2024 Pre-Season Profile: Miami Marlins

 #24

The Miami Marlins slipped into the playoffs in 2023 to everyone's surprise.  Could they do it again in 2024?

2023 Predictions

#17 - 4th in NL East

MIH - Jazz Chisholm Jr.

MIP - Sandy Alcantara

PTW - Eury Perez

FP - Sandy Alcantara will win a second straight Cy Young.

2023 Results

#15 - 84-78, 3rd in NL East, lost in NLWC

Highest WAR (Position) - Luis Arraez

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Jesus Luzardo

Rookie manager Skip Schumaker found some of that Marlins magic in year one at the helm.  In one of the toughest divisions in baseball, Miami found some success despite Sandy Alcantara not finishing the season, needing Tommy John and keeping him out for this season as well.  Jesus Luzardo stepped up and showed some of the promise that made him a top prospect back in the day.  Also, Luis Arraez continued to just hit.

Additions / Subtractions

The Marlins continue to play the low budget game.  Many of their veterans have moved on and are replaced by different veterans.  So out is Yuli Gurriel, Joey Wendle, Jean Segura, and (most notably) Jorge Soler.  Brought in is veteran shortstop Tim Anderson, joining mid-season pickups last season in Jake Burger and Josh Bell to fill these holes.  The pitching staff remains pretty much the same.

Most Important Hitter

Avisail Garcia

It's rare the Marlins throw money at a player, and when they do it's rarely much.  With that said, when they signed Avisail Garcia to a 4 year, $53 million deal two years ago, it was a big deal.  Now, halfway through the contract, Garcia has only played 135 games with very little production.  The biggest question with the Marlins this season is if they can score runs.  They let a lot of production walk out the door and need someone to step up and replace it.  If Garcia can find some new life in his career, stay healthy, and show a small sign of why he was given that contract, the Marlins lineup might be okay.

Most Important Pitcher

A.J. Puk

The strength of this Marlins team is their pitching, even without Sandy Alcantara this season.  Jesus Luzardo, followed by phenom Eury Perez, can be a pretty good 1-2 punch.  Then there's A.J. Puk.  Puk was supposed to be the ace of the A's staff by now.  Instead, after struggling in the bullpen, he was traded to Miami for a change of scenery.  Last season, Puk had limited success splitting time as the closer.  Now, the Marlins are giving Puk a chance to fulfill his potential as a starter.  At 6'7" with velocity from the left side, we still could see Puk take off.  If he does, this rotation truly shows some great depth.

Prospect to Watch

Max Meyer

Another pitcher that could help that depth is Max Meyer.  The Marlins have one of the worst farm systems in baseball, ranking 29th with only 1 prospect in the Top 100 (and he's still a couple years away).  However, Max Meyer is a wild card.  The 3rd overall pick in the 2020 draft, Meyer was my Prospect to Watch in 2022.  He was poised to break out until he went down with the dreaded Tommy John in his second big league start.  Now he's finally healthy again, and he has another chance to show what he can be.  If he gets back to where he was before the injury, the Marlins have another solid starter.

2024 Predictions

4th in NL East

The Marlins always seem to find a way to be relevant, but it looks like it could be hard to get there this year.  They just lack offense.  Their pitching is great, but can they make up for the lackluster lineup.  There are too many teams on the rise for the Marlins to compete, especially without their best player this season.

Fearless Prediction

Half of the Marlins Opening Day lineup will not be on the roster by the end of the 2024 season.

When you try to build a lineup through veteran bats, they get traded away if your season goes south.  If they don't look like they have a shot, there's a good chance we see a mass exodus mid-season of players like Tim Anderson, Josh Bell, Jake Burger, and Avisail Garcia.

2023 Pre-Season Profile: Miami Marlins

 #17

The Miami Marlins have some of the most exciting talent in all of baseball on their roster.  Can their stars stay healthy and produce a better season on the field in 2023?

2022 Predictions

#23 - 4th in NL East

MIH - Jazz Chisholm Jr.

MIP - Jesus Luzardo

PTW - Max Meyer

2022 Results

#22 - 63-93, 4th in NL East

Highest WAR (Position) - Miguel Rojas

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Sandy Alcantara

The Marlins 2022 season can be summed up in one word: Sandy.  Sandy Alcantara emerged as possibly the best pitcher in all of baseball (if not the best, at least the biggest workhorse) and wrapped up the season with a Cy Young and a top 10 MVP finish.  With that said, the Marlins ran into two problems in 2022.  They were in one of the most competitive divisions in all of baseball, and the rest of the roster couldn't keep up with Sandy.  Alcantara had an 8.0 WAR season, but the next best player had only a 3.0 WAR season (Pablo Lopez).  The players in 4th and 5th on the team in WAR (Jon Berti, Jazz Chisholm Jr.) only played 102 and 60 games respectively.  If guys who only play half the season put together your most productive seasons, it's hard to have a productive season.

Additions / Subtractions

The biggest move of the offseason for the Marlins is manager Don Mattingly moving on and replaced by rookie manager Skip Schumaker.  In terms of the roster, the Marlins made some fascinating moves that rode the line between building the big league roster and moving on from big league talent.  They traded shortstop Miguel Rojas to the Dodgers.  The traded starter Pablo Lopez to the Twins for last year's AL batting champ Luis Arraez.  They traded J.J. Bleday to the A's for A.J. Puk in an exchange of former phenoms in need of a change of scenery.  They signed a crew of veterans that includes starter Johnny Cueto, reliever Matt Barnes, infielders Yuli Gurriel, Jean Segura, and Jose Iglesias.  It was a very active offseason for sure.

Most Important Hitter

Jazz Chisholm Jr.

I said he was the Marlins most important hitter in 2022, but it might be even more important in 2023.  Jazz Chisholm Jr. is a budding superstar that is quickly becoming one of the more recognizable faces in baseball.  His style and flash have turned enough heads to make him the cover athlete for this year's MLB The Show even though he has barely played 200 career games.  He was an All Star in 2022, but injuries held him to only 60 games.  Now, with the acquisition of Luis Arraez, Jazz is not only trying to stay healthy, but he's planning on doing it at the new position of centerfield.  This season will be a big season for Jazz as he tries to prove that he deserves the notoriety he has garnered, and also that he can anchor the Marlins lineup and locker room.

Most Important Pitcher

Sandy Alcantara

It's easy to say the reigning Cy Young Award is going to be his team's most important pitcher, but this is especially the case for the Marlins for several reasons.  Like I said earlier, Sandy Alcantara was the Marlins last season.  He also threw over 200 innings for the second season in a row.  In fact, in 2022 he threw 23 more innings than any other pitcher in baseball.  Alcantara is a work horse and built like an old school pitcher, however this workload tends to wear down an arm pretty quick.  If the Marlins are going to have a successful season, Alcantara needs to throw 200 innings again.  The question is if his arm can withstand that innings load again.

Prospect to Watch

Eury Perez

Pretty soon, Alcantara will be joined by an electric phenom.  Eury Perez is only 19 years old (turns 20 in April) and is just about ready to make an impact at the big league level.  At 6'8" 220 pounds, Perez can touch triple digits with his fastball while featuring a full 4 pitch mix.  Ranked the 13th best prospect in MLB, if he continues to dominate at every level, the Marlins might have a second coming of their current ace.

2023 Prediction

4th in NL East

It's hard to think of a 4th place divisional finish as a step forward, but that's the best the Marlins can hope for in 2023.  I think they actually might benefit the most of any team having the balanced schedule this season.  In 2022, over one-third of the Marlins schedule was against the Mets, Braves, and NL champ Phillies.  The new schedule drops that number to less than one-fourth (39 games instead of 57).  They have a good chance at finishing the season around .500, which will be good for 4th at best with the superteams in front of them.  It feels like they are building the roster the right way though.

Fearless Prediction

Sandy Alcantara will win a second straight Cy Young.

Alcantara's arm might break down at some point, but not this year.  If he stays healthy, a second straight Cy Young should be easy for Sandy to get simply because of the high workload while remaining dominant.  No one pitches like he does anymore.  It's a bad start if he only goes 7 innings.  He wants a complete game every time out.  Alcantara had 6 complete games in 2022.  The next highest was 2.  If he is able to throw 200 innings again, the Cy Young will be in Miami again.

2021 Pre-Season Profile: Miami Marlins

 #20

The Miami Marlins were the surprise of the 2020 season, fighting through COVID issues to somehow make the playoffs and even win a series.  Was that a crazy 60 game anomaly, or are the Marlins ready to be a perennial contender?

2020 Predictions

#22 - 5th in NL East

MIH - Brian Anderson

MIP - Sandy Alcantara

PTW - Jesus Sanchez

FP - The Marlins will win a World Series in the next 5 years.

2020 Results

#14 - 31-29, 2nd in NL East, lost in NLDS

As you can tell by my Fearless Prediction from last year, I could see some Miami Marlins success coming soon, but no one saw it coming this soon.  The Marlins also dealt with most COVID issues of any club in the league, yet through all that they made made a postseason run thanks to the expanded playoff setup last year that allowed all 2nd place finishers a spot in the tournament.  There has never been a more deserving Manager of the Year award handed out than Don Mattingly in 2020.

Additions / Subtractions

The Marlins roster looks practically the same in 2021 as it did at the end of 2020.  There was some turnover in the bullpen as there is with every club.  Jose Urena, their Opening Day starter in 2018, was allowed to walk.  They also brought in Adam Duvall to man a corner outfield spot.  Other than that, the roster looks roughly the same.  The biggest news the Marlins made over the offseason was the hiring of their new GM, Kim Ng.  She is the first woman to hold that role in MLB so there will definitely be a spotlight on her and the decisions around this roster this season.

Most Important Hitter

Starling Marte

In 2020, the Marlins actually found themselves as buyers at the Trade Deadline and made an incredibly savvy move by acquiring Starling Marte from the Diamondbacks.  Instantly, his presence in the lineup made it feel more legitimate.  It wasn't just a group of kids anymore.  Moving into 2021, Marte will serve that same role of being a quality veteran presence in the heart of the lineup and also provide the leadership needed for the upcoming young core.

Most Important Pitcher

Sixto Sanchez

It's rare that a player that still has his rookie status is the most important player on a club, but that is the case for Sixto Sanchez.  A highly regarded prospect and the centerpiece of the J.T. Realmuto trade to the Phillies, Sanchez made his debut in late August and in only 7 stars, he worked his way up to being 3rd on the team in WAR and was the #2 starter during the Marlins' playoff run behind ace Sandy Alcantara.  Now the Marlins need Sanchez to make the jump from phenom to established dominant ace at the top of their rotation.  It's a lot to ask for a kid only entering his age 22 season, but he has the stuff to do it.

Prospect to Watch

Jazz Chisholm

The Marlins currently have 5 players (including Sixto Sanchez) in MLB's Top 100 Prospects list.  Although Sixto is still technically a prospect, the most exciting rookie to watch this season for the Marlins might be Jazz Chisholm.  Ranked the 66th best prospect in baseball, Jazz played in 21 games for the Marlins last season with marginal success.  Now he is slated to be their starting 2nd baseman on Opening Day.  He has all the tools to be a star with the personality (and the name) to go along with it.  He will be a fun watch for this young and exciting team moving forward.

2021 Prediction

5th in NL East

I know the Marlins finished 2nd last year.  I know they are a team on the rise.  I know everything is moving in the right direction for this franchise that has often struggled to do that.  The problem is this is, in 2021, the most competitive division I can remember.  In this division, you have four other teams that have built super rosters and are fully committed to winning right now.  In a full 162 game season, I don't see the Marlins overtaking any of the other four.

Fearless Prediction

2021 will be the last time the Miami Marlins finish in the cellar of the NL East for the next decade.

Like I said, the Marlins are moving in the right direction and are very close to breaking out into an elite team.  2021 is not the time, but in the next few years they will be hitting their peak.  Behind Kim Ng and CEO Derek Jeter, look for the Marlins to have sustainable success moving forward.  Who would've thought this was possible after they traded away Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, and J.T. Realmuto just a few short years ago.

2020 Pre-Season Profile: Miami Marlins

#22

The Miami Marlins had the lowest attendance in the National League in 2019 after yet another season of floundering in the "rebuilding" stage.  Will 2020 finally see a change in the fortunes of South Beach?

2019 Predictions

#28 - 5th in NL East

MIH: Lewis Brinson

MIP: Dan Straily

PTW: Sixto Sanchez

FP: The Marlins' starting rotation will all be under 30 years old by the end of the season.

2019 Results

#28 - 57-105, 5th in NL East

The Marlins spent a second straight season in the cellar of the NL East after trading away their All Star outfield after the 2017 season.  They are still waiting for some of the prospects they picked up in those trades to hit big at the top level.  Lewis Brinson, the centerpiece of the Christian Yelich trade, only played in 75 games hitting .173 and an OPS+ of 24.  Dan Straily was my Most Important Pitcher last season, and he didn't make the Opening Day roster.  Miami is still eagerly awaiting the debut of top prospect Sixto Sanchez, the centerpiece of the J.T. Realmuto deal.  As for my Fearless Prediction, there were a total of 4 games started by someone 30+ years old for Miami last season (Hector Noesi) while most were made by sub-25 year-olds.

Additions / Subtractions

The Marlins had an interesting offseason as they decided to pick up some veteran players that could make an impact to go along with their developing young core.  So enter Jesus Aguilar, Jonathan Villar, and Corey Dickerson to stabilize the batting order.  The only impact players leaving the team were Starlin Castro, leaving in free agency, and Curtis Granderson, who retired.

Most Important Hitter

Brian Anderson

The best player on the Marlins last season was Brian Anderson, hitting his way to an OPS+ of 114 and a WAR of 3.7.  At age 26, his peak could still be ahead of him as he makes a case for being a centerpiece moving forward.  Either that, or he is trying to be a candidate for the next Marlin star traded away for prospects.

Most Important Pitcher

Sandy Alcantara

Sandy Alcantara was a rookie in 2019.  He also was the Marlins only All Star and their best pitcher all season, having an ERA+ of 109 and almost hitting 200 innings.  If the Marlins have done anything right in their successful seasons, it has been developing great young pitching, and with Alcantara entering only his age 24 season, he should be the next in a great line of aces in Miami if he continues to develop.

Prospect to Watch

Jesus Sanchez

There are five Marlins prospects listed in the Top 100 Prospects in all of baseball, with Sixto Sanchez topping the list at #22.  He is going to be a stud when he hits the big leagues, but I decided to highlight another prospect that might have a great debut in 2020.  Jesus Sanchez is the 4th best prospect in the Marlins system and the 80th best prospect in baseball.  This 22 year old outfield is an all-around player and has a chance to be a standard in the Marlins lineup for the foreseeable future.

2020 Prediction

5th in NL East

There is very little chance the Marlins leave the cellar of the NL East in 2020, but that doesn't mean they will take strides forward.  I love the moves they made to improve their lineup, and when you combine that with their young players about to take a step forward, and the young rotation ready to burst out, I could see the Marlins being a pleasant surprise throughout the season that flirt with a .500 record.  It isn't like they will threaten for a playoff spot, but ... baby steps.

Fearless Prediction

The Marlins will win a World Series in the next 5 years.

The Marlins are one of the most interesting teams in baseball.  Fronted by CEO Derek Jeter, they are heading in the right direction and should be threatening for a playoff spot soon.  The Marlins have made the playoffs twice in their 25+ year history.  Both times they made the playoffs they won the World Series.  If they finally make their way back to the playoffs soon, don't be surprised if they just go all the way.