Power Rankings: Top Ten Movie Trailers

            I hate to admit this, but I love movie trailers.  I love them so much that I turn into Woody Allen in Annie Hall if I’m even a minute late arriving at the theater to see a movie – I simply won’t go in to see it.  The most basic function of a movie trailer is to excite viewers about an upcoming motion picture so much that they pay money to see it, even if their better instincts (and Rotten Tomatoes) inform them otherwise.  But to me, the best movie trailers are so much more than that.  They offer a brief, fleeting glimpse into the essence of a movie, which sounds a lot easier than it actually is.  This is because essence is something that goes beyond a simple snapshot of a film’s plot and genre and major actors; it is an intangible quality that most closely resembles a person’s soul.  And how do you tell a group of strangers about your soul?  The same group of strangers, no less, who have paid money to bear witness to another movie’s soul? 

            To demonstrate a film’s essence in three minutes or less, while not spoiling any major features of plot and dialogue and while also avoiding gratuitous sex, language, and violence, all while maintaining the major M.O. of advertising to consumers and receiving virtually no public accolades for the craftsmanship involved, is an arduous task to say the least.  This is why I am of the firm belief that many of the best trailers regularly exceed the quality of the films they advertise.  I don’t think anyone who saw the trailer for Interstellar would disagree.

            Below is a list of my favorite ten trailers.  Most of these were made for films released in the last couple of decades, which is no accident – seeing these trailers in the darkness and majesty of a movie theater (many of which without any prior knowledge of the movie they advertised) provided for awesome, unforgettable experiences.  And eventually seeing the movies sometimes lived up to that experience, and sometimes did not.  That’s OK.  Of course, it’s difficult to come up with strict criteria for what makes these trailers so great.  Without a doubt, all of them gave me great excitement and anticipation to go back to the theater and spend money.  But I think capturing a movie’s essence is what makes a trailer truly exceptional.  The following top ten trailers were so outstanding that, in my mind, they transcended their status as what scholar Jonathan Gray postulates as paratexts, but became great short films in their own right.

Honorable Mention

Manon of the Spring (1986)

Magnolia (1999)

Kill Bill (2003)

INLAND EMPIRE (2006)

Watchmen (2009)

10. In The Line of Fire (1993)

In some ways, this trailer is the most conventional and old-fashioned entry on this list: A corny and woefully outdated “voice-of-god” narrator and the all-American hero, Clint Eastwood, pulling out his handgun and letting the audience know that any chance of the bad guy winning “is not going to happen.”  But visually, this trailer is bold and unforgettable – so much so that it spawned controversy from morally uptight audiences who first saw it in spring of 1993.  Using the hands of a clock as a circular target for a firearm is creative enough; spinning the 6 from “November 22, 1963” upside down to create “1993” is straight-up ingenious.  Meanwhile, the best part of the actual movie is kept firmly intact but without even showing us a face: John Malkovich’s menacing, maniacal would-be assassin Mitch Leary, one of the great movie villains of the last 25 years.  But who needs Malkovich’s face when you have dialogue like this: “I see you, Frank.  I see you standing over the grave of another dead president.”  Subtlety, this preview may lack, but it makes up for it in the area of gripping psychological dread and excitement.  I love the comment under the YouTube clip by hungwilliam, who observes: “i remember seeing this trailer in san jose and the theater went apeshit.”  I couldn’t have put it better myself.

9. The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (2011)

David Fincher must know some talented people in advertising because his films always boast strong trailers (see The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and #5 on this list).  I was one of the initial skeptics of Fincher’s plans to remake what had already been an adequate and well-distributed Swedish film, but seeing this trailer made me an immediate convert.  The music entirely creates the atmosphere, and unlike some of Fincher’s other trailers, and the song used here (Karen O’s cover of Led Zeppelin’s “Immigrant Song”) is included in the actual film.  The trailer uses nonstop rapid-fire imagery to tell us that the movie involves Daniel Craig, an unsolved murder of some kind, and cold weather.  That’s about it; the precise details are left conspicuously vague, which only boosts our desire to understand how all these disparate pieces are connected (I’m not sure Fincher’s movie answers that for us either, but that’s another story).  The only recurring series of shots comes from the front windshield of (presumably) a car moving along a snowy dirt driveway toward an ominous mansion.  Then, in absurdly oversized capital letters coinciding with the song’s abrasive downbeat: “THE FEEL-BAD MOVIE OF CHRISTMAS.”  Perfect.  The trailer has no beef with telling audiences that most of them will probably not want to see this movie, but for those few souls with the audacity to go back and see it – well, the trailer did warn you.

8. Little Children (2006)

I probably watched this trailer a good 50 times in 2006.  The first 10-20 times were because I was so excited about the project (Todd Field’s follow-up to In the Bedroom and an adaptation of a terrific novel by Tom Perrotta), but the more I watched it, the more I realized how brilliantly crafted the trailer really was.  It is sprinkled with ingenious graphic match cuts (such as 0:23 and 0:49) as well fantastic images from the film which admittedly gives away much of the story’s thrust, but still manages to maintain eroticism and sensuality.  Then there’s the motif of the oncoming locomotive arriving head-on at a crossing section – an image which the trailer wisely never feels the need to show, but still captures as a perfect metaphor for the emotional head-on collisions depicted in Little Children.  Even better is the fact that the trailer completely ignores all the Jackie Earle Haley scenes, which I thought were by far the worst thing about the film.  At any given moment, there are tens of hundreds of films being released about adulterous affairs or cheating or some component of sexual passion.  Little Children’s trailer could have been a banal retread of those same stories told in a wholly conventional fashion, but by emphasizing the characters’ vulnerabilities and desperations within the trap of suburbia, the trailer feels remarkably fresh and powerful.

7. Schindler’s List (1993)

This is obviously a stunning trailer to watch today, but I’ve always wondered about its reception among movie audiences in (the internet-less) 1993.  Did the first audiences of this trailer think this was for a documentary about the Holocaust?  Did they believe this was a movie from the 1940s that was getting rereleased for some reason?  How could they watch this trailer and proceed to enjoy watching dinosaurs chasing Jeff Goldblum for two hours?  The trailer tells us at the end that Schindler’s List is a film by Steven Spielberg; even for those at the time who knew of Spielberg’s involvement with the project, seeing this trailer must have taken them aback.  Watching it today, it still leaves you speechless due to the unfettered and grim realism of the Holocaust it vividly depicts.  Screw the morally righteous critics of In the Line of Fire’s trailer; this is the 1993 movie preview that would have left me emotionally traumatized.  Another fascinating and more subtle aspect of this trailer is how Liam Neeson’s portrayal Oskar Schindler is depicted: The trailer doesn’t tell us outright who he is or even what the title list refers to – only that “the list is life.”  This makes the trailer succeed in showing audiences two sides of the Holocaust which have never been explored before in film – the visceral reality of Schindler’s List’s visual style, as well as the significant story it tells. 

6. Breaking Bad – The Final Episodes (2013)

OK, OK, I had to cheat a little here.  Technically, Breaking Bad is not a film and technically this trailer was not shown in movie theaters but instead during reruns of the show’s first four-and-a-half seasons airing on AMC during the summer of 2013.  But if you were a fan of the show at the time, you could not contain your total and complete giddiness after seeing this trailer.  Like many of the entries on this list, the concept of the trailer is simple: Walter White’s voice reciting an ominous poem alongside revolving images of Albuquerque that the show’s fans may recognize from earlier seasons.  In trailers like this, simplicity is an asset since it is unnecessary to rehash all of the undue details of what has transpired to bring the story to this point (redundancy and reductionism which fans would understandably rebel against).  And spoiling the upcoming episodes is obviously out of the question.  What’s great about this trailer is how the poem’s recitation implies that Walter White, like King Ozymandias, has all the land under his thumb and controls everything and everybody – particularly since every image we see in some ways connects closely with his ascent to the top.  And yet, we see no characters from the show and the only physical manifestation of Walter White is his hat -- the same hat he put on to transform himself into Heisenberg.  This leaves the viewer with incredible hunger to see what happens next.  We know that Walter White is gone, the authorities believe that Heisenberg is untraceable, and all that is left a “colossal wreck, boundless and bare.” 

5. The Social Network (2010)

The other Fincher film on this list, and probably the most discussed trailer of the last ten years.  It has been so widely seen and so talked about and so subsequently universally lauded that the contrarian side of myself did not initially include it on this list for fear of being unoriginal.  But watching the trailer again, it is so apparent how awesome and striking it is that excluding it from this list would seriously endanger my credibility here.  So what do I love about this trailer?  Well, like everyone else, the eerie and atmospheric children’s chorus cover of Radiohead’s “Creep,” which provides a perfect metaphor for the juvenilization of Facebook users obsessed with selfies and profile pics.  And like everyone else, I loved the Aaron Sorkin dialogue being delivered at the unwieldy pace of two thousand words per minute, but also brilliantly encapsulating the explosive and volatile nature of Mark Zuckerberg’s genius.  The trailer’s startlingly unconventional structure (for the first 50 seconds, using only pictures from anonymous Facebook users) made every moviegoer in 2010 put their smartphone down and actually pay attention to the screen (I can confirm this because I was there).  For those skeptical that the creation of Facebook was juicy enough to merit a major Hollywood blockbuster, the film’s clever tagline puts all doubt to rest: “You don’t get to 500 million friends without making a few enemies.”  More than any trailer I can think of, this one announces The Social Network not only as a film, but as a social and cultural event of great significance. 

 4. The Shining (1980) 

By far, the most terrifying trailer ever made, anywhere or any time.  Even replaying it in my head as I write about it freaks me out.  According to IMDb, the MPAA did not allow blood to be depicted in trailers, so in order to get around this, Stanley Kubrick somehow convinced the ratings board that this trailer didn’t show blood gushing out of the elevators, but actually rusty water.  Right.  I suppose we can thank the ratings board for their stupidity and gullibility or else this iconic trailer might have never seen the light of day.  First and foremost, the trailer does a tremendous job of building up suspense right away, as the bizarre synth soundtrack grows louder and more grating to hear and we know that something has to happen to those elevator doors at some point, right?  The composition of the shot is rigidly symmetrical and balanced, which only adds to abhorrent horror of streams of blood dismantling the equal proportions inside the frame.  The blood then blurs over the camera lens, generating the effect of the viewer drowning in it.  It’s just so . . . wrong.  It doesn’t make any rational sense how blood could pour out of an elevator shaft like that and actually flood the entire surface of a building’s lobby.  But that is precisely what The Shining does so well – create surreal distortions that profoundly disturb our rational sensibilities.  Worse yet: The trailer gives us no indication as to the exact insidious ways all that blood was collected, stored, and eventually overrun. Its spoof was pretty blood-curdling too.    

3. Talk to Her (2002)

When first thinking about constructing this list, I speculated that many of the most imaginative and powerful trailers would be foreign-language films.  Since most trailers avoid using subtitles (because Hollywood studios assume most audiences have an IQ of 20), the trailers for international films would have to rely more on evocative visual imagery and sounds.  In theory this is true, but unfortunately, the vast majority of trailers for foreign films I found simply used a Don LaFontaine-like voiceover, along with corny and artificial sound cues, to pander a vastly oversimplified version of the otherwise striking film to stupid American audiences.  The one major example for which this was not the case was Talk to Her.  This is a trailer that strips away any rote adherence to standardized form, content, and flow of modern-day movie trailers.  There are no character introductions, no voiceovers, and no linkages between the bewilderingly disparate images depicted.  Watching this trailer, there is zero percent chance you could glean anything meaningful regarding what the film is about.  In fact, the trailer is so esoteric that the effect is comical: How could a single film coherently contain a female bullfighter, a dance troupe, comatose bodies, blood transfusions, and most aberrant of all, a 1920s-style black-and-white film about a 6-inch man talking to a full-grown woman lying in bed?  It verges on farce.  Obviously if you’ve seen the film, you know the bizarre ways these images intersect, but if you’re watching the trailer “cold,” you’re completely lost.  But lost in the best possible way a movie trailer can make you feel.    

2. The Tree of Life (2011)

For anyone that still doubts the artistic validity and integrity of trailers, this one (along with my choice for #1) should be exhibits 1a and 1b for the argument that trailers can be beautiful and timeless works of art, just like the films they represent.  What’s additionally impressive about the trailer for The Tree of Life is that it stays true to the surreal and oft-discussed perplexity of Terrence Malick’s mode of storytelling.  There’s some sense of linear cohesion here – we know who the characters are and that the boy in the narration presumably grows up to be Sean Penn – but the trailer doesn’t shy away from Malick’s dreamlike imagery and relentless camera movements.  The trailer makes us feel like the newborn child shown at the opening in the way that shapes, objects, and movements are transformed into beautiful and puzzling new things uncovered for the first time.  The narration deemphasizes straightforward coherence and instead offers bewildering aphorisms which somehow match the startling beauty of the images shown.  There’s also the ethereal music which, as is typical for Malick’s films, is classical and profound: Bedrich Smetana’s “The Moldau” plays for the trailer’s first half and eventually morphs into a ravishing chorus from “Funeral March” by Patrick Cassidy.  Unlike most of the trailers on this list, the trailer for The Tree of Life does not refrain from boldly displaying the film’s most beautiful and important moments, which enables it to be mercifully free of any impulse for commerciality or artistic compromise.  It is such a good trailer that it makes you forget that it is advertising anything.

1. Far From Heaven (2002)

Back in 2002, I saw this trailer at a screening of Moonlight Mile, a film I was excited to see and hoped to be moved by.  I did indeed exit the theater emotionally stunned and devastated, but not by Moonlight Mile – instead by the trailer for Far From Heaven.  When I saw that movie a few weeks later, I was not disappointed in the least, but was nonetheless a little surprised how different the trailer was from the actual film.  Far From Heaven attempts to recreate the sights, sounds, and feelings of a Douglas Sirk film without any sort of parody or reflexivity – stylistically, it’s identical to a movie which would have been made in 1957.  I suspect the studio overseeing the trailer thought it risky to follow suit by advertising the film in the excessively theatrical way movies were advertised in 1957; as a result, in one of the smarter moves made by Hollywood PR people, the trailer for Far From Heaven was made in a sleek, modern, subtle, and extremely elegant style.  Expertly using the ravishing and mostly forgotten John Barry theme from Indecent Proposal, the trailer depicts suburban life in the 1950s which is shown as idyllic in many ways, while repressed and deeply sad in others.  The melodious strings of the Barry score reinforce that Far From Heaven firmly belongs to the well-worn genre of “woman’s picture,” but does not paint the film as outdated, corny, or archaic.  Instead, the vibrant colors of the leaves on the trees and the walls and the costumes paint an extremely vivid universe, but also a world where, as the titles inform us, the colors may only be used to mask unhappiness.  The spoken lines from the film – the observations that sometimes it’s the people outside our world that we confide in best, and that we mostly fail in the kind of ideal love that tells us to abandon all our plans – ring beautifully observant and quietly tell us everything we need to know about the film.  It’s also a short trailer, running only a scant 69 seconds, but that abruptness leaves us with an indomitable impression that the trailer has only hinted at the powerful emotional punches that this film carries.  Perhaps the trailer for Far From Heaven is an unconventional choice for best ever – it’s not really the kind of trailer that makes audiences stand up in the theater and holler and cheer – but it communicates Far From Heaven’s essence more effectively and enticingly than any other trailer I’ve ever seen.   

Suggestions?  Disagreements?  Upset that I left off trailers featuring Nicolas Cage as Fu Manchu?  Well rewind that and let me know below. 

2016 Oscar Predictions: February

The time has come for my absurdly early Oscar predictions, but given the fact that I uncovered Birdman last March and predicted it to win Best Picture, maybe the countless hours of clicking through IMDb are actually worth it and give these predictions a bit of credibility. 2015 looks like an interesting year for awards films. Most of our best directors have movies coming out, including Martin Scorsese, Steven Spielberg, Richard Linklater, Quentin Tarantino, among others. I am prepared for these predictions to look horrible in the next few months. Remember me predicting Tammy and A Million Ways to Die in the West in the Original Screenplay category last year? Yeah…me neither. A bunch of films that I predicted last year got delayed, so I avoided most of them this year because I feel like we have already been there. Release date casualties are the most frustrating thing about Oscar prognosticating. Anyway, here are my initial predictions for the Oscars to be held a year from now. Enjoy!

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

1. Beasts of No Nation – Cary Fukunaga – This is one of the movies with the highest ceiling of 2015. Fukunaga has made a couple good films, but he is coming off a television phenomenon in True Detective. Everyone has got to be hotly anticipating his next move. The film is about a child soldier in a civil war in Africa, and there are few better actors to be speaking the writer’s words than the great Idris Elba. I love this film’s chances in the screenplay category (and beyond).

2. Our Brand Is Crisis – Peter Straughn – The film, directed by David Gordon Green, is an adaptation of the documentary about South America and their use of American political strategies. Straughn is a past nominee for Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, so voters may remember him. It all depends on how Green directs. It could be his next step into serious filmmaking.

3. Brooklyn – Nick Hornby – This sounds like a devastating love story, starring a slew of Irish stars. Hornby has been nominated in the past, and his books are always beloved as well. This is a sleeper hit, but one with a great chance to rise up.

4. Tulip Fever – Tom Stoppard – This is a movie that sounds an awful lot like Big Eyes, but for some reason, this one seems more likely to hit with audiences. Stoppard is a past winner as well. We shall see if the young cast can make this movie memorable.

5. Steve Jobs – Aaron Sorkin – The fight to get this movie made is well-documented. Sorkin is simply the most brilliant writer in the industry, and I have to think the time that he has had to polish this script will make it something truly special. It may not be a monster hit in all categories, but screenplay, especially given the nature of this particular script, seems like a borderline sure thing. 

Others in contention

6. Me and Earl and the Dying Girl – Jesse Andrews – The Sundance winner hit-or-miss paradigm is hit on every year. For every Whiplash, there is a Like Crazy. It is always safe to predict a screenplay contender, but never going all in on any of them. The film definitely seems to have a solid premise, but high school settings never hit with Academy voters. I hope for the best.

7. Silence – Jay Cocks – The passion piece for Martin Scorsese is the only movie mentioned on this list that has a 2016 release date set on IMDb, but most people seem to think it will be good to go by awards season. It is a period piece about Jesuit priests in the 17^th century. Originally, Daniel Day-Lewis was going to win another Oscar for this, but Liam Neeson took over his first decent movie in forever. I cannot wait.

8. Ten Thousand Saints – Shari Springer Berman, Robert Pulcini – The directing/writing duo has really only made one great film, and that was the nominated American Splendor. This seems like a really personal story, and it stars a couple of the best young actors in Asa Butterfield and Hailee Steinfeld.

9. The Revenant – Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Mark L. Smith – This survival/revenge story is showing up on a ton of most anticipated lists for 2015, but maybe that is just because Inarritu is coming off Birdman. It sounds pretty awesome, but other than screenplay and acting, Inarritu has never really been a sure bet.

10. Carol – Phyllis Nagy – Todd Haynes is directing, which always has my attention. It is also set in the era that he loves: the 1950s. It features more gender politics and sexual discovery. If this is half as good as Far from Heaven, then watch out.

11. The Walk – Robert Zemeckis, Christopher Browne – Man on Wire was one of the most exhilarating documentaries ever made, and The Walk takes that story and makes it a feature film. I am excited to see where the film goes. It would be nice to see Zemeckis relevant again.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

1. Knight of Cups – Terrence Malick – The first of several Malick movies that were all shot around the same time is finally getting released! And it looks amazing. It is time that he wins an Oscar. This is probably his best shot yet. If you haven’t already, watch the trailer.

2. The Sea of Trees – Chris Sparling – A second wilderness survival film makes an appearance on these predictions, but this one has something else going for it, writer Chris Sparling. One of the most thrilling and unorthodox survival movies I have ever seen was his amazing script Buried, so Matthew McConaughey and Ken Watanabe with a script on that level? I am there.

3. The Hateful Eight – Quentin Tarantino – QT has been on a roll with his last couple films. He really has created a niche with these borderline westerns, but here he goes full-on violent western with a loose redoing of The Magnificent Seven. I am sure that he will wind up in this category next year.

4. Icon – John Hodge – The nominated writer of Trainspotting is blessed with a story full of drama and politics. The Lance Armstrong saga is going to be a talked about film all year, and they got the great Ben Foster to star. The Stephen Frears film should be a contender in several categories.

5. Irrational Man – Woody Allen – With Woody, it is sort of an every other film is good type of situation. You can almost tell by the cast which ones are going to be good, and seeing Joaquin Phoenix attached, it doesn’t even matter what it is about. It is going to be great.

Others in contention

6. The Last Face – Erin Dignam – The Sean Penn-directed film about African politics and humanitarianism has a strong cast and just oozes Oscar appeal. I thought similar things about Rosewater last year, but they do not always work out. This one should.

7. That’s What I’m Talking About – Richard Linklater – The details of this are undisclosed, but Linklater is making a movie. We need to pay attention. It has a largely unknown cast as well. I love that.

8. Joy – Annie Mumolo, David O. Russell – Cooper-Lawrence-De Niro reuniting once again. I am sure this will be a bigger hit than I give it credit for here, but predicting that they are going to love a Russell film is too easy.

9. St James Place – Matt Charman, Ethan Coen, Joel Coen – Well, last year the Coens not directing their own script got mixed results, and this seems like a similar situation with another war movie. Spielberg being at the helm is more encouraging, but I am not buying into this 100%, but it obviously should be on the radar.

10. Ricki and the Flash – Diablo Cody – Cody has yet to really reaffirm her talent after winning for Juno, but this music drama starring Meryl Streep is certainly a step back in the right direction.

11. Life – Luke Davies – This is the story of a photographer who is tasked with taking pictures of James Dean. It has a killer cast and Anton Corbijn is about as good as you can get for this type of material. I assume the movie will be dialogue-centric, which always plays well with Academy voters.

12. Mistress America – Noah Baumbach – This could be the indie comedy that makes a run at this category. Baumbach has played it very low key for his last few films, which I like, but it just doesn’t have the impact of his films like The Squid and the Whale. Maybe this one will be bigger.

13. Inside Out – Peter Docter – Docter’s animated films are always really popular, and this sounds like his most inventive film yet. We get two Pixar films this year, but this is certainly the one with the higher potential. It could be a contender in all categories if it lives up to the hype and standard that Pixar has set.

14. Bleed for This – Ben Younger – Maybe this is just me being a ridiculous Boiler Room fan, but the return film of Ben Younger is one of my most anticipated without even really considering anything else. It is a boxing comeback film and it stars Miles Teller. Even better.

15. Triple Nine – Matt Cook – I am usually skeptical about John Hillcoat’s films because they never really have the tone that the Academy likes, but this sounds incredible. Aaron Paul, Woody Harrelson, and Kate Winslet in a cops vs gangs picture. I am stoked.

16. Green Room – Jeremy Saulnier – Saulnier shook up the indie landscape with his amazing Blue Ruin last year, so naturally his next movie gets a cast. It sounds awesome. I can’t wait to see what this looks like.

17. Freeheld – Ron Nyswaner – Julianne Moore and Ellen Page are playing lesbians in a true story about terminal illness. Sounds like awards stuff to me.

18. Elvis & Nixon – Joey Sagal, Hanala Sagal, Cary Elwes – Indie filmmaker Liza Johnson directs this comedy of the famed meeting between the title characters at the White House. Expect some awesome dialogue and crazy acting by Michael Shannon and Kevin Spacey.

19. By the Sea – Angelina Jolie – So, Unbroken wasn’t the hit it could have been, but this is a much more stripped-down type story and it stars Jolie and Pitt. If it is half as genuine as it promises, then it could be a huge hit.

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Vanessa Redgrave – The Secret Scripture – It seems like Redgrave is always hyped early on, but she always slightly underwhelms. She hasn’t been nominated since 1992. This movie, directed by Oscar favorite Jim Sheridan, is about a woman in a mental hospital. She plays the older version of her. I have to think that she will blow us away.

2. Adele Exarchopoulos – The Last Face – I am not sure what type of part she is going to have, but Penn is amazing for his actors and she was a revelation in Blue Is the Warmest Color. I can’t wait to see her in a Hollywood movie.

3. Cate Blanchett – Knight of Cups – Yes, Terrance Malick has never directed an actor to a nomination. He has never directed Blanchett, though, who can pull a nomination out of any film. Her part looks crazy.

 

4. Helena Bonham Carter – Suffragette – It is difficult early on to know what kinds of parts all the actors will have, but she hasn’t been nominated since 1997 despite tons of great work. A movie about the women’s movement has a great chance of getting a couple acting nominations regardless of how good it is.

5. Lea Seydoux – The Lobster – The other Blue Is the Warmest Color star gets nominated as well. This movie is a dystopian movie that sounds totally bizarre, which should be expected from the director of one of the weirdest movies ever in Dogtooth. I love her prospects to have a superbly insane and brilliant performance in this film.

 

Others in contention

6. Ellen Page – Freeheld – Playing the lesbian opposite Julianne Moore worked well for Annette Bening. I can’t think of a more intriguing couple than Page and Moore. I bet Page puts up quite a battle in search for her second nomination.

7. Hailee Steinfeld – Ten Thousand Saints – She has had a chance to put out a few good performances post True Grit, but she has yet to capitalize. I have to think that she is some sort of love interest for Asa Butterfield, which will be a nice turn, especially with the directing duo pulling the strings.

8. Diane Lane – Trumbo – She is the wife to Bryan Cranston’s lead, a blacklisted Hollywood screenwriter. Lane only has her one nomination back in 2002, but this true Jay Roach movie is going to have something for her that she hasn’t done before, I can feel it.

9. Katey Sagal – Bleed for This – She is the mother character, and in boxing movies, family members always have a strong chance at getting nominated. Everyone loves her TV work, but can that translate to the silver screen?

10. Naomi Watts – Demolition – She put up a fight for Birdman and St. Vincent, which could mean that she could get some sort of a makeup nomination this year. The movie is directed by Jean-Marc Vallee, who has had two actors nominated for each of his last two movies.

11. Olivia Cooke – Me and Earl and the Dying Girl – I have to think that she is the third title character given the movie description, which is always a good thing for voters. She is really talented, despite that string of bad horror flicks she got into after breaking out on Bates Motel.

12. Melanie Laurent – By the Sea – I have been waiting for six years for her to get nominated after getting snubbed for Inglourious Basterds. Maybe the Jolie picture isn’t quite the right movie, but I have to think that it is going to be filled with emotion and she can really own that.

13. Carmen Ejogo – Born to be Blue – She was one of the best parts of Selma, but completely ignored like the rest of the movie. Maybe a dual role in this music film can be the film that brings her to the forefront.

14. Alicia Vikander – Tulip Fever – She has had some good work in the past, and she is the love interest of the main character. There always seems to be a foreign element to the acting categories. There are a bunch of them in this category, but she is in one of the movies to beat overall.

15. Emma Stone – Irrational Man – Fresh off her first nomination, she gets a supporting role in a Woody Allen movie, which we all know leads to nominations more times than not.

16. Charlotte Le Bon – The Walk – She is presumably the love interest to Joseph Gordon-Levitt’s Philippe Petit, which is an interesting role. JGL constantly gets overshadowed (deserved or not), so maybe she will make the most of his understatement.

17. Imogen Poots – Green Room – Poots is in a lot of credible movies, but she has never been a standout. Maybe this movie about a young punk band is the type of material that will let her really open up.

18. Mamie Gummer – Ricki and the Flash – Meryl Streep’s daughter is playing her daughter. That would be a cool story if they are both able to secure nominations. Things like that happen far too infrequently. We will have to see if she can act, though.

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Ken Watanabe – The Sea of Trees – The veteran actor is always a highlight, and it has been 12 years since his only nomination. Playing in a survival movie with McConaughey is juicy, and Van Sant does wonders for his actors. On paper, he is the frontrunner.

2. Christoph Waltz – Spectre / Tulip Fever – The two-time winner stepped down from Tarantino’s movie to do these films, one being an iconic Bond villain, and the other playing presumably some master painter in one of the frontrunners. I think that this is the year that he is recognized for being great at something other than perfectly delivering QT’s words.

3. Jim Broadbent – Brooklyn – His only nomination was his win for Iris in ’01, so he needs a comeback. He is playing a priest in this popular festival movie, and he will certainly have the British vote.

 

4. Jesse Plemons – Icon – We all saw how good he can be in Breaking Bad, and anyone who knows the Lance Armstrong story knows that Floyd Landis is a key character. This could be his big breakout role.

 

5. Patrick Stewart – Green Room – The Shakespearean veteran actor is finally in a movie with some sort of ambition. It does not seem like his kind of movie, which is what has me so intrigued by what he could be. This could be his Sexy Beast.

Others in contention

6. Michael Stuhlbarg – Trumbo – I love the idea of Stuhlbarg playing Edward G. Robinson. I could think about who else could play him for the rest of the day and never find a better fit. He will own this.

7. Dane DeHaan – Life – Playing James Dean has been done before, but rarely is someone as much like Dean as DeHaan. His intense looks and brooding persona are going to make this part something memorable.

8. Woody Harrelson – By Way of Helena  / Triple Nine – Harrelson is playing in a western, which is always a plus. He also has crime drama Triple Nine as a detective, which will be a more complex character than what is on the surface, like in True Detective. He is simply one of the best in the world, and one of these has a great chance of hitting big.

9. Kurt Russell – The Hateful Eight – He has never been nominated, but this was the part that was originally Waltz’s. We know from Death Proof that Tarantino can bring the best out of him.

10. Domhnall Gleeson – The Revenant – He has put in some excellent work recently, and he is one of the main parts of this movie, one with a lot of buzz already. Can he get a nom before his father?

11. Jeffrey Dean Morgan – Desierto – He is presumably the racist border patrol character mentioned in the vague plotline, and he is always an interesting actor to watch. If the movie is big enough, then this could be a sleeper performance.

12. Paul Dano – The Early Years – He is playing a film director opposite Michael Caine. This is the type of role where his crazy energy will be a plus, and it is directed by the filmmaker who won an Oscar for The Great Beauty, so we know it will be classy and extravagant at the same time.

13. Michael Fassbender – Slow West – I hyped this movie last year, only for it to get delayed. It was a huge hit at Sundance, and Fassbender’s mysterious co-lead seems like the type of crazy role that gets recognized. We will see how wide of a release the film gets.

14. Nick Nolte – A Walk in the Woods – I said last year that he and Robert Redford would get nominated for this movie, but once again, it got delayed. He is a veteran who has been through a lot, and yet he still can nail a role when given one. This sounds like a killer part.

15. Ethan Hawke – Ten Thousand Saints – In one of the big sleeper movies of the year, Hawke is playing the father character. Few actors effortlessly play relatable like Hawke, and after Boyhood and his second nom for the Before movies, the Academy might want to give him some award.

16. Bradley Cooper – Joy – He is two for two with David O. Russell, but is overexposure a possibility here? He has three straight nominations, and he is in every other movie, it seems. I am sure he will own this role and maybe get nominated, but it is something to think about.

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Saoirse Ronan – Brooklyn – While she has not really confirmed her talent since her breakout nomination for Atonement, it is clear that she will be around for a long time. The movie was a huge hit at Sundance, which always helps younger actors. She is the favorite at this point.

2. Jennifer Lawrence – Joy – Lawrence is the next Meryl Streep, and this, on paper, is her most challenging role yet. I am positive she will nail it and garner a third straight David O. Russell film nomination.

3. Meryl Streep – Ricki and the Flash / Suffragette / Florence Foster Jenkins – She will be nominated for one (or a couple depending on category campaigns) of course. Will it be the music film? The women’s rights film? The Stephen Frears comedy-drama? All of them at the Globes, I’m sure.

4. Sandra Bullock – Our Brand Is Crisis – She is among the most popular people in the industry, and this one of the frontrunners. If she is the lead, then a nomination will become obvious if the movie doesn’t suck.

 

5. Rooney Mara – Carol / The Secret Scripture – She has the Todd Haynes sexual discovery movie and the Jim Sheridan movie about a stay in a mental hospital. Both of them are going to be buzzed and shoot the attention her way. It’s time for her second nomination.

Others in contention

6. Carey Mulligan – Far From the Maddening Crowd – From the director of the brilliant The Hunt, we get a popular novel adaptation. These types of period pieces are on and off with voters, but this one sounds incredible. The May release might be the only thing holding it back. Mulligan is ready for nom #2 as well.

7. Marion Cotillard – Macbeth – It is clear that the Academy loves her and her movies. Shakespeare is not always an easy sell, but she is playing with Michael Fassbender in one of the most scene-stealing of all of his characters. Look for this to come out of nowhere whenever it gets released.

8. Isabelle Huppert – Louder Than Bombs – This is a stab in the dark, since we know almost nothing about the movie. The director of a couple popular foreign films is making his first American movie, and the cast is dynamite. Watch for her to steal the show.

9. Cate Blanchett – Carol – She is playing the co-lead to Rooney Mara. I am sure the two gifted actresses will push each other to the limit and maybe receive the first double nom in the lead category in 24 years.

10. Angelina Jolie – By the Sea – She still only has two nominations, but at some point the Academy is going to get over whatever they have against her. She is a great director and actress. We will see how good she is at directing herself.

11. Emily Blunt – Sicario – Newfound A-list director Denis Villeneuve gets a killer cast, and Blunt is the lead as an FBI agent trying to take down the Mexican cartel. Sounds like a great role, but we will have to see if it is awards stuff.

12. Julianne Moore – Freeheld – She is coming off her first (and hopefully not last) win, and she has another brilliant-sounding role, but that is not normally enough for Moore to get in. She will need to outshine Page the way she didn’t necessarily do Annette Bening in a similar type role.

13. Margot Robbie – Z for Zachariah – She is being directed by the director of the indie hit Compliance, and it sounds really intriguing. It is listed as sci-fi, but I have to think that there will be more to it given the cast and pedigree.

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Don Cheadle – Miles Ahead – Directing yourself is not always the best thing for the actor, but Cheadle playing Miles Davis is a dream. Can he fair better than Kevin Spacey did directing himself in Beyond the Sea? Absolutely.

2. Matthew McConaughey – The Sea of Trees – He is on top of his game, and he has a role of a lifetime in this movie. He and Watanabe are going to be amazing, and Van Sant does wonders for his actors.

 

3. Liam Neeson – Silence – He took over the part that Daniel Day-Lewis was originally set for, which means that there is something there. He hasn’t been nominated (or really all that good) since 1993. Scorsese can change that.

 

4. Joseph Gordon-Levitt – The Walk – He is one of our best actors who has never been nominated. Watching the documentary, the guy had a world of charisma. Can he capture that? I think he can.

5. Abraham Attah – Beasts of No Nation – The movie is one of the frontrunners, and normally the young actor gets some recognition for them. Boyhood didn’t because this category was so stacked, but this year seems like it has slightly less competition.

 

Others in contention

6. Michael Shannon – Elvis & Nixon  / Midnight Special – Playing Elvis just sounds insane for Shannon, which has me already proclaiming it one of my most anticipated. Midnight Special got delayed from last year, but Shannon in a Jeff Nichols movie? Done.

7. Kevin Spacey – Elvis & Nixon – Spacey playing President Nixon opposite Shannon in a talky comedy of sorts? Yes please. He hasn’t been nominated since 1999. Inexcusable.

8. Miles Teller – Bleed for This – Teller had to have put up a fight for nomination for Whiplash. If this boxing movie is seen by enough eyes, then I am sure that everyone else will realize that he is the next great one. I hope Ben Younger doesn’t disappoint with his first movie in 10 years.

9. Jake Gyllenhaal – Southpaw / Everest / Demolition – Gyllenhaal somehow still has his one nomination, and this year he has a boxing film, a survival/adventure movie, and a crowd-pleaser. If he doesn’t split with himself, he has a great shot at a nom.

10. Tom Hanks – St James Place – He plays a lawyer who helps the CIA rescue a detained pilot in the USSR. It sounds like a great role, especially since Spielberg is at the helm. He hasn’t been invited back since 2000.

11. Michael Caine – The Early Years – He hasn’t been nominated this decade yet, which should change so he can break the record he holds with Jack Nicholson. He is playing a composer opposite Paul Dano. If he is at his best, then this nomination will be a no-brainer.

12. Dane DeHaan – Tulip Fever – With this and playing James Dean, he is going to have his best shot at a nomination yet. For actors like him, it is important to get one early before overexposure really dashes any chances in the future. Ryan Gosling, anyone?

13. Javier Bardem – The Last Face – He plays a doctor in Sean Penn’s political Africa movie. If the movie is not over-the-top, although I don’t think that Bardem is capable of being anything other than compelling, then he will coast into contention.

14. Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic – The movie sounds a bit like The Boys Are Back or Grace is Gone, but Viggo is the lead? Directed by the guy who played Gavin Belson? This should be something else. I bet it is going to be a sleeper hit.

15. Christian Bale – Knight of Cups – Again, Malick has never had an actor nominated. Bale is on a roll, and his part seems like something truly challenging. He is always up for a challenge.

16. Asa Butterfield – Ten Thousand Saints – Butterfield is one of the most interesting young actors out there. The directing duo will bring intrigue to the movie. As long as Attah doesn’t take the child spot, then he has a real chance.

17. Ewan McGregor – Last Days in the Desert – Playing Jesus is not always the best route to a nomination, but he is playing him during his 40 days of temptation in the desert, and he is directed by Rodrigo Garcia, who really does great things for his actors, even in ensemble work. This is more the one-man show.

18. Robert Redford – A Walk in the Woods / Truth – He is playing in self-discovery adventure movie with Nick Nolte, and he is playing Dan Rather. Both of them sound amazing, but so did All Is Lost, which he received an unforgivable snub for. Maybe they just want him to stick to directing.

19. Bryan Cranston – Trumbo – He has yet to really break out in movies. Playing a blacklisted screenwriter will certainly have the industry professionals’ attention, but can the movie be big enough to make waves with the public?

20. Robert Pattinson – Life – He has shown recently that he can be a great actor, so playing in this as the protagonist to DeHaan’s James Dean will certainly give him another chance to show what he can do.

21. Michael Fassbender – The Light Between Oceans/ Steve Jobs – Derek Cianfrance starring Fassbender? Yep. Steve Jobs movie? Sure, why not? He is one of the best in the world. Nominations are going to flood his way for a long, long time.

22. Ben Foster – Icon – He is always incredible, but he is always overlooked. Can playing a character that we know so much about be the key for him to finally get recognized? I think it might be.

23. Joaquin Phoenix – Irrational Man – He is playing a professor in a Woody Allen movie. It is crazy that he has become this master comedic actor after being the most self-serious actor in the industry. He is amazing.

24. Warren Beatty – Untitled Howard Hughes Project – It seems like a much more focused Hughes film than The Aviator, which will play in his favor. He has been gone for so long…does he still have it? He wanted us to think so in that one lifetime achievement acceptance speech a few years back.

25. Ethan Hawke – Born to be Blue – He is playing a jazz legend. We have seen what he can do with music in Boyhood with his original songs, and he is more popular than ever. Maybe he will become a regular.

26. Brad Pitt – By the Sea – I keep mentioning the movie, and the more I do, the more I think I might be crazy for doing so. Pitt is as popular as any actor in the business, and being directed by Jolie is a great opportunity for the Academy to piggyback on the couple once again, like when they were both nominated back in 2008.

27. Johnny Depp – Black Mass – Scott Cooper is directing him playing Whitey Bulger, which is a project that has been proposed and delayed a number of times. Can he do it better than he did Dillinger? We shall see…

BEST DIRECTOR

The Predicted Five

1. Cary Fukunaga – Beasts of No Nation – After True Detective and the talent he showed in directing vastly different styles in Sin Nombre and Jane Eyre, it seems clear that he is ready for the big time. His movie is the one to beat early on, and despite what the last few years have shown, Best Director almost always goes with Best Picture.

2. Terrence Malick – Knight of Cups – He is one of the most revered and mysterious figures in the industry. The movie will need to make waves the way The Tree of Life did and not just get brushed off like To the Wonder. This seems like a return to the allure of his early pictures.

3. Martin Scorsese – Silence – Scorsese has been nominated for Best Director for 4 of his last 5 movies, and the one that didn’t was unfairly bumped to early in the following year. He will be in this category if the movie is done in time.

4. Gus Van Sant – The Sea of Trees – Van Sant seems to be one of the more unheralded directors in the industry, despite making tons of great films and a couple Best Picture nominees. This movie appears to be one where the direction will make or break it. I have to think that the outside-the-box choice of Van Sant will pay dividends.

5. David Gordon Green – Our Brand Is Crisis – He is making his first real serious movie with a point. Joe reaffirmed that he hasn’t completely lost his mind with movies like Your Highness and The Sitter. If he can really get people to look past his name, then I have to think that he and his movie will be recognized.

 

Others in contention

6. John Crowley – Brooklyn – He hasn’t really made a great film since Boy A, but this movie seems to have the type of momentum post-Sundance to really make a run.

7. Sean Penn – The Last Face – He has yet to be nominated in this category, despite doing everything possible to secure a nom for Into the Wild. Everyone knows about Penn and his activism, so maybe they will respect this film and not just write it off.

8. Justin Chadwick – Tulip Fever – He has made a couple nice films, but nothing worthy of real recognition. The movie has been mentioned several times in this article. It has a really good chance of being one of the ones to beat come next year.

9. Robert Zemeckis – The Walk – With movies like these and Our Brand Is Crisis, it all depends on if they can make the feature film better than the documentary. In this case, the doc is one of the best ever, but Zemeckis can do great things. The pressure is on him, but if he hits, it will be astonishing.

10. Steven Spielberg – St James Place – When Spielberg decides to make a movie, we all need to pay attention and assume that he will be in contention at the Oscars. I mean, he was nominated for Munich…they love him too much. This sounds awesome, though.

11. Quentin Tarantino – The Hateful Eight – QT is at the height of his popularity right now, and with him threatening to retire soon, maybe voters will find it necessary to recognize him however they can when they can.

 

12. David O. Russell – Joy – He has had nominations in 7 of the big 8 categories for his last two films, but he also has that strange Accidental Love movie coming out this year that will turn people off. This movie doesn’t necessarily sound like killer Oscar stuff, but they love him and his cast.

13. Anton Corbijn – Life – Even though his movies are not always good, he can really work the camera. Expect the movie about James Dean to look incredible and put his name on the shortlist of most visually interesting directors out there.

14. Todd Haynes – Carol – Haynes is returning to the style that got him recognized for Far from Heaven, but he has never been nominated in this category. If this movie is as good as it can be, then that will change.

15. Alfonso Gomez-Rejon – Me and Earl and the Dying Girl – Having the title of Sundance winner in your back pocket always helps. He is more known for his TV work, but the Academy is more open to recognizing indie directors than would be expected.

16. Angelina Jolie – By the Sea – It all depends on if her movie is good enough. I am sure that Unbroken would have taken her to the ceremony if it was better, but I guess we will just have to see. This sounds like her most personal movie.

17. Jonas Cuaron – Desierto – This is his first real feature film. He showed what he can do with the Gravity companion short Aningaaq, and the Academy loves recognizing families. We will see where this film goes.

18. Ron Howard – In the Heart of the Sea – Howard is always popular with voters, but it depends on what kind of mood they are in. I will never understand why Rush wasn’t a hit, but whatever. Movies like this are usually easy sells.

19. Shari Springer Berman, Robert Pulcini – Ten Thousand Saints – They are past nominees in the screenplay category. This movie will need to sweep audiences off their feet to really have a chance in the major categories, and given the cast, I can see that happening.

20. Ben Younger – Bleed for This – I am going to keep mentioning this film just to get its name out there. Younger is a great director, even though Prime was a joke. Miles Teller is the next great one. Even if his direction is lacking, he can ride what will probably be a monumental performance all the way to the ceremony.

BEST PICTURE

The Predicted Ten (I predict 9 will get nominated)

1. Beasts of No Nation (Cary Fukunaga) – It is the movie with all of the potential. Elba has yet to really establish himself as a great film actor, but this could change that. Seeing that Slumdog Millionaire and The Artist won, it is clear that the cast does not matter for the Academy. Keep an eye out for this one.

2. Knight of Cups (Terrence Malick) – This is the best chance that Malick may ever have at winning it big at the Oscars. It is about Hollywood, which is clearly is what the Academy loves. It is a character study. It is visually interesting. It is being released in December. Watch out.

3. Silence (Martin Scorsese) – Scorsese films are always going to be nominated in this category with the current rules. This is a project that he has been working on for years and years. I expect it to be a masterpiece.

4. Tulip Fever (Justin Chadwick) – The film has everything going for it. It could be the film that no one really knows about until later in the year, which always helps people not getting sick of it. I love its potential.

5. The Sea of Trees (Gus Van Sant) – Movies like these have a much better chance with the current rules. Even if it is nothing more than a tense survival picture, it could still have a good chance at landing in this category. It will be more than that, though.

 

6. Our Brand Is Crisis (David Gordon Green) – Of all the political movies coming out, this is the one that has the best chance at really making waves. It is weird to think of David Gordon Green at the Oscars, but the same could have been said about Richard Linklater a few years back.

7. Brooklyn (John Crowley) – This is certainly the movie in line to get the British vote. If it can sneak its way into US theaters, then a nomination in this category should be no problem.

 

8. St James Place (Steven Spileberg) – It is hard to see the movie not landing in the Best Picture lineup, even if it is lesser Spielberg. Something has to be said about the Coens not wanting to direct their own script, though. Fingers crossed here.

9. The Hateful Eight (Quentin Tarantino) – The movie is going to be a box office smash. His last two films were not exactly Oscar stuff, but they still were able to secure nominations due to their originality. There is going to be something great underneath the ordinary exterior of this film.

10. The Walk (Robert Zemeckis) – The movie has an uphill climb, but I have faith in the project. Zemeckis can do wonders, but he is going to need his best effort ever to really elevate this movie.

 

Others in contention

11. The Last Face (Sean Penn) – We will see how far this movie can go. If the movie is objective and not really over-the-top political, then it will be recognized. I can’t really expect that to be the case with Penn, though.

12. Me and Earl and the Dying Girl (Alfonso Gomez-Rejon) – It is the Sundance winner. That is really all that needs to be said about its chances. It might be an every other year kind of thing, like Woody Allen movies.

13. Joy (David O. Russell) – I would like to think that this movie will be as good and popular as his previous two films, but that is asking a lot. This one will be a tougher sell to wide audiences.

14. Carol (Todd Haynes) – Movies like these are at a peak right now. Haynes has been away for a while, so maybe he has just been polishing this film. I expect greatness, but it all depends on the campaign.

15. Ten Thousand Saints (Shari Springer Berman, Robert Pulcini) – Family-centered films are not always big Best Picture threats, but with the current rules, one could easily sneak in there along with its actors.

16. Life (Anton Corbijn) – This seems like the kind of movie that will not really be heard of until after Toronto, and that is usually a good launching pad for Oscar campaigns.

17. Inside Out (Pete Docter, Ronaldo Del Carmen) – The movie looks amazing, and Docter’s previous film landed in this category. It will need to be just as deep and involving as Up to really have a legitimate shot.

18. The Revenant (Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu) – Inarritu is coming off his best work in the eyes of the Academy, so I expect them to cool off on him for a bit. The movie might be too good to completely ignore, though.

19. In the Heart of the Sea (Ron Howard) – If it is good Ron Howard, then it will be nominated. It got the friendly push to awards season, which either shows faith in the film or a lack of faith in its potential box office.

20. Bleed for This (Ben Younger) – Boxing films are always easy to sell to voters. The studio will really need to get the movie out there to have a chance at getting nominated, though. It will likely be a very small and personal film.

21. By the Sea (Angelina Jolie) – It is hard to deny the A-list couple of all A-list couples. I hope for the best. It sounds great, but will they fully embrace Jolie as a director? It took 3 great films before recognizing Ben Affleck I that way. Jolie has just 2 modest hits. Maybe this film will get under the Academy’s skin and force them to recognize it.

Phew, done! It is a little less in-depth than last year, but it’s still pretty expansive. Any films I overlooked? What are your most anticipated movies/performances? Let me know in the comments.