2018 Oscar Predictions: Final (Major Categories)

The Oscar nominations are coming up on January 23^rd! This means it is time for my final predictions in all categories. This year has a lot of factors that keep the race up in the air, particularly the #MeToo movement, lingering #OscarsSoWhite frustrations, a horror-comedy in the forefront of the Oscar race, as well as backlash to the perceived frontrunner in the major categories Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Nothing this year is set in stone, except for the fact that The Shape of Water is going to make a run at a record 15 nominations. Read up on the major categories, as well as my ARTISTIC AND TECHNICAL CATEGORIES PREDICTIONS, which also includes my predicted nominations count for each movie!

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

1. Call Me by Your Name – James Ivory – Adapted Screenplay is incredibly weak this year, but this is a beautiful script by a 3 time nominee who is probably making his last film. It is his time.

2. Mudbound – Dee Rees, Virgil Williams – The screenplay was actually quite rich, and if the movie gets rewarded somewhere, it will probably be in this category.

3. Molly’s Game – Aaron Sorkin – The screenplay is vintage Sorkin. He has won once, but nominations are not always guaranteed. I put him third in case he gets another snub like he got for Steve Jobs.

4. The Disaster Artist – Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber – The movie has its moments, and this writing duo has had some gems, but they are always ignored. This seems like the time for their first nomination.

5. All the Money in the World – David Scarpa – The movie has won the publicity vote, which could carry with it a couple nominations that aren’t necessarily deserved. This is a stab in the dark, but I can see it happening.

Others in contention

6. Wonder – Stephen Chbosky, Steve Conrad, Jack Thorne – The movie has had a nice box office, but this nomination would seem a little bizarre. Several people are predicting it, but my gut is that it gets the shaft.

7. The Beguiled – Sofia Coppola – The movie seems forgotten by most of the awards, but it was a Cannes darling, and Coppola is a past winner. This could surprise and pop in up a couple places.

8. Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool – Matt Greenhalgh – The movie got a big time boost from the BAFTA nominations, but it will all depend on if any Americans actually saw it prior to voting.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

1. Lady Bird – Greta Gerwig – If Gerwig is going to be rewarded, and I hope she is, it will be in this category.

2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – Martin McDonagh – It is probably the frontrunner on paper, but the backlash can take its toll. McDonagh will have to wait another year before his first win.

3. Get Out – Jordan Peele – Peele is a definite threat to take this award. It is the most creative and daring screenplay of the year. If he wins here, then it has a real shot at Best Picture, regardless if he gets a Director nom or not.

4. The Shape of Water – Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor – Del Toro’s film will be nominated basically everywhere it is eligible. This is an easy prediction.

5. The Post – Liz Hannah, Josh Singer – This fifth spot is really interesting. I suspect that The Post will play well with Academy voters and will sneak in over much more accomplished films and screenwriters.

Others in contention

6. The Big Sick – Kumail Nanjiani, Emily V. Gordon – It would be sad if it gets snubbed, but it just seems like a foregone conclusion, especially after the Globes debacle.

7. I, Tonya – Steven Rogers – The WGA nomination was a boost, but the movie will be an acting contender at the Oscars only.

8. Phantom Thread – Paul Thomas Anderson – He is typically nominated every time in the writing categories, but the movie seems very understated. However, if he gets in, I will not be shocked at all. He was even nominated for Inherent Vice.

9. Dunkirk – Christopher Nolan – He is another consistent contender in these categories, but the movie lacks significant dialogue, which could play against its chances.

10. The Florida Project – Sean Baker, Chris Bergoch – Sadly, the movie is not making as strong of a push at the awards circuits as it could have. If it shows up here, then we could be looking at a Best Picture nom as well.

11. Coco – Lee Unkrich, Jason Katz, Matthew Aldrich, Adrian Molina – Pixar is always in contention. Even though this is not being talked about by many, the acclaim is almost universal and can ride the Pixar wave all the way to the ceremony.

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Allison Janney – I, Tonya – She has the showiest role, not to mention mom role, in the category. The veteran actor gets her first overdue nom/win.

2. Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird – She is probably the more deserving contender, but she is less of a film actress than Janney. She is an easy nominee, but unfortunately she’ll probably come up just short.

3. Hong Chau – Downsizing – She has all the right precursors, and while the movie is not well received at all, she gets in on her beautiful and heartfelt performance.

4. Mary J. Blige – Mudbound – She also has a song in the running. If the Academy gets over their Netflix bias, then she should coast to a nomination here.

5. Holly Hunter – The Big Sick – While she has been overlooked by some, the SAG nod secures her nomination.

Others in contention

6. Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water – Her part was so small that I feel like she gets left off, just barely. She doesn’t need a third nomination already.

7. Lesley Manville – Phantom Thread – The BAFTA nomination and supposedly still lingering snub for Another Year has her as a dark horse in the category.

8. Tiffany Haddish – Girls Trip – If the Academy wants to throw in a wildcard, then this performance is it. They nominated a similar type role for Melissa McCarthy, and Haddish did win over the NYFCC in her memorable victory speech.

Annual Tommy Lee Jones (In the Valley of Elah) Shocker Nomination: Nicole Kidman – The Killing of a Sacred Deer

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – He has taken the precursors thus far, and he has never been nominated before. He finally has his chance.

2. Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project – The veteran actor just unfortunately is stuck in a movie that is being largely forgotten otherwise. He is this year’s Sylvester Stallone in Creed.

3. Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water – His performance is not flashy, but he has good lines and is quirky enough to get swept in with the love for the film.

4. Christopher Plummer – All the Money in the World – Plummer was put in an impossible situation and won everyone over. His efforts and goodwill get him the film’s lone nomination.

5. Armie Hammer – Call Me by Your Name – The SAG snub was discouraging, but in the end, I find it hard to think that he won’t be mentioned on nomination morning. He was every bit as good as Chalamet.

Others in contention

6. Michael Stuhlbarg – Call Me by Your Name – He has one great speech, plus he has two other Best Picture contenders. He could get the John C. Reilly nomination if the Academy loves the movie more than SAG.

7. Woody Harrelson – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – The SAG nomination was a boost, but I think/hope that the voters will gravitate toward Rockwell before Harrelson.

8. Steve Carell – Battle of the Sexes – He is a dark horse. The SAG and Globe nominations are key, but the movie is forgotten otherwise.

9. Jason Mitchell – Mudbound – He has been ignored unjustly throughout the process. If the Academy is ok with Netflix this year, then he could pop in out of nowhere.

Annual Tommy Lee Jones (In the Valley of Elah) Shocker Nomination: Michael Shannon – The Shape of Water

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – The past winner will take home her second trophy for her furious performance in the Best Picture contender.

2. Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird – Ronan is becoming a contender every year, and if there is an upset of McDormand, it will be from her. If she wins, then this is absolutely our Best Picture winner.

3. Margot Robbie – I, Tonya – She has a complete transformation in the film, which is always looked on fondly by voters. She’ll have to wait for a win, but her first nomination is guaranteed.

4. Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water – This is another easy nomination in the Best Picture contender. Her second nomination will be less of a surprise, and if she wins, then this is absolutely our Best Picture winner.

5. Meryl Streep – The Post – There are other worthy performances, but predicting she will get snubbed hasn’t worked since 2004.

Others in contention

6. Jessica Chastain – Molly’s Game – She is the true deserving winner, but I fear that the Academy will not love the movie as much as they should.

7. Judi Dench – Victoria and Abdul – She has the important precursors, and she is Dame Judi Dench, but don’t even know a single person who saw or wanted to see this movie. It gets left off in every category.

8. Emma Stone – Battle of the Sexes – It might be her best performance, but the movie does kinda suck, and it underperformed at the box office and in the precursors. And she just won, so a snub here is understandable.

Annual Tommy Lee Jones (In the Valley of Elah) Shocker Nomination: Daniela Vega – A Fantastic Woman

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour – With the wins so far, unless he gets beat at SAG, he will finally pick up his first trophy for his transformation into Winston Churchill.

2. Timothee Chalamet – Call Me by Your Name – He gave the best performance by anyone in 2017, but the Academy will see it as more of a breakout role than anything else. I have him winning next year in my 2019 PREDICTIONS.

3. Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread – The nomination is looking more and more likely, and as more people see the film, perhaps they will send him a parting gift and record-tying 4^th win.

4. Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out – He has hit every precursor; he is getting nominated. But there’s no chance he can win.

5. Denzel Washington – Roman J. Israel, Esq. – The movie has been forgotten and was sort of a flop. But there are probably still a lot of voters who feel bad for not giving him the win last year. He takes the fifth spot.

Others in contention

6. James Franco – The Disaster Artist – The sexual harassment allegations are looming, and despite how awesome he was and having won at the Globes and Critics Choice, I fear an unjust snub here.

7. Tom Hanks – The Post – He hasn’t been nominated in forever. If he shows up here, then we have to look at The Post as a real BP contender.

Annual Tommy Lee Jones (In the Valley of Elah) Shocker Nomination: Harry Dean Stanton - Lucky

BEST DIRECTOR

The Predicted Five

1. Guillermo del Toro – The Shape of Water – He has won the big ones so far, and his movie is looking at a record amount of nominations if things go right. It would be hard to deny him an award here.

2. Martin McDonagh – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – His movie is in the driver’s seat, and it is his finest work yet. But he is up against a juggernaut.

3. Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird – The DGA nomination secured this nomination. It would be so cool if she somehow wins the thing.

4. Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk – Nolan finally has a movie that appeals to all voters, and the vast amount of technical nominations should be enough for him to get his first nom.

5. Steven Spielberg – The Post – He always defies the odds and gets nominated whether he deserves it or not. He has lost his touch…too bad the Academy can’t see that.

Others in contention

6. Jordan Peele – Get Out – Unfortunately, that leaves off Peele, which would likely be detrimental to the film’s Best Picture chances. I hope I’m wrong on this.

7. Dee Rees – Mudbound – My preseason pick to win the category is looking less likely, but if the Academy can get over the streaming thing, then her searing drama could lift her to a nomination.

8. Luca Guadagnino – Call Me by Your Name – This would be the equivalent to Lenny Abrahamson in 2015 getting in, which no one is really expecting, but the Academy might really take to the film and carry him in with the love.

9. Ridley Scott – All the Money in the World – How he handled the Kevin Spacey ordeal might be an overwhelming factor that could boost him into the conversation, much like it was at the Globes. It is hard to predict that, but I wouldn’t doubt it.

BEST PICTURE

The Predicted Ten (I predict 7 will get nominated)

1. Lady Bird (Greta Gerwig) – It is good enough, and no one dislikes it. In the current era and voting structure of the Academy, that is all that is required to win.

2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Martin McDonagh) – It has the backlash, which makes it just divisive enough to take away its award that it so richly deserves.

3. The Shape of Water (Guillermo del Toro) – It will be nominated everywhere, but that is not enough to take this award home. It is this year’s Benjamin Button.

4. Dunkirk (Christopher Nolan) – The movie will be put on this list for its craftsmanship more than anything else, which will play well with the old Oscar voters.

5. Get Out (Jordan Peele) – Everything points to this movie being nominated, and because there really isn’t anyone who will have it lower than maybe 3 or 4 on their ballot, I would watch out for a shocker win here.

6. The Post (Steven Spielberg) – The movie is old fashioned and will be a hit with the older voters. Spielberg is always in contention, even for his garbage like Bridge of Spies and War Horse.

7. Mudbound (Dee Rees) – Netflix finally gets its first nomination. The PGA snub was discouraging, but it overcomes it.

8. The Big Sick (Michael Showalter) – I fear that the film will just not have enough 1^st place votes to get in. Everyone likes it, but no one has it #1. The SAG ensemble nomination is interesting, however…

9. The Florida Project (Sean Baker) – The movie has its fans, but A24 did not do a great campaign, and not enough voters saw it.

10. Call Me by Your Name (Luca Guadagnino) – It should be up there, but the subject matter and lack of real star power will bring it down a notch and leave it just on the outside.

Others in contention

11. I, Tonya (Craig Gillespie) – The film has been a hit, and the PGA nomination was a legitimate boost. It could surprise if there are 8 or 9 nominees.

12. Molly’s Game (Aaron Sorkin) – The PGA put it on their list, which was encouraging. It is a great film, but even I admit that a Best Picture nomination would be a little bizarre.

13. Wonder Woman (Patty Jenkins) – There seems to always be a blockbuster movie in the PGA lineup that has no chance (The Hangover, Bridesmaids, etc.), but this feels different. Keep an eye out here…

That’s all for the major categories! What are your predictions? Comment below! Also, check out my ARTS AND TECHS PREDICTIONS, which also features my predicted nominations count for each film mentioned!

2018 Oscar Predictions: Final (Artistic and Technical Categories)

Link to the big 8 categories: HERE

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Blade Runner 2049

2. Dunkirk

3. The Shape of Water

4. Mudbound

5. Darkest Hour

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. The Shape of Water

2. Blade Runner 2049

3. Darkest Hour

4. Beauty and the Beast

5. Dunkirk

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Phantom Thread

2. Beauty and the Beast

3. The Shape of Water

4. The Greatest Showman

5. Murder on the Orient Express

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. Dunkirk

2. The Shape of Water

3. Blade Runner 2049

4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

5. Baby Driver

BEST EDITING

1. Dunkirk

2. Baby Driver

3. The Shape of Water

4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

5. Get Out

BEST SOUND EFFECTS EDITING

1. Dunkirk

2. Baby Driver

3. The Shape of Water

4. Wonder Woman

5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Blade Runner 2049

2. War for the Planet of the Apes

3. The Shape of Water

4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

5. Dunkirk

BEST MAKEUP/HAIRSTYLING

1. Darkest Hour

2. Wonder

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. “Mighty River” – Mudbound

2. “Remember Me” – Coco

3. “This Is Me” – The Greatest Showman

4. “”Prayers for This World” – Cries From Syria

5. “Tell Me How Long” – Chasing Coral

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. The Shape of Water

2. Phantom Thread

3. Dunkirk

4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

5. The Post

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Faces Places

2. Last Men in Aleppo

3. Jane

4. City of Ghosts

5. Strong Island

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Coco

2. Loving Vincent

3. Ferdinand

4. The Breadwinner

5. Mary and the Witch’s Flower

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1. A Fantastic Woman

2. In the Fade

3. The Square

4. On Body and Soul

5. Foxtrot

Predicted Nominations Count

The Shape of Water – 13 noms / 3 wins

Dunkirk – 9 noms / 3 wins

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – 6 noms / 2 wins

Lady Bird – 5 noms / 2 wins

Mudbound – 5 noms / 1 win

The Post – 5 noms

Blade Runner 2049 – 4 noms / 2 wins

Get Out – 4 noms

Star Wars: The Last Jedi – 4 noms

Darkest Hour – 3 noms / 2 wins

Call Me by Your Name – 3 noms / 1 win

Phantom Thread – 3 noms / 1 win

Baby Driver – 3 noms

Coco – 2 noms / 1 win

I, Tonya – 2 noms / 1 win

All the Money in the World – 2 noms

Beauty and the Beast – 2 noms

The Greatest Showman – 2 noms

Faces Places – 1 nom / 1 win

A Fantastic Woman – 1 nom / 1 win

The Big Sick – 1 nom

The Breadwinner – 1 nom

Chasing Coral – 1 nom

City of Ghosts – 1 nom

Cries From Syria – 1 nom

The Disaster Artist – 1 nom

Downsizing – 1 nom

Ferdinand – 1 nom

The Florida Project – 1 nom

Foxtrot – 1 nom

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 – 1 nom

In the Fade – 1 nom

Jane – 1 nom

Last Men in Aleppo – 1 nom

Loving Vincent – 1 nom

Mary and the Witch’s Flower – 1 nom

Molly’s Game – 1 nom

Murder on the Orient Express – 1 nom

On Body and Soul – 1 nom

Roman J. Israel, Esq. – 1 nom

The Square – 1 nom

Strong Island – 1 nom

Wonder – 1 nom

Wonder Woman – 1 nom

So, The Shape of Water comes up a couple acting noms short of the all time record, and the wins are spread out throughout a handful of movies. Thoughts? Predictions? Let me know in the comments!

If I Had a Vote: 2018 Baseball Hall of Fame

Baseball has the best offseason.  So many different topics always interest and intrigue me throughout the winter months as we prepare for pitchers and catchers to report in mid-February.  One of the most interesting topics of debate is the Hall of Fame ballot.  More conversation goes into this Hall of Fame process than all other Halls of Fame combined.  This is for several reasons.  First, of all sports Halls of Fame, the Baseball Hall of Fame is by far the most exclusive.  There have been years where no one enters the Hall because no one reached the lofty qualifications.

In recent years, this voting process has been a topic of discussion and debate due to disagreements in what constitutes a Hall of Famer.  Should a designated hitter make the Hall?  Should closers and relief pitchers be considered Hall of Famers?  However, the biggest topic of debate surrounds the players in the so-called "Steroid Era."  Should those that tested positive for PED's make the Hall?  Should those suspected make the Hall?  If someone was a Hall of Famer before any suspected PED use started make the Hall?  These debates have dominated the discussion around the Hall of Fame voting process for a decade.  The most recent addition to this debate is a memo sent out to all voters by Hall of Famer Joe Morgan saying the current Hall of Famers don't want the PED cheaters in the Hall.

The result of all this debate is a stuffed ballot with too many names that deserve consideration.  Players that deserve more consideration and discussion have no chance because voters still have to vote for players like Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens instead of the ballot starting to clear off some of these players.  This has made filling out a ballot next to impossible.

For those that are not familiar with the voting process, here is how it works.  A player is eligible for Hall of Fame consideration 5 years after retirement.  In order to make the Hall of Fame, a player must receive at least 75% of the votes from the BBWAA (Baseball Writers Association of America).  If a player does not receive at least 5% of the votes, they are not eligible to be considered the next year (which is why a stuffed ballot is hurting the candidacy of some players).  If a player is on the ballot for 10 years without dropping below 5% or getting the required 75%, they are also removed from future consideration.  What makes it even more difficult is each ballot is limited to voting for a maximum of 10 players.  Some vote for less, some vote for none, but 10 is the maximum.

The last few years, I have attempted to figure out what my ballot would look like if I were given a Hall of Fame vote.  It is a fascinating process and worth trying.  This year, I took a different approach to my ballot as I voted for some that I feel deserve more consideration that might end up falling off the ballot before they get their true consideration.  I think there are up to 20 players on this year's ballot that deserve Hall of Fame consideration, but unless they get the 5%, their candidacy is over.

One of the best parts of the Hall of Fame ballot is seeing some of the names that find their way onto the ballot.  So before I say who I would vote for, let's take a walk down memory lane and remember some of the players were the stars of the game over the past decade.

The Rest of the Candidates

* = shot at another ballot

+ = deserves another ballot

Fred McGriff (9th year on ballot, 21.7% last year)*+

The Crime Dog seems to be a forgotten power hitter of his generation.  Next year is his last year on the ballot.  He's not going to make it.

Sammy Sosa (6th, 8.6%)*+

Sosa seems to be in a different category than Bonds and Clemens.  The suspected steroid use made a Hall of Fame player out of a previously average player.

Gary Sheffield (4th, 13.3%)*+

Sheffield looks the part of a Hall of Famer, but won't get the consideration he deserves until some players fall off the ballot.

Aubrey Huff (1st)

There are always the players on the ballot where having a significant enough career to make the ballot is reward enough.  Huff is one of those.

Brad Lidge (1st)

Known as much for his inconsistency as his dominance, Lidge's career proved how hard it is to be a dominant closer over an entire career.

Carlos Lee (1st)

El Caballo, at his best, was one of the top players in the game.  His peak was just way too short.

Carlos Zambrano (1st)

One of the most entertaining and volatile players for a decade, his performance didn't always live up to his reputation.

Chris Carpenter (1st)+

One of the best pitchers on possibly the best pitching staff of the 2000's, he deserves more consideration that he will get.

Hideki Matsui (1st)

The first Japanese position player to make a Hall of Fame ballot, his career being centered in the Bronx gave his career more notoriety than it may have deserved.  Combine his stats with his Japanese stats, and he is a sure-fire Hall of Famer.

Jamie Moyer (1st)+

The longevity alone warrants a longer look.  He played for 25 seasons and almost accumulated 300 wins.  Playing till you are 50 is definitely noteworthy.

Jason Isringhausen (1st)

Going from being a bust to reinventing his career as a top closer, Izzy had one of the more intriguing careers on this list.

Johan Santana (1st)*+

He was the best pitcher in baseball at one point.  Injuries derailed a career that guaranteed Cooperstown.  Now he is on the fringe and probably will only get this one shot at being on the ballot.

Johnny Damon (1st)

A cornerstone in both Boston and New York, Damon was the definition of a "character guy" in the clubhouse.  Unfortunately, that doesn't get honored in Cooperstown.

Kerry Wood (1st)

From striking out 20 in a game and being the next Roger Clemens to salvaging the end of his career as a flame-throwing reliever, Wood shows that a Hall of Fame career is more than just a moment or a season.

Kevin Millwood (1st)

Part of the back end of the touted Braves rotations definitely helps the reputation.  Helping throw a no hitter in his 16th and final season does too.  Not enough though.

Livan Hernandez (1st)+

A phenom that burst onto the scene in the 1997 World Series, Livan had a long career but not as distinguished as some hoped.  Still, he deserves a second look.

Omar Vizquel (1st)*+

Potentially the best defensive player in league history, his career might put him in Cooperstown eventually.  It pains me to not even put him in my Honorable Mention.

Orlando Hudson (1st)

Much like Aubrey Huff, his reward is making the ballot.  A two-time All Star, he was a consistent second baseman for a good portion of a decade.

Honorable Mentions

Jeff Kent (5th, 16.7%)

It is ridiculous how low the numbers are for Jeff Kent.  He is, arguably, the best offensive second baseman of all time.  Among second basemen, he is first in home runs, third in RBI's, fourth in doubles, and fifth in OPS.  How is that not a Hall of Famer?

Andruw Jones (1st)

Andruw Jones was one of the more entertaining players to watch.  A five time All Star and ten time Gold Glove winner, he also led the league in homers and RBI's in 2005.  He was a great combination of hitting and defense with a flair for the dramatic.

Manny Ramirez (2nd, 23.8%)

Last year, I voted for Manny.  Seeing where his numbers came in, it is obvious his multiple PED suspensions will be keeping him from the Hall.  To vote for him again, with so many worthy candidates, would feel like a wasted vote.

Roger Clemens (6th, 54.1%)

I have been a big supporter of all the steroid guys getting into the Hall.  However, I am tired of them clogging up this ballot.  Bonds and Clemens are not falling off the ballot this year.  They have a few more years of eligibility.  If their numbers continue to progress in the right direction, I will vote for them in the future to get them in.  Without the PED suspicions, Clemens may have been the first unanimous first ballot Hall of Famer.

Barry Bonds (6th, 53.8%)

If Clemens wasn't the first unanimous first ballot Hall of Famer, Bonds would have been.  However, Bonds is forever linked to Clemens in this process because of the PED suspicions.  You can even tell that practically the same people are voting for the two of them.  Either you think they should be in or you don't.  My thought is all of these "Steroid Era" players (Bonds, Clemens, Ramirez, Sosa, McGwire, Palmeiro, etc.) will eventually get in through the future veteran committees.  So whether they get the votes now or not is irrelevant.

My Ballot

1.  Chipper Jones (1st)

Let's start with the easy ones.  Larry Wayne Jones (they call him Chipper) was an 8 time All Star, the 1999 MVP, and one of the greatest switch hitters the league has ever seen.  He will be making the Hall of Fame this year, and will join Ken Griffey Jr. as the only top overall draft picks to be in the Hall.

2.  Jim Thome (1st)

I'll be honest, I never thought of Jim Thome as an all-time great, first ballot Hall of Famer when he was playing.  However, when you look at the numbers he accumulated over his 22 year career, his candidacy is undeniable.  He is one of only 9 big leaguers of all time to hit 600 home runs, was a 5 time All Star, and is top 20 in career OPS.  He truly is one of the greatest power hitters of all time and is known as one of the best teammates of all time.  He will be a first-ballot Hall of Famer.

3.  Scott Rolen (1st)

My first "stay on the ballot" vote.  However, at the same time, Scott Rolen should be a Hall of Famer.  He is a 7 time All Star and an 8 time Gold Glove winner at third base.  He is 10th in career WAR among third basemen, placing him right in the middle of all the Hall of Famers at the position.  He was one of the most consistently great players at that position for his 17 year career.  I think Rolen's candidacy is hurt by Chipper entering the ballot at the same time, however he should be considered in the same breath as Chipper.

4.  Vladimir Guerrero (2nd, 71.7%)

I was surprised Vlad didn't make it on the first ballot.  He came so close the first time around, and for good reason.  Vlad is one of the most naturally gifted hitters the game has ever seen.  The dude was a beast!  He almost reached 450 home runs and 1500 RBI's, was a 9 time All Star, 8 time Silver Slugger, and was the 2004 AL MVP.  Also, before his body broke down on the Montreal turf, he was an elite defender with a cannon for an arm.  He has a good shot at making it this year, but he will be in eventually.

5.  Billy Wagner (3rd, 10.2%)

"Keep him on the ballot" vote number two.  Wagner was one of the most dominant left-handed relievers of all time.  He is 6th all time in saves and a 7 time All Star.  Many people struggle voting for relievers which has once again clogged up the ballot.  Maybe some of the votes that used to go to Lee Smith will go to Billy Wagner.  He deserves to have a higher percentage than this.

6.  Trevor Hoffman (3rd, 74%)

If Wagner is ever going to get in, it will start by Trevor Hoffman getting in.  Hoffman is 2nd all time in saves, only behind Mariano Rivera.  Wagner and Hoffman are having trouble getting in simply because they weren't as good as Mo.  Hoffman is one of the best closers of all time and should get in this year.

7.  Mike Mussina (5th, 51.8%)

The longer Mussina is on the ballot, the more convinced I am that he belongs in the Hall of Fame.  His numbers may not be as elite as some, but considering the division he pitched in (AL East) and the small ballparks that are in that division, he had to be an all-timer to have the numbers he did.  He was one of the best pitchers in baseball, especially during his Oriole years.  He remained a top-end starter throughout his 18 year career, racking up 270 wins, 5 All Star Game appearances, and 7 Gold Gloves.

8.  Curt Schilling (6th, 45%)

This one I don't understand.  Many say Schilling is being kept out of the Hall due to his political beliefs and controversial comments made on social media.  Why does that matter?  Over his 20 year career, he was a 5 time All Star, 3 time World Series champ (winning World Series MVP in 2001), and winning 216 games.  He was an elite pitcher during the regular season and even better in the postseason.  The bloody sock.  Need I say more?

9.  Larry Walker (8th, 21.9%)

This is another case I don't get.  Larry Walker was a dominant hitter for quite some time.  He was a 5 time All Star, 7 time Gold Glover, and 3 time Silver Slugger.  He also won the 1997 NL MVP.  The only way to explain his low numbers was the fact that he played in Coors Field most of his career.  However, his OPS+, which takes takes ballpark into account, tells a different story.  He is 5th on the ballot in OPS+, ahead of future Hall of Famers Chipper Jones and Vladimir Guerrero.  Walker is a perfect candidate for a Veterans Committee induction because that might be the only way he gets in.

10.  Edgar Martinez (9th, 58.6%)

I ordered my ballot by years on the ballot.  Otherwise, Edgar would be on the top of my list.  He was a 7 time All Star, 5 time Silver Slugger, and a 2 time batting champ.  He is only one of 18 players with a career .300/.400/.500 (batting, on base, slugging) split.  Of the other 17 players on the list, 12 are in the Hall of Fame, three others are currently on the ballot (Ramirez, Walker, Jones), one is not on the ballot yet (Todd Helton), and one is ineligible (Shoeless Joe Jackson).  On top of all that, if you talk to any player that played against him, they will say Edgar was one of the most feared hitters of his generation.  Put Edgar in!


That is who I would vote for.  Try to put together your own ballot.  It is a harder task than you think.  Now to predict who I think will get in.  This year might set a record for how many players get in.  With two sure-fire first ballot Hall of Famers and possibly two or three others working their way over the 75% threshold, it could be an incredible year in Cooperstown.  Add to that the start of the Modern Era Veterans Committee already voting in Alan Trammell and Jack Morris, Cooperstown will be busy.  Here are my predicted entries.

Alan Trammell (already elected)

Jack Morris (already elected)

Chipper Jones

Jim Thome

Trevor Hoffman

Vladimir Guerrero

Edgar Martinez