Wednesday, January 1, 2025

2026 Oscar Predictions: January

It is that time again! My absurdly early Oscar predictions are the highlight of the year at AlmostSideways. We don’t even have this year’s Oscar nominations yet, but here I am running through next year’s contenders. My predictions have not been the strongest in recent years because the new Academy is way harder to gauge than it used to be. There are so many international contenders in all categories, so this year I really dug deep to try to uncover which of those films might really stick.
Each year, I break down several films that eventually get delayed or go into years of post production. I am not going to include those in my yearly January predictions anymore. Here is that list of films that could easily be nominated for Oscars, along with the number of years they have been on this list:

Alto Knights (Barry Levinson)

Anniversary (Jan Komasa)

Echo Valley (Michael Pearce)

F1 (Joseph Kosinski)

Havoc (Gareth Evans; 2nd straight year)

In the Blink of an Eye (Andrew Stanton)

Long Day's Journey Into Night (Jonathan Kent; 2nd straight year)

Materialists (Celine Song)

Mickey 17 (Bong Joon-Ho)

Mother Mary (David Lowery)

On Swift Horses (Daniel Minahan)

Polaris (Lynne Ramsey)

Seacole (Charlie Stratton; 2nd straight year)

Silent Friend (Ildiko Inyedi)

The Actor (Duke Johnson; 2nd straight year)

The Collaboration (Kwame Kewi-Armah; 2nd straight year)

The Governesses (Joe Talbot; 2nd straight year)

The History of Sound (Oliver Hermanus)

The Ice Tower (Lucille Hadzihalilovi)

The Island (Pawel Pawlikowski)

The Legend of Ochi (Isaiah Saxon)

The Way of the Wind (Terrence Malick; 6th straight year)

Untitled Jordan Peele Film (Now 2026)

Untitled Safdie Brothers Film


To prevent that list from continuing to grow each year, contenders must be listed as either being in Post-Production by December 2024 or being In Production with 2025 listed as the expected release year.


Without further ado, here are your 2026 Oscar nominees:


BEST PICTURE

The Predicted Ten

1. Sentimental Value (Joachim Trier) - Coming up with the winner this far in advance is always the biggest challenge. Trier had his Oscar breakout a few years ago when he got into Original Screenplay (The Worst Person in the World), and here he reunites with Renate Reinsve for a film about two sisters whose mother dies, and their film director father returns to their lives. It may not be exactly what the Academy would typically go for, but if we know one thing in the last 15 years, it’s that they love foreign filmmakers more than American filmmakers. It sounds like something that could really hit if it nails the festival run, and it isn’t a fully foreign film - Elle Fanning and Cory Michael Smith co-star.

2. Wicked: For Good (Jon M. Chu) - This has to be put up here. We are in the midst of the enthusiasm surrounding Wicked: Part I, and it is actually making a run up the Best Picture boards despite being a clear half of a story. If the movie continues its rise, and the second part doesn’t completely fall on its face, then we are looking at a potential awards season sweeper in 2026. It could go by way of Return of the King and take every award from every awards circuit. That’s boring to predict, so we put it at #2.

3. Hamnet (Chloe Zhao) - This is the story of William Shakespeare’s wife Agnes and how her struggle with the death of their son Hamnet led to the writing of Hamlet. Zhao won an Oscar before making the biggest MCU flop, so here she is getting back to the basics. The Academy always has a soft spot for literary works, and this seems to really have the type of intimate drama that will set it apart from a typical Shakespearean production. The cast is to die for.

4. The Bride (Maggie Gyllenhaal) - After The Lost Daughter, Gyllenhaal showed that she is a director to be reckoned with. Here, she takes on the story of the Bride of Frankenstein in a musical horror movie adaptation of the Mary Shelley story. Horror movies have been surging lately with the Academy, even though it appears they don’t really care about Nosferatu. I expect Gyllenhaal to make this movie artistically breathtaking, while also sticking to her roots. It is a bit ambitious to put it this high, but no guts no glory in January!

5. No Other Choice (Park Chan-wook) - As a sports gambler, you have to be contrarian in order to win sometimes. The previous film by the master and never-nominated Park was Decision to Leave, which was his best chance at breaking through, and it came up short. Maybe he just isn’t the Academy’s thing. Or maybe you have to go back to the well and predict his next movie to be an even bigger player. This is an adaptation of a book about a man who is fired from his job, and decides to hunt down his competition for his new employment opportunity. It is a South Korean production, but one of these foreign films is going to be a major player. Why not this one?

6. The Life of Chuck (Mike Flanagan) - I usually don’t include movies like this that I used the year before, but it came out of nowhere to win TIFF and then got held onto by Neon, and Neon actually knows how to push awards players. This is a Stephen King adaptation about three different times in an ordinary man’s life, and it has been compared to a Capra movie. I still like this film to be a player a year later. I’m thinking it is an even easier sell than Sing Sing.

7. Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Film - There are no concrete details about the film just yet, but we have gone through this with PTA’s last two films Phantom Thread and Licorice Pizza, both of which got nominated for Best Picture. He is the only one of the elite active directors with a film getting released in 2025, so on name recognition alone, this is pretty secure here. It is said to be his most “mainstream” film yet…whatever that means.

8. Arva (Laszlo Nemes) - The Oscar winning director of Son of Saul gets another period drama, this one about a young boy during the 1956 Hungarian uprising. It sounds like it could be a bit like Blitz, but with the crew involved it will be a lot less conventional. This was actually my original choice to win, but I also remember thinking 2018’s Sunset by Nemes would make a run. That movie basically disappeared.

9. The Wedding Banquet (Andrew Ahn) - This is a Sundance premiere, and Andrew Ahn feels like the next Chloe Zhao/Sean Baker ultra indie director where it might just be his time. This is a remake of the 1993 Ang Lee Oscar nominated film about a gay man who is getting married for a green card. It sounds like the kind of film with the type of cast that will be a SAG favorite.

10. Huntington (John Patton Ford) - This is my deep cut outside-the-box prediction. John Patton Ford won a Spirit Award for his wonderful and shockingly popular Emily the Criminal, and now here he has a dark comedy about a murder plot aimed at collecting a family fortune. The cast is filled with the type of actors who have popped up in Oscar movies over the years. It is being distributed by StudioCanal, which is both interesting and concerning. 

Others in contention

11. Hand of Dante (Julian Schnabel) - This is an adaptation of a book about a manuscript that is passed along from person to person, including a mob boss. The cast is insane, which includes the likes of Jason Momoa and Martin Scorsese, who lend support to Oscar Isaac, Al Pacino, John Malkovich, among others. The thing is, I really don’t know if Schnabel is a good director. Back in 2010, I was all over Miral being the Best Picture frontrunner, but it flopped and sucked. In fact, half of his movies are actively bad. Even his “good movies” are just average like Eternity’s Gate. But he does have Diving Bell and the Butterfly, so we still have to pay attention. This sounds really fun too.

12. Avatar: Fire and Ash (James Cameron) - I feel foolish doubting James Cameron. Actually, it isn’t really doubt; it is just being less interested in putting the third film in a series on this list when I can hype up some other projects. I really don’t know where this film will go, but it will make billions of dollars and be nominated for Best Picture. It has a perfect December release. This should be #7 or #8.

13. The Captive (Alejandro Amenabar) - This is another shot at picking the correct foreign film to be anointed. It is directed by the Oscar winning director of The Sea Inside, and it is about Miguel de Cervantes and his efforts to escape captivity and develop his skills as a writer. It could be a nonstarter, but it is worth keeping an eye on. The cast would be mostly new faces to American audiences.

14. Bugonia (Yorgos Lanthimos) - At least after Kinds of Kindness, we got some sort of rejection of Lanthimos’s nonsense. This is a remake of the 2003 South Korean film Save the Green Planet!, which is about two conspiracy theorists who kidnap a CEO who they suspect is an alien. Lanthimos has gotten wilder ideas to the Oscars. He is somehow the Academy’s thing, even though that makes zero sense.

15. The Entertainment System Is Down (Ruben Ostlund) - Fresh off his Oscar nominations for Triangle of Sadness, Ostlund has this comedy about the passengers of a plane when the entertainment system isn’t working. The cast is ridiculous. I don’t know why Ostlund's movies appeal to the Academy, but they do. It is being distributed by A24, so that is a step in the right direction. The release info is uncertain here. This is the one movie I really am not confident will come out in 2025, but it could. I just would expect a Cannes premiere, which it will not be done in time for this year.

16. At the Sea (Kornel Mundruczo) - This is a movie by the director of Pieces of a Woman, and it is about a woman after rehab who returns to her home to rebuild her life. This is one of the more interesting casts for a serious drama, which is filled with comedic actors. I love that strategy, and while the movie is probably more of an acting showcase than a BP player, Mundruczo is ripe for a big breakout film.

17. The Wave (Sebastian Lelio) - This is a Chilean movie about a feminist student who finds herself leading a movement. Lelio won an Oscar for A Fantastic Woman, so he is a known commodity with the Academy. This sounds like the kind of message movie that the Academy loves to pat themselves on the back for singling out. Lelio is hit or miss as a director, but this one sounds promising,

18. Frankenstein (Guillermo Del Toro) - It was only a matter of time before Del Toro took on this subject matter. I know Nosferatu didn’t catch on quite as much as I had expected, but this is Del Toro doing the classic adaptation. I think the Academy is eager to embrace some horror movies, and this could be a tremendous companion to The Bride. The cast for this movie is perfect, and I cannot wait to see it. It is being distributed by Netflix, which is a bummer, but I can see a wider rollout for a movie with this kind of visual appeal.

19. Kiss of the Spider Woman (Bill Condon) - This is a musical remake of the Best Picture nominee from 1985. Condon is up and down with the Academy, but this seems like the kind of material that he will flourish with. The Academy has been pretty receptive to remakes in recent years, so this isn’t exactly coming in with a disadvantage. It is premiering at Sundance. It is about an unlikely bond between prisoners.

20. Rental Family (Hikari) - This is a drama by one of the directors of Beef, and it is about a struggling American actor in Japan who gets hired by a rental company. It has been in development for quite a while, and having recent Oscar winner Brendan Fraser as the lead is the main draw. I am intrigued to see what happens with this. It could either be amazing or completely out of touch.

21. Caught Stealing (Darren Aronofsky) - Aronofsky really has only had one movie that hit hard with the Academy. This is an Austin Butler vehicle about an ex-baseball player who finds himself stuck in a crime plot in 1990s NYC. Aronofsky isn’t one to just make genre movies, so this has to have more lurking under the surface. I am always paying attention to whatever he does.

22. Ella McCay (James L Brooks) - How Do You Know…I know. I know. Whatever. This is a return to film after 15 years for the 84 year old 3-time Oscar winner. It is about a young politician who is taking over the governor job from her longtime mentor. The cast is obviously the perfect James L Brooks cast, and who knows? Maybe the Academy will need a comedy-drama by a nostalgic former regular like Brooks in 2025.

23. O'Dessa (Geremy Jasper) - This could be way too small, but the cast is interesting to me. The director of the charming 2017 indie Patti Cake$ helms this musical about a farm girl who is searching for a family heirloom. Like I have been saying, one of the directors of micro indie films is going to pop this year. Why not this one?

24. The Lost Bus (Paul Greengrass) - I famously hyped News of the World up back in 2021, and for good reason. I still don’t entirely know why I was wrong about that. Here, Greengrass directs this thriller about the 2018 Camp Fire, which was the deadliest fire in California’s history. It focuses on a bus driver and a teacher who were important in their roles to fight the wildfire. It is being distributed by Apple, so hopefully we get a decent opportunity to see it on the big screen.

25. Jimpa (Sophia Hyde) - This is a Sundance premiere from the director of BAFTA-nominated Good Luck to You, Leo Grande. It is about a woman who is forced to reflect on her parenting when her non-binary teenager wants to stay with her gay grandfather in Amsterdam. It might not sound like much until I mention that it stars Olivia Colman and John Lithgow. Sold?



BEST DIRECTOR

The Predicted Five

1. Joachim Trier - Sentimental Value - This is all about finding the right foreign director to predict to win. In the last 15 years, the Academy has awarded an American born director just twice. Trier’s film has Best Picture frontrunner status, and even though the Academy likes to split Picture and Director, that trend has gone away in the last 5 years with 2021 being the only time it split since 2018. Trier got nominated for Original Screenplay in 2021, so he is a filmmaker that clearly has fans in the increasingly international Academy. The movie might not sound like much on the surface, but predicting a split here would be foolish.

2. Maggie Gyllenhaal - The Bride - She only got the screenplay nomination for her previous film, but here we have a big budget spectacle where she can really show off what she can do. I am fascinated to see where her directing career takes her if this is her second film. Usually the director gets a lot of credit for the overall atmosphere with a big film like this. I can’t imagine a scenario where this doesn’t hit. It is scheduled for a release in September, so it will need to blow everyone away while festival season is going on.

3. Chloe Zhao - Hamnet - She won in this category in 2020 (Nomadland), and here she gets a big dressed up costume drama. It doesn’t seem to fit with what she has become known for, but she is expanding her horizons. She is one of the most interesting young directors in the world, and here will be a test to see if she learned anything from her Eternals debacle.

4. Park Chan-wook - No Other Choice - He has never been nominated, but we all know his films. Oldboy, The Handmaiden, etc were hits in America even. This is probably a tough sell content-wise, but all of his movies are. It sounds pretty outrageous, but that is what I like about it. In a post-EEAAO world, anything can be a contender. He is one of the foreign auteurs that the Academy is just itching to get into its ultra prestigious non-American Best Director lineup.

5. Paul Thomas Anderson - Untitled PTA Film - He is at that stage in his career where basically everything he puts his name on is going to get nominated for Oscars. There was no passion in the industry for Licorice Pizza, and he still got a Director nomination. Whatever this movie is about, it is going to be masterfully directed.

Others in contention

6. Laszlo Nemes - Arva - He actually fits the profile of a director who will win despite his film being overlooked. Nemes is a terrific director, and most people forget just how beloved and entertaining his film about a father trying to bury his son during the Holocaust was. Arva is the type of movie that wins Cannes and everyone acts like it came out of nowhere. But I saw it coming.

7. Jon M. Chu - Wicked: For Good - Seeing how Denis Villeneuve is being treated for the second Dune movie, I am starting to expect a similar fate for Chu. Directors of musicals are also not rewarded as much as the films are overall. If the film is winning Best Picture, then he has to be in the nominations list. It just doesn’t seem like the kind of thing you need to reward two years in a row. Peter Jackson was similarly not nominated for The Two Towers.

8. Julian Schnabel - Hand of Dante - As stated above, I don’t know if he is actually a good director, but one thing we do know is that he is flashy. If the movie clicks, then I can see the direction being the clear reason why. It will likely need to be a killer festival film in order to really cast a wide enough net to voters, but I can see it happening. He has not been nominated since 2007.

9. Andrew Ahn - The Wedding Banquet - His directions are always really subtle, but sometimes that works. The only thing that gives me pause about this movie was his last movie was Fire Island, which was so goofy and never stood a chance at major awards. If he puts in some Spa Night level ambition into this romantic comedy, then he could move up this list pretty easily.

10. John Patton Ford - Huntington - How much of Emily the Criminal was his directing, how much was his writing, and how much of it was simply Aubrey Plaza? We will find out! I actually think he is a great filmmaker, but we will see if the appealing cast will reap its benefits in its release and overall budget.

11. Alejandro Amenabar - The Captive - The movie is billed as an adventure-drama, which bodes well for the director and his ability to show off. When you are looking to get in the director race, you need to do things that stand out, or just be a director we are familiar with. The movie will be released around festival time, so maybe it will pop up here and there and start its campaign. He won Best Foreign Film in 2004.

12. James Cameron - Avatar: Fire and Ash - Now, he didn’t get nominated for Way of Water, despite getting a Best Picture nomination and another Visual Effects win. Maybe they will wait until the eventual final chapter to give him all the awards again. However, this isn’t quite the most stacked director lineup we have ever seen, so we could get a lazy nomination here for one of our clear greatest filmmakers.

13. Mike Flanagan - The Life of Chuck - He is sorta the go-to Stephen King filmmaker nowadays, and this is one of the ones that isn’t horror or even thriller. I have not seen the movie, but from everything I have heard, it is astonishing that it works as well as it does. He is up against so many beloved filmmakers that it will actually need to have a chance at winning BP for him to get brought along for the ride.

14. Yorgos Lanthimos - Bugonia - He will win one of these at some point. He is usually more competitive in the screenplay categories, but this sounds pretty bizarre. A comedy sci-fi movie could not be any less the Academy’s speed, but that’s what I thought about Poor Things. It is a remake, which is intriguing. It could go either way. It has a November release date, so that helps.

15. Darren Aronofsky - Caught Stealing - He was nominated back in 2010, but he really has never been close before nor since. This seems like the kind of thing that if it hits, it could be an easy thing for the Academy to go gaga over. The cast is strong. Aronofsky directs the hell out of every movie he makes, for better or worse.

16. Ruben Ostlund - The Entertainment System Is Down - He was nominated in this category a few years ago. The movie is set on a plane, so you would think that would hurt his ability to do things, but that’s not all that different from Triangle of Sadness. He is a quirky director, and when he makes a movie, we have to pay attention.

17. Guillermo Del Toro - Frankenstein - He is a past winner. He even won an Oscar for Pinnochio. This is going to be a visual treat, and the Academy eats up everything Del Toro does. They love his enthusiasm and imagination in creating these instant classic creatures. I might be underselling this.

18. Hikari - Rental Family - Her short film and debut feature got her raves. Sometimes directors come out of nowhere to get a nomination. I like how this movie sounds on paper, but it is one of those predictions that if I go in too heavy then I'll end up with egg on my face.

19. Geremy Jasper - O’Dessa - His debut film in 2017 was more polished than it had any right to be. He can make a great film, and seeing the cast he got for this one, it could be right here. It feels like a Sundance premiere, but it was not added to the roster. Keep an eye out in the spring when the smaller festivals start going. This one could pop.

20. James L Brooks - Ella McCay - He got his win in 1983, but that has never felt further away after his long breaks and most recent flop. If the movie is a hit, then it won’t matter how flashy or not flashy his direction is. It needs to hit that Up in the Air-type sweet spot.

21. Paul Greengrass - The Lost Bus - Greengrass is good at showing off his directing chops, and a movie like this feels like the perfect vehicle for him. He has been nominated in the past, which always provides a leg up on the competition. We will see what kind of lineup Apple has. They could push this one, and it has the type of storyline that could really be embraced by wide audiences.



BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Tonatiuh - Kiss of the Spider Woman - He is playing the role that brought a Best Actor win to William Hurt. He was just a standout in the Netflix film Carry-On, and here he gets his big breakthrough movie. We will know shortly at Sundance how great he is in this film, but I expect fireworks.

2. Al Pacino - Lear Rex - Pacino is set to have a pretty big year. This is an adaptation of King Lear by Candyman director Bernard Rose. The cast is stacked. Modern Shakespeare adaptations are hit or miss, but Pacino’s involvement has me sold. It is the type of dream role that could get him his first Best Actor nom since 1992.

3. Benedict Cumberbatch - The Roses - This is an adaptation of the novel The War of the Roses. Cumberbatch could become a regular at the Oscars in time. It is about a couple whose lives start to come crashing down. It is written by Tony McNamara (who gets his actors nominated for Oscars) and directed by Jay Roach. It might not be a player in all categories, but this is an intriguing project. Cumberbatch should own the role previously played by Michael Douglas in the 1989 version of this story.

4. Lee Byung-hun - No Other Choice - He is a recognizable face (Squid Game) and a previous collaborator of Park Chan-wook. He is the lead in the movie that sounds like something truly original and wild, but it is also another version of a story that was taken on by Costa-Gavras, so it is not without its prestige pedigree. Lee can nail almost any tone, and this will be his most challenging role to date. I love this film’s chances.

5. Glen Powell - Huntington - Powell is going to get a nomination here really soon. I still think he has an outside shot at getting one this year. However, here he has the lead in John Patton Ford’s dark comedy that seems to fit him like a glove. He also has The Running Man, which is the new Edgar Wright remake of the Schwarzenegger classic from the 80s. He is on top of the world right now for these types of roles. If he is the next Tom Cruise, he will start to get nominated for them.

Others in contention

6. Keanu Reeves - The Entertainment System Is Down - I have no idea if he is the lead or not, but being in a Ruben Ostlund movie is intriguing. If we have learned anything from the John Wick movies, it is that people love Keanu Reeves. It seems far-fetched to think he could get an Oscar nomination, but I would have thought the same thing about Brendan Fraser at a certain point. If this movie is done in time, then I like his chances.

7. Austin Butler - Caught Stealing - He plays a former baseball player turned alcoholic. For one of the first times, I feel like a director really understands what kind of actor Butler can and should be. I can’t wait to see what he does with this performance, and since he is part of the club already after his nomination in 2022, his getting invited back will become a lot easier.

8. Julio Pena - The Captive - We actually get quite a few movies about writers each year, but this one takes us back to the 1500s and will almost certainly give the young actor room to show off some range. He is just 24 years old, which is typically too young to appear in this particular category, but the path is there. He isn’t a complete unknown. He is the star of the Netflix series of films Through My Window.

9. Leonardo DiCaprio - Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Film - Is the Academy over Leo? He was snubbed for arguably a top 8 performance of his career (Killers of the Flower Moon), and maybe pound for pound his best work OUATIH couldn’t bring him a victory. I am sure that whatever PTA has planned for him is going to be electric, but he is going to need actual win potential in order to secure a nomination.

10. Tom Hiddleston - The Life of Chuck - From what I understand, his part isn’t that big because it is only a third of the story. However, he is the biggest name and poster boy for the film, so he will likely be pushed lead. He has never been nominated before.

11. Brendan Fraser - Rental Family - How eager is the Academy to validate the Oscar they gave to Fraser? This is his first real notable lead role he has had since then, and it sounds like an intriguing and challenging role. He appears to be the only American actor in the film, which will put the spotlight solely on him.

12. Guillaume Marbeck - Nouvelle Vague - This is a Richard Linklater directed French film about the making of Breathless. He is a new actor, but he got cast as Jean-Luc Godard. The leads in Linklater projects are not normally the stars, but this could be different. It is just a strange project to keep an eye on.

13. Oscar Isaac - Hand of Dante - I would have him higher, but I have gotten used to everyone taking his insane talent for granted. He is still one of the 5 best actors in the world without a nomination. In Hand of Dante, he plays dual roles as both the writer of the book and the writer of the manuscript in the film. He can do anything. He also has Guillermo Del Toro's Frankenstein this year, where he plays Victor Frankenstein. One of them really should put him in the nominated 5, but we’ll be safe and leave room for a pleasant surprise.

14. Jaafar Jackson - Michael - This is the big music biopic of the year about Michael Jackson starring his nephew Jaafar. It will be his first performance, and it is directed by Antoine Fuqua and written by 3-time Oscar nominee John Logan. Will it be one of the good ones or one of the forgettable ones? I have no idea.

15. John Lithgow - Jimpa - He hasn’t been nominated in over 40 years, but he has been popping up in huge movies in crucial roles in recent years. Playing an older gay man is interesting. We know he won’t overdo it; he’s way too sensitive of an actor. Plus, Hyde is too natural of a director. I expect this to be one of the most talked about films coming out of Sundance.

16. Dwayne Johnson - The Smashing Machine - This is a movie written and directed by Benny Safdie about the famous UFC champion Mark Kerr. MMA and wrestling isn’t the Academy’s thing, but this should be amazing. Getting someone who has charisma to burn like The Rock to play in a Safdie movie? Give it to me now. This will be his first real chance at a prestige project since Southland Tales.

17. George Clooney - Untitled Noah Baumbach Film - Baumbach movies are always worth paying attention to. Clooney appears to be the lead in the film, which has no plot details released yet. It is a coming of age drama.

18. Matthew McConaughey - The Lost Bus - It is interesting that he was one and done at the Oscars after winning in 2013. He has had a number of great performances, although he hasn’t really been trying to win Oscars since the McConaissance. Here, he gets the role as the bus driver trying to help during a wildfire. Sure, why not?

19. Bowen Yang - The Wedding Banquet - He has popped up in some major movies recently. Can he be serious enough to make a run at a Best Actor nomination? I wouldn’t entirely doubt it, but he will really need to prove something to the industry. I am also not 100% sure who the lead is in this thing.

20. Pedro Pascal - Eddington - This is an Ari Aster film with a stellar cast. It is about a New Mexico sheriff during the pandemic. I do not know if he is the lead necessarily, but it is time that he breaks through. Maybe Aster isn’t and never will be an Academy guy, but this is a neo-western. That might be good enough.

21. Timothee Chalamet - Marty Supreme - This is a period comedy film by Josh Safdie (yes, they split up for films this year) about a ping-pong player. It is said to have the intensity of Uncut Gems. Chalamet is box office and awards gold right now. If he wins this year for A Complete Unknown, then this becomes even less likely of an awards performance.

22. Ethan Hawke - Blue Moon - This is another Linklater project in which he reunites with his Me and Orson Welles writer. Hawke plays Lorenz Hart (of Rodgers and Hart) who struggles with alcoholism as he is trying to open Oklahoma!. Hawke has never been nominated for Best Actor.

23. Denzel Washington - High and Low - This is a remake of the Kurosawa film and directed by Spike Lee. He’s Denzel Washington, so he is obviously going to be in the conversation. However, it is hard to get Oldboy out of my mind when Lee tried to remake a classic. We will see, but this is a juicy role if handled right.

24. Colin Farrell - A Big Bold Beautiful Journey - This is a movie directed by Kogonada. Farrell is part of the club now, so he should always be in the running. It is about two people who go on a journey. Kogonada previously worked with Farrell on After Yang. Farrell also has The Ballad of a Small Player, which is the new film by Edward Berger. Neither one is a sure thing, but together make for a body of work year to keep in the back of your mind.

25. Channing Tatum - Roofman - I know, I’m a fan. This is a Derek Cianfance biopic about famous rooftop robber Jeffrey Manchester in the late 90s. The cast is impressive. It has an October release date, and it has Paramount and Miramax behind it. Cianfrance has really never let me down.

26. Jesse Plemons - Bugonia - He is coming off a Cannes win for the last Lanthimos movie, and here he plays a conspiracy theorist hellbent on exposing a CEO as an alien. It sounds like something else, but these kinds of roles never make it all the way. At least he got this nomination a few years ago.



BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Jessie Buckley - Hamnet - I am confident that this will be her year. She is in two of my top four Best Picture contenders, and this is really a win prediction for both Hamnet and The Bride, where she plays the titular character. She was nominated previously in 2021, but this will quickly be seen as the year of Jessie Buckley. In Hamnet, she plays the wife of William Shakespeare, and the film is told completely from her perspective. I expect that to be the winning formula, but her huge year will only further boost her chances.

2. Renate Reinsve - Sentimental Value - She was snubbed for the previous Trier film, but here we have a role that sounds like something more easily accessible and probably a more likable character. She is becoming a more recognizable face in the US, which helps her cause here. The category placement is always iffy, but it sounds like she really should be the lead. If the film starts really knocking people out, she could be brought in by the sweep.

3. Emma Mackey - Ella McCay - The young BAFTA winner is the title character in James L Brooks’s return to film. She plays a young politician trying to juggle her responsibilities when she is tasked with taking over for her mentor. She has the chops to be one of our future leading ladies, and I think that starts right here.

4. Olivia Colman - Jimpa - Here, she plays a woman who has to reckon with her parenting when her child makes some choices she doesn’t necessarily like. It sounds like a very introspective role, which she isn’t exactly known for. I am like 70% sure she gets nominated for this. She also has The Roses, the Tony McNamara written remake of The War of the Roses. She always has a bunch of juicy projects coming out. It is Olivia Colman’s world, and we are just living in it.

5. Angelina LookingGlass - The Rivals of Amziah King - This is a film by the filmmaker behind the sleeper hit The Vast of Night (Andrew Patterson). It is about a young girl who leaves home and reunites with a past foster parent. LookingGlass will be giving her first performance here with support from Mattew McConaughey and Kurt Rusell. The Academy loves to pinpoint young actresses early on. I am really going for it here, though.

Others in contention

6. Daniela Lopez - The Wave - I am assuming this is the main character in the Sebastian Lelio feminist drama. It is her first role, which is always a plus with the Academy. They love finding their new young actresses. Lelio is a great director for his actors, so I feel pretty good about this one.

7. Sydney Sweeney - Untitled David Michod Film - Sweeney plays former professional boxer Christy Martin amid her rise and eventual attempted murder in Michod’s film. Audiences have warmed up to her talent recently, and I expect her to get nominated in the next 10 years. If this movie has the kind of critical acclaim as some of Michod’s past films, then this could be Sweeney’s ticket.

8. Alison Janney - Miss You, Love You - This is Oscar winner Jim Rash’s first solo directorial effort, and it is a drama about a widow who plans her husband’s funeral. Janney as the lead in a feature like this has my attention. I imagine this will be a very small film, but that is what the Academy goes for nowadays.

9. Amy Adams - At the Sea - Playing a character coming out of rehab will give her room to show off her chops and give her a legitimate chance at finally winning her Oscar. Kornel Mundruczo previously directed Vanessa Kirby to an Oscar nomination.

10. Cynthia Erivo - Wicked: For Good - How eager are the Academy members to start nominating the same performances twice? I would argue the actors have their best chance this year and they all get left off next year. It is extremely rare to see the same actor get the same character nominated twice. She will still pick up some precursors, but ultimately get left off. Unless that happens to her this year…in which case she could win next year.

11. Jodie Comer - The Last Disturbance of Madeline Hynde - This is a psychological thriller by Oscar winner Kenneth Branagh. Comer should get a nomination in the near future. The plot is being kept under wraps, but the Academy loves Branagh.

12. Tessa Thompson - Hedda - This is a Nia DaCosta film adaptation of the old stage play about the daughter of a general who is trapped in a marriage she doesn’t want. Thompson has proven her chops in recent years. Sometimes these kinds of dramas become hits.

13. Vanessa Kirby - Night Always Comes - This is a crime thriller by Benjamin Caron about a desperate woman in the Pacific Northwest trying to raise money. Kirby was just nominated a handful of years ago, but she has been under the radar since then. This outing could change that.

14. Jessica Chastain - Dreams - Michel Franco nearly took Memory to the Oscars a couple years ago. Here, he has Jessica Chastain back as a socialite who begins a romance with a Mexican ballet dancer. There is a lot of hype around this project, at least for the type of film it is. 

15. Julia Roberts - After the Hunt - This is a new Luca Guadagnino film about a college professor at a crossroads when an accusation is hurled at a colleague. Roberts is always welcomed back at the ceremony, but 2013 was the last time she earned a nom.

16. Margot Robbie - A Big Bold Beautiful Journey - She plays opposite Colin Farrell in Kogonada’s film. The only issue is that films by that director are really subtle and underplayed, so Robbie won’t be able to play it up as much as she usually does.

17. Sadie Sink - O'Dessa - Between things like Stranger Things and The Whale, she has become one of those younger actors who we are just waiting to have their big breakthrough. As the lead in this intriguing film, she will need to really blow us away for it to become reality. There are always those films like Winter’s Bone that break all the way through. I wouldn’t put it past Geremy Jasper’s sophomore effort.

18. Cate Blanchett - Black Bag - This is a new Steven Soderbergh movie about an intelligence agent accused of treason. It doesn’t really sound like Academy stuff, but it is possible. Blanchett can get nominated for anything, but recently her decisions have been questionable at best. Other than Tar.

19. Gaby Hoffman - The Mastermind - This is a film by Kelly Reichardt, another one of those indie directors waiting for their 2020 Chloe Zhao-esque breakthrough. Hoffman might be the lead in this? It is about an art theft during the Vietnam War. She is one of those faces who we all know and has been around since she was a child, but she has never had a film to bring her into the public consciousness.



BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Stellan Skarsgard - Sentimental Value - He has somehow never been nominated before, and he has somehow never worked with Joachim Trier, arguably our best Scandinavian director. He plays the estranged father figure trying to make a film with his daughter. He seems like the perfect actor to portray that kind of angry reclusive type. I almost want to call his nomination a lock if the film actually lives up to the hype.

2. Christian Bale - The Bride - He plays Frankenstein’s Monster in Maggie Gyllenhaal’s film. Bale is never the same in any movie. I expect an unrecognizable look and performance by one of our true chameleons. If the movie is a hit, then this is a lock for a nomination.

3. Benicio Del Toro - Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Film - It has been 22 years since his last nomination, and he is one of the best actors in the world. You don’t cast Benicio Del Toro unless there is something special there. Sight unseen and unknown, I actually feel really good about this.

4. Andrew Scott - Blue Moon - He is going to get nominated in the next few years. I took a stab at it being this year, where he plays Oscar Hammerstein II in Linklater’s film about Lorenz Hart. The movie could come and go like Me and Orson Welles did, but Christian McKay nearly got nominated for that. Let’s hope this one isn’t just buried on streaming somewhere.

5. Diego Luna - Kiss of the Spider Woman - He plays the Raul Julia part from the original. It is a juicy role, and Luna is an actor who has been around the awards game for a long time without ever getting singled out. Without being familiar with the music from the adaptation, I have to feel he can at least match what Julia did, which is a role that was confusingly overlooked in the 1985 version.

Others in contention

6. Al Pacino - Hand of Dante - He is going to have a really busy 2025. He has 6 movies in post production, all expected to be released this year. I have him getting nominated for Best Actor, so I had to just leave him off here. He presumably plays a mob boss in a promising adaptation. I can see him owning a Schnabel film, but I can’t quite get him in. I am also very intrigued by Easy Waltz by True Detective creator Nic Pizzolatto.

7. Jacob Elordi - Frankenstein - He is playing Frankenstein’s Monster, which is amazing casting. He has really come into his own as an actor after getting freed from Euphoria. It seems like directors are lining up to work with him. He is a subtle presence on screen, so I am beyond intrigued to see what he does with this.

8. Peter Dinklage - Lear Rex - He plays “The Fool” in this modern King Lear. I feel like he has a performance that has awards potential every other year, but he always comes up short. This could be different if the movie is really a sleeper hit.

9. Paul Mescal - Hamnet - The young superstar is playing William Shakepseare, which is a fascinating choice. It is a role that an actor can easily play up to whatever extent they want, but something tells me that under the umbrella of one of the most subtle directors out there Chloe Zhao that he will be restrained. He will be a regular in the awards game, especially since he became part of the club with Aftersun just a few years ago.

10. Jim Broadbent - Untitled Noah Baumbach Film - It’s been a while, hasn’t it? I don’t know what his role is in the secretive new feature from Baumbach.

11. Ed Harris - Huntington - He hasn’t been nominated since 2002, which seems crazy to me. I would imagine that he is the father of the family that Glen Powell’s character is trying to rip off, but it is unclear at this point. If this is one of those cranky old man roles, he could get one last nomination and a shot at that elusive win.

12. Takehiro Hira - Rental Family - Seeing him in the cast is what sold it for me. He is one of the regulars in Shogun, which is a TV awards sweeper this year. He was also in Gran Turismo. I don’t know what his role is, but it just stands out as the type of role that either steals the movie or gets brought along for the ride by the lead actor.

13. Matthew McConaughey - The Rivals of Amziah King - He plays a former foster parent who reunites with a child and mentors her when she leaves home. The movie is listed as a crime thriller, but it sounds more intimate than that. It is time he gets invited back between this and The Lost Bus.



BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Emily Mortimer - Untitled Noah Baumbach Film - She is also a co-writer on the film, which is intriguing. She has never been nominated for an Oscar, despite decades of memorable roles and movies. I never thought of her as a Baumbach actress, but I want to see where this goes. This is a really tough category to nail down a year out.

2. Zoe Kravitz - Caught Stealing - Sometimes, it just feels like time for an actor to break through. Aronofksy does wonders for his actors, even when the material is unapproachable. She plays a bartender who has an affair with Butler’s main character, which I feel like she could shine as. Every role she takes is interesting, and this could be her ticket.

3. Emma Stone - Bugonia - You can’t underestimate Emma Stone’s appeal and likability. She has this film, reuniting with the director who got her multiple nominations and a win. She plays a pharmaceutical company CEO suspected of being an alien. Sign me up! She also has Eddington, the Ari Aster film with a stacked cast. Aster is actually a producer on Bugonia as well. Basically, she is getting nominated this year.

4. Lily Gladstone - The Wedding Banquet - She is at that point where she is so beloved that she can do anything and get a nomination. I am not entirely sure of what her role will entail, but it sounds like she is the partner of the female lead. Good enough for me!

5. Son Ye-jin - No Other Choice - I am not familiar with this actress, but sometimes when you are doing predictions over a year in advance you just have to start piling up nominations for the top contenders. My rationale is that her part on IMDb has a character name listed, while no one else in the cast does aside from the lead. Her part must be important. Lock it in!

Others in contention

6. Mia Goth - Frankenstein - This seems like the most obvious director-actress pairing of the year. Mia Goth getting nominated for a Guillermo Del Toro take on Frankenstein just seems like it was meant to happen. She appears to be the lover of Victor Frankenstein, and I can only imagine how much of a ball she will have in that world.

7. Da'Vine Joy Randolph - Eternity - After her win for The Holdovers, it is only a matter of time before she gets that validation nomination. She could have a very similar trajectory to Octavia Spencer post-2011. This is a movie directed by David Freyne about people post death deciding how to spend eternity. She also has Atlantis coming out, which is a new Michel Gondry movie about the childhood of Pharrell Williams. Either project could break out and bring her back to the ceremony.

9. Ayo Edibiri - After the Hunt - She is seemingly everywhere right now. Her being united with Luca Guadagnino feels like a match made in movie heaven. It appears that she has the crucial supporting role in the film. Is this an approachable Luca film or a Bones and All kind of Luca film? We will see.

10. Regina Hall - O'Dessa - I don’t know what her role entails, but she has had several roles recently that I’ve had my eye on. If O’Dessa is a hit, then she seems like one who would be singled out in a supporting role. She is also in PTA’s film, which could definitely be her ticket as well. Basically, since Support the Girls in 2018, I have just been waiting to pull the trigger on predicting her for a nomination. I couldn’t quite get there this year, but I’m just saying.

11. Taylor Russell - Hope - This is a thriller by South Korean auteur Na Hong-jin (The Wailing), and it is about a discovery on the outskirts of town that causes the townspeople to fight for survival. It has Alicia Vikander and Michael Fassbender, but I am most intrigued by Russell’s involvement in the project. After Waves in 2019, it was clear that she was going to be a threat in the awards game. Maybe that starts this year.

12. America Ferrera - The Lost Bus - She plays a teacher who is trying to help during a wildfire in Paul Greengrass’s thriller. She is fresh off her first Oscar nomination in 2023. If she starts getting the types of roles she is born to play (like this one), then she could have a mini Amy Adams-type run and get several Supporting Actress nominations here pretty quickly.

13. Jamie Lee Curtis - Ella McCay - She just won for a ridiculous performance, and here she gets what I can only assume is the role as the governor mentor to the main character. She has really come into her own as the somewhat unlikable supporting character in some pretty major projects. Her best performance ever was in The Bear in 2024. Let’s see if she can stay hot.

14. Hope Davis - The Mastermind - Doesn’t it feel like she should have been nominated before? I don’t know what her part is in this, but I am just putting it out there. Sometimes that works. I start the Oscar buzz for several candidates each January.

15. Rachel Brosnahan - Lear Rex - I am really just throwing darts with some of these, but she plays Regan in this Shakespeare adaptation. She has the goods to be a great film actor. If she has the right material and backing, then she could get boosted into the awards game.



BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

1. Sentimental Value - Joachim Trier, Eskil Vogt - This was a tough one. It seems likely if the Trier film is winning Best Picture that the screenplay would be an easy award to add to its tally. However, doesn’t it feel like PTA’s time? Sentimental Value will have all the sophisticated writerly stuff that will make it an easy sell, and this writing combo has been nominated before. It’s a close call, but I’ll be safe and predict that the Academy and everyone else will just be disarmed by this film.

2. Untitled Paul Thas Anderson Film - Paul Thomas Anderson - At some point, he will get his Oscar. He was even nominated for the baffling Inherent Vice, so this nomination is a stone cold lock. Can he unseat the Best Picture favorite? It doesn’t happen very often, but if anyone is going to do it, and if anyone deserves it, it’s PTA.

3. Jimpa - Sophia Hyde, Matthew Cormack - The screenplay for Hyde’s previous film was a perfect example of showing what you bring to the table. This movie sounds like a crowd pleaser, while also being challenging. And with those two leads speaking your words, I expect this to be a yearlong conversation starter.

4. At the Sea - Kornel Mundruczo, Kata Weber - Under different circumstances, Pieces of a Woman could have been a screenplay nominee. This movie sounds like another character based drama, and if it is as good as I expect it to be, then this could become a pretty clear nomination. This is the same writing duo that brought us White God, along with the other notable Mundruczo films.

5. Arva - Laszlo Nemes, Clara Royer - This is such a bizarre list. This has a really compelling story, but it just might not be the kind of quirkiness that is typically needed to get nominated in the Original Screenplay category. Movies like Belfast are rare in that sense. It might just be too good to ignore.

Others in contention

6. Ella McCay - James L Brooks - He has been nominated 3 times for his screenplays. Political comedies really need to be sharp in order to get singled out for their writing. How sharp is the writer after taking the last 15 years off after a baffling flop about a baseball love triangle? We will see. I thought he hung it up after that.

7. The Entertainment System Is Down - Ruben Ostlund - He was probably closer than we would like to admit to winning in this category in 2022. The movie will be a showcase for the writer, which is about a bunch of passengers on a 17 hour flight fighting boredom and having to interact with each other. I could see this playing really well with the Academy members.

8. Untitled Noah Baumbach Film - Noah Baumbach, Emily Mortimer - I do not know what the movie is about, but Baumbach has become a regular at the Oscars. Maybe he can become a Wes Anderson and start to get some coattail nominations for his co-writers.

9. Marty Supreme - Josh Safdie, Ronald Bronstein - Josh Safdie gets the brothers’ frequent collaborator Bronstein to work on his film. This is a strange project, but I cannot wait. It has A24 behind it and a Christmas release. Give it to me now!

10. The Captive - Alejandro Amenabar, Alejandro Hernandez - Movies about writers should be an easy sell. The movie really needs to make waves in the Best Picture race for this to become reality. It is really a wait and see thing with this film about Miguel de Cervantes.

11. Eddington - Ari Aster - The movie has potential, but I thought Beau Is Afraid did as well. To get Joaquin Phoenix, Emma Stone, and Austin Butler to support Pedro Pascal in his movie proves that he must be doing something right. I expect if he is ever going to get a nomination, it would be in this category.

12. The Phoenician Scheme - Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola - This is simply out of respect for Anderson. His last couple films have been dead on arrival. This is an espionage thriller comedy about a family business. The cast is loaded, which is to be expected. If it is one of the good ones, then he and Coppola will be in contention once again.

13. Rental Family - Hikari, Stephen Blahut - Movies like this ride a fine line. It can either be culturally misguided, or it can be prescient. It has Oren Moverman as an Executive Producer on the film, which gives it some clout in the US. It will be interesting to see where this movie eventually premieres.

14. Miss You, Love You - Jim Rash - Aside from his Oscar win for The Descendants, he hasn’t had much success. Here, he sheds Nat Faxon and tells his own story. His style is really quirky, but I can see it playing well in this category.

15. After the Hunt - Nora Garrett - She is more known as an actress, and this is her first screenplay. Not bad to have Guadagnino swipe it up and put it out there at the peak of his powers. The cast is pretty amazing. If this gets a Cannes premiere, then it could really start a hype train.

16. Black Bag - David Koepp - He is mostly known for spy thrillers, and this sounds like one of those, just with Soderbergh at the helm. It will really need to be killer for this to work out. It is currently scheduled to be released in March.

17. Nouvelle Vague - Richard Linklater, Holly Gent, Laetitia Masson, Vincent Palmo Jr, Michele Petin - Isn’t it time that a Linklater project gets some hype again? Making a movie about the filming of Breathless was not something I anticipated coming across his desk…but I like it. Zoey Deutch plays Jean Seberg. There are quite a few writers involved, but that doesn’t always mean that there are issues in the production.

18. Warfare - Alex Garland, Ray Mendoza - Some movies are mentioned here just because they are unexplainable. This is a docudrama directed by Garland and Mendoza. It is the story of Mendoza’s experiences in the Iraq War as a Navy Seal. It could be like 15:17 to Paris, or it could be something different. After Civil War, I am eagerly anticipating whatever Garland has his sights on.

19. The Mastermind - Kelly Reichardt - Her best chances at a nomination in the past were probably Wendy and Lucy and First Cow. This sounds way more accessible than those. In addition to Gaby Hoffman and Hope Davis, the movie also has Josh O’Connor and John Magaro. I really want to see how this develops. I hope it gets done in time for the fall festivals.

20. A Big Bold Beautiful Journey - Seth Reiss - Reiss previously co-wrote The Menu, which was a big surprise hit. Here, it appears that he just was able to write whatever he wanted and got a wonderful visual director to put it on screen. It is scheduled to come out in May, so we will know relatively soon if this one has the goods or not.

21. Sinners - Ryan Coogler - This is a spring release about twin brothers who find that their hometown is now run by supernatural forces. It is a step out for Coogler, but he can do anything. One of these horror thrillers breaks through each year, usually from the first six months of the year. It could be this one.

22. Roofman - Derek Cianfrance, Kirt Gunn - I have enough crime dramas in the running this year, but I have to mention this movie. At some point Cianfrance will have a bigger Oscar movie. Can it be one starring Channing Tatum? Maybe…

23. O'Dessa - Geremy Jasper - Patti Cake$ was such a good film, I have to think that he has more of that kind of thing in him. He would need a Barry Jenkins kind of trajectory to get in this category, but it isn’t exactly impossible, right? Just covering all the bases.



BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

1. Hamnet - Chloe Zhao, Maggie O'Farrell - This is the interesting one since it is the one award that Zhao didn’t come away with for Nomadland. Writing a movie about Shakespearean times is always an easy sell for the writers branch and the Academy in general. If the movie is as interesting as it sounds, then this could be one of those no-brainer wins that we see coming months out. Or a year out in my case.

2. The Life of Chuck - Mike Flanagan - I had this as the winner when I did my post-festival predictions for the 2025 Oscars, but the enthusiasm can only come back down to earth with all the time we have to forget about the movie. It will need to really blow away and charm audiences to get back in frontrunner status.

3. Huntington - John Patton Ford - This is a remake of King Hearts and Coronets, which is intriguing. It is yet another nail in the coffin of Hollywood original ideas, but here we are. There are quite a few remakes coming out this year, and this is the least obvious one. It is a fascinating second feature idea for Ford, and I like his chances to potentially be the next Chazelle, and that could start with a big nomination right here.

4. The Wedding Banquet - Andrew Ahn, James Schamus - Schamus was a writer on the original version with Ang Lee and a frequent collaborator of the two-time Oscar winner, so this movie has the blessing and pedigree almost immediately. There is usually at least one comedy in the group, it is just not usually in the Adapted Screenplay category. I am confident in this film, though.

5. The Bride - Maggie Gyllenhaal - She has been nominated in this category before. This is a tough one though with the source material so well known and that there was a truly great version of the story 90 years ago. However, she is already part of the club, and the Academy doesn’t like the optics of leaving their favorite films out of the screenplay categories. It is a musical, however. I feel like I am already wrong putting this here, but I also can’t justify taking it out.

Others in contention

6. Caught Stealing - Charlie Huston - This is a movie based on his own book, which is never the easiest sell for the Academy. I am pretty high on its chances in several categories, so the screenplay love should come with it. I am unfamiliar with his work, but seeing what Aronofsky has done with adaptations in the past, I am hopeful.

7. No Other Choice - Park Chan-wook, Lee Kyoung-mi, Jahye Lee, Don McKellar - This is an adaptation of The Ax. It sounds absolutely nuts, but that is usually something that would be rewarded as an original screenplay. The Adapted screenplay category seems to always side more with sophisticated material as opposed to creativity. Still, if this movie is really a top 5 contender like I am predicting, then this is way too low.

8. The Lost Bus - Paul Greengrass, Brad Inglesby - This is really just a reflection of the fact that I think the movie has the goods. Inglesby has never really written a great film, although some had the aspirations. If the movie is good enough, then it won’t really matter for a movie like this. Greengrass’s screenplays have never exactly been the selling point of his films, either. Just watch out for this movie!

9. Bugonia - Will Tracy - He is the co-writer of The Menu and has won several Emmys for things like Succession and Last Week Tonight. The movie is a comedy sci-fi remake, which doesn’t sound like Academy stuff. But it is directed by Yorgos Lanthimos. That is probably enough to keep him in the discussion until nomination morning.

10. The Roses - Tony McNamara - He has certainly proven himself as a go-to writer for semi prestigious projects. Here, he isn’t working with Lanthimos, but he has Jay Roach at the helm. But he has Olivia Colman and Benedict Cumberbatch speaking his words. If he is taking on a project like this, then I imagine it has to be something special. 

11. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery - Rian Johnson - The plot is unknown, but this is the third film in the Benoit Blanc series. The first two were nominated for screenplay Oscars. Can this pull a Before Midnight? Probably.

12. Hand of Dante - Julian Schnabel, Louise Kugelberg - Movies about writers and literature are always an easy sell. This is actually a really stacked category. I can’t really put this any higher, even though I am really high on its Best Picture chances. This is the same writing duo who brought us At Eternity’s Gate.

13. Frankenstein - Guillermo Del Toro - Screenplay is the one thing he didn’t win for The Shape of Water. This is an uphill climb to a nomination, to be honest. He didn’t get considered for Pinocchio for his script either, even though it was an inventive way of telling the story. He needs this film to be a contender to win Best Picture for him to get nominated in this category.

14. Klara and the Sun - Dahvi Waller - This is the first screenplay by Waller, who has worked on some prestige TV over the last 20 years. This is directed by Taika Waititi, and it is about a robot who is created to prevent loneliness and tries to save a family. Waititi is an acquired taste, but one of his weirdest flicks won in this category. We will see how much of his influence will be felt on this project.

15. The Running Man - Edgar Wright, Michael Bacall - The original was not an Oscar thing at all, but here we have Edgar Wright remaking it. That is a fascinating concept, especially seeing where his career has gone in the last 10 years or so. It is about a dystopian United States set in 2025, starring Glen Powell, Josh Brolin, and Katy O’Brien. Sign me up!

16. The Ballad of a Small Player - Rowan Joffe - This is the Edward Berger film made for Netflix about a high stakes gambler who gets a chance at salvation. Joffe previously wrote The American. Colin Farrell and Tilda Swinton are in it. I’d vote for that.



There you have it! What movies are you most looking forward to in 2025? What is your early favorite for Best Picture? Did I overcorrect on the international filmmaker front? (The answer is yes) Comment below!