Thursday, April 4, 2024

2024 Pre-Season Profile: New York Mets

 #18
The New York Mets went from being the best team money could buy and a legit World Series contender to selling at the Trade Deadline.  Are they ready to climb the mountaintop in 2024?

#3 - 1st in NL East, lose in NLCS
MIH - Brandon Nimmo
MIP - Kodai Senga
PTW - Francisco Alvarez
FP - A closer named Diaz will lead the Mets in saves in 2023.

2023 Results
#23 - 75-87, 4th in NL East
Highest WAR (Position) - Francisco Lindor
Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Kodai Senga
The Mets won the award as the most disappointing season in the league.  They had thrown so much money at so many top players trying to put together and All Star roster, and it just didn't work.  The Edwin Diaz injury during the World Baseball Classic didn't help either.  There were some bright spots, as Japanese import Kodai Senga showed he's the real deal.  Phenom catcher Francisco Alvarez showed signs that he could be the star they were hoping he would be in the next couple years.  However, when you have to give up and trade both Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer mid-season to help reset your roster, it's not a good year.


Additions / Subtractions
The most notable change was the replacement of manager Buck Showalter with Yankees bench coach Carlos Mendoza.  In terms of the roster, no more huge splashes for the Mets, at least not this year.  They signed starters Luis Severino and Sean Manaea to stabilize the rotation.  Center fielder Harrison Bader is another smaller signing to fill a hole.  Then there was last minute addition J.D. Martinez as the team's full time DH.  All of these are solid moves, but when the Mets were printing money the last couple off-seasons, it's a little underwhelming.


Most Important Hitter
Pete Alonso
One of the more interesting storylines of the off-season was the move that wasn't made.  Pete Alonso is entering the final year of club control with the Mets, and he is set to be a free agent at the end of the season.  There was plenty of talk about the Mets either signing Alonso long term or trading him to continue their step back and reset.  Instead, Alonso is playing in a contract year.  Will he sign long term?  Will he be traded mid-season if the Mets are irrelevant?  Anything is possible.


Most Important Pitcher
Edwin Diaz
Losing Edwin Diaz in that freak celebration injury pre-season last year dealt a bigger blow than anyone anticipated.  Not only is he the Mets closer, but he is also a spark plug and source of so much energy.  The Mets also chose to replace him internally instead of trading for another closer.  Now he's back, but is he truly back to being the most dominant closer in baseball?  If he is, the whole bullpen works.  If not, this Mets bullpen gets really thin really fast.


Prospect to Watch
Luisangel Acuna
The Mets sport the 13th best farm system in baseball, thanks almost entirely to their Trade Deadline moves last season.  Three of their four Top 100 Prospects were acquired mid-season last year.  Two of these prospects have a chance to make an impact in 2024, and the most intriguing of those is Luisangel Acuna.  This 22 year old middle infielder is the younger brother of reigning NL MVP Ronald Acuna and was acquired last season in the Max Scherzer trade to the Rangers.  In many ways, he looks like a mini version of his brother.  He doesn't have the same power at just 5'8", but he can definitely still hit.  He is also a strong defender up the middle.  The Mets seem pretty set at second and shortstop with Francisco Lindor and Jeff McNeil, but it will be a big storyline when this phenom makes his debut for more reasons than one.


2024 Prediction
3rd in NL East
When the 2023 roster wasn't working, the Mets knew they needed to take a step back and build a more sustainable winner.  They have done that, but they also knew it meant they were probably sacrificing the 2024 season in the process.  With that said, there is still way too much talent on this roster for them to be bad.  The Mets should be much better this year than last year.  They are also in a very top heavy division with two juggernauts that they hope to join very soon.


Fearless Prediction
Pete Alonso will be traded mid-season, and then sign a free agent deal with the Mets in the off-season.
This may be a wild prediction, but it feels like a very Mets thing to do.  By the Trade Deadline, the Mets may be ready to give up enough on the season to trade their first baseman, especially if he is having a good season and could bring back a good haul of prospects.  So then Pete Alonso becomes a free agent and signs with the highest bidder.  Well, that sounds like it would be the Mets.  So they get the prospect package and the star signed long term.  It doesn't happen often (Yankees pulled it off with Aroldis Chapman a few years back), but it feels like a situation that could play out here.


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