2018 Pre-Season Profile: Detroit Tigers

#29

The Detroit Tigers started to hit the reset button on their roster at the end of 2017.  Was it enough to compete with a new core in 2018, or will they have further to fall before they get better?

My 2017 Predictions

3rd in NL Central

Brad Ausmus will be fired mid-season.

2017 Results

64-98, 5th in NL Central

The Tigers were a much better team than their final record ended up showing.  However, once they decided to start selling key pieces like Justin Upton, J.D. Martinez, and Justin Verlander, the season went south in a hurry.  Brad Ausmus was always touted as one of those players that would make a great manager, but his marriage with the Tigers was a trainwreck.  I predicted he would be fired mid-season.  It was announced he would be fired before the end of the season, but he was allowed to finish the year.  I hope he gets another opportunity to manage at some point.  I am not willing to write him off as a failure just yet.

Additions / Subtractions

The Tigers continued to transition into re-build mode throughout the offseason.  The biggest name moved over the offseason was All Star second baseman Ian Kinsler being traded to the Angels.  There were rumors surrounding players like Miguel Cabrera and Michael Fulmer, but nothing ever materialized.  Outside of a a veteran signing here or there of guys like Leonys Martin, the Tigers felt content with developing a new young core alongside the remaining veterans they can't / refuse to move.  Possibly the biggest offseason transaction was hiring Ron Gardenhire as their new manager.  One of the most respected coaches in all of baseball, Gardenhire will be a welcome stabilizing force after the dysfunction that marred Ausmus's tenure as manager.

Most Important Hitter

Miguel Cabrera

Even through a rebuild, the Tigers start and end with Miguel Cabrera.  We seemed to watch him age 10 years before our eyes during 2017, going from one of the greatest offensive forces of his generation to a broken down veteran on the brink of retirement in one season.  In his age 34 season, Miggy had a negative WAR in 2017.  Outside of his rookie season, he has only posted a WAR below 3.0 once (his first season in Detroit).  There has to more in the tank, at least the Tigers are hoping so.  He is under a behemoth contract through 2023, with two option years on top of that.  Cabrera needs to be more than the shell of himself he was in 2017, either so Detroit can get more production out of his contract or to give him trade value so someone is convinced he is worth dealing for.  Either way, this is an important year for Miggy and his relationship with the Tigers.

Most Important Pitcher

Daniel Norris

Daniel Norris was the key piece the Tigers received back in the David Price trade with the Blue Jays in 2015.  He was thought to be a potential ace of the staff moving forward.  However, his Tiger career has been defined by injuries and disappointment instead of production and success.  The ability of a player like Norris to finally deliver on his potential will determine how long this Tiger rebuild will take.

Prospect to Watch

Franklin Perez

Franklin Perez was the key piece Detroit got back in last year's Justin Verlander trade with the Astros.  Sometimes, it takes years to see the true results of a prospect-laden deal like this one, however Perez has a good chance of playing a role for the Tigers this season.  This 20 year-old hurler should be a fun rookie to watch the second half of this season, especially if the Tigers are out of contention.

2018 Prediction

5th in AL Central

Unfortunately, it looks like the Tigers are still working their way down to rock bottom before they can start getting better.  They do have some decent prospects working through their system, especially on the pitching end, but most are not as close to contributing as Perez.  They remind me of the Philadelphia Phillies a couple years ago.  They got stuck being over-committed to some veterans past their prime that they needed to stick with before they could move on and improve.  The Tigers are hoping this isn't the case quite yet with guys like Cabrera, Victor Martinez, and Jordan Zimmermann, but they are looking more like terrible investments that will hurt the franchise for the next few years.  The highlights of the Tigers' season will occur in July when Tiger legends Alan Trammel and Jack Morris are inducted into the Hall of Fame.

Fearless Prediction

2018 will be Victor Martinez's last season, and he will not finish it on the Tigers' roster.

Victor Martinez is entering his age 39 season, which is also a contract year for him.  After injuries plagued his 2017 season, Martinez needs to show he can still be of value to a team.  Either he shows there is still a little in the tank and gets traded to a contender, or he shows that the tank is empty and the Tigers release him.  Either way, he doesn't end the season as a Tiger, and this is probably his last dance.

2017 Pre-Season Profile: Detroit Tigers

#17

The Detroit Tigers went from the cellar in 2015 to a step away from the playoffs in 2016.  With a rebound like that, will they continue to climb the ladder in 2017 or fall back to a few rungs?

My 2016 Predictions

1st in AL Central, lose in ALCS

Jordan Zimmermann will win the AL Cy Young.

2016 Results

86-75, 2nd in AL Central

I correctly predicted that 2015 was a one year plunge down the AL Central standings.  What I, and many others, did not predict was the meteoric rise of the Cleveland Indians that kept the Tigers from winning the division.  Without the Indians, I may have had this right on last year.  The one thing I did not get right at all was Jordan Zimmermann.  He started the year off hot, but injuries derailed a promising season.  Who knows, he may have ended up in the Cy Young race.

Additions / Subtractions

In past years, the Tigers have signed marquee free agents like Zimmermann and Justin Upton, or pulled blockbuster trades for guys like David Price and Yoenis Cespedes.  This offseason was bizarrely quiet.  The Tigers return almost the exact same roster as last season.  The one difference is Cameron Maybin moving on to the Angels, and the low level trade for Mikie Mahtook, an outfielder struggling to make the roster for the Rays.

Most Important Hitter

Justin Upton

It was a shock to a lot of people when Justin Upton signed with the Tigers last offseason.  Then, he went on and had a terrible start to 2016.  His numbers ended up respectable, but he needs to have a much stronger year this year for the Tigers to contend.  Upton has always been on the brink of being a superstar, but he has never found himself thought of as one of the game's best.  At 29 years old, he still has a few peak years left, but his window is closing quick.

Most Important Pitcher

Jordan Zimmermann

They brought in Zimmermann last year and paid him like an ace to complement Justin Verlander.  Instead, injuries derailed his season, much like a good portion of his career so far.  With the resurgence of Justin Verlander and emergence of Michael Fulmer, Jordan Zimmermann could make this pitching staff great.

Player to Watch

Joe Jimenez

The Tigers do not have a lot of top prospects knocking on the big league door, but one that has a chance to have a huge impact at the big league level is Joe Jimenez.  Francisco Rodriguez has a limited number of bullets left as the closer for the Tigers.  Joe Jimenez appears to be his successor once he is ready.  This could have as early as mid-season 2017.

2017 Prediction

3rd in AL Central

The Tigers are getting old.  Their window is closing quickly.  Miguel Cabrera is 34, Justin Verlander is 34, Ian Kinsler is 35, and Victor Martinez is 38.  With the talent of some other teams in this division, and the age of the Tigers, it is looking like the window for this Tigers team is just about closed.  If it isn't closed, this is possibly the last year they can compete before they make some wholesale changes.

Fearless Prediction

Brad Ausmus will be fired mid-season.

I'll be honest, Brad Ausmus has not been the greatest manager in the world.  At the same time, a roster of stars on the wrong side of 30 with a first time manager is not quite a fair situation.  There was a lot of talk that Ausmus wasn't even going to make it to 2017 in Detroit.  However you want to look at it, the manager is usually blamed for an underachieving team.  Ausmus will not last long.  Look for Lloyd McClendon, the man who should have replaced Jim Leyland in the first place, to fill in as interim manager if Ausmus get the ax.

2016 Pre-Season Profile: Detroit Tigers

Over the past decade or so, the Detroit Tigers have been one of the strongest franchises in all of baseball.  After a down year, will their aging core bounce back or continue to drift away?

Last Season

My 2015 Prediction: 2nd in AL Central

2015 Results: 74-87, 5th in AL Central

Heading into the Trade Deadline last season, the Tigers were still realistically in the running for a playoff spot.  They had to decide whether to be buyers or sellers moving forward.  They chose sellers, giving up on their season in 2015 to have better opportunities moving forward.  By moving Yoenis Cespedes and David Price at the Deadline, they were able to gather in some prospects on expiring contracts they most likely were not going to re-sign.

2016 Additions / Subtractions

The Tigers were quite active in the offseason.  Their main subtractions were Cespedes and Price at the Trade Deadline in 2015, however they were able to replace them quite well with Justin Upton (changing uniforms for the third time in four years) and Jordan Zimmermann in free agency.  Then they upgraded their closer with Francisco Rodriguez and upgraded centerfield with Cameron Maybin.  Add in a role player like Mike Aviles, and it is easy to see the Tigers are much improved from where they were in September.

Most Important Hitter

Miguel Cabrera

This seems like a no-brainer, but last year proved just how much the Tigers' success is tied to Cabrera's health.  Miggy isn't necessarily old yet, but he is starting to age as this will be his age 33 season.  Even with all the fire power in their lineup, it all revolves around the man who is still the best hitter in baseball.  If he stays healthy, there is no limit to how far the Tigers can go.

Most Important Pitcher

Justin Verlander

I think Jordan Zimmermann will end up being the best pitcher on the Tigers' staff this season.  With that said, Verlander is their most important pitcher.  The former MVP is a shell of his former self, but he started to show the second half of last season that he can still be successful even if the radar gun doesn't hit triple digits anymore.  He needs to keep pitching like this throughout the entire 2016 season and show that he can combine with Zimmerman to be a formidable top two starters in the league.

Player to Watch

Steven Moya

Most of the Tigers' prospects are still a few years away from making a serious impact at the major league level.  The one most likely to make an impact is Steven Moya, a 6'7" 260 pound power hitting corner outfielder.  He made his big league debut down the stretch last season, and has the potential to have an impact in 2016 if there is an injury to any of the Tigers' big sluggers (Cabrera, Upton, Victor Martinez, JD Martinez).  If the Tigers have a strong season, Moya might be trade bait to improve the roster down the stretch.  If the Tigers disappoint, perhaps some of the aging stars for the Tigers will be traded to make room for Moya.

2016 Prediction

1st in AL Central, lose in ALCS

The Tigers have a lot of fire power all over their roster.  They might be one of the best all-around rosters in baseball.  Look for them to have a strong season and show once again that they are the class of the AL Central.  They will fall short of the ultimate goal, but after finishing in the cellar in 2015, a first place divisional finish will make for a great bounce back year.  The window is starting close for this team though.

Fearless Prediction

Jordan Zimmermann will win the AL Cy Young.

Jordan Zimmermann was always the most underrated pitcher in the Nationals' rotation, at least since Stephen Strasburg came along.  Moving to one of the better pitchers' parks in the league should resurrect Zimmermann's career to superstar status s he has potentially the best year of his career.  Leading his new team to first place could make him the top pitcher in the American League.

MLB Year in Review: ASG-to-ASG 2014

Growing up, I watched a lot of ESPN and SportsCenter.  It was one of the primary viewing choices of my childhood.  This made this mid-July week somewhat of a downer growing up since nothing happens in the sports world outside the MLB All Star Game.  SportsCenter is always looking for interesting topics for this lackluster sports week.  Nowadays, this doesn't change the SportsCenter programming at all since all they talk about now is the NFL and LeBron James all year anyways.  When I was a kid, believe it or not, SportsCenter still considered baseball as a relevant sport worth covering.  So while baseball was taking a break, they still worked to find baseball stories to talk about.  One of my favorite baseball pieces they did every year during the All Star Break was determine who had the best last 162 games.  They would calculate stats from the last All Star Break to the current All Star Break and compare them as full season stats.  Unfortunately, SportsCenter is too busy debating the first pick in next year's NFL draft to waste time on this fascinating premise.  So I have decided to compile all these stats on my own and determine who would has had the best last full season.

Here is the process I went through.  I went through the league leaders from Post All Star 2013 stats and the 2014 first half stats.  For the hitters, I compiled the top 50 leaders in both time frames in hits, doubles, home runs, RBI's, and runs.  This gave me 160 hitters I compiled stats for from the last year.  For the pitchers, I went through the same process with wins, innings pitched, strikeouts, and saves (only calculated the top 30 in saves).  I realize this left out the always-overlooked middle reliever, but oh well.  They are always overlooked anyways so one more time won't be too tragic.  This resulted in 151 pitchers to compare.  Let's look at some top lists.

AL Batting Average

Victor Martinez – DET	.343
Robinson Cano – NYY / SEA	.333
Adrian Beltre – TEX	.327
Mike Trout – LAA	.316
Jose Altuve – HOU	.315
JD Martinez – HOU / DET	.322

not enough AB's

It turns out the amazingly hot starts this year from Victor Martinez and Jose Altuve actually started last season.  This is also not the last time you will see Mike Trout's name.

NL Batting Average

Andrew McCutchen – PIT	.330
Scooter Gennett – MIL	.325
Troy Tulowitzki – COL	.323
Freddie Freeman – ATL	.311
Charlie Blackmon – COL	.310
Michael Cuddyer – COL	.327
Casey McGehee – MIA	.319

not enough AB's

Much like Martinez and Altuve, Charlie Blackmon's hot start this year was foreshadowed by a strong finish last year.  Freddie Freeman is turning into one of the best all-around hitters in the league.  Also, Scooter Gennett has to be the best player nobody has heard of.

AL Home Runs

Edwin Encarnacion – TOR	37
Brandon Moss – OAK	35
Mike Trout – LAA	34
Nelson Cruz – TEX / BAL	33
Chris Davis – BAL	31
David Ortiz – BOS	31

What I noticed from this list is most of these players have been quite inconsistent.  Either they ended last year strong or started this year strong, with the exception of Trout.  By the way, Jose Abreu almost made this list without playing at all last season.

NL Home Runs

Giancarlo Stanton – MIA	35
Paul Goldschmidt – ARZ	31
Troy Tulowitzki – COL	30
Anthony Rizzo – CHC	30
Andrew McCutchen – PIT	28
Justin Upton – ATL	28
Todd Frazier – CIN	28

There are a few players on this list that just don't get the credit they deserve.  Anthony Rizzo will be a centerpiece of the Cubs latest attempt to rebuild (which might actually work with his bat leading the way).  Also, Paul Goldschmidt is a beast.  I give him 2 more seasons before he gets traded out of Arizona so people actually recognize how good he is.

AL RBI

Miguel Cabrera – DET	117
Mike Trout – LAA	111
Brandon Moss – OAK	109
David Ortiz – BOS	102
Edwin Encarnacion – TOR	102

Here is the first appearance by Miguel Cabrera, which shows that he hasn't been at his Triple Crown level since pre-All Star 2013.  Also, looking at his numbers, how wasn't David Ortiz an All Star?  Also, as a Mariners fan I refuse to give Brandon Moss any credit.

NL RBI

Paul Goldschmidt – ARZ	109
Jayson Werth – WAS	103
Adrian Gonzalez – LAD	101
Freddie Freeman – ATL	100
Giancarlo Stanton – MIA	98

There's Goldschmidt's name again.  I was surprised to see someone like Jayson Werth putting up these kind of numbers.  No one talks about him, but he has been one of the best run producers of the last year.

AL OPS (On-Base + Slugging)

Mike Trout – LAA	1.014
Victor Martinez – DET	.956
Edwin Encarnacion – TOR	.952
Miguel Cabrera – DET	.929
Brandon Moss – OAK	.911
Jose Abreu – CWS	.968
JD Martinez – HOU / DET	.942

not enough AB's

OPS has become one of the top stats for a hitter's overall production so this is a great one to look at.  No one quite appreciates just how good Jose Abreu has been this first half.  He is already one of the greatest hitters in the league after just half a season.  Here you can also see just how ridiculous Mike Trout is.  Once again, he is from another AL West rival so I hate giving credit, but Trout is impossible to ignore.  Also, over the last year Miguel Cabrera hasn't even been the best hitter on his team.

NL OPS

Andrew McCutchen – PIT	.995
Troy Tulowitzki – COL	.966
Paul Goldschmidt – ARZ	.950
Freddie Freeman – ATL	.904
Giancarlo Stanton – MIA	.904

This top five shouldn't be surprising.  If you ask anyone for the best top five hitters in the National League, these five names should be the first ones said ... unless you run into some of those ignorant idiots that try to say Yasiel Puig or Bryce Harper.

AL Wins

Max Scherzer – DET	19
Rick Porcello – DET	19
James Shields – KC	18
Jared Weaver – LAA	18
Mark Buehrle – TOR	17

How is Detroit not the best team in the AL?  They have two of the best hitters in the league and the only two 19-win pitchers in the league.  And neither of them are named Verlander.  James Shields doesn't get the respect he deserves either.

NL Wins

Clayton Kershaw – LAD	19
Adam Wainwright – STL	19
Zack Greinke – LAD	18
Jorge De La Rosa – COL	17
Hyun-Jin Ryu – LAD	17

After looking at these stats, it is hard to argue against the Dodgers having the best pitching staff in the league.  They have three of the top five in wins.  You expect Wainwright to be on this list, but De La Rosa?!?  Since when does a pitcher for the Rockies have quality stats?

AL ERA (150 IP Min.)

Hisashi Iwakuma – SEA	2.58
Jon Lester – BOS	2.62
Anibal Sanchez – DET	2.63
Chris Sale – CWS	2.71
Felix Hernandez – SEA	2.74

Even with his injury and recent struggles, Hisashi Iwakuma has the best ERA over the last year.  It's easy for him to not get the credit he deserves when King Felix had the best first half in the league this year.

AL ERA Overall

Koji Uehara – BOS	1.07
Greg Holland – KC	1.22
Casey Janssen – TOR	1.79
Zach Britton – BAL	1.82
Joe Smith – LAA	2.07

The numbers and names at the top are to be expected.  The last two names on the list might be surprising though.

NL ERA (150IP Min.)

Clayton Kershaw – LAD	1.68
Johnny Cueto – CIN	2.02
Andrew Cashner – SD	2.25
Zack Greinke – LAD	2.34
Tanner Roark – WAS	2.53

Kershaw, are you kidding me?!?  If he goes on a couple more scoreless runs, he might challenge that Bob Gibson record of a 1.12 ERA this year.  Also, stop talking about Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmerman, Gio Gonzalez, and Doug Fister.  Tanner Roark is the Nat's fifth starter and the best one they have had over the last year.

NL ERA Overall

Huston Street – SD	1.06
Craig Kimbrel – ATL	1.43
Clayton Kershaw – LAD	1.68
Jose Fernandez – MIA	1.81
Johnny Cueto – CIN	2.02

The most underrated player in the league is by far Huston Street.  He is the best closer in the league, and he doesn't even make the All Star Team.  His ERA is even lower than Koji's.  I find this whole list interesting as only two closers made the list.  The rest are the top starters including Jose Fernandez who would be challenging Kershaw in every stat category if he hadn't gotten hurt.

AL K's

Yu Darvish – TEX	262
David Price – TB	248
Max Scherzer – DET	234
Felix Hernandez – SEA	230
Jon Lester – BOS	208

This is another top five that is exactly who you would expect it to be.  No surprises here.

NL K's

Stephen Strasburg – WAS	231
Clayton Kershaw – LAD	219
Tyson Ross – SD	211
Zack Greinke – LAD	207
AJ Burnett – PIT / PHI	207

You might be surprised to see the old man, AJ Burnett, on here, of whom I heard recently from an analyst is the most overpaid player in baseball history.  At least he strikes guys out.  The other noteworthy thing here is Tyson Ross.  This is the second Padres starter to appear on one of these lists which shows that they are working their way in the right direction.  They just need some hitting.  Some familiar, Seattle?

AL Innings Pitched

David Price – TB	254 1/3
James Shields – KC	224 2/3
Justin Verlander – DET	221 1/3
RA Dickey – TOR	221
Jon Lester – BOS	216 2/3

I find this an interesting list because it shows who might be due for a disappointing second half simply for being overworked.  David Price has thrown 30 more innings than everyone else in the league over the last year.  Buyer beware for those looking to trade for him.

NL Innings Pitched

Adam Wainwright – STL	233
AJ Burnett – PIT / PHI	222 2/3
Wade Miley – ARZ	213
Zack Greinke – LAD	211 1/3
Kyle Lohse – MIL	210 1/3

Here are some great innings eaters in Wainwright, Greinke, and Lohse.  Again, I don't see how people hate on AJ Burnett.  I'm also impressed with Wade Miley as he has needed to step up and the ace after Corbin went down in Spring Training.

AL Saves

Greg Holland – KC	50
Fernando Rodney – TB / SEA	42
Glen Perkins – MIN	37
Joe Nathan – TEX / DET	32
Koji Uehara – BOS	31

Few would argue that Holland has the most dominant stuff in the AL at closer.  Looking at these numbers, it was totally justified that Glen Perkins closed out the All Star Game.  Also, for all his struggles, Joe Nathan has still racked up a respectable amount of saves.  (Honorable Mention - Addison Reed has 37 saves over this time, but has played for both leagues.)

NL Saves

Craig Kimbrel – ATL	53
Kenley Jansen – LAD	46
Huston Street – SD	42
Rafael Soriano – WAS	40
Sergio Romo – SF	39

Craig Kimbrel might be the most automatic three outs in league history.  Once again, look at the number of saves for Huston Street for a team that never reaches the .500 mark.

Looking at these stats, here are the top 5 hitters, starters, and closers ASG-to-ASG.

Hitters

		Team	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	1B	RBI	BB	SO	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Mike	Trout	LAA	155	564	109	178	36	6	34	102	111	116	161	22	.316	.432	.582	1.014
Andrew	McCutchen	PIT	160	594	98	196	40	9	28	119	96	99	120	22	.330	.426	.569	.995
Troy	Tulowitzki	COL	151	524	102	169	29	1	30	109	82	80	99	2	.323	.412	.553	.966
Victor	Martinez	DET	146	554	74	190	36	0	27	127	88	55	41	2	.343	.402	.554	.956
Paul	Goldschmidt	ARZ	161	607	109	182	49	4	31	98	109	105	157	14	.300	.403	.547	.950

Starters

		Team	W	L	ERA	G	GS	SV	SVO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	AVG	WHIP	K/BB	K/9
Clayton	Kershaw	LAD	19	5	1.68	27	27	0	0	187	134	38	35	9	30	219	.193	0.88	7.3	10.5
Adam	Wainwright	STL	19	8	2.59	33	33	0	0	233	189	68	67	13	47	204	.213	1.01	4.3	7.9
Max	Scherzer	DET	19	5	2.99	32	32	0	0	211	169	73	70	18	60	234	.211	1.09	3.9	10.0
Jon	Lester	BOS	16	9	2.62	32	32	0	0	216 2/3	200	78	63	12	51	208	.235	1.16	4.1	8.6
Felix	Hernandez	SEA	13	8	2.74	31	31	0	0	210	164	72	64	9	45	230	.207	1.00	5.1	9.9

Closers

		Team	W	L	ERA	G	GS	SV	SVO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	AVG	WHIP	K/BB	K/9
Craig	Kimbrel	ATL	2	2	1.43	71	0	53	58	69 1/3	34	14	11	2	23	106	.140	0.82	4.6	13.8
Greg	Holland	KC	1	2	1.22	68	0	50	52	66 2/3	43	9	9	4	17	96	.177	0.90	5.6	13.0
Huston	Street	SD	3	1	1.06	60	0	42	44	59 1/3	32	7	7	5	13	62	.152	0.76	4.8	9.4
Koji	Uehara	BOS	7	3	1.07	71	0	31	33	75 2/3	36	9	9	6	7	98	.137	0.57	14.0	11.7
Kenley	Jansen	LAD	2	3	2.48	72	0	46	50	69	48	19	19	4	22	108	.188	1.01	4.9	14.1

To check out all the stats I compiled, click the link below.

2013-2014 ASG-TO-ASG STATS