2015 Oscar Predictions: Final (Major Categories)

We have arrived at the end of Oscar predictions, and we still have a lot of uncertainty in the major categories. The winners are becoming clearer, but the fun of Oscar season is really who gets nominated and what movies are recognized. The Best Picture 9 (probably) is still wide open, with the Producers Guild recently giving us the best idea of how it might shake out, but we still really don’t know. Selma was a frontrunner in many categories (we thought), but it got shut out at the SAG and somehow missed the top 10 at the PGA. A movie with such pedigree and glowing reviews getting ignored is a little head-scratching. I think its threat to win Best Picture is over. This leaves the door open for the year’s best film Boyhood, as well as underdog Birdman and wild card Gone Girl to take the top prize. It is going to be interesting to see the announcement on Thursday, January 15^th, and not just these categories, but the ARTS AND TECHS nominees as well. Check out my final predictions below:

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

1. Gone Girl – Gillian Flynn – It is still the frontrunner, withstanding pushes by much more Oscar-begging films. The box office and reviews should keep it up there for the duration.

2. The Imitation Game – Graham Moore – It is a tight script and a really interesting movie. This is the film’s best chance to land a significant Oscar, but it still has some work to do. It needs to take the BAFTA to have a shot.

3. Inherent Vice – Paul Thomas Anderson – Even though the movie is totally weird and not typical awards stuff at all, PTA has a pass with the Academy, even though they snubbed his The Master script despite the screenplay leading to 3 acting noms.

4. The Theory of Everything – Anthony McCarten – The screenplay is not the main achievement in the movie, but when you have a clear top 5 ranking for the year, the nominations come flooding your way, which almost always includes your writer getting swept in.

5. Whiplash – Damien Chazelle – The Sundance winner had a razor-sharp screenplay and has constantly built steam since its big win last January. The recent switch to Adapted (its rightful spot) might hurt its chances a tad, but Chazelle still sits in a strong position.

Others in contention

6. Still Alice – Richard Glatzer, Wash Westmoreland – This would be a bit of a surprise, but with the performances and previous strong work by the writers (2006 indie darling Quinceanera), it appears that this movie can go nowhere but up.
7. Wild – Nick Hornby – The performances are getting all of the publicity for Wild. Hornby is a past nominee for An Education, which might help his cause, but how much did the screenplay do for this film, really?

8. American Sniper – James Dean Hall – The movie has yet to really be seen yet, but its buzz is rising in all categories. Eastwood’s film could pull a last minute shocker and get mentioned all over the Academy’s lineup.

9. Unbroken – Joel Coen, Ethan Coen, William Nicholson, Richard LaGravenese – I won’t quite give up on this movie yet. The Coens’ strangest work A Serious Man even got its screenplay nod, so even though this movie underwhelmed most, it still cannot be forgotten.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

1. Birdman – Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Nicolas Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Armando Bo – This is about the most competitive I have seen this category in a long time. This movie is one of the main contenders for the top prize, and the screenplay is really what sold it. Inarritu deserves an Oscar at some point, and this has to be his best shot yet. 

2. The Grand Budapest Hotel – Wes Anderson, Hugo Guinness – The indie record-breaker has sustained its buzz all the way into awards season, which is really surprising. Anderson films are in the mix consistently, but not since The Royal Tenenbaums has his films felt like such a threat in so many categories.

3. Boyhood – Richard Linklater – It is a little weird having the Best Picture frontrunner down at #3 for screenplay, but the other films were just showier and more obvious screenplay achievements. I am not counting it out, but it has a bit of an uphill climb, especially when Linklater probably walks away with 2 wins anyway.

4. Mr. Turner – Mike Leigh – Leigh is always getting nominated. Even Another Year came out of nowhere at the last moment. It is getting in, but I couldn’t really tell you why looking at what is being left out.

5. Nightcrawler – Dan Gilroy – This movie has been rising furiously, and I have read about similarities to Crash with its timing and campaign. This seems like a script that would normally get in without an issue, but Original Screenplay is incredibly stacked this year.

Others in contention

6. Selma – Paul Webb – This seems like it would have been a shoo-in a couple weeks ago, but it keeps getting ignored by the important precursors. Maybe it really isn’t all that good after all.

7. Interstellar – Christopher Nolan, Jonathan Nolan – It made a boatload of money and had some really interesting ideas, and that is usually enough for a screenplay nom. There were holes in the logic of the movie, however, which may have become apparent to voters and cause them to leave Nolan off for once.

8. Foxcatcher – E. Max Frye, Dan Futterman – The screenplay was not really a showcase, but it did have a Capote-esque vibe to it. It needs a big win or two to really get back in this particular race.

9. A Most Violent Year – J.C. Chandor – The National Board of Review winner seems to be sputtering down the stretch, but audiences really haven’t seen it yet. Chandor is 2 for 2 with his films, and this appears to be his 3^rd hit, but its lack of serious buzz is a little disconcerting.

10. Locke – Steven Knight – If Locke can be remembered somehow, then a screenplay nod is not out of the question. It would be the prestige nomination, which has previously been given to Margin Call and The Messenger, two that were later proven to be amazing out-of-nowhere noms by the Academy.

11. Dear White People – Justin Simien – This would be an In the Loop-type of nomination if it were to get in. The satire is always something that plays well in this category, and the movie did make some waves in indie markets.

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Patricia Arquette – Boyhood – She is the clear frontrunner and the heart of the movie. She has been under-the-radar her entire film career and has really only garnered awards attention for her TV show Medium. It is about time she gets her due.

2. Emma Stone – Birdman – She has been in and around awards movies for a few years, and she finally has that part that got her singled out. Well…kinda. The whole cast essentially was singled out.

3. Meryl Streep – Into the Woods – She is Meryl, and she was in a movie. This is a no-brainer nomination, but the world just might end if she wins.

4. Jessica Chastain – A Most Violent Year – She is becoming a regular at the Oscars and rightfully so. She is one of the best actresses working today, and she had 4 buzzed roles that she nailed in 2014.

5. Tilda Swinton – Snowpiercer – It would be a strange nomination, but these are the types of roles that get recognized. The Critics Choice nomination helps, and even though the movie was a bit of a flop, it has still been cited consistently throughout the season.

Others in contention

6. Keira Knightley – The Imitation Game – She always seems to be just on the outside looking in, and while this is her best work in some 7 years, she still feels like a snub candidate.

7. Naomi Watts – St. Vincent / Birdman – She got the surprise SAG nom for the former, and the latter is the major Oscar player. I wouldn’t be too shocked if either hit.

8. Carrie Coon – Gone Girl – How much do they love the movie? I always thought she was one of the standouts, sort of this movie’s Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone). If the movie has a real shot at the major awards, then she could be a beneficiary.

9. Laura Dern – Wild – Her buzz has quieted, as has the buzz for the film. It still feels like a nomination-caliber role, though.

10. Kristen Stewart – Still Alice – If they want a running partner for Julianne Moore, then why not one of the biggest names in Hollywood?

11. Rene Russo – Nightcrawler – She has never been nominated, or even close for that matter, but her role in one of the most talked about movies of 2014 has her right in the running for that first nom.

Annual Tommy Lee Jones – In the Valley of Elah Shocker Nomination: Marisa Tomei – Love Is Strange

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. J.K. Simmons – Whiplash – It is hard to see a scenario where he loses. It is a frightening, career-changing performance for the veteran character actor.

2. Ethan Hawke – Boyhood – The 3-time nominee is really the only challenge that Simmons may have. If they really love Boyhood, which they probably will, then the truest character in the film will have a shot.

3. Edward Norton – Birdman – It appears that Norton will finally stop his nomination drought with one of the most difficult roles to play from 2014.

4. Mark Ruffalo – Foxcatcher – He is a lock, as he should be. His character was the most believable in the movie, and he became the emotional core of the deeply emotional crime drama.

5. Robert Duvall – The Judge – He is really the only one of the 5 that might be in jeopardy, even though he has gotten cited everywhere. His movie was just so poor that the ground on which he stands seems a tad unstable.

Others in contention

6. Takamasa Ishihara – Unbroken – The Academy loves their real life ruthless villains, and the head of a WWII Japanese camp is about as cold as you can get. He kills the role, and he could find himself with a nomination if the movie breaks through.

7. Josh Brolin – Inherent Vice – He is the only one other than the top 5 with a major nomination (Critics Choice, who nominate 6), so he has to be in the mix.

8. Christoph Waltz – Big Eyes – His movie has no buzz, except for Amy Adams. Can he pull another nomination? I wouldn’t put it past him.

Annual Tommy Lee Jones – In the Valley of Elah Shocker Nomination: John Goodman – The Gambler

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Julianne Moore – Still Alice – She appears to be unstoppable at this point. It is about time she finally wins one.

2. Rosamund Pike – Gone Girl – She appears to be the Sharon Stone (Casino) of 2014. She will go in with a shot to win, but she is up against an overdue performer who probably cannot be denied.

3. Felicity Jones – The Theory of Everything – She is the equivalent to what Reese Witherspoon was in 2005, the borderline supporting co-lead who actually stole the show from the protagonist. She is probably the best of the nominees, but she can’t win…can she?

4. Reese Witherspoon – Wild – She is beloved, yet she has somehow not gotten her validation nomination yet. This is her chance.

5. Amy Adams – Big Eyes – She has been snubbed a few times, but the Oscars love her too much. Her odds to get in are not great, but there are always a couple pleasant surprises.

Others in contention

6. Jennifer Aniston – Cake – It would be heartbreaking for Aniston if she gets left off, but that is what happens to performances like these. At least we know she is serious about her movies now. Her nom will come…and it still might be this year.

7. Marion Cotillard – Two Days, One Night – The Dardennes have not been treated well by the Academy, but Cotillard is a transcendent talent. I could see her going all the way to the ceremony.

8. Shailene Woodley – The Fault in Our Stars – She is a budding talent, and her movie had a big time box office. Can she defy the odds and take the young adult novel adaptation to the Oscars?

9. Scarlett Johansson – Under the Skin – The movie is probably too out-there to get nominated for anything, but when is she going to get her due? She is doing some of the best work in the industry right now.

Annual Tommy Lee Jones – In the Valley of Elah Shocker Nomination: Hilary Swank – The Homesman

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Michael Keaton – Birdman – There really can’t be another frontrunner at this point, but we will see once the televised awards shows start happening. Can he really go from universally snubbed to easy winner?

2. Jake Gyllenhaal – Nightcrawler – His crazy performance is becoming more of a sure-fire nomination. Can he win the thing? There are few actors who have come into their own as suddenly and clearly as Gyllenhaal in the past few years.

3. Eddie Redmayne – The Theory of Everything – In terms of physical performances, Redmayne’s ranks with some of the best I have seen in a long time. He embodies Hawking and should coast to a nomination.

4. Benedict Cumberbatch – The Imitation Game – He is certainly on thinner ice than Redmayne, but it is hard to see a scenario where they snub one of the most present actors in the business in such a baity role.

5. Timothy Spall – Mr. Turner – He is one of the most loved actors around, yet he has never gotten the nod from any significant award circuit. He finally has a role that he can be singled out for, and while this would be a clear shock nom, well, there is always one.

Others in contention

6. Steve Carell – Foxcatcher – He gets completely lost in his character, but the buzz for the film has really gone silent. His performance is more supporting anyway, but he is still right there in that second tier.

7. David Oyelowo – Selma – I find it hard to predict him anywhere but in the running for the win, but maybe there is already backlash to the film that hasn’t even gotten its theatrical run yet in the States.

8. Bradley Cooper – American Sniper – He is going to be in and around the Oscars for a long time, and this is yet another strong effort that could wind up leading to a nom.

9. Joaquin Phoenix – Inherent Vice – Depending on how the movie is received, he could become a lock or a joke for even considering him.

10. Ralph Fiennes – The Grand Budapest Hotel – Even I, who liked the movie a decent amount, would consider this nomination to be a bit loony, but he was really funny. The 2-time nominee hasn’t been invited back since 1996.

11. Miles Teller – Whiplash – The best performance of the year is getting widely ignored by the major awards. When is he going to get recognized for what he is, the best actor of his generation?

12. Oscar Isaac – A Most Violent Year – His movie needs to be amazing for him to get in…but then again, that didn’t do much for him with Inside Llewyn Davis last year.

Annual Tommy Lee Jones – In the Valley of Elah Shocker Nomination: Chadwick Boseman – Get On Up

BEST DIRECTOR

The Predicted Five

1. Richard Linklater – Boyhood – He is the architect of one of the most beautiful movies to come out in a long time. Any other director winning would be a bit of a tragedy.

2. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu – Birdman – He has a much more obvious directing contribution, but camera work isn’t everything. If he is the one to take down Linklater, I could maybe handle that.

3. David Fincher – Gone Girl – He is going to be the next Scorsese and maybe not win one for way too long. He is maybe the most consistent director in the world, and his movie was a real stunner.

4. Wes Anderson – The Grand Budapest Hotel – He has had a lot of screenplay contenders, but this is his first real contender in this category. Does the whole Academy love him as much as his writing peers?

5. James Marsh – The Theory of Everything – The past winner for Man on Wire had a really great directing achievement in this movie, and between Marsh and Tyldum, I need to side with the slightly more recognizable name.

Others in contention

6. Morten Tyldum – The Imitation Game – His movie still has the potential to get the British vote over The Theory of Everything. I cannot see both making it into this competitive category, but they are going to battle it out for one of the spots.

7. Ava DuVernay – Selma – The Academy loves narratives like giving out the first female black directing nomination, but the snubs for the movie are getting more concerning.

8. Bennett Miller – Foxcatcher – The Cannes winner and Oscar darling has really got to show us something with the wide release of the film coming up.

9. J.C. Chandor – A Most Violent Year – He has had 3 films that were all opposites in styles of each other, and the first 2 were minor Oscar hits. Can his most polished movie give him his deserved directing nom?

10. Damien Chazelle – Whiplash – This would be a Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild)-level surprise nomination, but it would be deserved. His movie is steadily building buzz.

11. Dan Gilroy – Nightcrawler – He hasn’t gotten a whole lot of buzz, but his film has. If his film is really a threat the way everyone predicts, then he needs to get in.

BEST PICTURE

The Predicted Ten (I predict 9 will get nominated)

1. Boyhood (Richard Linklater) – The film that should win might actually do just that for one of the rare times at the Oscars. It has sustained buzz, withstood runs from other easier movies to take in, and risen up to win everything that is important. It is the one to beat.

 

2. Gone Girl (David Fincher) – If this were to somehow take the top prize, then it would be crazy. It is this year’s Fatal Attraction, in a way, but it also could be this year’s The Departed. It would be to a much lesser extent, due to the weakness of the year overall, but it could be somewhat of a default winner.

3. Birdman (Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu) – The movie is a strange case in the race, but it is clearly one of the few that has a real shot at winning. It would be a bizarre choice. I have compared it to All About Eve on occasion, but it is much too much of an oddball to be treated like that…right?

 

4. The Theory of Everything (James Marsh) – The movie does not seem like a real threat to win the prize, but it would be a little ridiculous if it weren’t mentioned in the top…whatever number they come up with.

5. Nightcrawler (Dan Gilroy) – Nightcrawler is the only real wild card in the bunch. We don’t know what to think about it necessarily, but it has a lot of things going for it. A Best Picture nomination seems certain, and I am scratching my head as I am saying that.

 

6. The Imitation Game (Morten Tyldum) – This one has a bit of work to do to get back into the real contender mix, but its subject matter and straight-forward storytelling approach will sell well with the older voters.

7. Whiplash (Damien Chazelle) – It is one of the Sundance winners that accomplished the miracle of staying relevant for 12 months. It is almost a shoo-in, but shhh I don’t want to jinx it.

 

8. A Most Violent Year (J.C. Chandor) – The last time a National Board of Review winner missed the Best Picture lineup was 2000 (Quills). I was skeptical last year with Her, but it ended up being a sort of slam dunk. At this point, predicting this film is shaky, but I have faith.

 

9. The Grand Budapest Hotel (Wes Anderson) – His movie needs the 1^st place votes to get in, which I cannot really see happening, but apparently people really loved it. I guess it is kind of a lock.

 

10. American Sniper (Clint Eastwood) – Eastwood’s second-best movie of the year (no chance it’s as good as Jersey Boys) has everything going for it. It hasn’t been released or shunned yet, it has a bit of controversy, and it stars Bradley Cooper. It could easily slide into the race upon more people seeing it.

 

Others in contention

11. Selma (Ava DuVernay) – Its PGA snub hurts its chances a lot, but films can overcome that. It just is no longer a threat to win the thing.

12. Foxcatcher (Bennett Miller) – Miller’s previous films were nominated, but they were more talked-about and relevant than Foxcatcher, a tortured mini-masterpiece that was delayed and put through hell.

13. Unbroken (Angelina Jolie) – I will never fully understand how this movie wasn’t more popular, but it still can get in. It has the release date, subject, and pedigree to make a run, but it has an uphill climb.

14. Into the Woods (Rob Marshall) – How much does the Academy miss having musicals in the race every year?

Booyah! Thoughts on these predictions? What do you think will take home the top prizes? Let me know in the comments!

2015 Oscar Predictions: Final (Arts and Techs)

Here are my predictions for the rest of the categories, the ones where I try to act like I know what I’m talking about but in reality are nothing more than stabs in the dark…which is why my commentary is held to a minimum (none).

Link to the big 8 categories: http://almostsideways.blogspot.com/2015/01/2015-oscar-predictions-final-major.html

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Birdman

2. Mr. Turner

3. Interstellar

4. Unbroken

5. The Grand Budapest Hotel

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Into the Woods

2. Birdman

3. Interstellar

4. The Grand Budapest Hotel

5. The Imitation Game

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Belle

 

2. The Grand Budapest Hotel

3. Into the Woods

4. Mr. Turner

5. Inherent Vice

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. Whiplash

 

2. Birdman

3. Gone Girl

4. Into the Woods

5. American Sniper

BEST EDITING

1. Gone Girl

2. Boyhood

3. Birdman

4. Nightcrawler

5. The Imitation Game

BEST SOUND EFFECTS EDITING

1. Interstellar

2. Transformers: Age of Extinction

3. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

4. Fury

5. The Lego Movie

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Interstellar

 

2. Guardians of the Galaxy

3. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies

4. Captain America: Winter Soldier

5. Maleficent

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

1. Foxcatcher

 

2. Guardians of the Galaxy

3. The Grand Budapest Hotel

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. “Glory” – Selma

2. “I’m Not Gonna Miss You” – Glen Campbell: I’ll Be Me

3. “Big Eyes” – Big Eyes

4. “Split the Difference” – Boyhood

5. “Miracles” – Unbroken

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. The Theory of Everything

 

2. Interstellar

3. Gone Girl

4. The Imitation Game

5. The Grand Budapest Hotel

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Citizenfour

2. The Last Days in Vietnam

3. Virunga

4. The Case Against 8

5. Citizen Koch

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. The Lego Movie

 

2. Big Hero 6

3. The Boxtrolls

4. How to Train Your Dragon 2

5. The Tale of the Princess Kaguya

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1. Ida

 

2. Timbuktu

3. Accused

4. Wild Tales

5. Leviathan

Predicted Nominations Count

Birdman: 10 noms / 3 wins

The Grand Budapest Hotel: 8 noms

Boyhood: 7 noms / 3 wins

Gone Girl: 7 noms / 2 wins

The Theory of Everything: 6 noms / 1 win

The Imitation Game: 6 noms

Interstellar: 5 noms / 2 wins

Whiplash: 4 noms / 2 wins

Into the Woods: 4 noms / 1 win

Mr. Turner: 4 noms
Nightcrawler: 4 noms

Foxcatcher: 2 noms / 1 win

The Lego Movie: 2 noms / 1 win

Big Eyes: 2 noms

Guardians of the Galaxy: 2 noms

Inherent Vice: 2 noms

A Most Violent Year: 2 noms

Unbroken: 2 noms

Belle: 1 nom / 1 win

Citizenfour: 1 nom / 1 win

Ida: 1 nom / 1 win

Selma: 1 nom / 1 win
Still Alice: 1 nom / 1 win

Accused: 1 nom

American Sniper: 1 nom

Big Hero 6: 1 nom

The Boxtrolls: 1 nom

Captain America: Winter Soldier: 1 nom

The Case Against 8: 1 nom

Citizen Koch: 1 nom

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes: 1 nom

Fury: 1 nom

Glen Campbell: I’ll Be Me: 1 nom

The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies: 1 nom

How to Train Your Dragon 2: 1 nom

The Judge: 1 nom

The Last Days in Vietnam: 1 nom

Leviathan: 1 nom

Maleficent: 1 nom

Snowpiercer: 1 nom

The Tale of the Princess Kaguya: 1 nom

Timbuktu: 1 nom

Transformers: Age of Extinction: 1 nom

Virunga: 1 nom

Wild: 1 nom

Wild Tales: 1 nom

 

That’s all I got! I am prepared for these to get torn up in a couple weeks, but whatever. It’s fun. Stay tuned for our 7^th Annual Oscar Challenge, as well as my yearly reactions to the nominations article. Comment!

2015 Oscar Predictions: September

There have been quite a few shifts in the Oscar race since my preview article back in early March. We are beginning to see which movies are the frontrunners, but if we have learned anything in the past decade or so, the frontrunners are almost never the ones that end up winning big on Oscar night. Here is a quick rundown of the changes in the past half year, followed by my extensive predictions leading up to the few months where the good movies are finally going to be released.

Release date casualties: Anita, Carol, Child 44, The End of the Tour, Hands of Stone, Jane Got a Gun, The Last 5 Years, Midnight Special, Serena, Untitled Cameron Crowe Project, A Walk in the Woods, While We’re Young

Release date additions: American Sniper, A Most Violent Year

New films on the radar: The Theory of Everything, Selma, Suite Francaise, Love Is Strange, Miss Julie, Effie Gray, Still Alice

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

1. Gone Girl – Gillian Flynn – As the year goes along, it appears clear that this is going to be the most talked about movie of 2014. Every time anything comes out about the film, it is news on IMDb. The trailers are getting better and better. It has the cast and the A-list director. The only thing against it for screenplay is that it is written by the author, which is not always warmly received by the Academy.

2. Unbroken – William Nicholson, Joel Coen, Ethan Coen, Richard LaGravenese – This movie has quietly sustained buzz throughout the year since its trailer debut during the Winter Olympics. The subject matter and amazing list of writers alone keep it in the running.

3. The Imitation Game – Graham Moore – I was never really sold on this earlier in the year, but it is getting great early reviews and it appears to be a writing showcase if there ever was one. It could be this year’s Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy.

4. The Theory of Everything – Anthony McCarten – A movie with a hot young cast about a real life person like Stephen Hawking has got to have some juicy writing in it. Early word is terrific. Watch out for this one.

5. Inherent Vice – Paul Thomas Anderson – We still do not have a trailer (which I am almost happy about), but its source material is incredibly dark and weird, perfect for this category.

Others in contention

6. Trash – Richard Curtis – Underestimating a Stephen Daldry movie is never a good idea. Even though this sounds incredibly light and corny…well, so was Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close.

7. Kill the Messenger – Peter Landesman – These types of movies have been very popular in recent years. I wouldn’t doubt if this gets a really strong box office and jumps into the major awards, seemingly out of nowhere.

8. Rosewater – Jon Stewart – It had a strong trailer, but it is being overlooked and written off by many. I think this is going to blow everyone away.

9. American Sniper – Jason Dean Hall – Surprisingly, this movie was sped up and is set to be released in December. Its subject matter is intriguing, and it is directed by Clint Eastwood. I like this movie’s chances for the acting awards and screenplay. It could be a fairly controversial film a la Zero Dark Thirty.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

1. Birdman – Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Nicolas Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Armando Bo – The movie has been taking festivals by storm, and its subject matter totally suits the Original Screenplay winner profile. It is going to be so much darker and deeper than it sounds. I can’t wait to see it.

2. Foxcatcher - E. Max Frye, Dan Futterman – It appears that this is as good as its early trailer leak last year implied it could be. It is dominating the festivals, and it getting career-best marks for everyone involved. Can a movie this dark really take the major awards?

3. Mr. Turner – Mike Leigh – No real explanation needed here. It is Mike Leigh, so it will be nominated, even when it gets almost no love leading up to the announcement.

4. Boyhood – Richard Linklater – It is almost certainly going to be the best movie of the year, and it is groundbreaking and unforgettable. It has everything that the Academy could possibly ask for in a film. It could be the winner with a few precursor victories.

5. Whiplash – Damien Chazelle – The Sundance winner had an electric trailer, and as I expected, it appears to be this year’s Billy Elliot. The recent Sundance winners have underperformed at the Oscars, but this one appears to be the real deal…and it has a legitimate release date. One note: it is based on the director’s short film, but is listed as an original screenplay. Didn’t we go through this with District 9?

Others in contention

6. Interstellar – Christopher Nolan, Jonathon Nolan – Everyone seems to be in love with everything Nolan right now, and this movie has somehow remained somewhat quiet since its trailer was released. It is taking a different route than Inception, and I respect that. I hope it pays off.

7. Love & Mercy – Oren Moverman, Michael A. Lerner – I am not giving up on this movie just yet, even though we really do not know too much about it. Moverman is a talented writer, and the subject really fits with Academy standards.

8. The Grand Budapest Hotel – Wes Anderson, Hugo Guinness – Anderson movies are normally well in contention, and this one set a few limited release box office records. Will it be remembered come December?

9. A Most Violent Year – J.C. Chandor – His first two films shook up the awards, and this appears to be his first plot-driven movie. That could bode well for the guy who seemingly mastered all dialogue and zero dialogue.

10. Love Is Strange – Ira Sachs – This is the type of veteran-starring movie that really strikes a chord with the Academy. Reviews are decent, and Sachs has had a couple strong indie hits.

11. Fury – David Ayer – I am still not 100% sold on its trailers, but it is hard to get past the cast and subject. I hope for the best. Ayer is one talented filmmaker.

12. Selma – Paul Webb – Having a movie about MLK, LBJ, and George Wallace has got to put your movie in contention. It didn’t work for The Butler last year, but this one has a more promising pedigree.

13. 99 Homes - Ramin Bahrani, Amir Naderi, Bahareh Azimi – This is another one where we do not know too much about it just yet, but I am still keeping an eye on it. It has the potential to be a real sleeper hit.

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Shohreh Aghdashloo – Rosewater – With basically all of my March contenders now seeming like foolish picks, one of the few films that we haven’t seen still has a strong potential contender. She is a past nominee and will undoubtedly have a dynamite part in Jon Stewart’s passion project.

2. Anna Kendrick – Into the Woods – She is said to have one of the most scene-stealing parts in the play, and we all know she can sing. Look for a second nomination for the budding star.

3. Patricia Arquette – Boyhood – She is quite understated throughout the movie, yet she leaves an emotional impact greater than any other character. It is a flawless performance, and if Boyhood is the contender that we all expect it is, then she needs to get swept in with it.

4. Katherine Waterston – Inherent Vice – She has the best supporting female role in the book, and there is always a newcomer in the mix. PTA supporting players are always getting nominated.

5. Julianne Moore – Maps to the Stars – She hasn’t been invited back since 2002, and playing this crazy part in a Cronenberg movie will show us a side of her we haven’t seen in a long time. I hope for the best with this one.

Others in contention

6. Vanessa Redgrave – Foxcatcher – It seems like she always has a hyped up role, but she ends up coming up short each and every year. Maybe the slam dunk hit by Bennett Miller will change that.

7. Mary Elizabeth Winstead – Kill the Messenger – She is ready for her first nomination, and while buzz on this film is quiet, all signs point to it being an actor showcase and box office semi-hit.

8. Krysten Ritter – Big Eyes – Tim Burton films are not always kind to his actors, but she has the opportunity to steal the movie with her free-spirit character opposite Amy Adams.

9. Laura Dern – Wild – She has a bunch of films this year, and this one seems like her most sure-fire shot at her first nom in 23 years. The buzz for the film is increasing daily.

10. Naomi Watts – Birdman – I am not sure which of the supporting ladies in the film have the best parts, but from the trailer, Watts looked like she has a lot to work with.

11. Viola Davis – Get on Up – The movie came and went early in the year. She will need a couple precursor mentions if she wants to regain her previously established frontrunner status.

12. Lesley Manville – Mr. Turner – She was left off for Another Year. Maybe this true story is her shot at redemption.

13. Rooney Mara – Trash – Each Daldry film has had at least one acting nomination. She probably stands the best chance in the mostly unproven cast.

14. Carmen Ejogo – Selma – She plays Coretta Scott King, which will likely either leave her stealing scenes or getting completely overshadowed by her husband character.

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. J.K. Simmons – Whiplash – The trailer almost convinced me that he is a shoo-in nominee and potential winner. I always knew he could do something great in a drama.

2. Josh Brolin – Inherent Vice – When I read the book, I thought “Bigfoot” is a perfect Josh Brolin role. Little did I know, he was already cast in that part.

3. Paul Giamatti – Love & Mercy – I am still convinced that if this movie is big enough, then Giamatti is a potential victor in this category.

4. Michael Shannon – 99 Homes – If the movie is going to work, then he is going to need to be a great villainous character. He should be able to kill it, but who knows how deep Bahrani’s film will really dig?

5. Neil Patrick Harris – Gone Girl – I have said that whoever the killer ends up being is getting nominated. Not being too familiar with the story, I am taking a shot on the TV star being that guy. Please, don’t spoil it for me or anyone else if you already know…

Others in contention

6. Robert Duvall – The Judge – The more I see from this movie, the more it is clear that it is going to make more money than it ought to and both actors are going to be well within contention.

7. Tim Roth – Selma – He plays George Wallace, which will be a great part for the past nominee. He deserves a second invite to the party.

8. Mark Ruffalo – Foxcatcher – He is a great character actor and already had his Emmy hit movie The Normal Heart this year to remind us of that. This seems like a role that will make or break the movie.

9. Ethan Hawke – Boyhood – His part was the most important one in keeping the movie grounded and relatable. He deserves accolades for it. This should be his second career acting nom, but we will have to see how much the Academy loved the film.

10. Johnny Depp – Into the Woods – Playing “The Wolf” is going to be memorable, but can he stand out in that colorful and dynamic cast? Probably, but can he take it all the way to his first supporting nomination? Not sure…

11. Bob Odenkirk – Boulevard – This movie was already on my radar, but since Robin Williams’s death, it is even more so. Could this film be one last send-up to one of our finest actors? Odenkirk and the rest of the supporting cast will need to show up to make the movie something worth checking out. Dito Montiel can certainly direct great performances. Keep an eye on how this one develops.

12. Tom Wilkinson – Selma – He plays President Johnson in the film. I assume that MLK and LBJ will be separated in their acting categories, but it is difficult to decipher which way it will go. I’ll go with MLK being the focus of the story.

13. Edward Norton – Birdman – He looks great in the trailer, but I am getting used to our finest actor getting snubbed for every great performance he gives. Maybe the love affair Oscar has with Inarritu will change that.

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Julianne Moore – Still Alice – The role sounds like something that suits arguably our best Oscarless actress, and the festivals have gone gaga over the performance. Is it finally her time?

2. Reese Witherspoon – Wild – She has what appears to be a one-woman-show type role, and she is directed by Jean-Marc Vallee, who just got two actors Oscars last year. Her nomination is pretty much a lock at this point.

3. Amy Adams – Big Eyes – The trailer looks terrific and seems like somewhat of an actor showcase, which is not what we have come accustomed to with Tim Burton. How many noms can she get in such a short amount of time without getting one win?

4. Meryl Streep – Into the Woods – Maybe she is lead, maybe she is supporting. We really do not know, but she is nominated lead almost exclusively now. She will get in either way.

5. Shailene Woodley – The Fault in Our Stars – This would be quite a surprise, especially if she doesn’t show up on the precursors. She is the hottest thing out there right now, and the movie had the emotion, reviews, and box office to take her all the way to the ceremony.

Others in contention

6. Rosanumd Pike – Gone Girl – I do not know too much about the structure, but it is hard to believe that she is really a lead. That is where she is campaigned, though, which might be the thing that makes her just miss out on a first nom.

7. Felicity Jones – The Theory of Everything – She is one of the more underrated young actresses in the business, and she has a fantastic role in the movie about Stephen Hawking. If the movie is as beloved as it can be, then she might get swept in with the momentum.

8. Jessica Chastain – A Most Violent Year / The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby – She has a couple great chances to get nominated. It really all depends on what kind of release the movies get. She should become an Oscar regular in the coming years.

9. Mia Wasikowska – Tracks – Depending on which movie is the bigger hit, she could steal Reese Witherspoon’s nomination with a similar type role.

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Michael Keaton – Birdman – The trailers are getting better and better. It is the role of a lifetime, more or less about his lifetime. Will that much self-reflection hurt him or help him? It’s hard to tell, but for now, I have to think he is the frontrunner.

2. Steve Carell – Foxcatcher – The physical transformation and mental instability certainly put him right near the top, and he keeps garnering awards and high praise citations from critics and festival audiences. He is a lock for a nomination.

3. Eddie Redmayne – The Theory of Everything – Playing Stephen Hawking is a dream for a young actor like Redmayne. He has already gotten praise for My Week with Marilyn and Les Mis, so he is not a new face in this crowded, incredibly strong category.

4. David Oyelowo – Selma – You do not get too much more of potential Oscar nom than playing the booming personality of Martin Luther King Jr. He has only had a few legitimate roles in significant movies, but the pedigree of this movie and dynamics of his character should be enough to give him an excellent shot at a first nomination.

5. Miles Teller – Whiplash – How cool would it be if our two favorite indie actors turned budding superstars got their first noms in the same year?! Teller has the high-energy Sundance darling, and Woodley has the crowd-pleasing box office weepie. Both have a great chance to capture the younger audience vote of the members.

Others in contention

6. Joaquin Phoenix – Inherent Vice – This is my single most anticipated performance of 2014. I can see the movie being a bit too weird for the Academy, but that hasn’t stopped the acting noms from coming PTA’s way. He is right in the running, and maybe with an eventual trailer, he could climb right back to the top.

7. Brad Pitt – Fury – He is the biggest movie star in the world, arguably. His movie is one of the more uncertain cases of the year, but Ayer can direct actors and the trailers have been intriguing to say the least. He might get in by name alone, anyway.

8. Jack O’Connell – Unbroken – He is a talented young actor, and his movie is one of the ones to beat in the Best Picture race. If they really love the movie, then he could become a no-brainer.

9. Benedict Cumberbatch – The Imitation Game – He has a huge fanbase, but he is battling with a few other major British performances. His movie might be much better than I am expecting, but for right now, I will be safe and predict him out.

10. Robert Downey Jr. – The Judge – His movie got mediocre marks from the TIFF, but the movie still looks like exactly the kind of performance that gets nominated despite all of that.

11. Timothy Spall – Mr. Turner – Mike Leigh has not had a great track record with his male actors, especially Spall, but this seems like a pretty surefire Oscar contender.

12. Bill Murray – St. Vincent – He was one of the big gainers out of Toronto. The role sounds wonderfully strange and scene-stealing from the description. He needs his second nomination soon.

12. Oscar Isaac – A Most Violent Year – He was left off for Inside Llewyn Davis, unfortunately. He is going to be a star for a long time, and being directed by the great J.C. Chandor could do wonders for Isaac.

13. Ellar Coltrane – Boyhood – He goes through the most obvious transformation in movie history, and with each year that goes by, he grows more and more impressive and mysterious. It is a phenomenal performance, and if Boyhood is our eventual Oscar juggernaut, then he will be nominated.

14. Jake Gyllenhaal – Nightcrawler – He needs his second nomination at some point, since he has been doing the best work of his career in recent years. It is difficult to see a movie called “Nightcrawler” getting an Oscar nomination, but the trailer and potential of his role seem undeniable.

15. Ben Affleck – Gone Girl – Has the Academy gotten over it yet? Can he get his first acting nomination? He had to have been close for Argo after his BAFTA nom. This seems like his best shot yet in a role that will push him further than any lead role he has ever had.

16. Gael Garcia Bernal – Rosewater – The buzz on the Jon Stewart drama has been quiet, but Gael Garcia Bernal is one of the best foreign actors in the world. His role appears to have a lot required of him, but he could underplay it like he has done in the past (The Motorcycle Diaries, for example).

17. Jeremy Renner – Kill the Messenger – He has a couple nominations to his name already, and this true story has good potential to be his third. The buzz has really died down recently, but once it gets released, I believe that we are all going to be taken by the film. It will mostly rely on Renner to make that happen.

18. Bradley Cooper – American Sniper – He had a pretty amazing physical transformation in Clint Eastwood’s true Navy SEAL action-drama, and you would be hard pressed to find a more likable and popular actor working today. He might be our next Tom Hanks and get nominated for every remotely serious role.

19. Philip Seymour Hoffman – A Most Wanted Man – Does the Academy want to throw PSH one more bone? God’s Pocket underperformed, and the Hunger Games movies aren’t going to have enough for him to really chew on. This is a brilliant and subtle performance and our last chance to recognize the best actor of this generation. I am rooting for him.

BEST DIRECTOR

The Predicted Five

1. David Fincher – Gone Girl – He has had three major Oscar hits in a row, and despite all the precursor wins for The Social Network, he was unable to take home the gold. Everyone in the industry loves him. He has an incredibly relevant and seemingly moody and dark thriller, which could be the next The Silence of the Lambs at the Oscars. I think he wins big, even if not at the other awards.

2. Richard Linklater – Boyhood – He had the most complex directing job in recent memory. Everything about the movie was flawlessly put together and beautifully realized. After two noms for screenwriting, it is time that he gets his directing recognition.

3. Bennett Miller – Foxcatcher – He is simply incapable of making a bad movie. His film seems much more involved dramatically than his previous two Best Picture-nominated features, which will only heighten his chances at receiving a nom this time.

4. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu – Birdman – Birdman is getting praise from everyone, and would be hard to see the architect of such a crazy and brilliant premise not getting the nod.

5. James Marsh – The Theory of Everything – He directed one of the most popular modern documentaries in Man on Wire, and his film about Stephen Hawking will certainly get the British vote, at least in part.

Others in contention

6. Stephen Daldry – Trash – We still know very little about the movie, but Daldry has gotten nominated for 3 of his 4 films. Good enough to keep him well within contention.

7. Angelina Jolie – Unbroken – We saw with Ben Affleck how hesitant the Academy is to anoint acting stars who direct (ones not named George Clooney, that is). Her direction in In the Land of Blood and Honey was terrific, so we know that this film will be handled with class and artistic beauty.

8. Ava DuVernay – Selma – If there is a newcomer, it will probably be her. Her film will likely be in the spotlight upon its US release.

9. David Ayer – Fury – The Brad Pitt-starring vehicle will likely be a box office smash and have some frantic direction. War films are always in contention in this category.

10. Christopher Nolan – Interstellar – Depending on the quality of the film, this might be Nolan’s best chance at a directing nomination yet, despite a space film taking home the award last year.

11. Morten Tyldum – The Imitation Game – If the British vote does not go to James Marsh, then it will go this way or the way of…

12. Mike Leigh – Mr. Turner – He has gotten a couple nominations in this category in the past. This is his most Oscary film since Vera Drake.

13. Damien Chazelle – Whiplash – The Sundance winners do not always have the release to get nominated in all categories, but I am trusting that this one will.

14. J.C. Chandor – A Most Violent Year – If there was ever a director who more showcased directing talent than one who made an exclusively talking movie (Margin Call) and then made one completely devoid of dialogue (All Is Lost) and had them both succeed with flying colors, then I would like to see it. If this movie has the quality of those two, and if the plot is as thick as it seems, then he should be nominated strictly on principle.

BEST PICTURE

The Predicted Ten (I predict 9 will get nominated)

1. Gone Girl (David Fincher) – This case reminds me a bit of 2006. There was the director whose film had never won Best Picture (Scorsese), and his film (The Departed) was another great one in the genre that he had seemingly mastered. There were a host of crowd-pleasers (Little Miss Sunshine, Dreamgirls) and deep Oscar films (Babel, Letters from Iwo Jima) that could have easily taken home the prize, but we all overlooked the totally solid and probably fantastic film from one of the greats that wound up taking home the gold at the last minute.

2. Unbroken (Angelina Jolie) – If the Academy can get past the name of the director, then this movie could easily go all the way. I am assuming that it is as great as it promises. It is difficult to predict any other way. The trailer was amazing.

3. Boyhood (Richard Linklater) – I would almost like this movie’s chances to win Best Picture if it had been released 30-40 years ago. Back then it was much easier to anoint movies of this length and scope. Hopefully the current members see the grace and magic that this movie truly is and recognize that.

4. Birdman (Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu) – This movie, given the festival reviews and buzz, seems like a surefire nominee at this point. Hopefully the intrigue and mass showing of its trailer will get audiences on the bandwagon as well.

5. Foxcatcher (Bennett Miller) – It has been a long time coming for this film, and I had almost lost faith when its release was delayed until this year after the foreign trailer leaked last summer. It appears that it has weathered the storm and is ready to embark on an exciting awards season.

6. The Theory of Everything (James Marsh) – The British votes will likely be going this way, so the nomination seems pretty clear. It is this year’s The Queen, Philomena, Secrets & Lies, etc.

7. Trash (Stephen Daldry) – Stephen Daldry’s only miss in this category was his debut…which he got a Best Director nom for. I am not underestimating him. Even The Reader’s average reviews garnered a nod.

8. Whiplash (Damien Chazelle) – The Sundance darling with a likely Supporting Actor winner and a rising star as the lead has an excellent chance to get recognized here. Let’s just hope the distribution is appropriate.

9. Selma (Ava DuVernay) – Here, we have another true story. It could end up being this year’s Frost/Nixon. It appears more complex than just simply another biopic.

10. Fury (David Ayer) – If there are ten, then the Brad Pitt-starring tanker film will get some love. The last time two war films were both nominated was in 1998, which is why I did not rank this higher. I am just more confident in the less conventional Unbroken to win over the voters.

Others in contention

11. Interstellar (Christopher Nolan) – The movie will make a bunch of money at the box office, and Nolan is a really popular director right now. If sci-fi really is back for good, then the movie should get in if it is not a dud.

12. The Imitation Game (Morten Tyldum) – I have never been as high on this movie’s potential as everyone else, but everything is pointing to it being truly great. We will have to see how American audiences respond.

13. Mr. Turner (Mike Leigh) – Mike Leigh films are always right in that 8-15 range for Best Picture. Could this be his second nomination in this category and his first in 18 years?

14. A Most Violent Year (J.C. Chandor) – I really want this to live up to the potential I put on it and up to the standards of Chandor’s first two films. Given everyone involved with the film, I don’t see how this can fail. How will the Academy take it, though? They have only been mildly impressed with Chandor’s work so far.

15. Into the Woods (Rob Marshall) – The musical looks like a beautiful holiday treat, but is it deep or serious enough to warrant this type of Oscar love? I am not sure, but since Marshall has directed a winner in the past (Chicago), I am not counting it out.

16. Inherent Vice (Paul Thomas Anderson) – The movie is not going to be one that really dominates the Oscars or Golden Globes. It is likely much more of a critic darling, but sometimes those pass over to the Academy too. I hope this is one of them.

17. Love & Mercy (Bill Pohlad) – No other predictors even have this film as a contender, and yet I am sticking with it. I have nothing to really go on, other than a few glowing reviews, a killer cast, and one of my favorite writers. If this gets nominated the way I predicted it to back in March, then is that going to eclipse my predicting The Secret in Their Eyes taking down The White Ribbon for Best Foreign Film back in 2009? I think so…

That’s all I got! What do you think of 2014 so far? Your predictions? What are your most anticipated throughout the fall and winter months? Let me know below!