Academy Award nominee Kobe Bryant…yeah that sounds weird. The nominations for the 90th Annual Academy Awards came out this
morning, and there were some surprises. There were not the typical shockers
like Tommy Lee Jones in In the Valley of
Elah, but there were some notable snubs, chief among them being the
director of the frontrunner for Best Picture Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Check out my reactions
to all of the categories below, as well as how my predictions did and my Top 10
Coolest First-time nominees (stacked list this year) and the Top 10 Biggest
Snubs…enjoy!
BEST PICTURE
Call Me by Your Name
Call Me by Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Predicted: 7 for 9
Reactions: Rounding
out my top 10 predicted were The Big Sick,
Mudbound, and The Florida Project. The big surprise here is Darkest Hour, which has been ignored for everything all season
other than Gary Oldman’s eventual Oscar for Best Actor. Phantom Thread had issues with the screeners getting to voters in
time, but it is good to know that the Academy at least took notice. Due to how
the next category stacked up, we have maybe the most unpredictable and wide
open race (probably 4 legitimate contenders for the top prize) that I can
remember.
Preliminary
prediction: Lady Bird
BEST
DIRECTOR
Paul Thomas Anderson – Phantom Thread
Guillermo del Toro – The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig – Lady
Bird
Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk
Jordan Peele – Get Out
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: The Golden Globe winner of the Best Picture
frontrunner got snubbed for Best Director. This race was always going to be
Guillermo del Toro anyway, but that shakes up things quite a bit. Three Billboards already is seeing the
backlash to some viewers’ reservations about the how racism is handled in the
movie. It took longer for people to turn on La
La Land. Without a Directing nomination, chances are incredibly thin for
Martin McDonagh’s film. Argo was able
to overcome it, but that was a rarity. Jordan Peele, Greta Gerwig, and PTA…this
category is amazing! I had Spielberg and McDonagh making the list in my
predictions.
Preliminary
prediction: Guillermo del Toro
BEST ACTOR
Timothee
Chalamet – Call Me by Your Name
Daniel
Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread
Daniel
Kaluuya – Get Out
Gary
Oldman – Darkest Hour
Denzel
Washington – Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Predicted: 5 for 5
Reactions: The
ill-timed sexual harassment allegations against James Franco took its toll.
This is exactly what I expected to happen here. I always thought Franco was on
the fringe anyway, and with the Phantom
Thread screeners not making it to SAG voters in time, it makes sense that
DDL would take his rightful place in this race in his “final” movie.
Preliminary
prediction: Gary Oldman
BEST ACTRESS
Sally
Hawkins – The Shape of Water
Frances
McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing,
Missouri
Margot
Robbie – I, Tonya
Saoirse
Ronan – Lady Bird
Meryl
Streep – The Post
Predicted: 5 for 5
Reactions: There
was really no other option here. It would have been awesome to see Jessica
Chastain in Molly’s Game, but when
Streep is on the edge, she is always going to win out.
Preliminary
prediction: Frances McDormand
BEST
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Willem
Dafoe – The Florida Project
Woody
Harrelson – Three Billboards Outside
Ebbing, Missouri
Richard
Jenkins – The Shape of Water
Christopher
Plummer – All the Money in the World
Sam
Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside
Ebbing, Missouri
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I
had Armie Hammer over Harrelson. I actually think the double nomination for Three Billboards is detrimental to
Rockwell’s chances. It really sucks for Armie Hammer. He deserved to be in
there. Also, Michael Stuhlbarg was in three Best Picture nominees (first time
since 2002 that has happened), but he was not rewarded with a nomination like John
C. Reilly was 15 years ago.
Preliminary
prediction: Willem Dafoe
BEST
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Mary J.
Blige – Mudbound
Allison
Janney – I, Tonya
Lesley
Manville – Phantom Thread
Laurie
Metcalf – Lady Bird
Octavia
Spencer – The Shape of Water
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: Apparently
Hong Chau’s film was hated enough to take her out of the running. I had her
making it alongside Holly Hunter. This is an ok lineup. Manville is pretty much
out of nowhere, but she should have gotten nominated for Mike Leigh’s Another Year in the past. Octavia
Spencer could become the annual also-ran in this category. If Lady Bird is going to win Best Picture,
then I think this will be where is will (rightly) be rewarded to give it
another win.
Preliminary
prediction: Laurie Metcalf
BEST
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I
had The Post making it, and I’m glad
I’m wrong. But…who voted for The Post
for Best Picture!? Obviously the SAG shutout implies that it wasn’t actors. The
directors didn’t even nominate Spielberg. It got snubbed here, despite being a
journalism movie written by an Oscar winner. They didn’t even nominate John
Williams. Yet…5% somehow had it as their #1 of the year. Ridiculous…
Preliminary
prediction: Lady Bird
BEST ADAPTED
SCREENPLAY
Call Me by Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Logan
Molly’s Game
Mudbound
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: Logan is now the first superhero movie
to be nominated for its screenplay. I had All
the Money in the World in my predictions for this category, the worst
screenplay category I can remember. James Ivory is 90 and has never won an
Oscar…this is his year.
Preliminary
prediction: Call Me by Your Name
BEST
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Mudbound
The Shape of Water
Predicted: 5 for 5
Reactions: Rachel
Morrison (Mudbound) becomes the first
female DOP nominated for an Oscar. This has got to finally be the time for
Roger Deakins…right?
Preliminary
prediction: Blade Runner 2049
BEST
PRODUCTION DESIGN
Blade Runner 2049
Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Predicted: 5 for 5
Reactions: These
were pretty much the obvious nominees, mixing fantasy and period pieces.
Preliminary
prediction: The Shape of Water
BEST COSTUME
DESIGN
Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Victoria & Abdul
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I
went more conventional with Murder on the
Orient Express and The Greatest
Showman, but I guess these period pieces are more Oscary. If The Shape of Water starts picking up
awards like this, then we could be in for a sweep.
Preliminary
prediction: Phantom Thread
BEST SOUND
MIXING
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
The Shape of Water
Predicted: 5 for 5
Reactions: These
pretty much are the prestigious technical achievement films of the year…and Baby Driver, which is just an awesome
movie.
Preliminary
prediction: The Shape of Water
BEST FILM
EDITING
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
I, Tonya
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: Get Out getting snubbed here is
detrimental to its Best Picture chances, and it was in favor of a joke of a
nomination for I, Tonya. Lady Bird misses as well. Usually the
Best Picture winner is also nominated here, but Birdman bucked the trend a few years ago. The new voting structure
keeps everything wide open.
Preliminary
prediction: Dunkirk
BEST SOUND
EFFECTS EDITING
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
The Shape of Water
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: Baby Driver is this year’s The Bourne Ultimatum. I had Wonder Woman (shut out, BTW) in over Blade Runner. These are probably the
right nominees though. Usually a terrible action movie is mentioned here, but
the voters had good action movies to play with.
Preliminary
prediction: Dunkirk
BEST VISUAL
EFFECTS
Blade Runner 2049
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Kong: Skull Island
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I
had Best Picture nominees The Shape of
Water and Dunkirk in there. With
this group, it looks wide open. If they want to reward Star Wars for something, it might need to be here.
Preliminary
prediction: War for the Planet of the
Apes
BEST MAKEUP
AND HAIRSTYLING
Darkest Hour
Victoria & Abdul
Wonder
Predicted: 2 for 3
Reactions: I
had the more showy makeup work in Guardians
of the Galaxy Vol. 2 in there over the hairstyling work in the Dame Judi
Dench film. This is Darkest Hour,
easy.
Preliminary
prediction: Darkest Hour
BEST
ORIGINAL SONG
“The
Mystery of Love” – Call Me by Your Name
“Remember
Me” – Coco
“Stand
Up for Something” – Marshall
“Mighty
River” – Mudbound
“This is
Me” – The Greatest Showman
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I
predicted a couple documentaries to get their songs in there, which is usually
how it goes. This is a more star packed group. Mary J. Blige, Oscar-winner
Common, Diane Warren, the EGOT winning Robert and Kristen Lopez. I’ll go with
Blige.
Preliminary
prediction: “Mighty River”
BEST
ORIGINAL SCORE
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I
had The Post in there. This category
just further cements the strange snub of McDonagh for Director since the movie
he created and oversaw got nominated in all of the important categories. The Shape of Water’s music just sounds
like an Oscar winning score.
Preliminary
prediction: The Shape of Water
BEST
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
Faces Places
Incarus
Last Men in Aleppo
Strong Island
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I
had popular choices Jane and City of Ghosts getting nominated. I have
not seen any of these, but Faces Places
is the definite critical favorite, so for now…I’ll predict that.
Preliminary
prediction: Faces Places
BEST FOREIGN
LANGUAGE FILM
A Fantastic Woman
The Insult
Loveless
On Body and Soul
The Square
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I
had the Golden Globe-winning In the Fade
and Foxtrot getting nominated. This
category is always impossible to predict the nominees. This seems like a good
group though. The Cannes winner makes a rare appearance.
Preliminary
prediction: A Fantastic Woman
BEST
ANIMATED FEATURE
The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: The
new voting rules allowing every Academy member to vote on this category means
we get more The Boss Baby and less Mary and the Witch’s Flower. Kobe Bryant’s
Dear Basketball was nominated for
Best Animated Short…which is awesome. Coco
takes this in a walk.
Preliminary
prediction: Coco
Overall
predictions: 83/107; 77.57% (74.77%
in 2017)
Without the
last 5 categories: 66/82; 80.49% (78.05%
in 2017)
On the Big 8
categories: 35/44; 77.77% (83.72% in
2017)
10 COOLEST
FIRST TIME NOMINEES
1. Sam Rockwell
2. Jordan Peele
3. Greta Gerwig
4. Kobe Bryant
5. Kumail Nanjiani and Emily V. Gordon
6. Mary J. Blige
7. Timothee
Chalamet
8. Allison Janney
9. Daniel Kaluuya
10. Margot Robbie
10 WORST
SNUBS
1. Martin McDonagh
for Best Director
2. Armie Hammer
for Best Supporting Actor
3. Get Out for Best Editing
4. Blade Runner 2049 for Original Score
5. The Killing of a Sacred Deer for Best
Cinematography
6. Michael
Stuhlbarg for Best Supporting Actor
7. Luca Guadagnino
for Best Director
8. James Franco
for Best Actor
9. Wonder Woman for all technical
categories
10. Jessica
Chastain for Best Actress
Stay tuned for our 10th Annual Oscar Challenge!
No comments:
Post a Comment