Tuesday, January 23, 2018

Reactions to the Oscar Nominations: 2018

Academy Award nominee Kobe Bryant…yeah that sounds weird. The nominations for the 90th Annual Academy Awards came out this morning, and there were some surprises. There were not the typical shockers like Tommy Lee Jones in In the Valley of Elah, but there were some notable snubs, chief among them being the director of the frontrunner for Best Picture Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Check out my reactions to all of the categories below, as well as how my predictions did and my Top 10 Coolest First-time nominees (stacked list this year) and the Top 10 Biggest Snubs…enjoy!

BEST PICTURE
Call Me by Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Predicted: 7 for 9
Reactions: Rounding out my top 10 predicted were The Big Sick, Mudbound, and The Florida Project. The big surprise here is Darkest Hour, which has been ignored for everything all season other than Gary Oldman’s eventual Oscar for Best Actor. Phantom Thread had issues with the screeners getting to voters in time, but it is good to know that the Academy at least took notice. Due to how the next category stacked up, we have maybe the most unpredictable and wide open race (probably 4 legitimate contenders for the top prize) that I can remember.
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Preliminary prediction: Lady Bird

BEST DIRECTOR
Paul Thomas Anderson – Phantom Thread
Guillermo del Toro – The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird
Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk
Jordan Peele – Get Out
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: The Golden Globe winner of the Best Picture frontrunner got snubbed for Best Director. This race was always going to be Guillermo del Toro anyway, but that shakes up things quite a bit. Three Billboards already is seeing the backlash to some viewers’ reservations about the how racism is handled in the movie. It took longer for people to turn on La La Land. Without a Directing nomination, chances are incredibly thin for Martin McDonagh’s film. Argo was able to overcome it, but that was a rarity. Jordan Peele, Greta Gerwig, and PTA…this category is amazing! I had Spielberg and McDonagh making the list in my predictions.
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Preliminary prediction: Guillermo del Toro

BEST ACTOR
Timothee Chalamet – Call Me by Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out
Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington – Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Predicted: 5 for 5
Reactions: The ill-timed sexual harassment allegations against James Franco took its toll. This is exactly what I expected to happen here. I always thought Franco was on the fringe anyway, and with the Phantom Thread screeners not making it to SAG voters in time, it makes sense that DDL would take his rightful place in this race in his “final” movie.
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Preliminary prediction: Gary Oldman

BEST ACTRESS
Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie – I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird
Meryl Streep – The Post
Predicted: 5 for 5
Reactions: There was really no other option here. It would have been awesome to see Jessica Chastain in Molly’s Game, but when Streep is on the edge, she is always going to win out.
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Preliminary prediction: Frances McDormand


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer – All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I had Armie Hammer over Harrelson. I actually think the double nomination for Three Billboards is detrimental to Rockwell’s chances. It really sucks for Armie Hammer. He deserved to be in there. Also, Michael Stuhlbarg was in three Best Picture nominees (first time since 2002 that has happened), but he was not rewarded with a nomination like John C. Reilly was 15 years ago.
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Preliminary prediction: Willem Dafoe


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Mary J. Blige – Mudbound
Allison Janney – I, Tonya
Lesley Manville – Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: Apparently Hong Chau’s film was hated enough to take her out of the running. I had her making it alongside Holly Hunter. This is an ok lineup. Manville is pretty much out of nowhere, but she should have gotten nominated for Mike Leigh’s Another Year in the past. Octavia Spencer could become the annual also-ran in this category. If Lady Bird is going to win Best Picture, then I think this will be where is will (rightly) be rewarded to give it another win.
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Preliminary prediction: Laurie Metcalf

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I had The Post making it, and I’m glad I’m wrong. But…who voted for The Post for Best Picture!? Obviously the SAG shutout implies that it wasn’t actors. The directors didn’t even nominate Spielberg. It got snubbed here, despite being a journalism movie written by an Oscar winner. They didn’t even nominate John Williams. Yet…5% somehow had it as their #1 of the year. Ridiculous…
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Preliminary prediction: Lady Bird

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Call Me by Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Logan
Molly’s Game
Mudbound
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: Logan is now the first superhero movie to be nominated for its screenplay. I had All the Money in the World in my predictions for this category, the worst screenplay category I can remember. James Ivory is 90 and has never won an Oscar…this is his year.
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Preliminary prediction: Call Me by Your Name

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Mudbound
The Shape of Water
Predicted: 5 for 5
Reactions: Rachel Morrison (Mudbound) becomes the first female DOP nominated for an Oscar. This has got to finally be the time for Roger Deakins…right?
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Preliminary prediction: Blade Runner 2049

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Blade Runner 2049
Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Predicted: 5 for 5
Reactions: These were pretty much the obvious nominees, mixing fantasy and period pieces.
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Preliminary prediction: The Shape of Water

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Victoria & Abdul
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I went more conventional with Murder on the Orient Express and The Greatest Showman, but I guess these period pieces are more Oscary. If The Shape of Water starts picking up awards like this, then we could be in for a sweep.
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Preliminary prediction: Phantom Thread

BEST SOUND MIXING
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
The Shape of Water
Predicted: 5 for 5
Reactions: These pretty much are the prestigious technical achievement films of the year…and Baby Driver, which is just an awesome movie.
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Preliminary prediction: The Shape of Water

BEST FILM EDITING
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
I, Tonya
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: Get Out getting snubbed here is detrimental to its Best Picture chances, and it was in favor of a joke of a nomination for I, Tonya. Lady Bird misses as well. Usually the Best Picture winner is also nominated here, but Birdman bucked the trend a few years ago. The new voting structure keeps everything wide open.
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Preliminary prediction: Dunkirk

BEST SOUND EFFECTS EDITING
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
The Shape of Water
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: Baby Driver is this year’s The Bourne Ultimatum. I had Wonder Woman (shut out, BTW) in over Blade Runner. These are probably the right nominees though. Usually a terrible action movie is mentioned here, but the voters had good action movies to play with.
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Preliminary prediction: Dunkirk

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Blade Runner 2049
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Kong: Skull Island
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I had Best Picture nominees The Shape of Water and Dunkirk in there. With this group, it looks wide open. If they want to reward Star Wars for something, it might need to be here.
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Preliminary prediction: War for the Planet of the Apes

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Darkest Hour
Victoria & Abdul
Wonder
Predicted: 2 for 3
Reactions: I had the more showy makeup work in Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 in there over the hairstyling work in the Dame Judi Dench film. This is Darkest Hour, easy.
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Preliminary prediction: Darkest Hour

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“The Mystery of Love” – Call Me by Your Name
“Remember Me” – Coco
“Stand Up for Something” – Marshall
“Mighty River” – Mudbound
“This is Me” – The Greatest Showman
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I predicted a couple documentaries to get their songs in there, which is usually how it goes. This is a more star packed group. Mary J. Blige, Oscar-winner Common, Diane Warren, the EGOT winning Robert and Kristen Lopez. I’ll go with Blige.
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Preliminary prediction: “Mighty River”

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I had The Post in there. This category just further cements the strange snub of McDonagh for Director since the movie he created and oversaw got nominated in all of the important categories. The Shape of Water’s music just sounds like an Oscar winning score.
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Preliminary prediction: The Shape of Water

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
Faces Places
Incarus
Last Men in Aleppo
Strong Island
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I had popular choices Jane and City of Ghosts getting nominated. I have not seen any of these, but Faces Places is the definite critical favorite, so for now…I’ll predict that.
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Preliminary prediction: Faces Places

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
A Fantastic Woman
The Insult
Loveless
On Body and Soul
The Square
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I had the Golden Globe-winning In the Fade and Foxtrot getting nominated. This category is always impossible to predict the nominees. This seems like a good group though. The Cannes winner makes a rare appearance.
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Preliminary prediction: A Fantastic Woman

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: The new voting rules allowing every Academy member to vote on this category means we get more The Boss Baby and less Mary and the Witch’s Flower. Kobe Bryant’s Dear Basketball was nominated for Best Animated Short…which is awesome. Coco takes this in a walk.
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Preliminary prediction: Coco


Overall predictions: 83/107; 77.57% (74.77% in 2017)
Without the last 5 categories: 66/82; 80.49% (78.05% in 2017)
On the Big 8 categories: 35/44; 77.77% (83.72% in 2017)


10 COOLEST FIRST TIME NOMINEES
1. Sam Rockwell
2. Jordan Peele
3. Greta Gerwig
4. Kobe Bryant
5. Kumail Nanjiani and Emily V. Gordon
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6. Mary J. Blige
7. Timothee Chalamet
8. Allison Janney
9. Daniel Kaluuya
10. Margot Robbie

10 WORST SNUBS
1. Martin McDonagh for Best Director
2. Armie Hammer for Best Supporting Actor
3. Get Out for Best Editing
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4. Blade Runner 2049 for Original Score
5. The Killing of a Sacred Deer for Best Cinematography
6. Michael Stuhlbarg for Best Supporting Actor
7. Luca Guadagnino for Best Director
8. James Franco for Best Actor
9. Wonder Woman for all technical categories
10. Jessica Chastain for Best Actress


Stay tuned for our 10th Annual Oscar Challenge!



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