The Oscar nominations are coming up on January 23rd! This
means it is time for my final predictions in all categories. This year has a lot
of factors that keep the race up in the air, particularly the #MeToo movement,
lingering #OscarsSoWhite frustrations, a horror-comedy in the forefront of the
Oscar race, as well as backlash to the perceived frontrunner in the major
categories Three Billboards Outside
Ebbing, Missouri. Nothing this year is set in stone, except for the fact
that The Shape of Water is going to
make a run at a record 15 nominations. Read up on the major categories, as well
as my ARTISTIC AND TECHNICAL CATEGORIES PREDICTIONS, which also includes my
predicted nominations count for each movie!
BEST
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Predicted Five
1. Call Me by Your Name – James Ivory – Adapted Screenplay is
incredibly weak this year, but this is a beautiful script by a 3 time nominee
who is probably making his last film. It is his time.
2. Mudbound – Dee Rees, Virgil Williams – The screenplay was
actually quite rich, and if the movie gets rewarded somewhere, it will probably
be in this category.
3. Molly’s Game – Aaron Sorkin – The screenplay is vintage Sorkin.
He has won once, but nominations are not always guaranteed. I put him third in
case he gets another snub like he got for Steve
Jobs.
4. The Disaster Artist – Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber – The
movie has its moments, and this writing duo has had some gems, but they are
always ignored. This seems like the time for their first nomination.
5. All the Money in the World – David Scarpa – The movie has won
the publicity vote, which could carry with it a couple nominations that aren’t
necessarily deserved. This is a stab in the dark, but I can see it happening.
Others in contention
6. Wonder – Stephen Chbosky, Steve Conrad, Jack Thorne – The movie
has had a nice box office, but this nomination would seem a little bizarre.
Several people are predicting it, but my gut is that it gets the shaft.
7. The Beguiled – Sofia Coppola – The movie seems forgotten by
most of the awards, but it was a Cannes darling, and Coppola is a past winner.
This could surprise and pop in up a couple places.
8. Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool – Matt Greenhalgh – The movie
got a big time boost from the BAFTA nominations, but it will all depend on if
any Americans actually saw it prior to voting.
BEST
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Predicted Five
1. Lady Bird – Greta Gerwig – If Gerwig is going to be rewarded,
and I hope she is, it will be in this category.
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – Martin McDonagh – It
is probably the frontrunner on paper, but the backlash can take its toll.
McDonagh will have to wait another year before his first win.
3. Get Out – Jordan Peele – Peele is a definite threat to take
this award. It is the most creative and daring screenplay of the year. If he
wins here, then it has a real shot at Best Picture, regardless if he gets a
Director nom or not.
4. The Shape of Water – Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor – Del
Toro’s film will be nominated basically everywhere it is eligible. This is an
easy prediction.
5. The Post – Liz Hannah, Josh Singer – This fifth spot is really
interesting. I suspect that The Post
will play well with Academy voters and will sneak in over much more
accomplished films and screenwriters.
Others in contention
6. The Big Sick – Kumail Nanjiani, Emily V. Gordon – It would be
sad if it gets snubbed, but it just seems like a foregone conclusion,
especially after the Globes debacle.
7. I, Tonya – Steven Rogers – The WGA nomination was a boost, but
the movie will be an acting contender at the Oscars only.
8. Phantom Thread – Paul Thomas Anderson – He is typically
nominated every time in the writing categories, but the movie seems very understated.
However, if he gets in, I will not be shocked at all. He was even nominated for
Inherent Vice.
9. Dunkirk – Christopher Nolan – He is another consistent
contender in these categories, but the movie lacks significant dialogue, which
could play against its chances.
10. The Florida Project – Sean Baker, Chris Bergoch – Sadly, the
movie is not making as strong of a push at the awards circuits as it could
have. If it shows up here, then we could be looking at a Best Picture nom as
well.
11. Coco – Lee Unkrich, Jason Katz, Matthew Aldrich, Adrian Molina –
Pixar is always in contention. Even though this is not being talked about by
many, the acclaim is almost universal and can ride the Pixar wave all the way
to the ceremony.
BEST
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. Allison Janney – I, Tonya – She has the showiest
role, not to mention mom role, in the category. The veteran actor gets her
first overdue nom/win.
2. Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird – She is probably the more
deserving contender, but she is less of a film actress than Janney. She is an
easy nominee, but unfortunately she’ll probably come up just short.
3. Hong Chau – Downsizing – She has all the right
precursors, and while the movie is not well received at all, she gets in on her
beautiful and heartfelt performance.
4. Mary J. Blige – Mudbound – She also has a song in
the running. If the Academy gets over their Netflix bias, then she should coast
to a nomination here.
5. Holly Hunter – The Big Sick – While she has been
overlooked by some, the SAG nod secures her nomination.
Others in contention
6. Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water – Her part was so
small that I feel like she gets left off, just barely. She doesn’t need a third
nomination already.
7. Lesley Manville – Phantom Thread – The BAFTA
nomination and supposedly still lingering snub for Another Year has her as a dark horse in the category.
8. Tiffany Haddish – Girls Trip – If the Academy wants to
throw in a wildcard, then this performance is it. They nominated a similar type
role for Melissa McCarthy, and Haddish did win over the NYFCC in her memorable victory
speech.
Annual
Tommy Lee Jones (In the Valley of Elah)
Shocker Nomination: Nicole Kidman – The
Killing of a Sacred Deer
BEST
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
– He has taken the precursors thus far, and he has never been nominated
before. He finally has his chance.
2. Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project – The veteran
actor just unfortunately is stuck in a movie that is being largely forgotten
otherwise. He is this year’s Sylvester Stallone in Creed.
3. Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water – His performance
is not flashy, but he has good lines and is quirky enough to get swept in with
the love for the film.
4. Christopher Plummer – All the Money in the World – Plummer
was put in an impossible situation and won everyone over. His efforts and
goodwill get him the film’s lone nomination.
5. Armie Hammer – Call Me by Your Name – The SAG snub
was discouraging, but in the end, I find it hard to think that he won’t be
mentioned on nomination morning. He was every bit as good as Chalamet.
Others in contention
6. Michael Stuhlbarg – Call Me by Your Name – He has one
great speech, plus he has two other Best Picture contenders. He could get the
John C. Reilly nomination if the Academy loves the movie more than SAG.
7. Woody Harrelson – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
– The SAG nomination was a boost, but I think/hope that the voters will
gravitate toward Rockwell before Harrelson.
8. Steve Carell – Battle of the Sexes – He is a dark
horse. The SAG and Globe nominations are key, but the movie is forgotten
otherwise.
9. Jason Mitchell – Mudbound – He has been ignored
unjustly throughout the process. If the Academy is ok with Netflix this year,
then he could pop in out of nowhere.
Annual
Tommy Lee Jones (In the Valley of Elah)
Shocker Nomination: Michael Shannon – The
Shape of Water
BEST
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
– The past winner will take home her second trophy for her furious
performance in the Best Picture contender.
2. Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird – Ronan is becoming a
contender every year, and if there is an upset of McDormand, it will be from
her. If she wins, then this is absolutely our Best Picture winner.
3. Margot Robbie – I, Tonya – She has a complete
transformation in the film, which is always looked on fondly by voters. She’ll
have to wait for a win, but her first nomination is guaranteed.
4. Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water – This is another
easy nomination in the Best Picture contender. Her second nomination will be
less of a surprise, and if she wins, then this is absolutely our Best Picture
winner.
5. Meryl Streep – The Post – There are other worthy
performances, but predicting she will get snubbed hasn’t worked since 2004.
Others in contention
6. Jessica Chastain – Molly’s Game – She is the true
deserving winner, but I fear that the Academy will not love the movie as much as
they should.
7. Judi Dench – Victoria and Abdul – She has the
important precursors, and she is Dame Judi Dench, but don’t even know a single
person who saw or wanted to see this movie. It gets left off in every category.
8. Emma Stone – Battle of the Sexes – It might be
her best performance, but the movie does kinda suck, and it underperformed at
the box office and in the precursors. And she just won, so a snub here is
understandable.
Annual
Tommy Lee Jones (In the Valley of Elah)
Shocker Nomination: Daniela Vega – A
Fantastic Woman
BEST
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour – With the wins so far,
unless he gets beat at SAG, he will finally pick up his first trophy for his
transformation into Winston Churchill.
2. Timothee Chalamet – Call Me by Your Name – He gave the
best performance by anyone in 2017, but the Academy will see it as more of a
breakout role than anything else. I have him winning next year in my 2019 PREDICTIONS.
3. Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread – The nomination is
looking more and more likely, and as more people see the film, perhaps they
will send him a parting gift and record-tying 4th win.
4. Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out – He has hit every
precursor; he is getting nominated. But there’s no chance he can win.
5. Denzel Washington – Roman J. Israel, Esq. – The movie
has been forgotten and was sort of a flop. But there are probably still a lot
of voters who feel bad for not giving him the win last year. He takes the fifth
spot.
Others in contention
6. James Franco – The Disaster Artist – The sexual
harassment allegations are looming, and despite how awesome he was and having
won at the Globes and Critics Choice, I fear an unjust snub here.
7. Tom Hanks – The Post – He hasn’t been nominated
in forever. If he shows up here, then we have to look at The Post as a real BP contender.
Annual
Tommy Lee Jones (In the Valley of Elah)
Shocker Nomination: Harry Dean Stanton - Lucky
BEST
DIRECTOR
The Predicted Five
1. Guillermo del Toro – The Shape of Water – He has won the
big ones so far, and his movie is looking at a record amount of nominations if
things go right. It would be hard to deny him an award here.
2. Martin McDonagh – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
– His movie is in the driver’s seat, and it is his finest work yet. But he
is up against a juggernaut.
3. Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird – The DGA nomination
secured this nomination. It would be so cool if she somehow wins the thing.
4. Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk – Nolan finally has a movie
that appeals to all voters, and the vast amount of technical nominations should
be enough for him to get his first nom.
5. Steven Spielberg – The Post – He always defies the odds
and gets nominated whether he deserves it or not. He has lost his touch…too bad
the Academy can’t see that.
Others in contention
6. Jordan Peele – Get Out – Unfortunately, that leaves
off Peele, which would likely be detrimental to the film’s Best Picture
chances. I hope I’m wrong on this.
7. Dee Rees – Mudbound – My preseason pick to win
the category is looking less likely, but if the Academy can get over the
streaming thing, then her searing drama could lift her to a nomination.
8. Luca Guadagnino – Call Me by Your Name – This would be
the equivalent to Lenny Abrahamson in 2015 getting in, which no one is really
expecting, but the Academy might really take to the film and carry him in with
the love.
9. Ridley Scott – All the Money in the World – How he
handled the Kevin Spacey ordeal might be an overwhelming factor that could
boost him into the conversation, much like it was at the Globes. It is hard to
predict that, but I wouldn’t doubt it.
BEST
PICTURE
The Predicted Ten (I predict 7 will get nominated)
1. Lady Bird (Greta Gerwig) – It is good enough, and no one
dislikes it. In the current era and voting structure of the Academy, that is
all that is required to win.
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Martin McDonagh) – It
has the backlash, which makes it just divisive enough to take away its award
that it so richly deserves.
3. The Shape of Water (Guillermo del Toro) – It will be nominated
everywhere, but that is not enough to take this award home. It is this year’s Benjamin Button.
4. Dunkirk (Christopher Nolan) – The movie will be put on this
list for its craftsmanship more than anything else, which will play well with
the old Oscar voters.
5. Get Out (Jordan Peele) – Everything points to this movie being
nominated, and because there really isn’t anyone who will have it lower than
maybe 3 or 4 on their ballot, I would watch out for a shocker win here.
6. The Post (Steven Spielberg) – The movie is old fashioned and
will be a hit with the older voters. Spielberg is always in contention, even
for his garbage like Bridge of Spies
and War Horse.
7. Mudbound (Dee Rees) – Netflix finally gets its first
nomination. The PGA snub was discouraging, but it overcomes it.
8. The Big Sick (Michael Showalter) – I fear that the film will
just not have enough 1st place votes to get in. Everyone likes it,
but no one has it #1. The SAG ensemble nomination is interesting, however…
9. The Florida Project (Sean Baker) – The movie has its fans, but
A24 did not do a great campaign, and not enough voters saw it.
10. Call Me by Your Name (Luca Guadagnino) – It should be up there,
but the subject matter and lack of real star power will bring it down a notch
and leave it just on the outside.
Others in contention
11. I, Tonya (Craig Gillespie) – The film has been a hit, and the
PGA nomination was a legitimate boost. It could surprise if there are 8 or 9
nominees.
12. Molly’s Game (Aaron Sorkin) – The PGA put it on their list,
which was encouraging. It is a great film, but even I admit that a Best Picture
nomination would be a little bizarre.
13. Wonder Woman (Patty Jenkins) – There seems to always be a
blockbuster movie in the PGA lineup that has no chance (The Hangover, Bridesmaids,
etc.), but this feels different. Keep an eye out here…
That’s all for the major categories! What are your predictions? Comment
below! Also, check out my ARTS AND TECHS PREDICTIONS, which also features my
predicted nominations count for each film mentioned!
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