Rounders: 3 (Bogdanovic, Parsons, Thomas)

This class is littered with potential Hall of Famers.  It's surprising there hasn't been an MVP out of this group.  Leonard or maybe Butler could still pull one off.

7.  2005 Draft
Score: 23.125
1st Pick: Andrew Bogut (19.5)
Best Player: Chris Paul (1.5)
All Stars: 5 (Bynum, Granger, Lee, Paul, Williams)
All-NBA: 5 (Bogut, Williams, Paul, Bynum, Lee)
HoF: 0
MVP's: 0
Never Played: 5
Top 10 Flops: 1
Notable 2nd Rounders: 7 (Bass, Miles, Ilyasova, Ellis, Williams, Johnson, Gortat)

Chris Paul could go down as one of the greatest point guards of all time, but this draft has some other great players and a really deep second round.

6.  1997 Draft
Score: 26
1st Pick: Tim Duncan (2.5)
Best Player: Tim Duncan (6)
All Stars: 3 (Billups, Duncan, McGrady)
All-NBA: 3 (Duncan, Billups, McGrady)
HoF: 2 (Duncan, McGrady)
MVP's: 2 (Duncan - 2)
Never Played: 10
Top 10 Flops: 2
Notable 2nd Rounders: 3 (Johnson, Jackson, Williams)

It wasn't a deep draft, but it was the Duncan draft.  McGrady and Billups help too.

5.  2012 Draft
Score: 27.25
1st Pick: Anthony Davis (2.5)
Best Player: Damian Lillard (11)
All Stars: 6 (Beal, Davis, Drummond, Green, Lillard, Middleton)
All-NBA: 5 (Davis, Beal, Lillard, Drummond, Green)
HoF: 0
MVP's: 0
Never Played: 4
Top 10 Flops: 3
Notable 2nd Rounders: 4 (Crowder, Green, Middleton, Barton)

This is an amazing draft class that could end up competing for the top spot before all is said and done.  It's got a star at the top, several stars otherwise that could win an MVP, and a solid group of 2nd rounders.

4.  2009 Draft
Score: 27.625
1st Pick: Blake Griffin (10.5)
Best Player: James Harden (3.5)
All Stars: 6 (Curry, DeRozen, Griffin, Harden, Holiday, Teague)
All-NBA: 4 (Griffin, Harden, Curry, DeRozen)
HoF: 0
MVP's: 3 (Curry - 2, Harden)
Never Played: 10
Top 10 Flops: 3
Notable 2nd Rounders: 7 (Cunningham, Jerebko, Meeks, Beverly, Thornton, Green, Mills)

Steph Curry and James Harden.  That makes this class special.  Add in a strong 2nd round and many other recognizable names, this class is an all-time great.

3.  1992 Draft
Score: 28.625
1st Pick: Shaquille O'Neal (4)
Best Player: Shaquille O'Neal (8.5)
All Stars: 5 (Gugliotta, Laettner, Mourning, O'Neal, Sprewell)
All-NBA: 3 (O'Neal, Mourning, Sprewell)
HoF: 2 (O'Neal, Mourning)
MVP's: 1 (O'Neal)
Never Played: 6
Top 10 Flops: 1
Notable 2nd Rounders: 3 (Brown, Jones, Geiger)

The Shaq draft.  He alone makes this draft noteworthy, Add in guys like Zo, and this is a great star-studded class.

2.  2003 Draft
Score: 35.375
1st Pick: LeBron James (1)
Best Player: JeBron James (1.5)
All Stars: 9 (Anthony, Bosh, Howard, James, Kaman, Korver, Wade, West, Williams)
All-NBA: 4 (James, Anthony, Wade, Bosh)
HoF: 1 (Bosh)
MVP's: 4 (James - 4)
Never Played: 11
Top 10 Flops: 4
Notable 2nd Rounders: 7 (Blake, Pachulia, Bogans, Bonner, Williams, Jones, Korver)

As the elite in this draft class continue to age out of the league and look towards the Hall of Fame (already have one, probably will have at least three more), there is a chance they eventually end up #1.

1.  1996 Draft
Score: 36.5
1st Pick: Allen Iverson (13)
Best Player: Kobe Bryant (15)
All Stars: 10 (Adbur-Rahim, Allen, Bryant, Ilgauskas, Iverson, Marbury, Nash, O'Neal, Stojakovic, Walker)
All-NBA: 7 (Iverson, Marbury, Allen, Bryant, Stojakovic, Nash, O'Neal)
HoF: 4 (Iverson, Allen, Bryant, Nash)
MVP's: 4 (Bryant, Nash - 2, Iverson)
Never Played: 11
Top 10 Flops: 1
Notable 2nd Rounders: 4 (Harrington, McInnis, Rose, Anderson)

And still ... greatest draft class of all time.  This is by far the deepest class of elite players.  Three different MVP's (only two other classes have two).  Only class with double digit All Stars.  Most All-NBA players.  Only class with more the two Hall of Famers.  With that said, Win Shares doesn't seem to like Iverson and Kobe that much.  In 10 years, 2003 might eventually take the title, but this will always be my favorite draft class.

No comments:

Post a Comment