The Oscar nominations came this morning bright and early! There were a bunch of surprises and snubs as usual, but overall we could have seen most of this coming. When the main contenders are all spectacles, the below-the-line categories tend to get predictable. We had this also happen with the 2015 films. Here are my initial reactions, and keep reading below for my Coolest First-Time Nominees and Biggest Snubs! The nominations leader was Emilia Perez with 13! Not bad for one of the worst movies of the year…
BEST PICTURE
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Perez
I’m Still Here
Nickel Boys
The Substance
Wicked
Predicted: 8 for 10
Reactions: Ok, this is pretty crazy! Nickel Boys I knocked off at the last minute for September 5 after getting in at PGA. Then there’s I’m Still Here. I knew it was a threat in some categories, but it was not one of the 2 or 3 main international Best Picture contenders coming in. I never considered it for this spot. I had A Real Pain getting in, of course, with its two above-the-line lock nominations. This is pretty interesting. The trickle-down effect of this category will be seen in the categories below. I love that there is no consensus here. There are 6 movies that could feasibly win here. That never happens anymore.
Preliminary prediction: Anora
BEST DIRECTOR
Sean Baker - Anora
Brady Corbet - The Brutalist
James Mangold - A Complete Unknown
Jacques Audiard - Emilia Perez
Coralie Fargeat - The Substance
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: Ouch. Well, here we have some interesting developments. Nickel Boys somehow got nominated for Picture without the best aspect of the film, its directing. It was replaced by James Mangold, which absolutely puts A Complete Unknown in the Best Picture winning contender category. Coralie Fargeat also gets in as yet another foreign director. They really can’t contain themselves. I had Edward Berger getting in, who was snubbed for the second time in 3 years for arguably a top 2 Best Picture contender. I really don’t get that.
Preliminary prediction: Brady Corbet
BEST ACTOR
Adrien Brody - The Brutalist
Timothee Chalamet - A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo - Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes - Conclave
Sebastian Stan - The Apprentice
Predicted: 5 for 5
Reactions: This turned out the way I thought. They overlooked Daniel Craig, but I feel like it is only a matter of time before he breaks through. This is the first nomination for Fiennes since 1996, as well as Brody’s first since his win back in 2002. Without the televised awards shows to go on, this could still be anyone’s award.
Preliminary prediction: Adrien Brody
BEST ACTRESS
Cynthia Erivo - Wicked
Karla Sofia Gascon - Emilia Perez
Mikey Madison - Anora
Demi Moore - The Substance
Fernanda Torres - I’m Still Here
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I knew I was going to go 4 for 5. I had Marianne Jean-Baptiste getting in for the best performance of the year, but I had Gascon getting snubbed. It was a stab, and it backfired. Gascon is the first openly trans actor to be nominated in an acting category at the Oscars. I fear that this will eventually lead to the end of gendered categories. As a Spirit Awards voter, I cannot express just how annoying that is. Anyway, this is a compelling race. The two Golden Globe winners are here. With the Best Picture nomination for I’m Still Here, this becomes a 3 horse race.
Preliminary prediction: Demi Moore
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Yura Borisov - Anora
Kieran Culkin - A Real Pain
Edward Norton - A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce - The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong - The Apprentice
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: So Jeremy Strong took the last spot from Clarence Maclin. That was really the only spot up for grabs, and they went with the veteran actor who is at the height of his powers right now. There’s a little bit of Bryan Cranston getting nominated for Trumbo in this nomination. Who knows if he will return to the ceremony or not, but this is the first chance to nominate him for film (Culkin too). This is a cool category. Congratulations on your first nomination, Guy Pearce. LONG overdue.
Preliminary prediction: Kieran Culkin
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Monica Barbaro - A Complete Unknown
Ariana Grande - Wicked
Felicity Jones - The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini - Conclave
Zoe Saldana - Emilia Perez
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I had Maraget Qualley sneaking in over Felicity Jones, who was snubbed at SAG. I also missed Barbaro in favor of now twice-snubbed Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson). This was probably the expected 5, but I wasn’t ever going to get there. Sometimes the acting categories are just a chance to give unmemorable performances a nod for the Best Picture favorites.
Preliminary prediction: Zoe Saldana
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anora - Sean Baker
The Brutalist - Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold
A Real Pain - Jesse Eisenberg
September 5 - Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum, Alex David
The Substance - Coralie Fargeat
Predicted: 5 for 5
Reactions: This is cool to get 5 for 5, especially when two of them were snubbed for Best Picture nominations. I would like to think this is Sean Baker’s award, but Fargeat won Best Screenplay at Cannes, and they both failed to win at the Globes in favor of Conclave. This might not be a done deal.
Preliminary prediction: Anora
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
A Complete Unknown - James Mangold, Jay Cocks
Conclave - Peter Straughan
Emilia Perez - Jacques Audiard, Thomas Bidegain, Lea Mysius, Nicolas Livecchi
Nickel Boys - RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes
Sing Sing - Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John “Divine G” Whitfield
Predicted: 5 for 5
Reactions: I landed with these five. I’m surprised I’m Still Here missed, seeing how it over-performed elsewhere. In the few days prior to the nominations getting announced, I had thought about Mark Wahlberg getting snubbed for Best Actor for The Fighter because he was getting nominated as a producer on the film, and considered dropping Maclin from Supporting Actor because he was locked into getting his writing nomination. I screwed that up, but I like that he is still getting his due. This is a pretty loaded category. The bias against musical screenplays took a backseat this year, apparently.
Preliminary prediction: Conclave
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Brutalist
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Perez
Maria
Nosferatu
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I had A Complete Unknown and Nickel Boys getting in over Emilia Perez and Maria. They went with the bigger productions here, and Maria showed some life after some bad snubs in this category and otherwise. I don’t know what Emilia Perez is doing here.
Preliminary prediction: The Brutalist
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Brutalist
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Nosferatu
Wicked
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I had Gladiator II getting in over Conclave. Way back in January 2024, I had Nosferatu being a contender for the major awards because I saw the craft category love coming its way. I still don’t know why I was wrong, but at least this justifies my suspicions a bit.
Preliminary prediction: The Brutalist
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Gladiator II
Nosferatu
Wicked
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I had Beetlejuice Beetlejuice and Dune: Part Two in for Conclave and A Complete Unknown. Ok, so Conclave gets in everywhere, just like All Quiet on the Western Front did, and yet Berger can’t get a nomination. Ok…
Preliminary prediction: Wicked
BEST SOUND
A Complete Unknown
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Perez
Wicked
The Wild Robot
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I had Gladiator II in over The Wild Robot. That is a rare nomination for an animated movie. The rest of this is pretty predictable. Dune took this 3 years ago, and the other 3 are musicals. It’s probably still Dune?
Preliminary prediction: Dune: Part Two
BEST FILM EDITING
Anora
The Brutalist
Conclave
Emilia Perez
Wicked
Predicted: 2 for 5
Reactions: I had Challengers, Dune: Part Two, and September 5 in for The Brutalist, Emilia Perez, and Wicked. That is a huge sign of strength for all three of those films, as well as proof that the voters didn’t watch September 5 and didn’t understand Challengers. This is not a typical Editing category. We have a 3.5 hour movie and a couple bloated musicals. All these movies are 2+ hours long. I’ll predict the shortest one.
Preliminary prediction: Conclave
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Alien: Romulus
Better Man
Dune: Part Two
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Wicked
Predicted: 5 for 5
Reactions: I took a stab with Wicked, and it paid off! This is an interesting group. It isn’t the most obvious group of nominees. I hope Better Man really gets some looks here. That was really the best visual effects job of 2024.
Preliminary prediction: Dune: Part Two
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
A Different Man
Emilia Perez
Nosferatu
The Substance
Wicked
Predicted: 5 for 5
Reactions: Going 5 for 5 here is unbelievably rare for me. This just came down to what the most obvious makeup jobs were, aside from Dune, which I suspected would underperform. I really don’t know what to go with here. I can see an argument for all 5 of them.
Preliminary prediction: The Substance
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Elton John: Never Too Late - “Never Too Late”
Emilia Perez - “El Mal”
Emilia Perez - “Mi Camino”
Sing Sing - “Like a Bird”
The Six Triple Eight - The Journey
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I had Challengers and The Wild Robot in over the Elton John song and Sing Sing, which is a song I don’t know. This is always made a little easier knowing one of the nominations is going to whatever the hell Diane Warren worked on. One of the Emilia Perez songs is winning here. I’ll go with the one with the big dance number.
Preliminary prediction: “El Mal” - Emilia Perez
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Brutalist
Conclave
Emilia Perez
Wicked
The Wild Robot
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I had Horizon and Challengers (completely shut out) in for Wicked and The Wild Robot. I don’t understand how the musicals are even fully eligible, but whatever. There are some real towering scores in here otherwise. I’ll go with the one who didn’t just win 2 years ago, even though he is a newcomer.
Preliminary prediction: The Brutalist
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Black Box Diaries
No Other Land
Porcelain War
Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
Sugarcane
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I had Daughters and Dahomey in over Sugarcane (I’m an idiot) and Black Box Diaries. This could be a competitive race. I know No Other Land is a heavy favorite, but it isn’t what they typically go for. I’ll stick with that for now.
Preliminary prediction: No Other Land
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
Emilia Perez
Flow
I’m Still Here
The Girl with the Needle
The Seed of the Sacred Fig
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I had The Girl with the Needle snubbed after predicting the same for its Cinematography fate, and I also missed Flow in favor of Kneecap and Vermiglio. I don’t feel too bad about that. The Flow nomination is huge…and really weird considering there are no words in the movie. I guess the category name change finally made a difference. The Best Picture nomination for I’m Still Here does bring some uncertainty to this race, but I need to see Torres keep winning to fully get there.
Preliminary prediction: Emilia Perez
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Flow
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
The Wild Robot
Predicted: 5 for 5
Reactions: This was the only way this could ever go. Nothing to see here.
Preliminary prediction: Flow
Overall predictions: 80/105; 76.19% (74.29% in 2024)
Without the last 5 categories: 63/80; 78.75% (78.75% in 2024)
On the Big 8 categories: 37/45; 82.22% (88.44% in 2024)
Well, I can’t complain about that! I did about the same, and I could have improved in the Big 8 categories if I really went with my gut. Not too bad! I am the Oscar Guru of the group for a reason!
10 COOLEST FIRST-TIME NOMINEES
1. Guy Pearce
2. Demi Moore
3. Sean Baker
4. Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold
5. Jacques Audiard
6. Kieran Culkin
7. Isabella Rossellini
8. Zoe Saldana
9. Sebastian Stan
10. Clarence Maclin
Other notable first-timers include: Fernanda Torres, Mikey Madison, Karla Sofia Gascon, Yura Borisov, Jeremy Strong, Ariana Grande, Monica Barbaro, Coralie Fargeat, among others
10 WORST SNUBS
1. Challengers in all categories, especially Best Original Score
2. A Real Pain for Best Picture
3. Marianne Jean-Baptiste for Best Actress
4. Kneecap for Best International Film
5. RaMell Ross for Best Director
6. Angelina Jolie for Best Actress
7. Civil War in all categories, especially Best Sound
8. Edward Berger for Best Director
9. Will & Harper for Best Documentary
10. Horizon: An American Saga - Chapter 1 for Best Original Score
IF THERE WERE 5 NOMINEES…
1. Anora
2. The Brutalist
3. Conclave
4. Wicked
5. A Complete Unknown
That is all I have for today! Every year the precursors mean less and less. Rules keep getting broken, bad movies rise to the top, and international filmmakers are beloved more than American filmmakers. This is the final year before we get a new award (Best Casting!). I can’t wait to go 1 for 5 on that next year!
Also, the Coolest First-Time Nominee list keeps getting longer and longer. I will have to remember for next year that they aren’t interested in nominating past winners and nominees as much anymore. It is all about finding the next crop of filmmakers and actors.
Thanks for reading.
Stay tuned for our 17th Annual Oscar Challenge!
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